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Modeling conflict in a social system Ó The Author(s) 2018
DOI: 10.1177/0037549718761573
using diffusion equations journals.sagepub.com/home/sim
Abstract
In this paper the problem of modeling social conflicts of various types with the help of diffusion equations is discussed.
The main approaches to and methods of mathematical modeling in contemporary humanitarian sciences are outlined.
The main concepts of social conflicts, means of their classification and interpretation – including ethnic-social, religious,
and other conflicts – are considered. The notion of a conflict in a social system is defined in terms of mathematical mod-
eling. A model based on the Langevin diffusion equation is introduced. The model is based on the idea that all individuals
in a society interact by means of a communication field. This field is induced by each individual in the society and forms
informational interaction between individuals.
An analytical solution of the system of equations is given in the first approximation for a diverging type of diffusion. It is
shown that even for a simple case of the interaction of two groups of individuals the developed model makes it possible
to discover characteristic laws of a conflict in a social system. It allows determining the effect of social distance in a soci-
ety on the conditions of generation of such processes, with account of external effects or a random factor.
Based on the analysis of the phase portraits for the given system, it has been concluded that there exists a stability
region within which the social system is stable and non-conflicting.
Keywords
Communication field, diffusion equations, Langevin equation, social conflict, society
Taking into account the important impact of such phe- specific historical event. They are designed for dis-
nomena on a society and all the processes inside it, any covering basic laws characterizing the processes of
ways of predicting and discovering characteristic laws of the type in question. Accordingly, such mathemati-
social conflicts are certainly of paramount importance. cal models are called basic.17
One of the directions in which to search for possible
solutions to this problem is forecasting and describing a In the classical models,18–24 the dynamics of nonlinear
social conflict mathematically—that is, using mathemati- systems are modeled using multidimensional differential
cal modeling.10–15 equations,22,25,26 difference equations,27,28 the mathemati-
cal apparatus of cellular automation,27,29 the mathematical
apparatus of catastrophe theory,30,31 the mathematical
2. Mathematical modeling in social apparatus of the self-organized criticality theory,32,33 sto-
science chastic differential equations of Langevin and Ito-
Stratonovich,27,32 analysis of systems with chaos, and
Significant progress has been made in modeling of social reconstruction of stable states (attractors) along time
and political processes in recent years.16 Sociology utilizes series.10,27,29 Holyst et al. presented an effective model of
such areas of mathematics as statistics, the theory of sto- social opinion, based on representing the interaction
chastic processes, queueing theory, informatics, decision between individuals in the form of Brownian motion.33
theory, game theory, differential equations, mathematical There are also numerous studies in the field of modeling
methods of synergy and chaos theory, graph and network social and political processes using various types of mathe-
theory, theory of categories, systems theory, mathematical matical models.34–40
physics, and others. It is obvious that new methods such as However, mathematical modeling, which is based on
evolutionary modeling (genetic algorithms) and neural nonlinear dynamics, being widely spread in natural
networks can be applied to the study of sociological prob- sciences, is relatively rare in sociological research.
lems as well. The growth of generalization of mathemati-
cal modeling approaches in sociology increases the role of
more transcendental areas of mathematics such as general 3. The main concepts of a social conflict
algebra, topology, and functional analysis.10,16 The contemporary literature on sociology abounds in clas-
The already available models can be tentatively subdi- sifications of types of conflicts according to various
vided into three groups. grounds. Consider some of them from the viewpoint of
defining a social conflict as a mathematical notion in our
1. Models/concepts based on discovering and ana- model.
lyzing general historic laws and representing From the viewpoint of subjects involved in a conflict,
them in the form of cognitive schemes describ- four types of conflicts can be discerned.
ing logical relations between various factors
affecting historical processes (e.g., Goldstein, 1. Intrapersonal conflict (this can appear in the fol-
Wallerstain, Goumilyov, Rozov). Such models lowing forms: a role conflict—it appears when
feature a high degree of generalization, but contradictory requirements are imposed on a per-
are of a purely logical, conceptual—rather than son, regarding what the result of his/her work has
mathematical—nature. to be; intrapersonal—it can result from a mismatch
2. Special mathematical models of the simulation between the working requirements and the individ-
type, designed for describing particular historical ual’s needs and values).
