Pakistan Relations with India:

Foremost Impediments in
Normalization
 
Subject: Current Affairs-CSS
By: Imran Zahoor
M. Phil-International Relations
M.A Political Science
M.A Diplomacy and Strategic Studies
Diploma in US History
imranzahoor17@gmail.com
 Lecture Outline
• Past Papers Questions
• Pak India Relations: Nature of Questions
• Grounds of Bilateral Relations
• Building Concept
• Peace Initiatives
• Harsh Incidents
Major Constrains: Stabilize Pak & India Relations
• Modi Doctrine: How to Deal with Pakistan?
• Latest Scenario
• Doval’s Strategy against Pakistan
Pakistan’s Policy
• Shifting Indian Calculations
• Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on Pakistan
• Make Better Relations: Recommendations
• Sample- How to Attempt the Question
• Assignment
Past Papers Questions
• What are the major constrains
in the relations and
possibilities to improve the
relations?

• Resolution of Kashmir can

bring peace and prosperity in
the region. Discuss?

• Indo-US warming ties and its

impacts on Pakistan?
 Pak India Relations: Nature of Questions

• Major Constrains in improving

relations.
• Water dispute between two countries.
• Indo US warming Ties: Impacts on
Pakistan
• Indian Involvement in Afghanistan and
its implications on Pakistan.
• Recommendations to make better
relations.
• Kashmir Problem in the prism of
bilateral relations
 Grounds of Bilateral Relations

• Rivalry
• Mistrust
• Hostility
• Jealousy
• Fear
• Suspiciousness
• Belligerence
• Misperception
• Competition
• Exploitation
• Aggressiveness
• Threat
 Building Concept
.

• Critical and Tense Relations

• Several limited border clashes
• Fought three major wars since 1947
• History of joint efforts for resolving
• After every major conflict, they sat down for talks. The
peace
• Peace process is failed in the recent years.
• Series of tensions rises up along the LoC
• Two countries did not escalate to any dangerous point like
– Kargil War
– 2001-02 border standoff
– 2008 Mumbai attacks
Peace Initiatives
• Liaqat-Nehru Pact 1950

• Indus Water Treaty 1960

• Simla Pact 1972

• Lahore Declaration 1999

• Composite Dialogue 2004-08

• Kartarpur Corridor Opening 2019

 Harsh Incidents
• 1948 War
• 1965 War
• 1971 War
• Brass-tacks Exercises 1986
• Nuclear Explosions 1998
• Kargil crisis
• Indian Parliament Attack 2001
• Samjhauta Express bombings 2007
• Mumbai Attacks 2008
• Uri Attack 2016
• Pulwama Attack 2019
• Pakistan Border Combat 2019
Major Constrains: Stabilize
Pak & India Relations
Major Constrains: Stabilize Pak & India Relations

 Ideological and Historical Grudge

 Trust Deficit
 Aggressive Security Doctrines
 Kashmir Issue
 Water Dispute
 Indian Regional Hegemonic Intends
 Terrorism and Non State Actors
 Afghan Factor
 Irresponsible Role of Media
 Blocking People to People Interaction
 Biased Role of International
Community
 Hardliner Leadership
 Modi Doctrine: How to Deal with Pakistan?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s came to power in

2014 
• Modi has pursued a hard-line policy
– Put internal and external pressure on Pakistan
– Change in Pakistan stance towards the jihadists
– End of Pak support on the Kashmir cause
– Engage Islamabad into proxy war in Baluchistan via Kabul.
• Modi policy is based on Washington’s own priorities
in the region :
– Containment of China
– War in Afghanistan the broader war on terrorism.
 Latest Scenario
• Terrorist attacks in Pathankot in January 2016
and Uri in September 2016
– blamed on the jihadists
– triggered an aggressive response of the India
• Dialogue with Pakistan has been rejected
– intense diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan
• India has injected three fresh irritants in the
relations
– Trigger Baluchistan issue
– Threaten to withdrawal from Indus Waters Treaty
– Impose limited war-Surgical strike
 Latest Scenario
• India knows that the success of the Kashmir
insurgency depends on two factors
– its indigenous strength
– Pakistan’s support to Kashmiris.

• Indian strategy is two fold:

– crush the insurgency with extreme measures
– put Pakistan on the defensive position.
• Make Pakistan irrelevant to the Kashmiri struggle
– force the population to bend to the Indian will.
 Doval’s Strategy against Pakistan

 The offensive-defensive mode

 Go into enemy territory
 Tackle the problem where it originated.

