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Simulation

Methodology
Simulation: Transactions of the Society for
Modeling and Simulation International
1–9
Modeling conflict in a social system Ó The Author(s) 2018
DOI: 10.1177/0037549718761573
using diffusion equations journals.sagepub.com/home/sim

Petukhov Alexander Yurevich, Malkhanov Alexey Olegovich,


Sandalov Vladimir Mikhailovich and Petukhov Yuri Vasilievich

Abstract
In this paper the problem of modeling social conflicts of various types with the help of diffusion equations is discussed.
The main approaches to and methods of mathematical modeling in contemporary humanitarian sciences are outlined.
The main concepts of social conflicts, means of their classification and interpretation – including ethnic-social, religious,
and other conflicts – are considered. The notion of a conflict in a social system is defined in terms of mathematical mod-
eling. A model based on the Langevin diffusion equation is introduced. The model is based on the idea that all individuals
in a society interact by means of a communication field. This field is induced by each individual in the society and forms
informational interaction between individuals.
An analytical solution of the system of equations is given in the first approximation for a diverging type of diffusion. It is
shown that even for a simple case of the interaction of two groups of individuals the developed model makes it possible
to discover characteristic laws of a conflict in a social system. It allows determining the effect of social distance in a soci-
ety on the conditions of generation of such processes, with account of external effects or a random factor.
Based on the analysis of the phase portraits for the given system, it has been concluded that there exists a stability
region within which the social system is stable and non-conflicting.

Keywords
Communication field, diffusion equations, Langevin equation, social conflict, society

1. Introduction conflictological knowledge effective;7 Schtompke, who


absolutized the ‘‘western main road’’ of social salvation;
A social conflict can be defined as a peak stage in the and Glazl, who introduced modern mechanisms of solving
development of contradictions in relations between indi- conflicts.7–9
viduals, groups of individuals, or a society as a whole, One of the most successful and consistent approaches to
characterized by the presence of contradicting interests, the modeling of social phenomena with the help of discrete
objectives, and viewpoints of the interacting subjects. equations was carried out by Hayes.10
Conflicts can be latent or explicit, and are caused by a lack The problems of studying, classifying, and—the most
of compromise or sometimes even dialogue between the important—predicting conflicts has always played a sig-
two or more parties involved.1 nificant role in fundamental social science. A lot of works
Works of scientists that became fundamental in analyz-
of leading sociologists and mathematicians have been
ing practical problems of this complex interdisciplinary
devoted to the study of this topic.11–14
science played an important part in the development of
general conflictology at the present stage. These are the
classical works of Coser,2 Darendorf,3 and Habermas,4 and
others, who substantiated a natural and attributive charac- Research Laboratory for Modeling Social and Political Processes,
ter of ethnic-political conflicts and their functions in the Lobachevsky University of Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
life of a society; Boulding,5 Kozer,6 and others, who laid
the groundwork for developing a general theory of con- Corresponding author:
Petukhov Alexander Yurevich, Research Laboratory for Modeling Social
flicts; Burton and his followers, who addressed the issue of and Political Processes at the Lobachevsky University of Nizhny
effective practical technologies of settling and principal Novgorod, pr. Gagarina, 23, Nigni Novgorod, 603950, Russia
resolution of conflicts as the first priority for making Email: Lectorr@yandex.ru
2 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)

