BUILDING A TRULY

SUSTAINABLE
AVIATION INDUSTRY
Content
Introduction3 The search for sustainable 17
alternatives
Aviation’s contribution 4
to climate change E-fuels could be part of 20
the answer
Growing pressure for  7
sustainable actions No single silver-bullet 24

Government responses 11 Establishing an e-fuel consortium 28

The aviation industry’s plan 14 Get involved today 31

2
Introduction
Last Autumn at a student science
event in London, an Accenture
team asked four different groups
of secondary students what they
thought the biggest challenge was
facing the aviation industry. Their
answers were as consistent as
they were unequivocal: pollution,
emissions, global warming – each
answer pointed to a growing
concern on the impact of aviation
on the health of the planet.
The result was hardly unexpected, yet it was telling how emphatic
the students were with their answers and how quickly the answers
came. Upon retelling the story to a colleague with a long career in the
industry, he ominously remarked, “yes, my grandchildren no longer
think flying is cool.” Throughout the world, aviation is on the backfoot
in the climate debate.
Although passenger traffic is currently at its lowest levels since the
1970s due to the ongoing pandemic, the need for action has not
gone away. As the industry recovers, Accenture believes that new
initiatives, innovative technology, and proactive policies can lay
the foundation for a truly sustainable aviation industry.
3
AVIATION’S
CONTRIBUTION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE 4
In 2019, the aviation industry accounted for about 2% of global
carbon-dioxide emissions according to IATA1. Most of this CO2
comes directly from the fuel aircraft burn, with the industry
consuming nearly a billion litres of fuel each day in 2019.
Tangential activities (such as airports, ground vehicles, catering)
also contribute to emissions, but these are generally small
compared to fuel burn. A typical airport, for example, generates
less than 1% of the CO2 caused by aircraft serving this airport2.

Compared to other industries, 2% of emissions may seem small,

but aviation stands out for several reasons. First, climate change
is affected by more than just CO2, and aviation’s total impact on
the planet’s climate could be as high as 5%3 when considering
additional factors such as nitrous oxides (NOX), contrails, and the
high altitudes where emissions occur. Second, aviation serves
a relatively small portion of the world population compared to
other industries, so the emissions per user are much higher.

1 billion litres of jet fuel

per day
5
Less than half of Americans flew in 20184 while 92% of US European emissions by sector
households own at least one vehicle5. Finally, whereas many Change in GHG emissions from 1990 to 2016
other industries have been able to curb emissions over the last
decade, aviation has fewer alternatives to reduce emissions. Waste -42%
As the chart on the right shows, most other industries in Europe
have been able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since
1990, while international aviation has more than doubled its Indusry -38%

emissions. In fact, an airline was recently named as one of the

top 10 polluters in Europe, a list historically dominated only by Energy Supply -32%
coal-burning power plants.

Residential &
As other industries continue to reduce emissions, aviation is on commercial
-21%
course to represent a larger portion of CO2 output. Accenture
has forecasted global CO2 emissions from aviation to increase
Agriculture -20%
by 40% by 2040 from 2019 levels. Despite new technology, the
efficiency of the aircraft cannot offset the substantial growth
Non-Aviation
planned over the next couple of decades. Clearly, the industry 9%
Transport
needs more than just newer and more-efficient aircraft to
address the climate challenge. International
aviation 114%

Source: European Environment Agency

6
GROWING PRESSURE
FOR SUSTAINABLE
ACTIONS 7
The link between climate change and Rail and Domestic Air Travel Growth in Sweden
emissions is not new, but the level of Quarterly Year-on-Year Growth in Passengers Carried
public concern certainly is. Nowhere is
2016 2017 2018 2019
the shift in attitude more apparent than 15%
in Sweden, the origin of the flygskam
(or flight-shame) movement. With
10%
hashtags such as #jagstannerpåmarken
(I stay on the ground), proponents of
the movement have encouraged people 5%
to reduce flying and find alternative forms
of transportation. Initial data suggests
0%
the movement is having some effect.
Recent figures from Eurostat show a -2%
distinct decrease in domestic air traffic -5% -4%
-5%
offset by an increase in rail traffic. -6%

