QUALITY AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL, VOL.

9, 15-27 (1993)

FAULT AND CAUSE DIAGNOSIS OF CASTING

DEFECTS: CASE STUDY NO. 2
F. B . J . SWEETING
School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4001 Australia

W . R. THORPE
Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland,
4067 Australia

AND

A. N . PElTIlT
School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4001 Australia

SUMMARY
Under pressure for cost reduction, a semi-automated grey iron foundry was experimenting with
alternative supply sources of the moulding sand additives, bentonite and coal dust. During a period
when increasing quantities of possible replacement materials were being blended with current supplies
it was noticed that the previously high or erratic level of rejects in a small group of products was
progressively improving. In the absence of a real understanding of the reason for the improvement
and in an endeavour to ensure that adequate safeguards were in place to avoid any relapse, a statistical
examination was undertaken of the green sand and metal subsystems.
The behaviour of the variables in these subsystems was analysed for a datum period before and after
the decision to change the sources of supply. Using existing process records and applying appropriate
statistical techniques a clear indication was obtained that factors outside those of bentonite and coal
dust were also involved in the improvement.
The use of factorial analysis demonstrated the relative significance of the sand and metal variables
and the existence of any interactions. The use of box and whisker plots gave a good indication of the
desirable control limits for the key variables. Analysis of the follow-up period revealed a reduction of
90 per cent in the level of rejects for one high volume line.

KEY WORDS Foundry defects Cause and effect Potential information Factorial experimentation
Diagnostic methods

GLOSSARY Moisture (H,O)-a measure of the moist-

ure content of the sand mix.
AFS clay (AFS)-a measure of the clay, Permeability (Perm)-that characteristic of a
solubles and other fine materials moulded sand that allows air and
(< 20 pm) in the sand mix. other gases to pass through it.
Bentonite Clay mineral used as a bonding Volatiles (Vo1s)-A measurement of the
addition to foundry sand. amount of gas given off by
Compactability (Comp)-a measure of bulk materials in the sand mix through
density and, indirectly, the ratio their vapourization and decom-
of water and clay. position in the absence of air for
Effective clay (Efc1)-the estimated percent- combustion.
age of clay in the sand mix that
is bonding sand grains together.
Fines fraction (F-F)-a measure of the INTRODUCTION
absorbent filler material in the
sand mix In a previous paper' the authors set out to develop
Green (GCS)-a measure of the com- a methodical approach to the use of information
compression pressive stress the moulded sand technology and statistics in the diagnosis of the cause
strength can withstand. of inconsistent or intermittent faults in grey iron
Loss on (LO1)-a measure of the castings. It was pointed out that, although much
ignition amount of material in the sand work and promotion of ideas in the field of statistical
mix capable of burning at high process control (SPC) had been done by Deming,*
temperature in the presence of Ishikawa3 and others, there was little published
air. experience of the use of statistics as an investigative

