LEYSON, KENDRICK O.

BSCE 3C
CE 43: ASSIGNMENT #1
ITEM 1:
a. Trip Generation Model
Y = 408.70945(x)
The trip generation model is using GRDP as the parameter to forecast future trip
generation, as it has the highest correlation with the number of trips generated. Among the
various socioeconomic parameters considered for the model, the Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP) was selected as the parameter to forecast the future values of the trip
generation. The reason for selecting GRDP is that it provided the highest r-squared value result
after doing the regression analysis, which means that it has a strong correlation with the number
of trips generated. Regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between GRDP
and trip generation, and two regression models were developed, one with an intercept and one
without. The latter was chosen as the better model because the first model had a huge negative
intercept, which was unrealistic. Therefore, the regression model without an intercept was
selected as the more accurate and realistic model to forecast future trip generation.
All values are shown in Appendices 1

b. Trip Attraction Model

Y = 405.90484(x)
In this case, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) was chosen over the population
and area parameters due to its stronger correlation with the number of trips attracted. This
choice was supported by the higher r-squared value result obtained for the GRDP parameter
when compared to the other parameters. To establish the relationship between GRDP and trip
attraction, two regression models were developed, one with an intercept and one without. The
model with an intercept had a negative value which was unrealistic, as it suggested that there
is a negative trip value even when the value of GRDP is zero. The huge negative intercept
could lead to negative values if the x-values are small, which is not possible in reality.
All values are shown in Appendices 2

Summary
The regression equation for the trip generation model is y = 408.70945(x), where 'y' is
the number of trips generated and 'x' is the value of the GRDP parameter. This equation implies
that for every unit increase in the GRDP, there will be an estimated increase of 408.70945 trips
generated. Similarly, the regression equation for the trip attraction model is y = 405.90484(x),
where 'y' is the number of trips attracted and 'x' is the value of the GRDP parameter. This
equation implies that for every unit increase in the GRDP, there will be an estimated increase
of 405.90484 trips attracted.
 It is important to note that these regression models are specific to the data used and may
not be applicable in all cases. The models were developed based on the specific socioeconomic
parameters and other variables used in the analysis. However, they provide useful insights and
can be used to estimate the number of trips generated or attracted in similar situations where
the same parameters and variables are present.

ITEM 2: Estimated trip generation and trip attraction for 2015

Table 2.1. Tabulated unbalanced values forecasted Trip Generation and Trip Attraction
Unbalanced
TRIP-G (2015) TRIP-A (2015)
2,266,609 2,251,055
32,431 32,209
64,073 63,634
14,211 14,113
134,674 133,750
147,667 146,653
197,345 195,991
69,615 69,138
489,908 486,546
3,416,533 3,393,089

The table above presents the predicted values for both trip generation and trip attraction,
which were derived using their corresponding regression models. However, the resulting values
are unbalanced due to the unequal totals of each column.
Table 2.2. Tabulated balanced values forecasted Trip Generation and Trip Attraction

Balanced
TRIP-G (2015) TRIP-A (2015)
2,266,609 2,266,609
32,431 32,431
64,073 64,073
14,211 14,211
134,674 134,674
147,667 147,667
197,345 197,345
69,615 69,615
489,908 489,908
3,416,533 3,416,533
The estimated trip generation and trip attraction calculation is shown in Appendices 3.
 ITEM 3: Estimated 2015 OD Table

O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O
Luzon 2031348 7036 62428 7257 70931 757 13599 65046 11275 2266609
Palawan 5766 13732 699 0 10047 0 2073 0 114 32431
Mindoro 64037 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 10 64073
Masbate 12546 0 0 0 0 0 1634 30 0 14211
Panay 57153 10179 0 0 0 21357 40015 0 5970 134674
Negros 1214 0 0 0 38424 34785 72519 0 724 147667
Cebu-Bohol 5699 1991 0 7413 12941 96050 56848 3625 12779 197345
Samar-Leyte 64263 71 0 0 56 0 2563 140 2523 69615
Mindanao 5222 0 205 0 5495 203 14477 344 463961 489908
D 2247249 32812 63484 14438 136131 153133 203053 69138 497094 3416533
Table 3.1. Tabulated values forecasted Trip Generation and Trip Attraction

The table displayed above depicts the outcomes of the estimated 2015 Origin-
Destination (OD) Table, which was determined by applying the Fratar Method. To obtain a
desirable level of accuracy in the estimation, a total of six (6) iterations were conducted, aiming
to prevent the error in the estimation from surpassing 5%.
The iterations are shown in Appendices 4

