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IJCMA
24,4 A literature review of cognitive
biases in negotiation processes
Andrea Caputo
374 Department of Economics, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
lessons can be drawn from this body of literature? The purpose of this paper is to review and discuss
the limited research on cognitive biases in the context of negotiations.
Design/methodology/approach – This article reviews research from judgment and
decision-making, conflict management, psychology, and management literatures to systematize
what we already know about cognitive biases in negotiations.
Findings – Decision-making studies have mainly identified 21 biases that may lead to lower quality
decisions. Only five of those biases have been studied relating to negotiations: the anchoring, the
overconfidence, the framing, the status quo and the self-serving bias. Moreover, negotiation literature
has identified five additional biases that affect negotiation processes: the fixed-pie error, the
incompatibility error, the intergroup bias, the relationship bias and the toughness bias. Biased
behavior differs across cultures and emotional mood.
Research limitations/implications – Implications for future research include building
comprehensive models of how negotiators can overcome cognitive biases, studying interconnections
between different biases, and increasing complexity of the studies to provide practitioners with more
practical advice.
Originality/value – The literature reviewed in this paper spans diverse disciplines and perspectives.
This paper can be a starting point for researchers interested in understanding how cognitive biases
affect negotiations. Moreover, it could be a starting point for future research on this field.
Keywords Decision making, Negotiation, Bias, Cognition, Heuristic
Paper type Literature review
Introduction
Negotiations are essential and fundamental moments of life. Improving negotiation
skills, as well as increasing the ability to negotiate effectively, is crucial in managerial,
political, and business contexts. Simon’s (1957) bounded rationality acknowledges that
individuals, while attempting to make rational decisions, often lack important
information and the relevant criteria of problems, and prior literature in psychology
has demonstrated that negotiators do not always act rationally.
What is the discipline’s current grasp of cognitive biases in negotiation processes?
What lessons can be drawn from this body of literature? Decision-making studies
about cognitive biases have mainly focused on individual decision-making. However,
The author thanks James Bailey, Gianpaolo Abatecola, Matt Cronin, and the anonymous
International Journal of Conflict reviewers for helpful and valuable comments, Martina Dorigo for personal support, the Research
Management
Vol. 24 No. 4, 2013 Program in Social and Organizational Learning at The George Washington University School of
pp. 374-398 Business for hosting the research, and the University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Roberto Cafferata
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1044-4068
and Corrado Cerruti for having supported this research and granted his visiting at The George
DOI 10.1108/IJCMA-08-2012-0064 Washington University.
negotiation decisions are often made in conjunction with other parties, which may Cognitive biases
commonly have different interests (Bazerman and Carroll, 1987; Fisher et al., 1981; Lax in negotiation
and Sebenius, 1986; Lewicki et al., 2005; Pruitt, 1981; Raiffa, 1982; Thompson, 2001;
Walton and McKersie, 1965; Zartman, 1977). As individual decisions are often affected processes
by cognitive biases, which rarely make these decisions completely rational, the same
applies to negotiated decisions between several parties. In this paper the term
rationality refers to the decision-making process that is logically expected to lead to the 375
optimal result, given an accurate assessment of the negotiator’s values and risk
preferences (Bazerman and Moore, 2009, p. 4).
The topic of cognitive biases within negotiations has been analyzed in the
International Journal of Conflict Management on a few occasions with reference to the
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perception of fairness (Paese and Yonker, 2001) and multilateral negotiations (Traavik,
2011). Some recent reviews of the literature on cognitive biases appeared in the
literature, but they focused only on biased decision-making processes (Bazerman and
Moore, 2009; Brooks, 2011; Eberlin and Tatum, 2005; Morgeson and Campion, 1997).
Although it is commonly seen as an important topic, the investigation of cognitive
biases in the field of negotiations is under-researched. A gap in the literature is
identified in journal articles systematizing the intersection of negotiation studies, from
the group decision-making literature, and cognitive biases studies, and from the
judgment and decision-making literature. While Thompson et al. (2006) critically
reviewed the implications of biased decision-making processes for negotiations, this
work intends to help to fill this gap through a systematic review of the literature that
bridges the two areas of research.