0748-8017/93/010015-13$11 s o Received 20 September 1992

01993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Revised 28 October 1992
16 F. B . J . SWEETING, W.
tool for the foundryman faced with recurrent but
seemingly unpredictable problems. The power of
even a modest PC in applying statistical methods to
a computerized base of low level production data
was demonstrated.
This paper relates to the further application, in
the same industrial host company, of similar statisti-
cal and other investigative tools to the diagnosis of
the cause of a specific defect in what had become a
high volume product, identified as ‘Product B’.
The industrial host company for this project was
a grey iron foundry with a mechanized, continuous
moulding and casting line. The problem, as initially
stated, was the urgent need to secure a substantial
improvement in the level of the rejects from a pre-
viously persistent but erratic defect. Because there
was a progressive improvement following a trial
change in the sources of supply of bentonite and
cost dust, made purely for cost purposes, it was
assumed that these were responsible. There was,
however, inadequate evidence of the nature of the
change to provide a basis for ensuring that the
improvement in product conformity would be main-
tained.
In order to provide a more reliable predictor of
any relapse in the hitherto unexplained improve-
ment, it was decided to examine the recorded green
sand and metal subsystem variables to find a more
satisfactory explanation for the improvement.
In summary, the research started with a more
detailed analysis of the reject behaviour over a two-
month experimental period preceding the decision
to change the source of supply of bentonite. This
revealed that improvement had in fact been taking
place progressively over the two-month period. This
finding led to the examination of the process vari-
ables over the same period. Variables were identi-
fied, in both the green sand and the metal subsys-
tems, that had statistically significant effects on the
incidence of the defect (blisters) and confirmed the
presence of important but unsuspected interactions.
The major benefit from this investigation has been
the identification of those specific variables where
control limits needed to be revised and those critical
interactions where the relative levels of two or more
variables at the same point in time need to be care-
fully controlled. For six months prior to the datum
period the average reject level was in excess of 20
per cent. Over four separate runs (a total of 30
rounds) following the datum period, the product
was being produced at an average of under 2.0 per
cent rejects from all defects. This paper reports the
programme of analysis undertaken and the approach
used in revising process control values and monitor-
ing procedures.
As a background to the present study, it had
been established in earlier research, recorded in
Reference 1 that the blister defect was most prob-
ably caused by one or more of four contributary
factors: excessive gas, reduced venting, erratic or
slow mould filling and/or premature solidification.
R . THORPE AND A. N. PElTIlT
THE PROGRAMME OF ANALYSIS
Methodology
The first requirement was to substantiate whether
or not the seemingly sudden improvement in the
level of the defect known as ‘blisters’ could be attri-
buted solely to the change in source of supply of
the green sand additive, bentonite. If this were the
case it would be necessary to establish which specific
variables in the bentonite itself would need to be
monitored to ensure its continued reliability in per-
formance. If, however, as proved to be the case,
the bentonite was only one factor in a more complex
pattern of process variables, it would be necessary
to review and revise control limits for those other
variables found to be statistically significant. To ach-
ieve this, the programme of analysis in respect of
Product B was as follows:
1. Examine the historical pattern of blister rejects
prior to the change in supply of bentonite: using
trend analysis and fitting an appropiate curve
through the time-series data by the method of
least squares, any significant reduction in the
level of blister rejects before the change in
bentonite supply would be revealed.
2. Identify those process variables with statistically
sign$cant correlation with the incidence of blis-
ters: using the non-parametric Spearman coef-
ficient of correlation, the production process
records for both the sand and metal subsystems
were analysed. Those ‘key’ variables with a
high correlation and strong evidence, as meas-
ured by the level of significance, were then
subjected to a trend analysis as in point 1
above, and covering the same time period.
3. Quantify the extent to which the value of key
variables changed with the incidence of blister
rejects: using a series of two-sample analyses
on data drawn from good (low rejects) and bad
(high rejects) production runs, the differences
between the mean values and standard devi-
ations for each of the key variables were
obtained. The strength of correlation with the
incidence of blisters was also tested for statisti-
cal significance.
4. QuantifV the extent to which key variables
changed before and after the change in bentonite
supply: using a series of time series plots based
on data drawn from the periods before, during
and after the bentonite change, the significance
of the change in each variable was examined.
5. Establish the extent to which the variables in
each of the sand and metal subsystems can be
said to account for the incidence of blisters:
using a stepwise variable selection procedure
for multiple regression, models were built to
relate the dependent variable (the proportion
of production rejected for blisters) and those
independent variables that proved to be sig-
nificant in each subsystem. From each model,
 CASTING DEFECTS 17

key variables, when on good runs, was used to

indicate appropriate control limits.

The datum period

-Him+
0 20 48 60 88
Sequence o f rounds
Figure 1. Blister rejects and run averages
the variability in the proportion of blister
rejects was measured so as to determine the
extent to which such rejects could be accounted
for by a particular group of independent vari-
ables.
6 . Estimate the optimum value on which to centre
each key variable and the appropriate control
limits to be observed, with particular reference
to the relative values of interacting variables:
using the main effects and interactions derived
from a four-factor study for each subsystem,
the relative sensitivity of blisters to changes in
the level of each factor was revealed. Interac-
tions were further examined using two-factor
and three-factor (cube) plots. Finally, a series
of box and whisker plots of the values for the
Normal practice on the moulding line was to
identify the output by changing a code after each
fifty boxes poured (defined as a ‘round’), which on
average represented about 30 minutes running time
on the line. Records of defective rejects were nor-
mally only kept on the basis of a complete run,
which might comprise ten or more rounds. In order
to improve traceability for a previous research pro-
ject, Product B was already being monitored on a
round-to-round basis, which greatly enhanced the
value of the relevant production process records.
Data from both sand laboratory records and metal
spectrometer test records were extracted for 49
rounds prior to, and 40 rounds following the change
in bentonite supply. These data were entered into
an electronic spreadsheet for ease of manipulation
100
prior to their use in a variety of statistical pro-
cedures.
Findings of the preliminary analysis
The first step, that of examining the lead up to
the bentonite change by a time series analysis,
revealed that a trend downwards in the incidence
of blisters was already well established before the
decision to change was finally made (Figure 1).
A Spearman rank correlation of the recorded vari-
ables in the sand system (Table I), revealed that
permeability, loss on ignition, effective clay and
volatiles were four variables with strong evidence of
a correlation with the incidence of blisters. A time
series analysis carried out on each of these
(Figures 2( a)-(d)) revealed that trends, favourable
to the reduction of blisters, were also well estab-
lished before the change of bentonite supplier.
A similar rank correlation of the variables in the
metal subsystem revealed that significant correlation
with blisters existed for manganese, titanium, phos-