ITEM 4: Proposed Inter-Island RORO link:

Island Pair 1: Negros & Cebu-Bohol
Estimated number of trips: 168569

Island Pair 2: Luzon & Samar-Leyte

Estimated number of trips: 129309

Island Pair 3: Luzon & Mindoro

Estimated number of trips: 126465

The identification of the three island pairs is based on the evaluation of the total number
of trips between them, including trips to and from each other. The pairings are determined by
selecting the pairs that have the highest number of trips, taking into account both directions of
travel.
The process is shown in Appendices 5
Appendix
Appendices 1
Trip Generation Regression Models

POP(2004) Generated Trips WITH INTERCEPT WITHOUT INTERCEPT

42.64 1295251
0.82 267 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
1.62 9372 Multiple R 0.954105902 Intercept -89111.88612 Multiple R 0.946917113 Intercept 0
0.72 1028 R Square 0.910318072 POP(2004) 29203.00509 R Square 0.89665202 POP(2004) 26000.41932
3.83 2306 Adjusted R Square 0.897506368 Adjusted R Square 0.77165202
3.96 41351 Standard Error 135508.4157 Standard Error 148635.9656
4.71 25352 Observations 9 Observations 9
3.73 33699
19.49 169996

AREA Generated Trips WITH INTERCEPT WITHOUT INTERCEPT

116.52 1295251
17.03 267 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
12.59 9372 Multiple R 0.700835728 Intercept -55277.02857 Multiple R 0.75099012 Intercept 0
4.15 1028 R Square 0.491170718 AREA 6118.638582 R Square 0.56398616 AREA 5525.023023
12.72 2306 Adjusted R Square 0.41848082 Adjusted R Square 0.43898616
13.85 41351 Standard Error 322774.968 Standard Error 305297.3604
10.49 25352 Observations 9 Observations 9
23.33 33699
128.63 169996

GRDP(2004) Generated Trips WITH INTERCEPT WITHOUT INTERCEPT

3056.01 1295251
43.56 267 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
86.06 9372 Multiple R 0.994087868 Intercept -49365.24076 Multiple R 0.990157213 Intercept 0
18.54 1028 R Square 0.988210689 GRDP(2004) 431.7529073 R Square 0.980411307 GRDP(2004) 408.7094515
181.35 2306 Adjusted R Square 0.986526502 Adjusted R Square 0.855411307
198.79 41351 Standard Error 49131.27215 Standard Error 64710.63252
265.53 25352 Observations 9 Observations 9
104.33 33699
731.17 169996

Appendices 2
Trip Attraction Regression Models

POP(2004) Attracted Trips WITH INTERCEPT WITHOUT INTERCEPT

42.64 1285288
0.82 291 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
1.62 1495 Multiple R 0.95462798 Intercept -87174.97672 Multiple R 0.947908913 Intercept 0
0.72 70 R Square 0.911314581 POP(2004) 28989.16573 R Square 0.898531308 POP(2004) 25856.19041
3.83 2504 Adjusted R Square 0.898645235 Adjusted R Square 0.773531308
3.96 55819 Standard Error 133693.5656 Standard Error 146308.1395
4.71 10215 Observations 9 Observations 9
3.73 49609
19.49 173331

AREA Attracted Trips WITH INTERCEPT SUMMARY OUTPUT

116.52 1285288
17.03 291 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
12.59 1495 Multiple R 0.703817111 Intercept -54436.24353 Multiple R 0.754154214 Intercept 0
4.15 70 R Square 0.495358526 AREA 6096.337248 R Square 0.568748579 AREA 5511.750813
12.72 2504 Adjusted R Square 0.423266887 Adjusted R Square 0.443748579
13.85 55819 Standard Error 318915.6739 Standard Error 301625.2713
10.49 10215 Observations 9 Observations 9
23.33 49609
128.63 173331

GRDP(2004) Attracted Trips WITH INTERCEPT WITHOUT INTERCEPT

3056.01 1285288
43.56 291 Regression Statistics Coefficients Regression Statistics Coefficients
86.06 1495 Multiple R 0.993370657 Intercept -47436.46401 Multiple R 0.989883663 Intercept 0
18.54 70 R Square 0.986785263 GRDP(2004) 428.0479487 R Square 0.979869667 GRDP(2004) 405.9048366
181.35 2504 Adjusted R Square 0.984897443 Adjusted R Square 0.854869667
198.79 55819 Standard Error 51607.60021 Standard Error 65167.03073
265.53 10215 Observations 9 Observations 9
104.33 49609
731.17 173331
Appendices 3
Trip Distribution

