University of Management and Technology

Resource person: Gulraiz Nasim Ch Introduction to statistics

Name: Registration #
Lecture # 21 Section:

Chapter # 4
Introduction to Probability

Relative Frequency Assessment:

The method that define probability as the number of times an event occurs divided by the total
number of times an experiment is performed in a large number of trials.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝑖 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑃(𝐸𝑖 ) =
𝑁
Where 𝐸𝑖 = the event of interest
N= number of trials
Subjective Probability assessment:
The method that defines probability of an event as reflecting a decision maker’s state of mind
regarding the chances that the particular event will occur.
Question# 1
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, find the probability that:
i) The card is red card
ii) The card is diamond
iii) The card is a 10.
Question # 2
A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that at-least one head appears?
Question # 3 if two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting?
i) A double six
ii) A sum of 8 or more dots
Question # 4
Six white balls and four black balls, which are indistinguishable apart from color, are placed in a
bag. If six balls are taken from the bag, find the probability of their being three white and three
black ball selected.
 The Rules of Probability
Measuring probabilities
Probability Rule 1:
0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1, where A is an event. Probabilities lie within the range of 0 to 1. That is, neither it
can be negative nor can exceed to 1.
Probability Rule 2:
Sum of all probabilities of a certain random experiment should always be equal to 1.

 ∑ (𝑆)= 1
Probability Rule 3:
It’s also called Additive Rule

If A and B are Mutually Exclusive Events then 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)

If A and B are Not Mutually Exclusive Events then 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

Remember: Two events A and B of a single experiment are said to be mutually exclusive or
disjoint if and only if they cannot occur at the same time. That is they have no points in common.

Complement Rule
The complement of an event E is the collection of all possible outcomes not contained in event
E.

𝑃(𝐸̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)

Question# 5:
A fair coin is tossed two times. What is the probability that at-least one head appears?
Question # 6
A die is rolled. Find the probability of not getting a 5.

Question# 7
Out of six balls given in a bag three are given to be white. Find the probability of not getting a
white ball.

Question # 8
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability of not getting a jack
or queen.
Independent Event:
The literal meaning of Independent Events is the events which occur freely of each other.
The events are independent of each other. In other words, the occurrence of one event does not
affect the occurrence of the other. The probability of occurring of the two events are independent of
each other.

The events A and B are independent if 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨)𝑷(𝑩)

Example:
 Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
 Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
 Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the second card.
Important point:
A ∩ B we read as A and B
A U B we read as A or B

Example # 1

If a dice is thrown twice, find the probability of getting two 5’s.

Example: #2

Two sets of cards with a letter on each card as follows are placed into separate bags.

Sara randomly picked one card from each bag. Find the probability that:

a) She picked the letters ‘J’ and ‘R’.

b) Both letters are ‘L’.

c) Both letters are vowels.

Question# 9
Let A and B are two independent events such that P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.8. Find P(A and B), P(B
not A).
Dependent Event:
Two events are dependent when the outcome of the first event influences the outcome of the
second event. (Without Replacement).

Example of dependent events

Draw one card from a deck without replacement and then draw another card.
Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is:

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)

Example 1: Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his
class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the
room. He then chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both
students chosen are girls?

Example 2: In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly

selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first and second ones
are not replaced after being tested?

Example 3: Let A be the event that a family has children of both sexes and B be the event that a
family has at most one boy. If a family is known to have i) three children show that A and B are
independent Events. ii) Four children then show that events are dependent events.