Midterm Exam (19ECE)

Essay Part
(Time: 20 munites)
Question 1. A production process produces electronic component parts. It has
presumably been established that the probability of a defective part is 0.01. During
a test of this presumption, 500 items are sampled randomly and 15 defective out of
the 500 were observed.

(1) What is your response and comments to the presumption that the process is 1%
defective?

(2) Under the presumption of a 1% defective process, how can you compute the
probability that only 3 would be found defective?

(3) Do (1) and (2) again using the Poisson approximation.

Question 2. A population’s mean is 60, and its standard deviation is 5. In each case
below, a random variable is defined and information about the population’s
distribution is given. How to estimate the probability that each random variable will
either be greater than 66 or less than 54.

1. The random variable is a single random observation from the population (Note
that nothing is known about the population’s distribution). Hint: You can
use Chebyshev's inequality: " P(|X-μ|≥k*σ)≤1/k2, for any k≥1 " to estimate the
probability.

2. The population’s distribution is normal. The random variable is a single random

observation from the population.

3. The population’s distribution is normal. The random variable is the mean of a

random sample of 4 observations from the population.

4. The random variable is the mean of a random sample of 40 observations from the
population.

Question 3. An urn contains 7 balls: 3 red and 4 blue. Balls are randomly drawn
from the urn, one after the other, without replacement. Let X be the number of red
balls drawn before drawing the first blue ball.
1. Construct the probability-distribution table for X.

2. What is the expected value of X?

3. Consider the same variable X. Answer questions in 1. and 2. if balls are

randomly drawn from the urn, one after the other, with replacement.