Geophys. J. Int.

(2001) 144, 555±567

Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt

A. El-Sayed,1,2,4 F. Vaccari1,3 and G. F. Panza1,3,4

1
Department of Earth Sciences, Trieste University, Trieste, Italy
2
Geological Department, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt. E-mail: elsayedat@mum.mans.eun.eg
3
INGV-Istituto Nazionale di Geo®sica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
4
The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, SAND group, Trieste, Italy

Accepted 2000 September 19. Received 2000 June 23; in original form 1999 July 14

SUMMARY
The regional seismic hazard in Egypt is assessed using a deterministic approach based on
the computation of synthetic seismograms at a set of gridpoints located at distances of
0.2u from each other. The main input for this computation are earthquake sources and
structural models. The earthquake sources are parametrized using focal mechanisms,
seismogenic areas and regional seismicity. A number of deep seismic pro®les have been
used to de®ne the crustal structures. Similar sets of gravity pro®les have been used to
de®ne the density of the layers. The peak displacement (DMAX), peak velocity (VMAX)
and design ground acceleration (DGA) are chosen and plotted to construct the seismic
hazard maps. There are similarities between computed and observed amplitudes of
ground motion in terms of their values and spatial distributions. The results obtained
from the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are comparable. The areas of high
seismic hazard level are of great socio-economic importance.
Key words: deterministic seismic hazard, Egypt, synthetic seismogram.

the ground motion in Egypt using a dense network, we can map

1 INTRODUCTION
In Egypt, the population, archaeological sites and sensitive
structures are concentrated within a narrow zone around the
Nile valley that occupies only 1 per cent of the total area of
the country. Nevertheless, both the population and the newly
developed areas in this zone are still growing rapidly.
In general, buildings in Egypt are not designed to resist earth-
quakes, therefore relatively small events can be the source of
huge socio-economic disasters. The event of 1992 October 12 is
an example of a small but damaging earthquake in Egypt. This
event, of magnitude mb=5.4, resulted in 554 people being killed,
about 20 000 people being injured and over one billion US$
reported as property losses. This was not the only destructive
earthquake in Egypt: similar events occurred in 778, 1303 and
1847. These earthquakes destroyed parts of big cities such as
Cairo and Alexandria (Ambraseys et al. 1994; El-Sayed 1996).
The economic and social effects of earthquake disasters can
be reduced through a comprehensive assessment of seismic
hazard and risk for areas such as Egypt. Such a study leads to
an increased public awareness, with a consequent upgrading of
the existing buildings and engineering works as well as reliable
earthquake-resistant designs for new structures. Loss of life
and property damage can be substantially reduced by highly
detailed, speci®c predictions of seismic ground motion and
related damage scenarios. With the knowledge of the geological
structure and probable earthquake source mechanisms, realistic
ground motions at all sites of interest can be determined.
Instead of waiting for the earthquakes to occur and recording
the ground motion by computing complete synthetic strong-
motion records and testing their reliability against the available
information (e.g. Panza et al. 1999a,b).
An attempt to estimate seismic hazard in Egypt using
Poisson probabilistic seismicity model was made by El-Sayed
(1996) after the destructive earthquake of 1992 October 12. The
results obtained indicated that the level of seismic hazard is
relatively high in densely populated areas, which can affect the
socio-economic development of the country.
The main aims of the present study are (1) to map the
possible seismic ground motion using a deterministic approach,
(2) to create a synthetic seismogram database for the studied
area for further investigation, and (3) to compare the results
obtained with the deterministic and probabilistic approaches.
2 METHOD
A deterministic approach to estimate the seismic hazard was
developed by Costa et al. (1992, 1993) and subsequently applied
to several regions of the world (e.g. Orozova-Stanishkova et al.
1996; Alvarez et al. 1999; Panza et al. 1999a; Aoudia et al. 2000;
AA.VV 2000). The procedure uses the available information
on the Earth structure parameters, the seismic sources and the
level of seismicity of the area to compute synthetic seismo-
grams. Once calibrated against the available information, the
synthetic seismograms allow us to estimate in a rather realistic
way the engineering parameters needed to assess the seismic
hazard, even in those areas where scarce (or no) historical or

