COLLEGE OF INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES

Instructional Material for students

MODULE 3:
STATICSTICAL INDUCTION
PROBABILITY OF SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
Course overview

The course introduces the students to various methods of statistical analyses as applied in various industries and
enterprises. Through the use of primary statistical techniques, the students attain a meaningful understanding of
statistical reasoning within the context of management decision-making. Topics essentially focus on statistical
description, statistical induction, and analysis of statistical relationship.

Objectives

After successful completion of this module, the student can be able to;
• Identify their learning outcomes and expectations for the course;
• Recognize their capacity to create new understandings from reflecting on the course;
• Know the Statistical Induction, Probability of Sample Spaces and Events

Module Content:
 Statistical Induction
o Concept of Probability
o What is Inductive Reasoning
o Types of Inductive Reasoning
o Inductive Reasoning vs. Abductive Reasoning
 Probability of Sample Space and Events
o Counting Techniques
o Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem
o Probability and Counting Techniques
 Supplemental Videos

Statistic Induction
Statistical Induction Principle
Inductive statistics is way for scientists to make evidence-based decisions based on empirical/experimental results. It
is widely based on the probability theory. As humans, we think in 2 different ways:
  in a deductive way;
 in a inductive way.
Contents
1 Deductive Thinking
2 Inductive Thinking

Deductive Thinking
It is a process where we take into account already valid assumptions, laws, principles to reach a conclusion for a
specific case. Mathematics clearly demonstrate this way of thinking when we use abstract mathematical models to
reach to various conclusions.

Example: When a physician uses a gold-standard drug, he uses it because he made his/her decision deductively. The
individual case (the patient) has the specific disease that the drug can treat, so he/she will use it.

Inductive Thinking
Inductive thinking, in contrast to deductive thinking, follows the opposite direction. For example, we observe new
data for a new drug, and we want to reach to a generalized conclusion. Therefore, inductive thinking enables us to
create general conclusions based on observation of individual cases. However, conclusions of inductive thinking
procedures are influenced by subjective attitudes (of the observer) and have limited validity.

Example: "a new biological marker has shown significant increase when tested in individuals of a particular disease,
90% of the times". We can induce that this marker is linked to the disease one way or another, thus by testing it, we
can detect the presence of a disease. However, in the above experiment, there were 10% of cases that did not show
an increased value of the marker – this can be due to errors in the design of the experiment or observer error.

The error in the above trial, and in any other trial, can be quantified (i.e.: enumerated) within a certain degree of
confidence, which is standardized among all statistical studies (i.e.: level of significance). In this way we can
substitute the subjective (unquantified error) inductive thinking with objective inductive thinking, based on concepts
and methods of the probability theory.

Methods of inductive statistics (so called statistical induction) can under given assumptions to make general
conclusions and to objectively enumerate their degree of confidence. The main aim of inductive statistics is to
elaborate procedures how to create general conclusions from empirical data that can substitute subjective inductive
thinking by objective inductive thinking based on concepts of probability theory.

Two important concepts play a central role in methods of inductive statistics:

 Population;
 Sample.

If we use a sample to draw a generalized conclusion, inductive statistics can enumerate the probability of a
statement being valid for the whole population. Of course, the large the sample, the more valid the conclusion is, as
it reflects more closely the whole population.

Basic Concepts of Probability

A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probabilities can be
expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and they can also be expressed as percentages ranging from 0% to 100%.
A probability of 0 indicates that there is no chance that a particular event will occur, whereas a probability of 1 indicates that
an event is certain to occur. A probability of 0.45 (45%) indicates that there are 45 chances out of 100 of the event
occurring.

The concept of probability can be illustrated in the context of a study of obesity in children 5-10 years of age who are
seeking medical care at a particular pediatric practice. The population (sampling frame) includes all children who were seen
in the practice in the past 12 months and is summarized below.

Unconditional Probability

If we select a child at random (by simple random sampling), then each child has the same probability (equal chance)
of being selected, and the probability is 1/N, where N=the population size. Thus, the probability that any child is
 selected is 1/5,290 = 0.0002. In most sampling situations we are generally not concerned with sampling a specific
individual but instead we concern ourselves with the probability of sampling certain types of individuals. For example,
what is the probability of selecting a boy or a child 7 years of age? The following formula can be used to compute
probabilities of selecting individuals with specific attributes or characteristics.

P(characteristic) = # persons with characteristic / N

Thinking icon signifying quiz questions for students

Try to figure these out before looking at the answers:

What is the probability of selecting a boy?

