Abstract:

The different pandemics that humanity has experienced, such as the Spanish Flu, Asian Flu,
Hong Kong Flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS, Ebola, and Swine Flu, have had a great impact on the
economy, the environment and any human activity, such as livestock, agriculture, tourism,
transport, education, health, fishing, mining, industry, commerce, etc. Currently, humanity is
facing another pandemic, the infection of the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that generates
the disease known as COVID-19. The objective of this document is to analyze and discuss
the effects in agriculture of events related to the disease of COVID-19. For this analysis, data
from the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Health Organization (WHO) and
scientific and technical documents have been used. There is sufficient evidence to affirm that
the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 disease has an important effect on agriculture and the
food supply chain, mainly affecting food demand and consequently food security, with a
great impact on the most vulnerable population.

Introduction:

Currently, the world is going through a critical moment and the phenomenon is a new
emerging virus among the SARS viruses which was named ‘2019 Novel Coronavirus’ by the
World Health Organization. Soon after the first detection, the virus spread from China to 210
countries and territories and on two international transports. The World Health Organization
declared that it was uncontrollable from the first place, spread day by day and took the form
of a global epidemic. Since past epidemics, the world has faced some terrible consequences
and now this coronavirus has created one of these situations, which is called “Quarantine
condition”. Quarantine is a situation that in most cases affects human activity and economic
growth. (Baldwin and Mauro, 2020) reported that the coronavirus outbreak situation has led
to economic decline in countries such as the G7, which have a 5% share in the world's
productive units and a 60% decline in world demand and supply. And 41% of world exports
have been badly affected by this outbreak. In addition to this dire situation in the world
economy, the virus has severely affected agriculture by creating labor shortages that
ultimately make farmers unable to harvest on time. And the consequences of this unbalanced
agricultural production system are inadequate food supply, growing hunger and malnutrition.
Before the Covid-19 incident in early 2020, 135 million people faced extreme hunger, and the
World Food Program (WFP) predicted that this number would reach 265 million by the end
of 2020 (CSIS, 2020). Currently, due to the corona crisis, the World Food Program (WFP)
Covid-19 has predicted food security threats in a variety of situations, and it was expected
that Covid-19 would lead to widespread poverty, poor health care infrastructure, lack of
strong social safety nets, acute hunger, and food insecurity. The decline in food prices and the
most significant recession in the economy.

Covid 19 impact on Agriculture:

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2020A) states that COVID-2019 is affecting
agriculture in two significant ways: food supply and demand. Both of these aspects are
directly related to food security, so food security is also at risk.

Figure 2 allows you to understand the relationship between these elements as well as the
effects of COVID-19.

Figure 1 Food security system (a) without COVID-19 and (b) with COVID-19.

Food supply:

A food supply chain is a network that connects an agricultural system (farm) to a customer's
table with processes such as manufacturing, packaging, distribution and storage. Initially,
announcements of social exclusion caused people to go to supply centres and create shortage
of some products, yet food supply has remained stable because it is a system that must be
maintained to ensure food security. One of the roles of the FAO is to ensure that food price
chains are not disrupted and continue to be promoted. The situation is different for imported
or exported goods; Due to the closure of the border, international trade was hampered,
although after the definition of security protocols to prevent the spread of the virus, trade
remained stable. It can be temporary; It depends on what countries are doing to stop the
spread of the virus.

Part of the food supply system is some social programs that are fed to some countries, mainly
Latin America, with limited economic resources for millions of families and children. This
delivery system is being provided in different ways:

✓ Ration supply of basic necessities of food (for example, Indonesia and Taiwan).
✓ Economic allocation equal to the cost of basic essential food rations (for example,
Peru, Japan and Singapore).

Food transfer barriers are minimal, so food supply remains stable; Although China's
experience in the epidemic is being monitored, the livestock sector is being further affected
by the lack of access to the livestock sector and the lack of labor.

Although it depends on the country and the measures it has taken, global prices remain stable,
therefore, no spike is expected in basic commodity prices, although it is likely to be higher in
high-priced products, especially meat One of those indicators is the FAO Food Price Index, a
measure of the monthly change in the international price of a basket of food products.
According to the FAO, the FFPI in February 2020 averaged 180.5 points compared to
January, a decrease of 1.9 points (1.0%) for the first month in a row for four consecutive
months.

Both supply and demand have suffered, although passability constraints that affect
accessibility have had a greater impact on demand. Availability and cost remain almost
stable. Agricultural systems include producers, raw materials, agricultural machinery and
inputs, processing plants and farm and industrial foods. Uses include people and various
marketing systems.

This was due to sharp fall in export prices of vegetable oil and, to a lesser extent, prices of
meat and cereals, which offset the steady rise in prices of dairy products and sugar.