# 2001 RAS 555

556 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza
Table 1. Catalogues used as sources in this study.
Source Catalogue
Ambraseys et al. (1994)
Poirier & Taher (1980)
European±Mediterranean Seismological Centre
Gutenberg and Richter (Seismicity of the Earth)
International Seismological Bulletin database
The Seismological Bulletin of Israel
Preliminary Determination of Epicentres
International Seismological Summaries
Seismicity of Egypt (Maamoun et al. 1984)
Earthquake data ®le of the Mediterranean and surrounding area
instrumental information is available. Moreover, the method
allows us to evaluate the in¯uence of different input parameters
on the ®nal result. The immediate outcome of the procedure
is maps showing the distributions of the peak displacement
(DMAX), peak velocity (AMAX) and design ground acceleration
(DGA) over the investigated territory. Details of the technique
are given by Costa et al. (1993) and Panza et al. (1999a).
As shown by Aoudia et al. (2000), the method can directly
include information on maximum possible magnitude based on
geological studies.
The deterministic approach followed in the present paper
is completely different and complementary to the probabilistic
one generally proposed. It highlights some issues largely over-
looked in the probabilistic approach: (1) the effects of crustal
properties on attenuation are not neglected; (2) the ground
motion parameters are derived from synthetic time histories
and not from oversimpli®ed attenuation `functions'; (c) the
resulting maps are given directly in terms of design para-
meters and do not require the adoption of probabilistic maps to
design ground motion; (d) such maps address the issue of the
deterministic de®nition of ground motion in a way that permits
generalization to locations where there is little seismic history.
3 INPUT
The input data needed to compute synthetic seismograms
consist of four main parts: earthquake catalogues, seismogenic
zones, focal mechanisms and structural models.
The primary features of active plate tectonics in the vicinity
of Egypt have been discussed in detail by many authors
(McKenzie 1970; McKenzie et al. 1970; Neev 1975; Ben-
Menahem et al. 1976; Garfunkel & Bartov 1977; Riad 1977;
Ben-Avraham 1978; Sestini 1984; Mesherf 1990). There are
three major plate boundaries located near Egypt: the African±
Eurasian plate margin, the Levant transform fault and the
Red Sea plate margin. They separate the African, Eurasian and
Arabian plates. A piece of the African plate, called the Sinai
block or subplate, is partially separated from the African plate
by spread-apart or rifting along the Gulf of Suez (Woodward-
Clyde Consultants 1985). In addition to these plate boundaries,
there is a megashear zone running from southern Turkey to
Egypt (Neev 1975; Kebeasy 1990) marked by relatively moderate
and scattered seismicity (Fig. 2). The interaction between the
plate boundaries has created active areas in and around Egypt.
Earthquakes reported within this active area, between latitude
20u and 35uN and longitude 22u and 38uE, have been assembled
for the time period 184 BCx1998. The temporal distribution
Period covered Number of events
742±1981 250
528±1160 21
1902±1985 228
1904±1952 24
1964±1996 9893
1907±1993 4031
1869±1995 1611
1913±1963 110
1900±1984 216
1901±1975 236
of the collected data shows that our catalogue contains three
periods of observations, that is, historical (184 BCx1899), early
instrumental (1900±1960) and recent instrumental (1961±1998).
Ambraseys et al. (1994) revised the existing historical
catalogues for Egypt and produced a catalogue of historical
earthquakes with location and Mf magnitude (equivalent
to MS) given for most of the events. We use this catalogue
for the period 184 BCx1899. For both the early and the recent
instrumental periods, the information has been assembled from
computer ®les stored at the World Data Center A, published
catalogues and CD products of the ISC and NEIC (Table 1).
The duplicate events were removed after reviewing the various
sources, giving preference to the sources that included more
complete and recent information.
Different agencies report different magnitudesÐsome agencies
report ML, others MS, mb, Mw or MD (see Table 2). The
differences between these values can be as large as one magni-
tude unit. Moreover, the same kind of magnitude reported
by different agencies for the same event may differ by 0.5.
Consequently, a critical compilation of data from different
catalogues could be a source of large errors. To minimize these
errors, all the compiled data should be homogenized to the
same magnitude. In our case, we have used the duplicates, that
is, the magnitudes reported for the same event by different
agencies, to construct linear relations between the different
magnitudes (Table 2). In our compilation, for each earthquake
we give three magnitudes (mb, MS and ML), either reported
or obtained from other magnitudes. The largest of these is
Table 2. Relationships between magnitude determined by different
agencies. IPRG=Seismological Bulletin of Israel; ISC=International
Seismological Center; PDE=Preliminary Determination Epicentres;
ATH=Athens; HLW=Helwan; EMSC=European Mediterranean
Seismological Centre; MED=Mediterranean; mb=body wave magnitude;
ML=local magnitude; MD=duration magnitude; MS=surface wave
magnitude.
Equation Number of events used
ML(IPRG)=(1.02 0.29)+(0.74 0.07) mb(ISC) 127
mb(PDE)=(0.43 0.08)+(0.91 0.02) mb(ISC) 460
ML(ATH)=(1.12 0.35)+(0.72 0.08) mb(ISC) 34
MD(HLW)=(1.97 0.27)+(0.55 0.07) mb(ISC) 23
mb(EMSC)=(0.73 0.20)+(0.73 0.05) mb(ISC) 125
Ms(EMSC)=(1.83 0.28)+(0.60 0.06) mb(ISC) 51
ML(EMSC)=(0.96 0.20)+(0.98 0.04) mb(ISC) 29
Ms(MED)=(0.89 0.20)+(0.79 0.04) mb(ISC) 139
ML(HLW)=(0.08 0.10)+(1.01 0.02) mb(ISC) Maamoun et al. 1984
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567

