Hypothesis-driven problem solving

tangible results

strategy consulting

define & refine

business integration

The Labyrinth Problem

• Most effective way to

solve a labyrinth
problem?
Start

• Usually to start from the

goal...

• ...this is the main idea

behind hypothesis-driven Goal
problem solving
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Agenda
• Part 1: About Monator
– Core business, clients...

• Part 2: Our approach to problem solving

– General framework, problem solving tools, how can you use
this for your paper...

• Part 3: Our approach to HCI

– Usability value context, Soft System Methodology,
Excercises...

• Part 4: Conclusions

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Key issues

• Understand the big picture

• Careful problem formulation
• Starting from the end will save time

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What does Monator do?

• Gothenburg-based Management and IT

Consultancy firm

• Core business
– Help our clients define and refine their businesses

• Areas of work
1) Strategy consulting
2) Business integration

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Our Clients
• Growth-oriented small and midsized companies
• Examples:

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 Part 2

Our approach to problem solving

A general framework

Hypothesis-driven & fact-based problem solving

primary 1. What’s the problem?

focus
today
2. What’s probably a solution?

3. Analyze facts and data behind the problem

4. Present the solution

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1. What’s the problem?

• Identify and isolate the core problem

• MECE approach
– Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive
– Concept formulated by McKinsey & Co
– Helps you identify non-overlapping boundaries of the
problem

• MECE for crossing a river

– Mutually Exclusive: taking the bridge or the boat
– Collectively Exhaustive: all valid options for crossing the river

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Tools: Logic trees (1)

• Logic tree break down

– Shows the relations between the components of
the problem
Customers ...

Revenues Prices ...

Products ...
Profits

Fixed ...
Costs
Variable ...

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Tools: Logic trees (2)

• Turn to the person next to you.

• Use the Logic trees approach to identify the
components of the following problem:
– Your car has stopped due to an engine failure
• Take notes of your discussions

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2. What’s probably a solution?

• Suggest a hypothesis for a solution

– Will help your data gathering and analysis

• Disaggregate the issues

– What issues have to be fulfilled in order for the
hypothesis to be valid?
– Visualize with logic tree break downs

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Tools: The 5 Whys method (1)

• Made popular by Toyota in the 1970s

• Helps to quickly determine the root cause of a problem

• Easy to learn and apply

• Start at the end result and work backward (toward the root
cause) continually asking ”Why?”

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Tools: The 5 Whys method (2)

Problem: Unsatisfied client

1. Why is our client unhappy?

- Because we did not deliver our services on time.

2. Why were we unable to meet the agreed-upon timeline?

- The job took much longer than we thought.

3. Why did the job take longer?

- Because we underestimated the complexity of the job.

4. Why did we underestimate the complexity of the job?

- We made a quick estimate of the time needed to complete it, and did not list the individual stages
needed to complete the project.

5. Why did we not do this?

- Because we were running behind on other projects

Root cause: We need to review our time estimation and specification procedures

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Tools: The 5 Whys method (3)

• Turn to the person next to you.

• Use the 5 Whys method to find the root cause
to the following problem:
– One of you has failed your HCI exam
• Take notes of your discussions

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Tools: Reverse brainstorming

• Traditional brainstorming:
– “How do I solve or prevent this problem”

• Reverse brainstorming:
– “How can I possibly cause this problem”

• Surprisingly powerful technique

• Be sure to follow the basic “rules” of brainstorming

– Allow ideas to flow freely, don’t reject anything…

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3. Analyze facts and data behind the problem

• Data gathering
– First decide what data is needed to prove the
hypothesis
– AND what is not needed!

• Analysis
– Analyze the data to prove or disprove the
hypothesis
– If the facts disprove your hypothesis, change your
hypothesis

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4. Present the solution

• In many cases your presentation is your

solution
– The value in your solution will only be extracted if
you are able to explain/sell your ideas to your client

• Tailor your presentation to your audience

– What issues are critical for reaching client buy-in?

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How can you use this for your paper?
• Choose a topic and get familiarized with the domain

• Carefully formulate your research question

– Will save you time

• Find an initial hypothesis from the start

– Start from the goal and disaggregate all issues
– Try to build your case from start to finish before beginning to
work on your report (i.e. before splitting up the work)

• Conduct your analysis and present your ideas in your

paper

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Part 3

Our approach to HCI

Usability Value Contexts

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 Traditional methodology (1)

Systems Engineering Where does it bite the dust?

• A well-defined world • Soft Problems
• Technology-oriented • Hard to define
• (Hard) Problems have • Interaction: human(s) ↔
definite solutions technology
• One can define specific
goals to be achieved

• But?