-10% -9%
-10%
-11%

-15%

Air Rail
Source: Eurostat

8
It remains to be seen whether this is a glancing statistic Rail options for air travellers
or the start of a broader trend. In some countries, Rail alternatives for domestic air passengers by country
passengers may not have alternative transport modes Total domestic pax
available. Accenture analysed domestic air and rail travel Spain 16% 33.9
options throughout Europe to determine how many air Italy 22% 28.6
travellers had practical competing rail options on the France 56% 21.9
same day. UK 38% 20.5
Germany 85% 17.4
The chart on the right shows the percentage of passengers Norway 7% 11.7
who had rail options with trip durations within 3, 4 and Greece <1% 8.4
5 hours of the equivalent flight time. Some countries, Sweden 44% 6.4
such as Germany and France, may be more susceptible
Portugal 16% 3.5
to modal shifts, while passengers in countries like
Finland 2% 1.9
Norway have fewer competing options. Hence, a lack of
Romania 2% 1.3
shift to rail should not be seen as a sign that passengers
Denmark 79% 1.2
are not concerned about the environmental impact of
Poland 66% 0.9
aviation; instead, these passengers may lack a more
sustainable option. For these individuals, rather than Ukraine 39% 0.6

asking themselves “how should I travel?”, they may be Iceland <1% 0.3

asking “should I travel at all?”.

Air passengers with a rail option…
within 3 hours of flight duration within 4 hours of flight duration
within 5 hours of flight duration

9
A recent UBS study indicates this sentiment may be gathering
momentum. In the study, 21% of respondents from the UK, US,
Germany and France indicated they had reduced their flying
in the last 12 months out of environmental concerns. UBS
21%
of respondents from the UK, US,
subsequently revised their air traffic growth estimates downwards Germany and France indicated
for Europe and the US, with far-reaching consequences for the they had reduced their flying
entire industry. The COVID-19 pandemic may be accelerating in the last 12 months out of
these trends as consumers increasingly align their purchasing environmental concerns
behaviour to their personal values.

For countries that have started relaxing restrictions, “stay-cations”

are becoming an increasingly popular option to maintain social
distancing. As the travel industry recovers, these behaviours may
start to influence consumer’s choice for travel. For airlines, being
“greener” than the competition may no longer be good enough
in the consumer’s mind. Without clear action from the industry as a
whole, aviation risks becoming the dirty industry of the 21st century.

10
GOVERNMENT
RESPONSES 11
Public concern about aviation’s impact on climate European aviation taxes
change is transforming into a response from several
government institutions. In many parts of the world,
aviation has historically enjoyed a lower taxation
compared to other industries. In Europe, for example,
international airline tickets, aircraft fuel, and aircraft
purchases are often exempt from taxes such as VAT.

Considering the EU’s normal tax rate for aviation

kerosene is €330 per thousand litres, the aviation fuel
tax exemption alone results in considerable savings
for airlines each year. The map on the right displays
aviation taxes by country, with many countries taxing
only domestic flights or no flights at all.

330EUR
tax rate for aviation kerosene
per thousand litres No aviation tax VAT on domestic flights only Ticket tax No data

12
This special treatment may be starting to change. Germany6
and France7 both announced last year an increase in their
ticket tax. And while taxing fuel on international flights is
difficult to coordinate between countries, it is not impossible.
As the Financial Times reported in 2019, the EU Commission
found that a tax on intra-EU flights could cut carbon emissions
by 11% while having a negligible impact on GDP and jobs8.
This would, however, have a major impact on airlines, with
fuel already being one of their largest costs.
In parallel, several countries and groups of countries are
developing their own mechanisms for addressing the climate
issue. Emissions trading schemes, such as the EU ETS, are being
established around the world, and China has unveiled plans for
their own trading scheme. Given aviation’s international nature,
differing objectives among nations could create a patchwork of
policies that distort the market and harm competition.
Were the EU to impose a fuel tax on intra-EU flights, for example,
a passenger flying from Beijing to Amsterdam might feel the
impact of the tax on their second leg if they connect through
Helsinki but would not have the fuel on their flight taxed if they
connected through Dubai. Clearly, there are benefits for having
a single global standard throughout the industry.
With the COVID-19 pandemic, several rescue packages for the
airline industry have come with environmental strings attached.
Bailout plans in France, for example, may see large cuts to the
domestic air network, particularly where competing rail options
exist. With aviation emissions already at incredibly low levels,
many governments see opportunity to rebuild the industry with
a smaller carbon footprint.
Several countries are developing their
own mechanisms for addressing the
CLIMATE ISSUE
13
THE AVIATION
INDUSTRY’S PLAN 14
Environmental regulatory concerns are not new to the aviation
industry; in fact, as far back as 2011, ICAO and IATA modelled
that a worst-case scenario of patchwork climate policies could
cost the industry up to 10% of revenue per year.9 Preferring a
single global mechanism, the industry established the Carbon
Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)
in 2016. CORSIA targets industry-wide carbon-neutral growth
by 202010 with a reduction to 50% of carbon emission from
2005 levels by 2050.
Although the pilot and first phase of the program are
voluntary (beginning in 2021 and 2024, respectively), 88 states
representing over 77% of aviation activity have volunteered
to participate from the outset as of June 2020.11 CORSIA only
applies to international traffic (about 65% of global capacity),
with domestic regulations handled by individual states.
50% reduction of carbon emission
from 2005 levels by 2050
IATA’s strategy for achieving carbon neutral growth includes
factors such as improved infrastructure, more efficient
operations, and new aircraft technology. However, even
with these additional measures, the industry recognises that
a substantial gap will remain. CORSIA fills this gap with a
global market-based measure which encourages the use of
sustainable aviation fuels or the purchase of carbon offsets.
In March, ICAO agreed on six carbon-offset programmes
that are eligible for use during the CORSIA pilot phase. Even
before these guidelines were announced, several airlines had
proactively invested in offset programmes. SAS for example
has been offsetting the flights of minors since April 201812.
15
Easyjet has started their own offsetting
programme which will offset each
passengers’ flights by planting trees or
preventing deforestation.13 And jetBlue
became the first US carrier to announce
IATA Technology Roadmap
Technologies to achieve CORSIA objectives
No Action

plans for a carbon offset programme for CO 2 emissions

domestic flights, starting in July 2020.14 indexed to 2005

While offsetting can be effective in the

Carbon-Neutral
near-term, the goal of the market-based Growth
measures should be to transition airlines
to more sustainable fuel sources. IATA’s -50% by 2050
technology roadmap recognises this
need and lists “biofuels and additional 1. improve fleet 2. cap net emissions 3. by 2050, net aviation
new-generation technology” as a fuel efficient by
1.5% per year from
from 2020 through
carbon neutral growth
carbon emissions will
be half what they were
key enabler for meeting the emission now until 2020 in 2005.

reduction requirements. 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Known technology, operations Economic measures

and infrastructure measures
Net emissions trajectory
Biofuels and additional
new-generation technologies ’No actions‘ trajectory

16
THE SEARCH
FOR SUSTAINABLE
ALTERNATIVES 17
 1 kg
While some modes of transportation can be replaced with more
sustainable alternatives (such as petrol cars to electric), alternatives
in the aviation industry can be harder to come by. Compared to
other types of transportation, airplanes are highly sensitive to weight. jet fuel has the
Not only does it require more energy to get a heavier plane in the air, same energy as
the extra lift required during cruise creates additional drag; hence,
heavier aircraft require more fuel (and additional fuel to carry the
weight of that fuel).

Whereas cars can use greener technology such as batteries or fuel

cells, these technologies are less available to aircraft due to their
higher weight. As the chart below shows, getting the same energy
from one kilogram of jet fuel would require nearly 50 kg of latest
generation lithium-ion batteries. For the near-term, this limits electric
aircraft to smaller airplanes on shorter, regional routes. For larger
aircraft – particularly those covered on international flights under kg
CORSIA – this alternative is not yet feasible. of lithium-ion
batteries

18
 15
million litres of
aviation biofuel
Sustainable aviation fuels represent the best near-term
solution for the aviation industry. Unlike traditional fuels,
were produced
sustainable fuels are made from renewable materials rather in 2018
than petroleum. These fuels can be broadly classified into
two categories: biofuels and e-fuels.