considered in the calculation of the synthetic seismograms. The
distribution of the collected earthquake epicentres is shown in
Fig. 1.
Tectonic evidence suggests that the earthquakes in the area
are concentrated in the crust, and there is nothing in the macro-
seismic data to indicate that this is not the case (Ambraseys
et al. 1994). The instrumental observations support the tectonic
evidence, and only in areas close to Crete and Cyprus are a few
earthquakes at intermediate depths recorded.
The completeness of the catalogue for the two periods of
instrumental observation has been analysed. The early part of
the catalogue is complete up to the events of magnitude (mb)
5.0 and greater, while after the 1960s it seems to be complete
for events of magnitude (mb) 3.5 and greater. However, this
difference in completeness does not affect our calculations since
in the deterministic procedure we use events of magnitude (mb)
5.0 and greater.
The spatial distribution of the collected earthquakes identi®es
four major seismogenic zones in Egypt: (1) the Gulf of Aqaba±
Levant zone, (2) the northern Red Sea±Gulf of Suez zone,
(3) the Suez±Cairo±Alexandria fault zone and (4) the Eastern
Mediterranean±Cairo±Fayoum zone (Kebeasy 1990; Maamoun
& Ibrahim 1978; Reborto et al. 1992; Mohammed 1993; El-Sayed
Figure 1. Distribution of earthquake epicentres in the studied area for the time period 1900±1998. Lines denote the major tectonic elements that are
reported in the studied area (modi®ed from Sestini 1984, Kebeasy 1990 and Mesherf 1990).
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567
Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt 557
& WahlstroÈm 1996). In addition to these zones, Kebeasy (1990)
de®ned other local seismic zones, for example, the Gilf El-Keber,
Aswan and Qena local source zones (8, 9 and 10 in Fig. 2).
Since distant earthquakes have caused considerable damage in
Egypt, three remote seismogenic zones, i.e. Egypt±Mediterranean
coast, Cyprus and Crete (5, 6 and 7 in Fig. 2), have been
included in this study. Fig. 2 shows the major seismogenic
zones used in the present study.
The focal mechanisms database that contributes to the
description of the geodynamic characteristics of the seismo-
genic zones in Egypt is based on the centroid moment tensor
(CMT) catalogue. In total, there are 41 CMT focal mechanism
solutions available for the studied area. CMT solutions are
reported only for events with magnitude (mb)>5.0. The distri-
bution of the earthquake epicentres shows that in some active
areas the energy is released through small earthquakes, i.e.
MSj5.0; consequently, such areas do not have any focal
mechanism solutions in the CMT database. There is a relatively
large number of focal mechanism solutions available for
earthquakes with magnitude (mb) 4.0±5.0 (Abo-Elenean 1993),
from which only the events that have a well-constrained focal
mechanism were selected. The focal mechanism database that
we have assembled contains 57 events (Fig. 3 and Table 3).
558 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza
Figure 2. Distribution of earthquakes and seismogenic zones in Egypt and its vicinity (modi®ed from Kebeasy 1990). Numbers identify seismogenic
zones mentioned in the text.
Egypt is characterized by complicated tectonics. Hence, focal
mechanism solutions of events that occur within the same
seismogenic zone are different (Fig. 3). With our approach, it is
preferable to choose one representative focal mechanism for
each seismogenic zone (Fig. 3 and Table 3). The selection of
the representative events is based on the known tectonics of the
area as well as on the size of the earthquake. For example, there
are 10 focal mechanisms available for the Gulf of Aqaba±
Levant seismogenic zone, and the focal mechanisms of these
events are very different; based on the known tectonics (see e.g.
Kebeasy 1990; Mesherf 1990) the mechanism of the largest event,
that of 1995 November 22 (MS=7.3), is chosen as representative
of the whole zone.
The structural models of the media beneath the site of
interest are represented by a number of ¯at layers with different
thicknesses, densities, P- and S-wave phase velocities and quality
factors.
In the present study, the Egyptian territory is subdivided
into ®ve regional polygons (Fig. 4) that take into account the
available tectonic, geological and geophysical characteristics
described by Mesherf (1990) and Said (1990). The thickness of
the Earth's crust, the density and the P- and S-wave velocity
models are taken from deep seismic sounding and Bouguer
anomaly pro®les published by the Egyptian General Petroleum
Company (GPC). These data are stored in the Atlas of Geology
at Cornell University, USA (Barazangi et al. 1996). The S-wave
velocity is taken as VP /1.73. The quality factors are taken from
Xie & Mitchell (1990). For the uppermost part of the crust
there are a large number of geological wells that are drilled as
deep as 3.5 km (Said 1981), as well as shallow seismic pro®les
(El-Gamili 1982; Marzouk 1995; Mohammed 1995) that give
the details of the upper 300 m. These detailed pro®les are con-
centrated in the Nile Delta and Nile Valley areas. Due to a lack
of speci®c models, for the upper mantle we have considered a
standard continental model (Harkrider 1970; Du et al. 1998).
4 CALCULATIONS
Starting from the seismicity and structural models, the synthetic
seismograms are computed as follows.
4.1 De®nition of seismic sources and observation points
The seismic sources used in the computation of the synthetic
seismograms are de®ned in two steps: (1) discretization of
the observed seismicity, and (2) smoothing of the discretized
seismicity within the seismogenic zones.
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567
 Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt 559

