UNDERSTANDING

WARNING,
BULLETINS AND
ADVISORIES

P r e s e n t e d b y :

ROMEO B GANAL, Jr.

METEOROLOGIST
 PAGASA
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Enhancement of Early Warning Service
Color-coded Warning System

Hazards Signal/Warning
Tropical Cyclone
TCWS 1 TCWS 2 TCWS 3 TCWS 4 TCWS 5

Heavy Rainfall
Advisory Alert Emergency

Thunderstorm Advisory
Information Watch

Floods Flood Advisory/Bulletin

Storm Surge Storm Surge Bulletin
Gale Gale Warning
Extreme Temperature Heat Index
 EYE WALL
TROPICAL
EYE
CYCLONE
(BAGYO)
A weather disturbance with low
pressure characterized by very
strong winds blowing
counterclockwise, heavy rainfall
and even tornadoes.
PAGASA CLASSIFICATION OF TC
• TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) - a tropical cyclone with maximum
sustained winds of up to 61 kilometers per hour (kph) or less than 33
nautical miles per hour (knots) .

• TROPICAL STORM (TS) - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed

of 62 to 88 kph or 34 - 47 knots.

• SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (STS) -a tropical cyclone with maximum

wind speed of 89 to 117 kph or 48 - 63 knots.

• TYPHOON (TY) - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 118 to

220 kph or 64 - 120 knots.

• SUPER TYPHOON (STY) - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind

speed exceeding 220 kph or more than 120 knots.
TC WARNING SYSTEM
• TC Information will
be provided when
over the WN Pacific
Ocean outside PAR

• TC Advisory over
green area.

• Tropical Cyclone
Bulletin over the
Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR)
in red
 TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING
Y- AXIS = Latitude
90°N
Northern
Hemisphere
60°N

30°N

5°N

EQUATOR

5°S

30°S
Southern
60°S Hemisphere

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING

Northern
Hemisphere

0° X- AXIS = Longitude

180°W 60°W 30°E 90°E 150°E

120°W
150°W 90°W 30°W 60°E 120°E 180°E

Southern
Hemisphere

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING SAMPLE PLOT :

25°N, 135°E
50°N

45°N

40°N

35°N

30°N

25°N

20°N

15°N

10°N

110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 150°E 155°E 160°E

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 WEATHER ADVISORIES
• For tropical cyclone: when the Tropical Cyclone is still
outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and it
is expected to enter the area within the next 5 days.

• For Southwest Monsoon, Low Pressure Area (LPA) and other

severe weather systems: it describes the expected weather
condition in affected areas and its duration

• The frequency of issuance is twice a day at 11 AM and 11 PM.

 TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETINS
Weather Bulletins shall be increased from twice
daily (at 11:00 AM and 11:00 PM) to four times
daily (at 5:00 AM, 11:00 AM, 5:00 PM, and 11:00
PM). With these changes, Severe Weather
Bulletin issuances shall no longer be subdivided
into Tropical Cyclone Alert and Tropical Cyclone
Warning forms.
 TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETINS
To ensure consistency of content with Tropical Cyclone
Advisories, the TC Bulletins shall now include forecast
intensities in terms of tropical cyclone category.

The forecast positions and intensities of tropical cyclones

shall now be provided in all products at 12-hour intervals
up to 72-hour forecast and at 24-hour intervals beyond 72-
hour forecast. As such, the forecast positions and
intensities shall be provided at 12-hour, 24-hour, 36-hour,
48-hour, 60-hour, 72-hour, 96-hour, and 120-hour marks.
TCB INTERPRETATION
Number of bulletin issued
and time of issuance

Impact statement

Central Location
Intensity
Current Movement
Extent of TC Winds
TCB INTERPRETATION
PAGASA CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY

Area of Probability

5 day forecast
Position

Current Location
TCB INTERPRETATION
Intensity in 12hr Interval

Movement in 12hr interval

Center/ eye location

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCB INTERPRETATION
Hazard Affecting Land Areas
> Heavy Rainfall
> Severe Winds

Hazard Affecting Coastal Areas

Track and Outlook

Next Issuance
 1 2 3 4

2021 2022 2023 2024

2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2030 2031 2032
2033 2034 2035 2036