Table I. Rank correlation of green sand variables

Blst Perm Efcl Vols LO1 AFS HrO F-F Comp

Blst -0.49 0.29 0.33 0.37 -0.27 0.28 0.10 0.27

Perm XXX -0.07 -0.51 -0.24 0.55 -0.31 -0.46 -0.31
Efcl xx 0.26 0.57 0.34 0.58 -0.69 0.28
Vols xx xxx X 0.63 0.06 0.53 0.18 0.55
LO1 XXX x xxx xxx 0.44 0.70 -0.29 0.59
AFS x xxx X xx 0.68 -0.61 0.33
H20 xx xx xxx xxx xxx xxx -0.25 0.70
F-F xxx xxx x xxx 0.07
Comp x xx xx xxx xxx x xxx
Level of significance X : a < 0.1
X X : a < 0.01
xxx :a < 0.001
18 F. B. J . SWEETING, W. R. THORPE AND A. N . PETTITI

135 7.5

- .. . 7.2
x 125 s
PI
‘I) c
c 0
4 .-I
cl 6.9

.. ..
3 .-I
4 C

im
115 R
4
-4
I)
9
)J- C
0 6.6
uE
II)
L w
PI 0
105 -I

-../ 6.3

..
95 6

3 20 40 60 80 100 3 20 40 60 80 100
Sequence OF rounds Sequence o f rounds

Figure 2 (a). Time series and moving average for permeability Figure 2 (b). Time series and moving average for loss on ignition

3.4
9.9

3.2 9.5

S
4
2 9.1
u I 3 0
P)
-4
.-I PI
4J
I
:. 8.7
4 +J
0 2.0 U
3 Y
c
8.3

2.6
7.9

2.4
7.5

0 20 40 60 80 100
Sequence o f rounds 0 20 40 60 80 100
Sequence o f rounds
Figure 2 (c). Time series and moving average for volatiles
Figure 2 (d). Time series and moving average for effective clay

phorus and tin. A time-series analysis of these

(Figures 3( a)-(d)) confirmed that distinct changes
were also evident during the experimental period
prior to the decision to change the source of benton-
ite. Again, these changes were not made to reduce
blister rejects but arose, in the case of manganese,
to improve wear resistance and as the result of a
change in the source of supply of scrap metal.
From the preliminary analysis thus far it was clear
that the improvement in the blister reject situation
could not be attributed solely or even mainly to the
change in bentonite supply, although this could well
be a factor in maintaining the favourable trend. The
analysis had, however, focused attention on the key
variables in each of the sand and metal subsystems.
The next step was to quantify the influence of these
key variables to establish the extent to which they
could account for the presence of blisters in Prod-
uct B.
 CASTING DEFECTS 19

0.74 0.03

0.72 0.026

h
[: 0.7
.. .. ; * 0.82
5 t
P)
E
0.68 J 0.016
*-I
C
I t
D I
c +,
4
0.66 + 0.01

0.64 SE-3

0.62 0

3 20 40 60 80 100 3 20 40 60 80 100
Sequence o f Rounds Smqumncm o f Rounds
Figure 3 (a). Second-order polynomial of time series for manga- Figure 3 (b). Second-order polynomial of time series for
nese titanium

< X 1E-3)
77 0.04

0.036
. .
67 . .
e

/-
n 0.032
m c
3
8
- . ?! ..
1:
a
I0
0
S
n
67

-. 8
C
.-I
C- 0.028
--\
.
.. ..
47
.. 0.024 - ..

I.

37 0.02

B 20 40 60 80 160 3 20 40 68 80 100
Sequence o f Rounds Sequence o f Rounds

Figure 3 (c). Second-order polynomial of time series for phos- Figure 3 (d). Second-order polynomial of time series for tin
phorus

QUANTIFYING THE INFLUENCE OF KEY
VARIABLES
Testing for statistical signijkance
The next step in quantifying the influence of the
identified key variables was to establish that a stat-
istically different distribution of values was
operating during good runs (best 25 per cent for
rejects) from those of bad runs (worst 25 per cent).
This was achieved by the use of a series of two-
sample a n a l y ~ e sin
, ~which sample statistics for good
and bad runs were calculated and compared, and
the hypothesis of difference accepted or rejected at
the 5 per cent level of significance. A summary of
these results is given in Table 11, from which it will
be seen that in the sand subsystem, permeability is
clearly the major factor, followed by loss on ignition,
effective clay and volatiles. In the metal subsystem,
titanium, manganese and phosphorus were statisti-
cally significant factors while tin was not.
Establishing that a statistically significant differ-
ence in the level of certain key variables existed
20 F. B. J . SWEETING, W . R . THORPE AND A. N. PElTIIT

