UNIVERSITY OF DAR-ES-SALAAM

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (CoET)

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND GEOTECHNICAL
ENGINEERING (TGE)

GROUP ASSIGNMENT

DEGREE PROGRAMME: BSc IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

YEAR OF STUDY:

COURSE INSTRUCTOR: Dr. BWIRE

DATE OF SUBMISSION:
 PARTICIPANT

S/No. NAME REGISTRATION

NUMBER
1 MFINANGA, WILFRED GILBERT 2018-04-03699

2 MORRISI, BRIAN F 2018-04-03568

3 KOMU, MAJALIWA LIBERATY 2018-04-03513

4 SUNDAY, SUNDAY NOEL 2018-04-03691

5 TUVANA, JACOB F 2018-04-03637

6 MATEMBA, CLINGTON F 2018-04-07892

7 CHISANZA, FESTO ATHANAS 2018-04-03705

8 NDABACHAHE, DAUD M 2018-04-03704

9 MSINGWA, EMMANUEL 2018-04-03600

10 SHILUNGA, DAVID PAUL 2018-04-01956

11 MBANO, SALMA ALLY 2018-04-03678

12 2018-04-0

13 2018-04-0

14 2018-04-0

15 2018-04-0

16 2018-04-0

17 2018-04-0

18 2018-04-0

19 2018-04-0

20 2018-04-0
 1. Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation planning
process, widely used for forecasting travel demands. It predicts the number of trips
originating in or destined for a particular traffic analysis zone. In this assignment, you
are required to develop production and attraction regression models and determine
trip productions and trip attractions after 10 years (2030) for each zone. Growth rates
assumed on country aspects after 10 years are given in Table 1. Submit all calculation
process.

Table of growth rates of different variables after 10 years

Variable Growth rate

Population 4.50%
Income level 10%
Land price 25%
Employment 2.5%

Answer:
Trip generation is total number of trip production from/or attraction to specific zone. Trip
generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation planning process,
widely used for forecasting travel demands. Trip production is home end of an HB trip or as
the origin of NHB trip, it is home or movement that generated by NHB movement. WHILE
the trip attraction is non home end of a HB trip or the destination of NHB trip.
Trip generation usually uses zone base data to model the amount of movement that occurs
such as land use, vehicle ownership, population, employment, population density, income and
also mode of transportation used. There are four form model for calculate trip generation.
Form of trip generation models
1. Growth factor modelling
2. Trip-rate analysis
3. Cross-classification model
4. Regression model

In this assignment, we are required to develop production and attraction regression models
and determine trip productions and trip attractions after 10 years (2030) for each zone. The
following are calculation of trip production and trip attraction after 10 years by using
regression model.
From zone data the factor which based on trip production are Population and Income. While
for trip attraction are Employment and land value in the zone.
TABLE OF ZONE BASED DATA

land price (in

Income per
zone population hundred TZS per Employment
person(TZS/Person/day)
SQM)
1 186039 103.5 98410 1931
2 473490 192.5 207202 2133
3 376925 146 153789 1980
4 451756 220.5 200848 4898
5 484981 197.5 177655 4920
6 284057 101.5 105783 3753
7 487491 65.5 165183 3202
8 525673 52 201377 3164
9 325121 128.75 128368 5280
10 311260 72 74546 4735

First step
Calculation of population and income after 10 years for production

• For population
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 (1 + 𝑥)𝑟

Where P – Population after 10 years

PO – Existing population
X – growth rate
r – year
x = 4.5%, r = 10 years

𝑃 = 𝑃𝑂 (1 + 4.5%)10

• For income
𝐼 = 𝐼𝑂 (1 + 𝑋)10
Where I – Average zonal income after 10 years
Io – Existing Average zonal income
X – growth rate
r – year
x = 10%, r = 10 years

𝐼 = 𝐼𝑂 (1 + 10%)10
Table of Population and average zonal Income after 10 years for production

Existing after 10 years

zone average zonal
population population Average zonal income
income per person
(X1) (X1) per person (X2)
(X2)
1 186039 1931 288913 5009
2 473490 2133 735316 5532
3 376925 1980 585353 5136
4 451756 4898 701564 12704
5 484981 4920 753161 12761
6 284057 3753 441132 9734
7 487491 3202 757059 8305
8 525673 3164 816354 8207
9 325121 5280 504903 13695
10 311260 4735 483378 12281

Second step
Calculation of employment and land price after 10 years for attraction
• For employment
𝐸 = 𝐸𝑜 (1 + 𝑥)𝑟
Where E – Employment after ten year
EO – Existing employment
x- growth rate
r – 10 years

𝐸 = 𝐸𝑜 (1 + 2.5%)10

• For land price

𝐿 = 𝐿𝑜 (1 + 𝑥)𝑟
Where L – Land price after 10 years
Lo – Existing land price
X – growth rate
r – 10 years

