] LPGaswire

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Volume 32 / Issue 227 / Novemer 18, 2010

Daily assessments $/mt Northwest Europe

Northwest Europe
Propane
Propane Butane
FOB seagoing +5 880 - 885 +5 905 - 910 CARGOES: Spot prices were slightly high-
FOB ARA 875 - 880 865 - 870
FCA ARA 880 - 885 875 - 880
er Thursday. Product availability was seen
CIF 1-3000mt +5 930 - 935 +5 925 - 930 to be relatively tight in the first half of
CIF 3000+mt +5 930 - 935 +5 December, but according to sources a high
FOB 3000+mt +5 900 - 905 +5 percentage of the demand for that period
CIF 7000+mt +5 890 - 895 +5
had also been covered. Glencore was a
FOB 7000+mt +5 875 - 880 +5
Freight rates ($/mt) 15.00 30.00 buyer of 20.5 kt November 28-30 at
Propane swaps (basis CIF NWE)
$875/mt and December quotes flat/mt
1st month +8 879.00 - 883.00 +8 basis Flushing. Vilma was also a buyer of
2nd month +8 867.00 - 871.00 +8 20.5 kt December 5-10 at $890/mt and
3rd month +6 843.00 - 847.00 +6 December quotes flat/mt basis Flushing.
Quarter +7 825.00 - 829.00 +7
Naphtha COASTERS: After several busy days the
CIF ARA Cargoes 771.25 - 771.75 market paused for breath Thursday. Relaxed
CIF Med Cargoes 765.25 - 765.75
selling interest was reported by sources
West Mediterranean both ex-terminal and ex-refinery, but no firm
FOB Ex-refinery/storage +10 910 - 915 +10 +5 1008 - 1013 +5
demand was seen. Stasco was a seller of
FCA Ex-refinery/storage +10 910 - 915 +10
CIF 7000+mt +10 885 - 890 +10 1,600 mt meeting Portuguese specifica-
tions FOB Fawley November 26-28 at
Daily assessments – Asia $/mt $895/mt, but no deal was said concluded.
Asia: Refrigerated
11:11 Cargoes ARA: Spot activity remained scant Thursday
CFR Singapore-Japan (H2 Dec) 877.00 as German traders continued to report mini-
CFR Singapore-Japan (H1 Jan) 873.00 mal buying interest for spot ARA tonnes. “ I
CFR Singapore-Japan (H2 Jan) 869.00
do not see the demand yet,” remarked one
CFR Singapore-Japan Cargoes 875.00
trader. Some sources, however, believed
Propane Butane
CFR Japan Cargoes (H2 Dec) 856 - 858 896 - 898 more demand might emerge next week with
CFR Japan Cargoes (H1 Jan) 852 - 854 892 - 894 forecasts of colder weather and tighter
CFR Japan Cargoes (H2 Jan) 848 - 850 888 - 890 German refinery availability. Yet again there
CFR Japan Cargoes -11 854 - 856 -11 -16 894 - 896 -16 were no reported FCA or barge deals.
CFR South China Cargoes -14 852 - 854 -13 -19 892 - 894 -18
CFR Taiwan Cargoes -14 853 - 855 -13 -19 893 - 895 -18
CFR North Asia Zone -13 853 - 855 -12 -18 893 - 895 -17 Butane
Asia: Pressurized
CARGOES: Spot prices were marginally
Mixed
CFR Shenzhen -11 875 - 876 -12 higher Thursday. Industry sources contin-
CFR Shanghai -11 871 - 872 -12 ued to report steady buying interest for
Saudi CP Proxy Value For cargoes delivering into Asia: North Sea product and, although the bal-
CFR Japan/Korea Refrigerated 812 - 814 852 - 854 ance of November appeared to be devoid
CFR S China/Taiwan Refrigerated 791 - 793 826 - 828 of spot tonnes, there was said to be both
CFR Shenzhen/Shanghai Pressurized 790 - 792 handy sized and Grangemouth cargoes
Asia Premiums over Saudi CP Proxy Values: available December. Stasco was a buyer of
Propane Butane 8.6 kt of mixed butane CIF Rotterdam
CFR Japan Refrigerated -1 41 - 43 -1 -1 41 - 43 -1 November 27-30 at $930/mt and balance
CFR Korea Refrigerated -1 38 - 40 -1 -1 38 - 40 -1
November quotes flat.
CFR S China Refrigerated -16 60 - 62 -15 -20 65 - 67 -19
CFR Taiwan Refrigerated -16 61 - 63 -15 -20 66 - 68 -19

