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„ ½k&Sm;xuf w½kwf&JYpdefac:rIu ydkBuD;w,fvdkh cifAsm;ajymcJU Thomas L. Friedman;

The World Is Flat

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Plastic Rainbow Book Publication
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Ref; Newsweek, 29 sept 2008. ausmufwHwm;NrdKYe,f? &efukefNrdKY / zkef; 095193106 ^ 384199

10 11
 Opinion
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What Made Me a Crusader By Mikhail Gorbachev
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20 21
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jzpfNyDqdkvQif? 'Dowif;ukd rD'D,mrSm Mum;&onf/ yHkawGukd jrifawGU&onf/
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uRefawmfhtzdkY &efyHkaiG&&Sda&;twGufom r[kwfyg/ vlxktMum; u½kPm Lee Hsiam Loong
w&m;ysUH ESaYH pvsu?f vlawG\,HMk unfcsuu f dk ajymif;vJapcsio f nf/ aumif;
wmawGujdk yKvyk í f urÇmBu;D ukd jyefíaus;Zl;qyf&mwGi?f uReaf wmf\emrnfudk Globalization onf pufrIvkyfief;rsm;tjyif? todynmqkdif&m
toH;k cscsiyf gonf/ ,cktcsed w f iG f uReaf wmft h wGuaf wmh þudpx ö uf ykí d vkyif ef;&yfrsm;odv Yk nf; xk;d azmuf0ifa&mufvsu&f o dS nf/ wk;d wuf
ta&;BuD;aomt&m r&Sdawmhyg/ vmonfh enf;ynmtopfrsm;aMumif?h pifumylEidk if t H aeESihf vkyf
ief;wkid ;f wGif todynmok;H aqmif&u G rf uI kd jrK§ yEf NHS y;D ? ,if;udk vlEiS hf
armifomarm tzGt YJ pnf;rsm;udk uGe&f ufcsw d q
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22 23
 rS Ekid if t H wGi;f jyef,v l monfph epf (outsourcing) ok;H onft h jyif? jzpfonf/
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udk wm0ef,lvkyfaqmifvsuf &Sdonf/ rsm;xuf? w½kwEf idk if &H w dS uúov kd rf sm;wGif rSwyf w Hk ifxm;onfh wDxiG rf rI sm;u
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ynmqkid &f m pD;yGm;a&;vkyif ef;rsm;wGi?f t&Sed t f [kew f ;dk jri§ ahf qmif uwfrsm; pDppfay;jcif;? avaMumif;vkid ;f BuKd wifvufrw S f a&mif;csay;onfh
&Gufvsuf&SdMuonf/ puFmylEkdifiHtaeESifh ,if;vkyfief;rsm;wGif vkyif ef;rsm;omru aq;½krH sm;&Sad &m*g&SmazGa&;pufrsm;? scan rsm; zwf½jI cif;
aumif;pGmvky&f mS ; &Sio f efEidk rf nfjzpfonf/ tb,fah Mumifq h adk omf vkyif ef;ESihf w&m;Oya'xk;H rsm;udk okawoejyKay;onfh vkyif ef;rsm;udv k nf;
puFmylEidk if t H aejzifh tawG;tac:tMuÓ H Pfopfrsm;udk vufcH vkyaf qmifay;vsu&f o dS nf/ vuf&u dS rÇmBu;D \tajctaewGif &Sio f efEidk &f ef?
onfh tawGYtMuHKus,fjyefYNyD; vlrsKd;rcGJ? EkdifiHrcGJonfhpdwf"mwf EkdifiHrsm;taejzifh rdrdwdkYtxl;a&G;cs,fonfh tvkyform;rsm;udkomru?
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vlawmfval umif;? t&nftaoG;t& ajrm§ ufpm;avh&o dS nfh vlrsK;d avhusiahf y;xm;&rnfjzpfonf/ Ekid if rH sm;taejzifh Oya'vku d ef mjcif;? rlyidk f
pkEH iS zhf pYJG nf;xm;onfh Ekid if w H pfcjk zpfjcif;aMumifjh zpfonf/ t*Fvyd f cGifhwkdYudk av;pm;usifhokH;jcif;ESifh pGefYpm;rIudkvnf; tm;ay;&rnf/ tod
pum;ajymonfh EkdifiHjzpfaomfvnf;? tjcm;bmompum;rsm; ynmudk aESmifh,Sufrnfh? wm;qD;rnfhwif;usyfonfh EkdifiHa&;0g'wdkYaMumifh?
jzpfonfh w½kw?f rav;? tif'edk ;D &Sm;ESihf tjcm;bmompum;rsm; wm;qD;jcif;wku Yd kd a&Smif&mS ;vsuf twm;tqD;r&S?d aESmifah ES;rI r&So d nfh tod
vnf; ajymMuonf/ Oa&my? tar&duefEiS hf tm&S\,Ofaus;rIwYdk ynmzvS,fa&;twGuf *½kpkdufMu&rnf/ wDxGifqef;opfrIrsm; jyKvkyf&ef
udv k nf; &if;ES;D rI&NdS y;D ? todynmESihf toufarG;0rf;ausmif; jyKvm tm;ay;&rnf/
onfrSm umvtwefMumjrifhvmonfhtjyif ukefoG,frI? vSnfh pifumylEidk if t H aejzifv h nf; todynmudk pDrpH pk nf;onfh vkyif ef;rS
vnfa&mif;csrEI iS hf tjcm;olrsm;rSwpfqifh twwfynmrsm; &,lchJ wpfqifh? rdrd\todynmudk zefwD;,l&ef tav;xm;vkyfaqmifMu&rnf
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tm&SEidk if Hrsm;wGif obm0tavsmuf tm;omcsuv f nf; &So d nf/ tm; avhusifhay;jcif;ESifh? tvkyfvkyfEkdifrnfh pGrf;tm;wnfaqmuf&efwkdYt
,Ofaus;rI t& ynmoif,lrIudk tav;xm;Muonf/ ynmudk wGuf? vdktyfvmrnfh ueOD;aiGudk xkwfay;&rnf/ &nf&G,fxm;onfrSm
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roifrae& owfrw S cf suwf pfct k aejzifh jrifMuonf/ Ekid if w H um zGHYNzdK;wkd;wufrItwGuf BudK;pm;tm;xkwfrIrsm;udk t&Sdeft[kefjr§ifhwifay;
ESifh ,SOfNydKif&rnfqkdvQif tm&Swkduf\ ocsFmESifhodyÜHqkdif&m &efjzpfonf/ puFmylEidk if \ H jynfopYl mMunfw h u dk rf sm;onf? jynforl sm;twGuf
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½k&mS ;ESihf ta&SUOa&myEkid if rH sm;xuf nHrh nfr[kwo f nfrmS aocsm vsu&f o dS nf/ tok;H jyKow l t Ydk aejzif?h tifwmeufrw S pfqifh rdrw d vYdk t kd yfonfh
onf/ pmtky?f AD', D dk (okrYd [kw)f pD'u D kd BuKd rmS ,lv&Ykd Ekid Nf y;D avhvmzwf½NI y;D onft h cg?
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aps;aygaygtvkyo f rm;xkBu;D wpfcw k nf;aMumifh ajymif;vJjcif; ypönf;wkdif;wGif a&'D,kdvdIif;vsm;xyf wyfqifxm;onfhykdifqkdifrIqkdif&m
r[kwfaMumif;? ¤if;EkdifiHwkdY\ wkd;wufvmonfh tqifhjrifh vm taxmuftxm;jyonfh chip wyfqifxm;onft h wGu?f tcsed rf a&G;&SmazG
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24 25
 onft h wGuf todynm? owif;tcsut f vufEiS hf wpfoufwm
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od&onf/
puFmylwuúov kd rf sm;uvnf; tcsed rf a&G;? twm;tqD;r&Sd
qufoG,fEkdifaMumif; tqifhjrifhonfh ynma&;pepfudk usifhokH;
xm;aMumif; pufrq I idk &f mausmif;rsm;uvnf; vufawGu Y sonfh
ausmif;oif½;dk nTe;f wrf;udk uRr;f usio f nfyh nm&Siw f uYdk oifay;
onfhtjyif? enf;ynmqkdif&m ausmif;wkdY\ ynma&;pepfonf
vnf;? vufawGYusonfh pufrIenf;ynm&yfrsm;udk ydkYcsvsuf&Sd
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&Sdonf/ puFmylEkdifiHtaeESifhvnf; tvkyform;xkBuD;\ uRrf;
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onf/ touft&G,fBuD;&ifhvmonfh tvkyform;rsm;udkvnf;
wk;d jri§ ahf eonft h odynmrsm;ESihf &if;ES;D atmif aqmif&u G af y;vsuf NyD;cJhonfh ESpf 20twGif;? Knowledge ac: todynm
&SdonfhtwGuf? tvkyfqufvkyfEkdifaeaMumif; awGY&Sd&onf/ qkod nfh pum;vk;H onf? ta&;ygonfph um;vk;H wpfv;Hk jzpfvmcJh
pifumylEidk if w H iG f ÓPf&nfxufjruf&eftwGuf vlwidk ;f taeESihf onf/ vkyfief;rsm;twGuf todynmqkdif&mrlykdifcGifhonf ydkrdk
rdrw d v Ydk ufEpS zf ufpvk;H udk pOf;pm;ajrmfjrif&o dS nfh vufrsm;jzpfae ta&;ygvmonfESifhtrQ? PC wpfu, kd af &ok;H uGeyf sLwm ok;H pGrJ I
ap&ef aqmif&u G vf su&f o dS nf/ vnf; rsm;jym;vmonf/ 0efxrf;rsm;onf todynm&Sifrsm; jzpf
urÇmay:&SdEkdifiHrsm;taeESifh globalization aMumifh rdrd vmNy;D ? ukrP Ü rD sm;uvnf; todynmpDrcH efcY rJG u I kd a&SU½Ivsuf tod
wk\ Yd o,HZmwt&if;tjrpfrsm;udk a&TUajymif;jcif;? pD;yGm;a&; OD; ynmuGe&f ufrsm;rSwpfqif?h ta&;Bu;D onfh owif;tcsut f vuf
wnfrsm;udk jyKjyifay;jcif;ESihf vlt Y zGt
YJ pnf;rsm;udk acwfEiS hf o[ rsm;ud?k tcsut f vuf pkpnf;onfah e&mrsm;(Knowledge base)
Zmwjzpf&eftwGuf nd§ay;jcif;wkdYjzifh tem*wftwGuf jyifqif wGif odrf;qnf;vmMuonf/
vsu&f o dS nf/ puFmyljynfow l pf&yfv;Hk taeESihf 'Dvyk f aqmifcsuf ,if;&v'fonf? vkyfief;rsm;udk tBuD;tus,fajymif;vJ
udk vufcMH uNy;D ? urÇmt h odynmqkid &f muGe&f ufwiG f ta&;ygrnfh apcJoh nfh Knowledge economy rsm;udk taxmuftuljyKNyD;?
ae&mwGif vIyf&Sm;&eftwGuf jyifqif vsuf&Sdae onf/ urÇmtESaYH &SUwef;a&mufvmonfh pD;yGm;a&;wk;d wufNy;D Ekid if rH sm;udk
taxmuftuljyKcJhonf/ Knowledge economy wnfaqmuf
Z xGef;vif; vmonfh ]todynm}onf? owif;tcsut f vufukd tajccHonfh
vkyif ef;qkid &f m ÓPf&nfÓPfaoG; xufjrufonfh todynmrsm;
Ref; Lee Hsien Loong;The Singapore Way; Newsweek.
jzpfonf/ todynm[lonf eufeJodrfarGYygonf/ pDrHcefYcGJa&;
yg&*l Tom Davenport tajymt& ]todynm[lonf owif;
tcsut f vufukd tawGt Y MuKH qufpyfpOf;pm;&rnfh taMumif;
t&m? t"dymÜ ,faumufEw I cf suEf iS hf qifjcifo;Hk oyfjcif;wku Yd kd aygif;
26 27
]todynm[lonf owif;tcsuftvufudk pdw0f ifpm;p&m aumif;onft h csurf mS ? software u cefrY eS ;f ay;csuf
rSm;cJah omf? pdwu f ;l tBut H pnfopfrsm; &&SEd idk af o;onf/ oif\ h vdt k yfcsuu f kd
tawGYtMuHKESifh qufpyfpOf;pm;&rnfU taMumif;t&m? wGucf suNf y;D ? oifvyk af qmifaeonft h vky\ f vdt k yfcsuu f ?kd tcsed rf D ay;pGr;f
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aygif;pyfxm;jcif;jzpfonf} oavmuf atmifjrifr&I aMumif;od&onf/ tawG;tjrif&o dS nfh reasoning
engines rsm;onf? oif\ idea rsm;udk omreftodEi S hf awG;ac:Ekid pf rG ;f ESihf EdiI ;f
pyfxm;jcif;jzpfonf} owif;tcsut f vufrS &&So d nft h odynmonf NyKd if ,SOaf y;Ekid o f nfth jyif? oift h ,ltqrsm; csKUd ,Gi;f rI&-dS r&SEd iS hf oift h awG;t
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uReaf wmfwt Ydk rsm;pkonf owif;tcsut f vufukd vGwv f yfpmG &,l &Gufay;oGm;rnfjzpfonf/
Ekid o
f nfh acwfwiG af exkid Mf uonft h wGu?f PCESit hf ifwmeufukd ok;H pGjJ cif;jzifh ,if;enf;ynmrsm;onf consilience udk tm;ay;onf/ rwlno D nfh
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28 29
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30 31
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32 33
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om;orD;awGqo D m vufqifu Y rf;Muygw,f/ 25% aomtkypf rk mS aoao ae&mwdik ;f rSm pdeaf c:rIawGygyJ? awG;aMumufaevdv Yk nf; rjzpfyg/
csmcsm pepfwus pDru H ed ;f csxm;wJv Y aJT jymif;rIrsKd ; rawG&Y yg/ (1) pD;yGm;a&;pdeaf c:rI (Economical challenge)
Edik if w
H um aumfyakd &;½Si;f Bu;D awGrmS awmY pDrcH efcY rJG I ‘Management’ (2) enf;ynmpdeaf c:rI (Technological challenge)
qdwk mud?k aqGrsKd ;? om;orD;awGeYJ cGjJ cm;xm;ygw,f/ Shareholder qdw k YJ (3) Edik if aH &;wnfNird rf I (Political stability)
&S,, f m½Siu f oufouf? pDrcH efcY o JG u
l oufoufyg? a&maxG;rIr&Sw d tYJ wGuf (4) tpd;k &yg0ifrI (Government intervention)
atmifjrifrI yd&k ygw,f/ wwd,Edik if aH wG &ifu h suv f mwJt Y cgrSm tJ't D pOf (5) Oya'taxmuftyHY (Legal infrastructure)
tvmudk vufcaH qmif&u G o f ifMh uygw,f/ (6) b@ma&;r@dKif (Financial infrastructure)

ysupf ;D apwmawG acgi;f aqmifu@

ynmenf;&if ysupf ;D rIjrefygw,f? csr;f omzd?Yk atmifjrifzYkd BuKd ;pm;&wm tJ'rD mS acgif;aqmifu@qdw k YJ (Leadership Role)u ta&;Bu;D vm
xuf xde;f odr;f Edik zf u
Ykd ydNk y;D cufcyJ gw,f? 'gvnf; pdeaf c:rIwpf&yf jzpfyg ygw,f/ tzGt YJ pnf;wpfcu k Okd ;D aqmifwYJ acgif;aqmifu b,favmuf pHcsed rf D
w,f/ tMurf;zsi;f Munf&Y if ... ovJ? b,fvkd t&nftcsi;f awG½o dS vJqw kd m tqH;k tjzwfwpfck jzpfygw,f/
(1) tvkyrf cYJ sr;f omrI (Wealth without work) acgif;aqmifn&hH if tzGt YJ pnf;nHw Y wfygw,f? acgif;aqmif awmf&ifvnf;
(2) ud,k u f sirYf pYJ nf;pdrf (Pleasure without conscience) tzGt YJ pnf;u xufjrufwwfygw,f/ t&ifwek ;f u acgif;aqmifqw kd mudk
(3) ud,k u f sirYf yYJ nm (Knowledge without character) oD;jcm;vlwef;pm;wpf&yftaeeJY t,ltq&Scd &YJ mu? rsuaf rSmufacwfrmS (as
(4) vlom;rqefoyd HÜ (Science without huminity) member) tzG0 YJ ifwpfO;D taeeJyY J oabmxm;ygawmhw,f/ xl;cRe?f xuf
(5) rl0g'rJEY ikd if aH &; (Politics without principle) jruf? wm0ef,El ikd v f Ykd acgif;aqmifae&m ay;xm;wmxuf rydak wmhygbl;/
wdk;wufoGm;wJYEdkifiHawGudk avYvmvdkufawmY pGefYOD;wDxGif aqmif&GufrI acgif;aqmif[m tzGt YJ pnf;&JU(servant)taptyg;yJ jzpfygw,f? ]apwpfv;kH }
b,favmufaumif;MuovJqw kd m ñTe;f ude;f wpfcv k kd awGU&ygw,f/ t&G,f ydik ?f ud,k v
f yk cf si&f mvkyv f Ykd r&awmYyg/
a&mufvil ,fawG b,favmuf pGeOYf ;D wDxiG pf w d ef YJ vkyMf uovJq&kd if …
36 37
 pDrcH efch rJG eI u
hJ mG wm uGmjcm;oGm;wJaY cwf jzpfygw,f/
pDrcH efcY rJG I (Management) eJY OD;aqmifjcif; (Leadership) uGmwm
t"dutcsuw f pfcsuyf J ½Syd gw,f/ pDrcH efcY rJG u
I ‘Who do things right’ ,HMk unfreI ahJ cgi;f aqmif
qdw
k YJ OD;aqmifocl say;wJt Y vkyaf wGukd awmfwnfhreS u f efatmif vkyaf y;&wm ,HMk unfr&I ½Sjd cif;eJY acgif;aqmif jzpfvm&wmyg/ ,HMk unfru I kd tv
jzpfNy;D acgif;aqmifuawmY ‘Who do right things’ qdw k YJ ]rSew
f t
hJ vky}f udk um;r&yg/ wpfcPcsi;f vnf; r&Edik yf g/ ,HMk unfrt I wGuf wnfaqmuf,l
a&G;cs,af y;jcif;yJ jzpfygw,f/ tvkyrf eS ?f vkyo f ifw
Y mudk ra&G;cs,Ef ikd &f if &ygw,f/ tcsed t f wdik ;f twmwpfck ay;qyf&ygw,f/
acgif;aqmif r[kwyf gbl;/ (1) yGiv Yf if;rI (Practice openees)
(2) rQwrI (Promote fairness)
vkyyf ikd cf iG aUf y;tyf (3) cHpm;rI (Express feeling)
tvkyaf o;&if jyóemr½Sv d aS yr,fY vkyif ef;Bu;D vm&if acgif;aqmif (4) ,HMk unfrI (Keep confidence)
awGu ae&mwum ryg0ifEikd af wmYyg/ wpfaeY nDrQpmG ydik q f ikd Mf uwJY 24 (5) wpforwfjzpfrI (Be consistant)
em&Dukd tusKd ;&Spd mG toH;k csMu&wmrdYk acgif;aqmifu olUtvkyyf J olvyk f (6) uwdpum;wnf (Keep promise)
oifYygw,f/ rl0g'csrSwfwJYtvkyf? pDrHudef;a&;qGJwJYtvkyf pwmrsKd;yg/ (7) trSeaf jym (Tell the truth)
usew f mudk wjcm;tv,fwef;acgif;aqmif(Management)udk vkyyf ikd cf iG hf ay;& (8) t&nftaoG;jy (Show competence)
ygw,f/ Empowerment vdaYk jymygw,f? ukrP Ü aD wmfawmfrsm;rsm;rSm ref ajymwJt h wdik ;f rvky&f if ,HMk unfrrI &yg? rQwrIr&Sv
d Qiv
f nf; ,HMk unfrI
ae*smrsm;[m &mxl;awGom&Muayr,f?Y vkyyf ikd cf iG rhf &SMd ubl;vdYk pdwt f m; wnfaqmufvYkd r&yg/ acgif;aqmifrmS awmufywJY t&nftaoG;awG r&Sd
i,faeMuwm okawoersm;t& xGuaf y:vmygw,f/ tJ'g acgif;aqmif&YJ &ifvnf; ],Hyk g}vdaYk jym½Hek YJ ,HMk unfru I kd r&yg/ azmfjyygt&nftcsi;f xuf
rl0g'rSm;,Gi;f rItusK;d quf jzpfygw,f/ Edik if w
H um aumfyakd &;&Si;f awGtqifY ydo
k ifyh gw,f/ ],Hpk &m} &Sad tmifvyk Ef ikd rf S ,H&k wmjzpfygw,f/ ,HMk unfc&H rIeYJ
rSm |mecsKyuf CEO(acgif;aqmif)u? tjcm;a'ouGaJ e&mawGukd tNrJ b,f acgif;aqmif[m wpfom;wnf;us&ygr,f/
rSma&mufEikd yf grvJ/ Regional CEO awGuykd J vkyyf ikd cf iG ahf y;Mu&ygw,f/
avUvmoif,l
xufjrufxad &mufacgi;f aqmif tvkyv f yk af eorQywfv;kH avYvmoif,rl u I kd &yfwefv
Y rYkd &yg? acgif;
OD;aqmifoal wmY OD;aqmifoyl gyJ? Leading vkywf ,fvYkd ac:ygw,f? aqmifawG ydvk t
kd yfygw,f? ]wwfNy?D odNy}D qdw k YJ q&mBu;D acwf ukeo f mG ;wm
tusKd ;jzpfrt I m;enf;&if omref(Leader)yJ jzpfygw,f? onfaeY aumfyakd &; tawmfMumygNy?D rMumcP tajymif;tvJawG jzpfay:aewJt Y wGuf ydv k Ykd
½Si;f Bu;D awG&YJ acgif;aqmifawG Effective Leader (xda&muf acgif;aqmif) awmif oif,rl I vdt k yfvmygao;w,f? Social Learning vdYk ajymvd&Yk yg
awG jzpfvmMuygNy?D tajccHyckH si;f rwlwm awGEY ikd yf gw,f/ w,f/ olrsm;udk ]jyefajym}aumif;zdkY ]usufrSwf}wm[m? avYvmoif,lrI
Leaders Vs Effective Leaders r[kwyf gbl;? ud,k u f ,kd wf ikd f vdu k ef musio
Yf ;kH Edik w
f hJ tqifu h kd a&mufatmif
Objectivity Perception taoG;xJ tom;xJxo d rd u I om avYvmoif,rl I trSef jzpfygw,f/
Acceptance Rejection - avYvmovdk vkyu f ikd &f if; tavYtusiYf jzpfapwm
Individual Group Performance Learning as doing — (practice)
Productivity Satisfaction - avYvmovdk tawGt
Y BuKH tjzpf a&mufvmwm
½d;k ½d;k omrefacgif;aqmifeYJ xda&mufprG ;f tm;&Sw
d chJ gif;aqmif? trsm;Bu;D Learning as experience—(meaning)

38 39
 - avYvmovdk ud,
k u
f ,
kd w
f ikd f jzpfvmwm tqifrh D acgif;aqmifwpfO;D jzpfzYkd Edik if w H um t&nftaoG;udk jznfq h nf;&rSm
Learning as becoming—(identity) jzpfygw,f/ pdwyf ikd ;f qdik &f mtajccHutp jyifqifvmMuygNy/D Asia Mindset
- avYvmovdk ydik q
f ikd v
f mwm qdw k YJ tm&Su vlawG&UJ pdwt f cHukd avYvm&if ...
Learning as belonging—(community) (1) A[dck sKyuf ikd rf t
I ay:tm½Hx k m; (Centralization)
avYvmrIuae usio
Yf ;kH rItqifY b,fvzkd NYHG zKd ;vm&w,fqw
kd YJ tajccHyjJ zpfyg (2) rdom;pkta&; OD;pm;ay; (Family Interest)
w,f? omref wjcm;vlwpfa,mufukd txifBu;D atmif ajymjyEdik ½f x kH uf (3) tcGit Yf vrf;udk OD;pm;ay; (Opportunity)
rubl;qdw
k m ay:vGiaf eygw,f/ (4) tajymif;tvJuw kd eG qYf w
k f (Change Resistance)
Edik if w
H um pdw"f mwfu qefu Y sib f uf jzpfygw,f/ tJ'D qefu Y sib
f ufjzpfwYJ
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U ,f Decentralization, Public interest, Capability rather than opportunity,
tem*wftjrif (Vision) b,favmuf&o dS vJqw kd m acgif;aqmif Change acceptance udk ajymif;vJypf&ygvdrr hf nf/
wpfO;D &JUt&nftcsi;f jzpfygw,f? reufzef? obufcgavmuf tjrifrsKd ;eJY
onfacwfrmS acgif;aqmifvyk pf m;vdYk r&awmYygbl;? wcsKd U pD;yGm;a&;acgif; ,SONf yKd iEf ikd pf rG ;f &nf
aqmif? Edik if aH &;acgif;aqmifawG[m ESpaf ygif; 50 ausmaf vmuftxdukd urÇmYEdkifiHtoD;oD;udk ],SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf;&nf} owfrSwfxm;ygw,f/
vSr;f Ny;D MunfEY ikd Mf uygw,f/ omreftqifh acgif;aqmifawGawmifrS av;? tcsutf vuf trsm;Bu;D ay: tajccHygw,f? wpfcak umif;? ESpcf ak umif;eJY
ig;ESpaf vmuf&UJ tvm;tvmudk MunfEh ikd rf S acgif;aqmiftqifY 0ifEikd ½f akH v;&Sd r&ygbl;/ ‘Global Competitiveness of Countries’ vdYk acgif;pOfwyfyg
rSm jzpfygw,f/ a0;a0;ydMk unfEY ikd jf cif;[m acgif;aqmifaumif;wpfO;D twGuf w,f/ zifvef(Finland) u xdyq f ;kH ujzpfNy;D tar&duefu 'kw, d jzpfyg
atmifEikd rf yI &kd jcif;vdv
Yk nf; ajymEdik yf gw,f/ w,f/
wpfcsed rf mS urÇmaY vmifpmpGr;f tifjyóemwpf&yf &Sv d mr,fv?Ykd vGef
cJw
h hJ ESpaf ygif; 40 ausmu f wnf;u wcsKUd aomacgif;aqmifawG? oH;k oyfcsuf EdkifiH tqifh
qGxJ m;cJw h m zwfz;l ygw,f/ tJ't D wGuf a&eHxu G Ef ikd if aH wGeYJ oHwrefa&;t&? zifvef (Finland) 1
pD;yGm;a&;t& BuKd wifaqmif½u G xf m;rIawG vkyx f m;Muygw,f/ ud, k Ehf ikd if H ,ltufpf (US) 2
tusKd ;pD;yGm;(National Interest)twGuf wcsKUd ppfa&;t& aqmif&u G rf aI wG e,fomvef (Netherland) 3
awmif awGaY e&ygw,f/ *smreD (Germany) 4
uae'g (Canada) 11
pdwx
f m;jyif *syef (Japan) 15
acwfu Globalization qdw k YJ urÇmaY &pD;aMumif;rSm tvsm;vdu k f
vduk yf g&wJah cwfyg/ ud, k q
hf u
D ,Ofaus;rI [db k ufa&mufovd?k olq Y uD avmavmq,f urÇm'Y w k ,
d pD;yGm;a&;tBu;D qH;k jzpfwYJ *syefawmifrS
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tm;vH;k ul;vl;,SuEf , G af ewJoY abm jzpfygw,f/ ud, k 0Yf yfusi;f av;xJu tvm;tvmudk qH;k jzwfMuwJt Y cgrSm? tJ'D ,SONf yKd iEf ikd rf pI rG ;f &nfu xdyqf ;kH u
]udk,fhpHEIef;}avmufeJY acgif;aqmifawG aevdkYr&awmYygbl;/ b,folawG ygvmwJY ]aywH}wpfacsmif; jzpfvmygNy?D pD;yGm;a&;udk OD;aqmifMuwJY acgif;
bmvkyw f ,f? b,facgif;aqmifawG b,favmuft&nftcsi;f ½SMd uw,f aqmifawG owdxm;oifw Y t
YJ csuf jzpfygw,f/
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40 41
 ynmxkwv
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udk avYvm&if ... EIid ;f &acwfuek Nf yD
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EdkifiH ynmxkwfvkyfrI(%)
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pifumyl 60% <u,f0wJYEdkifiHudk csrf;omw,fvdkY t,ltqwpf&yf xm;cJYzl;ygw,f/
b½lEdkif; 35% ‘Comparative Age’ vdYk ajymMuygw,f? 'gjzifU&if o,HZmwr&Sw d EhJ ikd if aH wG
rav;&Sm; 23% rcsrf;omMuawmYbl;vm;qdkwJY ar;cGef;udk ajzzdkYvdkygvdrfYr,f/ Taiwan,
zdvpfydkif 22% Singapore, Hong Kong awGukd avYvmMunfa h wmh? bmo,HZmwrSr½Sb d J
xdkif; 18% usm;Bu;D awG jzpfaeMuwm awG&Y ygw,f/ wcsKUd o,HZmw<u,f0ygw,f
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uarÇm'D;,m; 4% ynm&Siaf wG jyefvnfo;kH oyfNy;D ],SONf yKd irf t I ompD;} (Competitive
AD,uferf 3% Advantage)qdw k mud?k aemufq;kH azmfxw k v f u kd Mf uygawmYw,f? tck rsuf
jrefrm 2% arSmufacwfu ],SONf yKd iEf ikd pf rG ;f } (Competitiveness)udk tav;xm;wJah cwfukd
vmtdk 1% vHk;0a&mufoGm;ygNyD/
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wmu rav;&Sm;xuf b½lEikd ;f u omoGm;wmyJ jzpfygw,f/ t&if a&eHxu G f udk ud, k w f ikd u f ,
kd uf s rvkyaf wmYb?J olw&Ykd UJ ½S,, f mudk tjyifu 0,fNy;D upm;
Edik if aH wG ynmudk odyw f efz;kd rxm;wwfMuygbl;? aemufyikd ;f ]pGr;f &nf}tay: wmudjk rif&if? acwf&UJ a&pD;aMumif;eJY ]tvkyv f yk w f wfz}Ykd yJvw kd ,fqw kd m awGU&
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(txl;ojzifh tm&S) pD;yGm;a&;aumif;vmNy;D ? taemufEiS Nhf yKid b f uf Ref: Harmony and the Dream
By DAVID BROOKS. Newyork Times
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p&mwpfcjk zpfvmrnf/ avhvmp&mwpfct k jzpf ay:xGuvf mrnf/ By Kishore Mahbubani .Los Angeles Times