Biofuels are currently the most visible sustainable aviation

fuel. These fuels are derived from living material, such
as crops or algae. The most mature of these is HEFA-SPK,
which is derived from waste oils and animal fats and
is technologically mature enough to be blended with
conventional jet fuel.15 One of the biggest challenges with
this technology is scale. Crops, for example, can compete
with food supplies and require large amounts of land and
water resources. As only 15 million litres of aviation bio-fuel
were produced in 2018 (or less than 0.01% of industry fuel
burn),16 a scalable solution is urgently needed to address
this problem.

19
E-FUELS COULD
BE PART OF THE
ANSWER 20
E-fuels are less known in the industry but show enormous How e-fuels work
potential as a sustainable alternative. Unlike biofuels,
e-fuels use electricity to transform raw carbon dioxide
and hydrogen into fuel. If the electricity and raw materials
come from a renewable energy source, the fuel generated
is completely carbon neutral. Various types of e-fuels CO2 is emitted CO2 is captured
from aircraft from the air
differ by their source of carbon dioxide, such as biomass
or industrial waste.

One of the cleanest and most scalable types of e-fuel

is “e-fuel from air”, generated using carbon dioxide
captured directly from the atmosphere. Although the
e-fuel is still burned by the airplane, the carbon dioxide Powered by
renewable
that this emits is captured from the air and can be energy
transformed back into e-fuel. Accenture has recently
partnered with Climeworks, a start-up with the
technology to efficiently capture CO2 from the air,
to help scale-up this technology.
E-fuels are H2 is produced
created from from water
CO2 and H2

21
E-fuel from air has several characteristics that make Sustainable energy costs
it particularly promising for aviation. Unlike biofuels 2018 USD/kWh
from crops or algae, e-fuels require a small footprint
0.60
and can be generated anywhere a renewable energy
source is present. It does not compete with food
sources and has minimal requirements on other
0.45
resources. E-fuels readily fit into the existing jet
fuel supply chain, using the same refining and 0.37
transportation processes. They can also be used 0.34

without modifications to aircraft engines. This 0.30

allows airlines to more easily integrate this type

of fuel into their operations.
0.15 0.16
0.19
0.13
In addition to being carbon neutral, e-fuels may 0.08
offer further benefits over other types of fuel. As they 0.04 0.05
0.09 0.06

are created from purer raw materials than traditional 0.00

fuels or even other types of biofuels, recent research 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018
suggests that e-fuels form fewer contrails than other Hydroelectric Solar Concentrated Offshore Onshore
types of fuels. This could significantly reduce the Photovoltaic Solar Wind Wind

warming effects of contrails and make e-fuels a much

Weighted Average 5th to 95th Percentile
more efficient way for reducing aviation’s overall
impact on the climate. Source: International Renewable Energy Agency

22
Accessing cost-effective renewable energy is perhaps Global sustainable energy production
the largest challenge for scaling e-fuel from air. In the TWh
past decade, however, the global supply of renewable
energy has increased dramatically while the price 7,000

has decreased significantly. As renewable technology

continues to scale, we expect the price to continue 6,000
to fall, thereby making e-fuels more competitive. Still,
e-fuels today remain more expensive than traditional 5.000
fuels, and their success depends upon the investment
and scale of the technology. 4,000

3,000

2,000

E-FUELS
1,000

READILY FIT
0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2018

Solar Wind Geo, Biomass, Other Hydro

into the existing jet fuel supply chain

23
NO SINGLE
SILVER-BULLET 24
Scale is an important consideration for sustainable Industry fuel consumption
alternatives given the sheer size of the problem.
The chart to the right shows a forecast for industry 600
fuel consumption in billions of litres based on forecast
aircraft deliveries and retirements. Last year, the 500
industry consumed nearly a billion litres of fuel
each day with about 650 million litres attributed
400
to international aviation. Despite the increased
fuel efficiency of new aircraft, the scale of aircraft
production and traffic growth over the next 20 years 300

results in a sizable increase in fuel consumption. CORSIA

By 2040, Accenture forecasts aviation’s fuel 200 Domestic

100 billion litres
required by 2040
consumption to increase to nearly 1.4 billion litres
per day. International
100
50% of 2005 levels from 2050