The McGraw Hill Companies

 LPGASWIRE NOVEMBER 18, 2010

Daily assessments – Asia (cont.) $/mt COASTERS: The coaster market was not
particularly active Thursday. Although the
Propane Butane
availability of good quality tonnes was still
Asia Premiums over Saudi CP Proxy Values:
viewed to be tight, buying interest was also
CFR Shenzhen Pressurized -11 84 - 85 -12
CFR Shanghai Pressurized -11 80 - 81 -12 said by sources to be fairly slim. “It is thin
AG: Refrigerated selling, and thin buying if you do not have
Spot FOB AG Cargoes 805 - 807 845 - 847 the right specification,” observed one player.
Spot FOB AG Monthly Average to Date 802.58 - 804.00 836.75 - 838.17
Saudi Aramco Contract Price 770.00 800.00 ARA: After a period of relative inactivity
Spot FOB AG Saudi CP Proxy Value 812 - 814 852 - 854 the market was busier Thursday with one
FOB AG Spot Premiums over Saudi CP: or two barge deals said done. Petroplus
FOB AG Spot Premium -2 -8 - -6 -1 -2 -8 - -6 -1 was reported to have been a seller of
FOB AG Premium(Dec) -2 -8 - -6 -1 -2 -8 - -6 -1
FOB AG Premium(Jan) -1 - 1 -1 - 1
1,000 mt CIF ARA basis loading November
22-23 and a transaction was said to have
Daily assessments US ¢/gal been concluded for the cargo, albeit on a
US confidential basis.
Non-LDH Mt Belvieu LDH Mt Belvieu Conway
E/P Mix +59.200 - 59.300+ +50.200 - 50.300+ West Mediterranean
Ethane Purity +65.700 - 65.800+
Propane +120.500 - 120.550+ +120.500 - 120.550+ +115.450 - 115.550+
$/mt 627.81 - 628.07
Propane
Normal Butane +163.250 - 163.300+ +163.250 - 163.300+ +156.450 - 156.550+
$/mt 739.52 - 739.75 Although propane imports continued to
Iso-Butane +168.500 - 168.550+ +165.500 - 165.550+ +159.450 - 159.550+ flow into storage at Lavera, there were no
Natural Gasoline +196.550 - 196.650+ +188.950 - 189.050+ signs Thursday of any demand for exports
Non-Targa +196.050 - 196.150+
FOB Lavera.
Targa +196.550 - 196.650+
US LPG alternate hub prices
Butane
Bushton Hattiesburg River
Propane +115.950 - 116.050+ +124.450 - 124.550+*
Natural gasoline +196.050 - 196.150+**
According to trading sources Thursday
there was still some limited demand for
NYMEX
Lavera butane, but spot availability of com-
Natural gas DEC ($/MMBtu) 4.01
Light sweet crude Mmm ($/bbl) 81.85 mercial grade product remained tight.
NYMEX light sweet crude*
Nevertheless, almost 15,000 mt of butane
Dec 81.90 was said to be loading at Lavera prior to
Jan 82.47 the end of this month, although about half
Feb 83.11 of this quantity was reported to be chemi-
Note:*Platts assessments of crude oil futures values prevailing exactly at 3:15 pm Eastern Time follow: cal-grade product.
US propane swaps
Q1 2011 121.95 - 122.05 DEC 120.45 - 120.55 FEB 121.45 - 121.55
Q2 2011 107.70 - 107.80 JAN 120.95 - 121.05 Arab Gulf
* Hattiesburg product is for in pipe. ** River means on barges in various points of Mississippi River in Louisiana
Note: Spot prices exclude terminaling Saudi Aramco has maintained the volume
of term butane exports for December, its
Monthly rolling averages $/mt North Asia-based term customers and
other trade sources said Thursday. The
Propane Butane
Europe FOB Seagoing 831.79 - 836.79 move to maintain the export volumes for
Europe CIF 7000+MT 853.14 - 858.14 December comes after three consecutive
Arab Gulf 802.58 - 804.00 836.75 - 838.17 cuts — 20% for September, 25% for
October and 20% for November. Saudi
Postings/contracts $/mt
Aramco will, however, not be allowing the
Propane Butane
usual 10% tolerance on the plus side for
FOB N Sea:PPAP*/PBAP** (eff NOV 1 ) 762.02 763.60
FOB Algeria (eff NOV 1 ) 770.00/770.00*** 835.00 its butane exports in December. LPG suppli-
FOB Saudi Arabia**** (eff NOV 1 ) 770.00 800.00 ers typically provide a 5-10% plus/minus
*Platts propane average price. **Platts butane average price. ***Propane at Bethioua and Skikda respectively. tolerance on nominated volumes. Aramco’s
**** Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Qatar posted the same prices as Saudi Arabia.
decision came as a pleasant surprise to

