Foreign Policy of Pakistan – Notes

 Our Foreign Policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the world. We
do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation. We believe in the principle of
honesty and fair play in national and international dealings. Pakistan will never be found lacking in
upholding principles of the United Nations’ Charter. - Quaid-e-Azam, Feb: 1948

Basic principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy

National Security:
 National Security occupies first place in the foreign policy of Pakistan since its
Independence Pakistan’s national security is being threatened by the India because British left
the Kashmir issue unsolved and three wars have been fought by both countries.
 Because of the Kashmir issue, the main principle of Pakistan’s foreign policy is national security.

Economic Interest:
 Pakistan as a developing country also needed to establish and maintain cordial relations with
those states with whom it could maximize its trade relations or from whom it could obtain
maximum economic aid.

Islamic Solidarity:
 Pakistan would pursue its ideological objective and would like to achieve the objective of Islamic
Solidarity by promoting its relations with Islamic world and by preserving its Islamic ideology.

Non Alignment:
 Pakistan had followed the policy of neutrality and had not aligned itself with any block.
 When non-aligned movement was formed it joined it and remained active member of it.

Bilateralism:
 Pakistan has tried to settle its differences with neighboring countries including India through
bilateral negotiations.

United Nations:
 Pakistan has faith in the United Nations and has extended full support to the United Nations
actions by contributing military as well as personnel for implementing its decision.

Peaceful Co-existence:
 Pakistan would believe in peaceful co-existence and would respect the other countries territorial
integrity and sovereignty and non-interference in other’s internal affairs.

Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Objectives

 Promotion of Pakistan as a dynamic, progressive, moderate, and democratic Islamic country.
 Developing friendly relations with all countries of the world, especially major powers and
immediate neighbours.
 Safeguarding national security and geo-strategic interests, including Kashmir.
 Consolidating our commercial and economic cooperation with international community.
 Safeguarding the interests of Pakistani Diaspora abroad.
 Ensuring optimal utilization of national resources for regional and international cooperation.
Three Pillars of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Beijing Riyadh Washington

 Our view and impression today is that we are an overly ideological or conspirational state, stuck in
the old regional quagmire.
 The priority we give to Kashmir and the support given to Taliban regime compromises our
international status and is further weakened by structural political and economic challenges.

Four Triangles of Pakistan’s Foreign policy

USA USA

Pakistan Afghanistan Pakistan China

USA USA

Pakistan India Pakistan Middle East

 Pakistan over the years has lost its crucial role because the other two protagonists opened up to
one another by way of trade, diplomacy or strategic relations.
 US-India Trade: Indian foreign direct investment from India to the U.S. was $7.7 billion at the end
of 20013, growing at approximately 35 percent between 2009 and 2013 and making India the
seventh fastest growing source of FDI in the United States. India and the U.S. have the potential to
be each other’s largest trade and investment partners, with significant benefits for both
economies and peoples.
 China-India Trade: Indian and China have agreed a new $100bn bilateral trade target by 2017, up
from $60bn in 2010.
 US-China Trade: The Deficit is shrinking. US exports to China have risen by about 40%, while US
imports have risen by only about 10%. The World is fast moving towards Geo-Economic Paradigm.
Determinants of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Geo-Strategic:
 “While history has been unkind with Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.”
 Pakistan is located at a junction which has great political, economic and strategic potential.
 Proximity to great powers such as China & Russia, proximity to central Asia & oil rich Middle East
countries are few points that signify the importance of Pakistan`s Geo-strategic location.

Geo-Political:
Pakistan’s policy determinants are a mix of it’s:

 History:
 India and Pakistan became adversaries at independence and have so remained.
 Religious Heritage:
 Pakistan saw itself as a vanguard of independent Muslim states so it built its policy around it.
 The shock of fall of Dhaka resulted in further endorsement.
 Gen. Zia politicized and constitutionalized it with the encouragement of the international
community.
 Our Nuclear Bomb of 1998 is also seen as the Islamic Bomb.

Geo-Economic:
 Mechanisms of Governance oriented towards external alleviation and internal stability.
 Internal resources focused on the attainment and maintenance of systemic stability and not
efficiency.
 Prioritization of human and material resources towards the maintenance of State viability.
 Intra-State conflict leads to lack of economic consensus.

Transition in Foreign policy from Geo-Political to Geo-Economic

 Global Wealth shift from West to Asian countries.
 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
 Kashmir issue for the first time on Pak-US Strategic Dialogue table.
 US needs Pakistan for safe exit from Afghanistan.
 Twist in Pakistan’s foreign policy to maintain a balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
 Global appreciation and acknowledgement of Zarb-e-Azb.
 Policy of non-interference in other neighboring countries, including India, to bring peace and
stability in the region.
 Pakistan’s image as peace cultivating state.
 Escape from the risk of bankruptcy that Pakistan faced in 2013 was a big gain for the country.
Pak-India Relations
 More than six decades after independence, Pakistan-India relations are less extensive than were
those between the United States and the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.
 Since Independence, Pakistan-India relations have been under the shadows of suspicions,
misunderstandings, tensions and wars.
 Both states never succeeded to win the mutual interests of each other because of their
unresolved disputes.
 Myopic approach and lack of co-operation.
 Pakistan-India Relations can be best described as one step ahead and two steps backward.
 India has been seen as continually seeking regional hegemony thus always creating a threat of
insecurity for Pakistan.
 India strives to impose systemic unipolarity whereas Pakistan seeks to maintain Bipolarity. Thus
ensuing divergence of structural interests creates conflict prone regional dynamics.

Conflict over Kashmir

 Since the partition of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan in 1947, the Kashmir dispute
has been an intractable one between them.
 They fought three wars over it in 1948, 1965, and 1999, but have not been able to resolve it.
 South Asia’s peace is hostage to the Kashmiri conflict.
 New Delhi’s heavy handed suppression of dissent and large military foot prints in the portion of
Kashmir it controls alienates Kashmiris, undermines Pakistan's constituencies for peace and
emboldens Jihadi groups and hardliners in the military and civil bureaucracy.
 Terrorist groups in Pakistan, thrive, survive and find recruits on the basis of the Kashmir conflict
and have tried to sabotage India-Pakistan peace parlays on more than one occasion.
 Pakistan’s commitment to resolution is only through dialogue and political means.
 There is a climb down on the Kashmir issue and an increasing focus on Afghanistan and
Baluchistan.

Kargil
 Operation Cold Start.
 In 2005 India announced a new military doctrine called Cold Start, mainly targeting Pakistan as its
potential enemy.
 In November 2009, Indian army chief made a statement that there is a possibility of a limited war
between Pakistan and India in a nuclear overhang.
 In December 2009, Indian chief announced that India is ready to take on both Pakistan and China
in a ‘two front war’ simultaneously.
 These statements spurred a quick reaction in Pakistani media and military establishment.

Indian Military Deployment

 Indian Military deployment remains Pakistan centric.

Indian Propaganda War

 India’s intellectual supremacy and our deficit.
 Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
 Research and Analysis Wing (RAW)
 State Response: Fencing of the Indian Border, Crackdown on Jihadi Groups, The Musharraf
Response.
Non State Actors (Mumbai Mayhem)
 Breakdown of Talks.
 Anti-Pakistan Propaganda.
 Stone Walling of All Pakistani Initiatives.
 “Do More” demand from India.
 Cosmetic Initiatives from India due to International Pressure.
 The Silent Intifada in Kashmir.
 Move on in spite of Pakistan.

Indus Water Treaty

 India is busy building dams on all rivers flowing into Pakistan from occupied Kashmir to regain
control of water of western rivers in violation of Indus Water Treaty.
 This is being done to render Pakistan’s link-canal system, destroy agriculture of Pakistan which is
its mainstay, and turn Pakistan into a desert.
 India has plans to construct 62 dams/hydro-electric units on the Chenab and Jhelum Rivers, which
would render these rivers dry by 2014.
 Using its clout in Afghanistan, India has succeeded in convincing Karzai regime to build a dam on
River Kabul and set up Kama Hydroelectric Project. He has offered technical assistance for the
proposed project, which will have serious repercussions on the water flow in the Indus River.
 India proposes to build a water diversion scheme in Indian Kashmir that would take water from
the Kishan-Ganga River to the Jhelum River before it could reach Pakistani Kashmir.
 India already has 20 hydro projects on the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan, it is now
building other 10 and more are planned.
 Pakistan is not building any reservoirs. Pakistan’s two big dams are silting up.
 Pakistan would like to build one in Azad Kashmir.
 India objects to it.
 2/5 of the Indus flow comes from melting of glaciers in summers.
 Pakistan has no resources to build dams.

Economic
 Pakistan was granted the MFN by India in 1996.
 Pakistan’s specific non trade barriers and breakdown of dialogue process resulted in Pakistan
reciprocating in 2011.
 Indo-Pak trade is largely shaped by pessimism and stands at a meager $ 2.7 million.
 Geo-politics alone determine the thrust of the relations; what has happened was not even
imaginable a year ago. Pakistan and India were not even talking to each other.
 Pakistan’s readymade garment manufacturers association (PRGMEA) stated,
“Granting MFN to India is an economic issue by virtue of which we can gain a foot hold into one of
the fastest growing market in the world. This step can bring millions of rupees to the exchequer in
terms of additional export revenue and bring about job opportunities, thousands of unemployed
youth of Pakistan.”
 It is also more economically sane for both the countries to trade directly than through a third
country or informal means, including mainly Dubai and Singapore, which are free ports and
accommodate legal agents of traders from both India and Pakistan.
 Pakistan and India exchange goods to the tune of $1 billion per annum through traditional sources
like cross border smuggling and personal baggage.
 The obvious reality of indulging in economic diplomacy and increasing the volume of formal trade
between the two countries was always there.
 They were also seen as real projectors of peace and stability in the region but it never happened.
 It is only now that we see a real political will on both sides of the border for this economic
integration to happen.
 Pakistan India trade is a win-win situation.
 India has a middle class of about 3 million people with rising purchasing power.
 Just 10% penetration in Indian market would double the size of Pakistan’s trade with India.
 All studies on India Pakistan trade have so far demonstrated that relaxation in the form of trade
would benefit both the countries.
 MFN status means India can export 6800 items to Pakistan up from around 2000 at present and
boost the bilateral trade to six billion dollars within 3 years.

Pak-US Relations
 The External Alliances that Pakistan sought were United States Centric from SEATO and CENTO.
 The relationship has swung between being the most sanctioned ally to a non NATO front line ally.
 Pakistan remains a utility partner and not a strategic ally.
 Nature of the Relationship even today at best is uneasy with mutual mistrust.
 Washington Capacity to address Pakistan’s concerns is limited, disjointed and lacks political will.
 Pakistan cannot and should not support all of America’s geo-strategic interest in the region.
 The Foreign Policy of Pakistan should align itself with the emerging multi-polarity of the world and
its own national interests.
 Afghanistan Issue:
1. Relationship based on compulsions and constraints on both sides.
2. US Compulsions and Constraints:
 Afghanistan’s End Game - Looking for peace without victory.
 President Obama re-elections depend on his success in Afghanistan (Pakistan is a Key Player).
 Al Qaeda and Taliban.
 Haqqani Network - Drone Attacks; Incursions by NATO; Restoration of NATO supply lines.
 Pakistan Compulsion and Constraints:
1. Geography.
2. Economy.
3. Energy.
4. Military.
5. International Isolation.
6. Strategic Depth, which is now strategic vulnerability.
7. Strategic Space for India.
 What US has done for Pakistan:
1. Assistance for Development Projects.
2. Fast Track Delivery of Military Hardware.
3. Some sensitivity regarding Pakistan’s Concern vis-à-vis India (Strategic Space no real
commitment).
4. Largest donor in post flood devastations.
 What Should Pakistan Do:
1. We were an Indian Centric State but now we have become US Centric in our desire to address
our regional concerns on both Eastern and Western Borders.
 2. Do the balancing act.
3. Cultivate regional powers.
4. Create options.
5. Address internal chaos.
 What US has not done for Pakistan in spite of War on Terror Commitment and Sacrifices:
1. Preferential Trade Agreement.
2. India Pakistan Equation.
3. Civil Nuclear Deals.
4. Respect for Pakistan’s Territorial Sovereignty.
5. Working behind Pakistan’s back.

US-India Relations
 US-India have opened up to one another through trade, diplomacy or strategic relations.
 U.S. is using “Asia Pivot” policy to co-opt a large number of countries stretching from Japan to
India, to contain China.
 Post-U.S. withdrawal coordination in Afghanistan, and the need for maritime security in Asia.
 U.S. need India as a strategic ally to contain and counterweight the emergence of strong China-
Russia nexus expected to be followed by Pakistan as a key actor.
 India and the U.S. have the potential to be each other’s largest trade and investment partners,
with significant benefits for both economies and peoples.
 Russia’s military cooperation agreement with Pakistan last November (the first since the fall of the
Soviet Union) has intensified India and U.S. concerns.
 Post 2008 Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, waiver to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (48 nations cartel) was
granted to India under U.S. pressure during Bush Administration.
 During 2014, U.S. and India announced India-U.S. Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI),
including coproduction of the Raven unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an “intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance” module for the Lockheed Martin-manufactured C-130J
transport.
 Trade and investment is one of the key strengthening and enduring bilateral relations between
India and the U.S.
 During 2014, U.S. trade with India touched an all-time exports and imports close to $67 billion.
 Policy to counsel nuclear restraint to Pakistan and selling state-of-the-art conventional weapons
to India.
 The United States, over the period 1946-2012, has given India the largest amount of economic
assistance amounting to $65.1bn.