events and phenomena (e.g., Pavlovskiy, Borodkin, 2. Interpersonal conflict (this can manifest in the form
Meadows, Forrester). In such models, the main of a clash of individuals having different charac-
focus is accounting for and describing factors and ters, views, or values, and is the most common
processes affecting the studied phenomena. The conflict).
applicability of such models is, as a rule, limited 3. Conflict between an individual and a group (when
by a fairly short spatial and time interval; they are an individual assumes a position differing from the
‘‘tied up’’ to a particular historical event and can- position of the group).
not be extrapolated onto longer periods of time. 4. Intergroup conflict.
3. Mathematical models, intermediate between the
two above types. These models describe a certain Conflicts can also be classified according to the spheres
class of social processes without giving a detailed of activity, as: political, social-economic, national-ethnic,
description of the features characteristic for each and others.7–8
Petukhov et al. 3
However, it is vital to identify some fundamental para- The dynamic aspect studies interests of the parties as
meter of the social conflict that will be the base of the stimuli for conflict behavior of people. The definition of
developing model. It is obvious that the parameter should conflict dynamics is a set of responses to external stimuli.1
be logically justified within the framework of the modern From the above discussion, the following statements for
concepts of social conflict. There are quite a few concepts our model can be made.
of the theory of social conflict. Some of the best-known
are as follows: 1. A major social conflict, as a rule, is accompanied
by an information and social distance between indi-
Coser’s concepts viduals and groups of individuals. A basis for such
a distance can be ethnic, cultural, confessional, as
in any society there exists inevitable inequality, per- well as economic differences. The causes of such a
manent psychological discontent of its members, conflict can have various bases: different levels of
interpersonal and intergroup tension (emotional, aggression of social, ethnic groups; contradicting
psychic disorder), leading to social conflict; cultural and economic intentions; and so on. In
social conflict as incongruity between the reality other words, the social-information distance is not
and ideas of various social groups or individuals the cause of the conflict but in general comes with
about what it should be like; and it.
social conflict as struggle for values and pretensions 2. This distance increases in the process of conflict,
to a certain status, power, and resources, in which especially in its extremal forms (revolutions, civil
the antagonists aim at neutralizing, damaging, or wars, etc.), bringing the opposing parties to the
eliminating the opponent.2 attitude of irreconcilability. Unfortunately, history
Conflict model of society by Darendorf: knows very few examples of short- and medium-
term positive scenarios for such situations.
permanent social fluctuations in society, suffering 3. Hence, the point of no return, which is under con-
social conflict; sideration, is somewhere before the initiation of the
any society is based on making some of its mem- conflict, and this transition of a social system from
bers obey other members, meaning inequality of one state to another is determining.
social positions in the distribution of power; and
difference in the social position of various social
groups and individuals leading to reciprocal ten- 4. Mathematical model
sions and contradictions resulting in the alteration
of the social structure of the society.3 For mathematical modeling, an important point is that
social and political processes cannot be rigorously
General theory of conflict by Boulding: assigned. They tend to be subjected to minor changes and
fluctuations. As an analogy, a social process is similar to a
all conflicts have common development patterns; Brownian particle—that is, a particle moving along a
their detailed study and analysis makes it possible fairly definite trajectory which, on closer examination, is
to develop a generalized theory—‘‘the general theory highly winding and broken. These small fluctuations are
of conflict’’—which will allow society to control con- explained by chaotic motion of other molecules. In social
flicts, manage them, and predict their consequences; processes, fluctuations can be assumed as manifestations
Boulding argues that conflict is an intrinsic part of of free will of its individual participants, as well as other
social life (striving for struggling with the similar is random manifestations of the external medium.41
in human nature); In physics, such processes are generally described using
a conflict is a situation in which each of the parties the Langevin stochastic diffusion equation, which is also,
tries to adopt an attitude that is incompatible and con- to a certain degree, tested for modeling some social pro-
trary in respect to the interest of the other party; and cesses. For example, Holyst et al. developed a model of
there are two aspects of social conflict: static and social opinion, which is based on this approach.33
dynamic. The method based on the Langevin equations has a
number of advantages.