48 49
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Amartya Sen
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UNITED STATES; THE END OF PROSPERITY? BY NAILL FERGUSON

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tusKd;qufu ylaygif;BuD; jzpfvmawmhwmygyJ/ tar&duefEkdifiH&JU wJoh ul vnf; um;awG0,fxm;zkYd aiGacs;,lvYkd r&Ekid af wmhygbl;/ vkyif ef;av;
ysr;f rQtrd af ps;EIe;f [m wpfEpS f 20% xdwufNy;D rk;d aumif;cJyh gw,f/ toufqufEidk zf Ydk 0efxrf;wcsKUd avQm&h ygvdrrhf ,f/ Ekid if eH t YJ 0ef; tvkyv f ufrhJ
aemufawmh ylaygif;awG tNrv J yk af vh&o dS vkd aygufuaJG wmhwmygyJ/ awG rsm;vmzkdY arQmfvifh&ygw,f/
(S&P Case- Shiller) tdrfaps;EIef;nTef;udef;t&? NrdKUBuD; 20 rSm&SdwJh tar&duefEidk if u
H pD;yGm;a&;wkq YH idk ;f aewJh(recession)qD OD;wnfae
tdraf ps;EIe;f awG[m 2007 ckEpS f azazmf0g&DvupNy;D ? usqif;cJw h myg/ wmudk? oHo,&SdwJholawG[m t&Sdw&m;udk rsufuG,fjyKxm;wJholawGyg/
'ghjyif usqif;wmuvnf; wkd;vkdYomjrefvmygw,f/ vGefcJhwJhESpfeJY wpfESpfvkH;NcHKNyD;wGufMunfh&if trSef(real)vufvDa&mif;tm;eJY pufrIxkwf
pmvQif ZGev f rSm tdraf ps;EIe;f 16% usqif;ygw,f/ zD;epf? rD,mrDvkd ukefawG ESpfckpvkH;usqif;aeygw,f/ 5 ESpftwGif; tvkyfvufrJhEIef;xm;
NrKd UBu;D wcsKUd rSm tjrifq h ;Hk aps;EIe;f &JU ok;H ykw H pfyaHk wmifusqif;ygw,f/ [m tjrifq h ;Hk a&mufaeygNy/D 'Dp;D yGm;a&;wkq YH idk ;f rI[m 2001 ckEpS w
f ek ;f uvdk
pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D jzpfNy;D uwnf;u tar&dueftrd Nf caH jraps;uGu[ f m nifnifomomeJaY &wkyd J jzpfrvm;/ 'grSr[kwf 1930 ausmEf pS rf sm;u urÇmBu;D
'Dvt kd jzpfrsK;d rBuKaH wGzY ;l ygbl;/ 'Da0'emu tqk;H rowfao;ygbl;/ cHpm;cJh&wmrsKd;udk? aemufay:ykHpHopfeJY cHpm;&rnfh pD;yGm;a&;uyfBuD; 2.0
tdraf ygifxm;wJh tar&dueftrd yf idk &f iS f 13%[m? tdrv f ufvw G f qk;H ½I;H jzpfvmrvm;qkdwmyJ ar;cGef;xkwfp&m &Sdygawmhw,f/
&rnfu h ed ;f qku d rf ,fvYdk (Credit Suisse) u? a[mude;f xkwyf gw,f/
bPfeb YJ @ma&;toif;tzGaYJ wGu ydv k aYkd wmifq;dk wJh tae orkdif;qkdif&mEdIif;,SOfcsufrsm;
txm;rSm &Syd gw,f/ a<u;awGpyk v Hk mwm ydNk y;D jrefvmygw,f/ b@m 1929 ckEpS f pawmhaps;uGuNf yKd uw JG mu pNy;D ? pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D jzpf&
a&;u@&JUa<u;u 1980 jynfEh pS w f ek ;f u *s'D yD &D UJ 21 % om&Scd ahJ yr,f?h wmvdkY uRefawmfwkdY,lqavh&SdMuygw,f/ a'gif;*sKH;(Dow Jones)pufrI
2007 ckEpS f a&mufawmh 116% xd&v dS mygw,f/ bPfawG&UJ vufrmS vkyfief;ysrf;rQ nTef;udef; 2% usqif;wJh? 1929 ckESpfatmufwkdbmv 24
&Sw
d t hJ ufqufawG&UJ wefz;dk u? ysr;f rQtrd af wG&UJ wefz;dk xufyNkd y;D usqif; &uf ]trnf;a&mif Mumoyaw;aeY} (Black Thursday) rSm? a0gvrf;rBuD;
ygw,f/ bDbb D D (BBB) tqifo h wfrw S cf &H wJh taygifypön;f aemuf (The Wall Street) NyKd uw JG ,fvYdk ajym½k;d ajympOf&MdS uygw,f/ trSeu f pufwif
cH&Sd tmrcHpmcsKyf (securities) awGrSmqkd&if 55% usqif;ygw,f/ bmv apmapm ykdif;uwnf;u aps;uGufusqif;aewmyg/ atmufwkdbm
'DaeYtxd qkH;½IH;wmeJY wefzkd;avQmhowfrSwf&wm a':vm 28 &ufaeY ]trnf;a&mif wevFmaeY} (Black Monday) rSm 13% usqif;Ny;D ?
334 bDv, D &H NdS yv D ?Ydk tar&duefbPfawGu 0efcNH y;D aemufq;Hk pm&if; aemufaeYrmS 12% xyfuscyhJ gw,f/ tar&duefpawmhaps;uGu[ f m aemuf
csKy&f if 'gxufyrkd sm;rSm aocsmw,fvYkd qkyd gw,f/ 'gudak xrdatmif oH;k ESpaf usmaf usmf okid ;f uGuef if;Ny;D ',dr;f ',kid ef YJ 89% usqif;cJNh y;D ? 1932
&if;ES;D aiG topfa':vm 235 bDv, D &H atmif &Smygw,f/ tom;wif ckEpS f Zlvidk vf a&mufawmh atmufq;Hk Murf;jyif qku d fomG ;ygNy/D 1929 ckEpS u f
t½IH; a':vm 99 bDvD,Hay:aygufaewmu? olwkdY&JUvufusef a&mufcw hJ hJ tjrifq
h ;Hk nTeu f ed ;f udk 1954 ckEpS f txd jyefr&cJyh gbl;/
&Si;f wrf;(balance sheets)udk 'Dt½I;H ude;f *Pef;&JU 10 q csKUH zkv Yd t
kd yf 'DESpf pufwifbm 29 &ufaeYrSm? b@ma&;0efBuD; [efYaygvfqef
w,fvYdk nTejf yaewmudu k ? jyóem jzpfaewmyg/ ajym&&if a':vm (Hank Paulson)u wifoi G ;f wJ?h u,fwifa&;pDru H ed ;f udk uGe*f &ufu y,fcs
1 x&Dv, D H eD;yg;aygh/ 'grS olw&Ydk UJ tufquf (assets)eJY rwnfaiG&if; wJth ay:? &if;ES;D jrKyEf o HS rl sm;eJY ukeo f nfawGu qefu Y siwf jYHk yefMuwJth wGu?f
(capital)tcsK;d [m? rajymif;rvJ rlao&Sa d erSmyg/ bPf&UJ tufquf pawmhaps;uGufrSm xl;xl;jcm;jcm; aps;avQmha&mif;Muygw,f/ tJ'DaeYrSm
awG[m bPfuxkwaf cs;wJah iGawG jzpfaewmaMumif?h wifaewJah <u; a'gif;*sKH;nTefudef;[m 7% eD;yg; usqif;wmaMumifh nTef;udef; pwifay:
54 55
 aygufvmwJh 1896 ckEpS u f wnf;u? wpfaeYwmusqif;rI&UJ 17 qeJY 1860 ysufpD;oGm;ygNyD/
nDrQaeygw,f/ a'gif;*sKH;nTefudef;[m NyD;cJw h EhJ pS af tmufwb dk mv 1932 ckEpS f {NyvD a&mufro S m Ekid if aH &;zdtm;awGaMumif?h A[db k Pfu
tjrifq h ;Hk &JU 25% ausmaf usmf usqif;cJyh gNy/D aps;uGufrSm bGef;pm;csKyfawGtBuD;tus,f0,fzdkY BudK;yrf;ygw,f/ 'g[m
'gayrJh pD;yGm;a&;uyfBuD; ay:aygufcJh&wJhtaMumif;&if;u aiGaMu;tusyt f wnf;(liquidity crisis)udk wefjyefx;dk ESuv f udk w f ?hJ A[db k Pf
pawmhaps;uGuNf yKd uv JG rYkd [kwb f ?J bPftrsm;tjym; ysu, f iG ;f uke&f mu &JU yxrqkH; tav;xm;tm;xkwfBudK;yrf;rIBuD; jzpfygw,f/ 'Dvdkvkyfwm
]bPfacs;aiGusKHUrIBuD;}(great contraction) aMumifjh zpf&wmvd?Yk rDvf awmifrS yxrqk;H Ekid if eH t YJ 0ef; ]bPfyw d &f ufrsm;} (Bank Holidays) (Ekid if eH YJ
wefz½du k rf if;(Milton Friedman)eJY tifem*suaf umhqef&0S yf (Anna t0ef; bPfrsm;tm;vk;H ,m,Dyw d jf cif;) aMunm&atmif wGe;f ydv Yk udk Nf y;D ? 1932
Jacobson Schwartz)wku Yd 1963 ckEpS rf mS xkwaf 0wJo h w l &Ydk UJ ]tar&d ckEpS af ESmif;ydik ;f umvrSm bPfawGusq;Hk apwJh aemufq;Hk vdiI ;f vk;H Bu;D ud?k rwm;
uefaiGaMu;orkid ;f 1867-1960} pmtkyrf mS ? xkwaf zmfa&;om;ygw,f/ qD;EkdifcJhygbl;/
pawmhaps;uGuf rNydKuGJcifvtawmfMumu? bPftyfaiG ½kpAJth pk;d &opfu a':vmwefz;dk csvrd rhf ,fqw dk hJ aumv[vaMumif?h
a':vm oef; 80 ausmu f kd ul;oef;a&mif;0,fa&;bPfawGu jyefxw k f a':vmaiGpuúLudk tvkt,ufpeG NYf y;D a&TawG0,fMuwJt h wGu?f A[db k Pfu
ay;zkdY qkdif;iHhvkdufwJhtcgupNyD;? bPfacs;aiG tusyftwnf; ay: twk;d EIe;f (discount rate) jri§ v hf u dk &f Ny;D ? 1933 ckEpS f rwfv 6 &ufaeY a&muf
aygufcw hJ myg/ bPfaygif; 608 bPf ysu, f iG ;f vmvk?Yd 1930 jynfEh pS f awmh &mxl;vufcHwm 2 &ufomMumao;wJh or®w ½kpAJhu? wpfEkdifiHvkH;
aESmif;ykid ;f a&mufwt hJ cg jyefxw k rf ay;Ekid w
f t hJ yfaiGawG? xkex YJ nfeYJ bPfrsm;ydw&f uftjzpf aMunm&awmhwmygyJ/ tJ'D ]bPfyw d &f uf} u pvdYk
aoa&;&Sifa&;jzpfvmygw,f/ 'DtxJrSm tar&duefjynfaxmifpk bPfaygif; 2500 vnf; aysmufuG,foGm;awmhwmygyJ/
bPfyg0ifNy;D tyfaiGppk ak ygif;&JUok;H ykw H pfyu Hk kd jyefxw k rf ay;Ekid af wmh [dkwkef;ueJYtck ododomomuGJjym;jcm;em;wmu? A[dkbPf (Fed-
ygbl;/ (bPfawGukd u,fwifEidk rf nfh bPftcsi;f csi;f aygif;pnf;a&; Federal Reserve System)Ouú| bifbef;euf(Ben Bernanke) [m? orki d ;f u
aqG;aEG;yGJ ysujf ym;wmuvnf; pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D &JUorkid ;f rSm aemuf oifcef;pm&cJNh y;D ygNy/D ol[m pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D taMumif;udk ESEYH pYHS yfpyfavhvmcJzh ;l
xyfaoa&;&Sifa&;umvwpfck jzpfygw,f/) w,fqkdwmudk axmufq&if? tHhMop&mawmh r[kwfygbl;/ 2007 ckESpf
z½kdufrif;eJY &S0yfwkdYjrifovdk A[dkbPfu twkdk;EIef;avQmhcs? Mo*kwv f rSm acs;aiGawG pNy;D tusy½f u dk u f wnf;u? ]bef;euf}[m A[db k Pf
acs;aiGawG xkwfacs;? bGef;aiGacs;pmcsKyfawG0,fNyD; (aps;uGufrSm wk;d EIe;f udk 5.25% uae xyfwvJvaJ vQmch scw hJ m? Ny;D cJw
h thJ ywfu tcku d f
a&mif;0,fwhJ pepfvaYkd c:wJeh nf;eJ)Y 'Duyfab;Bu;D udk oufomatmif twefo Y mxda&mufwhJ 0.25% qDusqif;oGm;ygNy/D olu aiGyifaiG&if;awG
vkyfEkdifygw,f/ 'Dvdkvkyfr,fhtpm; bPfawGudk xkwfacs;wJhaiGawG udk vrf;aMumif;toG,foG,feJY b@ma&;pepfxJ xnfhoGif;cJhwmaMumifh?
avQmah cs;Ny;D ? tajctaeudk ydNk y;D qk;d onfxufq;dk atmif vkyv f u dk yf g vGecf w hJ YJ 13 vtwGi;f pkpak ygif; a':vm 1.1 x&Dv, D aH vmuf a&muf&dS
awmhw,f/ tJ'v D v kd yk v f u dk w
f mu? bPftrsm;tjym; uref;uwef; oGm;ygNyD/
okwaf jcwifNy;D aiGay:atmif? tufqufawGukd t"r®a&mif;ckid ;f &m pD;yGm;a&;uyfBuD; qkdufwkef;uvkd r[kwfbJ? b@ma&;0efBuD;Xme
a&mufwmrk?Yd bGe;f aiGacs;pmcsKyaf wG aps;usum bPfawG&UJ vufusef uvnf; oGufoGufvufvufvIyf&Sm;ygw,f/ [dkwkef;uqkd&if tusyft
&Sif;wrf;(balance sheets)awG ydkNyD;awmif qkd;ykHaygufvmygw,f/ wnf;wpfcrk mS ? oufomacsmifcsad &;axmufyahH iG (welfare spending) jzwf
bPfawGusq;Hk zkYd aemufxyfw;dk 0ifvmwJh vdiI ;f vk;H Bu;D uawmh 1931 awmufNyD; tcGefwkd;aumuf&r,fqkd&ifawmif? tpkd;&u bufnD&okH;aiG
ckEpS f azazmf0g&DveJY Mo*kwv f Mum;rSm? ul;oef;a&mif;0,fa&;bPf pm&if; (balanced budget) jzpfatmif BuKd ;yrf;&r,fv?Ykd vltrsm;u em;vnf
awGeYJ tyfaiG[m a':vm 2.7 bDv, D tH xd usqif;oGm;Ny;D ? pkpak ygif; vufcHxm;cJhygw,f/ *Refar;ewfudef; (John Maynard Keynes)&JUtawG;
9% om&Syd gawmhw,f/ 1932 ckEpS f Zefe0g&Dva&mufawmh bPfaygif; tjrifawG vTrf;rkd;cH&wJh abm*aA'ynm&Sif rsKd;qufwpfqufu? ]'g[m
56 57
 vkyzf rYdk oifw h hJ trSm;vk;H vk;H Bu;D yg} vkYd uReaf wmfwu Ydk kd oifjycJyh gw,f/ aocsmygw,f/ pD;yGm;a&;wkq YH idk ;f (recession)wmu tckid t f rm ukyw f ,
G af e
ude;f 0g'DawGu pD;yGm;a&;wkq YH idk ;f aecsed rf mS ? tpd;k &u vdak iGjyNy;D ok;H wm wmaMumifh? rdef;vrf;rBuD;(Main Street)u pD;yGm;a&;vkyfief;awGvnf; NydK
[maumif;w,f/ bmjzpfvv Ydk q J adk wmh tJ'v D okd ;Hk wmu 0,fvt kd m;udk uGJysufpD;pjyKaeygNyD/ 62 x&DvD,Ha':vm&SdwJh ]rqyfEkdifwJha<u;NrD zvS,f
vIHYaqmfay;w,fvkdY qkdygw,f/ bGwf&Sftpkd;&u pD;yGm;a&;pef;yGifhwJh a&;} (credit-default swaps)aps;uGuu f vnf;? ½ku d cf wfc&H vdYk aygufuxJG u
G f
umvrSmawmif vdak iG Bu;D Bu;D rm;rm;ok;H cJw h maMumif?h ckq&dk if 'gxuf Ekdifygw,f/
ydkBuD;wJhvdkaiGjyNyD;okH;rnfhykHygyJ/ 'ghtjyif 'Dudpö[m tar&duefeJYom oD;oD;oefYoefYqkdifwJh tusyf
wu,fawmh a':vm 700 bDv, D u H ,fwifa&;tpDtrH r&Sd twnf;r[kwyf gbl;/ Oa&mybPfawGvnf; 'kuB© uKaH e&wmygyJ/ Oa&myZkeef YJ
onfw h idk f bJ,m;pwef;(Bear Stearns)bPfukd a*syaD rmf*ef(JP Mor- *syefw&Ydk UJ Bu;D xGm;EIe;f (growth rates)awGu? tar&duefxufawmif usqif;
gan) vufxJ axmufya hH iGay;Ny;D xk;d tyfwt hJ cg? taygifcH vkyif ef;Bu;D ygao;w,f/ xGe;f opfp aps;uGuaf wGvnf; xdcu dk ef pfemwmygyJ/ BRICvdYk
zeferD eJ zYJ &uf'rD uf (Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac) ukd jynfoyl idk f ac:wJh b&mZD;-½k&mS ;-tdE, d´ eJY w½kwEf idk if rH sm;&JU pawmhaps;uGuaf wGuvnf;
vkyf&wJhtcg? tmrcHukrÜPDBuD; attkdif*sD(AIG)udk u,fwif&wJh b&mZD;Ekid if u H vGvJ Ydk wpfEpS t f wGi;f rSm 40% ausmaf usmf usqif;cJyh gw,f/
tcg? 0g&SifwefjrLcR,fudk (Washington Mutual) a*syDarmf*ef
(JPMorgan)vufxJ a&mif;vku d &f wJt h cgeJ?Y 0gcsKAd , D m(Wachovia)udk uREfkyfwdkY 'Dtajc qdkufvmyHk
pD;wD;*½k(Citigroup)vufxJ a&mif;csvu dk &f wJt h cgawGrmS ? aygvfqef
(Paulson)u aiGawGxw k o f ;Hk cJNh y;D ygNy/D tJ'gawGtm;vk;H twGuf a':vm
200 eJY 300 bDvD,HMum; ukefusygw,f/
aiGawGeJYzdNyD; jyóemudkajz&Sif;EkdifrSm r[kwfbl;vkdY? wcsKdUu
ajymMuygw,f/ 'gayrJh 'gudkyJ A[dkbPfeJY b@ma&;XmewkdYu BudK;
yrf;tm;xkwaf ewmyg/ tBu;D tus,f NyKd uyJG supf ;D Ekid pf rG ;f &Sw d hJ pD;yGm;
a&;uyfBu;D 2.0 eJY &ifqidk Bf uKaH wGaY e&vd?Yk a':vm 2 x&Dv, D H xdo;Hk Ny;D (1) ylaygif;aygufuGJ (2) CDOs rsm; a&mif;-0,fMu
taMumufajyatmif BudK;pm;cJhwmyg/ pD;yGm;a&;uyfBuD;vdkY rac:bJ 0,fvdktm;xuf a&mif;vdktm; &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHolrsm;vufrSm t
]r[mzdtm;BuD;} vdkYom ac:Muygawmh/ rsm;vdkY tdrfwefzdk; usqif;vm aygifypönf;&Sda<u;rsm; (CDOs)
w,f/ subprime aiGacs;,lol awG pkyv kH mygw,f (collateral-
pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D 2 0. udk bmaMumifh a&SmifEidk af o;ovJ tawmfrsm;rsm; olwt Ykd rd w
f efz;kd ized debt obligations)/ taygif
jyefvnfa&;qGJxm;wJh u,fwifa&;tpDtrH twnfjyKcH& [m taygifxm;wJah iGxuf enf; pmcsKyaf ygif;pHu k kd tajccHNy;D vkyf
ayr,fh? urÇmBuD;uawmh atmufbufqD t&Sdefjyif;jyif;eJYxkd;qif;zkdY aewmodvmygw,f/ a<u; jyef xm;wJh em;vnf&cufwhJ aiGacs;
OD;wnfaewke;f ygyJ/ A[db k Pfu rD;owfyudk Bf u;D eJY aiGawGx;dk yufay;cJh qyfzYkd ysuu
f u
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f mawG rsm;vm pmcsKyf ( securities) awG [ m
ayr,fh? bPftcsif;csif; aiGacs;Muwmuvnf; acgif;rmrmeJY ayNyD; NyD;? tdrfaps;awGxyfusjyefyg (CDOs ) awGygyJ/ CDOs awG
wefaY eygw,f/ 0grl (WaMu) eJY 0gcsKAd ,
D m(Wachovia)bPfBu;D awG w,f/ atmufukd aZmufx;kd qif; [m rMumcP(t"dyÜm,fr&Sd)
NydKuGJ&mu? bPf&JUpawmhawGeJY bGef;aiGacs;pmcsKyfawG yGJvefYNyD; t pjyKvmygNyD/ taumif;qH;k tqifh AAA eJY AA
vkt,ufxw k af &mif;MuwJt
h cg? om;aumif topfawG ay:vmOD;rSm owfrw S cf &H Ny;D aiGwu
kd pf mcsKyv
f kd
cdkifrmw,fvdkY ,lqMuygw,f/

58 59
 tm&SEkdifiHawGu wpfenf;enf;eJYtar&duefudk ]vufwGJjzKwf}(de- r&Sdygbl;/
coupled)vmw,fqw dk hJ oabmxm;uvnf;? ckq&dk if pdwu f ;l ,Ofwm ouf ed*;Hk csKyv
f u
dk af wmh? pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D udk tBu;D tus,x f idk ;f rdiI ;f usqif;
oufjzpfaeykyH gyJ/ w½kwef t YJ ar&duef[m pD;yGm;a&;t& eD;eD;uyfuyf&v dS eG ;f vGef;atmif bmu vkyfvkdufwmvJqkdawmh? urÇmtESHYysHYoGm;wmu vkyf
wmrk?Yd ]csiaf r&dum;} (Chimerica) vkaYd wmif ajymEkid yf gw,f/ zefeeD YJ z&uf'D vkdufwmyg/ 1929 ckESpfuae 1932 ckESpftwGif;? urÇmhpD;yGm;a&;tiftm;
(Fannie and Freddie) vkyi f ef;Bu;D Ake;f Ake;f vJcgeD;rSm w½kwEf idk if &H UJ oD;oefY BuD; 7 EkdifiH&JU pkpkaygif;xkwfuke?f 20% eD;yg;usqif;cJhygw,f/ tvkyf
&efyaHk iG (currency reserves) &JU 5 ykH 1 yk[ H m olw&Ydk UJ bGe;f aiGacs;pmcsKyaf wG vufrJhOD;a&uvnf;? tar&duefeJY *smreDEkdifiHrSm 33% xd? tjrifhqkH;wuf
jzpfaewm od&awmh? vltawmfrsm;rsm; tHhtm;oifhukefygw,f/ rtHhMo oGm;ygw,f/ urÇmu h ek o f ,
G rf u
I vnf; ok;H ykEH pS yf u
Hk sqif;oGm;ygw,f/ txl;
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(credit-default swaps-CDSs awG a&mif;csw,f/

60 61
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62 63
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b,fvakd eyghrvJ/ uJ tck ezl;awGU'l;awGUMuKH ae&ygNycD ifAsm/ ordik ;f rSm
tBuD;us,fqHk; b@ma&;acsmufcsm;rIrsm;wGif wpfcktygt0if[k
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pepfrNyKd vaJ tmif jzpfEidk o f nfeh nf;ESihf usm;uefa'gufaxmuf&rnf

64 65
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twif;wGef;ykdYaeygNyD/ 0,fu'f 13 u'f&Sdonf/ xkdu'frsm;wGif 40 % rSm ta<u;rsm;jzpfonf/
1970 jynfhESpfu ta<u;rSm 6 % om &SdcJhonf/
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66 67
Leverage’ qdkwJh pum;vHk;[m vlwkdif;u 12 em&Dxkd;zdkY 2 rdepftvdkusrS uyfxGufr,fvdkY MuHpnfxm;Mu
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vlwpfa,mufukd rGJoGm;apEkdifwm Leverage yJ/ olu xufjruf tar&duefpD;yGm;a&;onf tvGefYtvGefyif wufwuf<u<uESifh jyK
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awmh yg;eyfvdr®mpGm pD;yGm;a&;vkyfukdif&if;? wpfuGufrSm;oGm;awmh tar&duefpD;yGm;a&;\ 'layemayESifh MuHhMuHhcHhEkdif&nf&SdyHkukd? tcsuftvuf
tukefajymifa&m? bmvdkYvJqdkawmh b,fvdk udef;*Pef;yJ jzpfjzpf? ude;f *Pef;rsm;u tHMh ozG,af zmfjyvsu&f o dS nf/ þMuchH ikd rf o I nf odyw f m&Snf
okneJaY jrm§ uf&if &v'fu oknyJ tajzxGuw f ,fav/ 'gayrJh tJ'gu cHrnfawmhr[kwaf cs/ txl;ojzihf xdwx f w d yf smysm tajctaequfvuf
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ajyvdkY? olukd,fwdkifuvnf; tqifajyvdkY/ bmeJYwlovJqdkawmh yif tar&duefp;D yGm;a&;\ tajccHawmifw h if;yHu k dk azmfneT ;f aeonfjzpf&m?
]qif'&Jvm;}uZmwfyGJMunfh&ovdkyJ/ rif;nDrif;om;awGuvnf; þab;qdk;BuD; NyD;qHk;oGm;vQif trsm;arQmfvihfonfxufykdí vQifjrefpGm
aMumharmhv?Ykd aemufcaH w;*Dwuvnf; om,mygbd? aysm&f iT pf &mvdYk xlxal xmifaxmif jzpfvmzG,&f o dS nf/ ¤if;jyif *vdb k ,fzUHG NzKd ;rIudk armif;ESif
olxifaew,f/ 12 em&DusryS J yGNJ y;D rSm? 15 rdepfawmif vdak o;w,f/ tm;jznfhay;cJhaom xGef;opfpEkdifiHrsm;\pD;yGm;a&uvnf; aeYcsif;ncsif;
igbmvdkY ½HkxJuxGuf&rSmvJ/ 12 em&Dxkd;zdkY 2 rdepf tvdkusrS xGuf arS;rSdefoGm;vdrfhrnfr[kwfacs/
r,fvdkY olu awG;w,f/ cufwmu eH&HrSm em&DwpfvHk;rS r&Sdbl;/ pnf;urf;pnf;rsO;f opfrsm; csrw S u f sio hf ;kH vm&aomaMumifh tar&dum;
68 69
tD&wfEkdifiH ta&;aMumifh uif;atmif BudK;yrf;vmMuzG,f&Sdonf/ ,cktcg tar&duefjynfaxmifpk
tar&duefwdkY\ onf jynfyrSt&if;tESD;rsm; 0ifvmatmif qGJaqmifzdkYvkyfaqmifMurnfh
EkdifiHa&;ESifh ppfa&;tajctaetay: tjyif? rdr\ d b@ma&;taqmufttHu k vdk nf; ykrd ckd ikd rf matmif pDrMH u&ay
,HkMunfrI avsmhyg;cJh&onfqdkvQif rnf/ Ekid if tH rsm;ukd jynfyta&;tcif;rsm;wGif rdrw d EYkd iS t hf wl vufwyJG g0if
,ck b@ma&;tusyftwnf;aMumifh vmatmif odrf;oGif;pnf;½Hk;Mu&rnf/ r[mAsL[mqdkif&m a&G;cs,frIrsm;ukd
tar&duef\ pD;yGm;a&;ESifh b@ma&;tiftm;rSm vkyaf qmif&rnf/ wpfa,mufu ½k&mS ;\e,ferd w d w f pfavQmufwiG f 'H;k cGi;f 'H;k
yGef;yJhcJh&onf[k qdkEkdifayonf/ rsm; pDwef;csae&if;? a*sm*f s, D mESihf ,lu&de;f wdYk aewd;k tzGUJ xJqaJG c:ae&if;?
usew f pfzufu tD&ef\ EsLuvD,m; jyóemwGif ½k&mS ;udk rdrw d EYkd iS yfh ;l aygif;
ukd ykí d a,bk,saqmifaom t"dymÜ ,fjzifh tusK;d jzpfxeG ;f apygvdrhf vkyaf qmif&ef? ½k&mS ;ukd arQmv f ihEf idk rf nf r[kwaf cs/ w½kwEf iS hf tm&yfEidk if rH sm;
rnf/ qdAk , D ufjynfaxmifpk NyKd uo JG mG ;csed rf pS í tar&duefjynfaxmif u aiGvHk;aiG&if;jzihf tar&dum;wGif vma&muf&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHaeMuonfudk
pkonf urÇmay:wGif ¤if;\wefcdk;yg0gukd tcsKyftcs,f tuefY wpfzufu qlqn l nH ½H w
I cf sajymqd&k if;? usew f pfzufu olwu Ykd ydk if T-bills
towfr&Sd usio hf ;kH vmEkid cf o
hJ nf/ þtajctaeonf tar&duef\ awG a':vm oef; 4000 zdk;avmuf0,f,lMuzdkY arQmfvihfaejyefonf/
Ekid if jH cm;a&;rl0g'tay: tEIwv f u©Pmrsm;udk jzpfay:apcJo h nf/ xkd uRefawmfwdkY\ taqmufttHkBuD; ukd,füu? z½dkz&Jy&rf;ywmjzpfaevQif
tajctaeaMumifh 0g&Siw f efonf armufrmvmonf? ysi;f &dvmonf? urÇmBu;D ukd t&if;&Sipf epfEiS fh 'Dru kd a&pDw&m; qufa[maevdYk jzpfEidk rf nf
tqifjcifrv hJ mawmhonf? 0g&Siw f ef\ qH;k jzwfcsurf sm;csykH enf;pepf r[kwaf cs/
onf? 1970 ESihf 80 ckveG Ef pS rf sm;twGi;f G.M armfawmfum;ukrP Ü \
D pD;yGm;a&;wGifvnf;aumif;? tm;upm;wGifvnf;aumif;? b0wGif
pD;yGm;a&;r[mAsL[mESifh oGm;íqifwlaeonf/ rsm;jym;vSpGmaom vnf;aumif; ],SONf yKd ijf cif;&Srd S aumif;onf}[laom t,ltqonf tar&d
jynfwGif;tcsuftvufrsm;tay:wGifom tajccHNyD;? jyifyurÇm\ uefwdkY\ tajccH,HkMunfcsufjzpfonf/ ppfaq;jcif;ESihf [efcsufnDatmif
tajctaeESizfh t d m;ukd tm½Hrk xm;cJMh uacs/ uReaf wmfwYkd r[mAsL[m xdef;nd§jcif;wdkYonf James Madison \ ta&;ygaom vkyfxHk;vkyfenf;
a&G;cs,rf I jyKp&mrvd?k uReaf wmfwv Ykd yk cf siw f m vkyEf idk o f nf/ uReaf wmfwYkd jzpfonf/ armufrmjcif;ESihf wvGt J oH;k jyKjcif;wduYk dk azmfxw k Nf y;D wefjyef&rnf/
qd;k qd;k 0g;0g;trSm;rsm;ukd vkyEf idk o f nf/ urÇmBu;D ukd a'goxGuaf tmif vlxkukd pnf;urf;vdkufematmif wGef;tm;ay;&rnf/ þtusihfp½dkufESihf
vkyfEkdifonf/ r[mrdwfawGESifh oabmuGJvGJEkdifonf/ t&if;tjrpf aeom;usaeaomEkdifiHtzdkY? pnf;urf;Muyfrwfjcif;onf pdwfrcsrf;ajrhp&m
awGukd jzKe;f wD;ypfEidk o f nf/ rEkid rf eif;ESifh ppfwu kd Ef idk of nf/ udprö &Syd g/ jzpfayvdrrhf nf/ okaYd omf a&&Snw f iG ?f pnf;urf;u uReaf wmfwu Ykd dk ykrd t kd iftm;
uReaf wmfwYkd trSm;awGvyk rf &d ifvnf; udprö &S?d trSm;cHEidk o f nf trsm; awmifhwif;atmif? vkyfaqmifay;ygvdrfhrnf/ vufiif;tusyftwnf;rS
BuD; trSm;cHEkdifonf/ oifcef;pmrSerf eS uf efuef ,lwwfygvQi?f tar&duefjynfaxmifpo k nf uk, d f
okdYaomf jyifyurÇmBuD;u xkdokdYr[kwfyg/ tD&wfEkdifiHta&; csrwS af ompnf;urf;uk?d uk, d wf ikd v f u
kd ef maom Ekid if w H pfEidk if H jyefjzpfvmyg
aMumifh tar&duefwdkY\ EkdifiHa&;ESifh ppfa&;tajctaetay: ,Hk vdrfhrnf/ xkdokdYjzpfvmvQif uRefawmfwdkYtusKd;,kwfzG,f r&Sdyg/
MunfraI vsmyh g;cJ&h onfqv kd Qi?f ,ck b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;aMumifh
tar&duef\ pD;yGm;a&;ESihf b@ma&;tiftm;rSm yGe;f yJch &hJ onfqEkd idk f armifukdBuD;
ayonf/ a&wdw k iG f ab;vGw&f majy;onft h aeESihf a':vmawG T-bills
awGudk 0,f,pl ak qmif;Muvdrrhf nf/ okaYd omf a&&Snw f iG rf l Ekid if t
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onf rwnfrNidrf&SdvSaom qlyg yg0gBuD;xHrS trSDtcdkuif;EkdiforQ
70 71
 uHZmwmñSKd ;wJt
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„ bvwfatmif

pD;yGm;a&;uyfBuD;aemufykdif;jzpfvmwJh tqkd;qkH;b@ma&; tusyf

twnf;BuD;u? tpkd;&eJYaps;uGufpnf;jcm;wJh e,fedrdwfrsOf;udk jyef
vnfowfrw S af eNyv D Ykd (Zanny Minton Beddoes) u ajymygw,f/
ae&mrSefrSm pnf;jcm;owfrSwfEkdifyghrvm;/
1929 ckESpf atmufwkdbmv pawmhaps;uGufNydKuGJNyD;wJh
aemuf? 1933 ckEpS f rwfvrSm ½kpAJu h bPfyw d &f uf 4 &uf aMunm
wmupNy;D ? pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D udt k qk;H owfatmif BuKd ;yrf;rIawG wpfoD
BuD;vkyfzkdY tar&dueftpkd;&u 3 ESpfausmftcsdef,l&ygw,f/ Mum;
umvrSmawmh orkid ;f rSmtqk;d qk;H NyKd urJG BI u;D ud?k tar&duefawG jrifawGY
Mu&ygw,f/ axmifeJYcsDwJhbPfawGydwf&? ukefaps;EIef;awG xkd;us
(detlation)? xkwu f ek of ;Hk ykH wpfyu Hk sqwif;Ny;D tvkyv f ufru hJ 25%xd
rsm;vmygw,f/ tJ'geJY aemufqufwt JG aeeJY tpk;d &eJY aps;uGuw f MYdkum;
e,fjcm;rsOf;udk jyefowfrSwf&ygawmhw,f/
2007 ckEpS f atmufwb dk mvrSm b@ma&;rkew f idk ;f Bu;D wku d f
cwfNyD;wJhaemuf? vGefcJhwJhvupNyD; tpkd;&u b@ma&;aps;uGufxJ
0ifpGufzufvmygw,f/ tJ'Dwkef;u tvkyfvufrJh 6.1%om&SdNyD;?
pD;yGm;a&;wkq YH idk ;f rI (recession) jzpfzaYdk wmif raocsmao;ygbl;/ A[dk
bPfeYJ b@ma&;Xmewku Yd ? ESpyf wftwGi;f taygifcv H yk if ef;Bu;D ESpcf k
jzpfwhJ Fannie Mae eJY Freddie Mac Ekid if yH idk v f yk vf udk Nf y;D urÇmt h Bu;D qk;H
tmrcHukrÜPDBuD; AIG udk odrf;,lvkdufygw,f/ b@ma&;eJYqkdifwJh
pawmhrsKd;aygif; 900 ausmf aps;rupm;atmif ,m,DydwfvkdufNyD;?
taygifvyk if ef;eJq Y ufE, G w f hJ tqdyo f ifth ufqufawGtwGuf a':vm
700 bDv, D t H xd wm0ef,v l u dk yf gw,f/ A[db k PfeYJ b@ma&;Xme
wkuYd pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D qD OD;wnfaewJh bPfNyKd urJG BI u;D udw k m;qD;zk?Yd
qkH;jzwfxm;ygw,f/

72 73
 tar&duefb@ma&;½Icif;u ajymif;oGm;ygNyD/ tqrwefaiGacs; ysupf ;D &mu? olwaYdk zgufonf ]arSmif&yd cf b dk Pf} awGyg xnfw h u
G &f if
,lNyD;? vkyfief;csJUwmawGtay: rSDckdae&wJh a0gvrf;rBuD;u? xif&mpkdif;wJh urÇmhacs;aiGusKHU (credit contraction) oGm;wm[m? x&DvD,Haygif;
&if;ESD;jrKyfESHrIbPfBuD;awGvnf; aysmufuG,foGm;ygNyD/ Lehman Brothers trsm;BuD;&SdEkdifygw,f/ tar&duefeJY Oa&mybPfawGeJY tufquf
NyKd uo JG mG ;ovd?k Bear Stearns eJY Merril Lynch wkv Yd nf; ul;oef;a&mif;0,f a':vm 10 x&Dv, D aH vsmo h mG ;r,fvYkd IMF u qkyd gw,f/ tar&duef
a&;bPfawG&JU 0g;rsdKwmcH&ygNyD/ Goldman Sachs eJY Morgan Stanley &JUa':vm 700 bDv, D u H ,fwifa&; tpDtpOfomr&Scd &hJ if? 'gxuf
wkv Yd nf;? olwu Ydk ,
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]arSmif&dyfckdbPfpepf} (Shadow Banking System)vkdYac:wJh Money acs;aiG&zkrYd vG,w f mu wpfz?Hk apmapmykid ;f u a&eHaps;wuf
Market Funds, Securities Dealers, Hedge Funds eJY bPfr[kwfwJh wmaMumifh wpfenf;? csrf;omwJhEkdifiHawmfrsm;rsm;[m pD;yGm;a&;wkHY
b@ma&;tzGt YJ pnf;awGvnf; tjrefq;Hk ajymif;oGm;ygNy/D 3ywftwGi;f rSm qkid ;f wm(recession)udk cHae&ygNyD/ NAdwdef? jyifopf? *smreDeJY *syef
yJ tar&dueftpk;d &u ay;&efwm0ef pkpak ygif; a':vm 1 x&Dv, D t
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'gxufydkqkd;wmu NyD;cJhwJh pufwifbmvrSm uaomif;ueif;jzpf &&if tar&duefpD;yGm;a&;vnf; odyfr[efvSygbl;/
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bPfBuD; 5 bPfNydKuGJoGm;ygNyD/ olwkdYtpkd;&u 0ifNyD;u,fwif&ygw,f/ MumOD;rSmyg/ vkyif ef;awG&UJ tajctaeu odyrf qk;d vSayr,f?h txl;
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qef;ppfcsuf NydKifwnf;vdkvdkay:aygufaewmaMumifh? jyefemvefxlzkdY tcsdefydk,l
'Dtusyt f wnf;[m? orkid ;f rSm tBu;D qk;H tdrNf caH jreJY acs;aiG ylazgif; &ygvdrfhr,f/
BuD;aygufuGJ&muae? pcJhwmyg/ tdrfNcHajraps; 5 ykH 1 ykH usoGm;ygw,f/ 'gayrJh orkid ;f uta&;Bu;D wJo h ifcef;pmawG oifMum;xm;wm
aemufxyf 10% usqif;OD;r,fvdkY avhvmpDppfolawGu arQmfvifhxm;yg &Syd gw,f/ wpfcu k ? trsm;jynfoal iGawGeYJ pkyaHk tmNy;D bPftusyf
w,f/ wjcm;EkdifiHawG 'gxufqkd;ygw,f/ NAdwdefEkdifiHqkd&if tar&duef rd twnf;udk tjrpfjywfacsrIef;wmeJY? aemufwpfcku t&if;tESD;aiG
om;pkawGxuf ydkNyD;a<u;xlygw,f/ jyefxlaxmifay;rvm;? 'grSr[kwf jyóemjzpfaewJha<u;awGudk
tdrf0,fwkef;u tdrfaygifcHNyD; acs;vkdufwJhaiGawGqkH;½IH;wmeJY? tJ'D yckH;ajymif;,lrvm;qkdwm tjrefqkH;jzwfzkdYygyJ/
a<u;awGtay: ½IyfaxG;vSwJh a<u;jyefazmfvkyfief;awGu wpfcg xyfydae ckcsdefxdawmh pdwfoufomp&mawG &Sdygao;w,f/ tJ'gu
ygao;w,f/ tar&duefupcJw h t
hJ a<u;awGuae qk;H ½I;H wmawGu? wpfurÇm w½kwEf idk if t H ygt0if xGe;f opfppD;yGm;a&;Ekid if aH wGyg/ csr;f omwJEh idk if H
vk;H rSmqk&d if a':vm 1.4 x&Dv, D &H adS eNyv
D Ykd IMF u wGucf sujf yygw,f/ awG 'kua© wGaY ewke;f vrf;cGrJ nfyh Hk (decoupling) ray:ao;ygbl;/ olwYdk
b@ma&;tzGt YJ pnf;awGu &&ef&w dS ahJ <u;awG&UJ wefz;dk udk avQmo
h wfrw
S &f vdYk pawmhaps;uGuaf wGvnf; xk;d usaeNy;D ? aiGwefz;dk awGvnf; tusjref
qkH;½IH;wJhaiGuvnf; a':vm 760 bDvD,H &SdaeygNyD/ aeygw,f/ jynfwiG ;f 0,fvt kd m;uvnf; aES;aejyefawmh 'DEidk if aH wG
urÇmeJNY cKMH unf&h if bPfvyk if ef;wpfcw k nf;uyJ? acs;aiGaMumifh a':vm aemufEpS af wGrmS GDP avsmeh nf;r,fvYkd IMF u cefrY eS ;f xm;ygw,f/
600 bDv, D qH ;Hk ½I;H wmaMumif?h aiG&if;aiGE;DS (capital) a':vm 430 bDv, D H aemufwGef;tm;wpfcku a&mif;ukef (commodity) aps;EIe;f
xyf&Sm&ygOD;r,f/ acs;aiG,lNyD; vkyfief;csJUvkyfwJh &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIbPfawG awGusaewJhudpöyg/ txl;ojzifh a&eHaps;usygw,f/ b@ma&;
74 75
tusyt f wnf;jzpfpu aps;EIe;f awG rw&m;jrifw h ufcw hJ maMumif?h ZGevf rSm a':vmNydKvJ&ifawmh tEÅ&m,fBuD;jzpfrSmaocsmygw,f/
a&eHaps;u 2 q wufcJhygw,f/ pm;ukefaps;EIef;ckefwufwmu 55%
eD;yg;yg/ wpfurÇmvkH; tifzav;&Sif; jrifhwufvmygw,f/ a[mudef;
'Dvkdjrifhwufwmu b@ma&;tusyftwnf;eJY aygif;pnf;oGm;wJh a&&SnfrSmbmjzpfrvJ/ rNyD;ao;wJh tusyftwnf;wpfck&JU
twGuf? A[dkbPftaeeJY tavQmhtwif;vkyf&ukdif&wm ydk½IyfaxG;vmyg tusKd;qufudk a[mudef;xkwf&wm tEÅ&m,fuawmh trsm;om;/
w,f/ jrifrh m;aewJh tifzav;&Si;f udw k u dk zf Ydk Oa&myA[db k PfawGvyk o f vdk ab;'kuB© u;D rMuKH &bl;qkOd ;D awmh *vdb k ,fvu kd af Z;&Si;f &JUvrf;aMumif;
wif;usyfwJhaiGaMu;rl0g' csrSwfvkyfukdifEkdifygw,f/ 'grSr[kwf b@ma&; ajymif;oGm;rSm &Si;f aeygw,f/ q,fpEk pS f ESppf v k ;Hk vk;H urÇmph ;D yGm;a&;
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f &if;&Sipf epf} (free-market capitalism)
xk;d usvmNy;D ? tifzav;&Si;f tEÅ&m,fu vGwo f mG ;ygNy/D 'DtEÅ&m,fuvGwf eJY wpfxyfwnf;usaecJhygw,f/ a&mif;a&;0,fwmeJY t&if;pD;qif;
ayr,f?h 'Dzav;&Si;f (deflation)twGuf rMumcif aomua&mufjyefEidk yf gw,f/ wm (capital flows) udk vGwfvGwfvyfvyfvkyfcGifhjyKwm? jynfwGif;
OD;eif;yJhaxmif? yJheif; OD;axmifygyJ/ pufrIvkyfief;awGeJY b@ma&;vkyfief;awG pnf;urf;owfrSwfcsuf
tar&duefrmS omrefpm&if; (current account) tBu;D tus,f vdak iG avQmah yghay;wmawGu? *vdb k ,fvu dk af Z;&Si;f udk aphaqmf&ma&muf
jyaevdkY EkdifiHjcm;ykdifaiGaMu; tay: rScD adk e&wJh jyóemygyJ/ a': ovdk oauFwtrSwftom;wpfckvnf; jzpfapygw,f/ ae&m
vmaiGuurÇmhoD;oefY &efykHaiG t tawmfrsm;rsm;rSm urÇmBu;D aygif;pnf;vmwmu? tpk;d &tay: aps;
jzpfxm;wJah iGjzpfvYdk tcGit hf vrf; uGufu tEkdif&aewmudkjyaeygw,f/ ckawmh 'Dvkyfief;pOfBuD;[m
awmh omygw,f/ b@m vrf; 3 oG,feJY ajymif;jyeftvSefcHae&ygNyD/
a&; uaomif;ueif; yxr
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jzpfwmu ysHUoGm;wJh pnf;urf; jyefowfrSwfcH&ygvdrfhr,f/ a<u;tmrcHvkyfief; (credit
twGuf a':vmaiG derivative) awG pnf;urf;abmifxJ toGi;f cH&ygvdrr hf ,f/ aiGacs;Ny;D
aps;wufvmygw,f/ 'gayrJh vkyif ef;csUJ (leverage)wmawGenf;oGm;atmif? 'PfcEH idk af tmif aiG&if;
'DaeYtusyftwnf;u tar&d &SmwJhpnf;rsOf;(rules on capital)awG jyefa&;qGJvmygvdrfhr,f/ ½Iyf
uefa':vmaiGtay: ,kMH unfpw d f axG;aewJh 0uFygpnf;rsO;f awGukd jyefpepfusatmif vkyyf gvdrrhf ,f/
cs&wmudk prf;oyfaeygw,f/ wjcm; 'kwd,tcsuu f tpk;d &eJY aps;uGuw f &Ydk UJ [efcsuu f b@ma&;
Ekid if aH wGua':vmudk qufuikd rf xm;bJ u@mrSmxuf? wjcm;ae&mrSmydNk y;D ajymif;vJaeygw,f/ Ekid if t H awmf
vT w f v k d u f & if tar&d u ef rsm;rsm;rSm a&mif;uke(f commodity)awG aps;acgifcu dk af evd?Yk aps;upm;
b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;om r olawG tjypfwifcaH e&ygw,f/ 2007 ckEpS af emufyidk ;f eJY 2008 ckEpS f
uyJ aiGaMu;(currency crises) apmapmykid ;f umvawGrmS ? pm;ukeaf ps;awGx;dk wufvYdk Ekid if aH ygif; 30
tusyftwnf;yg &ifqkdif&yg avmufrmS qlyrl aI wGjzpfc&hJ ygw,f/ 'gaMumifh xGe;f opfpEkid if aH wG&UJ
vd r f h r ,f / tar&d u ef E k d i f i H tpk;d &awGu aps;EIe;f awGuefo Y wf? axmufyahH iGw;dk ay;Ny;D ta&;Bu;D
tay: wifaewJha<u;awG[m ukefypönf;awGwifydkYwmudkwm;qD;wmawG vkyf&ygw,f/
udk,fhaiGeJYudk,f wifwmyJ qkdayr,fh wwd,tcsuu f tar&duefEidk if [ H m? pD;yGm;a&;rSma&m ynm

76 77
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txl;ojzifyh rkd eS yf gw,f/ pkaqmif;aiGrsm;jym;wJh tm&SEidk if aH wGeYJ a&eHoal X; t&if;&Sipf epfopfxuf Ekid if aH ygif;pkyH g0ifa&;pepfopfukd urÇmBu;D u
EkdifiHawGu? t&if;awGydkxnfhay;r,fqkd&if taemufEkdifiHawG&JU pD;yGm;a&; ydk vdktyfygw,f/
aiG&if;&Sm&wm oufomEkid yf gw,f/ aiGxyk Bf u;D aemufu MoZmvnf;vku d yf g vGecf whJ hJ 10 ESpf xGe;f opfppD;yGm;a&;Ekid if aH wG tusyt f wnf;
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aps;uGuft"Gefh&Snfa&; Summers wk& Yd UJ ykaH wGukd azmfjycJyh gw,f/ 'Do;kH OD;tzGu
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rsufESmrvSwJhq&mwkdYtaeeJY? bmoifcef;pm,loifhovJqkdwJh ar;cGef;BuD; r*¾Zif;twGif;rSm a&;xm;ygw,f/
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ajymif;a&TUoifhovJ/ 'Daqmif;yg;u b@ma&;pnf;rsOf;udpörSm [efcsuf awGYcJh&wmxuf ydkqkd;ygw,f/ 'gayrJh 'DvdkrsufESmzkH;rsKd;rSm? b,folY
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kd ,fvYdk wku d wf eG ;f ayr,f?h h acwfopfb@ma&;vkyif ef;eJY
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om t"duvufonfqNdk y;D ? tjypfycHk s&ifawmh rSm;ygvdrrhf ,f/ aiGacs;pmcsKyf
vkyaf &mif;wm (securitisation) ray:cifuwnf;u? &mpkEpS ef cYJ sND y;D aps;upm;
wmawG &SdaecJhwmyg/ 'gaMumifh 'DaeYjzpfaewJhtcuftcJawGudk tpdk;&u
wku d ½f udk w
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78 79
"mwfyyHk gvmrvJqw dk m odzcYdk ufaeygao;w,f/ ]a0g} vrf;rBu;D u? 'Dt½Iyf ydck EH idk yf gw,f/ taemufwidk ;f b@ma&; tokid ;f t0kid ;f &JU tjyifbuf
taxG;BuD;&JU A[dkcsufrSm&SdwmrkdY? tar&duef&JU*kPfowif;eJY ynm&SifwkdY&JU rSm aiG&if;aiGE;DS (capital)u aygrSayg/ a&mif;ukef(commodity) aps;
MoZmanmif;rIawGvnf; uRr;f jyefuek yf gNy/D tm&Su a<u;rqyfEidk f jzpfaewm awGusaewmaMumif?h twk;d enf;enf;eJY tusoufomatmif ul&iS cf H
udk ESdrfESif;zkdYaeaeomom? b@ma&;0efBuD;eJY A[dkbPfOuú|wkdYu olwkdY Ekid yf gw,f/ Oa&myjynfoal wG a<u;ydaeayr,fh olwt Ydk pk;d &uvnf;?
b@ma&;pepfBu;D raygufuaJG tmif? tvl;tvJ BuKd ;yrf;ae&ygw,f/ tm&S tar&dueftpk;d &vdk trsm;ydik &f efyaHk iGeYJ t&if;iwfaewJb h PfawGu?
Ekid if aH wGukd [dv k v kd yk ?f 'Dvu dk idk q
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uawmh ew¬dygyJ/ vkdufygNyD/
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bPfawGu vlawGtaMumufajyatmif? b@ma&;aps;uGux f J vpfupG 'f w D D rsm;rnfyh yHk gyJ/ bPfawG aiG&if;aiGE;DS jyefjynfph zHk eYdk YJ wnfNird v f mzk?Yd csr;f
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avmufwJhaiGawG acs;iSm;ay;cJhygw,f/
uHraumif;wJt h csuu f A[db k PfawGu? 'Djyóemudk vpfupG 'f w D D
wpfcw k nf;xk;d oGi;f Ny;D ? rajz&Si;f Ekid yf gbl;/ bmaMumifv h q J adk wmh 'Dtusyt f
wnf;u a<u;awGjyefrqyfEidk af wmhwmaMumifeh ?YJ vpfupG 'f w D D rvkaH vmufvYdk
jzpf&wJt h usyt f wnf;jzpfaevkyYd g/ pD;yGm;a&;uyfBu;D jzpfNy;D uwnf;u orkid ;f
rSmtBu;D qk;H tdrNf caH jreJY acs;aiGyal ygif;aygufurJG BI u;D u? tBu;D qk;H aygufuJG
rIBu;D jzpfvmEkid w f hJ bPfaygufurJG BI u;D udk zefw;D vku d yf gNy/D Ekid if tH awmfrsm;rsm;
vnf; wpfNydKifwnf;jzpfvmygw,f/ csrf;omwJhEkdifiHawG&JUbPfawGrSm aiG
yifaiG&if;(capital) cef;ukeyf gNy/D tawmfrsm;rsm; a<u; rqyfEidk af wmhygbl;/
aiGjyefazmfawmhvnf; tufqufawG wGe;f xk;d a&mif;&vdYk aps;xk;d useYJ El&m0JpJG
awmhwmygyJ/ &Sw d ahJ iGav; uspu f spyf gatmif qkyx f m;jyefawmh? jyóemu
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80 81
wmuom 'DaoG;vefYaewJh aps;uGufudk NidrfatmifvkyfEkdifrSmyg/ 'Doabm
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tar&duefwkdY&JU xkwfukefwkd;atmif ulnD&ma&mufygw,f/
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w,f/ 'gayrJh vkyif ef;wpf0ufwpfysuo f m atmifjrifcyhJ gw,f/ 'DaeY MuKH &wJh
jyóemu ydkeuf½dIif;NyD;? tzGJY0ifawGvnf; rsm;vmygw,f/ EkdifiHpkHyg0ifa&;
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82
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ylaygif;awGudk csrf;omwJhEkdifiHawGu wefjyefzkdYysufuGufcJhygw,f/
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'DaeYjzpfaewJh t½IyftaxG;BuD;[m? rl0g'csrSwfolawGu ]*vdkb,f
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tEÅ&m,fawGuvnf; trsm;om;/ Oyrmqkdygawmh? pawmhiSm;NyD;
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83
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aps;uGuu f ? rsK;d qufwpfqufMumatmif vGwv f wG v
f yfvyfvyk u f idk f 1907 ckEpS f b@ma&;tusyt f
cJh? vkyfief;awGvnf; tNydKif;t½dkif;ay:xGufvmvmcJh? <u,fvnf; <u,f0 wnf;ü &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIbPfjzpf
vmcJNh y;D rS ckvakd jymif;jyefveS cf &H wm tvGecf g;oD;p&mjzpfrmS yg/ oef;&meJcY sw D hJ aom ATO onfNyKd vo J mG ;aom
vlawG qif;&JwGif;u vGwfcJhvdkY? vlvwfwef;pm;b0ukd vloef;&meJYcsDNyD; tcg a0gpx&d ESi0hf g&Siw f efww Ydk iG f
xyfaqmif;a&mufcyhJ gNy/D tpd;k &eJaY ps;uGuMf um;u [efcsuu f kd urÇmBu;D u xdwfvefYwMum;jzpfukefonf/
jyefokH;oyfwJhtcg <u,f0rIawGeJYtwlygvmwmawG? vrf;wpfavQmufrSm ,ck xdyfoD;emrnfBuD;
aysmufqkH;ukefr,fqkd&ifawmh aMuuGJp&mjzpfawmhrSm/ a*syD armf*efbPfBuD;udk pwif
bvwfatmi tmiff wnfaxmiforl pöwmarmf*efonf?
Ref : When fortune frowned; A special report on the world a0gpx&dteD;tem;ü olY½kH;cef;
economy;The Economist 11 October 2008. zGifhxm;onf/ a0gpx&d pawmh

84 85
 tdyfpfcsdef;ü &S,f,maps;xkd;usoGm;NyD[k Mum;onfESifh? a*syaD rmf*efonf (1907 ckEpS f acsmufcsm;rI)pmtkyw f iG f tus,w f 0ifh rSww f rf;wifxm;onf/
e,l;a,mufpawmhtdyfcsdef; taqmufttkHxJ 0ifvmonf/ 1907 ckESpf a*syDarmf*efvdk ysufoGm;onf,EÅ&m;udk 0ifjyifqifay;onfholrsm;
atmufwb dk mv 23 &ufaeYwiG jf zpfonf/ olu pawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f xJ0ifvmNy;D (new fixer)wku Yd ?kd 2008 ckEpS b
f @ma&;pepf ,kid v f NJ yKd usrüI &SmazGMunfvh m
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r& xk;d usomG ;aMumif; ajymjyaomtcg? a*syaD rmf*efu pum;wpfceG ;f t&if 0g&Jib
hf ;l zuf udak wGUonf/ olonf &if;ES;D jrKyEf rHS aI umfyakd &;&Si;f Bu;D jzpfaom
ajymonf/ ]ab;'ku©udk &yfypfzkdYae&m[m 'Dae&myJ}[k ajymvkdufonf/ bwf½dIif;,m;rm;om;a0;udk ykdifonf/

armf*ef0ifvm aiGarsm&m aiGvkduf

a*syaD rmf*ef\ qkvd akd omoabmrSm? tar&duefawG 'kua© &mufae ypön;f ukepf nf'idk ?f &S,, f m'kid ?f tjcm;'kid w f w Ydk iG f olaX;Bu;D wpfa,muf
jcif;udk wm;qD;vdkvQif? a0gpx&dpawmhtdyfcsdef;wGif &S,f,maps;awG pkduf a,mufu vTr;f rk;d wwfojzif?h olaY jympum;onf twnfjzpfonf/ oltmrcH
qif;oGm;jcif;udw k m;qD;&rnf/ Trust Co. of America NyKd vo J mG ;rnfukd olu vQif tuket f qifajyukeo f nf/ olajymaomaps;EIe;f onf aygufaps;jzpfonf/
txl;pkd;&drfonf/ okdYjzifh olubPform;wkdYudk csufcsif;pk xkaY d Mumifh e,l;a,mufpawmhtyd cf sed ;f wGif a*syaD rmf*efu tawmfMoZmBu;D cJah v
onf/ &orQaiGawG pkodrf;&m? rdepf 20 twGif;a':vm &m? ,ckbDvD,HemolaX;BuD; bl;zufudk apmif;iJhMunfhvmMuonf/ 1907
25 oef; &&Sdonf/ þa':vm 25 oef;jzifh NydKvJoGm; ckEpS u f a*syaD rmf*efBu;D ? a0gpx&dukd pawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f xJ0ifNy;D aps;usaeaom
aom &S,, f mawG0,f? e,l;a,mufjrLeDpy,ftzGUJ \ aiG pawmh&, S ,f mwku Yd kd odr;f usK;H 0,fovd?k ,ckvnf; olaX;Bu;D bl;zufu aps;us
acs;tmrcHpmcsKyaf wGyg 0,fypfvu dk of nf/ xkjYd yif aeaomtufqufwu Ydk kd odr;f usK;H 0,f,al vrvm;[k apmifMh unfah eMuonf/
Oa&myrS olyidk af &Twu Ydk v kd nf; rSm,lvu dk of nf/ a*syDarmf*efbPfBuD;\tBuD;tuJESifh rlvykdif&Sif a*syDarmf*efudk
a&Tudk rSm,lonfrSm a':vmwefzkd;rusqif; tarGqufcHolrSm *sdrf;'DrGefjzpfonf/ vuf&Sdb@ma&;0efBuD; ay:vfqef
&ef usm;uefay;zkdYESifh 0g&Sifweftpdk;&vuf udv k nf; ysuo f mG ;aomb@ma&;puf,EÅ&m;udk jyifqifay;Ekid o f tl jzpfxnfh
xJ aiGaMu;rjywfoGm;zkdYjzpfonf/ wGufMuonf/ olu &if;ESD;jrKyfESHrIbPfBuD;jzpfaom *dk;vfrif;qufcsf\
bl;zuf a*syDarmf*efwpfOD;wnf;u OD; pDt;D tkad [mif;jzpfonf/ b@ma&;,EÅ&m;udk 0dZmÆ "k&d yf rm uRr;f usio f nf/
aqmifOD;&GufjyKNyD; aiGawG&Sm? a&TawG b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;qko d nfrmS aiGarsm&m aiGev YJ u
dk of abmjzpf
o,f? xkd;usaeaom&S,f,mESifhbGef; onf/ aiGtiftm;? "etiftm;awmifah om bDv, D eH mBu;D u? 'kua© &mufaeaom
wku Yd kd 0,f,v l u dk o f jzif&h ufowåywf tufqufwu Ydk kd odr;f usK;H 0,f,El idk af vrvm;[k? tvm;tvmudk arQmv f ifMh u
ESpyf wfavmufuyfqu dk af eaomtar onf/ olwkdYu a0gpx&dpawmhtdyfcsdef;xJ0ifvmNyD;? usaps;jzpfaeaom
&duefpD;yGm;a&;onfjyefrwfomG ;onf/ &S,, f mESit hf ufqufwu Ydk kd odr;f usK;H 0,f,v l Qi?f pawmh&, S ,
f maps;awG jyef
a*syDarmf*efwpfOD;wnf;jzifh e,l; rwfvmEkdifonf/
a,muf? a0gpx&dEiS hf 0g&Sif þokw Yd uG o f w l u Ydk wGuaf epOfwiG f w½kwjf ynfü usi;f yjyKvyk af om
weftpd;k &wku Yd kd u,fwif 'gAkdYpfzkd&rfü vuf&b dS @ma&;tusyt f wnf;udk wpfOD;aumif;vkyfvdkY r&
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; ynm&S i f a&S mif um; onf/ b,foif;udk ydkNyD;arQmfvifhcsufxm;&rSef; roday/
ay:vfqef
u The Panic of 1907 Ref : The Economics armifpl;prf;
86 bl;zuf ay:vfqef *sdrf;'DrGef 87
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„ OD;csrf;at;
aps;uGufppfppf tjzpfonf? vuf&t dS ajctaeü tvGet f pGe;f a&mufaeonf/ awmfveS &f m
0,fvmay;aompmtkyu f Radical for Capitalism jzpfonf/ t&if; usaeonf/ þokdY tpGef;a&muform;wkdYu aps;uGufxJ tpdk;&r&Sdav,
&Sipf epftwGuf awmfveS af &;orm;rsm;[k bmomjyefvQif &Ekid yf gonf/ aumif;av[k ajymonf/ tpkd;& enf;enf;&Sdav, tpkd;&aumif;jzpfav
radical onf tjrpfajrvSea f jymif;vJvo kd rl sm;[k tbd"mefu teuf (less government is better government) [k aqmifyk'fxkwfonf/
ay;xm;onf/ ]tjrpfajrvSef} [kqkdí olwkdYudk qkd&S,fvpfrsm;vkdY pD;yGm;a&;xJ tpd;k &0ifrpGuzf ufa&;udk a[maomolwu Ydk kd vDbmwD
xifp&m&Sdonf/ vuf0J0g'Drsm;vdkY xifp&m&Sdonf/ þokdYr[kwf orm; (libertarian) rsm;[k ac:onf/ olwu Ydk pD;yGm;a&;oDt&dk w
D pfcu k v
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Muay/ tu,fpifppfü olwo Ydk nf tpGe;f a&muf vuf,m0g'Drsm;vkYd ukid jf yKxm;onf/ xko d t D &dk rD mS wpfcw k nf;&Sad omjyifyÓPfjzifh n§Ed iId ;f rpkpnf;
ajym&rnf/ tb,faMumifq h adk omf t&if;&Sipf epfppfppfukd a&ra&m ay;bJ? vGwv f yfpmG aqmif&u G rf w
I aYdk Mumifh ay:ayguf[ef&adS om cJatmh(cf)
bJ umuG,v f o
kd rl sm;jzpfaomaMumifh jzpfonf/ t&if;&Sipf epfukd rl&if; (z½kzd &JupOfu h vsm;jzpfr)I rS? tvkyv f yk jf zpfaompepfay:Ekid o f nf[k qkjd cif;
ykHpHtwkdif; ppfppfjzpfapvdkMuonf/ jzpfonf/ vlawG ud, k vhf rf;ud, k of mG ;Muaomtcg ½Iy½f yI af xG;axG; jzpfay:zG,f
,ck t&if;&Sifpepfonf rlvyif&if;ykHpHtwkdif; r&Sdawmhay/ &So
d nf/ od&Yk mwGif þ½Iyaf xG;rIxrJ S tvkyjf zpfaompepf ay:vmEkid o f nf[k
[dk[ma&m,'D[ma&mjzifh npfax;aeNyD/ txl;ojzifh t&if;&Sifpepf qkdonf/
xJ? wpfenf;ajymvQif aps;uGux f J tpk;d &u0if½yI af eNy/D 0ifpu G zf uf
aeNy/D tpk;d &0ifpu G zf ufaeojzifh t&if;&Sipf epfonf rppfawmhay/ vDbmwDeifyg0g
aps;uGufonf rppfawmhay/ xkdYaMumifh t&if;&Sifpepfppfppf? aps; þoDt&dk u D yif? tpk;d &u aps;uGux f J 0ifa&mufpuG zf ufvQif pD;yGm;a&;
uGupf epfppfppfjzpf&ef tpk;d &udk t&if;&Sipf epfxrJ S (odrYk [kw)f aps; om,maomjzpfrI, bufnrD w I o Ydk nf tukeu
f armufur jzpfuek Ef idk o
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D pf&yfuv kd nf; vDbmwDorm;wku Yd azmfxw k Mf uonf/
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88 89
 vGwu f if;atmif BuKd ;yrf;rIukd vDbmwD (liberty) [k owfrw S o f nf/ usm;uef&rnf[q k o dk nf/ þtwkid ;f vnf; tpd;k &u0ifu,fco hJ jzif?h r[m
vGwv f yfr[ I ak jymEkid o
f nf/ xkaYd Mumifh orkid ;f wpfavQmufv;Hk wGif yg0g pD;yGm;ysuu f yfBu;D \ tvGeq f ;dk 0g;aom tEÅ&m,frS vGwo f mG ;onf/ t&if;&Sif
ESiv hf b D mwDwYdk tm;csi;f ,SONf yKd icf MhJ uavonf/ þ,SONf yKd iyf üJG rnfoYdk pepf emvefjyefxvmonf/ ppfp;D yGm;a&;jzifq h ufvufNy;D t&if;&Sipf epfukd
rnfyHk upm;Muoenf;qkad omtcsuo f nf tc&mus onf[q k o dk nf/ usm;uefay;cJh&onf/
vDbmwDorm;wkdYu yg0gESifh vDbmwDtm;NydKifyGJ[k wifpm; ,ck? tdr&f majraps;uGut f usyt f wnf;ESihf acs;aiGtusyt f wnf;wkYd
onf/ Ekid if aH &;abm*aA'ynm&Siw f u Ydk aps;uGuEf iS hf tpd;k & tm;NyKd if aygif;qkHNyD;? tar&duefwGif r[mpD;yGm;ysufuyfBuD; (Great Depression)
yGJtjzpf rSwf,lonf/ vDbmwDorm;wkdYu z&D;rwfuuf (free mar- qefqef uyfab;BuD;ay:vmonf/ yxrawmh z&D;rwfuufenf;jzifh 0kdif;
ket) taMumif;udk tav;ay;onf/ z&D;rwfuuf&SdvQif rwfuuf 0ef;ajz&Si;f Muonf/ z&D;rwfuufenf;qko d nfrmS tpd;k &0ifru,fbJ a'0gvD
yg0gonf tvGet f m;Bu;D onf/ b,favmufawmif tm;Bu;D oenf; cHí jyKwo f mG ;onfh &if;ES;D jrK§ yEf rHS aI umfyakd &;&Si;f Bu;D wku Yd ?kd tjcm; yk*v ¾ u d &if;ES;D
[kqv dk Qi?f pD;yGm;a&;udk zGNYH zKd ;atmifvyk Ef idk o f nf/ pD;yGm;a&;csed cf iG v f Qm jrK§ yEf rHS aI umfyakd &;&Si;f Bu;D wku Yd 0kid ;f u,f0ifu,faomenf; jzpfonf/ wpfenf;
wku Yd kd bufnaD tmifxed ;f Ekid o f nf/ tusyt f wnf;qku d v f Qif oleY nf; ajymvQif yk*¾vduaumfydka&;&Sif;BuD;wkdYu xkd;a&mif;xkd;tyfonfudk? tjcm;
ESio hf l ukEidk o f nf/ ud, k [ fh mud, k x f ed ;f Ekid af omtm; (self sustaining yk*v ¾ u d aumfyakd &;&Si;f wku Yd 0,f,v l ufcí H pcef;oGm;&efjzpfonf/ tjcm;
power) &Sdonf/ tjyifty usm;uefrIawG rvkday/ enf;wpfenf;rSm aiGjywfomG ;aomukrP Ü w D uYdk ?kd ukrPÜ cD si;f vufvn S ahf cs;iSm;
þvdk t,ltq (odrYk [kw)f aps;uGuyf g0gudk t<uif;rJh trTr;f Muaomenf; jzpfonf/
wifro I nf? 1929 txd [kwo f vdv k jkd zpfco hJ nf/ t'efprpf\ rjrif& þz&D;rwfuufenf;udk aumfyakd &;&Si;f wku Yd rvkyEf idk Mf uay/ tcsi;f csi;f
ao;aomvuf (invisible hand) tqkt d rdeo Yf nf? wkid x f yd üf wHceG f 0ifru,fEidk af omtcg A[db k PfEiS t hf pd;k &u? tvk;H t&if;ESihf NyKaH tm0iful
xlco hJ nf/ okaYd omf 1930 jynfEh pS üf r[mpD;yGm;ysuu f yfBu;D qku d af wmh &onf/ cyfMurf;Murf; ukid &f onf/ a'0gvDc&H aomukrP Ü w D u Ydk kd A[db k PfEiS hf
onf/ aps;uGuo f nf BuK;H 0g;ovdk tpGr;f rxufaMumif; bl;ay:ovdk b@ma&;0efBuD;XmewkdYu ypönf;xdef;rsm;tjzpf 0ifodrf;&onf/ tpkd;&u
ay:oGm;onf/ pD;yGm;a&;uyfqu dk of nfrmS aps;uGuyf suí f jzpfonf/ ypön;f xde;f tjzpf 0iford ;f aiGrsm; ykaH tmacs;iSm;&jcif;wko Yd nf? awmfawmfjyif;
aps;uGufü tpGrf;ukefí jzpfonf/ 1930 jynfhESpf r[mpD;yGm;ysuf xefonfhoabm&Sdí ]tpGef;a&muf 0ifa&mufpGufzufrI} (radical inter-
uyfBuD;udk tpdk;&u 0ifpGufzufí aps;uGufudk u,fwifcJh&onf/ vention) [kac:onf/
tpd;k &0ifru,fvQif t&if;&Sipf epfonf ,kid v f NJ yKd usEidk of nf/ þoabm z&D;rwfuufonf ed*kH;csKyfoGm;aMumif;udkjyonf/ z&D;
vk;H vk;H vsm;vsm; ,kid v f NJ yKd usroGm;onfw h idk af tmif? zufqpfpepfEiS hf rwfuufonf '@m&DjzpfomG ;NyjD zpfaMumif;udk jyonf/ z&D;rwfuufppfppfukd
qk&d , S v f pfpepfwYdk ay:vmonf/ zufppfpepfu ppfuakd &S;½Ií qk&d , S f vdck siaf om vDbmwDorm;rsm;u bmajymMurnfenf;/ tpGe;f a&mufqadk om
vpfpepfu t&if;&Sifpepf\tkwfjrpfudk ukdifvIyfonf/ pum; acwfpm;onf/
OD;csrf;at;
tpGef;a&mufESpfrsKd; tnTef; - NYT - Radicals for capitalism
þwGif t&if;&Sipf epfEiS yhf wfoufí pD;yGm;a&;oDt&dk t D opf
ay:onf/ ,if;oDtkd&Dudk NAdwdoQyg&*lBuD; avmh('f)arevfudef;u
jyKpak zmfxwk o f jzifh ]ude;f oDt&dk }D [kausmMf um;onf/ avmh('f)ude;f u
]t&if;&Sipf epfukd z&D;rwfuufjzifh tcgcyford ;f rxde;f csKyEf idk af wmhNy}D [k
azmfxw k v
f udk of nf/ t&if;&Sipf epfukd tpd;k &\ 0ifa&mufpu G zf ufrjI zifh
90 91
 b@ma&;*vdkb,fvdkufaZ;&Sif;
b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;ü pD;yGm;ysufuyfonf b@ma&;tusyftwnf;rSponf/ *vdkb,f
vkdufaZ;&Sif;onf b@ma&;*vdkb,fvkdufaZ;&Sif; (financial globaliza-
Ekid if jH cm;t&if;tES;D pD;0ifykH tion) txd tusK;H 0ifvmonf/ xka Yd Mumifh vuf&b dS Pfrsm; tusyt f wnf;?
acs;aiGtusyt f wnf;? aiG&mS ;yg;rItusyt f wnf; rnfaom? b@ma&;t
oufa&mufrI usyt f wnf;rsK;d pkw H o
Ydk nf b@ma&;*vdb k ,fvu dk af Z;&Si;f ya,m*aMumifh
vm;[k? ar;cGe;f xkwv f mMuonf/ b@ma&;*vdb k ,fvu kd af Z;&Si;f jzpfay:
„ armifomZHk vmvkYd b@ma&;tusyt f wnf; qku d o f nf[q k v dk Qi?f b@ma&;*vdb k ,f
vkdufaZ;&Sif;ü raumif;onfhvu©Pm ay:aeonf/
ynm&Siftrsm;u þvkdokH;oyfcsufukd jiif;qkdonf/ b@ma&;*vdk
tufqufwefzkd;ay: r,kH b,fvu dk af Z;&Si;f aMumifh ,ckvuf&u dS rÇmph ;D yGm;ysuu f ed ;f BuK&H onf r[kw/f
,aeY tar&duefwiG f jzpfysuaf eaom pD;yGm;ysuu f yfukd 'kw, d r[m b@ma&;*vdkb,fvkdufaZ;&Sif; aumif;usKd;awG trsm;BuD;&Sdonf/ ¤if;
pD;yGm;ysuu f yf[ak c:onf/ 1930 jynfEh pS f yxr r[mpD;yGm;ysuu f yf tay: tqk;d rjrifoif[ h k b@ma&; *vdb k ,fvu dk af Z;&Si;f udk umuG,Mf uonf/
(great depression) xuf ydkrkdqkd;0g;vdrfhrnf[k a[maeMuonf/ ,ckjzpfaeaom tar&duefb@ma&;pepf NyKd vrJ o I nf? 1997 ckEpS f
þ r[mpD;yGm;ysuu f yf\ txif&mS ;qk;H vu©PmrSm? a0g px&drpS í zGHYNzdK;qJEkdifiHwkdif;ü jzpfay:cJhaom b@ma&;pepf,kdifvJrIESifhvnf; rwl/
pawmh&S,f,maps;EIef;awG xkd;usqif;rIonf urÇmtESHY pawmh 1998 ckEpS f xGe;f opfqJ ½k&mS ;b@ma&;pepf ,kid v f rJ EI iS v hf nf; rwl/ tvGef
tdy(f cf)csed ;f rsm;qDoYkd ysUH ESo
YH mG ;jcif;jzpfonf/ þoabmMunfí h pD;yGm; wpfrx l ;l jcm;aeonf/ ,ckb@ma&;tusyt f wnf;wGif aiGaMu;tusyf t
ysuu f yfonf wpfurÇmvk;H csND y/D *vdb k ,fysuu f yfjzpfNy[ D k tuJjzwf wnf;(currency crisis)ray:? tpd;k &wku Yd a<u;NrrD qyfEidk af wmhonfjyóem
Muonf/ ray:(no government default)? taygifypön;f tmrcHxm;rItusyt f wnf;
pawmh&, S , f maps;EIe;f awG xk;d qif;rIqo dk nfrmS ? tufquf (no collateralized debt obligation) ray:? a<u;NrD ysuu f uG jf cif; zvS,rf I
aps;EIe;f wkt Yd ay: t,kt H Munfr&Sad wmhjcif;udk jyonf/ Loss of con- jyóemray:? no credit default snirp jyóemray:? ay:rnfvm;[k
fidence on asset value [kqo dk nf/ tufqufaps;EIe;f usqif;onf apmifhaeMuonf/
ESithf wl ya&mfygwD (property) tdr&f majraps;EIe;f wku Yd vnf; usqif; ,ckjzpfay:aom b@ma&;tusyftwnf;ü tcsrf;omqkH;EkdifiH
onf/ ukepf nfaps;EIe;f (commodities) taejzifh a&eHaps;EIe;f t&if ,ltuf(pf)rS ponf/ ,cif b@ma&;tusyftwnf;awGwkef;u zGHYNzdK;
usqif;vmonf/ tjcm; obm0&if;jrpftiftm;aps;EIe;f wkv Yd nf; us xGe;f opfqEJ idk if H (emerging economier) wkrYd S ponf/ tpysK;d &mae&m jcm;
&dyjf yaeonf/ pm;aomufuek &f u d m© aps;EIe;f wkYd us,rusukd Munfah eMu em;aeavNyD/ wpfae&mwnf;rS jrpfzsm;cHNyD;? tvm;wlaom xdckdufjcif;rsKd;
onf/ ,cktcsed x f d aiGaMu;tusyt f wnf;(currency crisis) ray: r[kwfawmhay/
ao;ojzifh uHaumif;aeao;onf[k ,lqMuonf/
tufqufaps;EIef;? ya&mfygwDaps;EIef;? ukefpnfaps;EIef;? aiG tifqlav;&Sif;
aMu;aps;EIe;f wkYd a&SUqifah emufqifh usqif;Ny[ D q k vdk Qi?f pD;yGm;ysuu f yf xkaYd Mumifh csr;f omaomEkid if w H rYdk S b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;udk zGNYH zKd ;qJ
onf jynfhpkHaompuf0kdif; (perfect circle) xJa&mufNy[ D q k &dk rnf/ Ekid if w
H u
Ydk ud, k Ehf idk if o
H Ykd rul;pufatmif (vQypf pfp;D rI tyl"gwf rul;atmif)
þtxd a&muf,ra&mufMunfah eMuonf/ [efYwm;&ef oifh,roifh pOf;pm;vmMuonf/ insulation [k ac:onf/

92 93
þudpöwGif t&if;tESD;pD;qif;rIudk pOf;pm;onf/ umuG,f&ef, [efYwm;&ef
pOf;pm;onfEiS hf rdrw
(capital flows) wku
d EYdk ikd if t
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H wGi;f odYk 0ifa&mufp;D 0ifaeaom t&if;tES;D pD;0ifrI
Y wfcsKycf s,&f rnf/ 4if;udk capital control [kac: pD;yGm;ysuu f yfu
onf/ xkaYd Mumifh t&if;tES;D pD;0ifru I kd uGyu f &J efBuq H rIonf vuf&jdS zpfay:
aom b@ma&;tusyt
Muonf/
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f uYdk okawoeESpcf k jyK
usq;kH jcif;ukjd y
t&if;tES;D pD;0ifro I nf? 2007 ckEpS üf a':vm wpfx&Dv, D zH ;dk ausmcf o hJ nf/
þrQ Ekid if jH cm;t&if;tES;D pD;qif;rIaMumif?h vuf&b dS @ma&; tusyt f wnf;
„ armifpl;prf;
onf? þEkdifiHwkdYtay: rnfodkYxdckdufEkdifoenf;[k pkHprf;azmfjyxm;onf/
0ifaiGenf;ESihf 0ifaiGtvwfpm;Ekid if w H o Ydk nf? vuf&b dS @ma&; tusyf pawmhtdyfpfcsdef;"e
twnf;aMumifh 20 %qk;d usK;d ay: xdcu dk Ef idk of nf/ aiGaMu; tusyt f wnf; vuf&&dS ifqidk af e&aom tar&duefp;D yGm;ysuu f yfonf r[mAsL[m
(currency crisis)ay:vQif 30% xdcu dk Ef idk o f nf/ b@ma&;ESihf aiGaMu;t avhvma&;yg&*lwt Ydk wGuf av;av;eufeufo;Hk oyf pdppfjy&ef tcGihf
usyt f wnf;aMumifh jynfya<u;Nrq D yf&efysuu f u
G rf I (odrYk [kw)f tifzav; tvrf;aumif;yif/ tokH;vnf;jyKMuonf/ ]orkdif;\ed*kH;}usrf;udk
&Sif;'Pf wpfESpf 20 % cH&rnf/ a&;ol z&efppfzu l , l mrm;u tar&duefb@ma&;pepf ,kid v f NJ yKd us
ukeof , G &f mü Ekid if jH cm;t&if;tES;D awG t&rf;0ifjcif;udk &wemykq H udk f rIukd implosion qkad om a0g[m&jzifh tuJjzwfonf/ implosionrSm
onf (Bonanza) [kac:onf/ þokdY &wemykHqkdufvmaom EkdifiHrsm;tzkdY twGif;bufodkY uRHí NydKqif;jcif;udk &nfnTef;onf/
b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;\ *,ufEiS zhf t d m;udk cHpm;&rnfjzpfonf/ þodq Yk dk pawmh&, S , f maps;uGuw f iG f 0,fa&mif;vkyaf eorQ tufquf
vQif EkdifiHjcm;t&if;tESD; t0ifenf;onfhEkdifiHwkdYtzkdY b@ma&; tusyft wkdYudk pawmhtdyfpfcsdef;"e (stock-exchange wealth) [kac:onf/
wnf;tEÅ&m,frS vGwrf nf[k {uefrajymEkid af y/ Ekid if jH cm;t&if;tES;D t0if &S,, f m aps;awGx;dk uspu dk q
f if;&m b,favmufawmif txdemoGm;
enf;aom Ekid if w H v Ydk nf; b@ma&;tusyt f wnf; 'PfcpH m;&rnf/ rsm;rsm; oenf;[kqv dk Qif wpfaeYwnf; a':vmwpfx&DvszH ;dk qk;H ½I;H oGm;onf/
pm;pm;awmhr[kwf 14%ESifh 24%Mum; xdckdufEkdifzG,f&Sdonf/ þrQq;Hk ½I;H epfemí bPfBu;D awGjyKwu f ek af omtcg tar&dueftpk;d &
'kwd,okawoeu EkdifiHjcm;t&if;tESD;pD;qif;rI ½kwfjcnf;&yfwefY u a':vm 700 bDvD,HtokH;jyKí 0ifu,f&efqkH;jzwfonf/
oGm;vQif xdcu dk rf o I nfajymif;jyefjzpfrnf/ qif;&JaomEkid if w H t
Ydk xd oufom ,ck r[mAsL[mavhvma&;ynm&Sif z&efppfzlul,mrm; u
NyD;? tv,ftvwf0ifaiGEkdifiHwkdYu txdtemqkH;jzpfrnf/ csrf;omaom tar&duefb@ma&;pepftwGi;f NyKd usrEI iS yhf wfoufí xduidk v f rYkd &
Ekid if wH Ydk uHaumif;oGm;rnf/ t&if;tES;D pD;0ifrI ½kwjf cnf;&yfomG ;vQif v,f aomoufa&mufrIudk t"duOD;pm;ay;Munfhonf/ þxdukdifvdkY r&
orm;ydck &H rnf/ csr;f omol ydck sr;f omoGm;rnf/ qif;&JaomEkid if w H Ydk ab;vGwf aomoufa&mufro I nf tar&dum;\trSww f qH yd bf &Ji;f (America's
rnf/ þonfwkdYum; vuf&Sdtar&duefb@ma&; tusyftwnf;ESifh ywf Brand) udpjö zpfonf/ b@ma&;twGi;f uRu H sNyKd qif;rIonf tar&d
oufNyD;? urÇmhbPfynm&SifwkdY\ okH;oyfcsuftMurf; jzpfonf/ um;\ wefc;dk MoZm tmPmyg0gwku Yd kd b,favmuf xdcu dk o
f enf;[k
armifomZHk ppfaq;Munfjh cif; jzpfonf/ {&mrtusyt f wnf;qku d v
f Qif b&Ji;f udk
tnTef; - The Economist ppfaq;&NyD/
94 95
 pepfAD;&Sif;wpfck NydK qHjzL w&m;ao
tar&dum;\ b&Ji;f udk r[mAsL[mavhvma&;ynm&Siw f uYdk America z&efppfzu l , l m;rm;u vuf&b dS @ma&;tusyt f wnf;onf acwf
Inc. [k ac:a0:onf/ ,cktar&duefb@ma&;qkwu f yfonf tar&dum; wpfacwfukd ed*;Hk csKyaf ponf[k axmufjyonf/ ¤if;acwfrmS tcGet f wkwf
tifh\ usqkH;cef;udk xif[yfonf[k aumufcsufqGJonf/ ,ckuyfwGif avQmhjcif;(tax-cut)ESifh uGyfuJxdef;odrf;rIavQmhcsjcif;(deregulation)wkdY
bPfawG trsm;tjym;NyKd onf/ aumfyakd &;&Si;f awG tawmfrsm;rsm;NyKd onf/ jzpfMuonf/ ,ckjyKwo f mG ;aombPfwu Ydk kd 0ifa&mufu,fwif&ojzifh tcGef
b@ma&;0efaqmifrI tifpwDusL;&Si;f awGNyKd onf/ þtNyKd wu Ydk bmjyoenf; avQmhacwfESifh pnfrsOf;uGyfuJrIavQmhacwf ed|dwHoGm;NyD/ 1929-31 ckESpf
[kqkdvQif t&if;&Sifpepf\ wpfpkHwpf&maom AD;&Sif; (contain vision of r[mpD;yGm;ysufuyfBuD;onfvnf; tvGefxkxnfBuD;rm;av&m 'Drkdu&uf
capitalism) ,kdifvJ NydKusoGm;jcif;udk jyonf/ ygwDu a&G;aumufyw JG iG f tEkid &f &So
d nf/ ,ck r[mpD;yGm;ysuu f yfBu;D onf
yxrAD;&Si;f onf or®wa&*ifacwfü acwfpm;cJah om tueft Y owf tvGefxkxnfBuD;rm;av&m 1929-31 ckESpfuuJhokdYyif tar&duefor®w
pnf;rsOf;uGyfuJrIwkdYudk z,f&Sm;avQmhjzwfypf&rnfqkdaom AD;&Sif;jzpfonf/ a&G;aumufyüJG 'Dru dk &ufwyYdk if tEkid &f OD;rnf[k z&efppfzu l , l mrm;u a[m
deregulation [kac:onf/ ,ck þAD;&Sif;onf ,dkifvJoGm;onf/ 'kwd, udef;xkwfvkdufonf/
AD;&Si;f onf tar&duef'rD u dk a&pDyo Hk P²mefonf Ekid if t H m;vk;H twGuf erlem tar&duefb&Jif;\ ta&;BuD;aomtpdwftykdif;wpf&yfonf 'Drkd
,lp&mvrf;jzpfonf/ þvrf;onf pD;yGm;a&;pnfyif0ajymwkd;wufrIudk ua&pDjzpfonf/ 'Dyvdak rpDt&yfom;vlt Y zGtYJ pnf;? vGwv f yfaom rD', D m
tmrcHonf/ urÇmhpepfudkvnf; wnfNidrfaponf[kqkdaom tcsufjzpf paom tkid 'f , D mwko Yd nf? ,cifu tjiif;yGm;zG,rf &Scd ahJ omfvnf; ,ck tjiif;
onf/ tar&duef\ vpfb&,f'rD u dk a&pDyo Hk @mefonf Ekid if t H rsm;a&G;cs,f yGm;p&mjzpfvmonf/ tar&duefajymaom'Dru dk a&pDonf 0ifa&mufpu G zf uf
oifhonf[kqkdcJhonf/ 'Drkdua&pDjyefYyGm;a&;udk tar&duef\ taysmhxnf rIEiS hf wnfqt J pk;d &udjk zKwcf sa&;? ajymif;vJa&;wku Yd n kd eT ;f aom vQKUd 0Supf um;
yg0g (soft power) tjzpf owfrw S cf o hJ nf/ [k em;vnfvmMuonf/ tar&duefajymaom'Dru dk a&pDonf ysupf ;D oGm;NyD
tar&duef\wefz;dk ESiMhf oZmonf a':vmESiw hf ifu h m;wko Yd m r[kw/f [k z&efppfzlul,mrm;u axmufjyonf/
tar&duef'rD u dk a&pDyo Hk P²mefvnf; jzpfonf[k qkcd o hJ nf/ ,ck þAD&iS ;f udk tar&duefypHk pH ;D yGm;a&;onf uyfab;Bu;D xJqo JG iG ;f onf/ xkaYd Mumifh
vuf&Sdb@ma&;uyfBuD;u NzdKcsvkdufjyefonf/ rNydKoGm;onfhwkdifatmif w½kwyf pHk pH ;D yGm;a&;ESihf ½k&mS ;ykpH pH ;D yGm;a&;wko Yd nf erlemjzpfvm rvm;[k a0zef
tawmfemrnfysuo f mG ;onf/ tar&dueft&if;&Sipf epfuk d aumif;bdKG it f &if;&Sif ppfaMumMunf&h ef jzpfvmawmhonf/ pD;yGm;a&;Am;&Si;f csi;f ,SONf yKd iv f mMuNy;D
pepf[kwGifcJh&m? urÇmhpD;yGm;a&;udk zGHYNzdK;atmif armif;cJhaomtif*sif[lí tar&duef? w½kwf? ½k&Sm;ponfwkdY NydKifvmMuonf/ pD;yGm;uyfab;BuD;udk
vnf; ,lqcJo h nf/ ,ck þoabm emrnfysuNf y/D urÇmph ;D yGm;a&;tif*siu f taMumif;jyKí tpk;d &u@udk rvGrJ aoGw;dk csUJ vm&aomtcg tpk;d &u@udk
EkdifiHwkdif;\ pD;yGm;a&;wkdYudk tol&macsmufxJqGJcsaeNyD;? tpdk;&0ifa&muf opfopfviG v f iG jf yefvnfzpYJG nf;&ef vdv k m onf/ ,ckvuf&üdS tpk;d &ykid ;f \
rpGuzf ufa&;rEÅmefjzifh tpk;d &onf pD;yGm;a&;udk 0ifa&mufrxde;f odr;f cJah y/ pDrcH efcY rJG yI idk ;f onf aiGtiftm;rvkaH vmuf? ya&mfzuf&iS ef ,frqef? pdw"f mwf
vTwaf y;xm;onf/ ,ckawmh uGyu f x J ed ;f odr;f rIuif;rJrh aI Mumifh {&mruyfBu;D awGusaeovdk &Sdaeonf/
qkduf&NyD/ wpfBudrfwpfcgu opfvGifvef;qef;onfqkdaom tkdif'D,m(fresh
Ekid if aH &;ydik ;f ü tar&duefpyGeq f mvkyaf om 'Dru dk a&pDwo Ydk nf vrf; idea)wkdYonf? aemufykdif;ü qHjzLaeaomw&m;ao(hoary dogmas)awG
acsmfaeMuonf/ rwnfrNidrf ',drf;',kdifjzpfukefMuonf/ pD;yGm;a&;ykdif;ü jzpfukefykHudk? ,ckb@ma&;NydKvJrIu ½kyf&Sif½kdufjyaeonf[k z&efppfzlul
b@ma&;pepf,idk v f o J mG ;onf/ xkEd pS cf suaf Mumifyh if tar&duefb&Ji;f onf ,mrm; u a0zefokH;oyfjyonf/
usqif;aeNyD[k aumufcsufqGJonf/ armifpl;prf;
tnTef; - Newsweek
96 97
 jzpfí csed cf iG v f Qm jyefwnfhatmifvyk af &; Rebalancing onf
tc&musonf [k ,lqonf/ xdaYk Mumifh pD;yGm;ysuu f yf ukonfh
ukxHk;rSm csdefcGifvQmawG jyefrSefatmif tcsKd;tpm;awG jyefrSef
atmif jyKvyk af y;a&;om jzpfonf[q k Nkd y;D toH;k tEIe;f wdu Yk v
kd nf;
xGio f nf/ tcsKUd u Adjustment jyefnj§d cif;[k oH;k onf/ tcsKUd u
Realignment tvdkif;rifhnd§jcif;? (odkUr[kwf_ Rebalancing
csed cf iG n
f j§d cif;[ko;kH onf/ tcsKUd u pD;yGm;a&;tusyt f wnf;qdu k f
onfqo kd nfrmS oHpOfysuo f mG ;onfo h abmjzpfí Fine Tuning
oHpOfnd§jcif;[koHk;onf/
tcsKUd ynm&Siw f u
Ydk tiftm;wdu Yk kd jyefcsed f jyefzUJG &mü wnf
NidrfrIvnf; t"dujzpfap&rnf[q k o kd nf/ wnfNird rf rI mS ruú½kd
wnfNird rf I (Macrostability) u ydkíta&;BuD;onf/ xkdYaMumifh
pD;yGm;a&;ynm&Siw f Ukd u ruú½w kd nfNird rf t I aMumif; wpfavQmuf
vHk;ajymvmcJhMuonf/