Taking into account the important impact of such phe- specific historical event. They are designed for dis-
nomena on a society and all the processes inside it, any covering basic laws characterizing the processes of
ways of predicting and discovering characteristic laws of the type in question. Accordingly, such mathemati-
social conflicts are certainly of paramount importance. cal models are called basic.17
One of the directions in which to search for possible
solutions to this problem is forecasting and describing a In the classical models,18–24 the dynamics of nonlinear
social conflict mathematically—that is, using mathemati- systems are modeled using multidimensional differential
cal modeling.10–15 equations,22,25,26 difference equations,27,28 the mathemati-
cal apparatus of cellular automation,27,29 the mathematical
apparatus of catastrophe theory,30,31 the mathematical
2. Mathematical modeling in social apparatus of the self-organized criticality theory,32,33 sto-
science chastic differential equations of Langevin and Ito-
Stratonovich,27,32 analysis of systems with chaos, and
Significant progress has been made in modeling of social reconstruction of stable states (attractors) along time
and political processes in recent years.16 Sociology utilizes series.10,27,29 Holyst et al. presented an effective model of
such areas of mathematics as statistics, the theory of sto- social opinion, based on representing the interaction
chastic processes, queueing theory, informatics, decision between individuals in the form of Brownian motion.33
theory, game theory, differential equations, mathematical There are also numerous studies in the field of modeling
methods of synergy and chaos theory, graph and network social and political processes using various types of mathe-
theory, theory of categories, systems theory, mathematical matical models.34–40
physics, and others. It is obvious that new methods such as However, mathematical modeling, which is based on
evolutionary modeling (genetic algorithms) and neural nonlinear dynamics, being widely spread in natural
networks can be applied to the study of sociological prob- sciences, is relatively rare in sociological research.
lems as well. The growth of generalization of mathemati-
cal modeling approaches in sociology increases the role of
more transcendental areas of mathematics such as general 3. The main concepts of a social conflict
algebra, topology, and functional analysis.10,16 The contemporary literature on sociology abounds in clas-
The already available models can be tentatively subdi- sifications of types of conflicts according to various
vided into three groups. grounds. Consider some of them from the viewpoint of
defining a social conflict as a mathematical notion in our
1. Models/concepts based on discovering and ana- model.
lyzing general historic laws and representing From the viewpoint of subjects involved in a conflict,
them in the form of cognitive schemes describ- four types of conflicts can be discerned.
ing logical relations between various factors
affecting historical processes (e.g., Goldstein, 1. Intrapersonal conflict (this can appear in the fol-
Wallerstain, Goumilyov, Rozov). Such models lowing forms: a role conflict—it appears when
feature a high degree of generalization, but contradictory requirements are imposed on a per-
are of a purely logical, conceptual—rather than son, regarding what the result of his/her work has
mathematical—nature. to be; intrapersonal—it can result from a mismatch
2. Special mathematical models of the simulation between the working requirements and the individ-
type, designed for describing particular historical ual’s needs and values).
events and phenomena (e.g., Pavlovskiy, Borodkin, 2. Interpersonal conflict (this can manifest in the form
Meadows, Forrester). In such models, the main of a clash of individuals having different charac-
focus is accounting for and describing factors and ters, views, or values, and is the most common
processes affecting the studied phenomena. The conflict).
applicability of such models is, as a rule, limited 3. Conflict between an individual and a group (when
by a fairly short spatial and time interval; they are an individual assumes a position differing from the
‘‘tied up’’ to a particular historical event and can- position of the group).
not be extrapolated onto longer periods of time. 4. Intergroup conflict.
3. Mathematical models, intermediate between the
two above types. These models describe a certain Conflicts can also be classified according to the spheres
class of social processes without giving a detailed of activity, as: political, social-economic, national-ethnic,
description of the features characteristic for each and others.7–8
Petukhov et al. 3