Table 3. Events shown in Fig. 3 and their focal mechanism parameters. (1) Event number; (2) date; (3) origin time; (4) latitude (uN); (5) longitude (uE);
(6) depth (km); (7) body wave magnitude; (8) strike; (9) dip; (10) slip in degrees; (11) bibliographical source of the solution: CMT, ABU and HU
denote the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue, Abo-Elenean (1993) and Huang & Solomon (1987), respectively.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

1 1955 09 12 06 09 24 32.20 29.60 33.0 6.1 34 36 10 ABU

2 1969 03 31 07 15 54 27.61 33.91 6.0 6.1 294 37 x18 HU
3 1972 06 28 09 49 35 27.70 33.80 6.0 5.9 288 40 x103 HU
4 1974 04 29 20 04 39 30.52 31.72 33.0 4.8 78 85 x176 ABU
5 1977 09 11 23 19 27 34.51 22.99 36.8 5.8 74 28 100 CMT
6 1978 03 07 22 33 49 34.19 25.45 42.0 5.4 225 14 40 CMT
7 1978 12 09 07 12 56 24.00 26.40 6.5 5.3 241 58 150 ABU
8 1979 04 23 13 01 55 0.54 35.59 15.0 5.1 197 40 x4 CMT
9 1979 05 15 06 59 22 34.38 24.80 15.0 5.6 172 4 x20 CMT
10 1979 06 15 11 34 14 34.82 24.42 33.0 5.6 216 11 10 CMT
11 1981 09 13 23 25 25 34.56 25.13 15.0 4.8 256 65 x11 CMT
12 1981 11 14 09 05 34 23.88 32.38 15.0 5.1 146 72 x15 CMT
13 1982 09 17 22 22 29 33.70 22.90 23.4 6.0 219 34 93 CMT
14 1983 01 03 00 12 24 33.97 23.89 102.0 5.4 30 36 70 CMT
15 1983 03 19 21 41 49 34.75 24.89 65.0 5.6 358 39 131 CMT
16 1984 03 20 21 36 06 30.18 32.10 10.0 4.7 27 75 154 ABU
17 1984 07 02 01 47 09 25.86 33.85 10.0 5.1 281 45 x110 CMT
18 1984 08 24 06 02 25 32.88 34.91 39.0 5.1 54 51 151 ABU
19 1984 08 24 06 29 04 32.38 34.81 28.0 5.0 134 56 0 CMT
20 1985 07 22 21 32 35 34.16 28.40 15.0 5.4 67 48 x34 CMT
21 1985 09 27 16 39 48 34.05 26.94 43.8 5.5 135 76 13 CMT
22 1986 05 22 19 52 21 34.12 26.72 33.2 5.1 227 37 24 CMT
23 1986 10 02 10 12 46 34.65 29.16 15.0 5.3 99 37 x53 CMT
24 1987 01 02 10 14 46 30.46 32.22 20.0 5.0 136 80 x13 ABU
25 1987 04 09 03 00 04 32.39 28.97 10.0 4.6 186 36 x30 ABU
26 1987 06 28 00 50 20 32.55 24.49 15.0 5.2 326 40 x7 CMT
27 1988 06 05 18 26 58 27.98 33.73 17.0 4.5 256 49 x80 ABU
28 1988 09 05 20 03 36 34.51 26.65 15.0 4.9 15 55 x11 CMT