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vQif acwfrrDawmh[k qdkvmNyD/ taMumif;rSm vuf&SdawGUae
„ OD;csrf;at; &aom b@ma&;tusyt f wnf;onf t&if;&Sipf epf\tkwjf rpf
pD;yGm;a&;tusyftwnf;wpfckqdkufvQif ukxHk;ESifhywfoufí wpfckvHk;udk udkifaqmifhypfaeaomaMumifh jzpfonf/ xdUk aMumifh
aqmify'k w f pfcjk zpfap? onfx h ufyí kd jzpfap ay:wwfonf/ Fine ukx;kH ay:vpD\&nf&, G cf suof nf ruú½w kd nfNird rf u
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Tuning todnd§jcif;/ Macro Balance ruú½dkrQajc/ Macro r[kwaf wmhNy/D t&if;&Sipf epfukd b,fvkd u,fwifrvJ[í l jzpf
Statility ruú½dkwnfNidrfrIwdkU[lí jzpfMuonf/ orm;½dk;usenf; vmNy/D wpfenf;ajym&vQif ay:vpD&nfreS ;f csuo f nf ruú½kd wnf
t& pD;yGm;a&;udk ruú½dk Macro ESirhf u kd ½ú kd Micro [lí cGJonf/ Nird rf I Macroeconomics Stability rSpepfukd u,fwifaom Save
ruú½rkd mS cE¨mud, k t
f Bu;D tpm;ydik ;f udk &nfneT ;f í? rdu k ½ú rkd mS ti,f the SystemodkU ajymif;vJoGm;jyD/
ydkif;tao;pdwfydkif;udk &nfnTef;onf/ ruú½w kd nfNird rf o
I nf a&wdjk zpfonf/ pepfuu kd ,fwifa&;
xdUk aMumifh pD;yGm;a&;tusyt f wnf;qdu k v
f Qif ruú½ykd ikd ;f udk qdo k nfrmS a&wdv k nf;[kw?f a&&Snv f nf;[kwjf zpfonf/ a&wd-k
ukrmS vm;? odUk wnf;r[kwf rdu k ½ú ykd ikd ;f udk ukrmS vm;[k ar;cGe;f ay: a&&Snf pepfESpfrsdK;vHk;ygonf/ pepfqdkonfrSm t&if;&Sifpepfudk
cJo
h nf/ rsm;pGmaom abm*aA'ynm&Siw f Udk u ruú½ykd ikd ;f udk OD;pm; qdv k o kd nf/ 1929 ckEpS f r[mpD;yGm;ysuu f yfBu;D ü t&if;&Sipf epf
ay;NyD;uk&ef aqmfMoMuonf/ ,dik v f NJ yKd usvrd rhf nf[k arQmv f ifch MhJ uonf/ t&if;&Sipf epfaoNy/D
pD;yGm;a&;tusyt f wnf;qdo k nfrmS [efcsuyf suo f mG ;jcif;? Capitalism is Dead qdkaom qdkif;bkwfwdkUyif ay:cJhonf/
rQajcysuo f mG ;jcif;? csed cf iG v
hf Qm apmif;oGm;jcif;wdUk udk &nfneT ;f jcif; ]t&if;&Sipf epfaoNy}D qdak om qdik ;f bkwaf wGaxmifNy;D e,l;a,muf
98 99
 wpfcGifü aps;onfwdkUu aps;a&mif;cJhMuonf/ oGufoGufvnf þb@ma&;tusyftwnf;onf
atmif a&mif;cJhMuonf/ pepfwpfckvHk;udk udkifvIyfonf jzpfav&m
qdkif;bkwfuawmh ]t&if;&SifpepfaoNyD}? odkUaomf aps;
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axmufxm;Ny;D t&if;&Sipf epf\ pGr;f yum;udt k xifrao;&JMuay/ udkifwG,f&ef vdkvmonf/
ppfat;acwf ü t&if;&Sipf epfonf qd&k , S vf pfpepfEiS hf xdyw f ukd f xkdhaMumifU b@ma&;uyfonf pepfESifUqdkifonf/
&ifqikd w f ;kd onf/ vuf0o J rm;wdUk u t&Si;f &Sipf epfEiS hf qd&k ,S v f pf pepfwpfckvHk;tjrifjzifU ajz&Sif;&rnf/
,SONf yKd i&f m wGi?f t&if;&Sipf epf,ikd v f NJ yKd usomG ;rnf[k wGucf o hJ nf/
ol w d k U twG u f r S m ;oG m ;onf / wu,f j zpf v monf u vm&jyD/
qdk&S,fvpfpepf NydKusoGm;onf/ t&if;&SifpepfrNydK/ 1929 ckESpf r[mpD;yGm;a&;ysufuyfonf aMu;eef;acwf wGif
,ckb@ma&;ysuu f yfBu;D üvnf; t&Si;f &Sipf epf\ tem jzpfymG ;jcif;jzpfonf/ 2008 ckEpS pf ;D yGm;ysuu f yfonf tifwmeufacwfwiG f
*wfuMH ur®mudk pd;k &dro f nf/ odUk aomf ,dik v f NJ yKd usomG ;onftxd jzpf yGm;jcif;jzpfonf/ xkdUaMumifh rdkuú½dk? ruú½dk&IawmifhrS &IUjrifí
awmh rarQmv f if&h MJ uay/ tb,faMumifq h akd omf qd&k ,S v
f pfpepf tajz&Smjcif;onf tifwmeufacwf\jyóemudk aMu;eef;acwf\ukx;kH jzifh
udk NzKd cscahJ om t&if;&Sipf epfukd txifrao;&JaomaMumifh jzpf uko&ma&muf onf[k axmufjyvmMuonf/
onf/ vlom;wDxiG af om pD;yGm;pepfwUkd xJwiG f t&if;&Sipf epfonf tifwmeufacwf\ t"dupGr;f yum;rSmab;tEÅ&m,fwu Ykd kd qifyh mG ;
taumif;qHk;[k ajymp&mjzpfvmonf/ jzefUxGuq f efUxkwEf ikd jf cif;jzpfonf/ To Spread Risks [kac:onf/ ]at}u
]bD}xH tdraf ygifonf/ ]bD}uxyfqifNh y;D þtaygifypön;f udk ]pD}xH xyfaygif
aMu;eef;rStifwmeuf onf/ þoabmrSm ab;tEÅ&m,f (risk) udk wpfO;D wnf;usKH ;cH&efr[kwb f ?J
þodkYjzpfygvsuf t&if;&Sifpepfudk u,fwifavmh[k t tjcm;olyg a&mcH&efjzefx Y w k v
f u kd of nfoh abm jzpfonf/ t&if;&Sipf epf\
b,faMumifah tmf&efvykd goenf;/ qd&k , S v f pfpepfuykd if tEdik , f l b@ma&;ydik ;f qef;opfwx D iG rf rI mS ab;tEÅ&m,fwUkd udk enf;rsK;d pHjk zifh t&Snf
xm;aomt&if;&Sipf epfu ,ckvt kd usyt f wnf;Mu;D udk cHEikd &f nf Bu;D ta0;Bu;D jzefx Y w k Ef ikd jf cif;jzpfonf/ ab;tEÅ&m,fwu Ykd kd qifuh J qifu h J
&SEd ikd o
f nf/ xdUk aMumifh ]t&if;&Sipf epfukd u,favmh} [laom aqmif jzefYxkwfojzifh &Snfvsm; tvSrf;a0;oGm;aomtcg rl&if;yif&if;tpESifh
yk'o f nf jyL;wl;jyw J EJ ikd v
f eG ;f onf[k a0zefonf/ ,ck b@ma&; rsufjcnfjywfoGm;awmhonf/
pepftusyt f wnf;onf acs;aiGut kd ajccHonf/ t&if;&Sipf epf xdkrS b@ma&;tusyftwnf; ay:onf/ þb@ma&;tusyft
Bu;D xGm;vmaomtcg acs;aiGonf t&if;&Sipf epftwGuf atmuf wnf;onf pepfwpfcv k ;kH udk udik v f yI o
f nfjzpfav&m? tajzukx;kH onf pepf
pD*sifjzpfonf/ b@ma&;pepf,dkifvJ NydKusoGm;vQif t&if;&Sif wpfcv k ;kH udk udik w
f ,G &f efvv kd monf/ xkUd aMumifh b@ma&;uyfonf pepfEiS hf
pepfonf atmufpD*sifjywfNyD; aooGm;Edkifonf/ tenf;qHk; qdik o
f nf/ pepfwpfcv k ;kH tjrifjzifh ajz&Si;f &rnf/ þtwGuaf qmify'k o f nf
jzLzwfjzLa&mfjzpfNy;D owdvpfomG ;Edik o f nf/ þodYk rjzpf&ef tcsed rf D ]t&if;&Sipf epfukd u,favmh} [lí jzpfonf/ rdu k ½ú ekd nf;? ruú½ekd nf;wdUk rS pepf
uk&jcif;onfyif pepfudku,fwifjcif; jzpfonf/ wpfckvHk;jcHKenf;odkY ul;ajymif;jyD/
zGUH NzKd ;rIr&ifu
h suaf o;cifu rdu k ½ú kd (Micro) udt
k "duxm;& OD;csrf;at;
onf/ &ifu h suv f maomtcg ruú½(kd Macro)udk t"duxm;onf/
,cktqifh (tifwmeufacwf)üpepf (System) udt k "duxm; Ref; Economic

100 101
 jrefrmEkdifiHwGif
obm0"mwfaiGY ESifhvkyfief;tcsKdY wkdYwGif
urÇmhpD;yGm;ysufuyf EkdifiHjcm;wkduf½kduf&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIwkdY &Sdonf/
xkdvkyfief;wkdYrS t&if;tESD;awG pGefY cGmrvm;?
jrefrmukd b,fvdk*,uf½dkuf t&if;tESD;awG xyfrxnfhawmhbJ &yfxm;rvm;ponfjzifh
t&if;tESD;udk usKHYrnfYtEÅ&m,fwkdYudk owdxm;&ef&Sdonf/
„ armifpl;prf;

pD;yGm;ysufuyf EkdifiHESifh bmrQroufqkdifovdkjzpfaeonf/ jrefrmEkdifiHü pawmhtdyfpfcsdef;

tar&duefb@ma&; tusyftwnf;onf wjcm; EkdifiHrsm; r&Sdjcif;aMumifhvnf; t&if;tESD;aps;uGuf tusyftwnf;onf jrefrmodkY
odkY ykHpHtrsKd;rsKd;jzifh ul;pufukefaomtcg þpD;yGm; ysufuyf *,uf½u dk pf &m taMumif;odyrf &S/d pawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f r&So
d nfrmS t&if;tES;D
onf jrefrmEkdifiHokdY rnfodkY*,uf½kdufcwfEkdifygoenf;[k aps;uGuf tm;aysmhaMumif;udkjyonf/
pdk;&drfwBuD; tawmfar;Muonf/ a,bk,sajymvQif jrefrmh
pD;yGm;a&;onf tar&duefpD;yGm;a&;ESifh tcsdwftqufr&Sd tufzf'DtkdifESifh pawmhtdyfcsdef;
oavmufenf;yg;í xdckdufrIr&SdEkdif[k qkdEkdifonf/ t&if;tESD;qkd&mü tajccHtm;jzifh ESpfrsKd;&Sdonf/
tcsdwftqufqkdonfrSm - (1) ayghzv dk , D t dk &if;tES;D [kac:aom tpk&, S ,f mwkw Yd iG f 0,fa&mif;
(1) ukefypönf;pD;qif;rItcsdwftquf/ vkyfonfh &if;ESD;jrKyfESHrIrsKd;jzpfjcif;ESifh
(2) t&if;tESD;pD;qif;rItcsdwftquf (2) xkwv f yk rf v I yk if ef;wkw Yd iG f wku d ½f u dk &f if;ES;D jrKyEf rHS jI yKvyk af om FDI
(3) tvkyform;pD;qif;rItcsdwftquf wkdYjzpfMuonf/
wku Yd kd t"du &nfneT ;f onf/ xkaYd Mumifh vuf&jdS zpfay:aeaom b@ma&;tusyt f wnf; wpfenf;
yxrtcsw d t f qufjzpfaom t&if;tES;D pD;qif;rIwiG f ajym&vQif t&if;tES;D aps;uGut f usyt f wnf;onf vufiif;tm;jzifh ayghzdk
jrefrmESihf tar&duef tjyeftvSejf rK§ yEf rHS I r&So d avmuf enf; vD,&dk if;ES;D jrK§ yEf rHS I (pawmh&, S ,f m0,fa&mif;vkyjf cif;)udk csucf si;f vufiif;
yg;onf/ jrefrmtpkd;& &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI Government Fund xdcu dk Ef idk o
f nf/ jrefrmEkid if w H iG f pawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f r&So d jzifh þtykid ;f udk ouf
Investment rsKd;r&Sday/ yk*¾vduykdif &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIüvnf; a&mufrIr&Sd[k ajymvdkY&onf/
tar&duefoo Ydk mG ;Ny;D &if;ES;D jrK§ yEf MHS ujcif;rsK;d rMum;zl;ay/ þodYk xkdYaMumifh pOf;pm;p&mwpfcsufom usefonf/ b@ma&;tusyft
jzpf&onfrSmvnf; tar&dueftpkd;&u jrefrmEkdifiHtay: wnf;onf FDI Ekid if jH cm;wku d ½f u dk &f if;ES;D jrK§ yEf rHS uI kd xdcu kd Ef idk rf vm;[lí jzpf
pD;yGm;ydwfqkdYxm;aomaMumifhjzpfonf/ onf/ jrefrmEkid if w H iG f obm0"mwfaiGEY iS v hf yk if ef;tcsKUd (Oyrm-[dw k ,fvyk f
tar&duü &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHolwkdYuvnf; jrefrmEkdifiHudk ief;)wkw Yd iG f Ekid if jH cm;wku d ½f udk &f if;ES;D jrK§ yEf rHS w I Ydk &So
d nf/ xkv d yk if ef;wkrYd S t&if;
a&Smifxm;Muonf/ þodt Yk m;jzifh tpk;d &ykid ?f yk*v ¾ u d ykid f &if; tES;D awG pGecYf mG rvm;? (okrYd [kw)f t&if;tES;D awG xyfrxnfah wmhbJ &yfxm;
ESD;jr§KyfESHrI pD;qif;rIr&Sdí? ,ckjzpfaeaom bPfrsm;tusyf rvm;ponfjzifh t&if;tES;D udk usKUH rnft h EÅ&m,fwu Ydk kd owdxm;&ef &So d nf/
twnf;? t&if;tES;D aps;uGut f usyt f wnf;wko Yd nf jrefrm ayghzkdvD,kd&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIydkif;ü oufa&mufrIr&SdEkdifaomfvnf;
102 103
 tufzf'Dtkdif&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIydkif;ü oufa&mufrI&SdEkdifonf/ ayghzv
kd ,
D kd tcsw
d t
f qufr&S[ d k vH;k vH;k vsm;vsm; rajymEdik af y/ oG,0f u
kd í
f
tjcm;wpfzuf pOf;pm;&efvnf;&Sdonf/ jrefrmEkdifiHxJ 0if jzpfap? wpfqifhcHjzpfap csdwfqufrIawG&Sdonf/
a&mufvkyfudkifaom tufzf'DtkdifwkdYonf? jrefrmü pawmh
tdypf cf sed ;f r&Sí
d rSwyf wHk ifrxm;Muapumrl? jrefrmhteD;tem; avbmtdyfruf
tdrfeD;em;csif; pawmhtdyfpfcsdef;wkdYü pm&if;oGif;csdwfquf ,ck wdu
k ½f ukd xf o
d nfh tpdwt f ydik ;f rSm? Edik if jH cm;odUk oGm;a&muf tvkyf
xm;Muonf/ jrefrmht&if;tES;D aps;uGuEf iS hf tquftoG,f vkyMf uaom jrefrmtvkyo f rm;wdUk jzpfMuonf/t&if;tES;D ydik ;f xdcu kd yf ukH kd
r&Sad pumrl? tdref ;D em;csi;f t&if;tES;D aps;uGuw f EYdk iS hf tcsw
d f txufwGif&Sif;jyNyD;jzpfonf/
tquf&SdMuonf/ puFmyl? xkdif;? rav;&Sm;? a[mifaumif? avbmydkif;rS t&ifxdNyD; tdyfpfydkYydkif;u aemufrSvdkufvmEdkifonf/
w½kww f idk af yESihf *syef pawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f wkEYd iS hf tcsw d t f quf jrefrmhtdyfpfydkUrsm;jzpfMuaom oD;ESHukef? om; ig;ESifh opf? &mbm? obm0
&SdMuonf/ "mwfaiGUponfh tajccHuek yf pön;f (primary products) wdu Yk kd ul;pufxcd u kd f
rSmvm;[k apmifhMunfhae&efvdkonf/ tajz&Sm&mü rSefajymif;topf(new
wpfqifUcHcsdwfqufjcif; lens)wdjYk zifh Munf½ h &I efvNkd y/D ,ck pD;yGm;ysuu f yfü z&D;rm;uwf(free market)
qkv d o
kd nfrmS jrefrmEkid if &H tdS ufz'f t D idk w
f o Ydk nf? jynfy&Sd ed*;kH csKyo
f mG ;onf/ rm;uwfEiS u hf yG u f rJ w
I MYkd um; rQajctopf (new bakance
pawmhtdyfpfcsdef; wpfenf;ajymvQif ayghzkdvD,kdtpk&S,f,m between market and regulation) wnfaqmuf&ef vdkvmonf/ tpdk;&
aps;uGufESifh tcsdwftquf&SdMuonf/ xdkUaMumifh jynfyESifh t&if;&Sipf epfay:onf/ ukrP Ü w D uYkd ukd ,fwif&ef xdu k rk P
Ü w D u Ykd kd odr;f ydu
k zf Ukd
csw
d q f ufxm;aom tufz'f t D ikd w f o Ykd nf? þpawmhtyd pf cf sed ;f vdvk monf/ Bail-out with Ownership [kqv kd monf/ þonfyif tpd;k &
wdkUü &S,f,maps;rsm; usqif;onfh'Pfudkvnf; tenf;ESifh t&if;&Sifpepfjzpfonf/
trsm; cHpm;&zG,&f o dS nf/ tufz'f t D ikd o
f nf ayghzv kd , D kd aps; t&if;&Sipf epfonfyif? Am;&Si;f topfoYkd ajymif;vJomG ;NyD jzpfav&m?
uGufrSwpfqifh tusyftwnf;\'Pfudk cHpm;&Edkifonf/ ukxHk;ESifhtajzwdkYuvnf; orm;½dk;uswdkYjzifh r&NyD/
a[mifaumif? pifumyl? xdkif;? *syef pawmhtdyfcsdef; armifpl;prf;
wdUk ü &S,, f m aps;uGuNf yKd usjcif;onf tufz'f t D ikd w f u Ykd vkd nf; Ref; The Economist
xdcu kd Ef ikd of nf/ xdUk aMumifh tufz'f t D ikd &f if;ES;D jrK§ yEf oHS w l Ukd u
olwdkY\ &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIwdkUudk umuG,f&ef tumt&H(hedge)
vkyrf vm;/ wpfenf;ajym&vQif vQypf pfp;D jcif;udk wm;jcif;rsKd ;
(insulate) vkyr f vm;qdak om tcsuu f ta&;Bu;D vmonf/
ausmf0if;
&S,f,maps;uGufNydKusrIaMumifh tufzf'DtdkifwdkYudk rxdcdkuf
yg[k {uefajym&ef cufaeonf/ taMumif;rl tufz'f t
onf jrefrmpawmhtyd cf sed ;f wdUk ESirhf wlb?J tjcm;aom pawmh
D ikd w f Ykd urÇmYtpDtpÍfopf&SmyHkawmf
tdyfcsdef;wdkYESifh qufcsdwfxm;aomaMumifh jzpfonf/ In Search of
jrefrmEdik if H tufz'f t
D ikd Ef iS hf ayghzv kd ,D kd &if;ES;D jrK§ yEf rHS w I Ukd WORLD ORDER
csdwfqufyHkrSm wpfqifhcHjzpfonf/ jrefrmtufzf'DtdkifESifh
3100450506

104 105
 Special Feature
]w½k w f E S i f h t ar&d u ef
b,f v d k q uf p yf
aeMuovJ}
0ef B uD ; csKyf 0rf u sm;aygif
ESpfaygif;rsm;pGmtwGif; yxrqHk;tBudrftjzpf
w½kwf0efBuD;csKyf 0rfusm;aygifonf taemufwdkif;pme,fZif;wpfpk\
vlawGYar;jref;rIudk vufcHajzMum;cJUonf/
pufwifbmv 23 &ufaeYu? e,l;a,mufNrdKU urÇmhukvor*¾taxGaxG
nDvmcHodkY wufa&muf&efa&muf&Sdaeaom w½kwf0efBuD;csKyf 0rfusm;aygif
onf? ]e,l;pf0dpf} owif;r*¾Zif;rS zm&d'fZmum&D,m;\vlawGUar;jref;rIudk?
¤if;wnf;cd&k m[dw k ,fwiG f oD;oefYvufcNH yD; ajzMum;cJo h nf/ touf 66 ESpf
t&G,f&Sd 0efBuD;csKyf]0rf}onf? pD;yGm;a&;wGifuRrf;usifí yGifhyGifhvif;vif;
ajymwwfo[ l k vlord sm;oljzpfNyD;? tvsiftjrefzUHG NzdK;BuD;xGm;vmaom pD;yGm;
a&;pDrHudef;tcsdKUudk udk,fwdkif OD;pD;OD;aqmifjyKum? vkyfaqmifcJholjzpfonf/
pum;]p}uwnf;uyif 0efBuD;csKyf]0rf}u? rdrdonf trSefudkomajymrnf jzpf
aMumif;? rdefUcGef;&SnfBuD;rsm;udkajym&jcif;xuf tjyeftvSefaqG;aEG; ajymqdk
jcif;udo
k m ydrk Ekd pS of ufojl zpf&m? rdrad jymaepOf Mum;jzwfaqG;aEG;Edik yf gaMumif;
]0rf}u wHcg;zGiahf y;xm;cJo h nf/ 0efBuD;csKyf ]0rf} ESihf ]Zmum&D;,m;} wdYk onf?
wdbufjyóemrS }'gzm} ESifh vlYtcGifhta&;jyóemrsm; txdvnf;aumif;?
vufiif;jzpfay:aeaom urÇmah iGaMu;tusyt f wnf;rS w½kwfjynf'Drdkua&pD
tem*wfudprö sm;txdvnf;aumif; us,fus,fjyefUjyefU aqG;aEG;ar;jref;cJMh u
onf/ ¤if;aqG;aEG;ajzMum;csurf sm;rS tcsKUd udk aumufEw I af z:jyvdu
k yf gonf/

106 107
„ tar&duefjynfaxmifpkudk ,aeY½dkufcwfaewJh b@ma&;tusyf [m? w½kwfEdkifiHpD;yGm;a&;tay: tusdK;oufa&mufrI &SdrSmuawmh tao
twnf;ESifUywfoufNyD; cifAsm; b,fvdkxifjrif,lqygovJ/ tcsmygyJ/ vGefcJhwJh 10 ESpfu w½kwf-tar&duef ukefoG,fa&;yrmP[m
… uRefawmfwdkY 'Dtusyftwnf;udk tm;vHk;vufwGJNyD; ajz&Sif;oifhyg a':vm 102.6 bDv, D yH J &Scd w
hJ m? tck 302 bDv, D H &Sad eNy/D wpfqcGJ wd;k
w,f/ tar&duefjynfaxmifprk mS b@ma&;ESiphf ;D yGm;a&;pepf cRwaf csmw f rd ;f vmwmaygh/ tar&duef0,fvdktm; ,kwfavsmhoGm;wm[m w½kwf jynfy
yg;rIjzpfNyq
D &kd if? tar&duefwpfEikd if w
H nf; xdcu
kd cf &H rSm r[kwyf gbl;/ w½kwf ydu
Yk ek tf ay: rvGrJ aoG xdcu kd rf &I rdS mS yg/ tar&duefb@ma&;eJY w½kwjf ynf
jynfeJYtm&Sa'otygt0if wpfurÇmvHk;udk xdcdkufrSmyg/ b@ma&;[m yl;yl;uyfuyf qufoG,faewmyg/ tar&duefb@ma&;
u@ wpfpw kH pf&m cRwaf csmw f rd ;f yg;rI jzpfNyq
D &kd if? w½kwt f &if;tES;D awG&UJ
„ cifAsm;Edik if &H pYJ ;D yGm;a&;eJY ywfoufv?hkd tck vlawGu odoo d mom usqif; vHkNcHKa&;twGuf uRefawmfwdkY pdk;&drfylyefrdygw,f/
oGm;vdrfhr,fvdk ajymaeMuygw,f/ usqif;oGm;r,fvdkU cifAsm;xifovm;/
wu,fvdkh usqif;oGm;r,fqdk&if aemufqufwGJ b,fvdkjzpfvmr,f xifyg „ w½kwfEdkifiH[m tar&duefbPfawG&JY tmrcHpmcsKyfawGudk trsm;qHk;
ovJ/ 0,f,lydkifqdkifxm;wJUEdkifiHyg/ wGufcsufrIt& pkpkaygif; a':vm wpfx&DvD,H
… w½kwEf ikd if &H UJ pD;yGm;a&;[m wpfEpS yf sr;f rQ 9.6%eJY tESpf 30 wdik w f ikd f eD;yg;awmif &Sw d ,fvYkd od&&dS ygw,f/ w½kwjf ynf[m 'Dyikd q f ikd rf t
I aetxm;udk
zGUH NzKd ;wd;k wufvmcJyh gw,f/ 'g[m tHb h eef;jzpf&yfyg/ 2003eJY 2007 Mum;rSm wpfenf;enf;eJh vufeufozG,f toHk;rcsygbl;vdkh tar&duefawGudk tmrcH
ESppf Of 10% ausmf wd;k wufcyhJ gw,f/ 'gayrJh pm;oH;k ukef aps;EIe;f tñTe;f u Edkifrvm;/
awmh wpfESpf 2% awmif wufrvmcJhygbl;/ … tar&duefEikd &f UJ wu,fph ;D yGm;a&;[m? tajccH cdik rf mawmifw h if;aeyg
w½kwfjynf[m vdktyfwJh ta&;,laqmif½GufcsufawG BudKwifvkyf ao;w,f/ txl;ojzifh tqifhjrifhenf;ynmeJY tajccHpufrIvkyfief;u@
aqmifzdkY vufraES;cJhyg/ t&ifu uRefawmfwdkY pdwfylcJh&wmu pD;yGm;a&; awGrmS yg/ vufawGU pD;yGm;a&;vkyaf qmifrpI epfrmS wpfpw kH pfck trSm;t,Gi;f
zGHUNzdK;rIEIef; t&SdefjrefvGef;wmaMumifh? wefjyeftusdK;oufa&mufrI (over jzpfomG ;vkydY g/ 'Djyóemudk rSerf eS u f efuefajz&Si;f vdu k Ef ikd &f if? pD;yGm;a&; yHrk eS f
heating)awGjzpfNyD; ukefaps;EIef;awGwufvmrSm? aiGawGazmif;yGvmrSmudk wnfNird o f mG ;r,fh tvm;tvm &Sad eygao;w,f/ tar&duefrmS pD;yGm;a&;
[efYwm;zdkYygyJ/ zGUH NzKd ;rI qufvuf&iS o f efaezdYk w½kwu f arQmv f ifw h myg/ 'grS w½kwjf ynfukd
'gayrJh tar&duefrSm tdrf NcH ajr aps;uGuf tusyftwnf;upNyD;? tusdL;jzpfxGef;aprSmyg/ tar&duefrSm&SdaewJh w½kwf&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHaiGawG&JU
aemufu qufwu kd jf zpfvmwJh pd;k &drzf ,G v
f idI ;f wHy;kd awGaMumifh tajctaeawG tmrcHEikd rf eI UJ vHNk cKH rtI wGuf uReaf wmfwYkd pdwyf rl w d mtrSeyf gyJ/ 'gayrJh tar
u tvsit f jrefajymif;vJomG ;cJyh gw,f/ jynfyu 0,fvt kd m;awG usqif;oGm; &duefjynfaxmifp[ k m ,HMk unfxu kd wf hJ Edik if w H pfEikd if v H Ykd uReaf wmfwYkd ,HMk unf
NyD;? w½kwfjynfwGif; 0,fvdktm;uvnf; tcsdefwdktwGif;rSm ododomom xm;ygw,f/ txl;ojzifh 'Dvdk tcuftcJawG awGUBuHKae&wJhtcsdefrSm
wd;k vmzdYk rjzpfEikd yf gbl;/ 'Dawmh uReaf wmfwrYkd mS pD;yGm;a&;aES;auG;rIukd &ifqikd f w½kwfjynf[m tar&duefudk vufurf;ulnDcJhygw,f/ 'DvdkvkyfaqmifrI
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131
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132 133
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jcm;em;w,f/ urÇmhpD;yGm;a&;&JU *vdkb,fvdkufaZ;&Sif;xJrSm jynfolrsm;&JU and Pacific. IIAS (Newsletter - 43)

