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2.PROBABILITY
Probability 9Ludy of Randomoessand unGextau
SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
Experiment Rocee whose outcome i s 9ubject to uncertainity
SampleSpace ( S)»Set oF allpogsible outcomen.oEan exP:-
Event A collection of oubcome inSample space * *

Relationes rom Get Theory

9et Set of all outcome in SthataNe not. contained in A
DB Set of elements uhich ave in A_co 8 Cov both:.
HnB Set of elements which. arein bothA and
vent A
having no
B are outcome.
AnB= » Mutuallyy
exclugive oY? Disjoint Evente

3.2 AxIOMS, INTERPRETATIONS ANDPROP OF PROBABILITY

PCA) Probability of an EvenE A
ve the_precise meapUTe_of chance that A will
OccUY.

Axiom 1: For any event A PCA) 2 O

Axiom 2: PS=
Axiom 3: TF AA,Ag ie aninfinite collectiono f
disjointeets, then
) = P(A; )
PCA.UAUA
P( =O
P,A) -P(A;)
Fov any event A, PA) + P(A')=

P ov any event A . P(A)e

FoY any twoevents A andB, PCRUB) = P A ) + P(B ) - P(AnB).

PAUBUC) = P(R)+P(B)+P(C) - P(ANB)-P(AnC) - P(Bnc) + PANBNc)

PA) all E;'s

PE,)
in H
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Relative Freguency (No. of timeD the event occurs)

of an Event (Total No. of bials Conducted)
(nR)/n)

qually likely wtcomes

The ovt.come of a Sample 9pace one called
Equally likely f all of them have the Same chance
of occUYinq
Tf there ane N outcomes,
and alt Ehe events ane _equally ikely p= (VN)_

Countinq Techniauen
Product Rule For k-TupleD:
9uppoe a set hap erdered collection of k elements and
that there ane n possible choice foa the Firgt element
n possible choicep for the Gecondelement,
choice for k element
Then here aYe DDa. possible k-Tugle.
Permutation:
An ordered subseE ig a Permutakion. No. of permutations of
Gize k hat can be formedFrom n individualsin a group
will be denoted by Psn
Combination:
An unordered Subeet
Denoted by Cn (or)k)

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Pw. (n!/(n-k)i)
CM.n (o/(K(0-k)!)

2CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conside two events A and
B
Conditional Probabiliky PAIB)is defined ap Probability oF
event A given that event B han occUred

For any kwo events A and , Conditional Probabiliky oF_A

given
GtkyEhat B haD occured i defined by
PAIB) (PCANB)/Pe)_
PAnB) P(AIB). PB)

Baye's 6eorem
The law of total Probabiliky
Let AAa.. Ax be mutuall exclusive
G Exhaustive events
Then Fov any other eyent B_
P(8)=P(BIA,).PA,) +PBIA).P(R)--..
P(B) PLBIR). PCA:)

Baye's Iheorem:
Let AA AK be_collection
of k mutually exclugive and
xhaustive events with_probabili kiep_P(A;). 1hen For any
other
event B for which P(G)0 the po9terioY Probability of A_
given that B ha» occUYed is
P(A;IB) PA NBB) PBIA;). PCA;)
PCB)
P(BIR;). P(A;)
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Collectively Exhaugtive Events

- One oF Ehe eventg muSE OcCUY

- h e set of evente covers the entite sample Space

2-5 INDEPENDENcE
Two events A and B are independent i PCAIB)=P(A).
and ove dependent otherwise.
Multiplication Rule PCAnB)= P(A).P(B)

vents A,A2.R,.... An are mutuall independent

FPA,NA,NA. NAn) =PA,).P(A.).P(A,). - -- PCAn)

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3.DIcRETE RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROB. DISTRIBUTIONS2

3 RANDOM VARIABLEGs
Random Vaniable Any ule that o9eociateD- no. with
each outcome in - S.
Domain Sample Space Range Set of Real no9

benoulli Random Voniable -> Poseible valuen one 0 and.

Discrete Random Voniable Possible valuep ConstiEute_a

Finite 9et cor is countably infinite where there iSafiYSE
element a Gecond element and so on

|ContinvouS Randorm Nani able:

- Set of poseible values congists either of all numbers in a
Gingle interva on the no. line ( ) all| no in a disjoinE
union of Such intervals
No po9sible value_of the voniable haz +ve probability
e PX c) =O for any poseible value C

2:2 Proboability Distribution for Diecrete Random Vaniables

Probability Distribution ofX
Says how total Prob. distibuted among Ehe various
po9sible_ x value
p(x) Piobabilit a9siqned to he value
Probability Distribution/Probabiliky Mapg Function (pmE) of a
diecieke rv is detined for every nox by
p(z P(X =z)= P(all sE S: Xs) =)

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Histoaram
Anothe UGeful vepre»entation of_pmf Pro bability_Histoqram

Porameter of o Probability Distibution

Ipte depende on a auantiky_which determines diff
Probobiliky dstibutionsfor diff value,bth at quantiky is
called o_a Parametey andall Prob distributions fo
diff: value» of the parameker i called Family oF
ProbabilityDistributions
oc if x =O
p o«) =
otherwieGe

