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* Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warszawa, Poland. Corresponding author: piotr_sulewski@sggw.pl
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Farmers’ risk perception, risk aversion and strategies to cope with risk
and proper measurement of attitude towards risk is crucial to aspects, risk aversion determines farmer’s decisions on risk
the real understanding of the economic behaviour of farm- mitigation strategies at the farm level. Although risk man-
ers. The propensity to risk affects the choice of appropriate agement strategies in agriculture were a subject of interest to
agricultural policy tailored to the needs of the sector and the some authors (Meuwissen et al., 2000; Nguyen et al., 2007;
national economy. Bard and Barry (2001) stress that under- Akcaoz et al., 2009), the problem of risk aversion and risk
standing how farmers react to risk factors is important not management strategies usually were not analysed jointly.
only for the farmers themselves, but also for the extension Hence the question of the influence of risk aversion on risk
services, the agri-food industry (both supplying farmers with management strategy decisions has not been considered in
production factors and food processing) and authorities. detail.
Most of the studies of farmers’ attitudes to risk concluded In the light of the above evidence, we sought to identify
that the farmers are characterised by risk aversion (OECD, the factors determining the level of risk aversion of Polish
2004; OECD, 2009). farmers, and to find a relationship between the level of risk
Risk aversion is a term that is very difficult to opera- aversion and the chosen risk-coping strategies. We tested
tionalise, nevertheless many researchers make an attempt three hypotheses: (a) Polish farmers can correctly identify
to measure its level. In general, there have been three agricultural risk factors; (b) as in other countries, Polish
approaches towards this issue. The most popular one farmers are risk averse; and (c) the level of risk aversion
assumes that the actor has fixed preferences, which enables affects the choice of risk-coping strategies. The factors
the researcher to determine the actor’s utility function (its influencing the level of farmers’ risk aversion were also
convexity or concavity), thus allowing his or her risk aver- studied.
sion to be assessed (Pennings and Garcia, 2001). Experi-
ments and hypothetical alternatives are usually used to
determine risk aversion using this method. This approach Methodology
was used by Officer and Halter (1968), Lin et al. (1974),
Webster and Kennedy (1975), Dillon and Scandizzo (1978), The sample consists of almost 600 farms participating
Halter and Mason (1978), Young (1979) and Collins et al. in the Polish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN)
(1991). The second approach stands on a position that risk system. They were chosen with the use of stratified random
aversion is a latent feature and can be observed only indi- sampling, taking into consideration: four layers according to
rectly (for example through observing farmers’ investment farming specialisation, three layers according to production
activities). Binswanger (1982) remarked that experiments size and four layers according to regions of the country. The
and hypothetical alternatives in laboratory conditions can number of analysed farms in each layer was calculated with
give different results than real-life situations, thus their the use of the Nayman method in a similar way to which it is
results can be misleading. Robison (1982), Machina (1987) used for choosing the FADN sample (FADN 2008):
and Schoemaker (1991) made similar comments. The
most popular alternative to experiments are various types
of opinion polls (Damodaran, 2009). Participants of such
inquiry are asked to self-assess their risk aversion using an
11-point scale (see for example Spector, 1992 and DeVel- where: nh – sample size in layer h, n – sample size, Nh –
lis, 1991). Research carried out in Germany by Dohmen population size in layer h, σh– standard deviation in layer h,
et al. (2005) on a sample of roughly 22,000 individuals and L – number of layers.
showed that this method gives similar results as other The farmers were surveyed in 2012 by the extension
ways of measuring risk aversion. This method was quite service workers who coordinate FADN data collection.
often used in measuring the attitudes of farmers (Kastens Completed questionnaires were sent to the Institute of Agri-
and Featherstone, 1996; Patrick and Ullerich, 1996; Bard cultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute,
and Barry, 2000; Pennings and Garcia, 2001; Uematsu and Warszawa (the institution responsible for FADN in Poland)
Mishra, 2011). However, some studies have shown incon- and added to the database of appropriate farms studied
sistent results: Bard and Barry (2001) found no correlation within the FADN framework. This allowed the authors to
between self-assessment and other methods such as obser- use a dataset of almost 600 farms, containing both financial
vation of utilisation of risk management tools, and Fausti farm data and farmers’ behavioural data, including attitudes
and Gillespie (2006) pointed out that the self-assessment of towards various types of risks. Stratified random sampling
risk aversion may vary according to the context in which made it possible to represent the structure of farms that is
the question is posed. observed within FADN framework, thus it is representa-
Studies of farmers’ risk perception and aversion are very tive according to economic size, production type and region
rare in Poland as well as other Central and Eastern European (Table 1). However, the FADN covers only farms with stand-
countries. Moreover, most of the available papers concern- ard output above EUR 4 thousand, thus it refers only to the
ing farmers’ risk perception and risk aversion do not discuss farms producing for market (in Poland there are 738 thou-
farmers’ risk management strategies in this context (see sand such farms and they produce almost 90 per cent of total
Kouamé, 2010). According to the dominant economic theory farm output).
of risk by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953), risk aver- Descriptive statistics, correlations and regression analy-
sion determines microeconomic choices of individuals under sis were used to analyse the data, as explained in the follow-
risk and uncertainty. It leads us to conclude that, in practical ing part of the paper.