However, it is vital to identify some fundamental para- The dynamic aspect studies interests of the parties as
meter of the social conflict that will be the base of the stimuli for conflict behavior of people. The definition of
developing model. It is obvious that the parameter should conflict dynamics is a set of responses to external stimuli.1
be logically justified within the framework of the modern From the above discussion, the following statements for
concepts of social conflict. There are quite a few concepts our model can be made.
of the theory of social conflict. Some of the best-known
are as follows: 1. A major social conflict, as a rule, is accompanied
by an information and social distance between indi-
Coser’s concepts viduals and groups of individuals. A basis for such
a distance can be ethnic, cultural, confessional, as
 in any society there exists inevitable inequality, per- well as economic differences. The causes of such a
manent psychological discontent of its members, conflict can have various bases: different levels of
interpersonal and intergroup tension (emotional, aggression of social, ethnic groups; contradicting
psychic disorder), leading to social conflict; cultural and economic intentions; and so on. In
 social conflict as incongruity between the reality other words, the social-information distance is not
and ideas of various social groups or individuals the cause of the conflict but in general comes with
about what it should be like; and it.
 social conflict as struggle for values and pretensions 2. This distance increases in the process of conflict,
to a certain status, power, and resources, in which especially in its extremal forms (revolutions, civil
the antagonists aim at neutralizing, damaging, or wars, etc.), bringing the opposing parties to the
eliminating the opponent.2 attitude of irreconcilability. Unfortunately, history
Conflict model of society by Darendorf: knows very few examples of short- and medium-
term positive scenarios for such situations.
 permanent social fluctuations in society, suffering 3. Hence, the point of no return, which is under con-
social conflict; sideration, is somewhere before the initiation of the
 any society is based on making some of its mem- conflict, and this transition of a social system from
bers obey other members, meaning inequality of one state to another is determining.
social positions in the distribution of power; and
 difference in the social position of various social
groups and individuals leading to reciprocal ten- 4. Mathematical model
sions and contradictions resulting in the alteration
of the social structure of the society.3 For mathematical modeling, an important point is that
social and political processes cannot be rigorously
General theory of conflict by Boulding: assigned. They tend to be subjected to minor changes and
fluctuations. As an analogy, a social process is similar to a
 all conflicts have common development patterns; Brownian particle—that is, a particle moving along a
their detailed study and analysis makes it possible fairly definite trajectory which, on closer examination, is
to develop a generalized theory—‘‘the general theory highly winding and broken. These small fluctuations are
of conflict’’—which will allow society to control con- explained by chaotic motion of other molecules. In social
flicts, manage them, and predict their consequences; processes, fluctuations can be assumed as manifestations
 Boulding argues that conflict is an intrinsic part of of free will of its individual participants, as well as other
social life (striving for struggling with the similar is random manifestations of the external medium.41
in human nature); In physics, such processes are generally described using
 a conflict is a situation in which each of the parties the Langevin stochastic diffusion equation, which is also,
tries to adopt an attitude that is incompatible and con- to a certain degree, tested for modeling some social pro-
trary in respect to the interest of the other party; and cesses. For example, Holyst et al. developed a model of
 there are two aspects of social conflict: static and social opinion, which is based on this approach.33
dynamic. The method based on the Langevin equations has a
number of advantages.
The static aspect is the analysis of the parties (subjects)
involved in the conflict (individuals, organizations, groups) 1. As has already been mentioned, the method allows
and relations between them (classification: ethnic, confes- one to account for the demonstration of the free
sional, professional).3 will of its individual participants, as well as other
4 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)

random demonstrations of the external environ- Here, a divergent type of diffusion is assigned, and
ment for the social system. function
2. The behavior of the social system can be treated as
  1 ðxi xj Þ
2

a whole and as particular individuals/particles. q xi , xj = pffiffiffiffi e e2


3. This approach allows identifying some distinguish- e p
ing stable modes of functioning of social systems,
is used instead of the delta function; for ðe ! 0Þ it asymp-
depending on various initial conditions.
totically tends to the latter, considerably simplifying the
4. Diffusion equations, as a mathematical apparatus,
process of computer  modeling.