What is the probability of selecting a 7 year-old?
What is the probability of selecting a boy who is 10 years of age?
What is the probability of selecting a child (boy or girl) who is at least 8 years of age?

Conditional Probability

Each of the probabilities computed in the previous section (e.g., P(boy), P(7 years of age)) is an unconditional
probability, because the denominator for each is the total population size (N=5,290) reflecting the fact that everyone
in the entire population is eligible to be selected. However, sometimes it is of interest to focus on a particular subset
of the population (e.g., a sub-population). For example, suppose we are interested just in the girls and ask the
question, what is the probability of selecting a 9 year old from the sub-population of girls? There is a total of
NG=2,730 girls (here NG refers to the population of girls), and the probability of selecting a 9 year old from the sub-
population of girls is written as follows:

P(9 year old | girls) = # persons with characteristic / N

where | girls indicates that we are conditioning the question to a specific subgroup, i.e., the subgroup specified to
the right of the vertical line.

The conditional probability is computed using the same approach we used to compute unconditional probabilities. In
this case:

P(9 year old | girls) = 461/2,730 = 0.169.

This also means that 16.9% of the girls are 9 years of age. Note that this is not the same as the probability of
selecting a 9-year old girl from the overall population, which is P(girl who is 9 years of age) = 461/5,290 = 0.087.

Thinking icon signifying a question for students

What is the probability of selecting a boy from among the 6 year olds? Answertext annotation indicator

What is inductive reasoning?

Inductive reasoning is a method of logical thinking that combines observations with experiential information to reach a
conclusion. When you can look at a specific set of data and form general conclusions based on existing knowledge from past
experiences, you are using inductive reasoning.

For example, if you review the population information of a city for the past 15 years, you may observe that the population
has increased at a consistent rate. If you want to predict what the population will be in five years, you can use the evidence
or information you have to make an estimate.

Examples of inductive reasoning

Even if you haven’t heard of inductive reasoning before, you’ve likely used it to make decisions in a professional
environment. Here are a few examples of how you might apply the inductive reasoning process in a professional
environment:

 After analyzing high-performing and successful employees in the marketing department, a recruiter recognizes they
all graduated with a degree in business, marketing or journalism. She decides to focus on future recruiting efforts on
candidates with a degree in one of those three disciplines.
 A salesperson notices when they share testimonials from current and past clients with their prospects, they’re 75
percent more likely to make a sale. Now they share testimonials with all prospects to improve their close rate.
 Taking time to review comments from past customers is always beneficial. In addition to a positive customer review,
you can share with future clients, it can also inform you of any problems past customers may be experiencing.
 After noticing assisted living center residents’ moods improve when young children visit, an activities leader develops
a volunteer initiative with local schools to pair students with center residents.
 By taking time to look for and identify patterns in positive business outcomes, you can inform future efforts and
recreate your success.

Types of inductive reasoning

There are various ways to use inductive reasoning depending on the situation. Here are the three most commonly used types
of inductive reasoning:

Inductive generalization

In this type of inductive reasoning, a situation is presented, you look at evidence from past similar situations and draw a
conclusion based on the information available.

Example: For the past three years, the company has beat its revenue goal in Q3. Based on this information, the
company will likely beat its revenue goal in Q3 this year.

Statistical induction

This type of inductive reasoning utilizes statistical data to draw conclusions.

Example: 90 percent of the sales team met their quota last month. Pat is on the sales team. Pat likely met his sales
quota last month.

In this case, you are using statistical evidence to inform your conclusion. While statistical induction provides more
context for a possible outcome or prediction, it is crucial to remember new evidence may vary from past research
and can prove a theory incorrect.

Induction by confirmation

Induction by confirmation allows you to reach a possible conclusion, but you must include specific assumptions for the
outcome to be accepted. This type of inductive reasoning is used often by police officers and detectives. Here’s an example:

Renee broke into a building.

Anybody who breaks into a building will have opportunity, motive and means.

Renee was in the area and had lock picks in his bag.

Renee likely broke into the building.

In this situation, you develop a theory, and to prove it true, you must have specific evidence. Knowing that Renee was in the
area where the building was broken into and had a lock pick in his bag are strong points to him being the one who broke into
the building. Understanding the various types of inductive reasoning allows you to better implement them in your day-to-day
operations within the workplace.

When to use inductive reasoning

Inductive reasoning is not always the best way to reach a conclusion. Here are the pros and cons of using this decision-
making method:

The benefits of inductive reasoning

Inductive reasoning allows you to work with a wide range of probabilities. The assumptions you make from presented
evidence or a specific set of data are practically limitless. However, inductive reasoning presents you with a starting point so
you can narrow down your assumptions and reach an informed conclusion.
Inductive reasoning also allows you to develop multiple solutions to one issue and utilize your research to evaluate another
hypothesis. It allows you to leverage knowledge gathered from past experiences to form judgments and make decisions in
new situations.

The limits of inductive reasoning

One weakness of inductive reasoning is also one of its most significant strengths—you are only able to establish theories
based on limited evidence or knowledge. While it provides you with the opportunity to explore, it also limits the foundation
available for you to use.
For example, if you observe 100 cats and notice they all hiss at dogs, you may conclude that every cat will hiss at dogs.
While this is sound reasoning, the data you are using is limiting. Because you only observed 100 cats, your conclusion may
not be true for every cat.

When using inductive reasoning, it’s important to recognize there is always room for error. While your guess or theory may
be incorrect in some cases, you can use that information to help you continue your research.

While you can use data and evidence to back up your claim or judgment, there is still a chance that new facts or evidence
will be uncovered and prove your theory wrong. That’s why it’s important to learn to use inductive reasoning skills in
conjunction with other types of reasoning.

How to demonstrate your inductive reasoning skills

Professionals who possess logical thinking abilities—like inductive reasoning skills—are often better at decision-making
efforts. That’s why you must highlight this skill throughout the job search and hiring process.
Inductive reasoning skills on your resume

While you can list this soft skill on a resume, it’s especially important if an employer specifically mentions inductive reasoning
or critical-thinking skills in the job listing or description. Consider providing a specific example of when you used inductive
reasoning skills in the workplace on your cover letter.

Inductive reasoning skills in an interview

During a job interview, an employer may ask about your decision-making process. Take time to think about specific instances
when you used inductive reasoning, especially when it resulted in a positive outcome. Providing a clear example can help
prove to employers you’re able to make insightful observations, retain information and apply your knowledge to make well-
informed decisions on the job.

Inductive reasoning skills using the STAR method

Utilizing the STAR (Situation, Task, Action and Result) technique is an effective method for communicating your inductive
reasoning skills to potential employers clearly and concisely. Here are the steps for using the STAR method:

1. Describe the situation. Where were you working? What was your role in the project or task?

2. Describe the task. What was your specific responsibility? What problem or issue did you face? What observations
did you make?

3. Explain in detail the action you took. What conclusion did you reach? How did you translate your conclusion into
an actionable solution?

4. Share the result. How did your actions address the problem? What was the outcome, and how did it affect the
company or team?

Understanding inductive reasoning and how to effectively apply this logical thinking process in your work environment is
essential to success in any position. Learning to recognize your inductive reasoning skills will help you highlight them during
your job search and make a positive impression on employers during the interview process.

Inductive reasoning vs. deductive and abductive reasoning

Reasoning skills are one of the most important soft skills employers seek in potential candidates. In addition to inductive
reasoning, there are two other types of reasoning—abductive and deductive—that are important to understand and apply
both in and outside of the workplace.

Inductive vs. deductive reasoning

Where inductive thinking uses experience and proven observations to guess the outcome, deductive reasoning uses theories
and beliefs to rationalize and prove a specific conclusion. The goal of inductive reasoning is to predict a likely outcome, while
the goal of deductive reasoning to prove a fact.

Both types of reasoning bring valuable benefits to the workplace. Employers specifically like to see inductive reasoning on
applications because it highlights your aptitude for critical thinking and problem-solving. In addition to including, it on your
resume, note it in your cover letter and at the interview.

Example of inductive reasoning: "I am addicted to coffee."

"I get tired if I don’t drink coffee." Example of deductive reasoning:

"Coffee is addictive."
 "Human beings need breath to live." "You must need breath to live."
"You are a human."

Inductive vs. abductive reasoning

Abductive reasoning allows for more guessing than inductive reasoning. For abductive reasoning, you analyze information or
observations that may not be complete. You can guess or hypothesize possible outcomes based on the available information.

The medical field often uses abductive reasoning when making diagnoses in the absence of information such as test results.
For example, when a patient presents symptoms, medical professionals work to develop a logical answer or a diagnosis
based on the minimal information they have to develop a conclusion.

While abductive reasoning allows for more freedom than inductive or deductive reasoning, it can also result in several
incorrect conclusions before you uncover the true answer.

Probability of Samples Spaces and Events

The sample space is all the possible outcomes of an event. When throwing a six-sided die, the sample space is
1,2,3,4,5,6 and the event that we roll a 2 has a 1/6 probability.
Sample space
The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of this experiment. So, when tossing a coin, the
sample space consists of two elements: Head and tail. It can be denoted S = {h,t}. The sample space for rolling a six-sided
die are the six possible outcomes of one to six and can be denoted: S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
 
Events
An event is a happening. It can be that you flip a head with a coin. The event that you flip a head could be expressed as
event A and denoted: A = {head}. Another event, event B, could be to throw an odd number with the die, so B ={1,3,5}.
 
Probability
Referring to the event A and the event B defined above, we can denote the following probabilities:
 “The probability of event A occurring is 0.5” is denoted P(A)=0.5
 “The probability of event B occurring is 0.5” is denoted P(B)=0.5
 
Venn diagrams
Venn diagrams converts the probabilities into a visualization. Let’s take the example that you roll a die again:
 Let A be the event that you roll a 4, 5 or 6 and that you
 Let B be the event that you roll 2, 3 or 4:
 
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A = {4, 5, 6}

B = {2, 3, 4}

P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = {4}

P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

 
P(A ∩ B): Joint probability or intersection
Say you throw a standard six-sided die and define the following events:
 Event A = Probability of throwing less than 5
 Event B = Probability of throwing an odd number
 Sample Space = S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
 A = {1,2,3,4}
 B = {1,3,5}
 P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = {1,3}
 P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
 What’s the probability of event A and event B to occur as you throw the die?  We can see that 1 and 3 are contained both in
event A and event B. This is also called the joint probabilities or the intersection, which is the same as A and B and is
typically denoted P(A ∩ B).

So, the symbol ∩ stands for “and”. The union-symbol (∪) means “or”.

Joint probability example (A and B)

Say you are watching a horse race with 8 horses where the bookmakers set the following odds:
 Horse 1 is favorite with 0.28 chance of winning the race
 Horse 8 is the underdog with a 0.01 chance of winning and 0.25 of losing the race
Which one would you think is most likely to win?  The answer is obvious. But, now say we are asked to calculate the
probability that Horse 1 wins AND that Horse 8 loses.

We express:
 Let A be the event that Horse 1 wins: P(A) = 0.28
 Let B be the event that Horse 8 loses: P(B) = 0.25

The probability of event A and B: The probability of Horse 1 winning (event A) AND of Horse 8 losing (event B), is
denoted: P(A∩B) and calculated: P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B) = 0.28 x 0.25 = 0.0675. So, there is roughly  7% chance that
Horse 1 wins and Horse 8 loses the race.
 
Union example (A or B)
What’s the probability of either Horse 1 winning  OR  Horse 8 losing?  The calculation and the result are different from when
we say “AND”. In the “OR-cases” it is either A or B. These “OR-cases” add up the two events. But adding up the two events
means that we count the joint event twice.

Let’s take a short break from our horse race example and throw a six-sided die: Let’s state that event A is that we
throw either 3 or 4  and event B that we roll 4 or 5. That is a total of 4 events: 2 in event A and 2 in event B. So, if we just
add them up, we double-count the event of throwing 4, and we would incorrectly say that the two events have 4
outcomes, when there, in fact, only are 3 different outcomes: 3,4 and 5.

In other words: when referring to P(A), we refer to the whole of event A, including the joint area with event B. And the same
when we referring to P(B), we refer to the whole of event B, including the joint area (again!). So, the joint area is taking
place twice, and we therefore need to subtract this joint area once:

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

Back to our horse race example, our “OR-question” would be: What’s the probability that either horse 1 wins OR horse 8
loses? The calculation would be:

P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) ó 0.28 + 0.25 – 0.0675 = 0.4625

So, there is approximately a 46.25% probability that either horse 1 wins OR that horse 8 loses.
 
All objects, not only numbers
Sample space, events and probability refers just as well to any kind of object and not only to numbers as we’ve seen it so
far with rolling of a die. As such the Venn diagram could take out as this:
 
Say that in a HR department a survey is designed in order to explore whether the proportion of staffs in the administration
department is greater than the one for staffs working in the rest of the company. The sample space and the events could
take out as follows: 

Conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem

This section introduces two prerequisite concepts for understanding data assimilation theory: conditional probability and
Bayes’ theorem.

