Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan 19 February 2021

AKD Research Weekly Review

research@akdsecurities.net Equities continue to remain volatile in the outgoing week, with the KSE-100 index closing at
+92-21-111-253-111 45,865pts, down 0.8%WoW. Expectations surrounding FATF announcement, month-end phenome-
na, international markets’ performance (10y US treasury yield at one year high level of 1.6% on
Indic e s KS E- 10 0 KS E- 3 0
account of stimulus while unnerving equity investors), and possible improvement in diplomatic
This week 45,865 19,173 relations with India, defined market sentiments in the outgoing week. Feb’21 FATF statement is
Last week 46,228 19,231 encouraging in our view with Pakistan in compliance with 24 out of 27 action items. As such, aver-
Change - 0.78% - 0.30% age volumes stood at 589.3mn shares in the current week compared to 595.0mn shares in the
previous week. Other major news flows were; i) Pakistan and IMF under discussion to either in-
crease remaining tranche size or extend the time frame beyond Sep’22 under the existing $6 bil-
Indic e s KMI- 3 0 Allsha re
lion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), ii) Govt. raising edible oil prices by 18% or PkR30/kg to PkR200/
This week 76,278 31,436 kg, iii) Jan’21 current account deficit clocking in at US$229mn, taking 7MFY21 current account
Last week 76,623 31,851 surplus to US$912mn), iv) Privatization commission planning to conduct three capital market trans-
- 0.45% - 1.30% actions in Apr’21 for divesting 20% shares of PAKRI, 10% of PPL, and 7% of OGDCL, v) Potential NAB
Mkt Ca p. P kRbn US $ bn investigation against certain IPPs delaying release of first tranche under agreement with IPPs, and
lastly vi) Govt. likely to raise ~US$1bn from Eurobonds to be issued next month. Within major sec-
This week 8,207 51.91
tors, only Cements achieved positive return, +2.2%WoW while OMCs and E&Ps were the major
Last week 8,317 52.27
losers, down 4.0%WoW and 2.8%WoW respectively. Amongst other sectors, Automobile Parts and
Refineries closed the week with a gain of 8.8%WoW and 2.8%WoW respectively while Glass &
Avg. Da ily Turnove r ('mn sha re s) Ceramics was down 16.7%WoW. Flow-wise, foreigners turned net buyers, with a net buy of
This week 589.35 US$0.28mn, together with brokers (net sell: US$10.73mn) which was mainly absorbed by Insur-
Last week ance (net buy: US$4.72mn) and Individuals (net buy: US$6.66mn). Within individual stocks, top
595.02
performers include, i) BNWM (+8.9%WoW), ii) ILP (+7.5%WoW), iii) LUCK (+6.4%WoW), iv) DCR
Change - 1.0%
(+4.9%WoW), and v) FML (+4.5%WoW), while laggards were, i) GATI (down 11.3%WoW), ii) NBP
(down 8.9%WoW), iii) NML (down 8.3%WoW), iv) FFBL (down 8.3%WoW), and v) HASCOL (down
8.0%WoW).
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Symbol Volume (mn) Index & Volume Chart KSE100 Gainers & Losers
BYCO : 325.00 (Shrs'000) (Index) 13.0%
HUMNL : 207.79 800,000
45,890 45,729 45,966
46,100
700,000
46,000 7.0%
TRG : 190.35 45,363
45,900
600,000 45,865 45,800
1.0%
WTL : 164.21 500,000 45,700
45,600
400,000
MDTL : 123.07 45,500 -5.0%
300,000 45,400
200,000 45,300
(share mn) -11.0%
(Index) 45,200
100,000
1,400 49,000 45,100
- 45,000 -17.0%
1,200 46,000
NML
BNWM

NBP
ILP

GATI
HASCOl

FFBL
LUCK

DCR

FML

22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb

1,000 43,000
Read y Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)
40,000
800
37,000
600 Source: PSX & AKD Research
34,000
400
200
31,000
28,000
Outlook
0 25,000
With the result season in the rearview, market is expected to look forward to Senate elections and
Jun-20

Jan-21
May-20

Oct-20
Apr-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Nov-20
Mar-20
Feb-20

Feb-21

macro developments (Feb’21 inflation estimated to stand at 8.7%YoY). Moreover, investors are
Volume in million (LHS) KSE-100 Index likely to focus on commodity upcycle related gainers and upbeat demand particularly in Cyclicals
(Cements, Steels, and Autos). As such, we continue to like LUCK, MLCF, and DGKC within our uni-
Source: PSX & AKD Research verse while an eye should also be kept on banks where higher inflation could pop up expectation
of an eventual rate hike.