are sufficiently validated and known from the point
The function f xi , xj characterizes relations between
of view of conducting numerical simulations.
individuals, which is modeled here using classical
Gaussian distribution:
The model is based on the idea that individuals of a
society interact by means of a communication field (simi-   1 ðxi xj Þ
2

lar to the work of Holyst et al.33). This field is induced by f xi , xj = pffiffiffiffi e u2 ,


u p
each individual of the society, modeling informational
interaction between individuals. However, it should be u = kci ksi + kcj ksj ,
kept in mind that society, which is considered here, can
hardly be viewed as an object in classical physical spatial which is fairly widely used in various sociological studies.
topology. Really, in terms of transfer of information from Here ksi is the coefficient of scientific-technological prog-
individual to individual, space in society has both classical ress and development of the ith individual/group of indi-
spatial coordinates and some additional specific character- viduals; kci is the coefficient of social activity of the ith
istics. This is because of the fact that in the contemporary individual/group of individuals; and d is the inverse
informational world it is not necessary to be near the object Kronecker delta.
to transfer information to the object. Coefficients ks and kc are used for each separate indi-
Thus, society is a multidimensional, social-physical vidual or group in the system, and a total coefficient of the
space reflecting a possibility of one individual to ‘‘reach’’ entire system is found by fractal transformation of the val-
another individual with their communication field—that ues of all individuals and clusters of the system.42
is, to affect the individual and their parameters, and possi- Translations of an individual are described using the
bility to move in this space. Accordingly, the position of Langevin equation:
an individual relative to other individuals also models the !
level of relations between them and their involvement in dxi X
N
∂   pffiffiffiffiffiffi
= kci ksi h xj , t + 2Dji ðtÞ ð2Þ
the informational exchange. Close positions in this model dt ∂xj
j = 1, j6¼i
show that there is regular exchange of information and
social connection between them. With such a formulation in which stochastic force ji ðtÞ is introduced, which models
of the problem, a conflict can be considered to be a type a random factor in society, and, in particular cases, exter-
of interaction between individuals or groups thereof, nal effects on individuals.
which results in a sharp increase of the distance (i.e., When solving Equations (1) and (2), the differential
social distance: Dx = xi– xj, where x is a coordinate in equation
social-physical space, i,j = [1, N], where N the is number
of individuals or consolidated groups of individuals) dh ∂h dxi ∂h
between them, and a further increase of the distance testi- = +
dt ∂xi dt ∂t
fies to increasing conflict.
Thus, a communication field can be represented with a should also be taken into account.
diffusion equation as shown in Equation (1): In a general case, initial conditions for Equations (1)–
(3) can be taken as follows:
∂ XN    
hð x i , t Þ = f xi , xj q xi , xj d(ksj + kcj ), (k i + k i ) 



∂t j=1
s c
ð1Þ xi  ¼ x0i hðxi ; t ¼ 0Þ ¼ h0i 
t¼0
+ Dðhðxi , tÞ  hðxi , t0 ÞÞ
It is also necessary to assign a range of characteristic
parameters 0 \ kc , ks , D \ 1 (individual distribution).
Petukhov et al. 5

   
5. Approximate solution of the system ∂h  ∂h 
x0i = 0, h0 ðx0i , 0Þ = = = 1 ð5Þ
∂xi  t=0 ∂t  t=0
For the simplest model of two interacting individuals or xi = x0i xi = x0i

two consolidated groups of individuals (i.e., belonging to


the first two equations of system (3) are integrated, using
the same social, confessional, ethnic group, etc.), assumed
Equations (4) and (5), after which the following expression
to be in a state of conflict, accounting for external effects,
results:
Equations (1) and (2) can be written as:
8 ðt ðt c2 + 1
∂h ð x , t Þ c2 + 1 t2  2 ðxi ðuÞxj ðuÞÞ
2
>
> 1 2 1  ð x 1 x 2 Þ2
hð x , t Þ = D x ð uÞdu + D + ak j
k i
e c du
>
> = D½hðx1 , tÞ  hðx1 , 0Þ + akc ks e c 2 i i
2 c s
>
> ∂t
>
>
0 0
>
> ∂hðx2 , tÞ 2
c + 1ðx x Þ2 j=3  i
>
< = D½hðx2 , tÞ  hðx2 , 0Þ + akc1 ks2 e c2 1 2
∂t
pffiffiffiffiffiffi ð6Þ
>
> dx1 1 1 ∂hðx2 , t Þ
>
> = k k
c s + 2D j 1 ðt Þ
>
> dt ∂x2 Using Equation (6), the last two equations of system (3)
>
>
>
> dx ∂h ð x , t Þ p ffiffiffiffiffiffi can be transformed, based on the continuity of all the func-
>
: 2 = kc2 ks2 1
+ 2Dj2 ðtÞ ð3Þ tions, into the following form:
dt ∂x1

8 2 3
> ðt pffiffiffiffiffiffi
>
> dx c 2
+ 1  c2 + 1
ðx ð uÞx ðu Þ Þ2
>
>
1
= kc1 ks1 4Dt + 2akc1 ks2 ðx1 ðuÞ  x2 ðuÞÞe c2 1 2
du5 + 2Dj1 ðtÞ
>
> 2
< dt c
0
2 3 ð7Þ
>
> 2 ðt pffiffiffiffiffiffi
> dx
> 2 = k 2 k 2 4Dt + 2ak 2 k 1 c + 1  c2 + 1
ðx ð uÞx ðu Þ Þ2
>
>
> c s c s 2
ðx2 ðuÞ  x1 ðuÞÞe c2 1 2
du5 + 2Dj2 ðtÞ
: dt c
0

After time differentiation of Equation (7), the following


forms of differential equations are obtained:
8 2  
> d x1 2a c2 + 1 kc1 ks1 kc1 ks2 2
c + 1ðx x Þ2 pffiffiffiffiffiffi dj ðtÞ
>
> 1 1
ðx1  x2 Þe c2 1 2 + 2D 1
< dt2 = kc ks D + 2 dt
c
 2  2 2 2 1 ð8Þ
>
> 2
d x2 2a c + 1 kc ks kc ks  c 2 +1
ðx x Þ 2 p ffiffiffiffiffiffi dj ðtÞ
>
: 2 = kc2 ks2 D + ðx2  x1 Þe c2 1 2 + 2D 2
dt 2 dt
c
To further simplify the solution of the problem in ques-
tion, it is assumed that equality of active stochastic forces
for individuals or various groups,

j1 ðtÞ = j2 ðtÞ
where:
is satisfied.
1 Then, introducing new designations:
c = kc1 + ks1 + kc2 + ks2 , a = pffiffiffiffi dkc1 + ks1 , kc2 + ks2
c p
y = x1  x2 ,
To obtain the approximate analytical solutions of  
A = D kc1 ks1  kc2 ks2
Equation (3), series expansion is used with the accuracy of  2 
up to the quantity of the first order of smallness for c +1  1 1 1 2 
B = 2a 2
kc ks kc ks + kc2 ks2 kc2 ks1
Dx = xi  x0i , Dt = t  0 of difference: c
2
   c +1
∂h  ∂h  C= ,
hðxi , tÞ  hðx0i , tÞ’ Dx + Dt ð4Þ c2
∂xi  t=0 ∂t  t=0
xi = x0i xi = x0i
after finding the difference of Equation (8), the following
Then, assuming the following initial conditions: equation is obtained:
6 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)

Figure 1. System (11) solutions.

rffiffiffiffiffiffi rffiffiffiffiffiffi
d2y 2 A A 1 1 A 1 1
2
= A + ByeCy , B . 0, C . 0 ð9Þ  = 0,  = e 2 ,  = e 2 ð13Þ
dt B B 2C B 2C
Now, Equation (9) is rewritten in Cauchy form: Naturally, if conditions opposite to Equation (12) are
8 satisfied as follows:
> dy
< =z rffiffiffiffiffiffi rffiffiffiffiffiffi
dt ð10Þ A 1 1 A 1 1
>
: dz = A + ByeCy2  \ e , .
2 e 2 , A=B 6¼ 0 ð14Þ
B 2C B 2C
dt
there are no equilibrium conditions.
Equation (10) can be viewed as a dynamic system
As Equation (10) is conservative, the law of conserva-
describing a process of interaction between two individu-
tion of energy holds. Then, knowing the energy integral of
als or groups thereof.
Equation (10), it is possible to find phase trajectories of
As is known, a dynamic system describes a process of
the system in question. As is known, in a conservative sys-
transition from one state to another.43–44 The phase picture
tem, phase trajectories are lines of the level of the poten-
of Equation (10) will be represented by a set of all states;
tial energy function,43 which has the following form:
to determine equilibrium states of this set, it is necessary to
solve the following system of equations:
ðy
2
Cu2 BeCy
 V = A + Bue du = Ay + ð15Þ
z=0 2C
2 ð11Þ
yeCy = AB : 0

For social systems, the notion of energy is either mean-


Analysis of Equation (11) is readily represented graphi-
ingless or has another definition. However, their dynamic
cally (Figure 1):
behavior qualitatively coincides with the behavior of con-
As follows from Figure 1, two equilibrium conditions
servative mechanical systems, and, in the phase plane, the
are possible if condition
qualitative behavior of their phase trajectories is similar.44
rffiffiffiffiffiffi rffiffiffiffiffiffi As among parameters A, B, C only A can invert its sign,
1 1 A 1 1 A only two possible situations are to be considered. First, if
 e 2 \ \ e 2 ,  6¼ 0 ð12Þ
2C B 2C B conditions
is satisfied, and one equilibrium condition if one of the rffiffiffiffiffiffi
three following equalities are satisfied: 1 1 A
 e 2 \  \ 0, A . 0 ð16Þ
2C B
Petukhov et al. 7

Figure 2. Phase trajectories for the dependence (16). Figure 3. Phase trajectories for the dependence (17).

are satisfied, relations V(y) represented in Figure 2 and the


related phase trajectories are realized, where y_ = dy
dt .
Second, if conditions
rffiffiffiffiffiffi
A 1 1
0\  \ e 2, A \ 0 ð17Þ
B 2C
are satisfied, relation V(y) represented in Figure 3 and the
related phase trajectories are realized.
With the introduction of social friction in the system,
the picture changes significantly (Figure 4).
However, this is a separate task, and requires a separate
article.
Based on the analysis of the obtained phase pictures
(Figures 2 and 3), it can be concluded that there exists a
Figure 4. Phase trajectories for system with introduction of
certain stability region (confined in the pictures by a stable social friction.
loop of the separatrix)—that is, the region within the
closed trajectory.
The boundaries of this region are defined by values of This can be interpreted as the existence of an interaction
characteristic parameters of individuals, or groups thereof, region, parameterization of which makes relatively abrupt
as well as the society as a whole: ksi , kci , D. These coeffi- fluctuations of social coordinates (i.e., a state of conflict)
cients, strictly speaking, can change in time as a result of highly improbable or impossible.
the interaction of individuals, thus affecting the dimensions It is true that in a society, where social and informa-
and position of the stability region. However, in the present tional contact occur, mutual permeation of different cul-
study, only a short-term scenario was considered—thus, tures and ethnic groups is sufficient where particular
their possible variation in time was assumed insignificant. groups of population do not separate themselves, creating
Individuals and groups thereof having parameters nec- closed subsystems (in which conditions substantially differ
essary for getting into the stability region at an initial time from those of the main system), the possibility of initiating
do not move apart from one another to a relatively large ethnic-social, confessional conflicts, for example, is rela-
social distance as a result of reciprocal interaction. They tively minimized.
remain at a distance within which social relations and Outside the stability region, phase trajectories are diver-
active information exchange are possible. gent and not close. Individuals/groups of individuals that
8 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)

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