AURING AGATON AMANG AGHON

BISING BASYANG BETTY BUTCHOY
CALOY CHEDENG CARINA
NAMES OF CRISING
DANTE DOMENG DODONG DINDO
EMONG ESTER EGAY ENTENG
TROPICAL FABIAN
GORIO
FLORITA
GARDO
FALCON
GORING
FERDIE
GENER
HENRY HANNA HELEN
CYCLONE HUANING
ISANG INDAY INENG IGME
JOSIE JENNY JULIAN
JOLINA
IN THE KIKO
KARDING
LUIS
KABAYAN
LIWAYWAY
KRISTINE
LEON
LANNIE
MAYMAY MARILYN MARCE
PHILIPPINES MARING
NANDO
NENENG
OBET
NIMFA
ONYOK
NIKA
OFEL
ODETTE PAENG PERLA PEPITO
PAOLO QUEENIE QUIEL QUERUBIN
QUEDAN ROSAL RAMON ROMINA
RAMIL SAMUEL SARAH SIONY
SALOME TOMAS TAMARAW TONYO
TINO UMBERTO UGONG UPANG
UWAN VENUS VIRING VICKY
VERBENA WALDO WENG WARREN
WILMA YAYANG YOYOY YOYONG
YASMIN ZENY ZIGZAG ZOSIMO
ZORAIDA
ALAMID AGILA ABE ALAKDAN
BRUNO BAGWIS BERTO BALDO
Auxiliary Names CONCHING CHITO CHARO CLARA
DOLOR DIEGO DADO DENCIO
ERNIE ELENA ESTOY ESTONG
FLORANTE FELINO FELION FELIPE
GERARDO GUNDING GENING GARDO
HERNAN HARRIET HERMAN HELING
ISKO INDANG IRMA ISMAEL
JEROME JESSA JAIME JULIO
 Ready Set Go

Seasonal to Monthly TC
forecasts 2-week TC-forecasts 5-day TC-forecasts
 RAINFALL WARNING SYSTEM
(RWS)
“RWS empowers The Rainfall Warning System is an end-to-
people to take end decision support tool designed to
action when disaster
is about to happen”
provide meaningful information to
decision-makers, stakeholders and
communities to protect lives, livelihood
and property about heavy rainfall events
that would cause or aggravate flooding.
Thunderstorm Warning Rainfall Warning
Thunderstorm Advisory Rainfall Advisory
Thunderstorm Forecast Heavy Rainfall Warning
Thunderstorm Warning Levels

• Thunderstorm Information
• This is intended to issue an information if thunderstorm
is LESS LIKELY to develop in the next 6 hours

• Thunderstorm Watch
• This is intended to issue an information if thunderstorm
is MORE LIKELY to develop in the next 6 hours
Thunderstorm Warning Levels
• Thunderstorm Advisory
• This is intended if a thunderstorm already
developed that is affecting or may affect the
warning area
• The current warning contains the associated
hazards of thunderstorm i.e. heavy rains, strong
winds and possible hail or tornado
• It supersedes thunderstorm watch or information
Thunderstorm Advisory
Thunderstorm Warning System Updating and Dissemination

