Concepts/questions

Videos: heading before the video on Csepub

Refresher Information:
Must know how to round, such as if told to round to 0,1,2 digits
Rounding to XX decimal places

Module 1 part 1 What is a Model and why do we use it?

Business Analysis, Business Modeling and the problem solving process and More about Models
Module 1 part 2

Be able to look at a function and know what output will be. Know what specific inputs to function do.

1. Freezing a cell with $ or F4

$ locking cells
2. If statement
Excel if statement
3. Sum Product
Sumproduct: What it does
4. Goal Seek
Goal Seek
5. Good Spreadsheet practice
Good spread sheet practices
6. Cell Name
Referring to Cells
7. Copying
Copy
8. Continue a pattern
Patterns

Module 2: Heuristic Forecasting

Video

1. Define and types of forecasts: qualitative versus quantitative forecasting,

2. What are the three steps for creating a forecast
Qualitative versus quantitative forecasting

3. What are the Four components of Time Series Data

Forecasting Process and Four components of Time Series Data

4. What type of data is Heuristic versus regression good for?

5. What type of data is Regression good for?
Forecasting Process and Four components of Time Series Data
 6. Heuristics methods (define Heuristic)

a. Naïve
Naïve

b. N-period moving average

c. Weighted moving average
N-period moving and Weighted moving average

d. Simple Exponential smoothing

Simple Exponential smoothing

7. Evaluation of Forecast; How to calculate, what they mean and what they tell you about your forecast
a. Error and Bias, (under or over forecasting)
b. Absolute Deviation and MAD
c. Absolute percent error and MAPE
d. Squared error and MSE, (what kind of errors does this draw attention to?)
e. RMSE

Error and Bias

MAD
MAPE
MSE

RMSE

Module 3: Regression: Trend

1. How to Run in Excel

Running single reg in Excel

2. Equation, find (on excel output ) and use

Using the line to create a forecast
 3. How to Interpret coefficients in the regression coef
Interpreting the coefficient review

4. How to adjust for units, what values to use for X, such as if in units of 1000, 100 etc.
Converting Units

Compute all the following from partial data on an Excel output:

5. Computing R squared and multiple R:
6. What does R squared tell you about the equation
7. Range for R and R squared.
8. Standard error : meaning and how to calculate
How good is the equation? etc

What do all the following mean and how to calculate

9. MSE,
10. MSR,
11. SSR,
12. SSE,
13. SST
How good is the equation? etc

14. Know where the values above are on the excel output and how to calculate various missing fields
How to fill in the blanks on Excel Regression Output

15. Time as independent variable (how to determine what value to use in the regression equation).
How do I convert dates to values of T(time)

16. Multiple Regression

a. How different than single, etc

Multiple Regression and Occam’s razor

b. How to Run in Excel

Running Multiple Regression in Excel

c. What is Occam’s razor

Multiple Regression and Occam’s razor

Module 4: Seasonality and classical decomposition

1. Calculate Seasonal Index

Calculate Seasonal Index

2. Use Seasonal Index to calculate de-seasonal value

3. Use Seasonal Index to calculate seasonal value
Adding seasonality into a forecast

It’s all basically one equation

4. Understand how to calculate an index for Monthly and quarterly

Important Points

5. What the total of the indexes should add up to.

Important Points

6. Classical Decomposition
Creating a forecast using both trend and season

a. 4 Steps to take historical data and create a seasonalized forecast

Creating a forecast using both trend and season

b. Creating a forecast using both trend and seasonality

Creating a forecast using both trend and season

Module 5: Profit Model

1. Possible values for Profit versus revenue (ie which can be negative) The Profit Model
2. Profit model, How calculate profit : From a set of data, calculate The Profit Model and Fixed versus
Profit, Revenue, Fixed costs, variable costs variable Expenses
3. Profit Calculation Updated Profit Model when demand
Including converting time periods, such as monthly data into daily and production are not equal:
date.
Converting Profit to a different time period. ( day, month, year)
4. Break even; How calculate and what it means Break Even, when profit = 0
5. Contribution Margin, calculation and what it means ( ie contribute to Contribution Margin
paying off FC or profit )

6. Crossover point: calculation Calculating the crossover point

7. Understand negative crossover When Cross over is negative ( at
bottom of story)
8. Profit and quantity at crossover The Profit Model and Calculating the
crossover point
9. How demand being greater or less than production influences Profit Updated Profit Model when demand
calculation and production are not equal: