Intro of relations - Shashi (Pak remains India’s biggest FP challenge)

Causes of Conflict

• Hussain Haqqani
o Social constructivist = Relations oppressed by weight of past history of bloody partition,
domestic politics and ideology - Pathalogical obsession and paranoia of elites
o Kashmir issue – single biggest contention but Resolution of Kashmir not a soltn
o Pak army not strategically interested in peace - has revisionist motives
o Pak's identity as 'not India' - quest for parity has fuelled it to become client state of first
USA and now China

• Stephen P Cohen Shooting for the century –

o Paired minority conflict like Jews/Palestinians
o Security Dilemma - Mutually hurting stalemate - Pak cant win the war, India cant lose
the war - Undergone 3 conventional wars
o Sees nuclear overhang as shield to neutralise India’s Conventional military superiority
and continue cross border terrorism numerous terrorist attacks (2002, 2008 and 2018) -
Strategy of ‘death by thousand cuts’ and ‘bleeding India to death’.

India’s policy

S Haider –

• No Overarching policy, only ad hocism, series of missteps and misunderstandings

• oscillated like a pendulum – fought military battles, diplomatic battles, Frequently given in to
romanticized sentimentalism about Pakistan

Rajesh Basrur - trajectory

1. Nehru's idealism and - miscalculation of Pak's ambition – thought Pak will come back to India -
Focussed on China
2. I.Gandhi brought realism – 1971 intervention and ended up breaking Pakistan
3. Gujaral - Social constructivist
4. Vajpayee - Fucntionalist - Bus Diplomacy
5. Manmohan - Eco Interdependance - MFN status

Now, Modi –
1. Cooperation Defection cycles – (Kanti Bajpai) - blame and shame, isolate via FATF
2. Blame and Shame (Terroristan; Ivy League of Terrorism)
3. Isolate Pakistan (FATF, UNGA, SAARC)
4. Trade - Removed MFN status (Trade: $2.3 bn – India exports $1.8bn)
5. Strategic restraint to strategic resolve - as shown in Uri and Balakot strikes (Defensive
Offense)
6. Going beyond prism of Pak - strengthening relations with West Asia - especially SA, UAE and
Qatar
Criticism of current policy

1. No concrete gain – Strain in ties increased - Securitisation of Pak threat leading to India's
containment in S Asia - India will risk internationalizing the issue since external powers are
getting involved (Happymon J)
2. Daniel Markey
a. Hardline approach and Pak's Tit for Tat makes situation worse
b. Hyper activism recipe for disaster
c. Missing negotiation dangerous and counter-productive
d. Ambiguity empowers subversive elements

Reason for cooperation

• Value of keeping the door of negotiations open

• India’s image as a responsible player
• Imperatives of nuclear stability in south Asia
• Futility of military options to terrorist attacks

Suggestions for FP

1. Shashi Tharoor - Social constructivism (continue dialogue, backchannel diplomacy, Increase

people to people contact - Collaboration as in dialogues, trade, banking networks, power sharing,
P2P relations, visa liberalization, joint basin management)
2. How India See the world: Maintain pressure points like Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan and
Afghanistan, IWT and maintain all levers including covert and overt – Intl pressure via IMF,
FATF, Saudis.
3. CRM - Engagement with Rawalpindi than Islamabad as army controls the levers
4. We can resolve other issues like Siachen and Sir Creek like we did Kartarpur Sahib, so that it has
spillover effect for overall peaceful environment.
5. Real changes in Pakistan's policy will require time and patience - When the time is right,
solutions will emerge, as has happened with other long-divided countries like Germany and
Vietnam.
6. Response to terror attacks
a. Realist - Rajiv Sikri – continue aggressive diplomacy, cant bow down to terrorism
b. Remember Clausewitz - War is an act of senseless passion
c. MK Narayan - Act with restraint - image of mature country -> It is a game of chess, it
doesn’t always pay to use the same moves to frustrate the opponent
d. At the same time, India should address Kashmir grievances, stem radicalisation in bud)

Concl - It needs to be understood that in the world of complex interdependence, if not good relations at-
least normalisation of relations should be a long term objective. Creative statecraft and out of box
diplomacy are required to deal with hydra headed Pakistan
 Pulwama attacks -> Balakot strikes

Give brief General Intro then

Undergone 3 conventional wars and numerous terrorist attacks (2002, 2008 and 2018). Pak not been able
to defeat India with conventional warfare. As a weaker of the two tries to gain strategic parity with
nuclear weapons. Using nuclear umbrella, it first tries to neutralize India’s Conventional military
superiority and second wages low intensity warfare under policy of thousand cuts.

