TOWARDS A PREVENTIVE RISK

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DURING SEVERE

WEATHER CONDITION

LOUISIANA FLOOD: THE MAJOR FOCUS

PREPARED BY: GABRIEL MACAULAY

Flood

Flood is defined by The European Union Flood Directives as the covering by water of

land that is not normally covered by water. Different types of flood include riverbank

over-run, catastrophic flooding (collapse of dam), flash, areal flooding etc.

Louisiana experienced an Areal flooding in August 2016 and this led to irreparable

loss of lives and properties that was estimated to worth between $10 - $15 billion.

Three major meteorological challenges became evident after the Louisiana flood;

1. Global Forecast System nor Climate Forecast System captured the flood in

Louisiana before August 9. This is due to the present difficulty in capturing the

extreme precipitation caused by sub-synoptic scale low pressure system (it is

an unsystematic weather system that needs to be engaged in adequate

research). There is a need for further study to increase the knowledge in this

area to give room for better forecast lead time for adequate response time.

2. Many current climate projections did not highlight Louisiana as a flood

hotspot (Jansen et al. 2014, Gao et al. 2012). This has been proven wrong with
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 the August flood and this has necessitated the need for studies to reflect the

correct future flood propensity in Louisiana.

3. Van der Wiel et al. (2016) showed that half of the uppermost extreme

precipitation events in the Gulf coast results from tropical cyclones. This is the

major reason why weak tropical disturbances like Louisiana “unnamed” low

pressure system currently do not merit comparable warning criteria and this

is to the detriment of the state of Louisiana. This must be corrected. More

attention should be given to this low pressure system and more research

should be done on it.

Causes of flooding include excessive rainfall, ambient ground conditions,

groundwater level, land topography and other numerous hydrological,

climatological and meteorological (HCM) factors (which directly or indirectly

affects).

One of the many factors that cause flooding, rainfall, has so many factors that

inherently affects it that leads to the inexactness of predicting it. The science of flood

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prediction is inexact and has presented scientists with numerous challenges over

the years. Although, there are some positive achievement by science in the area of

flood prediction such as radar-estimate, satellite-estimate of rainfall etc but studies

have shown that rainfall estimates from these instrument have been largely biased

and such is flood prediction which are premised on these estimates. During the flood

that occurred in southeastern Texas in 19 – 22 October 1994, National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service reported an error of 31%

in their flood prediction using the standard Z-R relationship ( Z = 300R ^ 1.4).

Vieux and Bedient (1998) used Z = 250R ^ 1.2 and the estimate they produced was

closer (6% - 15%) to the actual gauge accumulations than NOAA-NWS estimate.

Many factors were suspected to cause the significant errors in rainfall estimate by

WSR-88D and the direct factors attributed to the radar itself are the use of 53-dbZ

reflectivity threshold and the WSR-88D Precipitation Processing Subsystem (PPS)

use of reflectivities at 2.5o and 3.5o elevations angle out to 100km, then 0.5o and

1.5o thereafter.

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Also, Senesi et al. (1996) evaluated the analysis of a mesoscale system that led to

flooding due to over 300mm of rain in 24 hours during 22 September 1992 in

southeastern France while only 100 km away, 450mm of rain cause minor damages.

He successfully pointed out that it is not enough for only heavy rainfall to cause

flooding but a combination of various meteorological, hydrological and terrestrial

ingredients. These ingredients, according to Doswell et al. (1996), include;

 Meteorological factors such as sources of moisture-causing deep convection,

lifting mechanism, widespread rainfall etc.

 Hydrological variables such as ambient soil moisture conditions, spatial

superposition of heavy rainfall over a particular catchment

 Spatial arrangement of buildings due to urban growth.

Through research they were able to “exculpate” the reflectivity threshold from

being “guilty” of causing the error but it was established that the angle of tilt may

vary results achieved from WSR-88D. They, however, acknowledged the

“incompleteness” of their work in their conclusion by admitting that many factors

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were not evaluated in their research. These factors if studied may lead to a new

answer and a better Z-R relationship. This; my research work will examine.

