School of Engineering and Sciences

Thermodynamics
Dr. Jorge Francisco Estela

Course Project 2021-1

Introduction:

The objective of this exercise is to formulate a number of scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions
and primary energy shares to the year 2050 for the concentration of carbon dioxide not to
exceed 450 ppm in that year. As agreed by the scientific and international community, such
level of carbon dioxide concentration is consistent with the rise in global mean temperature of
about 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period.

One form to express the rate of impact of any environmental agent is with the IPAT identity:

I = P  AT ,

whereby, I is the rate of impact at any time, i.e. the rate of emissions in Mton CO2/year, P is the
population at that time (given in million people), A is the affluence, which in this case is the per
capita energy consumption given in Mtoe/capita/year, and T is a technology factor, i.e. the
intensity of emissions in Mton CO2/Mtoe.

A model of exponential growth gives the rates of growth with time of the factors of the IPAT
model:
P = P0 (1 + rP ) n ; A = A0 (1 + rA ) n ; T = T0 (1 + rT ) n ,

where the subscripts 0 denote the initial year of the time series, r is the percentage growth
rate of the quantity in question and n is the years elapsed from the initial time to the time in
question.

Therefore, the objective of this exercise is to select the set of the growth rates of the variables
of the IPAT model, i.e. P (population), A (affluence), and T (technology factor), such that the
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere does not exceed 450 ppm by the year 2050.

Methodology:

• The baseline of projections is values of the IPAT variables for the year 2018.
• Split the problem into two components: the OECD and the Rest of the World (RoW) such
that there will be a sub-set of the IPAT variables for each of the components.
• World values are the aggregate of the two components (for extensive variables only).
• Choose, by trial and error, the growth rates that make the CO2 concentration converge on
the objective value in 2050.
Facultad de Ingeniería

Calle 18 No. 118-250 Av. Cañasgordas • A.A. No. 26239 • PBX 321 8200 • www.javerianacali.edu.co
 School of Engineering and Sciences
Thermodynamics
Dr. Jorge Francisco Estela

Requested results:

1. The IPAT model.

2. An approximate composition of primary energy sources that would be consistent with the
proposed IPAT model, i.e. TPES and rate of CO2 emissions.

It is very important that the IPAT model and the proposed composition of TPES be realistic in
terms of population, affluence, intensity of emissions, and availability of natural resources.

Analysis of results:

Refer only to YOUR results; do not speculate or write about generalities. Respond the
following:

1. Why did you choose YOUR proposed growth rates of population? Are those growth rates
compatible with the expected changes over the next decades? What are the moral
implications of your proposal?
2. Why did you choose YOUR proposed growth rates of affluence? Are those growth rates
compatible with the expectations about the quality of life in the OECD and RoW countries
and the changes in energy technology?
3. Why did you choose YOUR proposed growth rates of the technology factor in the OECD and
RoW? Are those rates compatible with the expected changes in energy technology?
4. Why did you choose YOUR proposed composition of TPES by the year 2050? Is that proposal
compatible with climate change mitigation?

Facultad de Ingeniería

Calle 18 No. 118-250 Av. Cañasgordas • A.A. No. 26239 • PBX 321 8200 • www.javerianacali.edu.co