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies
Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD Securities Copyright©2020 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
TREC Holder & Registered Broker Find AKD research on Bloomberg for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
Pakistan Stock Exchange
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and Reuters Knowledge such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
REP-019 or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net
 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

This Week’s Daily Reports

Feb 26, 2021
46,330
46,260 FATF: In the grey list—for now!, (AKD Daily, Feb 26, 2021)
46,190
46,120  In its latest Feb’21 plenary review, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has expectedly re-
46,050 tained Pakistan in its ‘grey list’ – officially known as ‘Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring’,
45,980
while acknowledging the significant progress made on the entire action plan.
45,910
45,840  Pakistan is now largely complaint on 24 out of 27 items of the action plan (vs. 21/14/5 in Oc-
45,770
45,700
t’20/Feb’20/Oct’19). It needs to show compliance on the remaining 3 counts by Jun’21 to com-
plete the FATF action plan which are mostly related to the implementation of the amended
9:40
9:16

10:03
10:26
10:50
11:13
11:36
12:00
12:23
12:46
13:10
13:33
13:56
14:20
14:43
15:06
15:30
15:53
16:16

regulations.
 The overall tone of the statement was encouraging, with the global body recognizing notable
Feb 25, 2021
progress made so far – a continuation of the previous statement for this round of consultation.
46,050
46,000 With ~89% compliance achieved against the action plan, the question now turns to when Paki-
45,950 stan would exit the grey list where we believe graduation from grey list would be likely in Oc-
45,900 t’21 (post on-site testing) assuming Pakistan achieves compliance over the remaining 3 counts.
45,850
45,800  While the FATF’s decision of keeping Pakistan in the grey list was widely expected, the market
45,750
should positively react to formal acknowledgment of the progress made so far and improving
45,700
45,650
diplomatic relations with neighboring India, which would make the process of exiting the ‘grey
45,600 list’ rather smooth.
10:18
10:42
11:05
11:28
11:52
12:15
12:38
13:02
13:25
13:48
14:12
14:35
14:58
15:22
9:32
9:55

Pakistan Economy: Feb’21 inflation to reach 8.7%YoY, (AKD Daily, Feb 25, 2021)
 Feb’21 inflation is likely to stand at 8.7% vs. 5.7% in Jan’21, predominantly due to resurging
Feb 24, 2021 food prices (monthly food inflation to turn slightly positive after recording two consecutive
46,000
monthly declines, +0.96%MoM) and revision in electricity tariffs (PkR1.95/unit hike in base
45,900
45,800 tariff and PkR1.54/unit fuel price adjustment).
45,700
45,600  Inflation for the next 4 months is likely to average at 10.2%YoY, following surging commodity
45,500 prices (TRJ index +36.7%FYTD), Govt. likely allowing pending tariff adjustments (PkR1.35/unit
45,400
45,300
base tariff adjustment remains), and approaching Ramadan season.
45,200
45,100  In the medium run, inflationary pressures are likely to further jack-up with the IMF setting
45,000 Govt’s tax revenue target at PkR5.9trn for FY22 vs. PkR4.7trn in FY21, which should prompt
10:18
10:41
11:05
11:28
11:51
12:15
12:38
13:01
13:25
13:48
14:11
14:35
14:58
15:21
9:31
9:55

SBP to reverse monetary policy course. That said, in the near term we expect SBP to hold inter-
est rates stable despite high inflationary readings, taking solace in stable external account out-
Feb 23, 2021 look.
46,160  Resumption of IMF program, unlocking bilateral/multilateral flows, and potential positive de-
46,090
velopments under FATF (acknowledged by IMF, decision scheduled today) is likely to extend
46,020
the current market’s bull run. In this backdrop, structural theme remains intact where we
45,950

45,880
continue to advocate for Cements, Steel, Power and OMCs (PSO).
45,810 Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea offtake up due to low base effect, (AKD Daily, Feb 24, 2021)
45,740

