Nacionales, Phiel Daphine

BAC ZGE 1102

The effects of COVID 19 to global food supply chain systems, food security, and
agricultural livelihoods
COVID-19 has negative impacts on global food security. Both lives and
livelihoods are at risk from this pandemic. Though in some countries the spread of the
pandemic has been slowing down and cases are decreasing, in others, COVID-19 is
resurging or continuing to spread quickly. This is still a global problem calling for a
global response. Unless we take immediate action, we risk a global food
emergency that could have long-term impacts on hundreds of millions of children and
adults. This is due mostly to a lack of access to food – as incomes fall, remittances are
lost, and in some contexts, food prices rise. In countries already affected by high levels
of acute food insecurity, it is no longer a food access issue alone, but increasingly a
food production issue. COVID-19 has struck at a time when hunger or
undernourishment keeps rising. According to the latest UN estimates, at a minimum,
an additional 83 million people, and possibly as many as 132 million, may go hungry in
2020 as a result of the economic recession triggered by the pandemic. This would be in
addition to the 690 million people going hungry now. At the same time, 135 million
people suffer from acute food insecurity and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.
When people suffer from hunger or chronic undernourishment, it means that they
are unable to meet their food requirements - consume enough calories to lead a normal,
active life - over a prolonged period. This has long-term implications for their future, and
continues to present a setback to global efforts to reach Zero Hunger. When people
experience crisis-level, acute food insecurity, it means they have limited access to food
in the short-term due to sporadic, sudden crises that may put their lives and livelihoods
at risk. However, if people facing crisis-level acute food insecurity get the assistance
they need, they will not join the ranks of the hungry, and their situation will not become
chronic It is clear: although globally there is enough food for everyone, too many people
are still suffering from hunger. Our food systems are failing, and the pandemic is making
things worse.
According to the World Bank, the pandemic's economic impact could push about
100 million people into extreme poverty. Soaring unemployment rates, income losses
and rising food costs are jeopardizing food access in developed and developing
countries alike and will have long-term effects on food security. Furthermore, the
pandemic may plunge national economies into recession, and countries ought to take
urgent measures to mitigate the longer-term impacts on food systems and food security.
There is a serious concern that producers might not being able to plant this year, or not
plant enough, as normally. If we do not help producers to plant this year, this will
translate into a lack of food later this year and in 2021. Equally urgent is the
compounding threat of the pandemic on existing crises - such as conflict, natural
disasters, climate change, pests and animal diseases - that are already stressing our
food systems and triggering food insecurity around the globe. Recent Integrated Food
Security Phase Classification (IPC) analyses point to a worrying deterioration of acute
food insecurity in countries already suffering from other crises. To avert a food
emergency, there is an urgent need to: protect the most vulnerable, keep global
food supply chains alive, mitigate the pandemic’s impacts across the food system,
protect and even ramp up food production as much as possible, and looking beyond the
pandemic, building back better, more resilient food systems. FAO believes that much
can be done to pull people back from the edge now.
According to the latest UN estimates (SOFI 2020), almost 690 million people
went hungry in 2019 - up by 10 million from 2018, and by nearly 60 million in five years.
High costs and low affordability also mean billions cannot eat healthily or nutritiously.
Across the planet, the report forecasts, the COVID-19 pandemic could tip as many as
132 million more people into chronic hunger by the end of 2020. At the same time, at
the end of 2019, 135 million people across 55 countries and territories were estimated
to be experiencing crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the 2020 Global
Food Crises report released in April. In addition, 75 million children were stunted and
17 million suffered from wasting in 2019. This is the highest level of acute food
insecurity and malnutrition at crisis levels since the first edition of the report in 2017.
More recently, a July 2020 analysis by FAO and WFP identified 27 countries – no
world region is immune - that are on the frontline of impending
COVID-19-driven food crises, as the pandemic's knock-on effects aggravate pre-
existing drivers of hunger. The analysis warns these "hotspot countries" are at high risk
of - and in some cases are already seeing - significant food security deteriorations in the
coming months, including rising numbers of people pushed into acute food insecurity.
This is why, FAO is particularly concerned about the pandemic’s impacts on vulnerable
communities already grappling with hunger or other crises – including the Desert
Locust outbreak in the Horn of Africa and beyond, economic shock/insecurity
in Yemen or the Sahel, for example – as well as countries that rely heavily on food
imports, such as Small Islands Developing States, and countries that depend on
primary exports like oil. For example, The Sudan has recorded its highest ever number
of people experiencing crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, at 9.6 million
people between July and September 2020. (IPC forecast – June-December 2020) In
Somalia, the numbers in crisis or worse are expected to almost triple compared
with pre-COVID-19 estimates (FSNAU, May 2020). In Afghanistan, 13.2 million people
are acutely food insecure (in IPC 3-4), representing an increase of around 1 million
since the implementation of COVID-19-related measures (IPC forecast – May-
November 2020). Also, countries significantly dependent on primary commodity exports
(food, raw materials, fuels) are and will be affected by the significant reduction of
demand from developed countries. Countries in Africa can't export their produces (oil,
cotton, for example) so their revenues will continue falling. Also, it has been harder for
small islands and territories because tourism, their major source of revenue, has been
closed down and will probably continue like this or significantly slow down until a
vaccine or a treatment becomes available. Small islands and territories are also in many
cases oil export-dependent. They also depend on remittances, which have been
reduced by 20%, are vulnerable to climatic shocks, and depend on food imports.