 To make it clear, he used the famous phrase:

  You may do one Mumbai; you may lose
Baluchistan

 Strengthening, reviving and ensuring coordination in

intelligence apparatus
 to engage the enemy at its home.
 Doval’s Strategy against Pakistan
 Enhance authority of security agencies
 Control by the bureaucratic set-up
 To deal with cross- border terrorism.
 Harbouring anti-India elements
 To formulate a strict policy in dealing neighbouring
countries

 Ensuring penetration of human intelligence

(HUMINT) at district and local level.
 Doval’s Strategy against Pakistan
 Hook Terrorist organizations by:
 Money
 Weapons
 Manpower
 Logistics
 Training 

 Either Pakistan give up terrorism against India as a

state policy
or
 India would let it bleed with the Taliban.
 Pakistan’s Policy
 Pakistan has made persistent efforts
 to engage India in a meaningful dialogue.

 The basic idea is to bring one fifth of the human population out:
 Misery situation
 A pathway of stability
 Economic prosperity

 Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif proposed four point formula to facilitate dialogue

process
 Ceasefire along the LOC.
 Demilitarization of Siachin Glacier
 Troops withdrawal from Kashmir
 Enhance bilateral Trade
 Pakistan’s Policy

 In the current scenario, the Indian hardliner

leadership is not ready to restart the
composite dialogue
New Delhi emphasizes on a unilateral agenda for
dialogue.
Unacceptable for Pakistan
Shifting Indian
Calculations
 Shifting Indian Calculations

• Significant Regional Convergence

– Pakistan, Russia and China are being closed.

– Need for a settlement in Afghanistan.
– India and the US are being seen as spoilers of
peace in Afghnistan.
 Shifting Indian calculations
• Donald Trump’s anti-Pakistan Policy
• U.S designation Pakistan as a state sponsor of
terrorism is highly unlikely.
– Indian role in Afghanistan is being criticized.
• Without Pakistan Co-operation, durable peace
in Afghanistan is not feasible.
 Shifting Indian calculations

• The Doklam Stand-off

• China has offered India to make a part of CPEC
– A close Xi-Modi summit 2018.
• American impulsiveness and Chinese flexibility
– Push New Delhi to balance relations with China and
U.S.
– China and India nearness can bring Pak –India also
close due to Chinese pressure.
 Shifting Indian calculations
• India has failed to isolate Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s several military operations in FATA have
succeeded to eliminate cross-border terrorism

– India has realized to isolate Pakistan is not practicable

• It is better for India to initiate dialogue with Pakistan

according to changing regional circumstances
 Shifting Indian calculations

• India is unable to suppress Kashmir

Uprising

• Powerless to stop Uprising of the Kashmiri

people since 2017

• Opening a dialogue with Pakistan can help to

stop this revolt.
 Indo US Strategic Partnership
and its Implications on Pakistan
Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

1. The United States has declared India

as long Term strategic partner South
Asia.
2. The United States has granted India
with the status of “Great Power” and
semi legitimate nuclear power.
3. Both countries have reinforced their
relations after post cold war.
4. US support India for NSG
membership and permanent seat in
Security Council
Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

Why US Prefer India to Pakistan?

 India: The World largest democracy
 India: An emerging economic, regional and
tangible military power.
 India: a major market to sell US weapons and
American goods
 India: An instrument to counter China.
 A key factor to stabilize Afghanistan.
 Dynamic role of Indian Diaspora in the
progress of the United States.
Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

Indo US Coalition: Disturbing Power balance

in South Asia
• For America Pakistan: An employ just war
on terror & bring peace in Afghanistan.
• Trump’s Administration believes Pakistan
an unreliable country for the United States.
• Post 9/11, India and the States has signed
number of pacts in military and economic
domain.
• The US tilt toward India has disturbed the
power balance in South Asia with severe
implications on Pakistan.
 Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

 Implications
 Indo US strong Partnership has ceased
Dialogue Process amid India and Pakistan
 Now US is unconcerned to resolve core issue
between India and Pakistan.
 Indo US strong Partnership has made
India more offensive against Pakistan
 Cold Start Doctrine
 Surgical Strike
 Impose Proxy War on Pakistan
 Indo US strong Partnership has pushed
South Asia: A Region of tension and
Nuclear Flash Point
 Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

 Implications
 Indo US strong Partnership is creating
barriers in way of CPEC
 India and US are against the CPEC
 Bothe countries are against the China
 Due to Defense Alliance amid New Delhi
& Washington, the US is supplying the
advanced military hardware and
assistance to India resulted:
 Conventional military imbalance in South
Asia.
 Security Challenges for Pakistan
 Indo US Strategic Partnership and its Implications on
Pakistan

 Implications
 Indo US coalition and US naval support
are compelling Pakistan and China in
Great Game of Indian Ocean
 Raise maritime security challenges for Pakistan
 Chance of navel clashes
 Pakistan has no choice except to raise its naval
budget
 Due to US backing India is using
Afghanistan territory against Pakistan
resulted:
 Trigger Baluchistan insurgency
 Raise terrorist activities in Pakistan
Recommendations to
Make Better Relations
Make Better Relations: Recommendations