Cumulative Distribution Func tion_(cDF)

FX) P(Xe«)z pey
Fz) Prob. that obeerved value of wil be atmo

- P(a xeb) F(b) - F ( a -

IF x tokez integal valuen

P(aeXEb) =F(b) - Fla-)
Takingarb_yieldg P(X a) Fa)- Fla-i)
=

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3Expected Valuep
Expected value fX
Let Xbe a_ diecrete v with eet_of poeible valuep D
and pmf p(x). The expected value or mean value oX
denoted by E(X) oHor jvst p i9
EX) =u =D 2p(2)

Expecked value of a Function

IF Ehe y hona a get of poseible value D_and pmf
Px then the expected value of any func. hix) denoked by
E[hz Or hi)_, is computed by
E [htx]= hx).ptx

ECaX+b) =a E(X)+b

he vaniance of X
Let X have pmf_p(z) and expecked value .
Vaniance of X_denotedby y(X) o ig
VCX)- E(z- p() E(x-u
Standovd Deviakion (SD) o Xis

Shortcut Fomula - Vx) =(*pc*)-p E()-(E

VlaX+b) =*. VCx)

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Moment Generaling Functions

Moment henerating Func. (MGF) ofa Probabiliy
Distibution
is defined by
M) =E(e
EX
which is the Expectation oExp. Func: e
n the discete cane ME) =E(e) a e FX)
n the coninuous code, ME) =E(e**)= _Je" fo)
ds

The Probability Distibution ig Said to possen a

moment Gheneroting Func MCE) if the Function i9 inite
Some
for i n Some interval containing zero Gay JtlT for T>o
M ( dld) MO) =x.e*Fx dx
MCt) = (d/at) Mt) = J*e R d

ME)(a )(M(E) E(xe*

o) =E(X*
M

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Binomial Probability Dietibution (Table A:)

Hee e ane interested in the Probability of qettin9 *9DLE77
-ep in D ErialS, or in
other words, x SUccesse and
n-x) failure, in o
ottempts
We vefer ErialS here o
Bevnoullic Trials
Theye one only two possible Outcome for eoch trial
he Probability oF SUccecs i9 the ame for ench trial:
The out come from diff. triale ae independent
There ave
a fixed no n of Bernoulli Trial_conducted

Rule
he digEribution of conunt variable i9 well-de»cribed by tne
Bino mial distribution if populakion Size is atleavt 20x langer
Ehan Somple Size

Binomial RV X aDsociated with a Binomialexp: conGistingor

a tials i9 defined a x No of S9 amonq n trialg
Becauge_pmf of a Binomial iy X_depends on Ehe
tuwo parameters n andpwe denote pmf by_b(X; n.p

bxo.p)=G)pt-P)* x O, t,
2, -
O otherwise

|Uging Binomial Table

For
Fo X Bin (n.p) the cdF will be denoted by
B,0,P) P(XE x)_Éo by;n.P) x=0,1, ... .n

Mean (X)= np. Vasiance V(X) =np(-p) =npa

MGF M(E) = (1-P+pet)" = (a,+ pey

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3.5
Hypergeometric Distributioo
It is the exacE Prob._mode for no. of_Gs in 9ample.
- Population ha N elements (a finite population)
- Each individual con be choractereed a a SUccesS (S) o
a FailuYe (F) and there ane M Succesge in the_population
- A sample of n individuals is selected uwithout replacement
in Such a way Ehat each Gubset of Sizen isequally
Hkely to be chosen.

X No. of S9 io a Random 9ample_of 9ize n drown_

From population of M Se and (N-M) Fathen the Prob
distribution of Xcalled Hyperqeometric Distributionie
given by
P(X-z) = h(x; n,M,N) »
( ) n - 2)

where z i9 eaticfying max.(o,n- N+M)E T+min-(nM)

Mean ECx) =n (M/N)
Vari ance V(X) =N-)-P(1-p)(N-T (1-

Variancep of Binomial Rv and HypergeomeEvic R differ by

(N-)/(N-1) This is knouwn Finite Populakion Comection Factor
This Factor is neanly l

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Negatve Binomial Distribution
-Experiment Consist9of a eqvence called Indepen dent
brialg
Tach trial Ye>ult in a Guccese L9) OY a Failuye (E).
Prob: ot Succece is. congt. From tria Eo trial
G0 PL9 _on Erial )= p.fFo i ,2 2
Experiment continuep until cceseen have beenObgerved

o interet isx =No: of Foilure that precede yEh GUCCe9G.

X Neqative Binomial RV.

