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Daily assessments – Asia (cont.) $/mt $850/mt and balance December quotes
plus $3/mt, but no deal was concluded.
Propane Butane
Asia Premiums over Saudi CP Proxy Values:
COASTERS: Spot activity remained scant
CFR Shenzhen Pressurized -5 24 - 26 -5
CFR Shanghai Pressurized -5 20 - 22 -5 Tuesday with no confirmed public deals.
AG: Refrigerated Although refinery availability remained thin
Spot FOB AG Cargoes 881 - 883 881 - 883 there was also said to be little demand
Spot FOB AG Monthly Average to Date 898.50 - 900.00 927.10 - 928.60 within Northwest Europe apart from the
Saudi Aramco Contract Price 905.00 945.00 possibility of gasoline blending at relatively
Spot FOB AG Saudi CP Proxy Value 897 - 899 897 - 899 low delivered price levels.
FOB AG Spot Premiums over Saudi CP:
FOB AG Spot Premium -6 -17 - -15 -5 -6 -17 - -15 -5 ARA: According to sources Tuesday some
FOB AG Premium(Jan) -6 -17 - -15 -5 -6 -17 - -15 -5
FOB AG Premium(Feb) -1 - 1 -1 - 1
mixed butane was on offer, and there were
also indications of iso rich product becom-
Daily assessments US ¢/gal ing available from Flushing following main-
tenance on the hydro cracker. “There is a
US
lot of product offered,” remarked one trad-
Non-LDH Mt Belvieu LDH Mt Belvieu Conway
er. However, with no prompt demand seen
E/P Mix -57.200 - 57.300- 53.450 - 53.550
Ethane Purity -65.200 - 65.300- for MTBE production buying interest again
Propane +129.600 - 129.700+ +129.600 - 129.700+ +124.600 - 124.700+ appeared to be mainly confined to gasoline
$/mt 675.22 - 675.74 blending.
Normal Butane -171.000 - 171.100- -170.000 - 170.100- -169.950 - 170.050-
$/mt 774.63 - 775.08
Iso-Butane -176.000 - 176.100- -176.000 - 176.100- -170.950 - 171.050- West Mediterranean
Natural Gasoline -208.350 - 208.450- 204.450 - 204.550
Non-Targa -207.600 - 207.700- Propane
Targa -208.350 - 208.450-
US LPG alternate hub prices The market remained inactive Tuesday with
Bushton Hattiesburg River very limited demand for exports from
Propane +125.100 - 125.200+ +132.100 - 132.200+* Lavera, apart from a small 1,600 mt cargo
Natural gasoline -207.600 - 207.700-**
for Barcelona loading at the end of this
NYMEX week. “There is no drastic change,” said
Natural gas JAN ($/MMBtu) 4.26 one player.
Light sweet crude Mmm ($/bbl) 88.28
NYMEX light sweet crude* Butane
Jan 88.13
Feb 88.68
Mar 89.28 There were still no firm signs Tuesday of
Note:*Platts assessments of crude oil futures values prevailing exactly at 3:15 pm Eastern Time follow: any upturn in spot demand for Lavera
US propane swaps butane, but there were indications of spot
Q1 2011 127.95 - 128.05 JAN 130.05 - 130.15 MAR 125.90 - 126.00 product available for FOB sale. “Butane is
Q2 2011 112.50 - 112.60 FEB 127.95 - 128.05 there at Lavera,” commented one industry
* Hattiesburg product is for in pipe. ** River means on barges in various points of Mississippi River in Louisiana source. A cargo of about 6,000 mt was
Note: Spot prices exclude terminaling
reported to be loading at Lavera, but no
Monthly rolling averages $/mt other vessels were currently said to be
nominated for exports.
