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Energy efficiency could curb demand by almost 10 percent (1,750 Energy efficiency continues to be a mostly untapped resource
Mtoe, under the IEA New Policies Scenario) by 2040, decreasing (figure 3). Although industrial productivity has improved dramatically
energy intensity by about 1.8 percent per year, still short of the over the past few decades, substantial gains remain available
2.4 percent required to contain long-term increases in the global through the adoption of cost-effective measures, global best
temperature to 2°C or less.
“Increased global The challenge is daunting. According to the World Bank and IEA
commitments are already (2015), the rate of improvement in energy intensity from 2010–12 Figure 2. “Avoided energy use” resulting from energy efficiency in
is almost a full percentage point slower than the objective of the 11 IEA countries
beginning to pay off. In
international Sustainable Energy for All initiative, which calls for a
180
2011, energy savings in 2.6 percent average annual improvement for the period 2010–30. Hypothetical energy use had
demand by an amount to pay off. In 2011, energy savings in 11 OECD countries reduced 120 to 65% of 2010 TFC 3,000
Exajoules
100
demand by 1,337 Mtoe—more than the total energy consumption of 2,500
that exceeded the total 80
the European Union (IEA 2014c). 60
1,500
energy consumption of the 1,000
40
European Union.” 20
TFC 500
0
Figure 1. The multiple benefits of energy efficiency 0
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2008
100
Public Energy 80
budgets delivery
60
percent
Energy efficiency
improvment 40
Resource Energy
management prices
20
0
Macro-
Local air Industry Transport Power generation Buildings
economic
pollution
impacts
Realized energy efficiency potential
Unrealized energy efficiency potential
Employment Industrial
productivity Note: These energy efficiency potentials are based on the IEA New Policies Scenario outlined
Health and
in the World Energy Outlook 2012. Investments are classified as “economically viable” if the
Poverty
well-being alleviation
payback period for the up-front investment is equal to or less than the amount of time an
investor might be reasonably willing to wait to recover the cost, using the value of undiscounted
fuel savings as a metric. The payback periods used were in some cases longer than current
averages, but they were always shorter than the technical lifetime of individual assets.
Source: IEA 2014b.
Source: IEA 2012.
3 W h y E n e r g y E ff i c i e n c y M a tte r s a n d H o w t o S c a l e It U p
Table 1. How can energy efficiency help tackle today’s global challenges?
Development
challenge Energy efficiency can … Costs and opportunities—examples
Infrastructure … mitigate impacts of supply In Turkey, a seven-hour blackout in March 2015 resulted in an estimated US$700 million loss in
bottlenecks and constraints by better managing production.
“Through energy efficiency, shortfalls system peak loads and easing
demand during shortages, minimizing The United States has saved 150 GW in peak demand over the past 30 years through refrigerator
Russia could eliminate productivity losses. efficiency standards alone.
almost 800 million tons of Fiscal constraints … ease fiscal limits through reduced Energy accounts for 8 percent of Serbia’s fiscal deficit due to energy subsidies, direct transfers to
energy and fuel subsidies, fiscal state-owned energy utilities, and guarantees for utility borrowing.
CO2 per year—equal to the transfers to distressed public utilities,
and energy costs for publicly owned An initial evaluation of the European Union’s advanced buildings directive expects €30–40
total energy consumption billion in direct benefits to the public budget. The addition of tax revenues and reduction of
assets (e.g., buildings and street
of France.” lighting). unemployment benefits increases the estimate to €67–128 billion.
Energy security … enhance energy security by easing Vietnam’s energy consumption has tripled over the past decade, making it one of the most
the need for energy imports, making energy-intensive economies in East Asia. It has, as a result, become increasingly reliant on
local energy resources last longer, and imported coal after having been virtually energy independent (1997–2007).
reducing volatility in energy supply
and prices. Japan has replaced half of its missing nuclear power capacity since the March 2011 earthquake,
tsunami, and subsequent nuclear disaster at Fukushima, solely with energy efficiency measures.
Economic growth, … develop new industries from Small and medium-sized enterprises, which constitute over 80 percent of industrial firms in India,
competitiveness, the reduction of energy waste (e.g., face high and rising electricity costs coupled with supply shortages (about 10 percent overall; 17
and jobs energy service companies), improving percent at peak times), undermining their global competitiveness.
industrial productivity and creating
employment opportunities. A study on the impacts of energy efficiency programs in Canada shows a net increase of
Can$234–580 billion in GDP, with 1 dollar of spending yielding 5 to 8 dollars in GDP and the
creation of 30–52 jobs.