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vl;uyf(p)udk 1937 ckESpfwGif tar&duefjynfaxmifpk 0g&Sifwef

jynfe,f? ,muDrmNrKd UwGif vlvwfwef;pm;rdbrsm;rS arG;zGm;onf/ tcsed rf mS
urÇmph ;D yGm;ysuu f yfBu;D \ aESmif;ydik ;f umvjzpf&m? olu Y akd rG;zGm;Ny;D rsm;rMum
rDyif rdom;pkpm;aomufqidk v f yk if ef;av; vk;H 0ysupf ;D oGm;cJo h nf/ vl;uyf(p)
\rdbbk;d bGm;rsm;rSm &DywfbvDuefygwDukd tpOftquf axmufccH MhJ uol
rsm; jzpfaomfvnf;? pD;yGm;ysuu f mvwGif tcuftcJrsm;pGm MuKH &onft h cg
&DywfbvDueft,ltqrsm;udk pGev Yf wT Nf y;D ? 'Dru dk &ufwpfw\ Ydk pD;yGm;a&;tpD
tpOfopf (New Deal) udk wuf<upGm axmufcHtm;ay;cJhMuonf/
a&mbwfvl;uyf(p) wuúov kd yf nmoifb0tpykid ;f ü vl;uyf(p)onf orkid ;f bmomudk
t"du,lcJhonf/ 1959 wGif &SDum*dkwuúodkvfrS bDatbGJY&NyD;aemuf? bm
Robert E. Lucas, Jr. (1937- )
uavwuúov kd üf orkid ;f bmom&yfjzifyh if bGv YJ eG wf ef;wufco hJ nf/ aemufwiG ?f
„ azjrifh orkid ;f aMumif;rsm;udk ajymif;vJatmif wGe;f tm;ay;onfh t"du t&monf
pD;yGm;a&;taMumif;&yfrsm; jzpfonf[k ½Ijrifojzif?h pD;yGm;a&;&morkid ;f u@
a&mbwfv;l uyf(p)u? ruú½akd bm*aA'udk csichf sed f arQmf bufoYkd ajymif;a&TUtm½kpH u kd cf o hJ nf/ xkaYd emufwiG rf l pD;yGm;a&;ynm&SiBf u;D ?
rSe;f rI (rational expectations) ½Iaxmif?h (odrYk [kw)f usr;f ½k;d opf rpfvwefz&D;(')rif; (Milton Friedman) xHü avhvmqnf;yl;vdkojzifh &SD
(new classical) ½Iaxmifr h S csO;f uyfwifjyoltjzpf xif&mS ;onf/ um*dw k uúov kd o f Ydk jyefvnfa&TUajymif;vmcJNh y;D ? 1964 ckEpS w f iG f yg&*lb&YJG &So
d nf/
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csrSwfay;Ekdif&ef enf;vrf;&Smonf/ vl;uyf(p)OD;aqmifaom ½I vkyq f uJ mvtwGi;f t&if;ESiv hf yk t
f m;udt k vG,w f ul tpm;xk;d vJv, S Ef idk yf Hk
axmifo h pform;wku Yd ? ruú½pdk ;D yGm;a&;wGif vIy&f mS ;aqmif&u G af e taMumif; pD;yGm;a&;twkdif;twmynm½IaxmifhrS avhvmwifjyxm;csuf
olrsm;onf rkduú½kdpD;yGm;a&;rSmenf;wl csifhcsdefpOf;pm;wwfaom jzpfonf/
(rational) vlom;rsm;jzpfonf/ ¤if;wkdYonf tem*wf tajct 1963 rS 1974 twGi;f vl;uyf(p)onf umeuf*rD ,fvefwuúov kd f
aeudk BuKd wifojd rifEidk &f ef tm;xkww f wfMuolrsm; jzpfNy;D ? qk;H jzwf ü oifMum;ydkYcscJhNyD;? xkdYaemufü &SDum*dkwuúodkvfokdY ajymif;a&TUwm0efxrf;
csufrsm;csrSwf&mü &orQowif;tcsuftvufudk tjynfht0 aqmifco hJ nf/ 1980 jynfEh pS w f iG f &Su D m*dük *Re*f sL;0D*P k x f ;l aqmifygarmu©
tokH;cswwfolrsm;vnf; jzpfonf[k ½IjrifMuonf/ ,if;odkY? jzpfvmNyD;? 1995 ckESpfwGifrl ruú½kdabm*aA'bmom&yfü csifhcsdefarQmfrSef;
ruú½kdpD;yGm;a&;udk zefwD;olrsm;onf? csifhcsdefwGufqwwfaom rItykid ;f udk jznfq h nf;ay;cJjh cif;twGu?f pD;yGm;a&;ynmqkid &f mEkb d ,fqk cs;D jri§ hf
olrsm;jzpfonf[k cH,o l nft h cg? ude;f (p)abm*aA' enf;pepfrsm; cH&onf/
onf rvdt k yfawmh[k jrifvmonf/ tvkyv f ufrjhJ yóemonf ÄÄÄ
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156 157
 ude;f (p)(John Maynard Keynes)vufxufrS pwifum ruú½dk abm csichf sed af rQmrf eS ;f rIt,ltq\ oufa&mufrrI sm;udv k nf;? olyif azmfxw k wf if
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vufívnf; aiGazmif;yGrIonf 4if; 3 &mckdifEIef;twkdif; &Sdaevdrfhrnf[k csichf sed af rQmrf eS ;f rI t,ltqorm;wkt Yd m; usr;f ½k;d opf*P kd ;f (new classical
arQmrf eS ;f Murnf/ tu,fí Ny;D cJah om 3-4 ESpu f aiGazmif;yGrI 4 &mckid Ef eI ;f school) [lí ac:a0:cJhMuonf/
&Scd rhJ nfqv dk Qi?f vlwpYdk w d üf 4 &mckid Ef eI ;f azmif;yGrq I uf&adS ernf[k arQmrf eS ;f usr;f ½k;d opform;wk\ Yd ½Iaxmifu h kd ydí k &Si;f vif;pGmjrif&eftwGuf ude;f (p)
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taetxm;xufawmh ydrk w dk wfoMd uonf/ 4if;wk\ Yd arQmrf eS ;f csurf sm;rSmvnf; udk OD;pGm½IMunfo h ifoh nf/ ude;f (p)u? tcsKUd wkid ;f jynfrsm;wGif tvkyv f ufrhJ
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csed af rQmrf eS ;f rI (rational expectations) [lonfwiG v f nf; a&SUodaYk rQmrf eS ;f jcif; tus,w f 0if&h iS ;f vif;wifjycJo h nf/ vkyo f m;abm*aA' url tvkyv f ufrhJ
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,cifazmif;yGcrhJ I (odUk r[kw)f aps;EIe;f rsm;ajymif;vJcrhJ I wpfcw k nf;ay:ü tajc uom avQmah yghvyk cf udk vufcrH nfqv dk Qif ,if;jyóem ajyvnfomG ;rnf
rcH? vwfwavmtajctaersm;ESifh vufiif;pD;yGm;a&;ay:vpDwkdYaMumifh jzpfaMumif; ½Ijrifonf/ 1940 ckESpfrsm;rSonf 1960 ckESpfrsm;txdaom
ajymif;vJjzpfay:vmEkid o f nfh taetxm;rsm;udyk g xnfo h iG ;f pOf;pm;onf/ ruú½adk bm*aA'orm;rsm;url? ude;f (p)t,ltqtwkid ;f yif tvkyv f ufrhJ
Oyrmtm;jzifh ,cifESpfrsm;u 3 &mckdifEIef;azmif;yGrI&SdcJhjcif;aMumifh aemuf jyóemonf tajccHtm;jzifh rnfolYqE´rSrygbJ? ¤if;bmom tvdkt
ESpv f nf; 3 &mckid Ef eI ;f yJ jzpfvrd rhf nf[k rarQmrf eS ;f bJ? avmavmq,f tvkyf avsmuf jzpfvmaomjyóem[k ½IjrifMuonf/
vufrEhJ eI ;f xm; usqif;vmaerI? aiGaMu;yrmPwk;d yGm;vmaerI ponfwu Ydk kd vl;uyf(p)u txufrS t,ltqESp&f yfv;Hk udk jiif;y,fonf/ olu
yg ½IMunfhum? rMumrD aps;EIef;awG tvQiftjrefwkd;jrifhvmvdrfhrnf[kom ruú½adk bm*aA'udk csO;f uyf&mü usr;f ½k;d tpOftvmtjrifrsm;udk jyefvnf
arQmfrSef;Muvdrfhrnf[lí ol ½Ijrifonf/ tok;H jyKco hJ nf/ onftjrift& vkyo f m;aps;uGut f ygt0if aps;uGut f m;vk;H
pifppf? csifhcsdefarQmfrSef;rI[laom t,ltqudk? ueOD;wifjycJholu? wkoYd nf a&mif;vdt k m;ESihf 0,fvt kd m;nDrQaomtaetxm;odYk a&muf&pdS NrJ
pD;yGm;a&;ynm&Sif rwf(o) (John F. Muth) jzpfonf/ 1961 ckEpS f ykEH ydS o f nfh jzpfonf[k cH,o l nf/ xko d abmt& pOf;pm;aomf tvkyv f ufrrhJ sm;&Sad eaom
rwf(o)\ Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements taetxm;onf ykrH eS rf [kw?f cRi;f csut f aetxm;omjzpfí tcsed w f efaomf
trnf&pdS mwrf;yg ¤if;t,ltqud?k vl;uyf(p) ESpo f ufvufcu H m twwf aps;uGurf sm;ndE§ iId ;f jyKjyif&if; ,if;jyóem aysmufu, G o f mG ;&rnf[k aumuf
<uqk;H axmufcjH zefcY scd jhJ cif;jzpfonf/ ruú½adk bm*aA'qkid &f m cGjJ crf;pdppf&m csux f u G v f monf/ wpfenf;qk&d aomf tvkyv f ufrjhJ yóemonf rQajctae
rsm;wGif csifhcsdefarQmfrSef;rI\ tcef;u@udkxnfhoGif;&ef ol tjyif;txef txm;odkY ra&mufao;rD&Sdaeonfh ,m,Djyóemjzpfí? tcsdefwefaomf
wku d fweG ;f cJo h uJo h ?Ykd ruú½adk bm*aA'oDt&dk ED iS hf ay:vpDyidk ;f rsm;twGuf tqkyd g olYtvdktavsmufNyD;ajyoGm;vdrfhrnf[k ½Ijrifjcif;jzpfonf/
158 159
 1969 ckESpfykHESdyfonfh (1972) ESihf Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs
Real Wages, Employment and Inflation pmwrf;wGif pmwrf; (1973) wkw Yd iG f vl;uyf(p)u? vkyif ef;wpfct k aeESihf aps;uGuw f iG f
rdrdwkdYxkwfvkyfonfhukefypönf;rsm; aps;EIef;wufonfhtcgrsKd;wGif? tqkdyg
vl;uyf(p)u vkyfom;a&mif;vdktm;onf
aps;EIef;wufjcif;onf rdrdypönf;twGuf 0,fvdktm;wufvmjcif;aMumifh
tvkyform;wpfOD;csif;wkdY\ tvkyfvkyfrnf odkYr[kwf avm (odkYjzpfvQif wkd;wufxkwfvkyf&efvdktyfygvrfhrnf) odkYwnf;r[kwf
tvkyfrvkyfbJaernf[laom taxGaxGaps;EIe;f rsm; wufjcif;aMumifah vm (okjYd zpfvQif wk;d wufxw k v f yk &f ef
a&G;cs,f rIay:wGifrlwnfaMumif; wifjycJhonf/ rvdt k yf) pojzifh csiw hf uG q f ;Hk jzwf&aMumif;? wpfenf;qk&d aomf vkyif ef;&Siw f Ydk
rSmvnf; tvkyfvkyfjcif;-tvkyfem;jcif;tMum; vJvS,favQmhwif;&aom
oabm &SdaMumif;? vkyfom;rsm;enf;wl vkyfief;&SifwkdYonfvnf; wkd;wuf
xkwv f yk jf cif;aMumifh tusK;d tjrwfyrkd &kd &Srd nfqrdk o S m wk;d wufxw k v f yk v f Mdk u
vl;uyf(p)wku Yd sr;f ½k;d opform;rsm;u? ruú½adk bm*aA'udk ckid Nf raJ om aMumif; wifjycJhonf/
ruú½kdtajccHrsm;ay:wGif wnfaqmufay;Ekdif&efvnf; tm;xkwfMuonf/ wpfzufwiG f vlwt Ydk aejzifh rdru d pd Eö iS phf yfvsO;f í odoifo h x d u dk o f nfh
pD;yGm;a&;vIyf&Sm;aqmif&Gufolrsm;onf rdrdwkdYtwGuftaumif;qkH;tajc owif;tcsut f vuftm;vk;H jynfph aHk tmifr&Ekid b f J &Sw d wfMu&m? ,if;twGuf
taersm;jzpfay:&eftwGuf csichf sed pf Of;pm;vkyMf uvdrrhf nf[k 4if;wk½Yd jI rifMu aMumifyh if tvkyf vky-f rvkyf (odrYk [kw)f xkwv f yk rf w I ;dk -rwk;d ESiphf yfvsO;f onfh
aomaMumifh jzpfonf/ 4if;wkdY\qkH;jzwfcsufrsm;onfvnf;? vGJrSm;EkdifMuaomoabm &Sdaeonf/
1969 ckESpfykHESdyfonfh Real Wages, Employment and Inflation Oyrm- tvkyform;u ,ckwkd;ay;aomEIef;xm;t&qkdvQif? rdrdtwGuf
pmwrf;wGif vl;uyf(p)u? vkyo f m;a&mif;vdt k m;onf tvkyo f rm;wpfO;D csi;f tppftrSef vkyfcwkd;wufonf[k vGJrSm;pGmwGufcsufrdjcif;rsKd;? vkyfief;&Sif
wkdY\ tvkyfvkyfrnf (odkYr[kwf) tvkyfrvkyfbJaernf[laom a&G;cs,frI taeESifhvnf; rdrdxkwfvkyfaom ypönf;trsKd;tpm;rsm; aps;uGufwGif aps;
ay:wGifrlwnfaMumif; wifjycJhonf/ tvkyform;rsm;ü tvkyfvkyfjcif;rS EIe;f wufjcif;onf taxGaxGaps;EIe;f wufjcif; oufoufaMumifrh [kw?f rdrd
&&Srd nfh tppftrSev f yk cf (real wage) yrmPudk csiw hf u G rf eS ;f qwwfaom wkyYd pön;f rsm;ud, k üf u 0,fvt kd m; rsm;ojzifh aps;EIe;f ydw k ufaejcif;jzpfonf[?k
todvnf;&So d nf/ ,if; tppftrSev f yk cf ESihf tvkyrf vkyb f aJ ejcif;aMumifh vGJrSm;pGm wGufcsufrdjcif;rsKd; pojzifhjzpfonf/
cHpm;&rnft h m;vyfrI tusK;d aus;Zl;wku Yd kd EIid ;f ,SOu
f m? vkyrf nf-rvkyrf nfq;Hk vl;uyf(p)\t,ltqt&rl? tvkyv f ufru hJ pd o ö nf wpfO;D csi;f aom
jzwfwwfMuonf/ arQmfrSef;Ekdifaom tppftrSefvkyfcrsm;onf ykHrSefxuf vkyo f m;rsm;ESihf vkyif ef;(&Si)f rsm;u txufuykpH rH sK;d twGut f csuf rSm;,Gi;f rI
ydak ernfqu kd ? vkyo
f m;wküYd tvky0f ifa&mufvyk u f idk v
f akd omqE´ ydí k jrifrh m; aMumifh ay:ayguf&jcif;jzpfonf/ tvkyform;rsm;u tppftrSefvkyfcESifh
vmvdrrhf nf/ tu,fí arQmrf eS ;f Ekid af om tppftrSev f yk cf onf ykrH eS x
f uf ywfoufí twGut f csuv f u JG m? tvkyw f pfcu k ay;aomvkycf onf enf;
avsmhaernfqkdvQifrl tvkyf0ifa&mufvkyfukdifjcif; rjyKao;bJ? vkyfcrsm; vGe;f aeonf[k aumuf,Nl y;D ? 4if;tvkyrf ES w I xf u G jf cif; (odrYk [kw)f 4if;tvkyf
jyefwufvmawmhrS vkyu f idk &f efapmifq
h idk ;f aeMurnfjzpfonf/ onfoabm udk vufrcHbaJ ejcif;rsm; jyKvyk Ef idk o f nf/ vkyif ef;orm;uvnf; 0,fvt kd m;
t&pOf;pm;vQif tvkyfvufrJhjzpfrIonf tppftrSefvkyfcrsm; ykHrSeftajc ESiyhf wfoufí avQmw h u G rf u d m tenf;i,frQomxkwv f yk jf cif;? vkyif ef;twGuf
a&mufatmif apmifhqkdif;vdkMuaom tvkyform;wkdY\qE´tavsmuf a&G; tvkyo f rm;tenf;i,frQom iSm;&rf;ckid ;f apjcif;rsm; jyKvyk Ef idk o f nf/ ,if;
cs,frI(voluntary choice) jzpfonf[k qk&d ayrnf/ tcsuf ESp&f yfaygif;v'fu tvkyv f ufrOhJ ;D a&rsm;jym;aprnf jzpfonf/ odaYk omf
tvm;wl vkyfief;&Sifrsm;bufu a&G;cs,fqkH;jzwf&onfhtykdif;ESifh vlwrYdk nfonf a&SUaemufcsichf sed f wkid ;f xGmwwfaomolrsm; jzpf&m? rMumrDyif
ywfoufívnf;? Expectations and the Neutrality of Money pmwrf; trSm;rsm;udkjrifí jyifqifjzpfMuvdrfhrnf/ xkdtcg? tvkyfvufrJhjyóem
160 161
vnf; &Sif;vif;aysmufuG,foGm;vdrfhrnf[lí olu okH;oyfrSwf,lonf/ ta&;ygaom tpdwftykdif;tcsKdUwGif tajymif;tvJrsm;{uefrkcsjzpfay:
ÄÄÄ aMumif; ... pD;yGm;a&;qkid &f mqufE, G rf rI sm;teuf rnfonfq h ufE, G rf wI Ydk
onf rajymif;vJ? rnfonfhqufEG,frIwkdYu ajymif;vJonf/ ajymif;vJ&mü
tvkyv f ufrjhJ yóemay:ayguf&jcif;taMumif;&if;ESiphf yfvsO;f onfh vnf; rnforYdk nfyaHk jymif;vJonf? ponfwu Ydk kd rod&ydS gu ay:vpDtrsKd ;rsKd ;
txufu pdppfcsuo f nf vl;uyf(p)a0zefcsuf (Lucas Critique) [k trnf wdUk \ oufa&mufrrI sm;ud?k pD;yGm;a&; wkid ;f wmrIypHk rH sm;tm;jzifh pdppftuJjzwf&ef
wGiof nfh ol\tjcm;wifjycsuw f pf&yfEiS hf wpfom;wnf; qufpyfrad eonf/ tm;xkwrf rI sm;onf? wefz;dk &Sv d rd rhf nfr[kwaf Mumif;...onft h jyif pD;yGm;a&;
vl;uyf(p)a0zefcsufu þokdYjzpfonf/ BuKd wifcefrY eS ;f onfh ykpH rH sm;\ ratmifjrifcahJ om tpOftvm (Oyrm 1970
pD;yGm;a&;cGJjcrf;pdppf&mü tokH;jyKavh&Sdonfh ykHrSefvkyfenf;vkyf[ef ckEpS rf sm;u jzpfay:cJo h nfh aiGazmif;yGEeI ;f a&m tvkyv f ufrEhJ eI ;f xm;yg jrifh
wpfck&Sdonf/ ,if;u tcGefb@ma&;ay:vpD (fiscal policy) (okrYd [kw)f rm;aomtaetxm;udk &Sif;vif;EkdifpGrf;r&SdcJhjcif;)udk MunfhvQifyif ruú½kd
aiGaMu;ay:vpD (monetary policy) (odrYk [kw)f 4if;ESp&f yfv;Hk wGif wpfpw Hk pf&m pD;yGm;a&;qufEG,frIrsm; rMumcPajymif;vJaeonfhtcsufudk odjrifEkdif
tajymif;tvJjyKvkyfvdkufvQif pD;yGm;a&;wpf&yfvkH;tay: rnfonfhouf aMumif; ... ola&;om;cJhonf/
a&mufrIrsm; jzpfay:rnfenf;[lonfudk ruú½kdpD;yGm;a&;ykHpH (model) rsm; vufawGyY idk ;f twGuf csKyí f ajym&aomf vl;uyf(p)a0zefcsu[ f o l nf
wnfaqmufí avhvmjcif;jzpfonf/ 1960 ckEpS rf sm;twGi;f url 4if;ykpH rH sm; pD;yGm;a&;ay:vpDajymif;vQif pD;yGm;a&;tjyKtrlrsm;vnf;ajymif;vJvrd rhf nf
onf ay:vpDcsrw S o f wl tYdk m;? aiGazgif;yGreI nf;yg;Ny;D tvkyt f ukid rf sm;vnf; [laomoabmjzpfygonf/ pifppf? rdrt d wGuf taumif;rGeq f ;Hk taetxm;
tjynft h 0&&Sad prnfh pD;yGm;a&;taetxm;wpf&yf zefw;D wnfaqmufEidk f &&Sad tmif tm;xkwv f Mkd uonfh csichf sed pf Of;pm;wwfaomyk*Kd¾ vw f idk ;f yif? pD;yGm;
&ef taxmuftuljyKMuvdrrhf nf[k ,lqcJMh uonf/ odaYk omf 1970 ckEpS rf sm; a&;ay:vpDajymif;vJrEI iS hf &ifqidk &f vQif rdr\ d pD;yGm;a&;tjyKtrlukd ajymif;vJ
twGi;f jzpfay:cJo h nfh aiGazgif;yGEeI ;f a&m tvkyv f ufrEhJ eI ;f yg NyKd iw
f jl rifrh m; Murnfomjzpfonf/ ,if;tjyKtrltajymif;tvJu ruú½pdk ;D yGm;a&;qkid &f m
aeaomtaetxm;(stagflation)udk taMumif;jyKum tcGeb f @ma&;qkid f qufEG,frIrsm;udk ajymif;vJaprnfjzpf&m? ruú½kdpD;yGm;a&;ay:vpDonf xd
&mESifh aiGaMu;qkdif&may:vpDrsm;onf ruú½kdpD;yGm;a&;jyóemrsm;udk xd a&mufrI&Sdrnfr[kwfawmh/
a&mufpGm ajz&Sif;EkdifpGrf;r&SdaMumif; ay:vGifvmcJhonf/ 4if;ay:vpDrsm; onftwGuf erlemwpfcku tpdk;&a<u;NrDrsm;ESifhywfoufonf/
ratmifjrif&jcif;taMumif;&if;udk ynm&SifwkdYokH;oyftajz&Sm&ef vdktyf ude;f (p)abm*aA'tvdkt& tpkd;&u tcGefEIef;xm;rsm;avQmhcsvQif ukef
aecsdefwGif vl;uyf(p)u ol\tjrifudk wifjyvmonf/ ypön;f ESi0hf efaqmifrrI sm; 0,fvt kd m;wk;d wufrnf[k a,bk,srw S , f Ml uonf/
ol\ Econometric Policy Evaluation : A Critique trnf&pdS mwrf; odaYk omf usr;f ½k;d opfruú½adk bm*aA'u ,if;okYd r,lq/ 4if;u tcGeaf vQmh
(1976)ESifh After Keynesian Macroeconomics pmwrf; (1978)wkw Yd iG f aumufvQif tpkd;&ü vdkaiGyrmPrsm;jym;vmvdrfhrnf/ xkdtcg csifhcsdef
vl;uyf(p)u pD;yGm;a&;ay:vpDtrsK;d rsK;d wk\ Yd oufa&mufrrI sm;udk wkid ;f wm pOf;pm;wwfaomolwt Ydk aejzifh tpd;k &onf xkv d akd iGrsm;udk aemifwpfaeYwiG f
wGucf su&f mü? Bu;D rm;aom ruú½pdk ;D yGm;a&;ykpH rH sm; wnfaqmuftok;H jyKae jyefvnfjznfw h if;&vdrrhf nf? jznfw h if;&efenf;vrf;rSm tcGerf sm; wk;d aumuf
MuykHrsm;udk a0zefa&;om;cJhonf/ olu 4if;ykHpHrsm;tm;vkH;yif pD;yGm;a&; aomenf;yifjzpfonf[k odjrifMuvdrfhrnf/ xkdtcg avmavmq,f tcGef
ay:vpDrsm; rnfoaYdk jymif;vJonfjzpfap? ruú½pdk ;D yGm;a&;qkid &f m qufE, G rf I avQmhayghojzifh ydkxGufvmaomaiGrsm;udk aemifwpfaeY ay;Ekdif&eftvdkYiSm
(macroeconomic relationship)rsm;uawmh rajymif;rvJ wpforwfwnf;&Sd odrf;qnf;xm;Muvdrfhrnf/ jyefcsKyfaomf? tcGefavQmhayghrI\&v'ftjzpf
aevdrrhf nf[í l rSw, f Ml uaomoabm&Sad Mumif; axmufjyNy;D ? ,if;tcsuf pm;ok;H olwYdk wk;d wufo;Hk pGjJ cif;? xkrd q S ufí tvkyt f ukid rf sm;wk;d yGm;vmjcif;
rSm;,Gif;ykHudk txufu 'kwd,pmwrf;wGif olwifjyonf/ olu ay:vpD ponfwkdYrjzpfay:bJ? pkaiGrsm;omwkd;wufvmvdrfhrnf[lí ½IjrifcJhonf/
tajymif;tvJwpfcck k vkyv f u
dk o
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162 163
wpfcku zdvpf(y)(p)rsOf;auG; (Phillips Curve) ESifhywfoufonf/ Ekid jf cif;jzifoh m tvkyt f ukid &f &Srd w
I ;dk jrifv
h mapaom oabm&Sv d rd rhf nf/ okaYd omf
zdvpf(y)(p) rsO;f auG;[lonf aiGazmif;yGrEI iS hf tvkyv f ufrjhJ zpfrwI tYdk Mum; tvkyo f rm;rsm;udk wpfBurd Ef pS Bf urd x f ufyNkd y;D vdrn
f mvSnjhf zm;ír&/ aemuf
avQmhwif;zvS,frI&SdykHudkjyonfh *&yf(z)rsOf;jzpfonf/ aiGazgif;yGEIef;jrifh wpfBudrf tpdk;&u tokH;p&dwfwkd;aomenf;jzifh tvkyftukdifrsm; wkd;yGm;
wufvQif tvkyv f ufrOhJ ;D a&avsmu h svmí? aiGazgif;yGEeI ;f avsmu h svQif t atmifBuKd ;yrf;rnfqv dk Qi?f tvkyo f rm;wku Yd aiGaMu;azgif;yGru I v kd nf;aumif;?
vkyfvufrJhOD;a&wkd;jrifhvmonf[lí 4if;rsOf;auG;u jyoonf/ rdrw d t Ydk ppftrSev f yk cf rsm; wu,fwrf;rwk;d wufonfuv kd nf;aumif; BuKd wif
vl;uyf(p)url zdvpf(y)(p)rsO;f auG;ygtqku d kd tpOftqufaxmuf odjrifojzifh tvkyv f yk v
f pdk w d f enf;yg;Muvdrrhf nf/ xkt d cg ¤if;ay:vpDrsm;
cHwifjycJMh uolrsm;taeESihf ruú½pdk ;D yGm;a&;udk zefw;D olrsm;onf usK;d aMumif; aMumifh tvkyt f ukid rf sm; wk;d yGm;vmvdrrhf nfr[kwf pojzifh ok;H oyfjyonf/
ajrmfjrifrrI &So d rl sm;jzpfonf[k rSw, f x l m;Muyk&H aMumif;? ol\ Expectations tvm;wl aiGaMu;ay:vpDEiS yhf wfoufívnf; A[db k Pfrsm;onf vlwt Ydk m;
and the Neutrality of Money pmwrf;wGif a&;om;cJhonf/ qufvufí tpOfxm0& vSnjhf zm;rxm;Ekid af Mumif; usK;d aMumif;jyajymqkNd y;D aemufwiG f
olu zdvpf(y)(p)rsO;f auG;onf a&&Snüf axmifvu dk f (vertical) taetxm; olu tqkyd gtcGeb f @ma&;ESihf aiGaMu; ay:vpDrsm;onf pD;yGm;a&;wpf&yf
wGio f m&Sad evdrrhf nfjzpfaMumif; &Si;f vif;jyonf/ olu tu,fí ay:vpDcs wk;d wufaumif;rGeaf tmif vkyaf qmifay;Ekid pf rG ;f r&So d nfjzpf&m? ,if;wkt Yd ae
rSwo f w l tYdk aeESihf pD;yGm;a&;wk;d csUJ aomenf;tm;jzifh tvkyv f ufrahJ vsmu h s jzifh wnfNird í f cefrY eS ;f &vG,af om pnf;rsO;f pnf;urf;rsm;twkid ;f om vku d ef m
atmif vkyfaqmifrnfqkdvQif? csifhcsdefwGufqwwfaom pD;yGm;a&;vIyf&Sm; usio hf ;Hk oifo
h nf[k tBujH yKonf/ tcGeb f @ma&;wGif &aiG-ok;H aiGrQonfh
aqmif&u G o f rl sm;u aiGaMu;azgif;yGEeI ;f jrifw h ufvmrnf[o k m arQmrf eS ;f Mu bwf*sujf zpf&efEiS hf aiGaMu;ay:vpDtykid ;f wGif aiGw;dk yGm;EIe;f udk wdwu d sus
vdrfhrnf/ tvkyform;rsm;taeESifhvnf; aiGazgif;yGrIaMumifh rdrdwkdY tppf owfrSwfaMunmxm;&ef ol wkdufwGef;onf/
trSev f yk cf rsm; rlvxufavsmu h saeonf[k ½Ijrifojzif?h tvkyf vkyv f pkd wd f ÄÄÄ
enf;yg;Muvdrrhf nf/ xkt d cg tvkyv f ufrOhJ ;D a&vnf; usqif;vdrrhf nfr[kw/f
csKy&f aomf 0,fvt kd m;wk;d wufatmif vIaYH qmfonft h pDtrHrsm;aMumifh aps; 1995 ckESpfwGif qDG'if&Sd awmf0ifodyÜHtu,f'rDu vl;uyf(p)tm;
EIef;jrifhwufjcif;[laom oufa&mufrIwpfckwnf;omjzpfay:apvdrfhrnf/ Ekb
d ,fqak &G;cs,t f yfEiS ;f onft h cg? aumfrwD\ rSwcf suw f iG f ]1970 ckEpS f
xkaYd Mumifh a&&Snüf pD;yGm;a&;ay:vpDonf ukeaf ps;EIe;f ESihf aiGazmif;yGEeI ;f wku Yd kd aemufyidk ;f umvwpfavQmuf ruú½adk bm*aA'bmom&yftwGuf olx Y ufykd
om ajymif;vJatmifvkyfEkdifrnf/ tvkyfvufrJhavsmhyg;a&;udk vkH;0vkyf í vTrf;rkd;oufa&mufcJholr&Sd} [k rSwfcsufjyKcJhonf/
aqmifEidk rf nfr[kw[ f k oluqko d nf/ xkjYd yif olu aiGazmif;yGrEI iS hf tvkyf pD;yGm;a&;ynmtwGuf vl;uyf(p)\ t"dujznfq h nf;csurf mS pD;yGm;a&;
vufrJhjzpfrItMum;wGif? zdvpf(y)(p)rsOf;auG;u azmfjyonfh vJvS,favQmh vIy&f mS ;aqmif&u G Mf uolrsm;ü a&SUodaYk jrmfjrifcefrY eS ;f csurf sm;&SMd uaMumif;? ,if;
wif;rIrsKd;vnf; wu,fr&SdaMumif;? tvkyfvufrJhEIef;ESifhywfoufí trSef ajrmfjrifcsurf sm;u pD;yGm;a&;wpf&yf\ pGr;f aqmif&nfEiS hf ,if;\tajctae
wu,f&o dS nfu rpfvwefz&D;(')rif; (Milton Friedman) pwifajymqkcd hJ taumif;-tqk;d wkt Yd ay: oufa&mufvrT ;f rk;d rI&adS Mumif; &Si;f vif;wifjycsuf
onfh obm0tvkyfvufrJhEIef; (natural rate of unemployment) wpfck jzpfonf/ onfwGif tvkyfvufrJhjyóemudk ajz&Sif;&eftwGuf pD;yGm;a&;
wnf;omjzpfaMumif;? xko d bm0EIe;f udk jy|mef;aomt&monf tvkyo f rm; ay:vpDrsm; csrw S af qmif&u G &f rnf[k cH,o l nfh ude;f (p)abm*aA' tpOf
rsm;ESiv hf yk if ef;(&Si)f rsm;\ qk;H jzwfcsurf sm;omjzpfaMumif;? rnfonfph ;D yGm;a&; tvmt,ltqESifh ol xdyfwkduf&ifqkdifcJh&onf/ vl;uyf(p)\ ,if; vkyf
ay:vpDurS 4if;udk jyKjyifajymif;vJEidk pf rG ;f r&Sad Mumif; tckid t f rmqkcd o hJ nf/ aqmifcsurf sm;rSaeí ruú½adk bm*aA'ynm&yfe,fy,fü csichf sed af rQmrf eS ;f rI
pD;yGm;a&;oGuv f ufatmifvaYHI qmfonfh tcGeb f @ma&;ay:vpDrsm; udk y"mejyKonfhusrf;½kd;opft,ltq vTrf;rkd;cJhayonf/
ESiyhf wfoufívnf;? vl;uyf(p)u ,if;ay:vpDrsm;onf tvkyo f rm;rsm; azjrifh
tm; tppftrSev f yk cf rsm; wk;d wuf&&So d nf[t k xifa&mufatmif? vSnjhf zm; &nfnTef; / Steven Pressman \ Fifty Major Economists
164 165
rEåav;wuúodkvf ESpf 50 jynfU trSwfw&