29 1989 03 17 05 42 53 34.51 25.53 17.0 4.8 77 10 x118 CMT
30 1989 03 28 13 29 14 34.06 24.68 55.9 5.4 67 53 29 CMT
31 1989 06 14 18 06 40 34.30 26.10 15.0 5.1 102 8 x68 CMT
32 1989 08 27 01 21 17 34.25 26.28 15.0 5.0 223 19 33 CMT
33 1990 07 09 11 22 14 34.45 26.24 33.0 5.1 129 27 x106 CMT
34 1991 03 19 12 09 27 34.60 26.13 15.0 5.4 245 36 x33 CMT
35 1991 10 05 18 48 26 29.52 32.58 31.0 4.3 283 50 x132 ABU
36 1992 10 12 13 09 59 29.74 30.63 22.0 5.9 136 42 x75 CMT
37 1992 10 20 01 57 58 28.51 33.16 10.0 3.8 275 63 122 ABU
38 1992 10 27 09 44 46 28.84 33.11 10.0 3.4 261 48 x170 ABU
39 1992 10 27 11 02 44 28.85 33.12 19.0 3.9 312 46 x117 ABU
40 1993 03 22 11 03 50 34.74 34.41 15.0 5.3 343 27 133 CMT
41 1993 08 03 12 43 14 28.62 34.40 15.0 6.0 139 36 x122 CMT
42 1993 08 03 16 33 23 28.36 34.08 15.0 5.7 142 13 x123 CMT
43 1994 09 28 09 38 37 30.65 32.80 23.0 3.8 270 49 x140 ABU
44 1995 05 29 04 58 37 34.89 32.63 15.0 5.3 224 20 132 CMT
45 1995 09 08 12 13 22 29.49 32.26 13.0 4.2 117 85 x6 ABU
46 1995 11 22 04 15 26 29.07 34.73 18.4 6.2 196 59 x15 CMT
47 1995 11 22 22 16 57 28.32 34.21 15.0 5.0 202 67 x3 CMT
48 1995 11 23 18 07 26 29.31 34.48 15.0 5.3 199 77 7 CMT
49 1995 12 07 18 01 01 34.79 24.15 15.0 5.2 319 6 123 CMT
50 1995 12 10 03 27 52 34.37 23.37 21.0 5.0 289 22 75 CMT
51 1996 02 21 04 59 56 29.03 34.37 15.0 5.1 132 30 x104 CMT
52 1996 10 09 13 10 59 34.50 32.09 23.0 6.4 48 77 170 CMT
53 1996 10 10 01 10 24 34.58 31.34 19.0 5.4 139 53 12 CMT
54 1996 10 10 04 54 51 34.75 32.03 33.0 4.9 147 62 4 CMT
55 1996 11 27 00 44 25 34.47 32.03 32.6 5.0 62 48 x168 CMT
56 1996 12 20 07 21 20 27.75 33.04 24.0 4.4 123 65 x63 ABU
57 1997 01 13 10 19 28 34.09 31.74 33.0 5.3 97 76 11 CMT

# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567

560 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza

(a)

(b)

Figure 3. (a) Focal mechanism solutions available for the studied area. The numbers in the ®gure are the same as in Table 3. The size of each
beachball is proportional to the size of the earthquake. (b) Representative focal mechanism for each seismic zone.

# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567


Figure 4. (a) Regional polygons used in this study. (b) Crustal models considered for each polygon.
For the discretization of the seismicity the studied area
is subdivided into cells (0.2ur0.2u). The magnitude of the
strongest earthquake that occurred within a cell is assigned to
that cell. The smoothing procedure is applied to accountÐin a
rough wayÐfor the source dimension of the largest earth-
quakes and for the location errors, which may be particularly
severe for historical events (Costa et al. 1993; Panza et al.
1999a). The seismogenic zones are introduced into the pro-
cedure as natural boundaries in the smoothing process. After
the smoothing of seismicity, only the sources falling within the
seismogenic zones are taken into account for the computations
of synthetic seismograms.
Each seismic source is represented by one double-couple
located in the centre of each cell. This source replaces all the
events falling within the cell and its strength is determined
according to the maximum magnitude in the cell after smooth-
ing. The orientation of the double-couple source is determined
on the basis of the available fault plane solutions.
The observation points are placed in a grid with dimensions
of 0.2ur0.2u over the whole studied area. They do not overlap
the sources because the sources are placed in the centre of each
cell falling within the seismogenic zones, whereas the observation
points are placed at the corners of the grid.
4.2 Ground motion parameters
When the seismicity, the source mechanisms, the structural
models and the observation points are de®ned, synthetic signals
are computed using the modal summation technique (Panza
1985; Panza & Suhadolc 1987; Florsch et al. 1991).
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567
Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt 561
To study the ground motion in Egypt, around 2500
seismic sources are used. The horizontal P±SV (radial) and SH
(transverse) components of motion are computed and rotated
to the common reference system (N±S and E±W directions)
and then their vector sum is calculated. The total number of
seismograms expected for the above con®guration would exceed
32 million. To reduce the computations, the source±receiver
distance is kept below an upper threshold (90 km at most) that
depends on magnitude (Costa et al. 1992, 1993; Panza et al.
1999a). At each observation point all seismograms generated
by different sources are examined and the largest component of
ground motion is selected for further analysis.
The synthetic signals are computed to obtain the peak ground
displacement (DMAX), velocity (VMAX) and acceleration
(AMAX) up to a maximum frequency of 1 Hz. The design
ground acceleration (DGA) is obtained through extrapolation
using standard code response spectra following the procedure
described by Panza et al. (1996). Since there is no building code
available for Egypt, EC8 for soil A (European code) is used in
this study. The choice of soil A is justi®ed by the fact that in all
structural models the S-wave velocity of the topmost layer is
greater than 0.8 km sx1.
Since we compute complete time-series, it is possible to
consider other parameters such as Arias (1970) intensity or
other integral quantities (e.g. Uang & Bertero 1990; Decanini &
Mollaioli 1998) that are of great interest in seismic engineering.
To estimate the effects of distant earthquakes in Egypt, calcu-
lations have been carried out taking into account only the large
events reported in the Gulf of Aqaba, Cyprus and Crete, and
allowing source±receiver distances in the range 100±1000 km
(see e.g. Fig. 6).
562 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza
Figure 4. (Continued.)
5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
5.1 Effect of local earthquakes
The spatial distribution of DMAX, VMAX and DGA (Fig. 5)
due to sources located at an epicentral distance of 90 km at
most shows that the highest accelerations are concentrated in
the Nile Delta, the northern Red Sea and its two extensions
(Gulf of Suez±Gulf of Aqaba) and Aswan. For these areas the
peak ground acceleration varies from 0.005 to 0.34 g. The
results obtained from the probabilistic approach (El-Sayed 1996),
varying from 0.005 to 0.4 g, are in agreement with the results
of the deterministic approach. Based on the conversion table
given by Panza et al. (1999a), these values correspond to
intensities in the range V±XI.
In the Nile Delta, DGA can be as high as 0.15 g, corres-
ponding to intensity in the range VIII±IX (Panza et al. 1999a),
agreeing with the value of 0.2 g obtained by El-Sayed (1996)
using the probabilistic approach. Intensity IX (MSK) was
reported for the area in 1847 (Sieberg 1932; Maamoun et al.
1984; Ambraseys et al. 1994). In 1992 an earthquake occurred
to the south of the Nile Delta, with epicentre and magnitude
(Table 2) similar to those assigned to the 1847 event (Sieberg
1932; Maamoun et al. 1984); nevertheless, the observed intensities
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567