The aim of this study is to systematically review those studies in the management
literature that analyzed the concept of bias within the negotiations’ field, and to
suggest a series of new research trajectories that might emerge as a result. In fact,
cognitive misperceptions can highly bias human behavior when making judgments
and decisions in negotiations. In this paper I provide a theoretical background on
decision-makers’ cognition to introduce the research and provide context; then the
literature is systematically reviewed and its results are discussed. This leads me on to
conclude that limited research, with alternate results, has been done with reference to
the interaction between biases, on the role of culture, mood and personality, and on the
effects of learning and experience on negotiators’ judgment. Finally, I suggest that
further trajectories of research might be on integrative and multilateral negotiations,
on the role of third parties, and, finally, on a more deep understanding of how to
overcome biases in negotiations.
Theoretical framework
This section of the paper presents a brief introduction about the so-called negotiation
theory and about judgment and decision-making literature, which have been used
during the research as theoretical background. Among this literature, it is commonly
acknowledged that negotiation is a process through which two or more parties could
reach a needed joint decision, while having different preferences (Fisher et al., 1981;
Gulliver, 1977; Lax and Sebenius, 1986; Lewicki et al., 2005; Pruitt, 1981; Raiffa, 1982;
Rubin and Brown, 1975; Zartman, 1977). Due to the interdependence (Thompson, 1967)
that reigns over and inside multi-actor decision-making processes, negotiation
outcomes are affected by the decisions taken by all the parties involved. This can make
IJCMA decision-making in negotiation even more complicated than individual
24,4 decision-making (Bazerman and Moore, 2009). Thus, the quality of the negotiated
agreement is affected by the rationality of those decisions that led to the agreement:
this implies that the decisions and behaviors of each party matter.
Decision-making studies can most often be divided within three perspectives: the
normative, the descriptive, and the prescriptive (Bell et al., 1988). In particular, the
376 normative approach has tended to find the rules of individual behaviors. This
approach is founded on the economic concepts of absolute rationality and optimization,
and takes into account how decisions should be made. Economists, through the
so-called Game theory, were the first to provide normative advice to negotiators and
decision-makers. The primary advantage of those studies is that, given absolute
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rationality, they provide the most precise prescriptive advice available to negotiators
(Bazerman and Moore, 2009). The descriptive approach, conversely, has tended to
study how decision are really made, basing its analysis on real observation and on the
concepts of bounded rationality (Simon, 1957). Descriptive studies have contradicted
Game theorists rely on two aspects: the human ability to be fully informed about all
options, combinations and associated outcomes, and the human ability to act in a fully
rational way. Finally, the prescriptive approach has tried to merge the former
approaches to study how decisions could be made better (Bell et al., 1988).
As an alternative to Game theory, Raiffa (1982) and Raiffa et al. (2002) was among
the first to develop a decision-analytic approach to negotiations, focusing on how
erring individuals actually behave. His goal was to provide guidance for negotiators
involved in real conflicts, given the most likely profile of the other parties’ expected
behavior. Thus, a prescriptive theory has been developed as he tried to give advice in
real situations. Other interdisciplinary studies have built the so-called negotiation
theory, in order to consider how a rational negotiator should behave in real
negotiations (Fisher et al., 1981; Komorita, 1985; Kramer, 1991; Lax and Sebenius, 1986;
Lewicki et al., 1992; Raiffa, 1982; Sheppard, 1984; Walton and McKersie, 1965; Zartman,
1977). The negotiation theory takes into account the negotiation’s structure and the
other negotiator (Hammond et al., 2001), as well as the common errors that negotiators
and their opponents make (Bazerman et al., 1992, 2000; Thompson, 2001).
This theory implies that humans are not perfectly rational, and have emotional and
cognitive limitations (Cyert and March, 1963; Simon, 1957). Furthermore, they lack a
perfect and common knowledge of a situation and of the possible interests and
behaviors of the counterpart (Lax and Sebenius, 1986). The negotiating structure is
composed of three basic elements:
(1) the parties involved;
(2) the subjects or issues under negotiation; and
(3) the preferences, and thus the interests and positions of the parties.