ref;wuúokdvfygarmu©csKyf
OD;ausm&f if
(1916-1966)
„ armifaZ,sm

]] jrefrmEkdifiH vGwfvyfa&;BudK;yrf;rIwGif &efukefwuúodkvf ausmf&if? OD;? ygarmu©csKyf -

ausmif;om;rsm;or*¾acgif;aqmif? e,fcsJUqefYusifa&;ESifh zufqpf 1916 ckESpf 'DZifbmv 7 &uf Mumoyaw;aeYwGif &ckdifjynfe,f?
qefYusifa&;orm;? avxD;oifwef;om;tjzpf yg0ifcJhonf/ ppfNyD; oHwGJNrdKUü arG;zGm;onf/ tz c½kdif0ef½kH;pma&;BuD; OD;zkd;OD;? trd a':jr&if
zqyv A[dkOD;pD;tzGJY0if? Armjynf uGefjrLepfygwD A[dkaumfrwD0if jzpfonf/ wpfOD;wnf;aomom;? trnf armifausmf&ifjzpfonf/ 5ESpf
tjzpf a&G;cs,fcH&onf/ *syefawmfvSefa&;umv uyif ]awmfvSef t&G,fwGif zcifuG,fvGefonf/ tbkd; a&Tyef;xdrfq&mBuD; OD;zkd;? tbGm;
a&;NyD;vkdY wkdif;jynfvGwfvyf&ifawmh uRefawmf EkdifiHa&;rvkyfawmh a':a&TOwkdYvufwGif BuD;jyif;cJhonf/
bl;? pmaye,f 'grSr[kwf tEkynme,fxJ0ifr,fAsm} [kajymcJh&m? oHwGJ atbDtrfausmif;wGif pwifynmoifonf/ xkdYaemuf oHwGJ
ocifwifjru ]tEkynmpdwfESifh awmfvSefa&;vkyfcJhol}[k rSwfwrf; tpk;d &txufwef;ausmif;ajymif;í ynmoif&m? 1934 ckEpS w f iG f 10 wef;
wifcJhonf/ ajymonfhtwkdif;yif AkdvfcsKyfatmifqef;u oHwGJc½kdifrS pmar;yGaJ tmifonf/ bmomwGrJ mS ;í wuúov kd 0f ifciG rhf &/ 1935-36 ckEpS f
wkdif;jyKjynfjyKvTwfawmftrwf trnfwifoGif;vdkonfudk awmif;yef wGif &efuek q f &mjzpfoif wDwpD w D iG f ynmoifí? wuúov kd 0f ifwef;atmif
í? &efuek w f uúov kd jf refrmpmXmeü jrefrmpmenf;jytjzpf tvky0f ifNyD; onf/ wDwpD w D iG f ynmoifMum;aepOf? wpfjynfv;Hk 10 wef;ausmif;om;rsm;
ynma&;? pmay? tEkynmwm0efrsm;udk xrf;aqmifcJhonf/ uxdu pmpDpmuk;H NyKd iyf w JG iG ?f yxr&cJo
h nf/ 1936-41 ckEpS w f iG f &efuek w f uúov kd üf
OD;ausm&f iftrnfjzifx h if&mS ;í qkAd , D ufjynfaxmifp(k ½k&mS ;jynfaxmif ynmqnf;yl;í bDatbGJU&onf/
pk) armfpudk tjynfjynfqkdif&m qufoG,fa&;wuúodkvf jrefrmpm wuúov kd w f iG f ynmoifMum;aepOf e*g;eDwu dk x f w k pf mtkyrf sm;zwfí
{nfyh garmu©? rEÅav; 0dZmÆ ESio hf yd w
HÜ uúov kd f ygarmu©csKyf wm0efrsm; wuúodkvf wuotvkyftrIaqmif? AuojyefMum;a&;ESifh 0g'jzefYcsda&;
ay;tyfcH&onf/ ygarmu©csKyfb0wGif txufArmjynf pma&;q&m wm0efcHtjzpf aqmif&Gufonf/ 1938 ukvm;-jrefrmt"du½kPf;wGif
toif; pum;ajyaumfr&Siu f wifoiG ;f aom ]Armpmay ta&;tom;} oHwNJG rKd U at;csr;f om,ma&;twGuf &ckid v f il ,frsm;udOk ;D aqmifNy;D ? rlqvif
pmwrf;udk ]qifoGm;&if vrf;jzpfw,f} [kaxmufcHcJhonf/}} vli,frsm;ESihf yl;aygif;aqmif&u G of nf/ 1941 ckEpS w f iG f ausmif;om; acgif;
166 167
aqmif? wkAYd rm tpnf;t½k;H 0ifwpfO;D tjzpf oHwjJG yefí e,fcsUJ qefu Y siaf &; udt k ek ;f armif (avxD;OD;tke;f armif)? udpk ;dk armif (Akv d rf LS ;cspaf umif;) wkEYd iS hf
vuf½;Hk wyfrsm; OD;aqmifzpYJG nf;onf/ ppfa&; Ekid if aH &; oifwef;rsm; zGiv hf pS í
f twl? zufqpfawmfveS af &;twGuf avxD;oifwef;ESihf ppfoifwef;wuf&ef?
e,fcsJUawmfvSefa&;twGuf pnf;½kH;jyifqifcJhonf/ tdE, d´ okYd oGm;a&mufco hJ nf/ avxD;oifwef;ESihf ppfoifwef;udk oD&v d uFm
1942 ckEpS f t*Fvyd w f yfrsm;qkwcf mG pOf? oHwcJG ½kid f ajratmufawmf ESifhtdEd́,wGif wufa&mufonf/ umvuwåm;&Sd bkH&dyfomac: qef;a';
vSefa&;acgif;aqmiftjzpf wm0ef,lcJhonf/ oHwGJc½kdiftkyfcsKyfa&;twGuf ADvmü? udo k ed ;f az(ode;f azjrif)h acgif;aqmifí zufqpfawmfveS af &;twGuf
bDtkdifatwyfrSL; Akdvf&efatmif (&JabmfokH;usdyf0if)ESifhtwlpDpOfí c½kdif oifwef;rsm;ay;&m? udak usm&f ifonf Ekid if aH &;oifwef;wm0efct H jzpf e,fcsUJ
tkyfcsKyfa&;tzGJY Ouú| wm0efudk ,m,Dxrf;aqmifcJhonf/ 1943 ckESpf ppfyGJrS jynfolYppfyGJrsm;tjzpfodkY ajymif;vJvmykH? jynfolYppfoabmw&m;udk
pufwifbmvwGi?f ocifwifEiS t hf wl zufqpfqefu Y siaf &;twGuf w½kwf ydkYcsonf/ ppftNyD; ,if;odkYydkYcscsufudktajccHí? ]e,fcsJUppfrSvlxkppfokdY}
EkdifiHoGm;&ef BudK;pm;cJhonf/ zufqpfawmfvSefa&;twGuf jrpf0uRef;ay: trnfjzifh rEÅav;NrKd U Bu;D yGm;a&; (vlx)k pmtkyw f udk uf ykEH ydS cf ohJ nf/ 1945
wGif vQdKU0Sufaqmif&Gufaeaom ocifpkd; EkdifiHa&;oifwef;udk ocifA[def; ckEpS f {Nyv D twGi;f avxD;tprf;ckeaf vhusiphf Of? ajcck½H ;dk usK;d í aq;½kw H uf
(udkxGef;vdIif)? rcifBuD; (roef;jrifh)? tmtD;wD OD;ausmfNidrf; (OD;csrf;om)? a&mufuo k &m zufqpfawmfveS af &;wGif udo k ed ;f azESihf umvuwåm;ü usef
udpk wH if (&ckid u
f x
kd eG ;f OD;)wkEYd iS t
hf wl? udb
k uGe;f trnfjzifh wufa&mufonf/ &pfcJhonf/
zufqpfqefYusifa&;twGuf ocifoef;xGef; OD;aqmifaomtkyfpkESifh quf zufqpf*syefrsm; rEÅav;rSqw k cf mG Ny;D aemuf? rEÅav;NrKd UwGif Bu;D yGm;
oG,faqmif&Gufonf/ a&;OD;vS (vlx)k ? q&mBu;D OD;&mZwfwEYdk iS t hf wl txufjrefrmjynf zufqpf
1944 ckESpf azazmf0g&DvwGif? zufqpfawmfvSefa&;twGuf ocif qefu Y siw f u dk zf suaf &;eSihf jynfov Yl w
G vf yfa&;tzGYJ (zwyv)udk zGpYJ nf;onf/
wifa&T? rjr&D (ausmufqnf)ESifh udkndKxGef; (0efBuD;a[mif;? oHtrwf 1945 ckEpS f Zlvidk v f 20 &ufaeYrS 27 &ufaeYtxd? &efuek Nf rKd U prf;acsmif;&yf?
a[mif;)wkdYudk *GNrdKUjzwfí? t*FvdyfppfoabFmjzifh tdEd́,&Sd zufqpfawmf Am;u&mvrf;? trSwf 138 ArmjynfuGefjrLepfygwD XmecsKyfüusif;yaom
vSeaf &; jynfywm0efcH udo k ed ;f az (ode;f azjrif)h xH wm0ef,yl Ukd aqmifco hJ nf/ 'kw, d tBurd u f eG *f &ufwiG ?f Armjynf uGejf rLepf ygwDA[dak umfrwD0iftjzpf
xkdESpf ZlvkdifvwGif? ocifoef;xGef;\tpDtpOfjzifh ocifAkdvf (tzGJYacgif; a&G;cs,cf &H onf/ zwyv (zqyv) A[dk OD;pD;tzG0YJ ifjzpfonf/ 1946ckEpS f
aqmif)? ref;0if;armif (wwd,ajrmuf jynfaxmifpkjrefrmEkdifiH or®w)? azazmf0g&DvwGi?f oHweJG ,f awmifov l ,form;or*¾nv D mcHukd OD;aqmif

168 169
usif;yí? awmifolv,form;b0 o½kyfazmfjyZmwfudk OD;pD;wifqufcJh
onf/ 1946 ckEpS f uGejf rLepfygwD 2 jcrf;uG&J m? ocifoef;xGe;f ESihf OD;ode;f az
(jrifh) OD;aqmifaom ArmjynfuGefjrLepfygwD (tvHjzL) A[dkaumfrwD0if
jzpfcJhonf/
uGejf rLepfygwDtuGt J NyEJ iS hf &ckid jf ynfe,f? oHwcJG ½kid f Ekid if aH &;tajc
taersm;aMumif?h Akv d cf sKyaf tmifqef;u oHwcJG ½kid f wkid ;f jyKjynfjyKvw T af wmf
trwfvsmxm;rIukd awmif;yefí? &efuek w f uúovkd jf refrmpmXmewGif enf;jy jrefrmrif;rsm;ESifh
tjzpfaqmif&u G o f nf/ jrefrmpmr[m0dZmÆ wef;twGuf ]jrefrmpum;yko H rkid ;f }
wifoiG ;f Ny;D 1950 jynfEh pS w f iG f r[m0dZmÆ bGUJ &onf/ &efuek w
pmXmeü vufaxmufuxdu? uxduwm0efrsm; xrf;aqmifí 1962-
f uúov dk f jrefrm pHpk rf;ppfaq;rI
64 ckESpfwGif qkdAD,uf,leD,H(½k&Sm;)? armfpudktjynfjynfqkdif&mqufoG,f „ rif;ok0Pf
a&;wuúodkvf jrefrmpm{nfhygarmu©? 1964-65 ckESpfwGif wuúodkvfrsm;
tkyfcsKyfa&;½kH; tkyfcsKyfa&;rSL;? 1965-66 ckESpfwGif rEÅav; 0dZÆmESifhodyÜH
wuúodkvfygarmu©csKyftjzpf aqmif&GufcJhonf/ q&mwkdY i,fpOfu jrefrm&mZ0ifeJYqkdifwJh Zmwfvrf;
i,fpOfuyif pmaytEkynm0goem xufoefonf/ 13 ESpft&G,f awGu?kd ½kyaf o;q&mawG cif;usi;f ujywmudk awGzY ;l &w,f/
wGif pmpa&;onf/ wuúodkvfausmif;om;b0 jyZmwfpmayudk txl;avh Zmwfq&mawG cif;usif;jyowmudk awGYzl;&w,f/ uGufpdyf
vmonf/ wpfcef;&yfjyZmwfrsm;a&;om;í jyZmwfEiS hf pmaya0zefrt I wwf q&mawG a[majymwmudk Mum;zl;&w,f/ Zmwfpmtkyaf wGxJ
ynmxGe;f um;a&;twGuf BuKd ;yrf;aqmif&u G o
f nf/ &efuek wf uúov kd f jrefrm rSm a&;om;xm;wmudk zwfzl;&w,f/ aemufNyD; ausmif;okH;
pmXmewGiftrIxrf;aepOf pmayAdrmefokcrdeftzGJY0if? &efukefwuúodkvf pmtkyaf wGrmS wifjyxm;wmudk avhvm&w,f/ tJ'gawGukd
ESpfvnfr*¾Zif;? &ckdifwefaqmifr*¾Zif;wkdYwGif jrefrmpmu@ twkdifyifcH awG&Y ? Mum;&? zwf&? avhvm&Ny;D aemuf pdwx f rJ mS tenfxidk f
pmwnf;? jrefrmEkdifiH pma&;q&mtoif; tvkyftrIaqmif (1950-51)? NyD; usefcJhwJhtjrifuawmh? ]wkdYjrefrmbk&ifrsm;[m xif&m
wuúodkvftEkynmtoif; OD;aqmifolwpfOD;jzpfonf/ jrefrmpmXme awG;? xif&majymNy;D ? xif&mvkywf wfwhJ xif&morm;Bu;D awG}
twGuf usyif;w&m;pm(1953)? aerdi&Jcef;ysKUd (1953)? &ckid rf if;orD;{csi;f ? vdYk jzpfaew,f/
yvvJqifrif;ysKdUwkdY wnf;jzwfay;cJhonf/ Zif;'g;tusOf;orm; (1938)? aemuf toufBuD;vdkY jrefrmbmomeJYa&;xm;wJh
uñGw½f ;dk Akv d cf sKyf (1945)? rSwrf o d rQveD if (yxrwG)J ? e,fcsUJ ppfrv S x l pk pfoYdk ausmufpmawG? armfueG ;f awG? {csi;f awG? &mZ0ifawG? orkid ;f
(1945)? qGmrd0da0ueE´m (195-)? rufpf0g'ESifh bmoma0g[m& (1954)? awGudk zwf&jyefawmh b,fvdkjrifvmjyefovJqkdawmh? wkdY
EkdifiHa&;vufa&G;pifpmay (1968) wkdYjyKpkcJhonf/ jrefrmbk&ifawG[m w&m;rif;jrwfawGyguvm;vkdY jzpfae
1966 ckESpf rwfv 30 &ufaeYwGif? &efukefNrdKU jynfolYaq;½kHBuD;ü w,f/
uG,v f eG cf o
hJ nf/ uG,v f eG cf sed üf ZeD; a':jzL? om; (udÓ k PfxeG ;f atmif)? orD; tJ'gu q&mh&UJ tjrifukd omreftm;jzifh tusO;f csK;H Ny;D
(rwl;wl;) usef&pfcJhygonf/ tMurf; ajymjywmaemf/ onfavmufawmhvnf; q&mhtjrif
armifaZ,sm [m rvG,fygbl;/
odkYaomfvnf;? a&S;a[mif;jrefrmpmayeJY tNrJwap