Generation Model Rounded Off

y = 408.70945(x) 2015 Unbalanced Balanced
R² = 0.9804 GRDP TRIP-G (2015) TRIP-A (2015) TRIP-G (2015) TRIP-A (2015)
5,545.77 2,266,609 2,251,055 2,266,609 2,266,609
Attraction Model 79.35 32,431 32,209 32,431 32,431
y = 405.90484(x) 156.77 64,073 63,634 64,073 64,073
R² = 0.9799 34.77 14,211 14,113 14,211 14,211
329.51 134,674 133,750 134,674 134,674
361.3 147,667 146,653 147,667 147,667
482.85 197,345 195,991 197,345 197,345
170.33 69,615 69,138 69,615 69,615
1,198.67 489,908 486,546 489,908 489,908
3,416,533 3,393,089 3,416,533 3,416,533
Appendices 4
Iteration 1
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2003157.743 23748.023 58653.450 10441.916 73555.389 1615.820 20246.270 62723.882 12466.113 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 2708.376 22713.137 311.951 5089.121 1546.791 61.718 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64000.916 61.511 10.953 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 11751.511 2431.430 27.886 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 36198.761 22701.696 31172.006 40261.181 4340.207 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 750.792 25618.569 49559.092 71224.168 514.103 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 3058.644 3762.440 5996.949 7489.863 118793.864 48467.585 1903.870 7872.143 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 62414.304 242.678 58.557 3954.372 132.922 2812.648 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 4506.732 168.051 5114.054 404.548 19846.982 290.250 459577.139 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2188547.779 73167.973 59133.452 16438.865 116925.554 201606.841 207978.780 65078.810 487655.025 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.036 0.443 1.084 0.864 1.152 0.732 0.949 1.070 1.005