No. of Ss P= PMS)

nb(x1.p)- ).P.0-p x O,1,2 -

E(x)(T(1-P)/p V(x)=((1-p)/p

he Poisson Proboabiltty Ditibution Table A:2)

Theve ig no simple expeviment on which Poieson distribution
i baned
HRandon voniable X is aid to have a Poison distibu
-tion with_pavamekey (A>0) if Ehe pmfof X is
pla) (e*s/:) x =O,l 2
R ate peY unit Eime o) per Unit Avea_
A (/2) ( / 2 ) + . . . = S / s

In Binomial pm if ue let _n- and_P0 i nSUChaway

that np approache toaA>o:Then b(z;n.p) p(z;A)
Tn any Binomial exp whexe n is lange _p i9 smal
b x P ) z p(*;*) uheve A= np. Can be applied Safely i
#n>50 nP < 5.
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IF X hap a Poisson Distibution ith povametey A

then E(X) VX) =

The Poisson Process

The occwrence o events ove1 time_is called a
Poisson
Process the poametey o Gpecifien 1ate for the
process
PCE) (e ot/:)

Mt) = ee-1) YE
ECX) = A. Vx) = A_

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4CONTINUOU9 RANDOMM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DI9TRIBUTIONGS

Probabiliby Density Functions
he random voniable uhose SEt of_poeeible value is an
ioterval i called a Conkinuous Random Vaniable.
POX C) =O_ forany e which i a a possible value of X

Probability Distibution for Continuous Yaniable

X_be a continuouG RY
rob: Density Func. (PDF) ef X ig a func. f() Such that
foY any two
noS o and b_with ab,
P(a+Xb) |f() dx

X takeD valueD on interval [a,b.

Prob. i9 Ehe area below f in that interval.
Fx Density Cune
_For F to be a legitimate pdf Itghould atisfy two cond-
flx) 20 V Rx) dx = Avea under Fx)=
- 0

A continuoue distribution 9aid to be unifoYM the

interval R.B)i the PDE of
Flz,A.8)-"/(B-A Rx£B
otherwiee

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2Cumulative Distibution Function Expected Valuep

Cumulative Distribution Functionni
The CDF
F(2) for_ a continuougTV X ig defined
for eNery no: 2 by
F()=P(xez): Fy2 dy
-00

Fo eachxF(z) i he Area undey f to the left of

F(®?

P(X >a) = I- FCa)

PCaX 4b) = F(b) - FCa)

Obtaining flz) from F(2):_

pdf Fz) CDF F(2)

|Pexcentile of a ContinuousDietibution
The (1ooph percentile of the distribution of a
continuous 1 X denoked by qup)is_defined by
pF(np):|t)d -0

Solve for np)-

Median of a Continuous Distribukion (p)

pthee 50th
percentile

satigfie o5 F#
AE , Half the Area under f is to the left and the
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Expected Value
ECX) =x.F d

EChtx)= hox). FC) dx

Voaiance V(X) =(x- Fy de E((x-p

Standand Deviation N
V(X) = E(x*) - (E(x))

loment Generaking Function

Fo1 continuous DistibuEion,
M) e.F d

Mt) =
E(xe* ) for k1,2,3, -

(K)
M0):E(x*

4-
The Normal Distvibution_
H conbinuouG T X is 9aid to hove a Normal digtribution
with _pavametereg and (or _ and o)where
and O f Ehe _pdf of X ig
)*-**/(2)
F z ,) = - 0o < x <

X ~NP,) inormally distributed with_parameters,_

F x ; , ) dx = ECX) = V(x) = o

he Graph is symmebic abouE and belf-shaped._

Center of the bell is both Mean & the Median
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the dist. of to the infletion pts or Ehe curve.

The Standand Nomal Distribution

Here :o_and o I

FZ;0,1) : ( Va)(e7a
cDE Of z is PCZ4z)= [fly, o.12 dy -o

denoted by oZ)
Shaded Area = cz)

Stondand normal cUTve

(z)

o-))xP}/¢2*)
PlaX-b) =
Cb)-a = ( J a ) ) )

Pevcentiles cf the Standand Normal Distibution

For any p betuween O and i Appendix Table A:3 can be
UGed to obtain the (100p) Percentile of the standard
Normal Distvibution
th
(( 100 ph Pexcentile) + ((ci00P)pevcenile) = o
Z Notation
Z denoten value on the z-Axig for which x of the Avea
under the z cuve lie to the viqht of Z
Z-Urve-

To ghaded Aveo
P 2 7«) = «

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 o Hheo under z cUTve to the ight or2
(-o of the Area lie to itS
left
Z th
*)_peicentile of the gtondazd nonrol digtibut iot
By Symenetiy , Aieo unde tondond Noool Curve to the lelt of
- Z iG olso -J

2 z z CriticalValuen

Non-Standard Novmal Distvibutions

Paxb) -4() o(
o 0 P)th
Pecentile 100p ast)
non

Appoxi maEingBiaemiet
nP np
Pzxx): B(x,oP)= (Avea uncdey CUYV

to teFt of x
XtO S - nP

np
x pon ential
fA) (aeK *
o else
F(x
x 7 b

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G ofm mo

r):x* ed

Dis tib ution

F ,P) pft*

standond p =I

P x x ) :F(x,p)F( Yp

Ci-SuanCd
F X

logn orm a
_enx -/2
J2ToX

P(zé )_

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