CURRENT AFFAIRS

DETERIORATING INDIA-PAK RELATIONS:

REASONS AND WAY FORWARD
SALMAN KHALID (RCTG)

05-11-2020

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SEQUENCE OF THE PRESENTATION

 Currency of the Topic

 Introduction

 Relations in Historical Context

 Current Developments

 Reasons for deterioration of Indo-Pak Relations

 Conclusion

 Way Forward

 References

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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC

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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC

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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC

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INTRODUCTION

 Prosperity of Nations is often associated with the Regional Stability

 Relations with neighbours play a large role in reducing the threat environment

 Pakistan and India share same history, culture, environment, and domestic problems

 Since partition, the relations of both countries have witnessed many highs and lows; mostly lows

 Nuclearization of South Asia and doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)

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 7
Source: The Economist (2012). Fantasy frontiers
RELATIONS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT

1947-48 1971
• Indo-Pak War • 3rd Indo-Pak War

1965 1999
• 2nd Indo-Pak War • Kargil Conflict

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RELATIONS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT

2004-05
2001 • Composite
• Militants attack Dialogue
Indian Parliament established

2003 2008
• Both countries sign • Mumbai
Ceasefire agreement attacks

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CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS

 2013: Ceasefire violations

 2015: Modi makes a surprise visit to the Pakistani eastern city of Lahore on Sharif's birthday

 2nd January, 2016: Attack on Pathankot Air Force Station

 18th September, 2016: Uri attack, India launches “Surgical Strikes”

 14th February, 2019: Pulwama attack

 27th February, 2019: India-Pakistan dogfight

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REASONS FOR DETERIORATION OF RELATIONS

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TRUST DEFICIT

India Pakistan

 Tribal invasion of 1948  India's unwillingness to alter the status quo in

 Pakistan army infiltration during the 1965 war Kashmir

 Indian supportive role for secession of East Pakistan

 1999 Kargil
 India's hand behind anti-state movements
 Pakistan army’s covert support to jihadi organization

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TYPE OF REGIME AND POLITICAL WILL

India Pakistan

 Political parties pay heed to public demand  Pakistan's political culture is termed as 'hybrid

 Rise of nationalist party, BJP regime' - military influences democratic government

 Defence and foreign policies are controlled by

 BJP has adopted an aggressive approach and a policy
military
of disengagement towards Pakistan
 Imbalanced civil-military relations and political

instability

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UNRESOLVED TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

 Unresolved territorial disputes are the main hindrance in good relations between India and Pakistan

 Disputed territories include:

 Kashmir

 Siachen glacier

 Sir Creek

 Kashmir is the flashpoint between the two countries

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STRATEGIC ARMS RACE AND DIFFERENT SECURITY
PERCEPTIONS

 Numerical superiority of India over Pakistan in conventional military means

 Heavy investments of India in defence expenditures to procure latest weapons

 India and Pakistan are caught up in a strategic arms race

 The level of insecurity in South Asia has increased

 India and Pakistan view security in South Asia in different context

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Source: Al-Jazeera, “Nuclear neighbours: The India-Pakistan arms race”, Source: “International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance 2019”,
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10 August, 2017 World Bank
ENCIRCLEMENT POLICY OF INDIA AND PROXY WARS IN
AFGHANISTAN

 India’s policy of ‘Chanakya’ (Kutilya)[1] – encirclement of Pakistan

 Changing alliances in South Asia

 Afghanistan and Iran’s alliance with India

 China’s alliance with Pakistan

 Proxy wars of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan to gain control over it

[1]
“Chanakya's Arthashastra relevant to understand strategic culture: Shivshankar Menon,” India Today, October 9, 2013.
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Source: The Wall Street Journal
BLAME GAME: TERRORIST ATTACKS AND SECESSIONIST
MOVEMENTS

 Terrorism has affected both countries

 India blames Pakistan for any terrorist attack that is carried out in its territory

 Pakistan blames India of meddling in domestic affairs of Pakistan

 Secessionist movements in Balochistan and kind of unrest in other parts;

 Sabotage of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

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EMERGENCE OF COMPETITION OVER NATURAL RESOURCES

 Climate change is a looming threat for both countries

 Severe water shortage in near future due to depletion of natural resources

 India’s threat of abrogation of Indus Water Treaty (IWT)

 Pakistan’s objection over India’s decision to build dams

 Prospects of ‘water wars’

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Source: Pakistan Today, “World Bank reassures mediation over Indus Waters Treaty”, January 26, 2017
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CONCLUSION

The relations between Pakistan and India will determine the future of South Asian region. Instead of fighting
over minor issues, both countries should focus their attention on socio-economic development in their territories. The
menace of poverty, unemployment, climate change, and terrorism are some of the issues that can be better solved
through cooperation rather than in isolation. In addition, Pakistan and India have more to gain in cooperation rather
than in conflict. Its high time that both the countries should shun their intransigence and work on resolving their
territorial disputes, reducing trust deficit, and working on a joint mechanism to fight terrorism.

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WAY FORWARD/RECOMMENDATIONS

 An inclusive framework for resolution of Kashmir dispute

 Joint working mechanism to curb the menace of terrorism

 Demilitarization and initiation of Strategic Arms Restraint regime

 Constructive third-party mediation/bilateral engagement and empowerment of regional institutions

 Enhance trade and liberalize visa regulations

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WAY FORWARD/RECOMMENDATIONS

 Cooperation to stabilize Afghanistan

 Initiate military-to-military officer exchanges and resolution of minor issues

 Encourage people-to-people interaction

 Constructive role of media

 Balancing role of United States of America (USA)

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REFERENCES

1. Anit Mukherjee, “A Brand-New Day or Back to the Future? The Dynamics of India-Pakistan Relations”

2. India Today, “Chanakya's Arthashastra relevant to understand strategic culture: Shivshankar Menon”, October 9, 2013

3. Chari, Cheema and Cohen, “Four Crises”

4. World Bank Report, “South Asia Energy: Potential and Prospects for Regional Trade”, November 8, 2007

5. Nisha Taneja, “Additional Trade Challenges: Transport, Transit, and Non-Tariff Barriers” in Pakistan-India Trade: What
Needs to be Done, What Does it Matter
6. Waqar-un-Nisa, “Pakistan-India Equation: Determinants, Dynamics and the Outlook”, Pluto Journals

7. Ayesha Rana, “Challenges to Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis”

8. Muhammad Sajjad Malik, “Pakistan-India Relations: An Analytical Perspective of Peace Efforts”

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Thank You
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