1. To Pursue CBMs: Resolve Core Issues

2. Embrace Strategic Stability Regime
3. Evade Security Doctrines
4. Stop Selling Conflict
5. Supplement Civil Society Contacts
6. Address the issue of Non state Actors
7. Trade Confidently
8. Liberalize Visa Policy
9. Optimistic Role of Media
10. Avoid Hostile Statements by Leaders
11. Proactive Role of International
Community
 Sample: How to Attempt the Question
Q:Identify the major constrains to stabilize the Pak & India relations and
suggest practical measures to make better the relations?
 Introductory Paragraph ( 12 to 14 Lines)
 Historical Background (10 to 12 Lines)
 Major Constrains: Stabilize Pak & India Relations
 Ideological and Historical Grudge
 Trust Deficit
 Aggressive Security Doctrines
 Kashmir Issue
 Water Dispute
 Indian Regional Hegemonic Intends
 Terrorism and Non State Actors
 Afghan Factor
 Irresponsible Role of Media
 Blocking People to People Interaction
 Biased Role of International Community
 Hardliner Leadership
 Sample: How to Attempt the Question
Q:Identify the major constrains to stabilize the Pak & India
relations and suggest practical measures to make better the
relations?
 Make Better Relations: Recommendations
 To Pursue CBMs: Resolve Core Issues
 Embrace Strategic Stability Regime
 Evade Security Doctrines
 Stop Selling Conflict
 Supplement Civil Society Contacts
 Address the issue of Non state Actors
 Trade Confidently
 Liberalize Visa Policy
 Optimistic Role of Media
 Avoid Hostile Statements by Leaders
 Proactive Role of International Community
 Conclusion
 Sample: How to Attempt the Question?
Q:Evaluate the critically the Indian involvement in Afghanistan
with its implications on Pakistan and suggest policy
directions to balance anti-Pakistan role of India in
Afghanistan?
 Introductory Paragraph
 Short Background
 Reasons to involvement
• long-lasting rivalry
• Changing picture after 9/11
• Kabul leaning to India
• India got strategic space in Afghanistan
• Counter Strategic depth notions
 Sample: How to Attempt the Question?
How India is executing its
Agenda in Afghanistan
 Grand Embassy Apparatus
 Funding & Training to anti-
Pakistan elements-TTP
 Reconstruction
 Secret mission
 Brainwashing through print
and electronic media
 Scholarship for Afghans
student in Indian universities
 Propaganda
Implications for Pakistan
– Security Dilemma
– Diplomatic segregation in the
region
– Economic Debilitation
– Get higher of terrorism in
Pakistan
– To disrupt CPEC
– Rise up insurgency in
Baluchistan
– To engage Pakistan forces in
border clashes
 Sample: How to Attempt the Question?
Counter Measures
– Alliances with China and Iran:
•  jointly work out a strategy to counter Indian moves.
– Skilful diplomacy
• Pakistan needs to stay relevant in the “endgame” by retaining its links with Pakistan
friendly elements in Afghanistan.
– Projection of soft power
– Strengthening ties with Russia
– Promote Cultural ties with Afghanistan along border areas.
– Tightening the monitoring at Pak-Afghan border
– Initiate political dialogue with Bloch insurgents
– Curb down the sanctuaries of Terrorists in domestically
Conclusion/Analysis/Comment
 Sample- How to Attempt the Question

• Q: What are the major constrains in Kashmir solution and how

can Kashmir solution bring peace and prosperity in the region.
Discuss?
• Introduction
• Historical Basis
• Key Aspects of Kashmir Issue
– Legacy of the Partition of the Sub-continent in 1947
– Right of Self-determination
– An Internationally Recognized Dispute
– An Indigenous Freedom Struggle
Sample- How to Attempt the Question
Constraints in Solving Kashmir Problem
•Ethnic identities and political deadlock
•Political alienation of people of Jammu and Kashmir
•Kashmir: Out of International Agenda
•Rift in Civil military Relations in Pakistan
•India Stereotyped Standing :Kashmir is an integral part of India
•Domestic compulsions of Pakistan politics
•Diversion of issue from political to militancy
•Discontinuity in the Dialogue Process
•Leadership Crisis in Kashmir
•Politics of fear
•Non State actors
 Sample- How to Attempt the Question
• How Kashmir solution can bring prosperity and stability in
the region?
– Reduction of defense budget
– Demilitarization in Kashmir
– Activation of SAARC for regional development
– Increase budget for socio economic and human welfare projects in
both countries
– Boost up Bilateral Trade
– End of religious and extremist networks 
– End of humanitarian suffering and Human rights violations in Kashmir
– Raise in Foreign Direct in both countries in socio economic sectors
• Conclusion
 Assignment

• How India can damage the CPEC by

downbeat propaganda and suggest
the counter measures in term of
response by Pakistan?