Poverty reduction … lower overall energy bills and the The lack of cost-reflective tariffs cost countries in Europe and Central Asia 0.5–1 percent of GDP.
percent of household income devoted Effective social assistance programs and energy efficiency could alleviate these losses.
to energy, thereby decreasing energy
poverty. An electricity connection regularization program in the slums of Sao Paolo, Brazil, promoted
energy efficiency measures and formal connections. Nonpayment was reduced by 67 percent
and customer energy use by 40 percent.
Environmental … reduce local and global pollution in Russia is the third largest energy-consuming country, but it is more energy-intensive than the top
stewardship a most cost-effective manner. 10 energy-consuming countries. Through energy efficiency, it could eliminate almost 800 million
tons of CO2 per year—equal to the total energy consumption of France.
China has embarked on one of its most ambitious energy efficiency programs. From 1980–2010,
energy intensity declined by 70 percent, resulting in CO2 emission reductions of 24.4 billion tons.
Energy access … support reductions in energy losses Under a national grid extension initiative, Rwanda is distributing more than 900,000 compact
that increase energy access or lower fluorescent lamps to new household connections, enabling it to reduce the load on the grid and
upfront costs for off-grid energy connect to more homes.
services.
Sources: Media reports and technical studies available from the author upon request.
4 W h y E n e r g y E ff i c i e n c y M a tte r s a n d H o w t o S c a l e It U p
practices, and available technologies. The building sector, which What have we learned?
represents almost 40 percent of global energy demand, can still meet
more than 80 percent of its potential through improved building
The past two decades have yielded valuable lessons
codes and deep retrofits. Tapping into these cost-effective measures to countries at all levels of development—but more
will require an additional investment of US$3.8 trillion by 2035, with systematic evaluations are needed
“Many energy efficiency simple payback periods of two to eight years.
Despite challenges, governments have continued to promote energy
improvements have not efficiency with varying degrees of success. These initiatives have
been made because of Why has energy efficiency been difficult to achieve? yielded valuable lessons, some of which are being incorporated into
systemic barriers that Market failures and implementation barriers new policy and program designs or have already been operational-
have so far prevented energy efficiency from ized and promise improved performance.
prevent the realization
The lessons learned are first summarized in bullet form, followed
of energy efficiency’s reaching its potential by details on each point.
potential.” Energy efficiency investments are generally profitable and cost-ef- • Policies must be accompanied by enforcement and
fective, with energy savings repaying investment costs over time. implementation.
However, many energy efficiency improvements have not been • National targets and reporting improve accountability.
made owing to market failures—systemic barriers that prevent the • Programs should be designed for implementation at scale.
realization of energy efficiency’s potential. Those barriers include: • Simpler program and business models are needed.
• Poor market incentives, including low energy pricing that makes • Incentives must drive markets.
investments in energy efficiency less attractive and encourages
overconsumption. Paper policies are insufficient. An expanding list of countries
• Weak capacity and governance of energy efficiency agencies, have developed commendable policy frameworks backed by sound
which inhibits their ability to influence changes in policies and secondary regulations. Governments must urgently shift to policy
markets, deliver effective programs, and be accountable for implementation and enforcement to realize the gains these policies
results. represent. For example, since 2007, China has substantially stepped
• Lack of data on energy use, baselines, and systematic evalua- up its enforcement of energy-saving building codes through: (i)
tions of programs, costs, and impacts. strong regulatory support, including the deployment of “acceptance
• Absence of international consensus on the most-effective codes” at a building’s commissioning phase; (ii) stable government
policies and approaches for scaling up energy efficiency (e.g., budgets for implementation and enforcement agencies; (iii) trans-
regulations, incentives, or market-based mechanisms), the parent management of the certification of third-party companies;
appropriate role of government and public financing, and how (iv) clear rules and responsibilities for noncompliance; and (v) an
cultures and behaviors can be changed. effective national program for inspections (Bin 2012).
National targets focus attention. Broad energy efficiency
Thus, on-the-ground results and expanding policy targets have legislation and frameworks are useful when establishing institu-
substantially lagged behind the tremendous potential for energy tional mandates, a legal infrastructure, funding mechanisms, and
efficiency. But circumstances are beginning to change. initial obligations. However, national targets are better at holding
policies, institutions, and programs accountable for results because
they usually require evaluations of policies and programs. The
ensuing assessments make it possible to adjust those that are
5 W h y E n e r g y E ff i c i e n c y M a tte r s a n d H o w t o S c a l e It U p
not performing. In 2008, India launched the National Mission on this approach is often too complex for use in emerging markets.