141
Piotr Sulewski and Anna Kłoczko-Gajewska
Table 1: Average characteristics of the farms of the surveyed farmers according to type of production and economic size, compared to mean
data for the Polish FADN sample.
Category of Utilised agricultural Area of Rented land No. animals per farm Full time employees Farm income
No. farms
farm area (ha) grassland (ha) (ha) (livestock units) per farm (PLN)
Type of production
Crops 96 41.4 1.3 12.7 1.2 1.62 94,674
Orchards 79 6.8 0.1 1.1 0.2 2.34 44,688
Mixed 47 18.6 2.4 4.9 8.1 1.59 35,884
Cattle 234 16.4 4.2 3.7 15.7 1.65 32,732
Pigs 125 17.9 0.6 5.5 35.5 1.73 50,034
Economic size (standard output in EUR thousand)
4-25 ha 326 14.7 2.3 2.8 7.1 1.75 27,266
25-100 ha 208 45.6 5.6 15.4 30.2 2.11 124,427
>100 ha 47 143.4 6.8 74.7 115.3 4.58 445,602
Sample 581‡ 20.5 2.7 5.6 11.7 1.69 46,444
FADN sample 11,114* 19.6* 2.8** 5.6* 11.7** 1.70* 43,539*
‡
The final sample size was 581 farms due to incomplete data on 19 questionnaires
Sources: own data; * FADN 2013; ** own calculation based on FADN database
Results 40
Risk perception
Percentage of farmers
30
between hail and stormy rain may indicate that certain farms
Stormy
Spring
Risk factor
storm
Wind
frosts
rain
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Farmers’ risk perception, risk aversion and strategies to cope with risk
Type of risk
Personal health
the weakest risk factor out of the set. In general, in most of
the cases the perception of specified risk factors does not
depend on farm type. Finance
Risk aversion
Farm
143
Piotr Sulewski and Anna Kłoczko-Gajewska
(portfolio diversification) reduces the impact of fluctuations Crop insurance 6.0 5.9
on different agricultural markets. Any form of integration
increases the bargaining power of farms, allows them to Off-farm job 6.0 5.9
achieve higher margins and increases safety of transactions. Maintaining
6.0 5.9
Maintaining financial reserves can help farmers to survive financial reserves
difficult periods when the economic results are not adequate. Marketing contracts 5.7 6.1
Not taking credit may increase financial security, however it
Planned strategy
may also slow down the farm’s development. Avoiding credit 6.1 5.8
In our study the farmers were given a set of risk manage- Farm production
5.9 5.9
ment statements concerning strategies that are now realised diversification
or could be realised on the farm in the future. The list was Economic activity not
5.9 6.0
related to farming
prepared on the basis of the literature (Bard and Barry, 2000;
Lagerkvist, 2005). Firstly, the farmers were asked to assess Animal insurance 6.3 5.8
(on a 1-5 scale) to what extent the methods of reducing risk Cooperation with
5.7 6.0
were used at the time of the research (Figure 3a). For each products’ receiver
Joining a
category of level of use, the average level of risk aversion 5.6 6.0
producer group
among farmers was calculated for each strategy used (Figure Cooperation
3b). It is clear that higher levels of use of certain strategies 5.8 6.0
with supplier
correlate with higher risk aversion.
0 20 40 60
Secondly, planned strategies were taken into consid-
eration. Owing to the fact that more detailed assessment of Percentage of farmers
the importance of future strategies would be pointless (the Figure 4: Percentages of a sample of Polish farmers with plans
answers were merely declarations and not statements of fact), concerning future risk-coping strategies and average level of risk
the variable was binary (whether the use of certain strategy aversion (self-assessed; 0 = very low, 10 = very high) of (left
column) those planning and (right column) not planning each
35 (a strategy.
Source: own composition
30
Percentage of farmers
6.5 from the fact that Polish farmers are generally unwilling to
cooperate (according to Wołek and Łopaciuk-Gonczarczyk
(2010) only about 30 per cent of Polish farmers are ready to
6.0 cooperate in business activity). Cooperation means for them
additional risk of being cheated or just additional work to
5.5
compromise, which they are not used to doing.
5.0 Discussion
1 2 3 4 5
Importance of the strategy Agriculture is a risky business. Climate change, pro-
gressing liberalisation of international agricultural trade and
Keeping financial reserves Farm production diversification changes in agricultural support schemes increase the prob-
Avoiding credits Keeping reserves of food stuffs lem of risk management. It can even be argued that with time
Avoiding technological novelties Careful planning of expenses general farm management will have to focus mostly on risk
management. The surveyed farmers see drought as the main
Figure 3: (a) Importance of risk reducing strategies on the farms
source of risk on their farms. Similar observations were made
(1 = very low, 5 = very high); and (b) average level of risk aversion
(self-assessed; 0 = very low, 10 = very high) of a sample of Polish
by climatologists (Górski et al., 2008), who note a growing
farmers. number of unfavourable weather events (including drought)
Source: own composition that affect agriculture. More frequent droughts are thought
144
Farmers’ risk perception, risk aversion and strategies to cope with risk
145
Piotr Sulewski and Anna Kłoczko-Gajewska
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