Pak-China Relations
 Pakistan has a long and symbiotic relationship with China. The long-standing ties between the two
countries have been mutually supportive.
 A close identity of views and mutual interests remain the hallmark of bilateral ties. Since the 1962
Sino-Indian War, Pakistan has supported China on most issues of importance to the latter,
especially those related to the question of China's sovereignty like Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet and
other sensitive issues such as human rights.
 1950 - Pakistan becomes the third non-communist country, and first Muslim one, to recognize the
People's Republic of China.
 1978 - The Karakoram Highway linking the mountainous Northern Pakistan with Western China
officially opens.
 1999 - A 300-megawatt nuclear power plant, built with Chinese help in Punjab province, is
completed.
 2008 - China and Pakistan sign a free trade agreement.
 2015- Pakistan China Economic Corridor.
 Pak-China relations are based on “Time-tested” & “All Weather Friendship” and convergence of
interests.
 Historically supported Pakistan against the rivalry of India.
 Supported on diplomatic, military and economic front since 1960s.
 Chinese investment in the net FDI Pakistan has received in Jul-Jan 2015-16 stands at 63.1%, more
than double from 30% a year ago.
 In the Asia-Pacific, China’s advancement in the South China Sea has exacerbated tensions with
other Asia-Pacific allied with the U.S. China needs allies to change the world order and it begins
with Pakistan.

Emerging Trends
 Historic visit of President Xi Jinping with signing of 51 agreements worth $46 billion.
 Instrumental in initiating the full of membership of Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO).
 CPEC and economic integration with China will provide Pakistan economic gains and a balance to
its relationship with its larger neighbours.

Pak-Afghanistan Relations
 Pak-Afghanistan relations are based on trust deficit since the inception of the former.
 Formation of Unity Government in Afghanistan brought significant improvement in bilateral
relations.
 Cross border raids are occurring from both sides of the Durand Line.
 Intensification of hostilities following the withdrawal of foreign troops with less contingency
troops in different parts of Afghanistan.
 2015 was the worst year on record for civilian casualties in Afghanistan.
 Pakistan is the largest stakeholder to a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan and the peace in
Pakistan is linked with peace in Afghanistan.
 Confidence and trust building measures between Pakistan and Afghanistan Government are on
page.
 Pakistan has so much intractably involved in the quagmire that despite sincere efforts in pursuit of
peace, it still comes under severe criticism from the Afghan government.

Emerging Trends
 Sincere efforts and commitment of Pakistan to bring peace in Afghanistan under Quadrilateral
Coordination Group (QCG) initiative.
 Refusal by Taliban to join peace talks is a major setback to the peace process.
 Further delay in NATO troops exit is a real impediment to peace in Afghanistan.
 The stalemate on transit trade route access on both sides.
 Poor border management question and blame game.
Pak-Middle East Relations
 Religious Holy Land link.
 Pakistan has traditionally attached much importance to its relations with the Muslim countries as
a part of its commitment to the notion of the ‘Ummah’ or Muslim Universalism.
 Support for the Palestinian cause.
 Non-Partisan Policy: concrete military support to Syria in the 1973 Arab-Israel war. Supplied 5,000
troops to Saudi Arabia against the backdrop of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
 Developed multifaceted relations in economic and security fields with Arab states such as Saudi
Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states.
 Quid pro quo: For the Petro bonanza by Middle Eastern states, Pakistan helped in building their
armies, airlines and media in return.
 Tilt in Pakistan’s policy vis- a-vis Middle East came after the Iranian Revolution, i.e. in favour of
conservative monarchies as compared to radical states such as Syria, Libya and Iran.
 Policy to build warm relations with all Middle Eastern states turned into partisan due to the
political turmoil and polarization of the Middle East.

Emerging Trends
 Pakistan’s policy to remain neutral in ongoing intra-Arab conflict prevented the fault-lines and
sectarian divide present in the country to be further disturbed.
 The Middle East would likely stay a precarious course in the coming years.
 Proximity, energy reliance, a large Pakistan immigrant population and traditional links will be
crucial to maintain policy of non-interference for Pakistan in Middle East turmoil.