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Perturbation and Projection
Methods for Solving DSGE Models
Lawrence J. Christiano
Discussion of projections taken from Christiano‐Fisher, ‘Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally
Binding Constraints’, 2000, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Discussion of perturbations taken from Judd’s textbook.
A
Perturbation and Projection
- -
Methods for Solving DSGE Models
Lawrence J. Christiano
Discussion of projections taken from Christiano‐Fisher, ‘Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally
Binding Constraints’, 2000, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Discussion of perturbations taken from Judd’s textbook.
Outline
• A Toy Example to Illustrate the basic ideas.
-
– Functional form characterization of model
solution.
– Use of Projections and Perturbations.
model worked
RBC hours
• Neoclassical model. with constant
.
←
-
– Projection methods
– Perturbation methodsE .
]
• Make sense of the proposition, ‘to a first order
approximation, can replace equilibrium conditions with
linear expansion about nonstochastic steady state and
solve the resulting system using certainty equivalence’
of trivial ( i slides wrote )
9
see
Sort
At another Level
, very powerful
important .
Simple Example
• Suppose that x is some exogenous variable
and that the following equation implicitly l
defines y:
h x, y 0, for all x ∈ X
=
#
• Let the solution be defined by the ‘policy rule’,
g:
④y gx
situation
‘Error function’
• satisfying ,I , ,
.
- -
R x; g ≡ h x, g x 0 Ya yes ,
-
-
- -
Y ,
,
T t
f
.
• for all x ∈ X
-
P .
I
Kwong
d f Cd ,x7
-
=
Payoff if
-
decision
idf is d
when 0C
Occurs .
Suppose I must be
immune
① choose d
Valve
② of x
occurs
③ fcd ,
x ) Kinnan .
if chose d
you
optimal gulen x= '
is whoo to choose d
under these circumstances?
Answer
M£EfCd,o÷
⇐
' I
✓
•
- K IO
Computing Efcd ,
.sc )
sometimes A PAIN .
Economist t
engineers .
x x
Use eauiveah experts
certainty .
At Approx in
AS AN Approximation .
-
Afioors
.
Certainty eaviualewce :
with .
max fcd ,
Ex)
d
-
-
Perturbation method
← certainty equivalence
is correct if VARIANCE
of sis small
se
enough .
Problem : SMALL
,
SMALL chance that
Ain 't Nothin get
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we seen is
growing
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(illustration
economic
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because
ONLY only simply
I
The Need to Approximate
-
• Finding the policy rule, g, is a big problem
outside special cases
– ‘Infinite number of unknowns (i.e., one value of g
for each possible x) in an infinite number of
equations (i.e., one equation for each possible x).’
• Two approaches:
functioned
"
– projection and perturbation
"
"
)
"
unknown
UNKNOWNS ? Glx wya 's
' EX
functions
equations : h( a ,gcxD=oV-
Projection
ĝ x;
• Find a parametric function, , where is a
vector of parameters chosen so that it imitates
R x; g 0
the property of the exact solution, i.e.,
8
.
8
for all x ∈ X , as well as possible. know kno -
to make Io . A
-
where do I
?
R̂ x; h x, ĝ x; fo
guess
prob
get 8
's
Try
p
economy
.
-
good urns sin
x
• is close to zero for .
x∈X
00 Ie
IN +
b-
Y x .
• The method is defined by how ‘close to zero’ is
ĝ x;
defined and by the parametric function, , "
glad "
1-Qaoide.r.am
that is used. to
APP 73991 .
Fg
v.
"
g .
Like
behaves
gtsh.IE?.n
Projection, continued 2 finite:X
>
(
en
Hod
'
• Spectral and finite element approximations ne
– Spectral functions: functions, , in which
ĝ x;
ĝ x; x∈X
each parameter in influences for all
"
example: ""
basis O 1 a.
+ I ?
a
n
parameters
if
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function :
each
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Yi inferences
Parameter , ,
globally .
← spectra
I
-
change 83
rn
1-
A spectral
inconvenient
Need
May
a
huge n
Projection, continued
ĝ x;
÷
–-
Finite element approximations: functions, ,
ĝ x;
in which each parameter in influences
over only a subinterval of x ∈ X
ĝ x; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
← b
4 N
8,
only
• 85
Mfume
A
piecewise 2 has
vine : on
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on g
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it .
