How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests?: and Why We Desperately Need More of Them

10/8/21, 6:24 AM How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests?
- by Emily Oster - ParentData
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How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests?

And why we desperately need more of them
Emily Oster
Oct 7 15 4
Join me tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. ET for an AMA! I’ll try to focus on questions about kids and vaccines,
and rapid testing. You’ll get an email when it starts up. Think of questions!
This AMA will be open to all, although future monthly ones will be subscriber only.
There have been many policy failures in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the
U.S., but I think the way we have managed testing may be the most extreme. This begins with
the lack of testing early on (Scott Gottlieb’s new book has an excellent discussion of that) and
has continued to the present. Both Michael Mina and David Leonhardt wrote last week in the
New York Times about the policy failure to provide good access to rapid antigen tests.
Rapid tests, at the present moment, are expensive and hard to find in the U.S. This may be
improving with the approval of a new rapid test option, and the White House saying they’ll
spend a billion dollars to make tests more available. Both are pieces of great news (more at the
bottom, also, about how to get tests right now). Of course, the fact that we are only now
developing a plan to have more tests is a policy failure.
It’s not the only failure. Judging from the emails and questions I get, we have also failed to
convey to people the value of rapid tests. If we don’t do this communication well, having more
tests is of little value.
A specific question: let’s say we do have tests in our home. How, precisely, should we be using
them?
https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/how-should-i-use-rapid-covid-tests 1/10
10/8/21, 6:24 AM How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests? - by Emily Oster - ParentData
I’m going to dive into this below, with help from Dr. Michael Mina and Shawna Marino.1 I
want to focus on the basics. First, an overall framework for how to think about the value of
various tests (and how they work). Then, answers to some basic FAQs. A note that I’m focusing
today on using these in your home or with your family rather than at school; here’s another
resource focused on school-based use.
Big picture: What are the kinds of COVID-19 tests, and

why might the results be different?
There are, broadly, two types of tests that can tell you if you have COVID-19. There are what
are called molecular tests, which you probably know as “PCR” tests. These look for evidence of
the RNA of the virus in your system. These tests are very sensitive, in the sense that they
detect even very small amounts of viral RNA; for example, they’ll often return a positive result
even after your infectious period, since residual (non-infectious) viral fragments remain.
While most schools require a PCR test result to return to school, PCR tests cannot typically be
run at home and require a lab. Rapid at-home molecular tests, while promising, are not widely
available for home use yet, so I will refrain from discussing them here.
The second type of test is an antigen test, what we are colloquially calling a “rapid” test. These
work by looking for the virus proteins — basically, by looking for evidence of active virus.
These tests are most accurate during the highly infectious period; with Delta, that’s two to five
days after exposure.
The antigen tests can be run at home, and they produce results in about 15 minutes. The
output varies by test but typically looks like a pregnancy test: one line negative, two lines
positive. (I’ve put an image below of a negative one, from a BinaxNOW taken on one of my
children a month or two ago.)
These two tests may produce different results, and it’s important to understand why.
Obviously one reason is that there are false positives and negatives on any test, due to user
error or other issues. But let’s put that aside. Even if they are used exactly right, you may get a
negative rapid test and a positive PCR test. In fact, this is expected to happen. Why?
Broadly, this occurs because the PCR test is more sensitive to lower viral loads than the rapid
test. For example, if you’ve recovered from COVID, the PCR will remain positive for a while —
for weeks or, in rare cases, months — while antigen tests are negative. Importantly in that
case, though, you are not contagious anymore. The antigen test in that case is “right” in the sense
that you shouldn’t worry about spreading to other people.
More generally, a positive PCR with a negative rapid test suggests a low viral load, one that is
much less likely to imply contagiousness. This is why people sometimes talk about antigen
tests as “contagiousness” tests.
Is one of these tests better? I’d argue no; that they are useful for different purposes. The rapid
tests are fast, easy to run, cheap, and can be used at home. They are excellent at picking up on
infectious people. A PCR test is more definitive as a test of whether a particular individual has
been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But since most PCR tests
are done in a lab, they take, typically, two to four days to get a result and (as noted) they can be
positive even if you’ve stopped being contagious weeks earlier.
In a sense, which test is “better” is all about the use case. Which I turn to below.
Big picture: What is the general use case for rapid