Iteration 2
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2007438.939 10185.321 61495.687 8734.427 81977.569 1145.189 18589.154 64924.086 12118.235 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 4415.580 15848.054 532.095 9227.304 2310.457 97.604 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64019.238 43.515 10.628 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 11921.687 2259.921 29.220 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 44701.522 11997.949 27223.894 45551.482 5199.005 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 852.528 32351.698 39798.718 74097.515 566.265 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 3868.637 2036.661 6331.207 10535.528 106262.489 56165.272 2487.208 9658.356 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 62905.511 104.678 65.635 3651.485 138.371 2749.800 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 4648.771 181.360 5866.717 295.123 18756.781 309.239 459849.765 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2204772.414 40172.663 62209.142 15065.634 140024.452 174768.927 221382.065 67888.125 490249.658 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.028 0.807 1.030 0.943 0.962 0.845 0.891 1.025 0.999
Iteration 3
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2017455.544 8038.122 61918.003 8054.067 77076.732 945.898 16199.177 65082.874 11838.189 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 5091.715 14350.615 614.719 9954.463 2310.180 109.403 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64027.280 35.768 10.332 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 12179.145 2001.907 29.775 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 49732.834 10482.047 24892.974 43943.548 5622.447 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 978.703 34746.088 37550.605 73759.431 631.897 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 4516.474 1867.147 6781.835 11507.063 101959.379 56856.632 2896.363 10960.465 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 63442.470 82.902 61.929 3193.248 139.199 2695.732 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 4803.504 187.747 5671.288 250.628 16805.442 318.723 461870.425 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2222227.670 34820.833 62720.469 14835.902 139017.563 165635.252 215069.566 68466.934 493738.890 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.020 0.931 1.022 0.958 0.969 0.892 0.918 1.017 0.992
Iteration 4
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2023913.972 7363.379 62213.606 7587.885 73440.731 829.420 14619.786 65086.626 11553.201 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 5422.851 13956.243 655.723 10069.479 2213.448 113.350 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64032.063 31.266 10.052 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 12353.916 1826.803 30.108 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 53129.254 10225.183 23243.910 42232.384 5843.120 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 1080.360 36429.176 36230.692 73247.928 678.568 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 5026.038 1897.314 7087.464 12162.317 99173.418 56920.318 3213.040 11865.450 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 63813.322 76.143 59.163 2889.508 139.574 2637.770 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 4950.649 193.801 5551.512 225.774 15581.666 327.457 463076.897 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2233722.424 33518.262 63063.131 14675.349 137712.379 159734.480 209531.840 68796.805 495778.409 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.015 0.968 1.016 0.968 0.978 0.924 0.942 1.012 0.988
Iteration 5
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2028280.212 7036.324 62427.517 7256.718 70930.965 757.263 13598.984 65045.595 11275.028 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 5626.666 13807.811 681.238 10069.166 2131.682 114.532 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64035.106 28.486 9.789 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 12469.120 1711.404 30.304 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 55489.929 10183.201 22117.003 40940.732 5942.986 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 1157.346 37610.308 35359.641 72831.537 707.892 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 5412.285 1948.170 7283.320 12622.176 97294.180 56892.080 3450.335 12442.811 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 64073.485 72.900 57.251 2692.901 139.753 2579.190 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 5090.549 199.532 5501.445 211.502 14871.198 335.774 463697.757 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2241634.697 33048.407 63308.288 14540.038 136791.310 155768.074 205670.519 69001.762 496769.985 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.011 0.981 1.012 0.977 0.985 0.948 0.960 1.009 0.986
Iteration 6
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2031348.273 6839.142 62580.334 7024.879 69168.025 711.043 12924.272 64999.240 11013.398 2266608.607 2266608.607 1.000
Palawan 5765.932 13732.279 698.751 10046.735 2072.927 114.470 32431.095 32431.095 1.000
Mindoro 64037.125 26.708 9.548 64073.380 64073.380 1.000
Masbate 12546.313 1634.090 30.424 14210.828 14210.828 1.000
Panay 57152.785 10179.043 21357.086 40014.926 5970.012 134673.851 134673.851 1.000
Negros 1214.370 38424.457 34784.688 72518.769 724.440 147666.724 147666.724 1.000
Cebu-Bohol 5699.008 1990.879 7412.934 12940.942 96050.126 56847.788 3625.048 12778.632 197345.358 197345.358 1.000
Samar-Leyte 64262.810 70.959 55.908 2562.978 139.855 2522.970 69615.481 69615.481 1.000
Mindanao 5222.322 204.889 5495.268 203.425 14477.320 343.701 463960.832 489907.756 489907.756 1.000
D 2247248.939 32812.303 63483.974 14437.812 136131.336 153133.077 203053.071 69138.268 497094.300 3416533.080
D' 2266609.516 32431.108 64073.406 14210.833 134673.905 147666.784 197345.437 69615.509 489907.953 3416533.080
1.009 0.988 1.009 0.984 0.989 0.964 0.972 1.007 0.986
Iteration 6 Rounded Off
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O O'
Luzon 2031348 7036 62428 7257 70931 757 13599 65046 11275 2266609 2266609
Palawan 5766 13732 699 0 10047 0 2073 0 114 32431 32431
Mindoro 64037 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 10 64073 64073
Masbate 12546 0 0 0 0 0 1634 30 0 14211 14211
Panay 57153 10179 0 0 0 21357 40015 0 5970 134674 134674
Negros 1214 0 0 0 38424 34785 72519 0 724 147667 147667
Cebu-Bohol 5699 1991 0 7413 12941 96050 56848 3625 12779 197345 197345
Samar-Leyte 64263 71 0 0 56 0 2563 140 2523 69615 69615
Mindanao 5222 0 205 0 5495 203 14477 344 463961 489908 489908
D 2247249 32812 63484 14438 136131 153133 203053 69138 497094 3416533
D' 2266609 32431 64073 14211 134674 147667 197345 69615 489908 3416533

Appendices 5
O/D Luzon Palawan Mindoro Masbate Panay Negros Cebu-Bohol Samar-Leyte Mindanao O
Luzon 2031348 7036 62428 7257 70931 757 13599 65046 11275 2266609
Palawan 5766 13732 699 0 10047 0 2073 0 114 32431
Mindoro 64037 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 10 64073
Masbate 12546 0 0 0 0 0 1634 30 0 14211
Panay 57153 10179 0 0 0 21357 40015 0 5970 134674
Negros 1214 0 0 0 38424 34785 72519 0 724 147667
Cebu-Bohol 5699 1991 0 7413 12941 96050 56848 3625 12779 197345
Samar-Leyte 64263 71 0 0 56 0 2563 140 2523 69615
Mindanao 5222 0 205 0 5495 203 14477 344 463961 489908
D 2247249 32812 63484 14438 136131 153133 203053 69138 497094 3416533

Island Pair Total Trips

Cebu-Bohol & Negros 168569
Luzon & Samar-Leyte 129309
Luzon & Mindoro 126465