Table 11. Comparison of values of key variables between good and bad runs. Ho: no change in location of mean
of distribution

Sand subsystem Metal subsystem

Perm LO1 Efcl Vols Ti Mn P Sn

Good runs*
Mean 120 6-56 8.52 2.84 0.021 0.683 0.055 0.028
STDVS 5.5 0.24 0.58 0.18 0.003 0.02 0.006 0.005
Median 118 6.58 8.55 2.85 0.020 0.684 0.055 0.026
Bad runst
Mean 107 6.95 8.97 2.97 0.012 0.654 0.045 0.028
STDVS 9.2 0.46 0.45 0.20 0.007 0.017 0.006 0.003
Median 104 7.17 9.05 3.00 0.009 0.648 0.046 0.028
t statistic 5.52 -3.4 -2.7 -2-1 5.60 4.78 5.02 --0.5
Significance level 0.000 0.002 0.009 0-039 O*OOO 0.000 0.000 0.607
Reject Ho Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Mean ratio 1.12 0.94 0.95 0.96 1.75 1.04 1.22 1.oo

*Lowest quartile of reject percentage

tHighest quartile of reject percentage
$Standard deviation

between good and bad runs served to confirm that
the trend evident in Figure 1 was decidedly more
complex than at first thought following the change
in bentonite.
The next step was to establish the extent to which
the sand and metal subsystems, respectively, could
be shown to account for the incidence of blisters.
This was approached by the use of a multiple
regression procedure. Here, each variable in the
subsystem is introduced in order of significance until
an optimum value is achieved for the sample coef-
ficient of determination R2.
The sand subsystem
Using a stepwise variable selection procedure for
multiple regression, the sand variables were intro-
duced into a model in order of their statistical sig-
nificance. The model of the sand subsystem prod-
uced, shown in Table 111, indicates that some 44 per
cent of the variation in the incidence of blister
rejects can be accounted for by four main sand
variables.
In order to distinguish quantitatively between the
main effects of individual variables and the effects,
if any, of their interactions, a screening design pro-
cedure using a two-level, full factorial design for
four factors was a d ~ p t e dThis
. ~ procedure requires
a statistically designed series of production runs with
the variable factors set at different levels, in this
case high and low relative to a mean value calculated
from a normal run of operating values.
Because of the difficulty and cost of trying to
control several foundry variables at specific values
at one and the same time, as required in a prospec-
tive study, use was made of historical process rec-
ords. The factorial experiment was designed and
then the desired profile (pattern of highs and lows)
was selected from the actual rounds produced during
the datum period. (Details of this procedure were
explained in Reference 1.)

Table 111. Model fitting results for blister rejects

Independent Coefficient Standard t value Significance

variance error level

Constant 8.62 21-72 0.397 0.6923

Permeability -0.46 0.088 -5.21 0~0000
Volatiles -11.93 4.82 -2.47 0.0154
Loss on ignition 10.28 2.78 3.69 0.0004

Analysis of variance for the full regression

Source Sum of Degrees of Mean F-ratio P-value

squares freedom square

Model 2650.6 4 662.6 18.43 0~0000

Error 3019.1 84 35-942
Total 5669.7 88

RZ = 0.4675, (Adj) = 0.4421. Standard error of estimate = 5.9952

 CASTING DEFECTS 21

influence the incidence of blisters. The validity of

these findings can be supported by existing technical
knowledge of the purpose and effect of organic
0 additions to clay-bonded foundry sand as follows:
3 I'
'0 1. Permeability is largely determined by the grade
0
L
n or size of the sand grains and the extent to
b e /Low permeability which the interstices are occupied by smaller
0 / particles of additives or residues.
S
2. Loss on ignition is the measure used to quantify
111
m e the amount of coal dust (or its substitute) in
111
4J
the green sand. Coal dust is granular and has
U the same effect on permeability, when cold, as
1
'I
1 1 4
/ grains of sand of similar size. An increase in
: High permeability
coal dust would therefore result in more coke
L I
1 1 1 2
being produced which, being friable, breaks
cl
UI down into fine powder. This, coupled with fine
.-I
4 unburned coal dust, would reduce permeability
of the recycled sand quite markedly unless
removed.
Low High 3. 'Volatiles' is the measure used to identify the
fibrous material content in the green sand, e.g.
Loss o n ignition
the proportion of wood flour. Since wood flour
Figure 4. Plot of interactions between permeability and loss on contains very fine material which forms fine
ignition coke, any increase will result in a fall in per-
meability.
The estimated main effects and interactions in the
sand subsystem showed that, although permeability
The metal subsystem
and loss on ignition had the main effects, their
interaction was more important than that of loss on Using the same stepwise procedure as for the sand
ignition alone. From the plot shown in Figure 4, it subsystem a similar model was produced for the
will be seen that when permeability is low, the metal subsystem, but based on a smaller sample
response (blisters) is much more sensitive to vari- size because of missing records. This is shown in
ations in the loss on ignition. Table IV. This shows that some 57 per cent of blister
rejects can be accounted for by the four main metal
variables titanium, tin, phosphorus and manganese.
TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE
Using the same four-factor screening design, but
Permeability, loss on ignition and volatiles have applying it to the metal subsystem, the estimated
been identified from statistical analysis as being the main effects and factor interactions are shown in
most probable of the recorded sand variables to the form of a standardized ranked order chart in