Propane Butane
Europe FOB Seagoing 1012.90 - 1017.90
Europe CIF 7000+MT 994.50 - 999.50 Arab Gulf
Arab Gulf 898.50 - 900.00 927.10 - 928.60
Iran’s Petrochemical Commercial Company,
Postings/contracts $/mt
or PCC, has so far sold 176,000 mt of
Propane Butane
mixed refrigerated LPG, in four 44,000-mt
FOB N Sea:PPAP*/PBAP** (eff DEC 1 ) 867.14 893.64
FOB Algeria (eff DEC 1 ) 925.00/925.00*** 985.00 cargoes, for December loading, a source
FOB Saudi Arabia**** (eff DEC 1 ) 905.00 945.00 familiar with the matter said Tuesday. All
*Platts propane average price. **Platts butane average price. ***Propane at Bethioua and Skikda respectively. four cargoes comprised product in a 3:1
**** Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Qatar posted the same prices as Saudi Arabia.
propane-butane ratio, and were sold on an
FOB basis. The first two cargoes, which Americas gas field contains roughly half of Iran's
were for loading from Bandar Imam total natural gas reserves, which BP's lat-
Khomeini or Assaluyeh over first-half Propane prices continued moving upward est Annual Statistical Review estimates at
December, were sold via private negotia- as winter weather kept demand high 29.61 trillion cubic meters, and is being
tions to a South Korean trader and a Tuesday, but other NGL prices retreated. developed in 28 phases, several of which
European trader at a low single digit premi- Mont Belvieu propane strengthened as are running behind schedule. Phases 11-
um to Saudi Aramco’s December LPG sources said there is more demand along 24 have are being managed by domestic
Contract Price, said a trading source. The the US Gulf Coast with the region?s contractors after Western oil companies
other two cargoes, which were sold via ten- pipelines feeding the Northeastern US. “It pulled out of Iran for fear of incurring
ders, were for loading from Bandar Imam has been cold in the [northern US states],” penalties due to international sanctions
Khomeini or Assaluyeh over December 20- a broker said, adding that light-end NGLs against Tehran over its controversial
30 and December 25-30, said the first demand in the USG is supported by petro- nuclear program. Phases 1-8 have been
source. The pricing details or names of the chemical companies running ethane, completely developed and phases 9 and
buyers for the H2 December cargoes could propane or a mix of the two. Conway 10 are yet to reach their full production tar-
not be confirmed. The Iranian LPG produc- propane was heard traded at 5 cents gets. The Iranian government has set the
er sold at least 264,000 mt of mixed under Mont Belvieu, according to trade full development of South Pars as a priority
refrigerated LPG in six 44,000-mt cargoes sources. Crude oil futures prices slipped and has issued a series of bonds to
for November loading. from Monday, with the Platts January crude finance the projects. The development of
assessment down 35 cents to each project that regularly covers two
$88.13/barrel. There were no trades dur- phases in one package requires an invest-
Asia
ing the Platts Market on Close assess- ment of around $4.5 billion. Vakili, whose
REFRIGERATED: The Asian trading day saw ment process. Bids and offers for non-LDH company is in charge of all South Pars oil
a trickle of activity Tuesday, with most of it propane for December were at 129-131 and gas projects, said contractors awarded
confined mostly to the paper market. cents/gal. Normal butane bids and offers projects would be paid fully in advance in
January CFR North Asia propane swaps were at 170-172.50 cents/gal, December order to accelerate orders of equipment
were heard traded at $934/mt, while non-LDH. Natural gasoline, December non- and procurement. "We may be behind
January CFR North Asia/Contract Price Targa, was bid at 207.25 cents/gal, versus schedule by 1-10%, which is insignificant,"
propane swaps were heard traded at an offer at 207.85 cents/gal. Vakili said, adding that phases 22-24 were
$36/mt. Total was the only participant in ahead of schedule. "Phases 20 and 21
the spot physical market, offering 22,000 match the timetable but we are behind
News
mt of evenly split LPG for second-half schedule in phase 14. We should also
January delivery at a premium of $38/mt Iran says to match Qatar gas change the location of phase 19 and build
to Saudi Aramco’s January contract price. the project from the beginning," he said.