Fuel consumption 0

1.4
to increase to nearly 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion
litres
per day

25
Accenture projects that the aviation industry will need to
eliminate or offset 100 billion litres in 2040 just to meet
the carbon-neutral growth objectives of CORSIA, with much
more required to reduce to 2005 levels. To put that number
in perspective, the overall amount of carbon offsets bought
and sold on the global voluntary markets in 2018 would have
offset only about 39 billion litres of jet fuel. Aviation will clearly
have a large impact on demand, though it is not yet clear what
impact CORSIA may have on offset prices.

Decarbonising the aviation industry

Advantages Barriers Best for…

Electric Aircraft • Carbon neutral if powered from • Limited range and capacity due to Shorter, thinner routes currently
Aircraft powered by batteries renewable sources battery weight served by small regional aircraft
charged from renewable • No contrails or high-altitude • Long aircraft development
sources emissions timescales
Biofuels • Low carbon footprint • Difficulty in scaling due to limited Locations with access to a sustainable
Fuels derived from • Most commercially mature feedstock source of biomass feedstock
sustainable sustainable aviation fuel • Some biomass sources may
sources of living matter compete with food supply resources
Air Capture E-Fuels • Carbon neutral if powered from • High cost per litre of fuel due to Locations with access to inexpensive
Fuels derived from renewable sources limited scale renewable energy sources
renewable electricity and • Highly scalable with little resource • Few companies with the necessary
CO2 sequestered from the air consumption technology
Carbon Offsets • No changes required to existing • Difficulty in transparency and When all other options have been
Investment in a programme aircraft or infrastructure measurability of impact exhausted
designed to reduce or • Relatively inexpensive compared • May be seen as a “license to pollute”
capture emissions to other options

26
Biofuels may also struggle to keep pace with demand. The
International Energy Agency’s (IEA) sustainable development
scenario expects 37 billion litres of biofuel by 2030 and
75 billion litres by 2040. Even meeting these goals may be
challenging. In other industries, biofuel production has already
fallen short of the IEA sustainable development scenario. The
aviation sector must also compete with biodiesel for ground
vehicles, and competition of biomass feedstocks might drive
prices even higher.

E-fuels can provide an additional sustainable alternative

to help fill the gap created by CORSIA. While their price is
currently higher than traditional fuels (due to limited scale
and the novelty of the required technology), it is worth
remembering that they are competing with an oil industry
that has had over a hundred years to scale and optimise
efficiency. For e-fuels to become competitive, the industry

75
needs to invest now to secure a sustainable supply for
the future. To this end, Accenture is working to establish
a consortium of e-fuel producers and consumers that
can drive the technology and investment in production billion litres of
capacity forward. biofuel by 2040

27
ESTABLISHING
AN E-FUEL
CONSORTIUM 28
Accenture predicts that, with the right investment, Cost of a litre of fuel
e-fuels can provide 2 – 5% of the global aviation fuel Traditional versus carbon-neutral comparison
supply by 2030 and 20 – 40% by 2050. Creating this
$4
scale requires significant investment. At the time of
writing, there are three companies with the technology
to create air capture e-fuel. Two of them are already
$3
closely aligned with large oil companies. The remaining
company, Climeworks, wants to align themselves closer
with the airline industry, and Accenture is helping them
$2
to make this a reality.

1.33
Our vision is to establish a consortium between e-fuel 1.10
$1
suppliers and airlines who consume e-fuels, advised by 0.89
0.73
a range of other stakeholders involved in aviation, from 0.50
airports to manufacturers. Not only will the consortium
$0
give members a voice in shaping this new industry, it
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
will also provide secure access to a supply of
0.5M 10M 50M 100M
alternative fuel. By scaling up the technology, we are
litres per day litres per day litres per day litres per day
targeting market parity with traditional fuels around
2030.
Additional Taxes Carbon Offsets Rising fuel price

Air Capture E-Fuel

29
Over the same time period we expect the price of
traditional jet fuel to increase due to higher fuel prices,
the cost of offsets required through CORSIA, and
the increase in taxes on aviation worldwide. And the
climate benefits from having a carbon neutral fuel that
in addition reduces contrails and their impact on global
warming are clear to anyone from within the industry
and beyond we have talked to so far.

