THE FALL OF KABUL

INDIA'S PERSPECTIVE
A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation
August 2021
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 3

Strategic Takeaways 4

Methodology 5

The Crowd 6

Insights 7
INTRODUCTION
The Taliban triumph in Afghanistan is widely considered a game-changer in the regional dynamics in
South Asia. While directly impacting Afghanistan and Pakistan, the move also impacts India, which
has vast stakes in the country.

The recent development also has New Delhi worried that the organization will once again act as
Pakistan’s proxy, allowing terrorist groups to operate from Afghanistan against it, primarily in the
disputed region of Kashmir.

To explore the potential implications of a Taliban return to power in 2021, Wikistrat ran an online
simulation over a period of three days. In this, a group of 30 South Asia experts explored the potential
implications of such a scenario for India and developed policy recommendations for the Indian
government based on those.

It is important to note that this simulation ran prior to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, and it was
the second in a series of three simulations aimed at exploring the different implications of the
expected US withdrawal from Afghanistan for the region. The first simulation in the series explored
different potential scenarios on Pakistan, the second focused on India, and the third simulation will
look at China’s interests and strategies.
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS
1. India may become the site of an Afghan government in exile: While most of the crowd did not consider this possibility, some of
the experts suggested that following the Taliban takeover of Kabul, the closure of the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul, and
worsening of ties with the Taliban-led government, New Delhi might decide to host the Afghan government in exile (AGE).

2. The Taliban has no Kashmir policy: The experts believe that the Taliban is hesitant to pick sides in the contentious India-Pakistan
relationship and on the Kashmir issue. This may create an opening for India, as the Taliban may be open to fostering warm
relations with it.

3. The Taliban of today isn’t the Taliban of the early 2000s: The crowd agree that the Taliban of today differs significantly from the
Taliban of the 9/11 era. According to the experts, the Taliban today is more pragmatic than its predecessors, and the likelihood
that it will become a proxy for Pakistan again is low.

4. India will have to engage with the Taliban following the US withdrawal: The experts argue that India must engage with Taliban to
ensure its interests in Afghanistan are preserved and that Pakistan will not become the only key player regarding the Taliban's
activities in the country and the neighborhood.

5. A US withdrawal could bring about an India-Iran engagement: As the further destabilization of Afghanistan will hamper the
security and interests of both Iran and India, the experts argue that these convergences could potentially bring India closer to Iran
while dealing with the Afghan-Taliban question.
METHODOLOGY
In the first phase of the simulation, the participants were presented with an
opening scenario in which the Taliban had taken over Kabul and no US troops
remained in the country. The crowd was asked to respond to this scenario by
describing the impact of this event on India and to provide a policy
recommendation to its government.
In the second phase, the participants were
asked to review the responses from Phase
I and rank them on a scale of 1 (low) to 5
(high), based on the following criteria:
plausibility, level of risk, level of
opportunity, and impact on other actors.

The policy options were categorized into six different domains. These were:

Internal
Economic Security
Affairs

Foreign
Social Other
Affairs
THE CROWD
INSIGHTS
The Taliban seeks a non-
interventionist policy with
neighboring countries
The experts argue that in the short term, the Taliban will have to
“[The] Taliban has learnt from its previous stint in the government,
focus inwardly on consolidating its control over Afghanistan and
and it would not want to irritate everyone around but rather would
establishing its regime in the country. As such, the Taliban will
want cordial relations at least with neighbors except Pakistan.”
seek to prevent any potential conflicts and establish cordial
relations with other countries.
– Dr. Nanda Kishor, Head and Associate Professor, Department of
Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of
For India, this means that the Taliban may be open to some
Higher Education
form of engagement in areas of mutual interest to both actors.
A Taliban takeover of Afghanistan
would have severe economic
implications for India
"India’s Connect Central Asia policy will be in danger with the loss
The experts predicted that the takeover of Afghanistan by the
of Afghanistan connecting India with energy surplus Central Asia
Taliban will not only impact India’s projects in Afghanistan but
as a land bridge. The regional trade, transit and connectivity
will also impact regional trade and connectivity projects with
projects will be affected.“
Central Asia, thus endangering its Central Asia policy.
– Dr. Shanthie Mariet Dsouza, Founding Professor, Kautilya
Regionally, India should reach out to the Central Asian countries
School of Public Policy, Hyderabad; Founder-President, Mantraya;
to secure its economic interests on a regional level.
Non-resident Fellow, Middle East Institute
A Taliban takeover of
Afghanistan poses multiple
security risks for India
The experts argue that India will have to deal with multi-
dimensional security concerns on the day after the US
withdrawal from Afghanistan. These range from the spillover
effect in Jammu and Kashmir to the safety of Indians in
Afghanistan.
To mitigate these risks, India needs to work in collaboration with
regional multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) towards counterterrorism.
“The most obvious security risk is the grave impact of Taliban in
Jammu and Kashmir. The Taliban rule in Afghanistan would be a
major gain for Pakistan at least from the perspective of supporting
and promoting terrorism in India. While Pakistan would gain
strategic depth in Afghanistan through the Taliban, in return
Pakistan would get ideological and logistical support from the
Taliban to carry out terror activities in India.”
– Mr. Niranjan Marjani, Columnist at The Times of India
A Taliban victory in
Afghanistan will embolden
anti-India militant groups
Some of the experts argued that the US withdrawal from
Afghanistan will be seen as a Taliban victory and as a model for
other militant groups, including in India. Militant groups in
Kashmir will be emboldened by the Taliban’s victory, and the
activities of ISIS in Afghanistan (ISKP) could also impact India. “Pakistan-sponsored militant groups in Kashmir will be
encouraged to see the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. The
India should therefore partner with Russia and Iran on Islamic State in Afghanistan (ISKP) is likely to flourish, and India is
counterterrorism and intelligence sharing, as both share likely to deal with the spillover impact.”
common interests of dealing with the expansion of ISKP in their
territories. – Dr. Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power
Studies, New Delhi
At the same time, the experts recommended that India continue
putting pressure on Pakistan to curtail its support for anti-India
terror groups.
India may become the site of
an Afghan government in exile
While most of the experts in the simulation did not consider this
possibility, some suggested that following the Taliban takeover
“India currently hosts the Tibetan government in exile, which is an
of Kabul, the closure of the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul,
irritant for China. Following the same strategy, India’s decision
and worsening of ties with the Taliban-led government, New
host the Afghan government in exile (AGE), headed by President
Delhi might decide to host the Afghan government in exile
Ashraf Ghani and two Vice Presidents Amrullah Saleh and Dr.
(AGE).
Abdullah, puts enormous pressure on the Taliban.”
To prepare for this possibility, India should make an
– Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray, Director, Mantraya Research
arrangement for the set up of AGE in India and make this offer
Forum Routray
to the Afghan political elite. This step needs to be taken in close
coordination with the US to receive its recognition for the AGE.
 FROM INDIA'S PERSPECTIVE:
THE FALL OF KABUL
A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation – Insights Report
August 2021

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