tests?
Rapid tests do a very good job of picking up COVID when people are highly infectious,
whether they are symptomatic, pre-symptomatic, or asymptomatic but with an infectious viral
load. If you know when you were exposed, this infectious period is usually two to five days
after exposure. They are also easy and fast, and you can use them in your home or on the go,
even daily if needed.
This means the use case for rapid tests is:
Immediate testing when people have symptoms
Testing after a possible exposure
Asymptomatic screening to keep schools and businesses safe (I won’t talk much about
this here since we’re focusing on your family use, but see more on the policy side here)
The first of these is fairly obvious. The best reason to have rapid tests around your house is to
test family members if they have possible symptoms. The rapid tests are highly accurate
during an individual’s most infectious state, which is typically when your body starts showing
symptoms, so in this case you’re likely to find out if it is COVID.
The second bullet here is a little more complicated. Basically, rapid tests can be very helpful in
testing if you think someone might have COVID and may not yet be showing symptoms. One
example of this is if there is a known exposure. This is the idea behind school “test-to-stay”
programs, which allow students to stay at school after an in-school exposure but require them
to take a rapid test every day for a week. In this protocol, the rapid test would effectively pick
up a case in its presymptomatic phase. A large randomized trial in the U.K. has shown that
such a protocol is preferable to quarantine in terms of keeping kids in school and does not
result in more COVID-19 transmission.
This use case also applies to things like work travel or getting together with a lot of people
who you do not normally see. In these situations, exposure is more likely. It’s not necessarily
that you know you’ll be exposed, but if you interact with 300 people at a work conference, or
you bring 20 people together at an extended family dinner, it’s just more likely that an
exposure could happen. Testing before you enter these situations or after you’ve participated
and before you spend time with unvaccinated children or more vulnerable older adults is a
layer of protection: as Shawna Marino put it to me, “It’s like sunscreen.”
There are also cases where you just want to be more careful, like going to see an immune-
compromised relative, or someone in a nursing home. Rapid testing in that situation — even if
you do not think you’ve been exposed — may well make sense.
Whether you want to use a rapid test in these situations is going to depend a bit on your risk
tolerance and home situation. If you’re coming back from a work trip to a house of fully
vaccinated people, post-travel testing will make less sense than if you have unvaccinated kids.
Two other notes. First: Most of the over-the-counter approved rapid tests come in boxes of
two. This is technically because the FDA wants us to use two tests in a given period of time
(usually 36 hours) to rule out any case where we didn’t have a high enough viral load to
indicate “positive” the first time. Sometimes it takes longer for COVID-19 to register in your
body, so if you take a test two days after potential exposure and it’s negative, it’s recommended
that you take a second test another 24 to 36 hours afterward to be certain that you are truly
negative.
Second: If you do not use these all the time, doing so for the first time can be intimidating. It
shouldn’t be! The tests are easy to use and your kids will get used to it fast. If you want a little
help, this video guide might work!
That’s a broad framework — maybe it’s enough to answer your questions! — but let’s do a few
specific questions that are on many of our minds.
FAQs, rapid test edition:

My kid woke up with a runny nose and a slight cough. Should I test him?
Yes. This is the best reason to have the tests around the house. If it is positive, follow up with a
PCR.
If it is negative, I will leave to you the question of whether the school rules permit the child to
go to school with a garden-variety cold. I will provide you this tidbit from Shawna, though:
I learned this past week with my own two kids who got colds that masking and runny noses
don’t mix. My 15-month-old stayed home from daycare for three days with a runny nose, no
fever, and negative rapid antigen tests, because I didn’t want her to give her cold to smaller
babies. My 5-year-old went to school all week with no cold symptoms, but because my
daughter was home, I tested him daily using rapid tests just to be sure. By Friday, he had a
bad runny nose too but no other symptoms. He technically was allowed to go to school, but
he couldn’t blow his nose without removing his mask, and any sneeze resulted in a
disgusting booger-filled mask. Now we know it may be best (or necessary) to keep kids
home if they have a runny nose (which is so, so hard for working parents…) because masking
and runny noses don’t mix!
I want to see my (vaccinated/unvaccinated) family at an indoor gathering; we do not plan to wear