Consequently, a rational negotiator should assess the key information about each
party’s alternative to a negotiated agreement (Fisher et al., 1981), each party’s set of
interests, and the relative importance of each party’s interests (Lax and Sebenius, 1986;
Raiffa, 1982; Raiffa et al., 2002). Those studies have provided plenty of tools to increase
the negotiator’s performance in achieving satisfactory agreements, but are we so
rational to use it when we need it?
During the last four decades, bounded rationality (Simon, 1957) served as the Cognitive biases
integrating concept for the field of behavioral decision research. Simon’s (1957) in negotiation
bounded rationality acknowledges that individuals, while attempting to make rational
decisions, often lack important information and relevant criteria of problems. processes
Additionally, decision-makers have time and cost constraints that limit the quality and
quantity of information, and they retain only a relatively small amount of those.
Finally, decision-makers cannot calculate the optimal choice in a variety of 377
alternatives, due to perceptual errors and computational limitations. Consequently,
decision-makers simply search until they find a satisfactory solution that leads to an
acceptable level of performance. In addition, some studies have begun to relate
individual errors to motivational and emotional influences (Alloy and Abramson, 1979;
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These heuristics not only concern particular individuals, they can be applied by almost
everyone, as research has demonstrated (Bazerman and Moore, 2009; Brooks, 2011;
Eberlin and Tatum, 2005; Plous, 1993; Wickham, 2003; Workman, 2012). According to
Bazerman and Moore (2009) common biases can be associated and categorized with the
“emanating” heuristic as shown in Table I.
In terms of these biases, one of the most straightforward interpretations was
provided by Hammond et al. (2001), who proposed the concept of hidden traps in
decision-making for considering all those situations in which the human brain
abnormally deviates from deciding rationally. In sum, cognitive misperceptions can
highly bias human behavior when making judgments and decisions, and this is true in
negotiations too (Thompson et al., 2006).
Method
This section of the article describes the method used to produce the systematic
literature review (Cook et al., 1997; Cooper, 1998; Denyer and Tranfield, 2008; Tranfield
et al., 2003), which is a method of conducting research that emerged within the UK
medical profession because of the need for better evidence-based research. Since then it
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1. Ease of recall Individuals judge events that are more easily recalled from memory, based on Availability heuristics
vividness or recency, to be more numerous than events of equal frequent instances,
which are less easily recalled
2. Retrievability Individuals are biased in their assessments of the frequency of events based on Availability heuristics
how their memory structures affect the search process
3. Insensitivity to base rates When assessing the likelihood of events, individuals tend to ignore base rates if Representativeness heuristics
any other descriptive information is provided – even if it is irrelevant
4. Insensitivity to sample When assessing the reliability of sample information, individuals frequently fail to Representativeness heuristics
size appreciate the role of sample size
5. Misconceptions of chance Individuals expect that a sequence of data generated by a random process will Representativeness heuristics
look “random”, even when sequence is too short for those expectations to be
statistically valid
6. Regression to the mean Individuals tend to ignore the fact that extreme events tend to regress towards the Representativeness heuristics
mean on subsequent trials
7. The conjunction fallacy Individuals falsely judge that conjunctions – two events occurring – are more Representativeness heuristics
probable than a more global set of occurrences of which the conjunction is a subset
8. The confirmation trap Individuals tend to seek confirmatory information for what they think is true and Confirmation heuristics
fail to search for disconfirmatory evidence
9. Anchoring Individuals make estimates for values based upon an initial value – derived from Confirmation heuristics
past events, random assignment, or whatever information is available – and
typically make insufficient adjustments from that anchor when establishing a final
value
10. Conjunctive – and Individuals exhibit a bias toward overestimating the probability of conjunctive Confirmation heuristics
disjunctive – events bias events and underestimating the probability of disjunctive events
11. Overconfidence Individuals tend to be overconfident of the infallibility of their judgments when Confirmation heuristics
answering moderately to extremely difficult questions
12. Hindsight and the curse of After finding out whether or not an event occurred, individuals tend to Confirmation heuristics
knowledge overestimate the degree to which they would have predicted the correct outcome.