So, the only question is:

WILL THE AIRLINE

INDUSTRY JOIN US TO
MAKE THIS TRANSITION
OF UNPRECEDENTED
MAGNITUDE A REALITY?
30
Get involved today
The targets set out by CORSIA are ambitious Dr. Jesko Neuenburg
and their achievement challenging but jesko.neuenburg@seaburyconsulting.com
necessary. To our knowledge, no other industry Seabury Consulting, part of Accenture
sector of this size has come together to self-
impose a goal of this scale. At times, the sheer
Collin Heller
scale of the climate challenge in aviation can collin.m.heller@seaburyconsulting.com
seem overwhelming – billions of litres of fuel Seabury Consulting, part of Accenture
and millions of tonnes of carbon are a difficult
proposition to change. If we are to make any
significant progress towards this over the Stephane Pique
next decade, it can only come through the stephane.pique@accenture.com
Accenture
cooperation of many industry stakeholders.
If you are involved in any part of the aviation
industry and would like to get involved, please
contact us to learn more.

31
Appendix
IATA. Climate Change. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/climate-change/
1 10 
The baseline for carbon-neutral growth was originally defined as the average of 2019 and 2020
emissions levels. Due to COVID-19, the baseline for carbon-neutral growth has been redefined to only
UK CAA. Information on aviation’s environmental impact. https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/
2
include 2019 emissions levels.
CAP1524EnvironmentalInformation29032017.pdf
Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders. Who Volunteers for CORSIA? https://aviationbenefits.org/
11 

Grew, TU Delft. Climate Impact of Aviation CO2 and non-CO2 effects and examples for mitigation
3
environmental-efficiency/climate-action/offsetting-emissions-corsia/corsia/who-volunteers-for-
options. https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/Climate%20impact%20of%20 corsia/
aviation%20CO2%20and%20non-CO2%20effects_Volker%20Grewe.pdf
SAS. Sustainability Report FY18. https://www.sasgroup.net/files/en/wp-content/uploads/
12 

Airlines for America. Air Travelers Survey. https://www.airlines.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/A4A-

4
sites/2/2019/01/sas-group-sustainability-report-2017-2018-english.pdf
AirTravelSurvey-20Feb2018-FINAL.pdf
easyJet. Climate Change, Carbon Emissions and Carbon Offsetting. https://corporate.easyjet.com/
13 

US BTS. Household, Individual and Vehicle Characteristics. https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/

5
corporate-responsibility/environment/climate-change-carbon-emissions-and-carbon-offsetting
highlights_of_the_2001_national_household_travel_survey/section_01
Businesswire. JetBlue Prepares its Business for a New Climate Reality. https://www.businesswire.com/
14 

Skift. Germany Is 6 Months Away From Climate Tax on Air Travel. https://skift.com/2019/10/15/germany-
6
news/home/20200106005549/en/JetBlue-Prepares-Business-New-Climate-Reality
is-6-months-away-from-climate-tax-on-air-travel/
IEA. Are aviation biofuels ready for takeoff? https://www.iea.org/commentaries/are-aviation-biofuels-
15 

Reuters. France to tax flights from its airports, airline shares fall. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-
7
ready-for-take-off
france-airlines-tax/france-to-tax-flights-from-its-airports-airline-shares-fall-idUSKCN1U412B
IEA. Transport Biofuels. https://www.iea.org/reports/transport-biofuels
16 

Financial Times. Leaked EU report boosts case for jet fuel tax. https://www.ft.com/content/1ce24798-
8

733b-11e9-bbfb-5c68069fbd15

Anjaparidze. The Extraordinary Climate Agreement on International Aviation: An Airline Industry

9

Perspective. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/191021-anjaparidze-
viewpoint.pdf

32
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