Conditional probability

Most real-world events involve uncertainty because the occurrence of a specific outcome isn’t guaranteed. You can sense
that in situations in which these are possible outcomes:
 your flight departs on time
 you keep your New Year’s resolution
 your car needs repairs in the next 6 months
there is a chance that the opposite outcome might occur. Describing such situations accurately requires making probabilistic
statements.

In mathematical notation, the probability of an event, A, is denoted by P(A). If the event A means that your flight departs on
time, you can write:
P(A)=likely
since most flights do actually depart on time.

Events usually occur in conjunction with other events, so it is useful to assign conditional probabilities, or the probability that
an outcome occurs if another event also occurs.

If the event B is that a blizzard approaches the airport an hour before your scheduled departure you can write a conditional
probability as P(A|B), or the probability that A occurs, given that B also occurs. In this case, you can assign the probability
that your flight departs on time given that a blizzard approaches the airport an hour before your scheduled departure as:

P(A|B)=unlikely

since it is unlikely that your flight departs on time in a blizzard. These examples use informal, subjective probabilities. But the
mathematical notation can also be used to assign formal, quantitative probabilities as well.

Bayes’ theorem

Imagine you are in a house and the carbon monoxide detector has set off its alarm. Carbon monoxide is colorless and
odorless, so you evacuate the house, but you don’t know whether there are actually significant concentrations of carbon
monoxide inside or if your detector is faulty.

In the United States, 100,000 carbon monoxide exposure events occur in houses annually and the manufacturer of your
detector claims that its detectors have a 0.1% error rate. Bayes’ theorem allows you to calculate the quantitative probability
of whether or not there is a carbon monoxide exposure event in the house, given that the carbon monoxide detector has set
off its alarm.

Probability theory allows you to keep track of specific conditions and events. The names of the relevant terms, and what they
represent in this example are:

 the prior, P(A) - the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your house

 the likelihood, P(B|A) - the probability your detector sets off its alarm given that there is a carbon monoxide
exposure event in your house
 the normalization, P(B) - the probability your detector sets off its alarm
 the posterior, P(A|B) - the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your house given that your
detector sets of its alarm

If this is your first experience with probability theory, you may be unaccustomed to the terminology and level of nuance that
the theory affords. Take your time to think through each of the probabilities and conditions. Notice, for example, the
difference between P(B|A) and P(A|B).

Bayes’ theorem allows you to calculate the probability you want to know, the posterior, P(A|B). The theorem is:

or:

To compute the right-hand side of the equation you’ll need to estimate the prior, the likelihood, and the normalization.

Prior

You can estimate the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your house, P(A), by dividing the number of carbon
monoxide exposure events that occur annually in houses by the total number of houses in the United States, which is 140
million houses:

Likelihood
You can estimate the probability your detector sets off its alarm given that there is a carbon monoxide exposure event in
your house, P(B|A), since you know the error rate of the detector, 0.1%:

P(B|A)=1−0.001=0.999
Normalization
Estimating the probablity your detector sets off its alarm, P(B), requires estimating two cases: the probability of a false
alarm, P(B−), and the probability of a true alarm, P(B+).
The probability of a false alarm is the portion of the population that does not experience a carbon monoxide exposure event
times the error rate of the detector:

The probability of a true alarm is the portion of the population that experiences a carbon monoxide exposure event times the
rate that the detector will correctly set off its alarm:

Posterior
You now have all of the necessary probabilities to estimate the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your
house given that your detector sets off its alarm, P(A|B):

Thus, the posterior probability is 0.42.

Bayesian inference
One of the primary benefits of Bayes’ theorem is that it can be applied multiple times to update a probability when new
information is available. This process is best illustrated by continuing the example.

While standing outside, you call the fire department. A fire engine arrives and firefighters enter the house with a carbon
monoxide meter. This meter is more accurate than the one installed in the house. It has an error rate of 0.01%.

The meter detects dangerous levels carbon monoxide in the house. You know intuitively that it is now highly probable that
there are dangerous levels of carbon monoxide in the house. Bayes’ theorem provides a rigorous framework to support your
intuition.

You can apply Bayes’ theorem again to update your estimate of the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in the
house. This updating process is called Bayesian inference.