PAGASA Website
Social Media
SMS to UA Station

PAGASA Website
Social Media
SMS to UA Station

PAGASA Website
Social Media Page, Groups
SMS inc. Messenger, Viber
Media Broadcast
Rainfall Warning System Workflow
Rainfall Advisory
• This level is defined as weather system driven rainfall
event that is below the color coded rainfall warning that
will cause inconvenience to the community.
 Rainfall Intensity
Descriptive Quantitative
Intensity Equivalent
1 hr rainfall: <2.5 mm
3 hr rainfall: <7.5 mm
6 hr rainfall: <15.0 mm
LIGHT 12 hr rainfall: <30.0 mm
24 hr rainfall: <60.0 mm
1 hr rainfall: 2.5 - 7.5 mm
3 hr rainfall: 7.5 – 22.5 mm
6 hr rainfall: 15.0 – 45.0mm
MODERATE 12hr rainfall: 30.0 – 90.0mm
24hr rainfall:60.0–180.0 mm
1 hr rainfall: >7.5 mm
3 hr rainfall: >22.5 mm
6 hr rainfall: >45.0 mm
HEAVY 12 hr rainfall: >90.0 mm
24 hr rainfall: >180.0 mm
Criteria for visual determination of
intensity
Individual drops are easily seen; slight spray is
observed over pavements; puddles form slowly; over
two minutes may be required to wet pavements
completely; sound on roofs ranges from slow
pattering to gentle swishing; steady small streams
may flow in gutters and downspouts.
Individual drops are not clearly identifiable; spray is
observable just above pavements and other hard
surfaces, puddles form rapidly; downspouts on
building seen ¼ to ½ full; sound on roofs rang from
swishing to gentle roar.
Rain seemingly falls in sheets; individual drops are
identifiable; heavy spray to height of several inches
is observed over hard surfaces; downspouts run
more than ½ full; visibly is very much reduced;
sounds on roof resembles rolls of drums or distant
roar.
Very Light Rains/ Rainshowers
Scattered drops that do not completely wet an exposed surface regardless of duration.
Light Rains / Rainshowers
• The rate of fall is from trace to 2.5 mm per hour.
• Individual drops easily identified and puddles(small muddy pools) form slowly.
• Small streams may flow in gutters.
Moderate Rains/ Rainshowers
• The rate of fall is between 2.5 mm to 7.5 mm per hour.
• Puddles rapidly forming and down pipes flowing freely.
Heavy Rains / Rainshowers
• The rate of fall is greater than 7.5 mm per hour.
• The sky is overcast, there is a continuous precipitation.
• Falls in sheets, misty spray over hard surfaces.
• May cause roaring noise on roofs.
Rainfall Advisory Sample
Heavy Rainfall Warning System

• The HRWS is designed

• whenever a synoptic-scale weather systems are expected
to bring long duration or widespread heavy rainfall over
the warning area.
• to have a three color-coded levels are Yellow and
and Red Warning.
• based on the observed and forecast amount and duration of
rainfall.
• to provide information about its associated effects and
what actions to take by the public.
Heavy Rainfall Warning Levels
RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING LEVELS
FOR METRO MANILA
YELLOW RAINFALL ADVISORY Community
Rainfall of 7.5 to 15 mm accumulated in 1 hour
has fallen or expected to fall and most likely to
FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low-lying areas
continue for the next 3 hours.
and near river channels

ORANGE RAINFALL ADVISORY Community

Rainfall of more than 15mm up to 30mm
accumulated 1 hour has fallen or expected to
FLOODING is THREATHENING in low-lying
fall or if continuous rainfall for the past 3 hours
areas and near river channels
is more than 45mm to 65mm and most likely to
continue for the next 3 hours.

RED RAINFALL WARNING Community

Rainfall of more than 30mm within 1 hour has Emergency
fallen or expected to fall or if continuous
SEVERE FLOODING is EXPECTED
rainfall for the past 3 hours is more than
65mm and most likely to continue for the next
Take necessary precautionary measures
3 hours.
 Guidance in the Issuance of Warning
• The issuance of Rainfall Warning should be based on surface,
radar and satellite observations, and forecast rainfall.

• In case of heavy rain suddenly develops a RED Warning may be

issued without being preceded by an ORANGE or Yellow warning.
Warning issuances must be area specific.

• The initial warning can be issued anytime of the day or whenever

the need arises. The succeeding rainfall warnings should
correspond to the observation time (8am, 11am, 2pm, 5pm, 8pm,
11pm, 2am, 5am) still the warning validity is three (3) hours.

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 Heavy Rainfall Warning Sample

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 Dissemination

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
1 mm/h = 1 Liter of water in 1 m2 area per hour
15 mm/h = 15 Liters of water in 1 m2 area per hour
30 mm/h = 30 Liters of water in 1 m2 area per hour

Source: http://androidmobilephonesupdate.blogspot.com/2012/08/pagasa-rainfall-
PAGASA color-coded-warning.html
Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
Design of a Flood Early Warning System
(FEWS)

1. Telemetered or fully automatic system (equipped

with a telecommunication system)
2. Manual system (observation and transmission of
observed data by the community)
3. Combination of telemetered and manual systems

* Should withstand the worst weather condition

Objectives of flood forecasting and
warning system
- to forewarn the people living in the low-lying areas of the increase
in water level of the river and the expected flood situation;
- to forewarn people living in the target area of the dam on the
present and expected flood situation; and
- to alert the agencies concerned with flood control and /or flood
fighting activities in the event of the occurrence of flood.