45,670
 As per the NFDC data released, urea offtake increased 148% YoY to 648K tons (low base
45,600 effect), but posted a decline of 26% MoM in Jan’21. Company wise, FFC and EFERT witnessed
10:20
10:45
11:09
11:34
11:58
12:23
12:47
13:12
13:36
14:01
14:25
14:50
15:14
9:31
9:56

an uptick of 2.01xYoY and 3.66xYoY, respectively. The urea inventory build-up witnessed in
previous months continue to taper off to ~99K tons, vs. last 3 months average of ~550K tons.
 DAP offtake, on the other hand, also posted incline on YoY basis, but declined by a more signifi-
Feb 22, 2021 cant 60% MoM to 82K tons in Jan’21. Sequential decline can be attributed to seasonality factor
46,500 as well as unavailability of DAP in international markets and low local inventory. FFBL’s offtake
46,400 declined 79%MoM due to annual plant maintenance. Meanwhile, EFERT was the only player
46,300 posting increase in DAP offtake on both MoM and YoY basis.
46,200
46,100  Local DAP prices have increased by ~PkR1,000/bag CYTD, where supply side shock may sustain
46,000 DAP prices at these levels in 1HCY20, in our view. Local urea prices are also on a similar trajec-
45,900 tory (up c. PkR75/bag FYTD) and can increase further to pass on the adverse impact of possible
45,800 budgetary measure w.r.t income tax (PkR45-50/bag for EFERT and FFC on annual basis).
45,700
45,600  Amid this backdrop, we continue to like FFC with sufficient EBITDA generation to continue
10:20
10:45
11:09
11:34
11:58
12:23
12:47
13:12
13:36
14:01
14:25
14:50
15:14
9:31
9:56

dividend yield north of 10%. Meanwhile, attractive payout scenario from EFERT is marred by
potential end of concessionary gas agreement in Jul’21, which could lead to negative earnings
Source: PSX & AKD Research

2
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

This Week’s Daily Reports

impact of ~PkR1.5/sh for CY21 and ~PkR3.0/sh CY22F onwards.
Pakistan OMCs: Throughput reflecting decreased grey product, (AKD Daily, Feb 23, 2021)
 Increase in volumes directly lifted throughput levels, with 4QCY20 retail volumes at 4.7mn
tons, up 12%YoY largely due to a 15%YoY increase in HSD while sequential increase in retail
fuels’ volume stood at 12% as economic activity remained upbeat while.
 Company-wise, HASCOL/SHEL/APL/PSO delivered throughput levels of 521k/648k/
515k/635k ltrs/outlet, moving -25%/+16%/-19%/+17%YoY and +7%/+16%/+10%/+7%QoQ
taking total average industry throughput +7%YoY/+6%QoQ to 663k ltrs/outlet.
 Difference between throughput level of HSD and MS standing 102k ltrs/pump for 4QCY20
against 164k ltrs/pump for 3QCY20 again points to the significant decrease in smuggling
where moving forward, government’s continued drive against influx of grey product will
further improve HSD offtake.
 PSO (TP: PkR293.1/sh, 21% upside) is our top pick from the sector where medium term de-
velopments include clearance of circular debt and shift in cash profile of cash flows due to
increased share of retail fuels while focus on improving storage infrastructure will result in
company sustaining the recently gained market share.
NBP: CY20 Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Feb 22, 2021)
 NBP 4QCY20 earnings expected at PkR2.3/sh potentially dragged by provision against HR
related contingency: National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) is scheduled to announce its CY20
results on Feb 24th 2021 where earnings for full year are likely to be recorded at PkR31.1bn
(EPS: PkR14.6) compared to PkR16.6bn (EPS: PkR7.8) in the same period last year. For
4QCY20, NPAT is expected at PkR4.9bn (EPS: PkR2.3), down 55.1%QoQ owing to lagged
impact of interest rates on asset yields (Unrealized gains on TBILLs/PIBs stood at PkR3.2bn/
PkR5bn as of Sep’20 vs. PkR12.0bn/PkR15.4bn as of Jun’20 in AFS category). Consequently,
NIMs are expected to decline to 4.73% compared to 5.30% in the previous quarter. Non-
funded income is likely to be +58.6%QoQ to PkR15.5bn owing to seasonal factors pulling up
fee income (+48.0%QoQ) and possible capital gains (+48.6%QoQ) to counter the impact
from impact of potential provision against certain HR related case. To highlight, the bank in
4QCY19 recorded a provision against HR related contingency to the tune of ~PkR8-10bn
however, recent judgment which came against the bank puts total contingency related ex-
pense to PkR16bn (one-time cost). We expect the bank to record the remaining provision in
4QCY20, taking benefit of strong CY20 profitability, which would along with other seasonal
factors could pull administrative cost +65.0%QoQ.