Figure 5. Distribution of (a) the computed ground displacement, DMAX, (b) the computed ground velocity, VMAX, and (c) the computed design
ground acceleration, DGA. Both DMAX and VMAX are calculated for frequencies up to 1 Hz.
for the two events are IX (1847) and VI (1992) (Sieberg 1932;
Maamoun et al. 1984; Helwan Institute of Astronomy and
Geophysics 1993; Ambraseys et al. 1994). The latter observed
intensity value is in very good agreement with the intensity
(VI) calculated using the conversion table given by Panza
et al. (1999a). The large difference between the 1847 and 1992
intensities may be due to (1) the large uncertainties associated
with historical parameters, that is, the event of 1847 may have
had a larger magnitude or may have been located closer to the
Nile Delta, or (2) the focal depths being different. For example,
if we assume that the event of 1847 has a magnitude (MS) of 6.4
(instead of 5.9) and a focal depth of 8 km (instead of 22 km),
the calculated intensity, using the conversion table given by
Panza et al. (1999a), is VIII, a value quite close to the reported
one. In 1992 the event was moderate (mb=5.9) but caused
considerable damage; therefore, larger events in this area could
be the source of a huge social disaster.
In the areas of high economic importance (the largest
Egyptian oil ®elds) of the Gulf of Suez, DGA can be as high
as 0.25 g (intensity around X). The results obtained using the
probabilistic method (El-Sayed 1996) indicate that the maxi-
mum expected intensity and acceleration are X and 0.35 g, in
satisfactory agreement with the results of this study. In 1969, an
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567
Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt 563
earthquake with magnitude (MS) 6.9 occurred in this area,
generating a large quantity of surface lineaments and dis-
locations, implying an MSK intensity of IX±X (Maamoun
et al. 1984). At the time of the earthquake, the area was not
populated and there were only a few oil wells, located far from
the epicentre. At present the area is relatively highly populated
and there are a large number of drilled wells along the Gulf of
Suez. Therefore, such intensity could be a source of major
danger today.
In the region of the Aswan High Dam, DGA can be as
high as 0.14 g (intensity around VIII). This result agrees well
with the value of the probabilistic approach (0.15 g) given by
El-Sayed (1996). For this area the largest reported earthquake
has m<6. The most recent earthquake was that of 1981
November 14 (mb=5.1). This earthquake caused considerable
damage in Aswan, but did not affect the stability of the High
Dam.
5.2 Effect of distant earthquakes
Distant earthquakes of magnitude 7.3 and larger can generate
intensity up to VIII in the northern part of Egypt. Such
564 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza
Figure 5. (Continued.)
intensity is a source of danger for poorly constructed buildings,
which are common in the highly populated area of the Nile
Delta (Fig. 6). This is con®rmed by both recent and historical
observations.
In fact, more than half of the earthquakes that affect the Nile
Valley and the Delta originate from epicentres outside Egypt.
These are generally large-magnitude earthquakes in the Hellenic
arc or in the Dead Sea system. Recent examples are the events
of 1969 March 31 (northern Red Sea), 1995 November 22
(Gulf of Aqaba, MS=7.3) and 1996 October 9 (southern Cyprus,
MS=7.0). These earthquakes were felt throughout the Nile
Valley, with isolated damage at epicentral distances greater than
300 km (Ambraseys et al. 1994; El-Sayed 1996).
This phenomenon is due to the presence of thick uncon-
solidated water-saturated sediments in the Nile graben (El-Sayed
1996) that, in the case of distant earthquakes, may allow the
generation and propagation of local surface waves (Faeh et al.
1994) that will affect mainly the taller buildings. Detailed site
effect studies are needed to quantify ground motion ampli®cation
in the Nile graben. The existing seismic pro®les, geological
wells, gravity and magnetic data as well as the seismograms
that will be recorded with the seismic stations recently installed
by the Helwan Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics will
help to advance this work further.
5.3 Comparison between observed and model data
The event of 1995 November 22, which was located in the Gulf
of Aqaba, can be used to compare the observed and calculated
DGA values. This earthquake (MS=7.3) triggered strong-
motion accelerographs belonging to the Jordanian and Israeli
networks at Aqaba and Eliat cities, respectively. A preliminary
analysis of the strong-motion records indicates that at the port
city of Eliat (a distance of about 90 km from the epicentre), the
peak ground accelerations for the E±W, N±S and vertical
components were 0.09, 0.08 and 0.11 g, respectively. From
the Jordanian network, two recorded values for the horizontal
peak ground acceleration at two stations at epicentral distance
of about 96 km (one on sandy soil, the other on the rocky soil
in Aqaba) were 0.10 and 0.05 g, respectively. There are no
recording stations near to the epicentre. In the city of Nuweiba,
located 40 km north of the epicentre, the surveyed damage
suggests that the horizontal peak ground acceleration was in
the range 0.16±0.25 g and the vertical peak ground acceleration
was in the range 0.16±0.20 g (Osman & Ghobarah 1996). These
observed values are comparable with the values we calculated
for this earthquake (considering distance and azimuth); in
fact, we obtained maximum values of 0.16, 0.07 and 0.06 g at
distances of 43, 93 and 96 km, respectively.
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567