Enhanced Energy Efficiency, which called for annual savings of at ESCOs cannot succeed if they are undercapitalized, if clients are
least 23 Mtoe by 2015. Turkey’s 2012 National Energy Efficiency only marginally creditworthy, if accounting and legal systems are
Strategy calls for a 20 percent reduction in energy intensity by 2023 underdeveloped, and if data are insufficient or unreliable. Until the
(compared with 2011 levels). Both countries are now improving their market can develop organically, ESCOs should have simple business
“National-level programs monitoring and evaluation systems to better assess impacts and models and modest requirements for performance guarantees and
that can create economies enhance policy implementation and program designs. verification of energy savings In 2011, the World Bank developed
One-off pilots are not helpful. Pilot projects are usually seen an energy efficiency program for public facilities in Armenia using
of scale would allow for
as a way to test implementation mechanisms on a small scale. simplified ESCO contracts under which the service company is paid
the pooling of government However, most pilots are done without any commitments or means for an approved design, delivery of the project, and commissioning.3
and donor resources into for scaling up successful schemes, and the experiences are lost soon Only the last payment is tied to a performance test. To date, the
country-led initiatives that after the program ends. Emphasis should be placed on national-level Armenian R2E2 fund has signed more than 58 ESCO contracts.
programs that can create economies of scale. This would allow for According to World Bank project documents and progress reports,
are ultimately sustainable.”
the pooling of government and donor resources into country-led all are performing well.
initiatives that are ultimately sustainable. For example, the World Incentives, incentives, incentives! Incentive gaps related to
Bank is helping the Mexican government launch a national municipal energy efficiency are numerous. Public agencies investing in energy
energy efficiency program with a pilot in 32 municipalities covering efficiency fear budget reductions. Utility companies fear a decrease
street lighting, municipal buildings, and water pumping. The pilot will in sales if they help customers cut energy use. When bills are based
test the design and financing scheme. After savings and repayments on heated floor area, customers that are more efficient may not
are verified, the program—designed to be scalable—will expand realize any cost savings. And although landlords own buildings and
to the national level, covering all 2,438 municipalities as well as all equipment, tenants often pay the energy bills, so neither party has a
municipal sectors. sufficient incentive to invest in energy efficiency. Careful resolution
Delivery models used in developed countries must be of misaligned incentives is critical to ensure good implementation
simplified and adapted. When public financing is deemed nec- and high participation. In the United States, the Property Assessed
essary to develop or scale up a target market, models from Europe, Clean Energy (PACE) mechanism was developed to overcome energy
Japan, and North America can offer valuable suggestions, but usually efficiency challenges in commercial buildings. PACE allows for long-
they must be adapted to suit the local context. Feedback mecha- term financing of energy efficiency measures, often for as long as
nisms that enable learning from program lessons and improvements 20 years, enabling more-ambitious retrofits. If a building is sold, the
during implementation are also important. For example, in 2010, with PACE payments are transferred to the new owner.
World Bank assistance, South Africa’s power utility, Eskom, launched Markets are responding to these lessons and informed policies.
the Standard Offer Program,2 a successor to its demand-side Global estimates indicate that in 2012, the energy efficiency market
management program. The program was based on a North American rose to an estimated US$310–360 billion, more than supply-side
model. It was then revised based on experience and customized to investments in renewable energy or coal, oil, and gas (IEA 2014c).
meet the energy needs of South Africans (ESMAP 2011). Energy efficiency financing is becoming more mainstreamed and has
Energy service companies (ESCOs) can serve as a mech-
anism for financing and delivery of energy efficiency, but 3. Under an energy service agreement, the financier (typically an energy efficiency fund or public ESCO) provides financing
for an energy efficiency project, usually to a public or municipal client. The client agrees to continue paying current energy
bills (or baseline energy costs). The new (lower) energy bills are paid from an escrow account, and the remainder goes
2. A standard offer is a mechanism for acquiring demand-side resources. The utility, regulator, or other government agency toward repayment to the financier. This kind of scheme offers clients a significant advantage by relieving them of operational
agrees to purchase energy savings or load reduction for a predetermined rate based on verified energy savings. Any end risks, enabling them to maintain a positive cash flow. Energy service agreements are typically viewed as long-term contract
user, energy service company, equipment supplier, or other entity can propose ideas to reduce energy use, but it will be obligations. They are therefore not generally counted against public debt. Such agreements are being used or considered in
compensated only after completion of the plan and verification of savings. Armenia, Belarus, Macedonia, Mexico, Turkey, and Ukraine, among other countries.