When applying Bayes’ theorem a second time, the process is the same but the probabilities involved are different.
Prior

In the first part of the example, you estimated the prior by dividing the number of carbon monoxide exposure events that
occur annually in houses by the total number of houses in the United States. That was the correct approach at first. But now
your prior is the posterior from the first part:
P(A)=0.42

since that is the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your house.

Likelihood
Since the firefighters’ carbon monoxide meter has a lower error rate than the detector installed in the house,  P(B|A) is also
different:
P(B|A)=1−0.0001=0.9999

Normalization
The probablity that the meter detects carbon monoxide is still comprised of two parts, the probability of a false
detection, P(B−), and the probability of a true detection, P(B+). But since the error rate of the firefighters’ meter is lower
and your detector has also set off its alarm, the normalization is different.
The probability of a false detection is the probability that there isn’t a carbon monoxide exposure event in the house times
the error rate of the meter:
P(B−)=(1−0.42)×0.0001=5.8×10−5

The probability of a true detection is the probability that there is a carbon monoxide exposure event in the house times the
rate that the meter will correctly detect it:
Posterior
You have all of the necessary probabilities to estimate the probability of a carbon monoxide exposure event in your house
given that both your detector set off its alarm and the firefighters’ meter also detected carbon monoxide, P(A|B):

Thus, the second posterior probability is 0.9999. This makes sense intuitively: it is extremely likely that there is a carbon
monoxide exposure event in the house if both your alarm and the firefighters’ meter detect carbon monoxide.
It also demonstrates the ability of Bayes’ theorem to update the probability of an event when new information becomes
available.

Probability and Counting Techniques

If you recall that the classical probability of an event E ⊆ S is given by

where n(E) and n(S) denote the number of elements of E and S respectively. Thus, finding P(E) requires counting the
elements of the sample space S. Sometimes the sample space is so large that shortcuts are needed to count all the
possibilities.

All the examples discussed thus far have been experiments consisting of one action such as tossing three coins or rolling two
dice. We now want to consider experiments that consist of doing two or more actions in succession. For example, consider
the experiment of drawing two balls in succession and with replacement from a box containing one red ball (R), one white
ball (W), and one green ball (G). The outcomes of this experiment, i.e. the elements of the sample space can be found in
two different ways by using
Organized Table or an Orderly List
An organized table of our experiment looks like

Thus, there are nine equally likely outcomes so that

Tree Diagrams

An alternative way to generate the sample space is to use a tree diagram as shown in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1

Example 1.1
Show the sample space for tossing one penny and rolling one die.

(H = heads, T = tails)
Solution.
According to Figure 1.2, the sample space is

{H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.
 Figure 1.2

Fundamental Principle of Counting

If there are many stages to an experiment and several possibilities at each stage, the tree diagram associated with the
experiment would become too large to be manageable. For such problems the counting of the outcomes is simplified by
means of algebraic formulas. The commonly used formula is the multiplication rule of counting which states: ” If a choice
consists of k steps, of which the first can be made in n1 ways, for each of these the second can be made in n2 ways,... and
for each of these the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in ways.”

Example 1.2
How many license-plates with 3 letters followed by 3 digits exist?
Solution.
A 6-step process: (1) Choose the first letter, (2) choose the second letter, (3) choose the third letter, (4) choose the first
digit, (5) choose the second digit, and (6) choose the third digit. Every step can be done in a number of ways that does not
depend on previous choices, and each license plate can be specified in this manner. So there are 26 x 26 x 26 x 10 x 10 x 10
= 17, 576, 000 ways.
Example 1.3
How many numbers in the range 1000 - 9999 have no repeated digits?
Solution.
A 4-step process:
(1) Choose first digit, (2) choose second digit, (3) choose third digit, (4) choose fourth digit. Every step can be done in a
number of ways that does not depend on previous choices, and each number can be specified in this manner. So, there are 9
x 9 x 8 x 7 = 4, 536 ways.

Example 1.4
How many license-plates with 3 letters followed by 3 digits exist if exactly one of the digits is 1?

Solution.
In this case, we must pick a place for the 1 digit, and then the remaining digit places must be populated from the digits {0,
2, · · · 9}. A 6-step process: (1) Choose the first letter, (2) choose the second letter, (3) choose the third

letter, (4) choose which of three positions the 1 goes, (5) choose the first of the other digits, and (6) choose the second of
the other digits. Every step can be done in a number of ways that does not depend on previous choices, and each license
plate can be specified in this manner. So there are 26 x 26 x 26 x 3 x 9 x 9 = 4, 270, 968 ways.