Table IV. Model fitting results for blisters

Independent variable Coefficient Standard t Value Significance

error level

Constant 113 36 3.13 0.0028

Phosphorus -309 152 -2.03 0.0472
Manganese -86 48 -1.76 0.0837
Titanium -786 202 -3.87 0.0003
Tin -589 229 -2.56 0.0131

Analysis of variance for the full regression

Source Sum of Degrees of Mean F-Ratio P-Value

squares freedom square

Model 3058 4 764 20.44 o*oooo

Error 1982 53 37
Total 5040 57
~

RZ = 0.6067, (Adj) = 0.5770. Standard error of estimate = 6.1158

22 F. B. J. SWEETING, W. R. THORPE AND A. N . PE'ITITI

UI
C 24
0
.-I
4J
0 T i
?PI 20
4J n
C Mn s
.-I
4.J
L U
PI PI
U Ti/ 'rL 6
L PI
0 t
U L
S P PI
0 4J
0 nu2
PI .-I
UI 4

u Mn/ E
S
rn PI
c,
C
p/r r8
0
PI n
cn

\
E
PI PI
4 p:
W 4
High tit nium
9 2 4 6 e

Pareto order o f standardised e f f e c t s

0
Figure 5. Metal subsystem effects and interactions on blister ~~

rejects
Low High
Manganese

Figure 5. This shows manganese, titanium, phos- Figure 6 (a). Plot of interactions between manganese and
titanium
phorus and the interaction of titanium and manga-
nese to be statistically significant. This is further
borne out by the ANOVA for blister rejects shown
18
in Table V,where F-ratios were greater than 6 and \

P-values less than or equal to 0.05.

A plot of the interaction between titanium and
manganese is shown in Figure 6(a), from which it 15
h
will be seen that, with titanium at a low level, blisters

\
s
L o w Phosphorus
are much more sensitive to variations in the level of 4.J
0

1
manganese. A similar plot, Figure 6(b), shows that, PI
'ri2
with a low level of phosphorus, blisters are more PI
L
sensitive to the level of manganese. L
Of less statistical significance, but of metallurgical r
4.J
interest, is the three-factor cube plot shown in Fig- us
.-I
1
ure 7, where it can be seen that with high levels of
manganese and titanium there is a relative insensi- !
Y
tivity in the response (blisters) to variations in phos-
phorus. :=
0
High P ob.
a
Y
Y
U
3
Table V. Estimated effects for blister rejects

Mean
Factor Estimated effect square F-Ratio P-Value 0

P -7.00 2 2.63 196.00 7.08 0.0449 Low High

Ti -12.75 f 2.63 650.25 23.47 0.0047
Mn -14.00 ? 2.63 784.00 28.30 0.0031 Manganese
Sn -3.35 ? 2.63 42.25 1.53 0.2717 Figure 6 (b). Plot of interactions between manganese and phos-
PIT1 1-25 t 2.63 6.25 0.23 0.6596 phorus
PIMn 5.00 t 2.63 100.00 3.61 0.1159
PISn -0-75 5 2.63 2.25 0.08 0.7900
TiIMn 6.75 ? 2.63 182.25 6.58 0.0503 Metallurgical significance
TilSn -0.50 ? 2.63 1.00 0.04 0.8587
MnlSn *
3.75 2.63 56.25 2.03 0,2135 Titanium, manganese and phosphorus have been
identified as being important influences on the inci-
 CASTING DEFECTS 23

2. Manganese has as one prime function the

removal of free sulphur from the cast iron by
the formation of manganese sulphide. Sulphur
is a known surface-active component and thus
the extent of its removal will also affect surface
tension.
3. Phosphorus is known to affect the fluidity of
cast iron at higher concentrations although its
effect at lower concentrations is uncertain.
Although the metallurgical effects of these
elements are not well understood, especially in the
High context of blister formation, they are all known to
affect surface tension, and hence fluidity, in some
Titanium
way.