India’s choices extremely limited and it adopted policy of strategic restraint.

However, even after Uri attacks, India went for surgical strikes - offensive defense
1. Time come for calling out Pak’s nuclear bluff taking high risk
2. Credibility of India as net security provider is at stake

Balakot Concerns – Ashley Tellis

• pre-emptive self defence airstrikes
• Unique as
o It went deep into PoK
o For the first time since 1971, air force crossed LoC –
o First time a nuclear power militarily entered territory of
another nuclear power
o Apart from it, govt engaged in diplomatic isolation policy
• Reminded Pak of its pledge of 2004 – not to allow its territory to
be used against India
• Underlying issue of Kashmir remains so no end to
Jihadi terrorism
• Raising the ante with Pakistani may lead to
situations of war and unnecessary wastage of
resources.
• Pakistan being a pivot state will not attract
permanent hostility of nations like USA and Saudi
Arabia.

Gains (Zorawar Daulat Singh)

• India has the right to pre-emptive self defence - a right that has so
far been the exclusive privilege of western powers.
• Challenging the costless proxy war being waged by Pakistan for
past 3 decades.
• Active defence has now been incorporated in policy.
• Gained global recognition of the Pakistani terrorism and
vindication of Indian stance.
Q Has India been able to isolate Islamabad?
1. Yes and No
2. Yes
a. HV Pant - India’s multi-pronged strategy of using various instrumentalities of power —
legal, diplomatic, economic and military — seems to have had some effect in shaping
Pakistan’s behaviour.
i. Return of IAF pilot Abhinandan – pressure of Saudis etc
ii. ICJ - allowing consular access to K Jadhav,
iii. Kartarpur negotiations,
iv. FATF - Actions of Hafiz Saeed - increased difficulty to procure even emergency
credit lines from IMF
v. In UN, Pak has lost credibility with highest number of UN sanctioned terrorists
Pakistan based
vi. Statement by Pakistan's foreign minister demonstrates Islamabad's growing
discontent with Riyadh.
3. No – Intl community still courts it

Why is Pakistan courted by international community

Pax Indica:
• The tyranny of geography - international actors are dependent on Pakistan for stability in
Afghanistan.
• That along with China’s geo-political ambitions has made Pakistan the ‘pivot state’ -
o China - pol, econ, military support to Pak - CPEC
• US has been making Pak a strategic partner in GWOT - continued military transfers,
exercises and aid.
• Iran has conducted PASSEX and was formally asked to join CPEC
• Enjoys support of Muslim world - OIC support
• Pakistan cant be allowed to fail as it has nuclear capabilities - may mean weapons going in
hands of non-state actors

3rd party mediation to solve India Pak dispute

1. Pakistan has requested Trump Administration multiple times esp in wake of Pulwama strikes and
Balakot strikes + special status to JnK revocation
2. It has warned of a nuclear catastrophe in S Asia
3. However, India denies role of any third party
1. Simla Agreement - 1972 - Both countries will "settle their differences by peaceful means
through bilateral negotiations thus, had denied any third party intervention even that of
United Nations
 3 options with India
Indus Water Treaty - 1960
• Suspend PIWC meets - Pakistan cannot escalate to other
• World Bank meditated treaty for mgmt. of Indus River water
stages
system
• Maximize use of 20% water from CJI
• Brahma Chellany - unique - upper riparian state -
• Come out of treaty - as China has built a dam on Indus in
disadvantage
Ladakh
• India – given control Eastern rivers : SBR
• Pak – control over Western Rivers
o India allowed to use 20% of CJI - non-consumptive Why should India not come out (Suhasini Haider)
purposes
• India has 16% allocation of total water of Indus river system • China - Brahmaputra
• International Image of India - irresponsible player
Other Provisions - dispute redressal • Lose the high moral ground
• Nuclear strike - Pak has mentioned - water for nukes
• Flooding
• Permanent Indus water commission (PIWC)
• Neutral experts
• PCA Way forward

Issues • Brahma Chellany - suggest for renegotiating the treaty

keeping in mind new geopolitical realities
• On renegotiation of the treaty: Amb. Vivek Katju says
• Resentment in J&K people
that any attempt at renegotiations is only going to further
• Pakistan’s obstructionist approach on Kishanganga, Ratle:
India’s interest as no more concessions are possible.
Zero-sum approach (India’s gain=Pak loss)
• On future: TCA Raghvan says that treaty itself gives the
o Pak insecurity of India using to flood/create droughts
scope of future negotiations and a joint river basin
• Climate Change and rising deficits
authority can be on the cards for mutual benefits

Kartarpur Sahib

A visa-free border crossing between India and Pakistan. It allows Sikh devotees from India to visit the
Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Kartarpur, Pakistan.