Practice Problems
Problem 1.1
If each of the 10 digits is chosen at random, how many ways can you choose the following numbers?

(a) A two-digit code number, repeated digits permitted.

(b) A three-digit identification card number, for which the first digit cannot be a 0.
(c) A four-digit bicycle lock number, where no digit can be used twice.
(d) A five-digit zip code number, with the first digit not zero.

Problem 1.2
(a) If eight horses are entered in a race and three finishing places are considered, how many finishing orders can they finish?
(b) If the top three horses are Lucky one, Lucky Two, and Lucky Three, in how many possible orders can they finish?

Problem 1.3
You are taking 3 shirts(red, blue, yellow) and 2 pairs of pants (tan, gray) on a trip. How many different choices of outfits do
you have?

Problem 1.4
The state of Maryland has automobile license plates consisting of 3 letters followed by three digits. How many possible
license plates are there?

Problem 1.5
A club has 10 members. In how many ways can the club choose a president and vice-president if everyone is eligible?
Problem 1.6
A lottery allows you to select a two-digit number. Each digit may be either 1,2 or 3. Use a tree diagram to show the sample
space and tell how many different numbers can be selected.

Problem 1.7
In a medical study, patients are classified according to whether they have blood type A, B, AB, or O, and also according to
whether their blood pressure is low, normal, or high. Use a tree diagram to represent the various outcomes that can occur.

Problem 1.8
If a travel agency offers special weekend trips to 12 different cities, by air, rail, or bus, in how many different ways can such
a trip be arranged?

Problem 1.9
If twenty paintings are entered in art show, in how many different ways can the judges award a first prize and a second
prize?

Problem 1.10
In how many ways can the 52 members of a labor union choose a president, a vice-president, a secretary, and a treasurer?

Finding Probabilities Using the Fundamental Principle of Counting The Fundamental Principle of Counting can be used to
compute probabilities as shown in the following example.

Example 1.5
A quizz has 5 multiple-choice questions. Each question has 4 answer choices, of which 1 is correct answer and the other 3
are incorrect. Suppose that you guess all the answers.

(a) How many ways are there to answer the 5 questions?

(b) What is the probability of getting all 5 questions right?
(c) What is the probability of getting exactly 4 questions right and 1 wrong?
(d) What is the probability of doing well (getting at leat 4 right)?

Solution.
(a) We can look at this question as a decision consisting of five steps. There
are 4 ways to do each step so that by the Fundamental Principle of Counting
there are
(4)(4)(4)(4)(4) = 1024 ways
(b) There is only one way to answer each question correctly. Using the Fundamental Principle of Counting there is (1)(1)(1)
(1)(1) = 1 way to answer all 5 questions correctly out of 1024 possibilities. Hence,

(c) The following table lists all possible responses that involve at least 4 right answers, R stands for right and W stands for a
wrong answer

So there are 15 ways out of the 1024 possible ways that result in 4 right answers and 1 wrong answer so that

(d) ”At least 4” means you can get either 4 right and 1 wrong or all 5 right.
Thus,

Probability Trees
Probability trees can be used to compute the
probabilities of combined outcomes in a
sequence of experiments. Example 1.6
Construct the probability tree of the
experiment of flipping a fair coin twice.
Solution. The probability tree is shown in
 Figure 1.6

The probabilities shown in Figure 1.3 are obtained by following the paths leading to each of the four outcomes and
multiplying the probabilities along the paths. This procedure is an instance of the following general property

Multiplication Rule for Probabilities for Tree Diagrams

For all multistage experiments, the probability of the outcome along any path of a tree diagram is equal to the product of all
the probabilities along the path.

Example 1.7
Suppose that out of 500 computer chips there are 9
defectives. Construct the probability tree of the
experiment of sampling two of them without
replacement.

Solution.
The probability tree is shown in Figure 1.4

Practice Problems 1.4

Problem 1.16
A jar contains three red gumballs and two green gumballs. An experiment consists of drawing gumballs one at a time
from the jar, without replacement, until a red one is obtained. Find the probability of the following events.
A: Only one draw is needed.
B: Exactly two draws are needed.
C: Exactly three draws are needed.

Problem 1.17
Consider a jar with three black marbles and one red marble. For the experiment of drawing two marbles with
replacement, what is the probability of drawing a black marble and then a red marble in that order?

Problem 1.18
A jar contains three marbles, two black and one red. Two marbles are drawn with replacement. What is the
probability that both marbles are black? Assume that the marbles are equally likely to be drawn.