Projection, continued Collocation
→
• ‘Close to zero’: two methods weighted
→
"
residual
Kin
x : x 1 , x 2 , . . . , x n ∈ X baler
• Collocation, for n values of
choose n elements of so that
-
1 n
¥¥€a÷•¥÷*÷÷io÷
R̂ x i ; h xi, ĝ xi; 0, i 1, . . . , n
RAM
– how you choose the grid of x’s matters… y
⇐
: ::*
'
• Weighted Residual, for m>n values of
x : x 1 , x 2 , . . . , x m ∈ X choose the n i ’s
xxxxxxxx
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∑ jh xj, ĝ xj;
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R ( x ; g) =o
what is but I
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what does
know g =
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earlier example
model where h
of econ ,
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to determine g exactly .
close
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generally id
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have to Approximate ,
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Example of Importance of Grid Points
• Here is an example, taken from a related problem, the problem grid
=3
points
of interpolation.
-
– You get to evaluate a function on a set of grid points that you
select, and you must guess the shape of the function
between the grid points. Bunge
CARL
4th century
(
• Consider the function,
fk 1 #
, k ∈ −5, 5
1 k2 Runge
function
• Next slide shows what happens when you select 11 equally‐
spaced grid points and interpolate by fitting a 10th order
polynomial.
– As you increase the number of grid points on a fixed interval
grid, oscillations in tails grow more and more violent.
N¥mAL
• Chebyshev approximation theorem: distribute more points in
of
Magic
the tails (by selecting zeros of Chebyshev
convergence in sup norm.
polynomial) and get
⇐ gsis k
.
Interpolation : situation
where I
Kwong g .
g
.
Try to Approximate it
function that is
by a
evaluate
fast to .
teen
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Approximating
o
Not
How You Select the Grid Points Matters !
function
protonation .
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Figure from Christiano‐Fisher, JEDC, 1990
Example of Importance of Grid Points
• Here is an example, taken from a related problem, the problem
of interpolation.
– You get to evaluate a function on a set of grid points that you
select, and you must guess the shape of the function
between the grid points.
• Consider the function,
fk 1 , k ∈ −5, 5
2
1 k
• Next slide shows what happens when you select 11 equally‐
spaced grid points and interpolate by fitting a 10th order
polynomial.
– As you increase the number of grid points on a fixed interval
grid, oscillations in tails grow more and more violent.
• Chebyshev approximation theorem: distribute more points in
the tails (by selecting zeros of Chebyshev polynomial) and get
convergence in sup norm.
ith basis function for T2 Chebyshev polynomial
I.
u
i -
-
0,32
, . .
→
.
'
Zeros:
O -
.
Chebyshev polynomials
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using
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=
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Symbolic algebra .
Economics :
mostly integration
tractable
Not
Analytically .
econometrics
BAYESIAN
'
constant have to
functions that
integrate
t
Aske
tractable
no
Most
Analytically
. Approximate
{ fax >
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dux
beast
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Suppose 5- WAS A
Polynomial .
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a
b
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nth order
A
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of f S fax > dtnsfnlxdn
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Chebyshev is one
Method .
There Are
MANY .
Natural n irritate
Riemann definition
itntegral.EE#
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Projection, continued
-
R(
" '
i
,
chgoseose • ‘Close to zero’: two methods
)
• Collocation, for n values of
x : x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ∈ X
ai O1
choose n elements of so that
n
R̂ x i ; h xi, ĝ xi; 0, i 1, . . . , n
- =
– how you choose the grid of x’s matters…
• Weighted Residual, for m>n values of
Gealerkiwxxxxxxxx
x : x 1 , x 2 , . . . , x m ∈ X choose the n i ’s
=
①
m
f
evaluate ∑ wij h xj, ĝ xj; 0, i 1, . . . , n
the
j 1 xex, not just
R^Cxi£ ) old at 04
- .
-
ok "
grid points
: ,
f-
A *
.
←
Perturbation
F• Projection uses the ‘global’ behavior of the functional
WITH
equation to approximate solution.
– Problem: requires finding zeros of non‐linear equations.
' Iterative methods for doing this are a pain.
]%%⑧
– Advantage: can easily adapt to situations the policy rule is not
continuous or simply non‐differentiable (e.g., occasionally
binding zero lower bound on interest rate).
%ri
• Perturbation method uses Taylor series expansion
(computed using implicit function theorem) to approximate
model solution.