masks. There are some unvaccinated kids (or unvaccinated adults). What should we do?
Looking at the framework above, this falls into the “possible exposure” reason to test. Even if
no one thinks they’ve been exposed, it’s hard to know, and getting a bunch of people together
increases the risk of one unknown exposure.
So:
Rapid-test everyone before getting together.
If multiple days, consider testing again (possibly multiple times, depending on test
availability and risk tolerance) during the gathering.
The dependency in the second bullet is important here. In a world of inexpensive and widely
available rapid tests, I’d favor testing a bunch of times during a multi-day visit. Given the
actual availability and cost situation, this isn’t likely to be very feasible. Because of that, the
first bullet is the most crucial. Test before getting together. But remember that if people
traveled to get there, it’s important to test a few days after arrival too.
Broad scenario: I’m going on a work trip and I will return to unvaccinated kids. Should I test when I
return, and when?
Again, this falls in the “possible exposure” group. If you have symptoms, of course you test.
Without symptoms, testing would be intended to pick up a possible exposure. The “ideal”
would be to test daily until five to seven days post-travel. This isn’t likely to be feasible for
most people, but some testing a couple days after traveling may be. Also, some employers are
allowing employees to expense rapid test costs, so that is worth asking about.
Some people will read this and say some version of: Kids are low-risk, all the adults are vaccinated,
what’s the big deal here? For me, the answer is really about the kids and school, both their own
need to quarantine and the risk that they spread to other kids and out from there. I do not
want to be the index case for my children’s classroom to close, or for one of their friends to
give COVID to an immune-compromised parent.
Once my kids are vaccinated, I will see things differently (Halloween! I’m holding out hope).
Can I use them on kids under 2?
My kids are 10 and 6. At this point, they test like pros, can swab themselves, and accept it as a
part of life. So I’m relying on Shawna, below, as she has a bit more experience.
Yes — however, the instructions for use vary, and the official guides may discourage it. This
is because they assume parents don’t know how far to stick the swab and don’t want to
damage the nasal passage. I use them on my daughter and have since she was about 12
months old. Virus is virus, and they will work if you can get a good sample. My trick: She
sits in a comfy chair and I take out the swab and pretend to tickle her nose — almost a
combination between the airplane eating trick and a tickling game. She laughs and it’s over
before she knows it. As someone who has used the NoseFrida on both my kids, taking a
nasal sample is a piece of cake compared to sucking out boogers.
For kids older than 3, we strongly recommend letting them take the nasal sample
themselves. It’s glorified nose picking. Make them count to five on each side. “Big circles.
Can you tickle yourself? How much booger can you capture in there? I don’t see any
boogers — get it all on there!” We made it goofy with my son early on and also got him
interested in the testing steps after. He knows to look for one line, and now that we test at
home frequently, he has been a champ with his mandatory weekly school testing too. I am a
firm believer that if the parents are calm and easygoing about testing, the child will not be
anxious or worried. Make it fun, show them that you do it too (just like masking), and their
resilience will easily kick in!
I got a positive on the rapid test for my kid. WHAT DO I DO?
Don’t panic! First, now that there are a few different brands of over-the-counter rapid tests,
it’s worth using another brand right away as a follow-up. These rapid tests do sometimes pull
up false positives; it’s not that common, but it can happen (my kid had one last summer). The
fastest way to double-check is to use a second rapid test. If that’s positive, follow up with a
PCR at your doctor, a pharmacy, or a state testing site. If the second rapid is negative, you
could also follow up with a PCR, if you want to be totally certain.
If the PCR is positive, your kid has COVID. Isolate them and follow instructions about
quarantine for any other close contacts.
If the follow-up PCR is negative, then it was a false positive. Until next time…
Where can I get these, and how can we get more