6 W h y E n e r g y E ff i c i e n c y M a tte r s a n d H o w t o S c a l e It U p
greater specialized products, from on-bill utility financing to ESCOs to averages indicate that lending is declining—from US$857 million per
green bonds. International financial institutions provided more than year in 2008–10 to US$530 million in 2013–15—but several extensive
US$4.23 billion for energy efficiency in 2013. programs are in the pipeline in Bulgaria, China, Egypt, Mexico,
Russia, and Vietnam. The recent restructuring of the World Bank and
What has the World Bank done? the formation of Global Solution Groups and Global Leads offer an
“Within the World Bank, opportunity to scale up energy efficiency lending.
The Bank has mainstreamed lending for energy
lending for energy The Bank’s current energy efficiency portfolio covers the major
efficiency sectors: industry, public, and residential (table 2). The lending figures
efficiency has become a
Within the World Bank, lending for energy efficiency has become a include supply-side investments in generation, transmission, and
mainstreamed business
mainstreamed business line, with more than US$5.2 billion lent over distribution of electricity and heat, but these are not included in the
line, with more than the five fiscal years ending June 30, 2015. However, the business table because their modalities are more typical, with commercial
US$5.2 billion lent over remains volatile: Lending has ranged from a high of US$2.1 billion and regulatory incentives to drive utilities to reduce their losses,
the five fiscal years ending in fiscal 2011 to a low of US$218 million in fiscal 2015. Three-year reinforced by World Bank lending toward the same end. However,
June 30, 2015.”
Table 2. World Bank program models for energy efficiency
In pipeline: Egypt, Russia, Vietnam In pipeline: Belarus, Macedonia, Mexico, In pipeline: Bulgaria
Turkey
unlike larger infrastructure or supply-side energy efficiency, which is What are the priorities for future action?
focused on a few large investments, demand-side energy efficiency
programs require intermediaries or bundling agents to bring many
Once the prerequisites are met, policy makers
heterogeneous investments under one program. These bundling should treat energy efficiency as the first fuel
agents can be energy utilities, commercial or development banks, of the present century
“Unlike supply-side special purpose funds, public or super-ESCOs, or equipment man-
National energy efficiency programs should be based on a compre-
energy efficiency, which ufacturers or suppliers. Program performance is frequently based
hensive policy and regulatory framework, strong and accountable
on the ability of the bundling agent to identify a strong subproject
focuses on a few large institutions, dedicated financing mechanisms, detailed and reliable
pipeline, to finance and implement subprojects, and to monitor and
investments, demand-side data and information, and measures to enhance technical capacity
report results.
(figure 4).
energy efficiency programs
require intermediaries or
bundling agents to bring
Figure 4. Framework for successful energy efficiency programs at the national level
many heterogeneous
investments under one
program.” Policy and regulations Institutions
Overarching EE legal framework Dedicated entity with EE mandate
Successful
Information energy efficiency Finance
Database on energy consumption programs Commercial bank lending
(credit lines and guarantees)
Industrial and building stock
Cash-flow–based EE financing
Information center; case study database
Commercial ESCO financing
Database of service providers,
EE technologies, and equipment providers Public sector EE financing
Broad, sustained public awareness Technical capacity Residential home appliance credit
Once there is a solid framework in place, governments must institutional setups, and enabling environments are in place to
develop programs to address existing barriers and achieve national sustainably support implementation of a national program.
energy efficiency goals. Energy efficiency programs can take many Engage the private sector early. Most energy efficiency
forms—for example, providing information, special access to financ- potential lies in private factories and buildings, so the private sector
ing, incentives and subsidies, tools and guides, and training—to help should be involved at the start of any initiative, whether as an end
“Most energy efficiency end users finance and implement energy efficiency measures. Such user, a potential implementer, or a possible financier. Although early
potential lies in private programming should be systematic and based on market studies. consultations on programming and design can support efforts to
Plans should have clear objectives, measureable indicators, and ensure that limited public funds will attract commercial financing at
factories and buildings, so
defined exit strategies, and they should be subject to broad consul- a later stage, government support is necessary to develop financing
the private sector should tations with potential participants, service providers, financiers, and and implementation mechanisms. There must also be buy-in from
be involved at the start of other stakeholders. Key steps in program design and implementation likely market actors on the approaches and models being tested
any initiative, whether as include: with public funds so that after government programs are phased
• Collection of relevant market data to determine energy efficiency out, those actors will be willing to take over financing and expansion.