Interactions between subsystems

High

Phosphorus
Figure 7. Predicted response to interactions of manganese, phos-
phorus and titanium
dence of blisters. This identification was done on
purely statistical grounds, but its validity can be
supported by existing metallurgical knowledge as
follows:
1. Titanium is used as a deoxidant, and both
oxygen and titanium are known to affect the
surface tension of cast iron.6
Taking the two major factors from each subsystem
and carrying out a further four-factor, two-level
study, it was possible to detect any interactions
between the metal and sand.
Although titanium and permeability appeared as
the strongest main effects, there were inter-system
interactions which, although not statistically very
significant, were none the less of metallurgical inter-
est. From a half-normal plot for blister rejects
derived from the same four factor procedure and
shown in Figure 8, it appears that a third-order
interactions exists between loss on ignition and the
metal variables manganese and titanium. Although

2.4

Loi/Mn/Ti
2

I
II
0
.-I 1.6 Loi/Ti
3
m
-4
3
PI
U 1.2

U
L
m
U
C 8.8
m
3
cn
0.4

0.3 O.s 1.6

0 0.8 1.0 1.8

Standardized effects
Figure 8. Half-normal plot for blister rejects: sand and metal subsystems
24 F. B. J. SWEETING, W . R. THORPE A N D A. N. PETI'I'IT

metal interface at the time of pouring. Too

High
Manganese
High
Loss on ignition
Figure 9. Predicted response to interactions of manganese,
titanium and loss on ignition
third-order interactions are often considered of
dubious significance, the metallurgical implications
should not be ignored. Figure 9 suggests that loss
on ignition becomes more critical with lower values
of manganese and/or titanium.
The validity of this indication can be supported
by existing metallurgical knowledge as follows:
high a coal dust content of the green sand can
cause excessive gas generation.
2. Permeability is a measure of the rate at which
gases and/or vapours can escape from the
mould cavity. It needs to be adequate to vent
the gases and vapours generated during the
pouring operation and must therefore accom-
odate variations in loss on ignition and moist-
ure content.
The roles of manganese and titanium have already
been discussed above.
Because of the very significant change in the levels
of both loss on ignition (Figure 2(b)) and titanium
(Figure 3( b)) which accompanied the unexpected
drop in blisters very earlier in the datum period, it
is possible that their, now ongoing, significance may
have been overstated. For this reason a further mul-
tiple regression analysis was made for the latter part
of the datum period plus the follow up period. A
total of 100 rounds (omitting the first 18) was ana-
lysed, which revealed that over 60 per cent of the
variation in the incidence of blisters could still be
attributed to the four factors: permeability, loss on
ignition, phosphorus and manganese. A Durbin-
Watson statistic of 2.08 indicated that no significant
serial correlations remained in the residuals.
REVISION OF CONTROL PARAMETERS

1. Loss on ignition is the measure of the presence In order to review and, where needed, revise the
of combustibles, mainly coal dust or its substi- control parameters for the variables in both the
tute, the purpose of which is to create a reduc- green sand and metal subsystems, an analysis was
ing (oxygen removing) atmosphere at the sand/ made of the values obtaining for each variable, when

133 7.7

RI
7.4

123
C
0
3 .4 7.1
&
-4
4
2C
-4 a
f: 113 6.8
PI C
E 0
L
a I
a 8 6.6
1
103
6.2

93 6.9

e 3-5 18-15 =>28

8-3 6-10 16-28

Blirtrr rrurrity - Rrjrctr prr round <%) Blirtrr rrurritL( - Rrjrctr prr Round < % I
Figure 10 (a). Dispersion of sand subsystem variable: per- Figure 10 (b). Dispersion of sand subsystem variable: loss on
meability vs. blister seventy ignition vs. blister severity
 CASTING DEFECTS 25

8.83 8.74

8.825 8.72

I
8.82 8.7
E I
J I
-4
m
C
E

I
8.815 I 8.68
U a
.
.I C
I- I
E
8.81 8.66

5E-3 8.64

I
8a 8.62

8 3-5 18-15 =>28 8 3-5 18-15 =>28

8-3 5-38 15-28 8-3 5-18 15-28
B l i r t r r rrurrity - R r j r c t r p r r round ( % ) Blister reurrity - R r j r c t r p r r round < % )

Figure 11 (a). Dispersion of metal subsystem variable: titanium Figure 11 (b). Dispersion of metal subsystem variable: man-
vs. blister severity ganese vs. blister severity