A good initiative?
A. Yes sir, it will allow easing of tensions between India and Pakistan and is a further steps towards
boosting people-to-people relations.

Q. Do you see any issues with the initiative?

A. One issue that is being raised is that Pakistan may use Khalistan issue to instigate further trouble.
However this is an issue which can be dealt with.

Q. What can be done to deal with issue?

A. On domestic front, India should ensure that instability does not occur, any anti-national activities are
monitored closely and curbed and Sikh community feels integrated with India and that any grievances are
addressed through constitutional means. This will give more confidence to our citizens.
Also, India can use the corridor to find out Pakistani plans.
 CPEC

• China-Pak didn’t have close relations till 1962 war, after which they grew
• Publicly declared as - Higher, Deeper, Sweeter
• 2006 - China-Pak - Treaty of Friendship, cooperation and good neighbour relations
• China-Pak relations
o Pak-China is not joint partnership, but patron-client relationship- Vivek Katzu
o Pakistan is very dependent on China

Andrew Small
(Importance of CPEC to China)
Christian Wagner (Importance of CPEC to Pak)
• China Pak Axis
• Additional lever in India-Pak relations
• Utility of Pak - Containing India
• More free hand in Kashmir
• Security related - Xinjiang
• Neutral stand of China on Kashmir ends
• Gateway into West & C Asia – oil supplies
• Gwadar port – civil-military fusion - entry to Indian Ocean

Challenges to India Way forward

1. Besides challenging India’s sovereignty it has many other consequences • Economic interdependence - Manoj Joshi
as well o Participation on condition that
2. Geo-strategic Angle Islamabad and China open cross-
3. Indian China- Containment and Counter Containment South Asian trade routes.
4. China’s Malacca Dilemma ends ; India’s Gwadar Dilemma begins • Realist view
5. Geo-economic angle • Jaishankar: no compromise with Indian
6. It will undermine the economic-interdependence between India and Pak. sovereignty
7. Instead of INSTC, Pak on E-W corridor
8. Culturally West Asian
9. Economically in Chinese zone
10. No point in integration with South Asia
11. Policy of isolation of Pak will be irrelevant with CPEC
12. CPEC - expression of New Economic & Strategic Geography

Challenges to CPEC
o Pakistani debt crisis and low reserves. CPEC has put Pakistan deeper into debt- Danger
of going Malaysian way (Mahathir cancelled contracts)
o Extremism in the region. Eg Attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi.
o Chinese high-handedness in dealing with locals in business as well as in security
measures - China’s debt trap and opaque projects a concern for Pakistan
o Saudi Arabia has pulled out of CPEC
Pakistan and democracy
• Pakistan is officially a parliamentary democracy
• Example of state bonapartism or overdeveloped state.
• Morris Jones once famously commented that only political institutions in Pak were coup and
mob.
• 2nd time that transition of power has occurred from one democratically elected government to
another; according to Indian and European observers, elections were very fair.
• Nonetheless, the more things change the more they remain same
• Other states have army, here army has a state
• Large political violence, religious extremist groups like JuD fighting elections.
• Pak. Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency has shown that entire pre-poll
process was unfair.
• Mohd. Ayoob (“Imran Khan and future of India”): The speculation of Imran Khan and future of
India is a waste exercise based on false assumption that foreign policy of Pakistan is determined
by its civilian government.
• Christine Fair: In Machiavellian terms, any politician in Pak trying to have his/her own policy
with India will necessarily come to grief.
• Conclusion:
o Uncertain times are ahead.
o South Asia has been an exception to Democratic Peace Theory. Democracy in Nepal,
Bhutan, Maldives have made relations worse with India.
o China on the other hand has improved its relations.
o This shows diplomacy rather than democracy decided inter-state relations.

Pak’s Crumbling economy

Currency depreciated by 20% in 2019 to 135. Forex $8bn only. IMF bailout - West doesn't want a failed
Pak which is nuclear coz it's Geo strat important. Cant let it go directly into Chinese arms. India can
exploit the situation.