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Traditional methodology (2)

Stages Questions to be answered
1. Define the problem What needs to change?
2. Analyze existing situation and relevant Where are we now?
systems
3. Identify objectives and constraints Where would we like to be?
4. Generate ways of meeting objectives How would we get there?
5. Formulate measures of performance How will we know when we have achieved
change?
6. Develop options What would the options be like?
7. Test these options Are these feasible/achievable/within budget?
8. Choose to implement the most relevant Choice (politics, power, equity)
option
9. Implement option Implementation brings about other problems
to be solved

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Soft Systems Methodology (1)

• Focuses on planning
• Incorporates people and technology
• Not finding a solution to a specific problem
– Instead understanding the situation
• Several problems may exist
– but we do not know which one we are interested in
until analysis has been made
• Different view per stakeholder
– BUT! contradiction is not default per say

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Soft Systems Methodology (2)

• Not for goal-oriented achievers

– “goals” are seldom reached
• The objective of SSM
– To provide a learning methodology to support
discussion on desirable and feasible changes of a
system (and/or an organization)
• Applying SSM in HCI engineering
– Establish purpose, people, constraints and
developing conceptual models of ideal system

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Keywords of SSM

• Stakeholder analysis
• Rich picture
– Visualizing problem expression
• Root definition (using CATWOE criteria)
– Core of human activity to be modeled
– Brief statement concerning an activity
– Defining the “Whats”
• Conceptual model
– Defining the “Hows”

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Overview of SSM Possible generation of

new SSM processes
(iterations)

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SSM applied – CATWOE analysis

• Multiple uses
– Consideration of elements applicable to root definition
• ”The letters”
– Client (or Customer)
– Actor
– Transformation
– World view (Weltanschauung)
Recall the definition of
– Owner RD: “Core of human
activity to be modeled”
– Environment
• GOAL: Find the Root Definition

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The C & A in CATWOE

Clients Actor
• Who are the system • Who transform inputs to
beneficiaries outputs

• Example (Ladok): • Example:

– People taking classes at – Lecturer
Chalmers

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The T & W in CATWOE

Transformation World view

• The process from inputs
into outputs
• Approach through the
5E’s criteria
– Efficacy, Efficiency,
Effectiveness, Ethicality,
Elegance
• Example:
– Take exam records and
turn into knowledge of
students of Chalmers
• The perspective from
which a root definition is
formed
• Example:
– Efficient management of
students info is vital for the
success of the school

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The O & E in CATWOE

Owner Environment
• The person(s) who has • The need(s) to be
commissioned the considered/factors
system (and with power affecting the
of veto) environment.

• Example: • Example:
– The Head Master of – Applicable laws and
Chalmers regulations on information
storage and privacy

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Concluding schematic example

• A system is owned by O
• To do W by A
• By means of T
• Given the contraints of E
• In order to achieve x for C

Optional home assignment: Develop critics of earlier shown example

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Exercises – Problem Solving & SSM

First exercise
– Objective:
• Using Hypothesis-based problem solving & CATWOE
analysis to do a preliminary study of a system solution
– Preferable prerequisites:
• Lecture notes
Second exercise
– Objective:
• Using 1st exercise’s case to find parameters influencing
system usability
– More info to come…
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 Part 4

Conclusions

What we have talked about today

• Understand the big picture

• Careful problem formulation
• Starting from the end will save time

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Thanks for listening!

Good luck with your papers & exam

Questions?

For more information about Monator please visit http://www.monator.com

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Extras – Example of a root definition: CRM

Organizational definition CRM Software System definition

A professionally manned system
in a small or medium-sized
company which enables the
company to manage and
enhance customer relations in
order to facilitate long-term
business success
A software system which holds
relevant information, supports
the coordination of business
processes and enables CRM
performance management in
order to company professionals
within sales, support and
general management to
effciently perform activities
related to customer relations.

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Extras – The 5E’s framework

• Efficacy
– Do the means work to justify the ends?
• Efficiency
– Are essential resources being considered?
• Effectiveness
– Does the T help the realization of longer term goals related
to the O’s potential?
• Ethicality
– Is T a proper thing to do?
• Elegance
– Is T aesthetically pleasing?

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Extras – Conceptual model

• Describes and specifies

– The major design metaphors and analogies
employed in the design, if any
– The concepts the system exposes to users
– The relationships between these concepts
– The mappings between the concept and the task-
domain the system is designed to support

(Adapted from Johnson & Henderson)

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