Furthermore, individuals fail to ignore information they have that others do not
when predicting others’ behavior
(continued)
processes
emanating heuristics
in negotiation
379
Table I.
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24,4
380
Table I.
IJCMA
13. Information selection Individuals tend to ignore accessible, perceivable, and important information, Bounded awareness
while paying attention to other equally accessible but irrelevant information
14. Inattentional blindness Individuals fail to see the obvious because it violates common assumptions about Bounded awareness
our visual awareness. People have the tendency not to see what they are not
looking for, even when they are looking directly at it
15. Change blindness Individuals tend to fail to notice visual change in their physical environments Bounded awareness
16. Focalism Individuals tend to focus too much on a particular event and too little on other Bounded awareness
events that are just as likely to occur
17. Framing Individuals have different perceptions and different reactions based on how the Risk aversion
problem is posed to them. Alternative wordings of the same objective information
can significant alter the decisions that people typically make despite the fact that
differences between frames should have no effect on the rational decision
18. Status quo Individuals tend to maintain the status quo rather than acting to improve their Risk aversion
outcomes
19. Emotion and cognition Emotional response is often in disagreement with the decision that an individual Affect heuristics
collision would make after more thoughtful reasoning
20. Self-serving When presented with identical information, individuals perceive a situation in Affect heuristics
dramatically different ways, depending on their role in the situation
21. Emotional bias A good mood increases the reliance on heuristics and results in more biased Emotions
judgments
Source: Adapted and integrated from Bazerman and Moore (2009, p. 41)
has been used across many disciplines, including management research (Thorpe et al., Cognitive biases
2005). The aim is to collect and link together as many already existing studies as in negotiation
possible, relevant to the defined topic of research. The basic principles behind adopting
a systematic review method are (Thorpe et al., 2005): processes
.
transparency;
.
clarity;
381
.
focus;
.
unifies research and practitioner communities;
.
equality;
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.
accessibility;
.
broad coverage; and
. synthesis.
This systematic review followed three stages: planning the review; conducting the
review; and finally reporting and dissemination (Tranfield et al., 2003). Thus,
consistent with several recent systematic assessments of the management literature
(Crossan and Apaydin, 2010; David and Han, 2004; Newbert, 2007), a set of criteria has
been established. A review panel was formed by some academics with the aim of
defining the field of research, choosing the keywords and the databases, and
developing the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The research string was developed
through the previous knowledge on the negotiation literature and through the advice of
experts’ panels in the field of study. The chosen root search string was set in order to
broaden the review’s scope.
As shown in Table II, the following set of criteria has been established. The review
comprises English peer reviewed journal articles only, by using “ProQuest” as the
research platform (the chosen databases were ABI/INFORM Complete, Accounting
and Tax, Banking Information Source, ProQuest Asian Business and Reference and
ProQuest European Business). The substantive relevance of the articles focusing on
negotiation theory was ensured by requiring all the selected articles to contain the
word “negotiation *”. In addition, in order to ensure the substantive relevance of the
articles’ focus on biases, it has been requirement was set for all the selected articles to
contain the word “bias *”. A total number of 84 results, after checking for duplicates,
was taken into consideration for a critical abstract reading to ensure substantive
context. Finally, a “snowballing” technique was adopted to support the results from the
previous phases.
3 All the articles containing the “bias *” and “negotiation *” search words in their 84
abstract
4 All the articles whose abstracts are substantively relevant 23
5 All the articles whose texts are relevant 19
6 Snowballing technique 25
Table II.
Source: Elaboration on the dataset Summary of the results
IJCMA The final number of articles for the research piece was 25, covering a time span
24,4 between 1985 and 2012. This size is consistent with the results of other reviews
published in management journals in the last decade (Abatecola et al., 2011; Brooks,
2011; Cafferata et al., 2009; Campbell-Hunt, 2000; Carpenter et al., 2004; Dalton et al.,
1998; Eberlin and Tatum, 2005; Ketchen et al., 1997; Stankovic and Luthans, 1997).