Food Demand:

Demand refers to the willingness and ability of customers to pay for a particular good or
service over a period of time.
Food demand has declined due to uncertainty and declining spending power, although this
decline is still slight; The situation could get worse if the pandemic continues for a long time
due to reduced income and job losses.

As China represents an important market in world trade and where the Covid-19 disease
originated, its experience shows an increase in online demand in the food and beverage sector
due to quarantine policy. In such a situation when in contact with a virus spreads, customers
prefer non-contact supplies. For example, those who use drones to deliver goods.

Food security:

Food security implies

that everyone has
unrestricted access to
food that allows them
to meet their basic
needs. The figure
refers to the
impending food crisis
with greater impact on
the most vulnerable
populations without
taking immediate
action (Figure 2).
Management should
focus on keeping
global food supply
chains active and
reducing the impact

Figure 2 Groups vulnerable to a food crisis

of the epidemic across the food system. Social programs act as an umbrella that mitigates the
effects of short-term crises.
 ❖ The first vulnerable group:
People who experience chronic hunger and do not consume enough calories to lead a
normal life, currently number about 820 million people. This group of people cannot
afford any potential barriers to their livelihood or access to food 19 can bring with it a
situation. If the virus spreads to countries where such people live and have limited
access to health care, the consequences can be devastating.

❖ The second vulnerable group:

small farmers, who may be prevented from working on their land and entering the
market to sell their produce or buy seeds and other necessary equipment.

❖ The third vulnerable group:

children from low-income families, who are largely fed by food provided by social
programs; Suspension of these programs due to epidemics has put food safety and
nutrition at risk and consequently the survival of children with limited ability to fight
diseases. Thus, each country needs to take its own steps to maintain social food
programs by taking the necessary precautions to avoid virus infection.

Scenario of Bangladesh Agriculture in Covid-19 Situation:

Like many other countries, Bangladesh has been infected with the coronavirus and now the
whole country is locked up. Due to the lockdown situation and zero trade rate, 2 million
people have already lost their jobs in Bangladesh's export-oriented garment industry. Lately,
the most frightening problem arises when there is no trade in the market and almost the whole
country is being fed due to insufficient supply of food. According to a study by BRAC,
extreme poverty is 0% higher than before and 14% of people do not have food at home. The
government and many volunteer groups are trying to raise funds and provide food to the
people, but it is still not enough. Due to the pandemic, a significant number of people in
Bangladesh are dependent on agriculture, but their products are also being disrupted in trade,
creating huge gaps in food supply. Experts suggest that it will take years to recover from this
impending loss, and that more people will be at risk. Still, people have less access to food due
to poor distribution strategies. The food crisis has become a major issue facing Bangladesh
now. The number of patients infected with Covid-19 is increasing every day and the
inadequacy of this food supply is increasing. Thus, this alarming situation presented needs to
be taken seriously but there is not enough literature that has put the food supply situation in
an organized way during the global pandemic.

How COVID-19 Has Affected the Bangladesh Agriculture Industry:

COVID-19 has negatively affected industries worldwide. Measures taken to try to control the
spread of the virus have disrupted business systems and routines. These measures include
global social distance and lockdown. Since the agro-industry has not been spared from the
struggles that the global business market is currently facing, here are some of the ways that
Covid-19 has affected the agro-industry of Bangladesh:

❖ Unemployment:
Covid-19 has led the way in agriculture by evading a number of workers, regardless
of the type and level of employment. Farmers, agriculturists, veterinarians, suppliers,
and even clerks have all been affected by how a particular business has decided to
adapt to the pandemic. Massive layoffs in the workforce result in a huge loss of
business due to low demand for products and services. Maintaining a workforce when
more money is spent than earned leads to displacement of workers.
Despite the negative effects of the unemployment-related pandemic, one can discover
channels that harmonize agriculture with hiring to explore alternatives for workers
who want to return to agriculture.

❖ Restricted Product Access:

As a result of lockdowns in various countries, cross-border trade has become difficult
for the agro-industry. For example, if a particular country relies on its neighbours for
organic fertilizers, the lockdown disrupts the export and import of such fertilizers. It
has a ripple effect, it does not fertilize the grains, causing them to die and die. Another
effect is that farms are forced to look for alternatives, which are not always the best
but the only available option.
Restricted product access means that businesses can go to different strategies to meet
supply needs. For example, if a business provides a box of six different types of crops,
they may have to change their box to include only three crops in the crop they can
 produce without relying on neighbouring countries. Changes in business strategy may
result in loss of clients due to changes in the quality or quantity of products produced.

