IE5004, Homework 4

Solution to 4.21.
(a) For a randomly selected student, the probabilities that this student is in the four buses are
40/148, 33/148, 25/148, and 50/148, respectively. The student is more likely in a bus that has
more students. One can see that the probability that X takes a certain value is proportional
to this value. The probability that Y takes any of these values is 1/4. Hence, the expected
value of X should be larger than that of Y .
(b)
40 33 25 50
E[X] = 40 × + 33 × + 25 × + 50 × = 39.28,
148 148 148 148
1 1 1 1
E[Y ] = 40 × + 33 × + 25 × + 50 × = 37.
4 4 4 4

Solution to 4.35.
The probability that the two marbles have the same color is given by
5 4 5 4 4
p= × + × = .
10 9 10 9 9
Let X be the amount you win. Then, P[X = 1.1] = 4/9 and P[X = −1.0] = 5/9.
(a)
4 5 1
E[X] = 1.1 × + (−1.0) × = − .
9 9 15
(b)
2
1 2 5
  
1 4 49
V (X) = 1.1 + × + −1.0 + × = .
15 9 15 9 45

Solution to 4.38.
(a) Because E[X 2 ] = V (X) + (E[X])2 = 6,
E[(2 + X)2 ] = E[4 + 4X + X 2 ] = 4 + 4 × E[X] + E[X 2 ] = 14.

(b)
V (4 + 3X) = V (3X) = 9 × V (X) = 45.

Solution to 4.40.
The probability for guessing one answer correctly is 1/3. The number of correct answers follow
a binomial distribution with n = 5 and p = 1/3. So the probability that a student will get four or
more correct answers is
   4  1    5  0
5 1 2 5 1 2 11
× × + × × = .
4 3 3 5 3 3 243

Solution to 4.49.
Let C1 = {coin 1 is chosen} and C2 = {coin 2 is chosen} with P[C1 ] = P[C2 ] = 0.5. Let
E = {the chosen coin lands heads on 7 of 10 flips}.

1
(a) By the probability mass function of binomial distributions,
 
10
P[E|C1 ] = × 0.47 × 0.63 = 0.0425,
7
 
10
P[E|C1 ] = × 0.77 × 0.33 = 0.2668.
7

By the law of total probability,

P[E] = P[E|C1 ]P[C1 ] + P[E|C2 ]P[C2 ] = 0.0425 × 0.5 + 0.2668 × 0.5 = 0.1547.

(b) Let F = {the first flip lands heads}. Then,

P[F ] = P[F |C1 ]P[C1 ] + P[F |C2 ]P[C2 ] = 0.4 × 0.5 + 0.7 × 0.5 = 0.55.

Note that
 
9
P[E ∩ F |C1 ] = 0.4 × × 0.46 × 0.63 = 0.0297,
6
 
9
P[E ∩ F |C2 ] = 0.7 × × 0.76 × 0.33 = 0.1868.
6

By the law of total probability,

P[E ∩ F ] = P[E ∩ F |C1 ]P[C1 ] + P[E ∩ F |C2 ]P[C2 ] = 0.0297 × 0.5 + 0.1868 × 0.5 = 0.1083.

Hence,
P[E ∩ F ]
P[E|F ] = = 0.1968.
P[F ]