Copyright © 2010, The McGraw Hill Companies 2


the market, which had expected the compa-
ny to press on with a cut for December too.
“The market was expecting as usual, a 20-
25% cut; to that end, it seemed like a wel-
come relief,” said a Western trade source.
Asia
REFRIGERATED: Asian LPG values were
dragged lower by a slump in front-month
crude futures values Thursday. Even so,
prices of CFR propane cargoes for second-
half December delivery slipped $10/mt to
$857/mt from its Tuesday settle, lagging the
$17/mt drop in crude. CFR butane cargoes
were assessed $15/mt lower at $897/mt.
Saudi Aramco’s decision to maintain the level
of term butane exports for December, after
three consecutive months of pressing a vol-
ume cut on its term customers, will likely
help narrow the butane-propane spread,
which widened to a near 17-month high of
$45/mt Tuesday, trade sources said. The
last time the butane-propane spread, which
was assessed at $40/mt Thursday, settled
higher was on June 24, 2009, when it
touched $50/mt. In the spot physical mar-
ket, both Statoil and Vitol bid for 22,000 mt
of propane for second-half December delivery
at $866/mt and $868/mt, respectively.
Meanwhile, despite the slide in crude from
Tuesday, Statoil made a strong bid for an H2
December delivery evenly split cargo at
$895/mt, at which level Glencore sold the
Norwegian trader a similar cargo Tuesday. BP
offered a similar cargo at $905/mt, but no
trade was reported.
Americas
US NGL prices rebounded Thursday with
rising crude oil and gasoline futures. Platts
assessed December crude at $81.90/bar-
rel, up $1.55 from Wednesday. Gasoline
futures led the rally, with December RBOB
trading up to $2.2415/gal in reaction to
tightening of gasoline supplies, according
to analysts. The ethane/propane mix to
purity ethane price spread for Mont Belvieu
widened by a half-cent to 6.5 cents under
ethane, according to market sources.
Purity ethane traded up by 75 points, as
petrochemical demand for light-end NGLs
remained strong, market sources said. In
LPGASWIRE
the Platts Market on Close assessment
process, ConocoPhillips sold 25,000 bar-
rels of natural gasoline to Lukoil at 196.10
cents/gal for November, non-Targa. Lukoil
did not re-bid its position, and Shell raised
its bid to 191.05 cents/gal.
News
Thailand's October crude imports
down 4.2% year-on-year
Thailand's crude oil imports fell 4.2% year-on-
year in October to 755,000 b/d with a value
of Baht 58.3billion ($1.94 billion), the
Department of Energy Business said
Wednesday. Compared with a month earlier,
crude imports decreased 4.8%, said Peerapol
Sakarin, the department's director-general.
Imports of refined products totaled 57,000
b/d valued at Baht 3.56 billion, he added.
However, local consumption has been growing
and the department forecasts that imports
will surge to an average of 890,000 b/d in
the last two months of the year. The signifi-
cant increase of consumption will lift this
year's imports to 832,000 b/d, up 3.6% from
2009 when imports were 803,000 b/d, he
said. Meanwhile, Thai exports of refined prod-
ucts fell 6% month-on-month 253,190 b/d in
October and from 231,200 a year earlier.
Export value fell 12% month-on-month to
Baht18.5 billion as the Thai baht appreciated.
Imports of liquefied petroleum gas totaled
1.29 million mt in the first 10 months, includ-
ing 127,000 mt brought in October. The
amount is projected to soar to 130,000 mt in
November, compared with the previous fore-
cast of 110,000 mt because the sixth gas
separation plant was not fully operational.
Imports are forecast to drop significantly to
88,000 mt in December when the sixth gas
plant will be operating at the full capacity, he
added. Local consumption of gasoline slid 1%
from September to 20.1 million liters a day
while diesel usage was down 0.4% to 46.6
million liters. LPG consumption decreased 1%
to 15,800 mt a day while natural gas for vehi-
cle increased 2% to 5,400 mt/d. Gasohol
use continues to grow especially gasohol E85
which is up 12% month-month in October to
8,000 liters from 7,000 liters. E20 gasohol
use rose 4% to 400,000 liters a day, Peerapol
Copyright © 2010, The McGraw Hill Companies
NOVEMBER 18, 2010
said. Standard diesel consumption amounted
to 28.1 million liters a day and 17.7 million
liters a day for B5 diesel.
Vietnam's PV Gas, partners begin
construction of LPG import facility
The gas unit of state-owned PetroVietnam, PV
Gas, held a ground-breaking ceremony
Wednesday to kick off with its partners the
construction of an LPG receiving terminal and
storage facility to raise the country's gas
import capacity, according to a report in the
Saigon Giai Phong newspaper. The LPG proj-
ect will allow local gas companies to import
about 1 million mt of LPG from Australia, the
Middle East and elsewhere, the newspaper
said. VinaBenny JSC, the joint venture han-
dling the $245 million investment, was
formed in 2008 between PV Gas, Japan's
Marubeni and local company Vietlong. Calls
and emails to PV Gas and one of the contrac-
tors on the project did not immediately yield
further details. Saigon Giai Phong quoted the
Gas Association of Vietnam as saying local
LPG yearly demand tripled from 2000 to
2010, rising to 1.2 million mt from 400,000
mt. It is estimated that local demand for LPG
will reach 1.5 million mt by 2015 and 2 mil-
lion mt by 2020. Also, it is expected that
Vietnam will have to import over 60% of its
total demand, or more than 1.2 million mt, by
2020. However, limitations of current LPG
facilities mean that Vietnam can't take in
large shipments and must take the fuel in
smaller lots from such regional countries as
China and Singapore. Of the existing 31 LPG
storage facilities, only four have capacities of
over 3,000 mt, said the newspaper. At pres-
ent, locally made LPG, mostly from the Dinh
Co Gas processing plant and Dung Quat oil
refinery, satisfies about 40% of the total
demand. Total storage capacity of the
VinaBenny project is 84,000 mt of LPG,
including a refrigerated propane tank of
34,000 mt, a refrigerated butane tank of
34,000 mt and eight pressurized LPG tanks
of 2,000 mt each. The port and receiving
facility will be able to handle ships of up to
60,000 mt. The project is in Long An
province, about 25 km from Ho Chi Minh City.
The new facility is designed by JGC Project
Services of Japan. South Korea's Daewoo
Engineering and Vietnam's PetroVietnam
3
 LPGASWIRE NOVEMBER 18, 2010