The static aspect is the analysis of the parties (subjects)
involved in the conflict (individuals, organizations, groups) 1. As has already been mentioned, the method allows
and relations between them (classification: ethnic, confes- one to account for the demonstration of the free
sional, professional).3 will of its individual participants, as well as other
4 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)
random demonstrations of the external environ- Here, a divergent type of diffusion is assigned, and
ment for the social system. function
2. The behavior of the social system can be treated as
1 ðxi xj Þ
2
5. Approximate solution of the system ∂h ∂h
x0i = 0, h0 ðx0i , 0Þ = = = 1 ð5Þ
∂xi t=0 ∂t t=0
For the simplest model of two interacting individuals or xi = x0i xi = x0i
8 2 3
> ðt pffiffiffiffiffiffi
>
> dx c 2
+ 1 c2 + 1
ðx ð uÞx ðu Þ Þ2
>
>
1
= kc1 ks1 4Dt + 2akc1 ks2 ðx1 ðuÞ x2 ðuÞÞe c2 1 2
du5 + 2Dj1 ðtÞ
>
> 2
< dt c
0
2 3 ð7Þ
>
> 2 ðt pffiffiffiffiffiffi
> dx
> 2 = k 2 k 2 4Dt + 2ak 2 k 1 c + 1 c2 + 1
ðx ð uÞx ðu Þ Þ2
>
>
> c s c s 2
ðx2 ðuÞ x1 ðuÞÞe c2 1 2
du5 + 2Dj2 ðtÞ
: dt c
0
j1 ðtÞ = j2 ðtÞ
where:
is satisfied.
1 Then, introducing new designations:
c = kc1 + ks1 + kc2 + ks2 , a = pffiffiffiffi dkc1 + ks1 , kc2 + ks2
c p
y = x1 x2 ,
To obtain the approximate analytical solutions of
A = D kc1 ks1 kc2 ks2
Equation (3), series expansion is used with the accuracy of 2
up to the quantity of the first order of smallness for c +1 1 1 1 2
B = 2a 2
kc ks kc ks + kc2 ks2 kc2 ks1
Dx = xi x0i , Dt = t 0 of difference: c
2
c +1
∂h ∂h C= ,
hðxi , tÞ hðx0i , tÞ’ Dx + Dt ð4Þ c2
∂xi t=0 ∂t t=0
xi = x0i xi = x0i
after finding the difference of Equation (8), the following
Then, assuming the following initial conditions: equation is obtained:
6 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 00(0)
rffiffiffiffiffiffi rffiffiffiffiffiffi
d2y 2 A A 1 1 A 1 1
2
= A + ByeCy , B . 0, C . 0 ð9Þ = 0, = e 2 , = e 2 ð13Þ
dt B B 2C B 2C
Now, Equation (9) is rewritten in Cauchy form: Naturally, if conditions opposite to Equation (12) are
8 satisfied as follows:
> dy
< =z rffiffiffiffiffiffi rffiffiffiffiffiffi
dt ð10Þ A 1 1 A 1 1
>
: dz = A + ByeCy2 \ e , .
2 e 2 , A=B 6¼ 0 ð14Þ
B 2C B 2C
dt
there are no equilibrium conditions.
Equation (10) can be viewed as a dynamic system
As Equation (10) is conservative, the law of conserva-
describing a process of interaction between two individu-
tion of energy holds. Then, knowing the energy integral of
als or groups thereof.
Equation (10), it is possible to find phase trajectories of
As is known, a dynamic system describes a process of
the system in question. As is known, in a conservative sys-
transition from one state to another.43–44 The phase picture
tem, phase trajectories are lines of the level of the poten-
of Equation (10) will be represented by a set of all states;
tial energy function,43 which has the following form:
to determine equilibrium states of this set, it is necessary to
solve the following system of equations:
ðy
2
Cu2 BeCy
V = A + Bue du = Ay + ð15Þ
z=0 2C
2 ð11Þ
yeCy = AB : 0
Figure 2. Phase trajectories for the dependence (16). Figure 3. Phase trajectories for the dependence (17).
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