Flood Forecasting and warning can only be done if a river

system or watershed is equipped with a monitoring
facilities, i.e. rainfall and water level monitoring facilities
and a good communication system.
Criteria for the issuance of Flood Bulletins

Alert The water level at the gauging

station when the channel
Level reach/lake /swamp where the
(L4) station is representing, is
estimated to be 40% full on the
average.
Alarm The water level at the gauging
station when the channel
Level reach/lake /swamp where the
(L6) station is representing, is
estimated to be 60% full on the
average.
Critical The water level at the gauging
station when a certain section of
Level the channel reach/lake/swamp
(L10) where the station is
representing, is estimated to be
100% full.
Flood Forecast Products
1. Hydrological Forecast is a general information/condition of the
river basins which are being monitored by PAGASA. It is prepared
daily during non-flood watch period/ during low flow periods or
when the expected streamflow is generally normal. Hydrological
Forecasts are prepared and uploaded in the PAGASA website by the
Duty Hydrologist.
Time of issuance: 8:00 AM daily, with 24-hours validity period

Contents/Information: present weather system affecting the basin,

observed and forecast rainfall, forecast average stages/discharge of
rivers/lakes/swamps, relevant additional information/comments
Hydrological Forecast Content

River Status River Trend

Flood Forecast Products
2. Basin Bulletin for Pampanga, Agno, Bicol and Cagayan (PABC) River Basins
Basin Flood Bulletins are flood forecasts in the form of warning, which are
prepared twice daily during flood watch. In the event that there is a
significant rise in the water level, an intermediate basin flood bulletin is issued
at 10:00 AM and 10:00 PM. This is being issued by the respective river
centers of Pampanga, Agno, Bicol and Cagayan river basin.
Time of issuance: Twice daily at 4:00 AM and 4:00 PM
Contents/Information: Date and time of issuance, validity period of the
bulletin, average basin rainfall (cumulative), forecast rainfall for the next 24
hours, expected hydrological response of the basin and its tributaries, advice
to the concerned agencies to take appropriate measures.
Flood Forecast Products
3. General Flood Advisory (GFA) is a flood bulletin in general or
simple form. It is a hydrological information for the concerned public
to be aware or prepare for the expected flood or high streamflow. It
is issued to non-PABC river systems (with or without CBFEWS) where
the proximity of the available real-time or near-real-time rainfall
(synoptic, etc.) and/or water level data can serve as inputs. It is
being issued if there is a forecast of significant rainfall based on the
meteorological/numerical models and others, even if the
past/observed rainfall over the concerned area is considered nil.
Time of issuance: Once daily or as the need arises
Contents/Information: present weather, observed rainfall from the
nearest PAGASA synoptic station, forecast rainfall, watercourses that
are likely to be affected expected hydrological response of the river
system, advice to the concerned agencies to take appropriate
measures.
Flood Forecast Products
4. Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operation
(FFWSDO) - an inter-agency collaborative undertaking involving the
following agencies: PAGASA (flood forecasting and warning at the
downstream/target areas of the dam), NPC and NIA (dam operators,
dam discharge warnings), DPWH (river management), NWRB
(monitoring agency) and OCD (monitoring and agency mandated to
disseminate all information). ). In the event that the situation
warrants the operation of the spillway gates, all the agencies are
following an agreed dam discharge and flood warning protocols to
ensure that all the information from the system will provide the safe
and cost-effective operation of the dams and that appropriate
warnings are disseminated to the communities downstream.
PAGASA – provides the meteorological inputs
NPC/NIA – dam operators, provide PAGASA with hydrological
information regarding the reservoir, decision to conduct release of
water/spilling operation
OCD – dissemination of information
Storm surge is a sudden, temporary and abnormal rise of seawater
above normal sea level causing big waves at the coast, generated by
the strong winds and low atmospheric pressure of a Tropical cyclone.

Normal Water Level

How high will the Storm Surge be?
Factors that influence Storm Surge

1. The Right-Front-Quadrant
2. Storm Size and Intensity
3. Storm Forward Speed
4. Central Pressure
5. Angle of Approach
6. Shape of the Coastline
7. Bathymetry
8. Local Features
 Factors that influence Storm Surge
1. Right-Front Quadrant

The maximum effects of a

hurricane are usually felt
within the right-front
quadrant. Here the winds are
usually the strongest, storm
surge is highest.
Factors that influence Storm Surge

2. Storm Size and Intensity

The stronger the
winds of the tropical
cyclone, the lower
the atmospheric
pressure, the higher
the storm surge.
 Factors that influence Storm Surge
3. Storm Forward Speed

The faster the cyclone crosses the coast, the more quickly the surge builds up and the
more powerfully it strikes.