Construction are the main contractors. Chu
Thi Trung, deputy finance manager of PV Gas,
said PetroVietnam's gas unit is also building
another gas import facility that has a storage
capacity of 60,000 mt and is expected to be
ready for operation by late 2010.
FOB butane prices at France's
Lavera reach over $1,000/mt
Spot prices for butane at the French
Mediterranean port of Lavera have reached
over $1,000/mt with refineries in the area
still returning to normal output levels after
recent strike action, sources said. Spot FOB
butane prices in the west Mediterranean
have been climbing steadily over the last few
weeks. Since the beginning of October, prices
have increased by over $300/mt, rising from
the low $690s/mt up to a last published
level of $1,005.50/mt. Although the strike
action that affected France's refineries in
October finished around two weeks ago,
industry sources said the availability of com-
mercial grade butane is still limited, as the
refineries at Lavera struggle to return to nor-
mal production. As a result, stocks of com-
mercial grade product are reported to be at
low levels, leaving any demand for FOB
butane to be mainly covered by the more
expensive chemical grade butane. "In the
commercial cavern there is not a lot of prod-
uct available," said one industry source. Total cut; to that end, it seems like a welcome
was a buyer Wednesday in the Platts Market relief," noted a Western trade source. "At
on Close assessment process of 2,000 mt such a high price level, it really doesn't mat-
of butane FOB Lavera for November 22-26, ter though," observed a source at a North
and it bid all the way up to $1,006/mt before Asian refiner, an end-user of the petrochemi-
a deal was concluded with SHV. This is the cal cracker feedstock. Amid tight availability,
highest spot FOB price for butane in the West Platts assessed prices of CFR butane car-
Mediterranean area since the middle of July goes for delivery 30-45 days forward has
2008, according to Platts data. surged from $838/mt at the beginning of
the month to $912/mt Tuesday. The butane-
Saudi Aramco maintains term propane price spread has also widened
butane export volume for December from $30/mt to $45/mt during the same
period. Platts reported August 19 — when
Saudi Aramco has maintained the volume Aramco slashed September volumes -- that
of term butane exports for December, the the move to trim butane exports was due to
Middle Eastern oil giant's North Asia-based the need to divert the product to the
term customers and other trade sources domestic petrochemical industry. A source
said Thursday. The move to maintain the close to the company said "Saudi Kayan
export volumes for December comes after Petrochemical Company needed to raise
three consecutive cuts, 20% for September, butane inventory levels during the startup of
25% for October, and 20% for November. its integrated petrochemical steam cracker
Saudi Aramco will, however, not be allowing complex in the Jubail Industrial City. Butane
the usual 10% tolerance on the plus side volume would be reduced for December
for its butane exports in December. LPG too," he added. The petrochemical complex
suppliers typically provide a 5-10% centers around a naphtha- and LPG-fed
plus/minus tolerance on nominated vol- steam cracker, which has a nameplate
umes. Aramco's decision also comes as a capacity of 1.33 million mt/year of ethylene.
pleasant surprise to the market, which Saudi Arabia's state oil company exports
anticipated the Middle Eastern oil giant to approximately 8.5 million mt/year of LPG, or
press on with a cut in butane volumes on a little over 700,000 mt/month, with most
its term customers for December too. "The of it on a term basis to customers in the
market was expecting as usual, a 20-25% East of the Suez.

]
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LPGaswire
Volume 32 / Issue 227 / November 18, 2010

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