3
 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

Major World Indices’ Performance

Country Bloomberg Code 26-Feb-21 19-Feb-21 WoW FYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 45,865 46,228 -0.78% 33.2%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 7,476 7,798 -4.12% 45.2%
Thailand SET Index 1,497 1,501 -0.25% 11.8%
Indonesia JCI Index 6,242 6,232 0.16% 27.2%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,578 1,585 -0.45% 5.1%
Philippines PCOMP Index 6,795 6,926 -1.90% 9.5%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 1,168 1,174 -0.43% 41.6%
Hong Kong HSI Index 28,980 30,645 -5.43% 18.6%
Singapore FSSTI Index 2,949 2,881 2.37% 13.9%
Brazil IBX Index 48,085 50,581 -4.93% 19.6%
India SENSEX Index 49,100 50,890 -3.52% 40.6%
China SHCOMP Index 3,509 3,696 -5.06% 17.6%
S&P SPX Index 3,829 3,907 -1.98% 23.5%
DJIA INDU Index 31,402 31,494 -0.29% 21.7%
NASDAQ Composite CCMP Index 13,119 13,874 -5.44% 30.4%
UK UKX Index 6,552 6,624 -1.09% 6.2%
Germany DAX Index 13,813 13,993 -1.29% 12.2%
Qatar DSM Index 10,121 10,273 -1.49% 12.5%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 5,628 5,643 -0.26% 31.3%
Dubai DFMGI Index 2,527 2,576 -1.90% 22.4%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,633 6,633 0.00% 0.0%
Oman MSM30 Index 3,602 3,566 1.02% 2.4%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 9,195 9,024 1.89% 27.3%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,384 1,430 -3.23% 39.1%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 586 590 -0.64% 22.0%
Source: Bloomberg
International Major Currencies
PkR/US$ Trend SPOT 19-Feb-21 12-Feb-21 Chg +/- WoW FYTD
174.0 Dollar Index 90.279 90.480 -0.201 -0.22% -7.30%

169.0 USD/PkR 159.051 158.799 0.252 0.16% -5.27%

USD/JPY 105.340 104.940 0.400 0.38% -2.40%
164.0
EUR/USD 1.214 1.212 0.002 0.17% 8.07%
159.0
GBP/USD 1.400 1.385 0.015 1.08% 12.89%
154.0
AUD/USD 0.786 0.776 0.010 1.28% 13.86%
149.0 NZD/USD 0.729 0.722 0.007 0.93% 12.95%
Jun-20

Jan-21
May-20

Jul-20

Oct-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Mar-20
Feb-20

Feb-21

CHF/USD 0.894 0.892 0.002 0.25% -5.62%

CAD/USD 1.262 1.270 -0.008 -0.63% -7.07%
Source: Bloomberg USD/KRW 1,106 1,107 -1.000 -0.09% -8.07%
CNY/USD 6.454 6.458 -0.005 -0.07% -8.64%
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities
TRJ-CRB Index
SPOT Units 19-Feb-21 12-Feb-21 WoW FYTD
200
190 TRJ-CRB Points 188.6701 185.2884 1.83% 36.75%
180
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 59.39 59.47 -0.13% 51.24%
170
160
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 62.49 62.85 -0.57% 52.82%
150 N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 16.353 6.608 147.47% 855.20%
140
Cotton USd/Pound 95.1 93 2.26% 39.96%
130
120 Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1773.37 1824.23 -2.79% -0.43%
110 Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 27.071 27.36 -1.06% 48.68%
100
Copper US$/MT 8573.25 8352.25 2.65% 42.78%
Aug-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Jan-21
Mar-20

Oct-20
Apr-20

May-20
Feb-20

Feb-21

Platinum US$/Oz 1273.85 1256.38 1.39% 53.59%

Source: Bloomberg
Coal US$/MT 88.5 88.9 -0.45% 61.79%
Source: Bloomberg
4
 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank

Average PIB and E/Y differential Advance to Decline Ratio

25.0%
2.40
23.0%
21.0% 2.10
19.0%
17.0% 1.80
15.0%
1.50
13.0%
11.0%
1.20
9.0%
7.0% 0.90
5.0%
Nov-20