Table III categorizes the overall population per academic journal. Results show that
the works within the dataset are published in 16 different international journals. Many
Figure 1.
Articles’ distribution over
the time period
n Journal Articles
three categories: 57.89 percent (n ¼ 11) of the population used undergraduate students,
36.83 percent (n ¼ 7) used graduate students, and 5.26 percent (n ¼ 1) used managers.
No significant correlations emerge between the type of participants and the bias
studied in the experiments.
Considering the distribution of the bias analyzed, a descriptive set of statistics is
presented below. From the articles, 11 biases have been studied, all of which are
presented below. In general, every study analyzed one bias, but the few of them that
analyzed two biases have been counted twice in order to provide normalized statistics,
as shown in Table IV.
Almost all the studies in the population dataset analyzed the bias in a dyadic
negotiation context, only one, very recent study undertook the experiment in a
multiparty negotiation context (Traavik, 2011).
Regarding integrative and distributive negotiations, 48 percent (n ¼ 12) of the
studies used a distributive negotiation context, 32 percent (n ¼ 8) of the studies used
an integrative negotiation context, while 12 percent (n ¼ 3) of the population used both
integrative and distributive contexts. However, 8 percent (n ¼ 2) of the studies have
been considered not applicable for these categories, but no significant correlations
emerge between these categories and the bias studied.
In term of the context of the negotiation used for the analysis of the bias, seven
different contexts have been found as shown in Table V.
n Bias Studies %
The buyer-seller context is the most used within these studies, and it has been used
mostly in those studies analyzing anchoring bias, fixed-pie error and framing effects.
Moreover, simulations regarding labor negotiations have been mainly used by those
analyzing the self-serving bias. While the emotional bias has only been analyzed
within negotiations on crisis and producer-director’s conflict on a movie project. The
main findings from these studies are taken into analysis in the following section of the
paper.
Discussion
In this section, the findings from the literature review are discussed in order to
systematize knowledge and to draw some recommendations and implications for future
research. According to the biases found in the articles, the articles are grouped within the
dataset into 11 clusters, as shown in Table VI, namely “fixed-pie error”, “framing”,
“self-serving”, “anchoring”, “emotional bias”, “overconfidence”, “incompatibility error”,
“intergroup bias”, “relationship bias”, “status quo” and “toughness bias”.
n Bias Study
frames exist, risk aversion dominates, and a negotiated settlement is predicted. Further
research (Bazerman et al., 1985) found that positively framed negotiators completed
significantly more transactions than negatively framed negotiators, consistent with
Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory. Based on those studies, it appears
that both parties become risk-seekers when considering potential outcomes in terms of
what they have to lose (negative frame), while if they evaluate potential outcomes in
terms of gains (positive frame), they become risk-averse which increases the likelihood
of a negotiated settlement. Positively framed bargainers seem to be more cooperative,
more likely to settle, achieve greater profits, and achieve greater joint benefits than
negatively framed bargainers do (Bazerman et al., 1985; Neale and Bazerman, 1985;
Neale et al., 1987).
Neale et al. (1987) found that the rights, obligations, and expectations associated
with a role within the negotiation, frame the participants social interactions. In
addition, Bottom and Studt (1993), sought to develop a comprehensive explanation of
the role of framing and analyzed it in terms of the integrative and distributive aspects
of bargaining. Risk attitude and framing affects the approach negotiators take in
dealing with the dilemma between “claiming value” and “creating value” (Lax and
Sebenius, 1986). Negatively framed bargainers appear to perform better than their
positively framed counterparts in distributive situations, and appear to be more
affected by self-serving bias (Chang et al., 2008). Notwithstanding, the latter appears to
reach more integrative settlements than the formers (Bottom and Studt, 1993). This
implies further explanation. A risk-seeking negotiator should be more willing to
employ tactics that threaten both bargainers with the disagreement outcome, also
called “claiming tactics” (Lax and Sebenius, 1986). Because risk-averse negotiators
want to avoid disagreement, they should be unlikely to engage in these risky tactics
and should be susceptible to exploitation from those who do employ them.
Thompson and Hastie (1990) found that this error is not related with the fixed-sum
error, even if the theory predicted it to be, and it affects a significant number of
negotiators.