FAST-MOVING CYCLONE: (24 TO 56 KPH)

The surface wind stress is increased in the right-front quadrant thus creating a higher
storm surge on the outer cost versus the storm surge from a slow moving hurricane.

SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE: (0 TO 23 KPH)

A slow moving cyclone may produce the opposite effect inside a bay, or river system.
This is because slow moving cyclones have more time to pump water into inland water
bodies than do fast moving cyclones.
 Factors that influence Storm Surge
4. Central Pressure
Minimal contribution in comparison to the wind.

Tropical Cyclone
Factors that influence Storm Surge
5. Angle of Approach
The more perpendicular the angle of approach to the coast, the
higher the surge.

Perpendicular Approach Parallel Approach Diagonal Approach

 Factors that influence Storm Surge
6. Shape of the Coastline
Storm surge will be higher when a cyclone makes landfall on a
concave coast rather than a convex coast.

Concave Coast (Papaloob) VS. Convex Coast (Papalabas)

 Factors that influence Storm Surge
7. Bathymetry

Before the Surge

Shallow Slope

After the Surge

 Factors that influence Storm Surge
7. Bathymetry
Before the Surge
Steep Slope

After the Surge

 Factors that influence Storm Surge
7. Bathymetry
Before the Surge After the Surge

Shallow Slope VS. Steep Slope

 Factors that influence Storm Surge
8. Local Features

Bays, inlets, headlands, RIVERS

mouths of rivers and
offshore islands can
funnel and heighten BAY
the storm surge.

CONCAVE COAST
Factors that influence Storm Surge
RIVERS
BAY
• Storm Surge Bulletin with Inundation Map
Risk of Storm Surge

LAND LAND WATER LAND

WATER
WATER
(DEFINITELY) SAFE (STILL) SAFE
SAFE
Risk of storm surges is decided by
the difference between water level
WATER and land height.
WATER LAND LAND

DANGEROUS VERY DANGEROUS

ESTIMATING WIND
SPEED
The observation of wind in the
absence of instrument for
measuring wind speed shall be
made by estimation of the wind
force. In the estimation, the
Observer must stand on a flat
open terrain, as far as possible
from obstructions.
Estimate based on the effects of
the wind on movable objects
shall be done using the Beaufort
Scale of wind force.
SEA CONDITION
as affected by Wind Force
(Based from the Beaufort Wind Scale)
Calm
•Ripples with the appearance of scales are formed but without foam crests.

WAVE HT.
UNITS in (MPS) UNITS in (KTS) (METER)

0-1.5 0-3.0 0.1

 •Small waves, becoming longer.
Slight •Fairly frequent white horses.

WAVE HT.
UNITS in (MPS) UNITS in (KTS) (METER)

4.0-8.0 8.0-16.0 0.5-1.25

Moderate
•Moderate waves taking a more pronounced long form.
•Many white horses are formed-a change of some spray.

WAVE HT.
UNITS in (MPS) UNITS in (KTS) (METER)

8.0-11.0 16.0-22.0 1.25-2.5

Rough
•Large waves begin to form.
•Sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves begin to be blown in streaks
along the direction of wind.
WAVE HT.
UNITS in (MPS) UNITS in (KTS) (METER)

11.0-16.0 22.0-32.0 2.5-4.0

Very Rough •Moderately high waves of greater length.
•Edges of crest begin to break into spindrift.
UNITS in UNITS in WAVE HT.
(MPS) (KTS) (METER)
•Foam is blown in well-mark streaks along the
direction of the wind.
16.0-20.0 32.0-40.0 4.0-6.0
For any early warning system to succeed,
several components are necessary:
• Technology to detect and monitor the hazard;
• Communication systems to alert the public;
• Local leaders trained to make the right decisions;
• A public that is educated to react appropriately to warnings; and
• Response protocols — such as evacuation plans — prepared
and rehearsed well in advance of the threat.

All these elements must work well, both individually and

in harmony.

Failure in any one of these elements can mean failure of the

whole early warning system.
 Communication of Early Warning
Information
Accuracy
Skill

disseminate
Warning/
Information
Users
receive
understand
believe

Source: (WMO) Take action

 Thank
nlpagasarsd@gmail.com
You.