ENGINEERING DATA AND

ANALYSIS

PROBABILITY

PREPARED BY: N.B.FERNANDEZ

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 In a survey of children who saw three different shows at Walt
Disney World, the following information was gathered:
• 39 children liked The Little Mermaid
• 43 children liked 101 Dalmatians
• 56 children liked Mickey Mouse
• 7 children liked The Little Mermaid and 101 Dalmatians
• 10 children liked The Little Mermaid and Mickey Mouse
• 16 children liked 101 Dalmatians and Mickey Mouse
• 4 children liked The Little Mermaid, 101 Dalmatians, and
Mickey Mouse
• 6 children did not like any of the shows

➢ What is the probability that students liked 101

Dalmatians only?

➢ What is the probability that students like at least

two show?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Addition Rules

Addition Rule 1 – When two events A and B are mutually

exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Addition Rule 2 – When two events A and B are NOT

mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint events if

one occurs the other cannot. In a set theory language,
the events are mutually exclusive if they do not share
any elements; they have no outcomes in common.

A B

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

A B

Two events are not mutually exclusive if they can

occur at the same time.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 1. If two dice are thrown or rolled find the probability that:

a. Two faces shows the same number

b. The sum of the two faces are greater than 10

c. A total more than 7

d. At least one ace

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 1. If two dice are thrown or rolled find the probability that:
e. The number on the first die is greater than the
number of the second die.

f. A sum of 5 or a sum of 9

g. At most a total of 5.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 1. A cup is flipped 100 times. It lands on its side 84 times, on
its bottom 6 times, and on its top 10 times. What is the
probability that it lands on top?

2. Fifty balls are numbered 1-50, placed in a box and mixed

thoroughly. If a ball is picked at random, what is the probability
that:

a. It is divisible by 6

b. Its number ends with 2

c. Its number is divisible by 6 or end with 2

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 3. One student’s name will be picked at random to win a CD
player. There are 12 male seniors, 14 female seniors, 7
male juniors, 5 female juniors, 5 male sophomores, 4
female sophomores, 11 male freshmen and 13 female
freshmen. Find the probability that a sophomore or a male
is picked?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 4. At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats,
and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at random, find
the probability that he or she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.

5. What is the probability of a 2 or an odd number being rolled

on a fair die?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 6. The probability that Paula passes Mathematics is 2/3, and the
probability that she passes English is 4/9. If the probability of
passing both courses is ¼. What is the probability that Paula
will pass at least one of these courses?

7. Three men are seeking public office. Candidate A and B are

given about the same chance of winning, but candidate C is
given twice the chance of either A or B
a) What is the probability that C wins?

b) What is the probability that A does not win?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Recall:
The probability that the department store will receive
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 complaints per day are respectively
0.05, 0.08, 0.35, 0.32, 0.18, 0.12 and 0.08. What are
the probability that in 1 day the dept. store will receive:

a) At most 3 complaints
b) At least 4
c) From 2 to 4 complaints inclusive

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Multiplication Rules

Multiplication Rule 1 – When two events A and B are

independent, the probability that A and B will occur is:

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Multiplication Rule 2 – When two events are dependent,

the probability that A and B will occur is:

P(A and B) = P(A) x P( B/A)

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Multiplication Rules

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability

of two or more events that occur in sequence.

➢ Two events are said to be independent if the

occurrence of one event does not affect the
occurrence of others. (with replacement)

➢ Two events are said to be dependent if the

occurrence of one affects the occurrence of the
other. (without replacement)

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence

of one event does not affect the occurrence of others.

Example:
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Dependent Events

Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence of

one affects the occurrence of the other.

Example:
1. A bag contains 5 white and 8 black balls, 2 balls are
drawn at random. Find the probability of getting both
the balls white, when the first ball is not replaced.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 1. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of these.

a. Getting 3 diamonds

b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

c. Getting a flower, a spade, and a heart in order

2. A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting

a 4, 5 or 6 on the first toss and a 1,2,3 or 4 on the
second toss

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 3. A and B play 12 games of chess of which 6 are won
by A, 4 are won by B, and 2 end in a draw. They
agree to play a tournament consisting of 3 games.
Find the probability that:

a) A wins all three games

b) A and B win alternately

c) B wins in 2 games and A wins on the third game

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 4. A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green candies.
Two candies are taken out from the bag with
replacement. Find the probability that both candies are
pink.

5. A town has 2 fire engines operating independently. The

probability that specific engine is available when needed
is 0.96

a. What is the probability that neither is available when

needed?

a. What is the probability that a fire engine is available

when needed?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Recall: Multiplication
Three cards are drawn in succession, without
replacement, from an ordinary cards. Find the
probability that A ∩ B ∩ C occurs where A is the event
that first card is a red ace, event B the second card is
10 or a jack, and events C for third card is greater than
3 but less than 7.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez
 Conditional Probabilities
In probability theory, conditional probability is a
measure of the probability of an event occurring, given
that another event has already occurred.

The conditional probability of A, given B, denoted by :

P(AB)
P(AB) = ------------------ provided that P(B)  0
P(B)

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by :

P(AB)
P(BA) = ------------------ provided that P(A)  0
P(A)

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 1. A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

Find these probabilities.

a) The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent
was a female.

b) The respondent was a male, given that the respondent

answered no.

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 2. The probability that a rare species of hamster will give birth
to one male and one female is 1/3. The probability that the
hamster will give birth to a male is 1/2. What is the
probability that the hamster will give birth to a female
knowing that the hamster has given birth to a male?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 3. 70% of your friends like Chocolate, and 35% like Chocolate
AND like Strawberry. What percent of those who like
Chocolate also like Strawberry?

P(Strawberry | Chocolate) = P(Chocolate and Strawberry) /

P(Chocolate)

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 4. A committee is composed of six democrats and five
republicans. Three of the democrats are men and three of
the republicans are men. If a man is chosen for chairman,
what is the probability that he is a republican?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Baye’s Rule
In a certain plant, three machines, A, B, C makes 30%, 45%, 25%,
respectively of the products. It is known that from past experiences
that 2%, 3% and 2% of the product made by each machine,
respectively are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected,
a)what is the probability that it is defective.
b)If a product was chosen and found out to be defective. What is the
probability that it was made by machine C?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 2. Ana holds a box of 3 red and 2 white balls and Benjie has a box of
5 red and 2 white balls. We play a game by tossing a coin. If head
came up, we pick a ball at Ana’s box; If tails, we pick a ball from
Benjie’s box.

a) Find the probability that a white ball is chosen.

b) Suppose that it turned out to be white. What is the probability
that it came from Ana’s box?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

 Baye’s Rule
A box contains three coins: two regular coins and one fake
two-headed coin (P(H)=1P(H)=1), You pick a coin at random
and toss it. What is the probability that it lands heads up? You
pick a coin at random and toss it, and get heads. What is the
probability that it is the two-headed coin?

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez

Engineering Data and Analysis Engr. Noime B. Fernandez