( X 1E-3) , ( X 1E-3) ,

75 1 43
39
I
65

35
U
20
L C
n 55 .-I 31
u I-
0
1
a
27
45

23

8 3-6 18-16 =>28 8 3-5 16-16 =>28

8-3 5-10 15-28 8-3 6-10 15-28

B l i s t e r severity - R r j r c t r per round ( % ) B l i r t r r seuerity - R r j e c t o p r r round C % )

Figure 11 (c). Dispersion of metal subsystem variable: phos- Figure 11 (d). Dispersion of metal subsystem variable: tin vs.
phorus vs. blister severity blister severity

blisters were at their lowest and at various levels of
severity. To facilitate the selection of a target mean
and suitable control limits, a series of box and whis-
ker plots' was obtained for the values of each vari-
able at each level of blister severity. The box rep-
resents the interquartile range while the line above
or below extends to include any values within 1.5 x
the interquartile range. Outside this range values
are shown as discrete plots.
Green sand subsystem
From the box and whisker plots for permeability
and loss on ignition shown in Figures 10(a) and
26 F. B. J. SWEETING, W.
10(b), the blister severity level corresponding to 0-3
per cent rejects, will serve as a guide to the mean
and upper and lower control limits that would be
desirable. Values outside this range associated with
higher levels of blister severity should be avoided.
On this basis it appears that a permeability index
between 115 and 130 (ml per min) should be satis-
factory, but that loss on ignition should be targeted
at about 6.5 per cent (by weight) with a range of
no more than 0.3 per cent either side.
Metal subsystem
From the box and whisker plots for titanium,
manganese and phosphorus shown in Figures ll(a)-
l l ( c ) it would appear that the following values
should be satisfactory:
Manganese 0.64 to 0.70 per cent
Titanium 0.018 to 0.025 per cent
Phosphorus 0.048 to 0.060 per cent
However, because of the interactions revealed in
Figure 7, it is clear that the optimal situation is one
where all three variables are at the upper end of
their respective ranges.
Metal and sand interactions
From the estimated effects of the interaction of
loss on ignition with manganese and titanium it is
apparent that coal dust additions should be made
with due regard to the status of the metal subsystem.
Loss of metal fluidity, and hence increased mould
filling time, if accompanied by excessive gasses due
to high combustibles, could be expected to result in
increased blisters. Such a situation would be further
exacerbated by low permeability (Figure 4).
Metal flow and the runner system
Having established that a number of the key vari-
ables could have an influence on the fluidity of the
molten metal, a more detailed analysis was made of
the frequency of blister rejects coming from each of
the four cavities in the mould. From the 29 rounds
following the datum period, and during which blister
rejects were, on average, below 1.2 per cent, it was
found that some 60 per cent of all blister rejects
came from the same cavity (No. 4).
Further examination revealed that the mean
location of these blisters was in an area between
two more widely spaced ingates, indicating the need
for some fine tuning of the runner system.
Process capability analysis
The 29 rounds following the end of the datum
period were used as the basis for testing the control-
lability of the five key variables and the capability
of the system as a whole to maintain the improved
R. THORPE AND A. N. PETITTT
level of blister rejects. The process mean and disper-
sion for each of the individual variables was calcu-
lated, revealing that, although the centring of the
mean was slightly off target for permeability and
manganese, the dispersion for all five variables
appeared satisfactory.
An analysis of the capability of the process as a
whole to maintain the improved level of blister
rejects showed that an ongoing mean of below 2 per
cent with a two sigma limit of 4 per cent was a
realistic expectation.
CONCLUSION
The research described in this paper was carried out
in a semi-automated grey iron foundry. The object
was to establish the full extent and true cause of a
significant improvement in the reject level of a high
volume product with a persistently high and erratic
non-conformity.
As part of a cost reduction programme, a trial of
alternative sources of supply for two mould sand
additions, bentonite and coal dust, had led to an
unexpected and unexplained reduction in the level
of rejects in a small group of products subject to a
common defect. Although this improvement could
be conveniently attributed to the change in raw
materials, there was insufficient evidence to ensure
that the nature of the change was understood and
that appropriate controls were in place to safeguard
against any future relapse.
As a result of a previous research project, more
detailed record keeping had been set up. This made
possible the traceability between the reject product
and the conditions that pertained at the time of its
pouring. A datum period was selected of approxi-
mately two months either side of the change of
supplier, covering both the trial period and the run
out of old stocks.
Production process records for the datum period,
covering some 45 hours of actual production of the
specific product, were analysed for both the green
sand and the metal subsystems and statistical evi-
dence showed that changes were taking place in
both subsystems over the same period. Changes
were occurring in the metal subsystem both deliber-