↳d÷÷÷i
:-( – Advantage: can implement procedure using non‐iterative
methods.
me
only .
– Possible disadvantages:
(
• Global properties of Taylor series expansion not necessarily very good.
Tx
• Does not work when there are important non‐differentiabilities (e.g.,
occasionally binding zero lower bound on interest rate).
Taylor Series Expansion Zeng
• Let be k+1
f :R→R differentiable on the open -
interval and continuous on the closed interval
-
unpaid
between a and x.
– Then,
error typo ASS
rn
"
different
inbttder
f x Pk x Rk x 't" f
is
or
– where
I
thfioispproxit →
k
%
x
rt
Taylor series expansion about x a:
1 1 2 2 1 k k
Pk x f a f a x−a 2!
f a x−a ... k!
f a x−a
- -
* -
21=2×1 ¥6
"
by ! kick 1)
'
×
× . - - -
remainder:
-
a
'
.
2
z
z!
"
1 k 1 k 1
il R k x k 1 !
f x−a , for some between x and a
4.3
'
y! 24
– Question: is the Taylor series expansion a good
"
r
,
approximation for f? f
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a
think
might fcx
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pace k so
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peg
Nope '
mm
Taylor Series Expansion
• It’s not as good as you might have thought.
• The next slide exhibits the accuracy of the
Taylor series approximation to the Runge
function.
– In a small neighborhood of the point where the
approximation is computed (i.e., 0), higher order
Taylor series approximations are increasingly
accurate.
– Outside that small neighborhood, the quality of
the approximation deteriorates with higher order
approximations.
Taylor Series Expansions about 0 of Runge Function
1.4
Increasing order of approximation leads to improved
accuracy in a neighborhood of zero and reduced accuracy
1.2 further away.
5th order Taylor series expansion
1 A
0.8
0.2
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
I "
I
x sick ) -
Tsi
-
fix ) - .
p.ec ,
Taylor Series Expansion
• Another example: the log function
– It is often used in economics.
– Surprisingly, Taylor series expansion does not provide
a great global approximation.
– This expression diverges as N→∞ for
x such that x −a a ≥1
Taylor Series Expansion of Log Function
2
About x=1
1.8
25th order approximation
-
1.6
5th order approximation
1.4 -
1.2
Taylor series approximation deteriorates
infinitely for x>2 as order of approximation log(x)
ri
1 increases.
0.8
0.6
2nd order approximation
-
0.4
0.2
10th order approximation
-
0
x
Taylor Series Expansion
• In general, cannot expect Taylor series
expansion to converge to actual function,
globally.
– There are some exceptions, e.g., Taylor’s series
f x e x , cos x , sin x
expansion of about x=0
converges to f(x) even for x far from 0.
– Problem: in general it is difficult to say for what
values of x the Taylor series expansion gives a
good approximation.
-
Taylor Versus Weierstrass
• Problems with Taylor series expansion does not represent a
problem with polynomials per se as approximating functions.
• Weierstrass approximation theorem: for every continuous function,
f(x), defined on [a,b], and for every 0, there exists a finite‐
ordered polynomial, p(x), on [a,b] such that
|f x − p x | , for all x ∈ a, b
• Weierstrass – polynomials may approximate well, even if
sometimes the Taylor series expansion is not very good.
– Interpolation with Chebyshev zeroes gives an excellent approximation.
• Ok, we’re done with the digression on the
Taylor series expansion.
• Now, back to the discussion of the
perturbation method.
– It approximates a solution using the Taylor series
expansion.
Perturbation Method
• Suppose there is a point, , where we
x∗ ∈ X
know the value taken on by the function, g,
that we wish to approximate:
g x∗ g ∗ , some x ∗
• Use the implicit function theorem to
approximate g in a neighborhood of x ∗
• Note:
R x; g 0 for all x ∈ X
→
d j
j
R x; g ≡ j
R x; g 0 for all j, all x ∈ X.
dx
Perturbation, cnt’d
• Differentiate R with respect to and evaluate
x
x∗
the result at :
R 1
x∗ d h x, g x | h1 x∗ , g∗ h2 x∗ , g∗ g′ x∗ 0
x x∗
dx
′ ∗ h1 x∗ , g∗
→g x −
h2 x∗ , g∗
• Do it again!