Dec-20
Aug-20

Sep-20
Feb-20

Feb-21
Mar-20

Jul-20
May-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

0.60

Dec-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Feb-20

Feb-21
Jul-20
May-20

Jun-20

Jan-21
Earning Yield PIB Yield

FIPI Flows for the week LIPI Flows for the week
(US$'000) 8.00 Ind., 6.66
5,000 6.00 Ins , 4.72
4,000 3,701 4.00 Co., 2.38Ba nk/DFI,
1.88
3,000 2.00
2,000 -
NBFC, (0.02) Others ,
1,000 576 (2.00) (0.24)
97
- (4.00)
(1,000) (553)
(6.00) M.Funds,
(4.93)
(2,000) (8.00)
(3,000) (10.00)
(4,000) (3,545) Prop. Tra di ng
(12.00)
22-Feb-21 23-Feb-21 24-Feb-21 25-Feb-21 26-Feb-21 , (10.73)

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

50%
KSE 100 MSCI EM MSCI FM
0.1 40%

30%
0.0
20%
-0.1 10%

-0.2 0%

-10%
-0.3
-20%

-0.4 -30%
Nov-20
Feb-20

Sep-20

Feb-21
May-20

Oct-20
Aug-20
Mar-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Dec-20
Apr-20

Jan-21

-40%
Oct-20
Sep -20
Aug -20

Nov-20

Dec-20
May-20

Jul-20
Jun-20
Feb-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Mar-20

KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe

5
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

26-Feb-20 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
EPS chg (%) (15.24) 11.08 18.79 15.68 8.91
EPS chg (%) ex-E&P (24.94) 6.38 (0.50) 17.08 13.81
Book Value per Share (PkR) 41.64 44.35 49.14 53.38 57.53
Payout (%) 55.32 49.54 42.51 29.99 41.36
Valuations
Price to Earnings (x) 9.81 8.88 7.91 6.83 6.87
PER (Ex-Banks & E&Ps) (x) 10.63 9.80 10.82 10.99 8.26
Price to Book (x) 1.34 1.27 1.15 1.45 1.31
Price to CF (x) 13.54 9.99 13.74 11.06 6.90
Earnings Yield (%) 10.19 11.26 12.64 14.64 14.56
Dividend Yield (%) 6.23 5.76 5.81 5.28 7.05
EV / EBITDA (x) 6.64 6.59 5.72 4.83 4.91
Profitability
Return on Equity (%) 13.79 14.38 15.42 18.40 17.70
Return on Assets (%) 2.25 2.28 2.45 2.09 2.04
Chg in Sales (%) 16.05 17.88 21.76 (1.39) (4.05)
Gross Margin (%) 35.96 35.12 34.06 34.08 36.41
Operating Margin (%) 24.85 24.38 24.00 23.06 24.42
Net Margin (%) 11.24 10.59 10.34 9.64 10.64