ately (unconnected with the blister problem) and
arising from a change in the source of supply of
scrap metal.
This combination of changes had led to both main
effects and interactions of five key variables which
together resulted in a reduction in the level of rejects
from over 20 per cent to under 2 per cent. Because
the variation in the incidence of the non-conformity
was found to be attributable almost equally to the
sand and metal subsystems, the control parameters
for both have been reviewed and changes proposed.
Of particular interest is the interaction between vari-
ables both within and between subsystems. These
interactions make it necessary to monitor not only
 CASTING DEFECTS
discrete variables but also their relative levels at the
same point in time.
A process capability analysis based on a further
follow-up period of 15 hours of run time indicated
that there was no reason why an average blister
reject rate of around two per cent could not be
maintained provided the key variables were con-
trolled in line with standards derived from the find-
ings of the datum period.
This retrospective study, by its very nature, would
not have been possible without a database of
operating-level process records. The application of
a variety of statistical methods to such relatively low
level production data can be used cost-effectively to
identify those aspects of the product or process on
which t o focus more specific process technology.
The adoption of the recording requirements of
the quality standard I S 0 9000 (or its equivalent)
will provide companies with a database of the behav-
iour of the process variables in their production
system. Some statisticians would argue that such
data, used retrospectively, cannot be relied on t o
identify causal relationships, as would a well
designed prospective study. The fact remains that
repeated occurrence of highly correlated associ-
ations of a defect with a certain pattern of process
variables, such as would be apparent from statistical
analysis of an I S 0 9000 type database, can provide
valuable pointers t o the scope for and nature of
improvement action. Of course, in a strict methodo-
logical sense, this is only the first stage of the scien-
tific process, and any findings would require con-
firmation by carrying out a prospective study.
REFERENCES
1. F. B. J . Sweeting, W. R . Thorpe and A. N. Pettitt, ‘Fault
and cause diagnosis of casting defects: a case study’, Quality
and Reliability Engineering International, 8, 79-91 ( 1992).
2. W. E. Deming, Out of the Crisis, MIT Press, Cambridge,
1986.
3. K. Ishikawa, What is Total Quality Control?-The Japanese
Way, Prentice-Hall, New York, 1985.
4. I. Guttman, S. S. Wilks and J. S. Hunter, Introducing Engin-
eering Statistics, Third Edition, Wiley, New York, 1982.
5. G. E. P. Box, W. G. Hunter and J. S. Hunter, Statistics for
Experimenters, Wiley, New York, 1978.
27
6. B. F. Dyson, ‘The surface tension of iron and some iron
alloys’, The Metallurgical Society of AIME, 227, 1098-11M
(1963).
7. J. W.‘ Tukey, Exploratory Data Analysis, Addison-Wesley,
Reading, 1977.
Authors’ biographies:
Jeff Sweeting, prior to joining the staff of the University
of Southern Queensland, was a senior partner in the
international management consultancy of Urwick Orr &
Partners, now Price Waterhouse Urwick. He has been
involved in quality and productivity assignments in a wide
range of industries and technologies. A graduate of the
City and Guilds College of the Imperial College of Science
and Technology, London he has served as a Ford Foun-
dation Advisor in their management aid programme to
develop Asian consultants. A mechanical and industrial
engineer, he is currently an Associate of the Queensland
University of Technology researching the application of
information technology and statistical techniques to the
cost-effective diagnosis of the cause of intermittent or
erratic nonconformity in grey iron castings.
Warren Thorpe received his Ph.D in Physical Metallurgy
from the University of Queensland in 1976. After a year
at Griffith University working on computer modelling, he
was awarded an AINSE Postdoctoral Fellowship at the
University of Queensland to carry out research on high
temperature mechanical properties of materials. Since
joining the CSIRO division of Manufacturing Technology
in 1979, he has worked on a variety of materials projects,
specializing in computer applications. In 1989 he trans-
ferred to a joint appointment at the University of Queens-
land, Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineer-
ing, where he is a Reader in Materials Engineering, and
Officer in Charge of the Brisbane Laboratory of the
CSIRO Division of Manufacturing Technology. His cur-
rent research interests cover both the computer modelling
and physical metallurgy of solidification as well as the
statistical analysis of industrial data.
Tony Pettitt is currently Professor and Head, School of
Mathematics, Queensland University of Technology, Bris-
bane, Australia. He obtained his Ph.D. in mathematical
statistics from the University of Nottingham, U.K. and
lectured for several years at Loughborough University
of Technology, U.K. Recent positions in Australia have
included Principal Research Scientist with CSIRO in the
Division of Mathematics & Statistics and Biometrics Unit.
A statistician by profession, his current interests include
applied statistics aspects of quality improvement, statisti-
cal modelling, biometrics and statistical consulting.