R 2 x∗ d 2 h x, g x | ∗ h 11 x ∗ , g ∗ 2h 12 x ∗ , g ∗ g ′ x ∗
2 x x
dx
2
h 22 x ∗ , g ∗ g ′ x ∗ h 2 x ∗ , g ∗ g ′′ x ∗ .
x∈X
– over to verify that it is everywhere close
to zero (or, at least in the region of interest).
Example: a Circle
• Function:
h x, y x2 y2 − 4 0.
• For each x except x=‐2, 2, there are two distinct y
that solve h(x,y)=0:
y g1 x ≡ 4 − x2 , y g2 x ≡ − 4 − x2 .
• The perturbation method does not require that
the function g that solves h(x,g(x))=0 be unique.
– When you specify the value of the function, g, at the
point of the expansion, you select the function whose
Taylor series expansion is delivered by the
perturbation method.
Example of Implicit Function Theorem
y
h x, y x2 y2 − 4 0.
x ∗
gx ≃ g∗ − ∗ x − x∗
g
‐2
2
x
‐2
h1 x∗ , g∗ x ∗
g′ x∗ − − ∗ h 2 had better not be zero!
h2 x∗ , g∗ g
Outline
• A Toy Example to Illustrate the basic ideas.
– Functional form characterization of model solution.
– Projections and Perturbations.
• Neoclassical model. Done!
– Projection methods
– Perturbation methods
• Stochastic Simulations and Impulse Responses
– Focus on perturbation solutions of order two.
– The need for pruning.
Neoclassical Growth Model
• Objective:
1−
ct − 1
E0 ∑ tu ct , u ct
1−
t 0
• Constraints:
ct exp k t 1 ≤ f kt, at , t 0, 1, 2, . . . .
2
at a t−1 t, t~ E t 0, E t V
E t u ′ f k t , a t − exp k t 1
− u′ f kt 1 , at t 1 − exp k t 2 fK kt 1 , at t 1 0.
k t , a t ~given numbers
• Here, t 1 ~random variable
time t choice variable, k t 1
• Parameter, , indexes a set of models, with
the model of interest corresponding to
1
Solution
• A policy rule,
kt 1 g kt, at, .
• With the property:
ct
R k t , a t , ; g ≡ E t u ′ f k t , a t − exp g k t , a t ,
ct 1
kt 1 at kt 1 at
1 1
kt 1 at 1
fK g kt, at, , at t 1 0,
• for all a t , k t , .
Projection Methods
• Let
ĝ kt, at, ;
– be a function with finite parameters (could be either
spectral or finite element, as before).
• Choose parameters, , to make
R kt, at, ; ĝ
– as close to zero as possible, over a range of values of
the state.
– use weighted residuals or Collocation.
Occasionally Binding Constraints
• Suppose we add the non‐negativity constraint on
investment:
exp g k t , a t , − 1− exp k t ≥ 0
• Express problem in Lagrangian form and optimum is
characterized in terms of equality conditions with a
multiplier and with a complementary slackness condition
associated with the constraint.
• Conceptually straightforward to apply preceding method.
For details, see Christiano‐Fisher, ‘Algorithms for Solving
Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints’,
2000, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
– This paper describes alternative strategies, based on
parameterizing the expectation function, that may be easier,
when constraints are occasionally binding constraints.
Perturbation Approach
• Straightforward application of the perturbation approach, as in the simple
example, requires knowing the value taken on by the policy rule at a point.
• The overwhelming majority of models used in macro do have this
property.
– In these models, can compute non‐stochastic steady state without any
knowledge of the policy rule, g.
k∗
– Non‐stochastic steady state is such that
k∗ g k∗ , 0 , 0
1
– and 1−
k∗ log .
1− 1−
Perturbation
• Error function:
ct
R k t , a t , ; g ≡ E t u ′ f k t , a t − exp g k t , a t ,
ct 1
fK g kt, at, , at t 1 0,
kt, at, .
– for all values of
• So, all order derivatives of R with respect to its
arguments are zero (assuming they exist!).
Four (Easy to Show) Results About
Perturbations
• Taylor series expansion of policy rule:
linear component of policy rule
g kt, at, ≃ k gk kt − k ga at g
1 g kt − k 2
g aa a 2t g 2 g ka k t − k a t gk kt − k ga at ...
2 kk
– g 0 : to a first order approximation, ‘certainty equivalence’
– All terms found by solving linear equations, except coefficient on past
gk
endogenous variable, ,which requires solving for eigenvalues
– To second order approximation: slope terms certainty equivalent –
gk ga 0
– Quadratic, higher order terms computed recursively.