 Vulnerable groups also include small-scale farmers, migrant and informal
workers, pastoralists, and fishers who might be hindered from working their land, caring
for their livestock, or fishing. They will also face challenges accessing markets to sell
their products or buy essential inputs, or struggle due to higher food prices and limited
purchasing power. Informal laborer’s have been hard hit by job and income losses in
harvesting and processing. Millions of children are also missing out on the school meals
they have come to rely upon, many of them with no formal access to social protection,
including health insurance. In addition to agriculture, other sector-specific effects are
also expected – for example, fish provide more than 20 percent of the average per
capita animal protein intake for 3 billion people, more than 50 percent in some less
developed countries, and it is one of the most traded food commodities globally. Thus,
the impact on the livelihoods of fisher communities, food security, nutrition and trade,
especially in those countries, which rely heavily on the fishing sector, is expected to be
significant.
Developing countries are particularly at risk as COVID-19 can lead to a reduction
in labour force, and affect incomes and livelihoods as well as labour intensive forms of
production (agriculture, fisheries/aquaculture). Of particular concern is sub-Saharan
Africa where most of the countries experiencing food crises are, and where the
pandemic is spreading at crucial times for both farmers and herders – when people
need access to seeds and other inputs, and to their farms to plant.
There are implications of the COVID-19 situation now and in the future for food
production, agricultural and fishery/ aquaculture supply chains and market. The food
supply chain is a complex web that involves producers, consumers, agricultural and
fishery inputs, processing and storage, transportation and marketing, etc. At the onset
of the crisis, the food supply chains were strained as many countries-imposed
restrictions on movement of goods and people across and within borders. As a result,
the challenge was not availability of food but easy access to it. Next, anxious over all
the uncertainties linked to food supply, some countries restricted food exports, making
this situation even more challenging. These protectionist measures were partly
introduced to avoid driving up local food prices as weakening of national currencies
made it more advantageous for food producers to export rather than sell domestically.
The resulting food price inflation could have had significant consequences – making
poverty worse and leading to social and political unrest. Fortunately, excessive
protectionism was avoided and many of the initially imposed restrictions have been
removed, with countries adopting overall a restrained and reasonable approach.
Globally, food supply has been adequate, and markets have been stable so far. For
example, global cereal stocks are at comfortable levels and the outlook for wheat and
other major staple crops for 2020 is positive.
However, disruptions to the food supply chains remain, situations vary, and there are
still many unknowns.
Food production: Although reductions in production of high value commodities (i.e.
fruits and vegetables) is already likely, they are not as yet noticeable because of the
lockdowns and disruption in the value chain. In countries already affected by other
crises, FAO’s on-the-ground surveys being undertaken indicate that small-scale
producers are facing mounting challenges accessing inputs – such as seeds and
fertilizers - because of rising prices of these inputs; severely reduced household
incomes; and/or lack of availability of these inputs in markets. While we don’t yet know
the extent of these implications on national production, in some countries like in
Afghanistan, an FAO survey carried out with the Government anticipates a decrease of
over 50 percent of foods such as cereals, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products this
year. Over 1300 people across 18 provinces of Afghanistan participated in the survey,
including: farmers, traders, processors / milling unit owners, and agricultural
staff. Reduced food production may have serious implications for food availability. If
planting is reduced, so too are harvests, which means farming families themselves,
often among the most acutely food insecure, as well as their communities, will not be
able to access sufficient nutritious food down the line. Fisheries and aquaculture: In
the fisheries and aquaculture sector, the implications can vary and be quite complex.
For wild-capture fisheries, the inability of fishing vessels to operate (due to limited or
collapse of market as well as sanitary measures difficult to abide to on board of a
vessel) can generate a domino effect throughout the value chains in terms of supply of
products, in general, and the availability of specific species. In addition, for wild-capture
fisheries and aquaculture, problems in logistics associated with restriction in
transportation, border closures, and the reduced demand in restaurants and hotels can
generate significant market changes – affecting prices. Livestock: The pandemic is
impacting on livestock sector due to reduced access to animal feed and
slaughterhouses’ diminished capacity (due to logistical constraints and labour
shortages) similar to what happened in China. In countries already affected by other
crises, emerging evidence from FAO’s assessments highlights the livestock sector is
particularly vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic. For example, in Zimbabwe,
supplies of animal feed have been disrupted by containment measures and feed
companies’ inability to access raw materials and staff. In Afghanistan, the nomadic
Kuchis have been severely impacted due restricted access to pasture, lack of adequate
fodder/feed and increased prices of the same, coupled with diminished access to
assured veterinary services. Close to one-third reported that their transhumance was
either blocked or limited, resulting in some localized tension. Transport: Blockages to
transport routes are particularly obstructive for fresh food supply chains and have
resulted in increased levels of food loss and waste. Fresh fish and aquatic products,
which are highly perishable and therefore need to be sold, processed or stored in a
relatively limited time are at particular risk. Transport restrictions and quarantine
measures are likely to impede farmers’ and fishers’ access to markets, curbing their
productive capacities and hindering them from selling their produce. Shortages of labor
could disrupt production and processing of food, notably for labor-intensive industries
(e.g. high-value crops, meat and fish). And Markets: The closure of restaurants and
street food outlets removes a key market for many producers and processors that may
produce a temporary glut or trigger upstream production cuts as can be seen in the fish
and meat sectors. In some developing countries, urban supply and demand for fresh
produce are both in decline due to restrictions and aversion behavior by traders and
consumers.