A number of economic indicators in both the real a financial sector show improvement

towards the end of the year, however a number of groups consider this indicators prone to
reversing because the handling of the covid 19 pandemic has not shown significant results. In
the real sectors the domestic manufacturing industry in november 2020 started to grow again
IHS market released the purchasing managers index for PMI for indonesian manufacturing of
50.6 and increased from the position in october 2020 of 47.8 this was triggered by an increase
in manufacturing production towards dn of the year a reading about 50 indicates
manufacturing is on an expansion path conversely if the pmi number is below 50 then there is
a contraction the upstream activity is in line with increase demand for goods in the
downstream sector this reflected in the consumer price index realesed by the central status 6
agency which continued the inflation trend of 0,28 % in November 2020, from all sources for
idx channel

Indonesia’s manufacturing sector is starting to experience improvement but is it a positive

signal to the national economy recovery and it’s only indonesia that has recorded
improvement in terms of BMI.

PMI data for several asians countries

in the first graphic this is the PMI manufacturer asia 2020, Taiwan 56.9, India 56.3, China
54.9, South Korea 52.9, Indonesia 50.6, in Thailand 50.4. Of the main drivers of the asean or
asian economy that has improvement in China or east China whereas the of November 2020
China’s export and manufacturing performance is increasingly showing a positive rate the
national bureau of statistic of China reported that manufacturing index was at an expasionary
52.1. In November, stranghthening from october this achievement also shows the industry’s
fastest acceleration since September 2017 and of course an improvement in China is expected
to diliver positive effects for the other contries including Indonesia which also showed
expansionary level of PMI index in November. So how is the journey of the Indoensia’s PMI
index throughout 2020

Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI 2020

This is Indoneisa’s PMI from January to November, in November the PMI index of
Indonesia is on level on the level of 50.6, the PMI highest level recorded in Februari, the PMI
level was on the level of 50.9 and the lowest was recorded in April in the level 27.5. and with
this position the median of Indonesia’s manufacturing index became 49.2 or the strongest
achivement since the third quarter of 2019 this was triggered by an increase in factory
production towards the end of the year. The upstream activity is in line with the increasing
demand for goods in th downstream which is reflected in November inflation of 0.28
meanwhile the Indoensian chamber of commerce or caden considers that the positive
performance ofthe PMI is likey to be difficult to maintain until the end of 2020.

Moreover the goverment has decided to reduce the allowence for joint leave at the end of the
year, so that consumption is not expected to increase significantly in Desember and viewers
regarding positive achievement of manufacturing index how was indonesia’s manufacturing
utilization so far
Indoenesia’s Manufacturing Sector Utilization (September 2020)

Textile industry the utilization of the industry as much as 50, and after thet we have basic
chemical 40-60, glass 57 to 50 of 7.5 food and baverage and electronics the utilization level
pretty much the same 60-70% . cement and then rubber plastic and ceramics 60, and the other
data you can see through.

Meanwhile the ministry of industry noted that in the period of April to October 2020 the
average total utilization was 56.5% and increase from april to september 2020 period.

In addition the ministry said that the improvement in the number of economics indicators has
raised goverment optimism fot the national economic recovery where the momentum for the
recovery and domestics manufacturing performence is on right track the minister also ensured
to maintain manufacturing PMI in the expension zone by continuing to run the import
subsitution program next year and as manufacturing indicators signaled positive movement
how was Indonesia’s manufacturing industrial growth

Indonesia’s Manufacturing Industry Growth (%)

In 2020 so far it’s 0.7%, 2019 3.8%

Kesimpulan

That the positive ahievment of PMI in November was not directly propotional to the
substainability of the domestic industries performance recovery where the recovery in
manufacturing is expected to occur at least in 2021 provided that the handling of the covid 19
runs more optimally and as some economics indicators showed positive results

Video 2

think of economic indicators is pieces of a puzzle they tell you something specific and
together help you create an accurate picture of reality there are three broad types of indicators
one leading indicators which tend to change before the economy as a whole changes building
permits are a good example because if you notice that people and companies have less and
less of an appetite for building it's a warning sign that economic activity is slowing down
other examples include share prices net business formations and the money supply to lagging
indicators which tend to change after the economy changes the unemployment rate is a decent
example because when jobs are scarce it's clear that's happening because the economy was
already going through a rough patch other examples include the Consumer Price Index
default rates and interest rates three coincident indicators which change it pretty much the
same time as the economy the GDP is a good example if you want to snapshot of the
economy whereas other examples include non-farm payrolls and personal income an
individual indicator usually doesn't tell you enough on its own and as such conclusion should
be drawn after analyzing multiple indicators for example if this year's GDP is higher than last
year's but building permits are on a downward slope you might have valid reasons to worry
that economic growth will slow down or if the unemployment rate is currently high
something like growing net business formation numbers can give you hope and so on

Jawaban

1.

There are three broad types of indicators

leading indicators that tend to change before the economy as a whole changes

example:

1. building permits because if you notice that people and companies are less and less
interested in building it is a warning sign that economic activity is slowing down

2. stock prices, net business formation, and money supply are lagging indicators that tend to
change after economic changes

3. The unemployment rate is a worthy example because when jobs are scarce it's clear it's
because the economy has gone through a rough patch

4.Other examples include Consumer Price Index default rates and interest rates

three coincident indicators that change it almost simultaneously with the economy's GDP is
a good example if you want to analyze economic conditions