First Order Perturbation
• Working out the following derivatives and
evaluating at k t k ∗ , a t 0
R k kt , at , ; g R a kt , at , ; g R kt , at , ; g 0
‘problematic term’ Source of certainty equivalence
• Implies: In linear approximation
Rk u ′′ f k − e g g k − u ′ f Kk g k − u ′′ f k g k − e g g 2k f K 0
Ra u ′′ f a − e g g a − u ′ f Kk g a f Ka − u ′′ f k g a fa − eg gk ga ga fK 0
R − u′eg u ′′ f k − e g g k f K g 0
Absence of arguments in these functions reflects they are evaluated in k t k∗ , at 0
Technical notes for following slide
u ′′ f k − e g g k − u ′ f Kk g k − u ′′ f k g k − e g g 2k f K 0
1 f − e g g − u ′ f Kk g − f g − e g g 2 f K 0
k k k k k k
u ′′
1 f − 1 e g u ′ f Kk f f K g e g g 2 f K 0
k k k k
u ′′
1 fk − 1 u ′ f Kk fk
g k g 2k 0
g
g
e fK fK u e fK
′′ g e
1 − 1 1 u ′ f Kk gk g 2k 0
u ′′ e g f K
• Simplify this further using:
f K ~steady state equation
fK K −1 exp a 1− , K ≡ exp k
exp −1 k a 1−
fk exp k a 1− exp k fK eg
f Kk − 1 exp −1 k a
f KK −1 K −2 exp a − 1 exp −2 k a f Kk e −g
• to obtain polynomial on next slide.
First Order, cont’d
Rk 0
• Rewriting term:
1 − 1 1 u ′ f KK gk g 2k 0
u ′′ f K
0 g k 1, g k 1
• There are two solutions,
– Theory (see Stokey‐Lucas) tells us to pick the smaller
one.
– In general, could be more than one eigenvalue less
than unity: multiple solutions.
gk ga
• Conditional on solution to , solved for
Ra 0
linearly using equation.
• These results all generalize to multidimensional
case
Numerical Example
• Parameters taken from Prescott (1986):
• Second order approximation:
3.88 0.98 0.996 0.06 0.07 0
ĝ k t , a t−1 , t , k∗ gk kt − k∗ ga at g
0.014 0.00017 0.067 0.079 0.000024 0.00068 1
1 g kk kt − k 2
g aa a 2t g 2
2
−0.035 −0.028 0 0
g ka kt − k at gk kt − k ga at
• Following is a graph that compares the policy
rules implied by the first and second order
perturbation.
• The graph itself corresponds to the baseline
parameterization, and results are reported in
parentheses for risk aversion equal to 20.
‘If initial capital is 20 percent away from steady state, then capital
choice differs by 0.03 (0.035) percent between the two approximations.’
‘If shock is 6 standard deviations away from its mean, then capital
choice differs by 0.14 (0.18) percent between the two approximations’
0.04
0.18
0.035 0.16
order) - k t+1 (1 order) )
st
0.025 0.12
=2 0.1
0.02
= 20
0.08
nd
nd
0.015
100*( kt+1 (2
0.005 0.02
0 0
-20 -10 0 10 20 -20 -10 0 10 20
* 100*at, percent deviation of initial shock from steady state
100*( kt - k ), percent deviation of initial capital from steady state
Number in parentheses at top correspond to = 20.
Conclusion
• For modest US‐sized fluctuations and for
aggregate quantities, it is reasonable to work
with first order perturbations.
• First order perturbation: linearize (or, log‐
linearize) equilibrium conditions around non‐
stochastic steady state and solve the resulting
system.
– This approach assumes ‘certainty equivalence’. Ok, as
a first order approximation.
List of endogenous variables determined at t
Solution by Linearization
• (log) Linearized Equilibrium Conditions:
Et 0 zt 1 1zt 2 z t−1 0 st 1 1 st 0
• Posit Linear Solution:
s t − Ps t−1 − t 0.
zt Az t−1 Bs t Exogenous shocks
• To satisfy equil conditions, A and B must:
2
0A 1A 2I 0, F 0 0B P 1 0A 1 B 0
• If there is exactly one A with eigenvalues less
than unity in absolute value, that’s the solution.
Otherwise, multiple solutions.
• Conditional on A, solve linear system for B.