Negotiators often demonstrate modest levels of interpersonal understanding, as
measured in terms of predictive accuracy regarding the other negotiator’s payoff.
However, research showed that an accurate interpersonal understanding was most
strongly associated with better payoffs (Mumpower et al., 2004; Thompson and Hastie,
1990; Traavik, 2011). Thus, the fixed-pie bias is erroneous and can reasonably be
expected to impede the achievement of integrative agreements (Gelfand and
Christakopoulou, 1999; Mumpower et al., 2004; Thompson and Hastie, 1990). The
fixed-pie bias can be considered a bias only within integrative negotiations. In fact, in
distributive problems the fixed-pie perception is not a bias, but reflects the accuracy of
the understanding of the problem structure (Mumpower et al., 2004).
Thompson and Hastie (1990) found that individuals enter negotiation situations
with fixed-pie perspectives and often fail to realize that their counterparts have
priorities opposite to theirs by the end of negotiations. This has been shown to be more
prevalent in the USA, because of the individualistic culture, as compared to Greece, a
collectivistic culture (Gelfand and Christakopoulou, 1999). Interestingly, this suggests
that cultural processes might be involved in the perpetuation of such biases.
Negotiators mainly seem to begin the negotiation with accurate perceptions and then
become less accurate as a result of the negotiation dynamic. One implication of these
biases is that negotiators, over time, may become overconfident about their negotiating
abilities (Gelfand and Christakopoulou, 1999; Larrick and Wu, 2007).
Another negotiation characteristic that could affect fixed-pie errors is the number of
parties involved. In this regard, Traavik (2011) demonstrated that the more the parties
the higher the fixed-pie bias, in addition, dyads outperform groups on both the
economic and subjective measures of outcomes. As a consequence of the fixed-pie bias,
in distributive negotiations, two related errors emerge: the small-pie bias and the
large-slice bias (Larrick and Wu, 2007). Negotiators consistently underestimate the size
of the bargaining zone – the small-pie bias – and, by implication, overestimate the
share of the surplus they claim – the large-slice bias (Larrick and Wu, 2007).
biases affecting the negotiation process, such as the intergroup bias and the
relationship bias. Intergroup bias was analyzed by Lewis (2011) in a study based on a
survey that revealed how, in a negotiation context, performance expectations for group
members are unrealistically inflated and that evaluations of group performance might
be based on unrealistic expectations. Both could affect the counterpart’s selection
process, which is called relationship bias and has been found by Reb (2010). As
negotiation preparation also includes the searching and selection for potential
counterparts with whom to negotiate (Raiffa et al., 2002), an influence in this process by
situational determinants of past negotiations experience emerges.
Status quo bias meets little focus in the respective articles studied. Korobkin’s (1998)
evidence suggest that individuals negotiating contracts have a preference for inaction,
that exists in situations in which legal defaults and standard form contracts will
govern absent action. Which means a biased judgment against alternative solutions.
Finally, Heifetz and Segev (2004), in a theoretical study, found support for the existence
of a toughness bias, which is similar to the so-called “endowment effect” that affect
seller’s behavior (Kahneman et al., 1990). “In the course of bargaining a buyer with a
toughness bias believes the object is worth to him less than the objective worth”
(Heifetz and Segev, 2004).
Table VII shows a synthesis of prominent findings within the analyzed literature, by
relating each bias with those variables that have influence on it and the effect on the
negotiation. In the right section, interactions with other biases, as presented in the
literature or supposed from the systematization of the literature, are presented. For
example, the role played in the negotiation leads to different frames of the situation and
affects self-serving interpretation of information. Consequently, depending on which role
individuals are playing, even when presented with identical information set, this will
affect the probability of reaching a negotiated settlement (Thompson and Loewenstein,
1992), the final profit achieved (Bazerman et al., 1985; Bottom and Studt, 1993; Neale and
Bazerman, 1985), and finally the satisfaction over the negotiation experience (Babcock
et al., 1995; Gelfand et al., 2002; Thompson and Loewenstein, 1992).
effects in negotiations
Biases influences and
Cognitive biases
Table VII.