Problem 1.19
A jar contains four marbles-one red, one green, one yellow, and one white. If two marbles are drawn without
replacement from the jar, what is the probability of getting a red marble and a white marble?

Problem 1.20
A jar contains 3 white balls and 2 red balls. A ball is drawn at random from the box and not replaced. Then a second
ball is drawn from the box. Draw a tree diagram for this experiment and find the probability that the two balls are of
different colors.

Problem 1.21
Suppose that a ball is drawn from the box in the previous problem, its color recorded, and then it is put back in the
box. Draw a tree diagram for this experiment and find the probability that the two balls are of different colors.

Problem 1.22
Suppose there are 19 balls in an urn. They are identical except in color. 16 of the balls are black and 3 are purple.
You are instructed to draw out one ball, note its color, and set it aside. Then you are to draw out another ball and
note its color. What is the probability of drawing out a black on the first draw and a purple on the second?

Binary Experiments
Binary experiments are experiments with exactly two outcomes such as coin tossing. Our first question is to find the total
number of outcomes when a coin is tossed n times which is equivalent to saying that n coins are tossed. So, what we have
here is a decision consisting of n steps each step has two outcomes (head/tail) so by the Fundamental Principle of Counting
there are

Next, let’s list the outcomes. For simplicity, assume n = 3. In this case, the tree diagram of Figure 1.5 lists all the outcomes
of tossing one, two, and three coins.
 Figure 1.5

From Figure 1.5

we can create a tree diagram that counts the coin outcomes with a given number of heads as shown in Figure 1.6.

Figure 1.6

The pattern of Figure 1.6 holds for any number of coins and thus leads to the following diagram known as Pascal’s triangle.

Example 1.8
Six fair coins are tossed. (a) Find the probability of getting exactly 3 heads. (b) Find the probability of getting at least four
heads.

Solution.
(a) The 6-coins row of Pascal’s triangle may be interpreted as follows 1(6H) 6(5H) 15(4H) 20(3H) 15(2H) 6(1H) 1(0H) Thus,
there are 20 ways of getting exactly three heads, and the probability of 3 heads is

(b) The first numbers −1, 6, and 15− represent the number of outcomes for which there are at least 4 heads. Thus, the
probability of getting at least four heads is

Practice Problems

Problem 1.23
The row of Pascal’s triangle that starts 1,4,... would be useful in finding probabilities for an experiment of tossing four coins.
(a) Interpret the meaning of each number.
(b) Find the probability of exactly one head and three tails.
(c) Find the probability of at least one tail turning up.
(d) Should you bet in favor of getting exactly two heads or should you bet against it?

Problem 1.24
Four coins are tossed.
a. Draw a tree diagram to represent the arrangements of heads (H) and tails (T).
b. How many outcomes involve all heads? three heads, one tail? two heads, two tails? one head, three tails? no heads?
c. How do these results relate to Pascal’s triangle?

Problem 1.25
A true-false problem has 6 questions.

(a) How many ways are there to answer the 6-question test?
(b) What is the probability of getting at least 5 right by guessing the answers at random?

Problem 1.26
(a) Write the 7th row of Pascal’s triangle.
(b) What is the probability of getting at least four heads when tossing seven coins?

Problem 1.27
Assume the probability is 1 2 that a child born is a boy. What is the probability that if a family is going to have
four children, they will all be boys?

Supplemental Video:
Inductive Reasoning
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAjkQ1YqLEE
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEId0GonOZM
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wblW_M_HVQ8

Probability of Sample Space and Events

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTaniE_RZjA
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62EGg9Sc9Ik
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oI8-iQqPAI

Fundamentals and Counting Techniques

 https://youtu.be/Mba29Xp9G5E
 https://youtu.be/J1OVlrCdk6s
 https://youtu.be/QnZ70muL4LI

Resources:
 https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/inductive-reasoning
 https://brilliant.org/wiki/bayes-theorem/
 https://www.wikilectures.eu/w/Statistical_Induction_Principle
 https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_introductory-statistics/s06-descriptive-statistics.html
 https://docs.dart.ucar.edu/en/latest/theory/conditional-probability-bayes-theorem.html
 https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2017/03/conditional-probability-bayes-theorem/
 https://eli.thegreenplace.net/2018/conditional-probability-and-bayes-theorem/
 https://faculty.atu.edu/mfinan/2043/section34.pdf
 https://dataz4s.com/statistics/sample-space-events-probabilities/