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2021

(x)
7.6

6.3

4.9

3.5
Dec-11

Feb-21
Oct-19
Mar-13

Jun-18
Mar-17
Nov-15
Jan-08

Aug-10
Apr-09

Jul-14

Market P/BVS Chart 2021

(x)
1.9

1.5

1.0

0.5
Dec-11

Oct-19

Feb-21
Jun-18
Mar-13

Mar-17
Nov-15
Apr-09

Jul-14
Jan-08

Aug-10

Source: AKD Research

6
 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations

Stocks Symbol Price TP Stance EPS P/E P/B DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 19 20A/F 21F 19 20A/F 21F 19 20A/F 21F 19 20A/F 21F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,114.2 1,500.0 Buy 174.5 64.7 106.3 6.4 17.2 10.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 9.9 2.7 5.4
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 265.7 180.0 Sell (35.4) (24.0) (1.6) n.a n.a n.a 0.8 0.9 0.9 - - -
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 136.2 209.7 Buy 3.7 (4.9) 7.6 37.1 n.a 17.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 - 0.6
Lucky Cement LUCK 884.7 1,289.2 Buy 32.4 10.3 30.5 27.3 85.6 29.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 0.7 - 0.7
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 46.7 80.1 Buy 1.3 (4.4) 3.9 35.0 n.a 12.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 - - -
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.8 39.1 Buy 2.0 (0.04) 2.2 12.1 n.a 11.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 5.5 - 5.2
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 134.4 138.0 Sell 3.5 (0.9) 3.6 38.6 n.a 37.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 - - -
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 177.5 172.0 Sell 9.1 (9.7) 12.8 19.6 n.a 13.8 2.9 3.4 2.7 0.5 - 0.8
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 44.8 58.0 Buy 0.1 (3.8) 2.7 405.2 n.a 16.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 - - -
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 303.0 320.0 Buy 28.7 43.6 46.6 10.6 7.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 7.9 8.6 9.9
Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 65.2 59.0 Sell 12.8 13.6 8.9 5.1 4.8 7.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 19.9 20.0 12.3
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 24.4 25.7 Sell (6.3) 2.3 3.3 n.a 10.4 7.3 3.3 1.6 1.3 - - -
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 110.5 131.0 Buy 13.4 16.4 16.1 8.2 6.8 6.9 4.0 3.5 3.1 9.8 10.1 10.9
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.4 39.0 Buy 5.8 6.0 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 7.4 8.3 6.5
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 104.7 185.0 Buy 27.5 23.3 22.1 3.8 4.5 4.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 10.5 6.9 7.2
Pak Oilfields POL 400.2 406.0 Neutral 57.1 56.7 56.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 12.5 12.5 12.2
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 90.4 155.0 Buy 21.9 18.2 18.7 4.1 5.0 4.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 - - 4.4
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 10.7 UR UR - - - - - - - - - - - -
Attock Petroleum APL 337.6 434.3 Buy 39.8 10.1 37.9 8.5 33.3 8.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 5.9 2.7 7.9
Pakistan State Oil PSO 236.6 293.1 Buy 22.5 (13.8) 30.8 10.5 n.a 7.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 4.2 - 5.3
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 85.4 168.0 Buy 9.4 20.1 21.0 9.1 4.3 4.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 11.7 - 8.7
K-Electric Co. KEL 4.2 UR UR - - - - - - - - - - - -
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 37.6 UR UR - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Electron Ltd PAEL 38.2 48.1 Buy 1.8 0.1 2.7 21.6 424.3 13.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - 3.1
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 110.1 132.0 Buy 16.7 10.0 11.0 6.6 11.0 10.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 3.6 3.6 3.0
Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 49.4 55.7 Buy 13.2 1.1 7.1 3.7 44.7 7.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 5.1 2.0 5.6
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 80.5 109.8 Buy 12.7 15.1 11.7 6.4 5.3 6.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 9.9 11.2 11.2
Bank Al Habib BAHL 70.6 91.5 Buy 10.1 16.2 14.3 7.0 4.4 4.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 5.0 6.4 8.5
Bank AlFalah BAFL 33.4 51.9 Buy 7.4 6.1 7.1 4.5 5.5 4.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 12.0 12.0 12.0
Habib Bank Limited HBL 123.7 174.6 Buy 10.5 21.1 24.7 11.8 5.9 5.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 4.0 3.4 6.5
Habib Metropolitn Bank HMB 37.4 46.1 Buy 6.6 11.5 8.9 5.6 3.2 4.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 5.9 12.0 9.4
MCB Bank Limited MCB 183.1 223.4 Buy 20.1 24.8 24.6 9.1 7.4 7.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 9.3 10.9 10.9
Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 108.6 137.0 Buy 11.0 15.8 16.6 9.9 6.9 6.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 4.6 5.5 7.4
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 35.9 50.4 Buy 7.8 16.8 13.4 4.6 2.1 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 - - -
United Bank Ltd UBL 127.5 142.5 Buy 15.6 16.5 18.4 8.2 7.7 6.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 9.4 9.4 9.4
Bank of Punjab BOP 9.2 13.9 Buy 3.1 2.6 1.6 3.0 3.6 5.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 8.2 8.2 8.2

UR Under Review Source: AKD Research

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 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance

Stocks Symbol Price Absolute Performance (%) 1 Year 1 Year
26-Feb-21 1M 3M 6M 12M FYTD High Low
KSE-100 Index 45,865.02 -0.9 11.8 12.2 19.6 33.2 46,933.6 27,228.8