𝐿 = 𝐿𝑜 (1 + 𝑥)𝑟
Table of Employment and Land price after 10 years for attraction

Existing after 10 years

zone land price (in
employment employment land price (in hundred
hundred TZS per
(X1) (X1) TZS per SQM) (X2)
SQM) (X2)
1 98410 103.5 125973 964
2 207202 192.5 265236 1793
3 153789 146 196863 1360
4 200848 220.5 257103 2054
5 177655 197.5 227414 1839
6 105783 101.5 135411 945
7 165183 65.5 211448 610
8 201377 52 257780 484
9 128368 128.75 164322 1199
10 74546 72 95425 671

Calculation for total trip per person per day of production and attraction

• For trip production

Assumed
Trip rate Low family Medium family Higher family
10.4 9.35 7.5

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = Ʃ(𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 × 𝑓𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛/𝑑𝑎𝑦
= ((𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 × 𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)
+ (𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 × 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑓𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)
+ (ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 × ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)) ÷ 6

Where Average persons per household = 6

TOTAL TRIPS/PERSONAL/DAY FOR PRODUCTION

Zone % of Population trip/person/day total
Lower Medium Higher lower medium higher trip/person/day
Zone 1 152552 31626 1861 264424 49284 2326 316034
Zone 2 369322 97066 7102 640158 151261 8878 800297
Zone 3 307194 64077 5654 532470 99853 7068 639391
Zone 4 85834 343335 22588 148779 535030 28235 712044
Zone 5 101846 349186 33949 176533 544148 42436 763117
Zone 6 124985 147710 11362 216641 230182 14203 461026
Zone 7 260808 219371 7312 452067 341853 9140 803060
Zone 8 289120 226039 10514 501141 352244 13143 866528
Zone 9 45517 253594 26010 78896 395184 35513 509593
Zone 10 74702 217882 18676 129883 339533 23345 492761
For attraction
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = Ʃ(𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 × 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)
Assumed trip rate for employment = 4.5

TOTAL TRIPS/PERSON/DAY FOR ATTRACTION

zone employment trip rate (for total
(X1) employment) trip/person/day
1 98410 4.5 442845
2 207202 4.5 932409
3 153789 4.5 692051
4 200848 4.5 903816
5 177655 4.5 799448
6 105783 4.5 476024
7 165183 4.5 743324
8 201377 4.5 906197
9 128368 4.5 577656
10 74546 4.5 335457

REGRESSION EQUATION FOR TRIP PRODUCTION AND TRIP ATTRACTION

Trip Production= a0 + (a1 ×Forecasted Population) + (a2 ×Forecasted Income)

Trip Attraction= b0 + (b1 ×Forecasted Employment) + (b2 ×Forecasted Land Price)
Summary output

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999687999
R Square 0.999376095
Adjusted R Square 0.999168126
Standard Error 4391.457393
Observations 9

Significance
df SS MS F
F
Regression 2 1.85344E+11 92672065718 4805.42 2.4286E-10
Residual 6 115709388.2 19284898.04
Total 8 1.8546E+11

Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper Lower Upper

Error 95% 95.0% 95.0%

Intercep 68690.56915 10088.88194 6.808541276 0.00049 44003.9644 93377.17 44004 93377

t
X1 1.614204793 0.017981138 89.77211488 1.3E-10 1.57020653 1.658203 1.57021 1.658
X2 -16.92226809 1.29884909 -13.02866378 1.3E-05 -20.100437 -13.7441 -20.1 -13.74

a0 = 68690.57, a1 =1.614205, a2 = - 16.92227

Summary output

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square 1
Standard Error 0.272332139
Observations 9

ANOVA
Significance
Df SS MS F F
Regression 2 3.47437E+11 1.73719E+11 2.3E+12 2.10096E-36
Residual 6 0.444988763 0.074164794
Total 8 3.47437E+11

Standard Lower Upper

Coefficients t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Error 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 0.263255446 0.34380694 0.765707191 0.47289 -0.57800983 1.104521 -0.578 1.104521
X1 4.500001817 2.34578E-06 1918342.091 1.4E-36 4.499996078 4.500008 4.5 4.500008
X2 -0.002074882 0.001736028 -1.195189354 0.27711 -0.006322788 0.002173 -0.0063 0.002173

bo = 0.263255, b1 = 4.5, b2 = -0.002075

Regression equations
Yproduction = 68690.57 + 1.614205X1 – 16.92227X2
Yattraction = 0.263255 + 4.5X1 – 0.002075X2

Trip for production and attraction after 10 years

After 10 years
production attraction
Zone trips/person/day trips/person/day
1 450292 566877
2 1162027 1193559
3 926658 885881
4 986178 1156960
5 1068502 1023359
6 616047 609348
7 1150200 951515
8 1247572 1160009
9 651957 739446
10 641139 429411