an end user, a potential
potential and prevailing policy and market deficiencies In addition, there must be agreement on the indicators needed by
implementer, or a possible • Analysis and synthesis of data to determine program goals and private firms to meet their conditions for investing (e.g., rates of
financier.” expected impacts return, default rates, and stable demand). Governments should also
• Development of program strategies and designs seek input and feedback from the private sector on their policies and
• Identification of target markets programming—regulatory and voluntary mechanisms, incentives,
• Development of implementation strategies and plans through information, and technical support (e.g., industrial and building
broad consultations tools, case studies and best-practice guides, recognition for high
• Engagement of implementing agents and development of their performers).
capacity Scale up energy efficiency in the public sector. Developing
• Monitoring and evaluation of program results countries have pressing needs to rehabilitate old and build new
• Learning from results to improve program designs and phase out infrastructure, because public buildings, schools, hospitals, street
programs that have achieved their goals or have proven to be lights, water pumps, and other infrastructure are often outdated
ineffective. and poorly maintained. But credit constraints often limit access
commercial financing. Developing citywide or national programs
After the foundations are laid, policy makers can begin to treat that target public energy users could have a catalytic effect on local
energy efficiency as the first fuel for the next century. Five key markets, attracting new service providers and equipment suppliers,
recommendations follow: increasing competition, and driving down prices. Common ownership
Focus on delivering energy efficiency at scale. and similar building types (e.g., schools and hospitals) offer excellent
Policymakers should develop a range of program models for financ- opportunities to bundle projects or equipment purchases, which can
ing and implementation at the national level. Pilot programs should provide significant economies of scale. Local governments also have
be accompanied by commitments from the country and potential huge investment needs across all sectors: transport, water, waste,
financiers to expand successful initiatives to national scale. Donors buildings, lighting, and energy. Regulations are critical for ensuring
should be encouraged to pool funds in support of national programs that any new infrastructure—e.g., water systems, public buildings,
to avoid parallel and competing endeavors and to allow donors and municipal street or traffic lighting—adhere to national standards
broader policy engagement, ensuring that policies and regulations, that discourage overconsumption of energy.
9 W h y E n e r g y E ff i c i e n c y M a tte r s a n d H o w t o S c a l e It U p
Each Live Wire will be peer-reviewed by seasoned practitioners in the Bank. Once a year, the
Energy and Extractives Global Practice takes stock of all notes that appeared, reviewing their
quality and identifying priority areas to be covered in the following year’s pipeline.
d Providing Sustainable
accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy
energy intensity levels are high to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household
“knowledge citizenship” and participate in the ongoing change process at the Bank,
v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a
ess Toward Pro
1 Tracking Progr
rgy
Providing Sustainable Ene
Tracking Progress Toward
Or 2014/5
1 U n d e r s ta n d i n g C O 2 emissiOns frOm the glObal energy seCt
THE BOTTOM LINE
pe and Cen tral Asia
for All in Eastern Euro
stand
where does the region
on the quest for sustaina
ble based on that frame-
measures. This note is
databases—technical updated version of
energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an
has near-universal access
to WhyD is this important? ERGY PRACTICE
work (World Bank 2014).
E G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N to
electricity, and 93 percent
of A K N O W L
g regiona l trends is critical monitoring the GTF in 2015.
data sources that the GTF uses to
Trackin The primary indicator s and
the population has access s of the Sustain able Energy for All the three SE4ALL goals are summari
zed below.
the progres track progress toward
Become an author
has remained
emissions of CO2. three- consumption to be accomplished by of renewable energy in in the World Bank’s Global
Electrification Database
high energy 2010 share
of the
very
relatively low. Mitigating climate change services, toknowledge
energy requires double the ld Energy Database .
1
quarters of those emissions rate of improvement Organization’s Househo CO2
intensity levels have come and to double the global Figure 1. CO2 emissions Health Figure 2. energy-related The share of renewable
energy in the energy
come from six major sources of COs2 emissions the global energy mix, 0 (SE4ALL 2012). Renewab le energy. by country
question to the period 1990–201 by sector emissions consumption
down rapidly. The big
economies. although coal-fired in energy efficiency relative countries setting percenta ge of total final energy
mix is measured by the
contribute to your
responsible for more than of decline in energytotal greenhouse to pursue the three objective on their Other HICs . The rate of
energy sector—defined include
willtoexcel elsewhere, depending Energy efficiency 30%
of energy
will continue. of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The in one area while others
Energy 8%
annual growth rate (CAGR)
70 percent of energy-sector
41tive advantagesIndustryas well as on 41% approximJapan ated4%by the compound energy
fuels consumed for electricity and heat generation—contributed
and compara the ratio of total primary
emissions in 2010. despite respective starting points 20%
intensity, where Russia energy intensity is
percent of global CO2 emissions that they are able to marshal.
in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related USA product (GDP) measured in
purchas-
the resources and support
7%
improvements in some gross domestic