around?
Throughout the entire pandemic, many folks have asked: Why isn’t all COVID testing free? As
the op-eds at the top point out, COVID testing is a public good, and we should be trying to
flood the system with rapid tests so that anyone can access them at any time for free. This is
what the U.K., Germany, and other countries have done. The Biden Administration
announcement yesterday was a step forward, but there should be much more investment. If
you want to advocate for free rapid testing, the RapidTests.org group has a great webpage that
allows you to customize a form letter and send it to your members of Congress:
https://www.rapidtests.org/take-action. Dr. Mina’s team, along with many other public health
experts, are actively working with the Biden administration to change policy, but
demonstrating grassroots support is always helpful. Notably, in response to increased demand,
the FDA has just authorized another at-home test, price to be determined.
In the meantime, if you want to get the tests…
Walmart has the cheapest options, though they are not always in stock.
CVS and Walgreens also offer them, though they are not always in stock (sensing a
pattern?).
Call your local public health department and ask if they have any at-home rapid tests
for residents. Some states have bulk supply and distribute them at local libraries or
community centers.
So much of my writing over the past year has been about frameworks, risk tolerance, and,
frankly, learning to live with uncertainty and take control where we can find it. Rapid tests are
basically a way to take back a little control. A way to feel better about doing more, about
having playdates and birthday parties and just getting out. The problem, obviously, is that we
need them to be cheaper. Or free! And available everywhere so people can access them.
Increased consumer demand, and more production, will help. But I also hope the government
steps up. I’d like to see every household in America get a shipment of rapid tests in time for
Thanksgiving - in fact, this was the plan Dr. Mina called for a year ago. It doesn’t seem like
too much to ask.
Did You Miss It?

RSV: What Is It and Should I Worry?
Raising a Rare Girl
1 Content for this piece was provided by Dr. Michael Mina, MD, Ph.D., an assistant professor of
epidemiology and immunology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in partnership
with Shawna Marino, MPP, who has been working with Dr. Mina on public health policy and
communications for the past year. Shawna is a mom to two children under five and also leads
strategic communications for Detect, a new health technology company that’s developing a rapid
molecular test. Dr. Mina has been one of the world’s leading advocates of rapid testing, and his work
has informed policies around the globe, including national rapid testing plans in the U.K. and
Europe. He and his team have been working closely with the Biden administration on a national
rapid testing program for the U.S., detailed in the New York Times last week.
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myst_05 Oct 7
“I do not want to be the index case for my children’s classroom to close, or for one of their friends
to give COVID to an immune-compromised parent.”
Do you expect your school to quickly abandon quarantine protocols if Pfizer is approved this month
for 5-11 year olds? Locally in Seattle they apply even in high schools where everyone is eligible for a
shot.
Additionally, would you recommend counting kids with natural immunity as fully vaccinated? Latest
estimates show that 1/3 of Americans have already been infected and Israeli data is showing that
natural antibodies afford greater protection against serious disease than the vaccine.
Reply
myst_05 Oct 7
I feel like there’s a logical error in regards to the advice to get a PCR test after a positive (or mixed)
antigen test. Since antigen tests are more accurate in giving us information that we actually care
about (“am I infectious?”), shouldn’t someone continue using them until they’re consistently
negative rather than getting a PCR test? If you’re vaccinated and have a healthy immune system,
Covid is often asymptomatic and short in duration, so a positive PCR test could raise unnecessary
concern in someone who is not in fact infectious.
Finally, even if you do get a positive PCR test, a smart quarantine strategy would still involve waiting
for symptoms to go away and then testing negative on the antigen test for two days in a row. So
you might as well skip the PCR visit.
Reply
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10/8/21, 6:24 AM How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests?

- by Emily Oster - ParentData

How Should I Use Rapid COVID Tests?

Big picture: What are the kinds of COVID-19 tests, and

Big picture: What is the general use case for rapid

This means the use case for rapid tests is:

Immediate testing when people have symptoms

Testing after a possible exposure

FAQs, rapid test edition:

I want to see my (vaccinated/unvaccinated) family at an indoor gathering; we do not plan to wear

Rapid-test everyone before getting together.

Can I use them on kids under 2?

I got a positive on the rapid test for my kid. WHAT DO I DO?

Where can I get these, and how can we get more

In the meantime, if you want to get the tests…

Did You Miss It?

Raising a Rare Girl

2 replies by Emily Oster and others

Ready for more?

Type your email… Subscribe

ParentData is on Substack – the place for independent writing

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