PERT

CPM & PERT Comparison

Statistical aspects - Calculation

Three Time Estimate in PERT

Variance & Standard Deviation
Calculation of Probability
Examples and Case Study
 CPM - PERT Comparison

CPM PERT
Deterministic Probabilistic
No statistics applicable Statistics Applicable
Activity Oriented Event Oriented
Single time (tij) Three time Estimate
(to , tm , tp)
Known Project New Project
Accuracy - 100 % Accuracy - Probability
 PERT Activity :

i j
to - tm - tp

to = a = Optimistic time

tm = m = Most likely time

tp = b = Pessimistic time
 B distribution

to tm tp
to = a = Optimistic time of activity

tm = m = Most likely time of activity

tp = b = Pessimistic time of activity

 to te tm tp

te = Expected time of completion of activity

= (to + 4 tm + tp)/6
weightage given to :
to & tp = 1/6 and
tm = 4/6 = 2/3
 i j
to - tm - tp

 ij = Standard deviation variation of

activity duration
=(tp-to) /6

Vij = Variance
=   ij
2
 project = Standard deviation of project
completion duration

V project = V ( i  j ) critical on C . P.

 project =
 2
( i  j ) critical on C . P.
TE = Expected completion duration of
project based on teij

TS = Scheduled completion duration of

project

Z = (TS - TE) / project

Example