Binomial Probability

Finite 8-4
• Binomial probability distributions allow us to
deal with circumstances in which the
outcomes belong to two relevant categories
such as acceptable/defective or
survived/died.

Binomial Distribution
A binomial probability distribution results from a
procedure that meets all the following requirements:

1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials.

2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of
any individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities
in the other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into
two categories (commonly referred to as success
and failure).
4. The probability of a success remains the same in
all trials.

Binomial Probability Distribution

Which of the following are binomial experiments?
(a) A player rolls a pair of fair die 10 times. The number X of
7’s rolled is recorded. Yes, Binomial
(b) The 11 largest airlines had an on-time percentage of
84.7% in November, 2001 according to the Air Travel
Consumer Report. In order to assess reasons for delays, an
official with the FAA randomly selects flights until she finds
10 that were not on time. The number of flights X that need
to be selected is recorded. No, not set amount
(c ) In a class of 30 students, 55% are female. The
instructor randomly selects 4 students. The number X of
females selected is recorded.
No, Probability changes

EXAMPLE Identifying Binomial

Experiments
S and F (success and failure) denote the two
possible categories of all outcomes; p and q will
denote the probabilities of S and F, respectively, so

P(S) = p (p = probability of success)

P(F) = 1 – p = q (q = probability of failure)

Notation for Binomial

Probability Distributions
n denotes the fixed number of trials.
x denotes a specific number of successes in n trials,
so x can be any whole number between 0 and n,
inclusive.
p denotes the probability of success in one of the n
trials.
q denotes the probability of failure in one of the n
trials.
P(x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x
successes among the n trials.

Notation (continued)
 Be sure that x and p both refer to the same
category being called a success.

 When sampling without replacement,

consider events to be independent if n <
0.05N.

Important Hints
 P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n – x )!x!

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n
where
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 – p)

Using the Binomial

Probability Formula
 n! n-x
P(x) = (n – x )!x! • p
x
• q

The number of
outcomes with
exactly x
successes
among n trials

Rationale for the Binomial

Probability Formula
 n! n-x
P(x) = (n – x )!x! • p x
• q

Number of The probability of

outcomes with x successes
exactly x among n trials for
successes any one particular
among n trials order

Binomial Probability Formula

According to the United States Census Bureau, 18.3% of all
households have 3 or more cars.
(a) In a random sample of 20 households, what is the
probability that exactly 5 have 3 or more cars?

P(X=5) = 20C5 • (.183)5 • (.817)15 = 0.1535

EXAMPLE
 According to the United States Census Bureau, 18.3% of all
households have 3 or more cars.
(b) In a random sample of 20 households, what is the
probability that less than 4 have 3 or more cars?

P(X<4) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3)= .4885

EXAMPLE
 According to the United States Census Bureau, 18.3% of all
households have 3 or more cars.
(c) In a random sample of 20 households, what is the
probability that at least 4 have 3 or more cars?

P(X≥4) = P(X=4) +…+ P(X=20) = 1 - P(X≤3)=.5115

EXAMPLE
• If a coin is tossed ten times then what will be
the probability for getting 7 heads and 3 tails
in 10 tosses?

Example
• In a store, out of all the people who came
there thirty percent bought a shirt. If four
people came in the store together then find
the probability of one of them buying a shirt.

Example
• In a hospital sixty percent of patients are
dying of a disease. If on a certain day, eighth
patients got admitted in the hospital for that
disease what are the chances of three to
survive?

Example
• Suppose we are throwing a dice thrice. Find
the probability of finding a multiple of 3 in one
of the throws.

Example
• In a restaurant seventy percent of people order for
Chinese food and thirty percent for Italian food. A
group of three persons enter the restaurant. Find
the probability of at least two of them ordering for
Italian food.

• Probability for two ordering Italian food,

Example
• In a restaurant seventy percent of people order for
Chinese food and thirty percent for Italian food. A
group of three persons enter the restaurant. Find
the probability of at least two of them ordering for
Italian food.

• Probability for all three ordering Italian food

Example
• In a restaurant seventy percent of people order for
Chinese food and thirty percent for Italian food. A
group of three persons enter the restaurant. Find
the probability of at least two of them ordering for
Italian food.

• Hence, the probability for at least two

persons ordering Italian food is,

Example
• In an exam only ten percent students can qualify. If
a group of 4 students have appeared, find the
probability that at most one student will qualify?

Example
• A basket contains 70 good apples and 30 are
spoiled. Three apples are drawn at random
from basket.  What is the probability that of
the 3 apples,

Exactly two good apples

Example
• A basket contains 70 good apples and 30 are
spoiled. Three apples are drawn at random
from basket.  What is the probability that of
the 3 apples,

At least one is good

Example
• A basket contains 70 good apples and 30 are
spoiled. Three apples are drawn at random
from basket.  What is the probability that of
the 3 apples,

At most two are good

Example
• Consider families with 4 children.  What is
the probability of having

two boys and two girls

Example
• Consider families with 4 children.  What is
the probability of having

at least one boy

 P(at least oneboy) = 1 – P(no boys)

P(at least one boy) = 1 –
P(at least one boy) =

Example
• Consider families with 4 children.  What is
the probability of having

no boys

Example
• Consider families with 4 children.  What is
the probability of having

at most two boys

Example
Homework