Automobile and Parts

Indus Motors INDU 1,114.21 -5.8 -3.0 -14.9 14.2 12.0 1429.98 700.38
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 265.70 23.2 41.5 8.1 29.3 64.2 287.18 124.21
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 136.19 19.7 28.8 24.5 107.0 59.6 141.48 50.05
Lucky Cement LUCK 884.73 24.5 34.4 45.6 87.7 91.7 884.73 310.30
Maple Leaf Cement MLCF 46.70 4.1 18.0 29.0 106.5 79.8 48.23 16.74
Fauji Cement Company FCCL 24.79 11.2 18.5 15.5 63.3 46.9 27.21 11.68
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 134.35 13.4 48.7 47.5 394.8 113.1 142.21 22.81
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 177.53 17.3 33.1 33.3 235.0 103.7 183.48 45.52
Engineering
Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 44.78 -11.0 11.2 -10.3 49.6 37.2 53.46 21.28
Fertilizers
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 65.16 -0.4 6.5 4.8 1.0 8.1 68.45 50.72
Engro Chemical ENGRO 302.97 -2.3 -2.2 1.0 0.2 3.4 330.26 237.65
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.41 -4.1 1.2 2.0 15.3 6.3 31.88 20.82
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 24.41 -12.4 19.2 29.9 41.0 52.9 28.78 11.79
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 110.45 -1.6 5.2 2.1 6.7 0.4 114.54 82.71
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Elektron Limited PAEL 38.16 -5.4 16.3 9.0 68.6 66.4 42.38 16.62
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development OGDC 104.72 -3.3 3.4 -9.5 -15.4 -3.9 125.76 75.01
Pak Oilfields POL 400.19 -3.3 0.6 -8.4 2.3 14.1 437.08 241.11
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 90.42 -3.8 -2.0 -10.1 -23.2 4.2 119.09 69.13
Pakistan State Oil PSO 236.63 -2.8 21.9 23.6 39.8 49.6 259.32 113.98
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 337.58 -8.9 3.4 -4.7 3.0 10.6 385.00 211.87
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 10.74 -27.3 -25.1 -36.0 -46.8 -21.0 23.15 10.65
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 85.42 -1.6 7.2 2.2 -6.1 17.8 93.77 57.40
K-Electric Limited KEL 4.18 1.7 11.5 10.0 8.6 38.9 4.67 2.65
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 37.58 -9.1 32.0 25.7 50.4 86.5 44.66 15.00
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 49.35 -0.6 26.5 18.2 30.0 52.1 54.06 23.78
Nishat Mills NML 110.06 -3.7 20.4 0.5 7.8 41.1 123.09 54.07
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 80.52 -6.1 -5.1 -6.1 -12.6 5.1 95.00 66.82
Bank AlHabib Limited BAHL 70.56 -10.8 3.7 7.2 -10.2 33.9 79.52 50.98
Bank AlFalah BAFL 33.41 -9.1 -4.7 -4.7 -29.4 -0.5 48.48 28.79
Habib Bank Limited HBL 123.66 -12.3 -4.7 -8.2 -21.6 27.7 160.11 94.78
Bank of Punjab BOP 9.16 -4.7 3.5 -10.8 -26.4 9.0 12.39 7.01
Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 37.36 -6.6 1.2 6.0 -5.2 34.3 40.67 27.30
MCB Bank Limited MCB 183.10 -7.0 4.3 4.5 -7.3 13.0 204.05 132.89
Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 108.57 -1.7 15.1 24.0 11.6 57.7 115.14 55.66
National Bank of NBP 35.87 -15.0 -10.0 -1.3 -14.6 29.7 43.80 25.53
United Bank Ltd UBL 127.51 -7.1 6.1 1.9 -20.0 23.4 170.25 89.44
Source: PSX & AKD Research

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 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data Units Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Monetary Rates
T-Bills - 3M % 13.5 13.40 11.29 n.a 8.10 7.59 n.a 6.99 n.a 7.17 7.15 7.14 n.a
T-Bills-6M % 13.5 13.50 13.20 n.a 7.08 7.37 n.a 7.18 n.a 7.20 7.20 7.18 n.a
T-Bills-12M % 13.2 13.60 13.30 n.a 7.74 7.30 n.a 7.15 n.a n.a 7.29 7.29 n.a
PIB10Y % 11 11.20 10.20 8.50 8.30 8.60 8.80 9.40 9.60 10.00 9.90 10.00 10.05
KIBOR6M % 11.2 13.20 12.30 12.10 7.80 7.60 6.80 7.20 7.30 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.10
Discount rate % 13.8 13.80 12.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
Policy rate % 13.3 13.30 11.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Inflation
National CPI Inflation % 14.60 12.00 10.20 8.50 8.20 8.60 9.30 8.20 9.00 8.90 8.30 8.00 5.7