This necessitates my research work. Also, my passion for the provision of

humanitarian aids continually like I was involved during my undergraduate days as a

Peace Corp (Nigeria).

Challenges to be resolved

1. Host of meteorological and climatological factors, yet to be fathomed, that

leads to inconsistency in radar estimate and these have to be investigates and

diligently researched. This is in perfect simulacrum with one of Bell & Kundu

(2002) research statements that “biases in satellite (radar)

estimates…certainly vary with the kind of rain being observed, the amounts

and a host of HCM factors that will take long and patient research to unravel”.

2. Develop a model for proper spatial arrangement of building for future urban

planning to lead to reduced catastrophe during any major flooding:

contraction between two buildings can act as an area of channel (m2).

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In basic form, Volumetric flow rate equation is stated as Q = Av where Q = flow rate,

A = area of channel and v = velocity of the fluid.

Even with a constant flow rate (Q), flood can be more destructive in some zone due

to the inappropriate spatial arrangement of the buildings it has. The reason being

that for a constant flow rate and a reduced Area of channel, velocity of the flood will

increase. And an increase flood’s velocity will definitely render the flood more

destructive.

Proposed Work Pack

1. Low pressure system that caused the flood in Louisiana will be studied with

the hope for better predictability of the system.

2. Z-R relationship would be investigated with a view to discovering and

identifying other hydrological, climatological and meteorological (HCM)

factors that have led to its unacceptably large variability and the inexactness

of radar-based rainfall estimate when compared with the actual gauge rainfall

estimate (flood prediction).

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 3. Identification of the specific impacts of many other HCM factors on Z-R

relationship and rainfall estimates/flood prediction would be researched.

4. Making recommendations to NOAA-NWS on the most appropriate Z-R

relationship that should be used for more accurate flood prediction.

5. Population survey of the people of Louisiana in order to determine the best

social medium to instantly convey flood information.

Benefits of My Proposed Research Work

1. A sudden need to relocate people at time of disaster, apart from being cost

intensive, it may be tasking due to the flooded area, which is hard to navigate

that the flood has created, damaged road network, impaired communication

services, wetted electric cables that is capable of electrocuting. Also, the lives

of both the rescuers and the people to be rescued is being subjected to

avoidable risks if they had earlier knowledge of the flood and had planned

accordingly.

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2. “To be forewarned is to be forearmed”. A handy and ready available

knowledge of an impending flood would allow the people of Louisiana to plan

accordingly in order to avoid possible flood zones. This would prove to be

lifesaving.

3. According to the present way things are being done, the availability of

information regarding impending flood is only sartorially suited to the need

of people that seek for it. Dissemination mechanisms need a rethink. It can be

changed by integrating flood information delivery medium with popular social

media that most people of Louisiana use. This would provide instant, intimate

and regular notification for users.

A population survey would be done in other to determine the most used

media by both young and old and we shall advise on the integration of “flood

information medium” with the media.

4. My research work would also be to improve Z-R relationship equation in other

to allow for a more exact flood prediction. And suggestions and

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 recommendations would be made to appropriate bodies in charge e.g.

National Weather Service (NWS).

Why Louisiana must act NOW!

NWS stated that the chance of occurrence of August event was 1-in-1000. Even at

that, in accordance with Murphy’s Law which states that anything that can go wrong

will surely do some day, something supposed to have been done. Louisiana needs

to be ever prepared.

According to Wang et al. (2016), the catastrophic August flood in Louisiana was as a

result of intense precipitation that was produced by a slow-moving tropical low

pressure system interacting with eastward travelling baroclinic trough to the north.

There are more tendency for stronger upper level troughs propagating out of the

western US in summer, these then have an increased potential to cross path with

low pressure systems that form around the Gulf Coast.

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Different climate simulation models indicate the prospect of future tropical mid-

latitude interactions and this is indeed a scenario that Louisiana will face in the

future. Regional simulation further suggests that the climate warming since 1985

might have increased the August precipitation on the order of 20%, all of which

allude to a conceivable forecast of non-hurricane related, warm season extreme

precipitation in the Gulf Coast states including Louisiana.

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