production by 2014
Meanwhile, the lack of demand from both Vakili put the value of products per phase
the West and Far East, including Japan, at around $9-$10 million per day. A signifi-
South Korea and China, continued to put a Just as Qatar celebrated reaching mile- cant byproduct of rising gas production is
dampener on sentiment. Butane values stone LNG production of 77 million an increase in the volume of condensates,
slumped, outpacing the drop in propane mt/year on Monday, Iran announced that it which makes gas projects more viable
prices, and bringing the butane-propane would complete all remaining phases of its because it is a high value product. "Each
spread to parity, or a $10/mt drop on the giant South Pars gas field, a geological year, $100 billion will be injected into the
day. Even so, Indian demand for the prod- extension of Qatar's North Field, by 2014 national economy after the South Pars gas
uct remained steadfast. State owned IOC and match Qatar's gas production. "All field is fully developed," he said. The
came to the spot market to buy via tender phases of the South Pars gas field will South Pars gas field holds 14 trillion cubic
up to 160,000 mt of butane in seven to become operational in March-early April meters of gas, 18 billion barrels of gas
eight cargoes, each of 13,000 mt or 2014," said Ali Vakili, managing director of condensates. Each phase will typically pro-
20,000 mt, for January. IOC had previously state-run Pars Oil and Gas Company duce 25 million cu m of natural gas
sought to buy via tender up to 120,000 mt (POGC), was quoted as saying by official 80,000 barrels of gas condensates and
of refrigerated butane in five to six cargoes news agency IRNA. "After completion of 400 mt of sulfur per day as well as 1 mil-
each of 13,000 mt or 20,000 mt for the remaining phases within the next three lion mt of ethane and 1.05 million mt of
January. A lack of offers amid tight supply years, Iran's exploitation of gas in terms of LPG per year. Some of the single phases
for butane, however, led the state-owned volume will be equal to Qatar?s," he said, like phase 12 will produce as much as
refiner to secure only 20,000 mt of the adding that each phase is designed to go three typical phases. OPEC oil producer
product. on stream within 35 months from the start Iran at one point had three LNG projects
of development. The offshore South Pars planned but had to drop two after foreign
consortia led by Total and Shell failed to November data indicate that OECD stocks 30, said the first source. The pricing
commit to the projects as a result of the fell by 8.4 million barrels, broadly in line details or the names of the buyers for the
sanctions. A third LNG project, Iran LNG, is with the five-year average draw of 10.9 H2 December cargoes could not be con-
being developed by Iran without outside million barrels. SUPPLY While the IEA also firmed. The Iranian LPG producer sold at
and is due to come on line by 2014. Qatar raised its 2015 supply estimates from least 264,000 mt of mixed refrigerated
forged ahead with developing its gas both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, the oil LPG in six 44,000mt cargoes for
reserves, estimated at 25.36 trillion cubic market is still expected to tighten over the November loading. All six cargoes were
meters, and is now the world's largest pro- coming four years. OPEC crude production sold on an FOB basis, at premiums of
ducer and exporter of LNG at 77 million capacity is expected to increase 2.1 mil- $25-40/mt to Saudi Aramco's November
mt/year of capacity, which was marked at lion b/d to 36.9 million b/d by 2015, CP, a Tehran-based source familiar with the
a lavish ceremony at Ras Laffan industrial 150,000 b/d higher than estimated six matter said earlier. For October loading,
city on Monday. months ago. Non-OPEC supply will contin- PCC sold at least 176,000 mt of mixed
ue to grow through 2015, reaching 54.0 refrigerated LPG in four 44,000 mt
Oil demand stood ‘giddy’ 3.3 mil b/d million b/d, and overall supply is seen parcels.