389
IJCMA (Newell and Simon, 1972; Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Less was done with reference
24,4 to negotiating contexts. The present study found only 23 articles, which analyze how,
why, and when cognitive biases affect negotiations. We all negotiate in almost every
field of our life, managers also negotiate almost everywhere. As is known, negotiation
processes are affected by a strong interdependence that reign over them, thus
negotiation outcomes are affected by the decisions of all the bounded rational parties
390 involved. In sum, cognitive misperceptions can highly bias the human behavior when
making judgments and decisions, even in negotiations.
Decision-making studies have mainly identified 21 biases that may lead to lower
quality decisions, and not all of them have been analyzed within the negotiation
literature. Only five of those biases have been studied: the anchoring, the
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overconfidence, the framing, the status quo and the self-serving bias. Moreover,
negotiation literature has identified five additional biases that affect negotiation
processes: the fixed-pie error, the incompatibility error, the intergroup bias, the
relationship bias and the toughness bias. These biases were studied in the last decade,
while the others have been studied mostly in the 1980s and 1990s. Thus, it can be
assumed an evolutionary process in the literature on bias in negotiation. A process that
may need additional efforts to be further developed. A systematic research program
grounded in the management literature can help provide additional insights and
knowledge. Additionally, a grounded theory could provide practical recommendations
for negotiators and managers. The following are some implications for future research,
and some suggestions for practitioners based on existing research.
By comparing the findings from the analyzed literature, it is possible to point to
some interactions between the studied biases, as shown in Table VII. The emotional
bias, which is affected by the mood and affects pre-negotiation expectations and
in-negotiation judgments, has influence on the level of negotiators’ overconfidence
(Kramer et al., 1993). In fact, positive mood leads to excessive optimism, which then
increases overconfidence. The latter is correlated with framing and fixed-pie error as
well. Negative frame induces negotiators to seek and take risk; this behavior increases
levels of overconfidence and leverages the negative correlation with the likelihood of
reaching an agreement (Neale and Bazerman, 1985).
Furthermore, the large-slice bias, as a consequence of the fixed-pie assumption,
leads negotiators to be overconfident with their abilities (Larrick and Wu, 2007). Thus,
in integrative negotiations the fixed-pie error not only can lead to a poorer outcome, but
can also decrease the likelihood of reaching an agreement. The fixed-pie error is also
related with framing, self-serving and relationship bias. Since negotiators start
negotiations with a fixed-pie assumption, this will interact with framing causes and
consequences (Bazerman et al., 1985). The fixed-pie error has an effect on the
perception of fairness and is affected by the level of interpersonal understanding
(Mumpower, 2004; Thompson and Hastie, 1990; Thompson and Loewenstein, 1992).
Consequently, the satisfaction over the negotiation experience is also affected, namely
the large-slice bias increases the level of satisfaction, and this will have a bearing on
the relationship bias about the future selection of counterparts (Reb, 2010).
questions seem to remain unanswered, and they deserve specific research attention.
Finally, it emerges that a lack of studies concerning a systemic governance model of
the negotiations that would take into account negotiators’ cognition and heuristics in
order to guide, or nudge (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008) them through better decisions and
better agreements. In fact, heuristics as errors presupposes that the traditional
subjective maximization of utility thesis is correct in the main, but that these outliers
are errors or deviations. Why do not we look also at heuristics as shortcuts that work?
Mediators could benefit from such insights, instead of studying just the way they were
not rational. Eventually, a focused program of research on cognitive biases in
negotiations could help in systematizing knowledge and building a prescriptive theory
on it. This could provide more practical advice on how to overcome biases within
negotiations.
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Vol. 14 No. 1, pp. 133-141.
1. Gianpaolo Abatecola. 2014. Untangling self-reinforcing processes in managerial decision making. Co-
evolving heuristics?. Management Decision 52:5, 934-949. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
2. Fabian Jasper, Tuulia M. Ortner. 2014. The Tendency to Fall for Distracting Information While Making
Judgments. European Journal of Psychological Assessment 30, 193-207. [CrossRef]
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