170 171
 zwfz;l w,f/ pmtrnfu ]tar;awmf tajzusr;f }wJ/h ar;wJyh *k Kd¾ vu f bk;d awmf
bk&m;? ajzwJhyk*¾dKvfu ÓPbd0Ho"r®aoemywd r[m"r®&mZm "d&mZ*k½k
wHqdyfawmf&SdwJh armif;axmifomoemykdif q&mawmfbk&m; jzpfygw,f/
ouú&mZf 1145 ckEpS u f pNy;D ar;vkud -f ajzvku
d Mf uwm 1168 ckEpS f txdygyJ/
ESpfaygif; 23 ESpfMumygw,f/ ar;cGef;aygif; 243 cka&wGufvdkY &ygw,f/
omoemawmfta&;? wkid ;f a&;jynfa&;? rdru d , kd af &;? jynfot l rsm;&JU
ta&;wkeYd yYJ wfoufNy;D odcsiw f m ay:vmwJt h cg? bk&ifrif;jrwfu q&mawmf
udk ar;wmyJ/ q&mawmfuvnf; avmuDavmukw&å musr;f *ef pmayawGeYJ
n§Ed iId ;f Ny;D ajzqkad wmfrw l myJ/ Oyrmtm;jzifh oD[Vkd u f Re;f udk omoemjyKy*k Kd¾ vf
vTwfoifh-rvTwfoifhar;w,f/ ,kd;',m;jynfudk udk,fawmfwkdif ppfcsDoifh-
rcso D ifah r;w,f/ r[mrdwf w½kwjf ynfukd ulnpD pfwu dk af y;&ef ud, k af wmfwidk f
cso
D ifh - rcso D ifah r;w,f/ wkid ;f oljynfom;wkYd rSerf eS u f efuef tok;H jyK&atmif
tav;? awmif;? wif;jyKpak &;udk ar;w,f/ rdwv d¬ muefawmfBu;D jyKjyifqnfzYdk
qufqNH y;D ae&wJt h cgrSm? olwaYdk cwf olwt Ydk cg&JU ywf0ef;usit f ajctaeudk a&; ar;w,f/ 550 Zmwfudk jrefrmjyefzkdY? yd#uwf 3 ykHudk wnf;jzwfzkdY ar;
aemufcHxm;NyD;Munfhr,fqkd&if? q&mwkdY&JUjrefrmbk&ifrsm;[m tqkd;csnf; w,f/ tdEd́,jynfu ,laqmifvmwJh o'´gusrf;? tvuFmusrf;? tbd"mef
vnf; r[kw?f taumif;csn;f vnf; r[kw?f tjcm;tjcm;aom wkid ;f wpfyg;rif; usr;f ? qef;usr;f ? aA'ifusr;f ? aq;usr;f ? "mwfusr;f ? "r®owfusr;f ? eDwu d sr;f ?
wkeYd nf;wl? qk;d -aumif;ESpcf suw f zJG ufaeMuwJh ykxZk Ofrif;awGyv J Ykd jrifvmyg £wd[mousrf;awGudk jrefrmjyefqkda&;twGuf ar;w,f/ tJonfvdk ar;
w,f/ tJonftxJrmS q&mcs;D usL;vdw k muawmh? q&mwkYd rif;awG&UJ ynm&Sd cGe;f aygif; 243 &yfukd q&mawmfb&k m;u ajzawmfrw l u hJ sr;f jzpfvYkd ]tar;awmf
rsm;udk rSD0Jqnf;uyfjcif;tavhtx jzpfygw,f/ tajzusrf;} vkdY rSnfhac:xm;wmyJ/ bkd;awmfbk&m;[m usrf;*efpmayynm
jrefrmrif;awG[m omoemawmfta&;? wkdif;a&;jynfa&;? bk&if A[kow k tvGev f vkd m;wJh bk&ifwpfyg;jzpf½rHk Qru? ynm&Sad wGukd jrwfE;dk Ny;D
rif;jrwfESifhwuG om;awmftpOf? ajr;awmftquf? jrpfawmftnGefYwkdY\ ynm&Spd um;udk av;pm;w,fqw dk m? tJoh nfusr;f wpfcu k yJ oufaocHaeyg
ta&;? wkdif;oljynfom; vltrsm;wkdYESifhqkdifonfh ta&;pwJh ta&;toD; w,f/
oD;wkdYay:aygufvmwJhtcg? ta&;BuD;&if BuD;wJhtvkduf? ta&;i,f&if
i,fwt hJ vku d ?f &[ef;ynm&S?d ykPmÖ ;ynm&S?d rSL;rwfynm&S?d t&yfom;ynm&Sd (2) qGwfysHYbG,fatmif&wk tajz
rsm;&JU tvdq k E´t,ltqrsm;udk pkpH rf;ar;jref;Ny;D awmhr?S trIuo kd ifah wmfovdk bkd;awmfbk&m;&JUom;awmfBuD; Oy&mZm tdrfa&SUrif;om;[mvnf;
aqmif&Gufavh&Sdygw,f/ udk,fhtvdkqE´ udk,fht,ltqtwkdif; igwaum crnf;awmfenf;wl ynmA[kow k tifrwefvv kd m;ygw,f/ tdraf &SUoHawmf
aumNy;D vky½f ;dk xk;H pHr&Sv
d yS gbl;/ tJ'gudk q&mu tck oufaoom"ueJY t qifh OD;wk;d udk q&mwifNy;D ? tNrrJ jywf pkpH rf;ar;jref;avh&ydS gw,f/ tJonfvkd
xift&Sm;jycsifwmygyJ/ pkpH rf;ar;jref;avh&ydS u
Hk kd OD;wk;d u a[monfvkd ud, k af wGrY w
S w
f rf;wifcw
hJ mudk
awGY&ygw,f/
(1) tar;awmfykHtajzusrf; om;awmf Oy&mZmtdraf &SUrif;onf cJcufeufeaJ om ynmawmf
vGecf w
hJ hJ ok;H -av;ESpaf vmufu t*Fg 20 ausmaf usm&f w
dS hJ aypmwpf &Sad wmfrí
l usr;f *ef? &mZ0if? aA'if? tvuFm? uAsm? armfueG ;f ? {csi;f
xkyfudk? rEÅav;wuúodkvf jrefrmpmuxdu OD;armifarmifwifqDu iSm;NyD; paom enf;eme,wkdYudk BuHpnfawmfrlavh&SdonfwGif? usrf;*efESifh
172 173
 qkdifvQif uHtcGJ? wdxDpuf aA'ifESifhqkdifvQif "mwftcGJ? em&Dpuf? tJonftrdefYawmftwkdif; rif;BuD;oD&dr[maZ,sol[m rEÅav;
&mZ0ifESifhqkdifvQif r[mor®wrif;rSpí pum;BuD;? pum;csyf? t aejynfawmfrSm pmrlawGtrsm;tjym;pkaqmif;NyD; avhvmcJhygw,f/ ,ck
vuFm? o'´gESiq hf ikd v
f Qif yom'? a'go? enf;av;q,f? Oypmq,fyg;? tcg urÇmhwuúodkvfawGrSm okawoejyKykHrsKd; jyKcJhwmygyJ/ odkYaomfvnf;
armfuGef;ESifhqkdifvQif r*FvmapwDzGJY? 0wf½kH? &Spf&Sm;uef? rif;uef? rif;BuD; BudK;pm;avhvmcJhwJhvkyfief;&JU tusKd;aus;Zl;udk? q&mwkdY ,aeYwkdif
ajymifrGef? a&Tpmwkdif? ykHawmifEkdif? oajyvm;? awmvm;? a&vm;? rcHpm;&ao;bl; xifygw,f/ bmhaMumifv h q
J adk wmh tJonfrif;Bu;D &JU pmay
awmifwiG ;f vm;paom armfueG ;f rsm;wGif cJ&mcJqpf? &wk? ysKUd ? vuFmESihf orkid ;f [m? ,aeYwidk f b,forl QrawG&Y bJ wdrjf rKyaf evdyYk gyJ/ rif;Bu;D &JU vuf&m
qkid v
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f v D 0Ho? &Si&f |om&? awmifirl if;? e0a';wkYd qkcd o hJ nfh udk &SmzkdYwm0ef[m tawmfyJta&;BuD;aeygw,f/
pmrsm;wGif cJ&mcJqpfpum;pkwu Ydk kd ar;jref;ajymqkad wmfral vh&o dS nf/
tJonfvkd cJ&mcJqpfwu Ydk kd pkpH rf;ar;jref;avh&o dS nfth wkid ;f ? oHawmf (4) u0dvu©PmowfykH
qifh OD;wkd;udk ewfoQifaemif&JU ]qGwfysHUbG,fatmif} &wktaMumif;ar;vdkY? pmaybufuaeNyD; owfykH? t&pf? tyifhbufudk qufMunfhMu&
OD;wk;d u a&;om;ajzqkcd w hJ hJ tajzusr;f [m ,aeYtxd xif&mS ;qJ jzpfygw,f/ atmif/ jrefrmpmudak &;wJt h cg b,fae&mrSm ]w} owf&r,f? b,fae&mrSm
]y}owf&r,f? b,fpmvk;H usawmh &&pfNy;D ? b,fpmvk;H usawmh ,yif&h r,fqdk
(3) jrefrmpmayorkdif; wJh tcuftcJawG &Sdaeygw,f/ tJonftcuftcJawGaMumifh vlawG[m
pmayeJyY wfoufwu hJ pd w
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rif; w&m;Bu;D [m yd#uwfo;Hk yku H kd okwof if&iS ;f vif;awmfrcl w hJ ,f/ "r®owf aygh/ tJ'gaMumifh [Hom0wDa&mufrif;vufxufrSm udk;odef;ocif bk&if
usr;f ? aq;usr;f ? aA'ifusr;f ? &mZ0ifusr;f ? pma[mif;pmwrf; t&yf&yfrsm; rif;acgifu? a&Tawmif &mZausmb f &YJG OD;Moudk owfyu Hk sr;f wpfck jyKpak y;ygvdYk
udv
k nf; okwo f if&iS ;f vif;cJwh ,f/ 'gwifruao;bJ ysKUd vuFm jrefrmpmay ckdif;w,f/ tJonfawmh OD;Mou u0dvu©PmowfykH oHayguftyk'faygif;
t&yf&yfudkvnf; okwfoif&Sif;vif;zkdY? ajrmifvSNrdKUpm;rif;BuD; oD&dr[m 1790 ausmaf usmu f kd a&;cJyh gw,f/ a&;&wJt h aMumif;udv k nf; a[monfvkd
aZ,soludk tyfESif;ckdif;apawmfrlcJhw,f/ tJ'gudk rif;BuD;u a[monfvdk rSwfwrf;wifcJhygw,f/
rSwfwrf;wifcJhygw,f/ &|om&ausm?f a&S;uay:om;? olawmfp, G pf ?Hk pyfenf;ykEH iS ?hf vlb
Y Hk
ysKUd uAsmqko d nft h &monf &wem 3 yg;*kPEf iS phf yfaomt&m? ½kyf ,ck? a&;rSwfjyKom;? aphikaocsm? ckdifcHh&mudk? vuFmysHUysL;? owfykH
emrfEiS phf yfaomt&m? ynmESiphf yfaomt&m? txl;xl;aombmom xl;jzifh? &SdOD;&nf&nf? quf&rnf[k? jynfjynf½kdufxdefY? ausmfoHtdefY
a0g[m&wkEYd iS phf yfaomt&mcsn;f jzpfí? tu,fíyif &wem 3 yg; om;? ud;k ode;f o Y cif? bk&ifrif;acgif? &efatmifzek ;f &S?d oD&o d "k r®? &mZ
*kP?f ½kyef mrfEiS phf yfaompum; ryg-r&Sad omfvnf;? a0g[m&bmom? "dywd? rdeaYf wmf&í dS ? u0dvu©Pm? zGq YJ ydk g&Si/hf &mZm &mZ? rif;u ponf?
txl;xl;tjym;jym;ESihf pyfvsujf zpfí avhvmvQif bmoEÅ&aqu? rsKd;av;rnfwkdY? EIwfjcnf&G&G? "m&Pjzifh ,Gif;cG rokef? aqmifygukef
bmomxl;? bmomrsK;d wkEYd u Id f vdrm® onf/ okjYd zpfí ysKUd uAsm? armfueG ;f ? avmh/
{csi;f ? vl; wm;? &wkrsm;udk (1) rnfonfrh if;vufxuf? (2) rnfonfh
&[ef;ynm&Sd? rnfonfh vlynm&SdwkdY (3) rnfonfhysKdU? rnfonfhpm (5) rEÅav;owfykHjy|mef;csuf
udak &;onf[k ESpo f uú&mZf tpDtpOfreS u f efí teuft"dymÜ ,f rysuf rEÅav;acwf oDaygrif;w&m;vufxufa&mufawmhvnf;? owfykH
r,Gi;f &atmif trSma&; rif;aZ,sou l ,kwmå ,kwdå oifjh rwf&m&m owfneT ;f t&pftyifeh yYJ wfoufNy;D rSL;Bu;D ? rwfBu;D ? ynm&SBd u;D awGukd awmif
csifhaxmufEdIif;&Snfh &Sif;vif; okwfoifap/ O,smOfawmftpnf;ta0;½k;H rSm pnf;a0;apNy;D ? pkn H n D Ed§ iId ;f qk;H jzwfMuzkYd ckid ;f
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174 175
 tJonf tpnf;ta0;rSmygwJh yk*¾dKvfawGuawmh -
( 1) a&eHacsmif;rif;BuD; OD;a&Tpdk
( 2) cef;ywfrif;BuD; OD;a&Tarmif
( 3) uif;0efrif;BuD; OD;aumif;
( 4) rauG;rif;BuD; OD;vdIif
( 5) aqmrif;BuD; OD;0kduf
( 6) awmifcGifrif;BuD; OD;a&Tokdif;
( 7) a,mrif;BuD; OD;ykBuD;
( 8) vdIif;wufrif;BuD; OD;pHNidrf;
( 9) rif;BuD; OD;bkd;
(10) rif;BuD; OD;atmifudk
(11) rif;BuD; OD;tkd
(12) rif;BuD; OD;Ncdrfh
(13) rif;BuD; OD;zkd;rif;
(14) rif;BuD; OD;&ef
(15) oHawmfqifh OD;vSb;l
(16) oHawmfqifh OD;bD
(17) oHawmfqifh OD;ykav;
(18) pma&;awmfBuD; OD;bkd;vdIifndK
(19) pma&;awmfBuD; OD;armifuav;
(20) ynm0efaxmuf OD;okdif;
(21) a&Twkdufpkd; OD;vef;
(22) ynm&Sd OD;jrifh
(23) trSmawmfa&; OD;bm;
(24) trSmawmfa&; OD;omatmif
(25) pmawmfjyif OD;bm;
(26) ta0;a&muf OD;armifuav;
(27) pmqkdawmf OD;tpf
(28) pmqkdawmf OD;Mu,f
wkYd jzpfMuw,f/ tJonfynm&SBd u;D awGu owfyo
rsK;d udk avhvmNy;D pkn
H n
D E§d iId ;f wkid yf ifMuw,f/ aemufawmh usr;f aygif; 36usr;f
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Ny;D ? oDaygrif;udk tpD&ifcpH m wifoiG ;f wJt h cg rif;w&m;u ]tpnf;ta0;0if
rSL;rwfwpYdk n
Hk D ndE§ iId ;f csuf qufoiG ;f onft
h wkid ;f oifNh y}D vkYd trdecYf srw
S v
f u
dk f
wmygyJ/ tJonfy*k Kd¾ vrf sm;aus;Zl;aMumifh q&mwkYd onfaeYa&;aewJph mawG
[m onfavmufrSefaewmaygh/ ynm&SdawG&JU trnfemrawGudk tckvdk
tjynfhtpkHazmfjy&wm[m ysif;p&mawmhaumif;ygw,f/ 'gayrJh olwkdYcwf
wke;f u jrefrmpmayudk ESpEf pS u f mumavhvmvku d pf m;wJh ynm&Sad wG aygrsm;
wmudk odapcsifvkdY azmfjy&wmyg/
(6) rSefeef;&mZ0iftzGJY
pmayudp?ö owfyu Hk pd uö aeNy;D &mZ0ifbufukd ul;MuygOD;pk/Yd &mZ0if
qkw d mu ud, k vhf rl sK;d &JU a&S;jzpfa&S;a[mif;taMumif; tw¬Kyw Ü ydå gyJ/ rSew
f m
vnf;ygr,f/ <um;wmvnf;ygr,f/ 0gwmvnf;ygr,f/ odaYk omfvnf; &mZ0if
udk a&;azmf&w,fqkdwJh vlrsKd;[m tawmf&Sm;ygw,f/ trSwfwrJhaeNyD; t
rSww f rJh aooGm;wJh vlrsK;d awGom rsm;ygw,f/ q&mwkYd jrefrmrif;awGxrJ mS
&mZ0ifudk a&;azmf&wJhrif;uawmh bBuD;awmfygyJ/ &mZ0ifqkdwm[m (1)
rif;a&;udprö mS a&m (2) wkid ;f a&;udprö mS a&m (3) omoema&;udprö mS a&m twkid ;f
t&Snyf rmPjywJh csed cf iG Bf u;D eJw Y wl ,f/ a&S;u &mZ0ifawG[m rltapmifapmif
uGNJ y;D cRwcf Rw,f iG ;f ,Gi;f jzpfaew,f/ &mZ0ifrmS ;&if rif;a&;udp?ö wkid ;f a&;udp?ö
omoema&;udpaö wGrmS tusK;d ysurf ,f/ 'gaMumifh &mZ0iftopfwpfapmif
jyKpkay;ygqkdNyD; atmufyg &[ef;ynm&Sd? ykPÖm;ynm&Sd? vlynm&SdawGudk
awmif;yefcidk ;f apwJt h wGuf rSeef ef;&mZ0ifqNdk y;D r[m&mZ0ifBu;D wpfapmif
ay:aygufvmcJh&w,f/
( 1) rkHa&G;q&mawmf
( 2) aomfuyif q&mawmf
( 3) armif;axmifvlxGufBuD;
( 4) OD;a&muf
( 5) OD;csed f
( 6) OD;azsmf
( 7) ykPÖm; aZ,sa'0
Hk wfneT ;f cGxJ m;usr;f trsK;d ( 8) ykPÖm; ukrk`E´
( 9) OD;a&T
d ef mzkpYd onfjzifh jy|mef; (10) OD;vlBuD;
177
 (11) OD;atmifom (1) ppfukdif;NrdKUu q&mOD;a&Tyk? touf 63 ESpf
(12) aqmNrdKUpm; (2) opkd;u q&mOD;pdrfh? touf 63 ESpf
(13) pOfhul;NrdKUpm; ( 3) tdrfa&SUrif;orD;0ef OD;uH? touf 50 ESpf
tJonfyk*¾dKvfpkudk yXrorkdif;aumfr&SifBuD;vkdY aqmif;yg;wpfckrSm ( 4) vuFawm&Gmu q&maMumif? touf 98 ESpf
awGvY u
dk &f ygw,f/ olaY cwfotYl cgeJq
Y &dk if tifrwefcs;D usL;xku
d w
f hJ aumfr&Sif ( 5) vuFawm&Gmu q&m Owår
BuD;ygyJ/ ( 6) &Gmaxmifu q&maomf? touf 73 ESpf
( 7) pvif;u q&macsm
(7) ukef;abmif&mZ0iftzGJY ( 8) pvif;u q&m&pf
wpfcg? rif;wkef;rif;vufxuf a&mufjyefawmh ukef;abmifquf ( 9) jA[®'wf&Gmu q&mOD;cspfyGifh
&mZ0ifBu;D udak &;zkYd &mZ0iftzGw YJ pfcu k kd rif;wke;f rif;Bu;D u ceft
Y yfjyefw,f/ (10) a&TMuuf,ufu q&maxG;
yg0ifwJhyk*¾dKvfawGuawmh - wkjYd zpfMuw,f/ pkpH rf;ar;jref;yku H awmh onfvydk g/ bk;d awmfrif;w&m;Bu;D &JU
(1) awmifaqmifawmfrdbk&mh q&mawmf orm;awmfouú0g'd,u aq;q&mBu;D awGukd wpfO;D pD wpfO;D pDac:Ny;D rif;
(2) armif;axmifq&mawmf w&m;Bu;D rSmjzpfay:aewJh a&m*gvu©PmawGukd ajymjyw,f/ ok;H aqmifae
(3) ykcef;BuD;q&mawmf wJh 39 yg; Moo"aq;awmfBu;D rSmygwJh aq;trnfawGuv kd nf; ajymjyw,f/
(4) uEét D wGi;f 0ef cHpm;ae&wJah &m*geJY rS0D aJ ewJah q; oifjh rwfyghrvm;/ tjcm;oifah vsmw f ahJ q;
(5) rkdif;ckdif;0ef rsm; ay;Ekid rf vm;vdYk ar;w,f/ tJonftcgrSm orm;Bu;D q,fO;D wku Yd rdrw d Ydk
(6) tdrfa&SUtwGif;0efa[mif; r[mrif;vSocF,m txiftjrifawGukd ajymjyNy;D ? rdrw d Ydk vufawGaY q;rsm;vnf; nTejf yMuw,f/
(7) pma&;awmfBuD; rif;vSaZ,ol OyrmtaeeJY pvif;u q&macsm wGufqkdcsufudk zwfjyyg&ap/
(8) pma&;awmfacgif; aersKd;pnfol&mZm pvif;NrKd Uae aq;orm; iacsmudk ar;aomf - ud, k v
f ufuu kd cf J
wkjYd zpfMuw,f/tJonfynm&Syd *k Kd¾ vBf u;D awG[m pnf;a0;wkid yf ifNy;D awmh olwYdk xkeu f sijf cif;? tom;ta&<ujcif;? wifyg;vufjyifat;jcif;? vnfyif;
jrifwt hJ wkid ;f olwMYdkum;wJt
h wkid ;f ? r,kwrf vGef rydrk ,kad pbJ uke;f abmifquf Oau©mif;rsm;rSm acR;rsm;pGmjyefjcif;? xdyaf &Burd ;f jcif;? vufzsm;ajczsm;
r[m&mZ0ifBuD;udk a&;om;jyKpkcJhMuygw,f/ ydk;y&GufwufouJhokdY xifjcif;? udk,fvufav;vHjcif;? pum;rajym
rqkdcsifjcif;? ikdufrsOf;awGa0jcif;? qD; tvGefrsm;pGm ajymjcif;rsm;udk
(8) bkd;awmfbk&m;\a&m*g pkHprf;jcif; txufpvif;NrKd U awmif;ul;wk&Yd mG ae touf 78 ESpo f l cifBu;D OD;ausmf
&mZ0ifuaeNy;D a&m*geJY aq;0g;taMumif;bufuu kd ;l MuygOD;pk/Yd bk;d ajymqko d nfah q;enf;udk uReaf wmfrw S o
f m;ul;,lí qif;&Jom;wkw Yd iG f
awmfb&k m;[m ynm&Srd sm;udk tNrrJ jywf ar;jref;pkpH rf;avh&w
dS mudk txufu ukozl;onfrSm? vdrf;aq; zGm;buf? azsmufqdyf? vif;av? onf
ajymcJhNyD;ygNyD/ aemufqkH;eef;pH 38 ESpfa&mufwJhtcg rif;w&m;BuD;[m t 3 yg;udk yk;H &nfMunfMunfEiS hf usu J saJ oG;Ny;D vQi?f txufupí atmuf
onf;toef rrmruse;f jzpfawmfryl gw,f/ tJonftcgrSm &mZ&[usr;f xGuf ajczrk;d xd vl;ygonf/ tuku d t
f cJ? txket f usi?f tom;ta& <u
39 yg; Moo"aq;awmfBuD;udk rSD0JokH;aqmifawmfrlw,f/ odkYaomfvnf; jcif;rsm;onf oufomaysmufNidrf;í csrf;omzl;ygonf/ ,ckpGJuyf
oufom&m&awmfrrlvdkY xifygw,f/ EkdifiHawmftwGif;rSm xif&Sm;ausmf onft h emvnf; xkeef mjzpfonf[k txif&ydS gonf/ xGuq f odk nf/
Mum;wJh orm;Bu;D q,fO;D udak c:Ny;D pkpH rf;ar;jref;apawmfryl gw,f/ tJonf tJonfvdkorm;ausmfrsm;u tBuHay;NyD; 0kdif;0ef;ukoMuayr,fh
orm;BuD;awGuawmh vnf;? bkd;awmfrif;w&m;BuD;[m tJonfa0'emawmfu xEkdifawmfrrlbJ
178 179
ewfjynfpHawmfrl&&Smygw,f/ rEÅav;bkd;awmfewfrSm ykPÖm;om;jzpfonf/ aemf&xmrif;apm
vufxuf trwfjzpfí? a&TzsOf;nDaemifwkdY i,f&G,fonfhumv
(9) omoemvuFm&pmwef; aemf&xmrif;apmu tyfí arG;xm;&onfEiS ?hf w½kwjf ynfu jyefonf
jrefrmEkid if u
H kd Ak'o
¨ moemawmfa&mufvmNy;D q&mawmftqufquf umv rEÅav;wGif bkd;awmfwyfvnf; cs&yfonf/ a&TzsOf;nDaemif
omoemjyKpkawmfrlMuwJh omoe0HotquftEG,ftaMumif;udk a&S;a&S; wku Yd vkd nf; uGyrf su&f onf/ trdeaYf wmfEiS zhf rf;qD;vm&m bk;d awmfu
q&mBu;D rsm;u a&;om;rSww f rf;wifcMhJ uygw,f/ okaYd omfvnf; wpfapmif vnf;? ausmufqif½yk u f kd csnrf ef;pGyíf qifjzpfvQif pD;eif;xGuaf jy;rnf
wpfzwYJG nf; pnf;pnf;½k;H ½k;H awmhr&Sb d ;l / tuGu
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JG jym;jym;jzpfaew,f/ tJ'g BuHpnf&SdaeonfhtwGif;zrf;rdí? rEÅav;t&yfwGifowfí ewfjzpf
aMumifh bBuD;awmfrif;w&m;u armif;axmifq&mBuD; ynm&Sd rif;wkdifyif onf/ aoonfumv ]vufwqpfrS tjypf r&S}d [k jrnfwrf;onfukd
trwf r[m"r®oBuøudk? trSwftom;trsKd;rsKd;eJY nd§EdIif;NyD; omoem0if taMumif;jyKí? ewf½kyfrSmvnf; vufqpfjy[ef xkvkyf&Sdonf/ a&T
wpfapmif a&;om;ay;zkdY ckdif;apawmfrlygw,f/ tJonftcg armif;axmif zsO;f nDaemifwYdk tbk;d ac:onfukd taMumif; jyKí rEÅav;bk;d awmf[k
q&mBuD;u a&;om;qufoGif;vkdY? ,cktcg omoemvuFm&pmwrf;qkdwJh wGio f nf/
Ak'¨omoemorkdif;udk? q&mwkdY zwf½IavhvmcGifh &Muygw,f/ ewfo/H igwkv H Qiv f nf; vlwiG f xif&mS ;? ykPmÖ ;om;wJ/h rif;zsm;
i,frS &mZm? aemf&xmonf? rsuyf g rmefc?k a&TzsO;f nDaemif? tkwf
(10) 37 rif; ewfpkHprf;csuf ESpcf syu
f yf? vyfonfraI Mumif?h r½Ii,frrS jrif? roGeo f if[?k ewf&iS f
jrefrmhb0rSm ewfawG[m tawmfta&;yg t&ma&mufwmudk BuKd uf i,frS rif;jrwf? nDaemifEpS yf g;? ESirhf jcm; onf? ightm;owfv?Ykd ewf
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180 181

Dr. Than Tun
(memoirs & observations)
History of Modern Myanma
[1752-1948]
Than Tun
M.A.,B.L.,Ph.D.,D.Lit.(London)
Continued from last issue
MINDON MIN
(1852-1878)
He was entirely different form his predecessors.
He was peaceful in nature and was also a man of
sound common sense. He always tried his best to
avoid bloodshed and violence. But in his foreign
dealings he was not very much diplomatic although
he proved to be a very agreeable man to get along
with. The missionary Dr. Mark said that Mindon
Min was every inch a King. He was also deeply
religious and at the same time he was tolerant to
other religions like Christianity and Mohamme-
danism. He allowed the propagation of these reli-
gious in his country. But he had a peculiar idea about
the English system of government.The phongyis
in Myanma were respected and they had a consider-
able influence ever the King in some political
affairs. Mindon Min thought that an English clergy
would have a similar influence over his monarch.
Therefore he desired Dr. Mark to influence Queen
182
Victoria to return the Province of Bago to him. But this was not
possible and it showed that the King was ignorant of the organi-
zation of a modern state under a constitutional monarch. Mindon
Min was born on 5 July 1814. His name was Maung Lwin and
he was created the Myosa of Mindon. After the defeat of Pagan
Min in the Second English-Myanma War. Mindon Min went to
Shwebo and raised the standard of rebellion. He was successful
because Pagan Min was extremely unpopular. He was also helped
by his brother Maung Gauk and U Kaung. When he became
King on 17 February 1853 he appointed his brother Maung Gauk,
Ainshemin (Heir Apparent). Shwepyiwunggyi U Kaung was
also made the chief Minister. This minister also proved to be an
able administrator. Thus Mindon Min had good people around
him to help him in the management of the state affairs. Although
it was a usurpation, his ascendency to throne was acclaimed by
people in general.
THE DOMESTIC AFFAIRS OF KING MINDON
(Moving to a new Capital)
When Mindon Min came to the throne in 1852 the capital
was Amarapura. After five years at Amarapura he wanted to
build a new capital, because there was a prophecy that one lives
long in the shadows of the Mandalay hill. In accordance with
the prophecy the King built his new capital at the foot of the
Mandalay hill. He called this new city Ratanapura (Yadanabon)
‘the City of Gems’. But it was popularly known as Mandalay.
In accordance with the belief that men burried alive at the gates
shall protect the city from enemies, fiftytwo men and children
were buried three each at twelve gates, one at each four corners,
one at each four stookades and four palace gates and four under
the principle throne. So the total is fifty two. When Mindon
Min was asked by an English envoy about it, he denied any
knowledge of it and said that no such things were done in
building his city. In comparasion with Amarapura, Mandalay
is a better site but it is not as good as Ava. So we cannot say
that this business of having a new city built was not a wise
move.
183
RELIGIOUS POLICY
Mindon Min tried to appear like a very religious person.
He would help enormously the propagation and extension of
the Buddha’s Religion. But at the same he was tolerant to all
religions. He even helped the Christian Missionaries with
money and lands. On 4 May 1868 the engraving of the whole
se of three Pitakas on 729 stone slabs was finished and these
Pitakea stones were placed in the Kuthodaw pagoda. He placed
a new ‘hti’ on the Shwedagon Pagoda. This ‘hti’ cost 6 lakhs
of rupees and weighed 1 1/3 tons. With the permission of the
English government the ‘hti’ was sent to Yangon as the King’s
present to the Shwedagon Pagoda Trustee and it was fixed on
the pagoda on 26 November 1871. King Mindon also built the
Kuthodaw Pagoda after the model of Shwezayan of Bagan.
Besides, he distinguished himself as the Convener of fifth
Buddhist Synod (Pancama Sangayana) that began on 15 April
1871 and finished on 12 September 1871. About 24,000 monks
attended the convention and all of them were from all Myanma
and Srilanka. They assembled at the Myaynan palace for nearly
five months. They recited the Teaching of Buddha and edited
them before they put them in writing. In this way Mindon Min
received the proud title of the convenor of fifth Buddhist Synod.
It is said that he spent Rs 226,000,000 (two twenty six million
kyats) on charity only. This big amount of money was not all
his own. He was alleged of misappropriating state money by
one of an ancient minister in his famous treatise on politics
called Rajadhammasaniaha.
THE REFORMS OF MINDON MIN
(i) Coinage introduced
Mindon Min had a mint built in the palace yard in 19
October 1865 and coins minted to the value of one kyat were
in circulation on 11 November 1865. Before this introduction
although we used gold, silver and copper instead of coins as
mediums of exchange. Therefore there was great difficulty in
commercial dealings. There were some coins minted during
the times of Anaukphitlun (1606-1628) Badon Min (1782-
184
1819), Thayawady Min (1837-1846) and Pagan Min (1846-
1853), but the coins were not made legal tender and therefore
they did not serve as currency. Their coins were largely used
as medals of honour. But now in 1865, Mindon Min minted
gold and silver coins as currency. Shwe-din-ga Mu-se is worth
about three reupees and Mat-se, seven rupees. So the ratio was
one golden coin to 28 rupees. Rakhine was using coins earlier
than Myanma coins were introduced into Rakhine since 1660
and India was using coins 1000 years before the Christian Era.)
(ii) Abolition of Myosaship
Myosa means giving the right to a person ‘to eat’ the
revenues of a town or in other word he was made the Lord of
the Town. Myanmar Kings were in the habit of making Myosas
for service for favour and the officers of the King were not
given monthly salaries. Instead they were given towns ‘to eat’.
But Mindon Min introduced for the first time in Myanma ‘the
Salary System’. So it was no longer necessary to confer
Myosaship on the officers. Thus Myosaship was abolished.
(iii) Establishing the Salary System and Public Treasuries
Revenues were received both in cash and kind. But when
coinage was introduced the King demanded revenues in cash
only. Therefore public treasuries were established in all
important towns throughout the country. He also introduced
the monthly paying system to the King’s servants and therefore
a public treasury in every important town was necessary for
the proper management of this new salary system. By
introducing these two system, Mindon Min hoped to achieve,
a sound administration free from bribery and corruption.
Unfortunately these two new systems were not successful.
(iv) New Revenue System
Before Mindon Min there was no proper system of
taxation. According to Myanma political thought, the first King
on this earth was Manu, who was also called Mahathamada
and he was elected to enforce law and order and in remuneration
to his services the people gave him every year 1/10 of their
annual income. But actually, it was exacted 50% or more. The
185
collection of the taxes was also in the ‘farm’ method. The result
of this system was that the government always got less than
what the people had given. So Mindon Min introduced in Tha-
thameda Tax. Each group of ten houses was required to give
Rs.100/. as Thathamada tax annually. But each house did not
pay the same amount. The rich pay more and the amount to be
given by each home was decided by village elders or Ten House
Leaders. The tax collected was sent to the treasury. Mindon Min
intend to tax only the Thathamada and to abolish other taxes,
like tolls at checking points and ferries. But later, Thathamada
was not the only tax but one of many other taxes. Other sources
of income came form duties on imports and exports. Mindon
Min collected a 5% uniform custom duty. The King also
enjoyed monopoly on precious stones and timber. Another
source of income from tributes sent to him by the subject
princes.
(v)Encouragement of Industry and Commerce
Inspite of his numerous monopolies, Mindon Min encoura-
ged industries. A good number of factories were established
under European supervision to make fire arms, to coin money,
to cast iron and to refine petroleum. He also introduced sending
message by telegraph.
(vi) Reform in the Armed Forces
The army was badly in need of reform. But Mindon Min
was supposed to be a peace-loving monarch who had no use
of any army. Yet reforms were introduced as regards discipline
and weapons. European officers were employed to teach
Myanma soldiers on use of new arms and new military tactics.
Some youths were sent to France for military training. But all
these things were done not seriously and there were no real
improvements. Another reason for failures in this aspect was
that Mindut Min who took the initiation for these reforms was
assassinated in this uprising of Mingum and Mingondaing
princes. On the death of Mindon Min army reforms, etc. were
abandoned. There was also no founds enough to carry out all
these reforms.
186
CRITICAL REMARKS ON THESE REFORMS
Mindon Min reforms looked good on paper but most of
them were never carried out. Administration was still not sys-
tematic. The most fertile parts of Myanma were lost to the English
who started various programmes of improving that part of the
country under them. Lower Myanma under the English was
progressing by leaps and bounds. Between 1852 and 1862, the
population there had increased from 6,000 to one million. This
was because people from Upper Myanma went there to get more
land under cultivation. During 1826 and 1855, 250,000 people
from Upper Myanma went over to Rakhine. After 1869, (opening
of Suez Canal) migration to lower country increased more
rapidly. Europeans were also competing among themselves to
extend their empires in Americas, Africa and Asia. They wanted
markets for their manufactured goods and they wanted raw
materials to feed their industries. Myanma proved to be a very
good place for this kind of economic exploitation. From among
the products of Myanma, rice, timber and earth oil were in good
demand. Although it was not the only cause the opening of the
Suez Canal made possible the change from domestic economy
in Myanma into commercial economy. It means that formerly
rice was grown for home consumption alone but now it was
for export also. In such a period of transition, the condition in
lower Myanma under the English were much more favourable.
REBELLIONS DURING THE TIME OF MINDON MIN
The theory of Myanma Kingship was quite different from
the Divine Right Theory of Kingship in Europe. In Myanma the
claim to rule was through conquest and only after conquest that
a king might marry a princes of the fallen dynasty and establish
another claim to rule. The eldest son was not necessarily the
successor and a king would name the next king. Even this kind
of nonimation was sometimes ignored when the king died.
Alaungmintaya ordered that all of his sons must rule one after
another in succession. But Myaydu Min left aside this order and
made his son Singu Min the King. After Singu Min the fourth
son of Alaungmintaya called Badon Min became King. But he
187
did not give the throne to his next brother. Thayawady Min uG e f o m,m
was succeed by his son Pagan Min. But he as dethroned and
succeeded by his brother Mindon Min. Mindon Min in fact
was a usurper. Mindon Min appointed his brother Mindut Min
as Ain-she Min or Uparaja or crown Prince. Min Gun Min wanted
this position and he and his brother Min Gon Daing rebelled
with the intention to kill both his father and his uncle. Fortunately
Mindon Min escaped but Mindut Min was assassinated on 2
August 1866. The rebellion was quickly subdued and the two wpfacwf wpfa,muf qdkavmufol
rebel princes escaped into lower Myanma. The English sent them
to Calcutta. From there they escaped to French Indo-China.
When the Crown Prince died, his sons rebelled. The leader a'gufwmoef;xGef;
Ba Dain was captured and executed on 15 May 1867 in that
same year 1867, Katha Min rebelled also. But this rebellion was
subdued also and because of Dr. Mark intervantion Mindon
Min forgave, the prince and his followers. All these rebellions
clearly pointed out the fact that the dynasty was falling quickly. Dr Than Tun,
Mindon Min thought it expedient not to appoint another Crown
Prince. He died on 1 October 1878. When he was seriously ill, The One and Only of Myanma
Queen Sinbyumashin and party chose Thibaw Min as successor
against princes. Thonze, Mekkhaya and Nyaungyan who had
better claims than Thibaw to the throne. Mindon Min had 48
sons and all of them were eligible for the throne. Apart from
them there were nephews and grandsons of former kings, each
of whom would try to become a king when the circumstances
were favourate. Thibaw Min had no choice but to carry out the
massacre of Kinsmen. Seventy princes and princesses were
killed. The kind of blood-bath was almost a recognised institution
a'gufwmoef;xGef; trSwfw&pmrsm;
in Myanma and we cannot hold Thibaw Min to be personally
responsible. It was the want of a law for succession and the
instability of the government that such a purge was always a
necessity on the beginning of each reign or even during the
trSwf 217? yxrxyf(0J)? qdyfurf;omvrf;(tv,f)?

3100530708
reign of a king.
To be continued- ausmufwHwm;NrdKYe,f? &efukefNrdKY /
zkef; 095193106 ^ 384199
Than Tun

188 189