Core inflation (Urban) % 7.90 8.00 7.40 7.70 7.30 7.60 7.80 7.10 7.70 7.30 7.00 7.00 5

Core inflation (Rural) % 9.00 9.40 9.40 9.80 9.70 10.00 11.50 9.90 11.10 11.30 10.50 9.50 6.6

Food inflation (Urban) % 19.50 15.20 13.00 10.40 10.60 12.90 15.10 11.30 12.40 13.90 13.00 12.60 7.3

Food inflation (Rural) % 23.80 19.70 15.50 12.90 13.70 15.20 17.80 13.50 15.80 17.70 16.10 13.40 7.2
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$(mn) 1,970 2,140 1,814 957 1,396 1,599 2,001 1,584 1,889 2,081 2,171 2,366 2,146

Import (PBS) US$(mn) 4,037 4,185 3,316 3,088 2,863 3,719 3,687 3,324 4,321 3,820 4,229 4,986 4,820

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$(mn) (2,067) (2,045) (1,502) (2,131) (1,467) (2,120) (1,686) (1,740) (2,432) (1,739) (2,058) (2,620) (2,674)

Export (SBP) 2,053 2,099 1,697 1,372 1,185 1,562 1,977 1,628 2,027 1,926 2,308 2,204 2,042

Import (SBP) 3,912 3,958 3,216 3,198 2,660 3,304 3,399 3,248 4,120 3,543 4,260 4,784 4,419

Trade Deficit (SBP) (1,859) (1,859) (1,519) (1,826) (1,475) (1,742) (1,422) (1,620) (2,093) (1,617) (1,952) (2,580) (2,377)

1,825.0
Home Remittances US$(mn) 1,907 1,894 1,790 1,873 2,466 2,768 2,095 2,284 2,284 2,339 2,437 2,274
0

Current Account US$(mn) (534) -210 -9 -530 344 -96 508 211 73 415 447 -652 -229
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR(bn) 14,673 14,815 15,126 14,476 15,481 16,229 16,122 16,327 16,886 16,664 16,841 17,876 17,086
Advances PkR(bn) 8,164 8,212 8,259 8,217 8,357 8,202 8,120 8,053 8,094 8,116 8,166 8,497 8,467
Investments PkR(bn) 8,366 8,725 9,297 9,794 10,382 10,681 10,809 10,869 11,090 10,942 11,071 11,552 11,421
W.A.lending rate % 13.35 13.23 13.01 11.18 10.75 10.08 8.94 8.72 8.26 9.09 8.83 8.64 8.59
W.A. deposit rate % 6.95 7 6.91 6 5.11 4.31 3.94 3.84 3.77 3.74 3.64 3.61 3.58

Spread rate % 6.40 6.23 6.10 5.18 5.64 5.77 5.00 4.88 4.49 5.35 5.19 5.03 5.01

Public Finance
Tax collection PkR(bn) 318.1 326.3 322.0 243 229.3 464 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR(bn) 112.6 107.7 137.1 82.7 84.7 213.4 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR(bn) 205.5 218.5 184.9 160.2 144.6 250.6 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$(mn) 18,645 18,881 17,098 18,755 16,943 18,886 19,599 19,908 19,385 19,399 20,267 n.a n.a

USD PkR-Interbank PkR/USD 154.74 154.34 159.02 164.43 160.58 165.53 166.87 167.95 166.02 162.82 159.37 160.28 160.31

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

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 AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
26 February 2021 Pakistan Weekly Update

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views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Usman Zahid +92 111 253 111 (693) usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net Executive Director Research
Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) ali.poonawala@akdsecurities.net E&Ps, Cable & Electrical & Automobiles
Hamza Kamal +92 111 253 111 (634) Hamza.kamal@akdsecurities.net Commercial Banks, Economy
Shahrukh Saleem +92 111 253 111 (685) shahrukh.saleem@akdsecurities.net Cement & OMCs Sector
AIlia Naeem +92 111 253 111 (603) ailia.naeem@akdsecurities.net Fertilizer & Power Sector
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net Technical Analysis
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net Research Production
Faisal Tufail +92 111 253 111 (647) faisal.tufail@akdsecurities.net Research Production
Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net Library Operations

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