higher year-on-year in Q3: IEA 1.47 million b/d higher in 2015 than pre-
dicted in June. Growing demand for fuels Iran's NIOC likely to sell only one
The International Energy Agency Friday will increase the demand on OPEC crude 44,000 mt LPG cargo for December
raised its forecasts for global oil product with the IEA raising its 2011 "call" on
demand for 2010 and 2011 by 130,000 OPEC by 100,000 b/d to an estimated The National Iranian Oil Co., or NIOC,
b/d and 260,000 b/d, respectively, to 29.5 million b/d. "With a 'call on OPEC which sold, through private negotiations
reflect the impact of recent cold weather crude and stock change' breaking through 132,000 mt of mixed refrigerated LPG in
and stronger signals of OECD demand 32 million b/d by 2015 in the base case, three 44,000 mt cargoes for November,
recovery. In its latest monthly oil market this is likely to see a narrowing in the mar- will likely have only one 44,000 mt parcel
report, the IEA also updated its medium- gin of spare capacity from recent 5 million for December loading, a Tehran-based
term market outlook, raising its six month- b/d levels to around 3.6 million b/d in source familiar with the matter said late
old, base-case demand scenario by 1.45 2015, symptomatic of a tightening, and Monday. "Based on the current bearish
million b/d in 2015. Global oil demand is potentially more jittery, market," the IEA market sentiment, I think they'd prefer to
now estimated at 87.4 million b/d for said. Weaker demand growth, however, wait," said the source adding that the com-
2010, 2.9% higher year-on-year, rising to could leave OPEC spare capacity flat pany has postponed placing a 44,000 mt
88.8 million b/d in 2011, a 1.5% demand around recent 5 million b/d levels through first half December-loading mixed refriger-
growth on the year. Oil demand is now 2015, the IEA said. ated LPG cargo to the second half of
seen rising to 93.4 million b/d in 2015, December. Spot FOB propane prices have
equivalent to 1.6% average per year Iran's PCC sells 176,000 mt of slumped from a record high of $926.5/mt
growth, the IEA said, with the demand refrigerated LPG for December on December 6 to $883.5/mt Monday,
baseline for 2010/2011 around 1.1 mil- while that of butane has dropped from
lion b/d higher than it anticipated in June. Iran's Petrochemical Commercial $961.5/mt to $898.5/mt, during the
The IEA said its oil pricing assumptions of Company, or PCC, has so far sold same period. The highest that FOB
a $75-85/b range for 2010-2015 remain 176,000 mt of mixed refrigerated LPG, in propane prices reached before December
unchanged. The IEA said global oil product four 44,000 mt cargoes, for December 6 was on July 4, 2008, when it settled at
demand increased by a "giddy" 3.3 million loading, a source familiar with the matter $921/mt, while the highest price on record
b/d year-on-year during the third quarter, said Tuesday. All four cargoes comprised for butane is $966/mt, also on July 4,
driven by a strong rebound in the OECD product in a 3:1 propane-butane ratio, and 2008. The Iranian LPG producer typically
markets and colder winter weather. were sold on an FOB basis. The first two comes to the spot market to sell at least
China's preliminary data show that appar- cargoes, which were for loading from two 44,000 mt cargoes per month, for
ent oil demand rose by 12.6% year-on-year Bandar Imam Khomeini or Assaluyeh over loading in the first half and the second
in October, with all product categories the first half of December, were sold via half, respectively. "Although they'll now
except LPG featuring strong gains, the private negotiations to a South Korean have two [44,000 mt] cargoes for the sec-
agency said. The demand jump has sup- trader and a European trader at a low sin- ond half [December], the approaching win-
ported crude prices in recent weeks, and gle digit premium to Saudi Aramco's ter and the [current] cold weather in the
surplus refining capacity helped absorb December LPG Contract Price, said a trad- North could just lead to [NIOC] absorbing
the surge in gasoil demand, the IEA said. ing source. The other two cargoes, which one of the cargoes into the domestic sys-
Although OECD industry stocks built by a were sold via tenders, were for loading tem," added the source. The state oil com-
counter-seasonal 700,000 barrels to 2.74 from Bandar Imam Khomeini or Assaluyeh pany sold 88,000 mt of mixed refrigerated
billion barrels in October, preliminary over December 20-30 and December 25- LPG in two 44,000-mt cargoes for October.
]
Editorial contacts:
LPGaswire
Volume 32 / Issue 245 / December 14, 2010
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