Week #5

 Random variables

 Discrete

 Continuous
 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
• Bernoulli
• Binomial
• Hypergeometric
• Poisson
• Geometric
• Negative binomial
• Multinomial
• Bivariate hypergeometric
 Bernoulli

• Assumptions:

1. Two possible out comes

2. Independent trials
3. Probability of success fixed
4. Experiment is performed only n=1
• Parameters • Properties

n=1 and p=probability of success; 1. Mean=p

Bernoulli:(n=1,p) 2. Variance=p(1-p)
3. Standard deviation=

• Bernoulli density function

P(X=x)=; x=0,1
• Examples

1. What is the probability of non defective outcome if the defective rate is 0.09
2. What is the chances of patient survival after a heart surgery if the chance of its failure is 0.05
3. What is probability of sunny day if the chance of cloudy day is 0.54
4. Find probability of a student pass the SAT test if its chances of failure is 0.07
5. What is the probability head if toss a single coin
 BINOMIAL

• Assumptions:

1. Two possible out comes

2. Independent trials
3. Probability of success fixed
4. Experiment is performed only n>1
 Parameters Properties

n>1 and p=probability of success; 1. Mean=np

Binomial:(n>1,p) 2. Variance=np(1-p)
3. Standard deviation=

• Binomial density function

P(X=x)=; x=0,1,…n
Examples:
1. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are
known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that (a) at least10 survive,
(b) from 3 to 8 survive, and (c) exactly 5 survive?
2. It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all drinking wells in a certain rural
community. In order to gain some insight into the true extent of the problem, it is
determined that some testing is necessary. It is too expensive to test all of the wells in
the area, so 10 are randomly selected for testing.
3. According to a survey by the Administrative Management Society, one-half of U.S.
companies give employees 4 weeks of vacation after they have been with the company for
15 years. Find the probability that among 6 companies surveyed at random, the number
that give employees 4 weeks of vacation after 15 years of employment is
(a) anywhere from 2 to 5;
(b) fewer than 3.
4. Suppose that airplane engines operate independently and fail with probability equal to 0.4.
Assuming that a plane makes a safe flight if at least one-half of its engines run,
determine whether a 4-engine plane or a 2- engine plane has the higher probability for a
successful flight
 HYPERGEOMETRIC

• Assumptions:

1. Two possible out comes

2. Dependent trials
3. Probability of success is not fixed
4. Experiment is performed only n>1
Parameters Properties

• N=total out comes • Mean =

• k=parameter of interest • Variance=
• n=sample of size or selected outcome • Standard deviation=
from N
• Hyp:( n, k, N)
 Density function of Hypergeometric

• P(X=x)=; x=0,1,2,3,…n

• N=total out comes

• k=parameter of interest
• n=sample of size or selected outcome from N
 EXAMPLES
1. Lots of 40 components each are deemed unacceptable if they contain 3 or more
defectives. The procedure for sampling a lot is to select 5 components at random
and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the probability that exactly 1
defective is found in the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
2. To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places 6 narcotic tablets in a bottle
containing 9 vitamin tablets that are similar in appearance. If the customs
official selects 3 of the tablets at random for analysis, what is the probability that
the traveler will be arrested for illegal possession of narcotics
3. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If the lot contains 3
defective missiles that will not fire, what is the probability that (a) all 4 will fire? (b)
at most 2 will not fire?
4. It is estimated that 4000 of the 10,000 voting residents of a town are against a new
sales tax. If 15 eligible voters are selected at random and asked their opinion, what
is the probability that at most 7 favor the new tax?
 POISSON

• Assumptions:

1. Probability of success is vary small and number of trials are vary large.
2. Number of occurrence s of a random variable is define on given time interval
such as in minutes, days, years, seconds and in region or space.
3. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region of
space is independent of the number that occur in any other disjoint time interval
or region. In this sense we say that the Poisson process has no memory.
 Parameters Properties

• Mean=
• If “n is very large and “p <0.05 “ • Variance=
is very small then use Mean=np
• Standard deviation=
• If average rate is given then use
Mean==np
 Poisson Density Function

• P(X=x)= ; x=0,1,…
• Where is average rate
 EXAMPLES
• An inventory study determines that, on average, demands for a particular item
at a warehouse are made 5 times per day. What is the probability that on a
given day this item is requested (a) more than 5 times? (b) not at all?

• On average, a textbook author makes two word processing errors per page on
the first draft of her textbook. What is the probability that on the next page
she will make (a) 4 or more errors? (b) no errors?

• The average number of field mice per acre in a 5-acre wheat field is estimated
to be 12. Find the probability that fewer than 7 field mice are found (a) on a
given acre; (b) on 2 of the next 3 acres inspected.
• The probability that a person will die when he or she contracts a
virus infection is 0.001. Of the next 4000 people infected, what
is the mean number who will die?
•
• A company purchases large lots of a certain kind of electronic
device. A method is used that rejects a lot if 2 or more
defective units are found in a random sample of 100 units.
(a) What is the mean number of defective units found in a sample
of 100 units if the lot is 1% defective?
(b) What is the variance

• Suppose that, on average, 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical

error in preparing his or her income tax return. If 10,000
returns are selected at random and examined, find the probability
that 6, 7, or 8 of them contain an error.