Figure 5. (Continued.)
The earthquakes of 1955 (Alexandria offshore), 1969 (Gulf
of Suez), 1982 (Aswan) and 1992 (Cairo) were associated with
maximum MSK intensities VIII, IX, VII and VI, respectively
(Maamoun et al. 1984). For these events the ground accelerations
calculated and converted into the corresponding intensity
ranges, using the relation given by Panza et al. (1999a), give
VII±VIII, IX±X, V±VI and V±VI, respectively.
In general, the local match between synthetic computations
and the few observations available for the Gulf of Aqaba
earthquake encourages the extension of the reliability of our
calculations to the rest of the area, where no surveys or obser-
vations are available. Recently, a digital seismic network has
been installed in Egypt by the Helwan Institute of Astronomy
and Geophysics; it is presently undergoing testing. As new data
become available, they can easily be incorporated into our
hazard maps.
6 CONCLUSIONS
The results obtained with the probabilistic and deterministic
approaches are in general very similar. The considerable differ-
ences in some areas may be related to the following factors: the
# 2001 RAS, GJI 144, 555±567
Deterministic seismic hazard in Egypt 565
probabilistic methods (1) are very sensitive to the completeness
of the catalogue and (2) use simple attenuation laws that
oversimplify the wave propagation phenomena.
Earthquakes that are located within the Egyptian territory
can generate ground acceleration up to 0.15, 0.25 and 0.35 g
(VIII±IX, IX±X and X±XI, MSK) in the highly populated area
of the Nile Delta, in the Gulf of Suez and in the Gulf of Aqaba,
respectively. These values are extremely high for the existing
built environment and could cause severe damage and huge
socio-economic losses due to the great economic importance of
the areas.
Distant earthquakes, located as far away as the Gulf of
Aqaba, Cyprus and Crete (300±800 km), can generate ground
acceleration up to 0.08 g (VIII) in northern Egypt. The energy
in this case is carried by long-period surface waves that would
be a source of danger mainly for tall buildings, long bridges and
lifelines.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was carried out at the Department of Earth Sciences,
Trieste University (DST-UTS), Italy. Financial support was
provided by ICTP, Italy. The ®rst author is highly indebted
566 A. El-Sayed, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza

Figure 6. Map of design ground acceleration distribution computed for the event of 1996 in the Gulf of Aqaba and examples of the ground motion
traces. Seismograms are computed up to frequencies of 1 Hz. The peak value of ground motion parameters is given above each trace. Az=azimuth in
degrees; d=distance in km.

to Profs G. Furlan, Head of the TRIL program, ICTP,
F. Hussain, Head of OEA, ICTP, and Refat El-Sherif, Head of
the Geology Department, Mansoura University, for providing
an excellent opportunity to visit DST-UTS and to produce
such results for Egypt. Thanks are also due to Drs Marrara,
Costa, Aoudia, Vecchies, Peresan and SaraoÁ and all of the
members of the seismology group of DST-UTS who provided
moral support and rendered their services as and when required.
We also thank Prof. Ota Kulhanek, Uppsala University,
Sweden, for his encouragement to start this work.
Part of this research is a contribution to the IUGS±
UNESCO±IGCP Project 414 `Realistic modelling of seismic
input for megacities and large urban areas', to Contract UVO-
ROSTE 875.669.9 `Seismic safety of urban areas: ground motion
modelling and intermediate-term earthquake prediction' and to
OEA, ICTP Net 40 `Seismic hazard in northern-eastern Africa'.
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