❖ Lack Of Production:
Depending on the lockdown system in certain geographical areas, agricultural
workers will have to stay at home except when they have to acquire the necessary
things. A complete stay-at-home order means that crop production is very low. Lack
of production at low prices affects the ability of clients to meet demand. If the demand
for a product continues to increase or remains unchanged, the supply only decreases,
its price is bound to increase - such as the supply and demand provision. In this
critical time farmers have to adopt new production methods by analyzing their
existing production methods.

❖ Loss of Income:
There is no income when there is no production depending on the dynamics of
agribusiness. The level of production directly affects income. This means that workers
need to find alternative sources of income to meet their needs during such difficult
times. But it’s hard to do, especially when the place is locked and people are advised
to stay home.

❖ Wastage:
Prior to the Cavid-19, grain production could be much higher in anticipation of a peak
supply season. Sudden changes in dynamics, such as lockdown systems and client
losses, result in huge production losses. Fresh products have to be sold due to low
demand or restrictions on exports.

❖ Uncertainty:
The pandemic makes the future uncertain. Farmers do not know when the border will
be reopened for business. And when these are exposed, they can only hope that their
clients will be able to support their business the way they used to. However, this will
not be the case because their clients have also been financially affected by the
 pandemic. This kind of uncertainty means agriculturists have to move lightly, and
plan carefully for the best and worst possible situations.

Necessary Steps to overcome this Crisis:

Agriculture is a major sector of our economy, and crucial to reducing our food insecurity.
Now agriculture does not only mean rice, vegetables or fruits, it includes fish, poultry,
livestock, etc. Because the world has never felt anything like Covid-19 before, the situation
could be severely damaged in agriculture.

Undoubtedly, the agricultural sector is now going through a major crisis. Only a few of the
problems are due to the disruption of the whole supply chain and the reduction of labor
mobility and transportation due to social distance.

Nowadays, the demand for purchasing power of the people decreases. It is also seen in the
aquatic sector. Cultivated fish like pangas and tilapia were originally bought by middle class
people and they are now fighting to buy it.

The same scene can be seen in the dairy and poultry industries. Since most raw materials are
imported for feed, a barrier to import-export trade creates a crisis in poultry feed.

Here some steps which can help to overcome this situation are stated below:

• The Government of Bangladesh has launched a stimulus package of Rs 5,000 crore

for farmers at an interest rate of 4%, which is indeed very satisfactory news for
agriculture.

• The Department of Agricultural Marketing can play an important role in overcoming

this crisis in both Covid-19 and post-Covid-19 situations. Meanwhile, they are buying
destructive products from farmers and the middle class and distributing them where
needed.

• Although this activity is rare, it still helps. Now is the time to introduce the "Big Data
Concept" in agriculture. We have a clear idea and knowledge in agriculture but lack
of accurate objectionable data because we are lagging behind in this epidemic.
 • A complete database of farms, farmers, products, production, markets, prices, etc.
would facilitate proper evaluation and distribution of stimulus packages provided by
the Government of Bangladesh for agriculture.

• We always complain about farmers not getting a fair price for their produce. The
authority of the Department of Agricultural Marketing should now lead and hold a
strong position, and control the market.

• The department should now start activities at the upazila level at a more
comprehensive level. Relying solely on the central government while neglecting local
government is not a sustainable way to solve problems at all

In addition, ensuring health care and providing the necessary medical assistance to farmers
and people in agriculture must now be a priority. Farmers' health warnings can be spread in
the local media until a remedy is found. The introduction of various economic models for a
sustainable supply chain and market support is what the agricultural sector needs most right
now.

Conclusion:

The uncertain outcome of the coronavirus has made it even more treacherous not only in
Bangladesh but all over the world. As a developing country, we have a large informal
economy with large employment but at this critical time, most of them have become
unemployed which has had a pessimistic effect on their livelihoods. Lack of access to food
has always been a challenge, but this time around we are facing the situation due to the
COVID-19 epidemic. So, to overcome this state, the government should introduce subsidized
transport system for agriculture to keep the supply chain alive. Apart from this, taking some
unneeded food from farmers in the short run and selling it to customers through Trade
Corporation Bangladesh can reduce the chances of food wastage and scarcity. This
government should also keep an eye on paddy harvesting so that it is not affected by rainfall
and other conditions. In the long run, some policies need to be put in place to keep food
supply stable in the future, reduce agricultural production costs and help farmers during and
after the epidemic. In addition, farmers need to ensure uninterrupted treatment to keep them
safe from coronavirus.

Reference:
 https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/facing-covid-19-challenges-with-
agriculture-1593185280

 https://industrytoday.com/how-covid-19-has-affected-the-agriculture-industry/

 https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinion/op-ed/2020/05/06/how-covid-19-has-
affected-agriculture

 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7264623/

 http://www.scielo.org.pe/scielo.php?pid=S2077-
99172020000100003&script=sci_arttext

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341499353_COVID-
19_and_Food_Supply_in_Bangladesh_A_Review