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Coastal Tourism Management System Modeling

P. Scouts, Thousand Islands

Kohar sulistyadi11), Nugroho B Sukamdani22),

1 Usahid teaching staff jakarta,
2 Usahid . graduate school teaching staff
1ksulistyadi@gmail.com

2 nugroho.budisatrio@gmail.com

Abstract - In general, tourism activities are sought to increase the country's foreign exchange, provide business
opportunities, create jobs and reduce unemployment. Coastal tourism is part of tourism activities related to the beauty
of the beach panorama, sports tourism, and environmental sustainability. In the industrial era 4.0 has happenedscience
and technology change known as the rapid disruptive movement of technology, causing many large companies to go
bankrupt and changing the behavior patterns of the current millennial generation. Many fields, including tourism, which
have been carried out by humans have been replaced by technology, robots or artificial intelligence. The development of
tourist areas requires a medium to long-term strategic study and involves elements of investors, transportation facilities,
hotels, communications and so on. Considering the problems faced are so complex, dynamically changing all the time
and faced with uncertainty (probabilistic), Therefore, in reviewing the development of an integrated ecotourism
management model (Bangmola Ecotourism Coastal) in the Thousand Islands, a systems approach is carried out that is
able to provide benefits and satisfaction of coastal tourism stakeholders. The purpose of this research is focused on
developing an integrated coastal tourism management model (Bangmola Ecotourism Coastal) in the Thousand Islands
which is intended for ecotourism management which consists of several sub-models, namely: 1). Prediction of tourist
visits based on Forecasting, 2) Focus Group Discussion on coastal tourism actors based on the MAAMS method,
Stakeholder actors related to coastal tourism based on Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) Methods, 3). The results
of the discussion can be concluded, that: 1) there are tourist visits that tend to continue to increase,

Keywords: System Modeling, Coastal Tourism

PRELIMINARY throw away rubbish, so that cause

damage environment as mangrove forest,
1.1. Background of the problem
disruption of the ecosystem of turtles, bondol eagles, stingrays
Tourism has become one of the country's potential and sharks
foreign exchange earners after oil and gas. The current
To overcome this problem, a systems
condition of the management of the tourism sector has
approach is carried out which is supported by a
not been carried out optimally so that the Government's
decision support system - decision support
programWonderful Indonesia Digital Tourism (WIDT) 4.0
system(SPK) so that errors at each stage of
has not yet reached the target of 20 million tourists
decision making are easy to trace.
This research focuses on several problems,
The concrete form of the Ministry of Tourism
namely: 1). Prediction model of tourist visits, 2)
is conveyed in transparent, comprehensive, and
Focus Group Discussion (FGD) model based on
accountable information about the performance of
the MAAMS method, and 3) identifying elements
the Ministry of Tourism (2018) with priority
of actors / institutions of ecotourism
programs to be implemented in 2019. Menpar Arief
management systems carried out based on
Yahya launched a 2019 strategic program, namely
technicalInterpretative Structure Modeling/ISM (
the development of 10 Priority Tourism
Sulistyadi,et al. 2008).
Destinations (DPP) including the Thousand Islands
The Minister of Tourism is targeting tourism
foreign exchange of 20 billion US dollars and 20 million
foreign tourists visiting Indonesia. On the other hand, the
1.2. Research purposes
fundamental weaknesses in the development of tourism
management, especially ecotourism are: awareness of the Research purposes emphasized for
community around ecotourism and ecotourism of the get modeling management system
Thousand Islands which
transparent coastal ecotourism, so that each
stage of decision-making is easy to trace.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Historically, Scout Island was formerly called
Eagle Island, because according to the residents of
Elang Island there used to be many types of bondol
eagles in Scout Island, then many people had
adventures on this island such as camping activities
and gradually Eagle Island changed its name to P.
Scouts. Scouts are loved by some nature lovers who
are quite unique, natural and cool to make P. Scouts
attractive.
The condition of Scout Island which is close to
the capital city of DKI Jakarta and the distance which is
only 1 hour away by ship makes it the target of
recreation and a place to unwind for tourists. Tourist
visits in semester 1 of 2018 were recorded as 452,434
people, while in semester 1 of 2017
395,549 people. There was an increase of 14.4% compared to
the previous year, as well as the area of P Scouts which was
only 16.73 ha, this condition needs to be watched out asearly
warning for the increase in waste and environmental
damage, the degradation of flora and fauna biota, as well as
the manager trying to find efforts to handle environmental
conservation.
To get a model that can help rational
decisions based on real conditions, a systems
approach is needed. The system approach is a
solution to problems ranging from identifying
a number of needs to getting an operation
from the system that is considered effective.
To design the development of an integrated
ecotourism management system model used (Bangmola
Coastal Ecotourism) which was determined with the
selected location P. Pramuka, Seribu Islands, with the
criteria of completeness of ecotourism and the
application of ongoing ecotourism management but did
not provide benefits for all ecotourism actors, which was
appropriate based on tourist arrivals and the carrying
capacity of the area as well as the suitability of the
tourism offered.
The model is a tool for simplification
and analysis of complex situations or systems.
Through this model, complex situations or
systems can be simplified without having to
eliminate essential problems in order to get
the final result of understanding. While the
creation and use of models can provide a
management framework for decision making
On the same hand, Turban, (1995),
explains that the model is a simplification tool in
analyzing situations in complex systems, the
use of models in complex situations should be
simplified without losing some essential things
in order to facilitate understanding.
Some of Sulistyadi's predecessor researchers, K
(2013), designed the development of the Gedong
Songo Temple ecotourism system in Semarang
Regency which is able to provide benefits to all
tourism actors (Local Government, Antiquities
Service, Gedong Songo Temple Management,
Restaurants, Horse Pullers, Tourists, Tour operators
, Travel agent).
Sulistyadi. K, Sukamdani, NB, and Pardede N, 2017,
who directedFocus Group Discussion (FGD) on solutions
and solving problems of strengthening coastal
ecotourism which is applied as sustainable ecotourism
according to the carrying capacity of the area and the
suitability of coastal tourism
The Root Problem Analysis and Solutions
(MAAMS) method was initially encouraged to ask
“what are the causes and how to solve the causes
which are two different factual and conceptual
inspirations.
For a factual understanding of the whole social
problem, which is able to provide answers
satisfactorily or convincingly to the root of the problem
(social politics and public policy, yourself), so it is
necessary to have a deeper understanding in outlining
different interests/inspirations.
For that we need a conceptual approach but
there is no method that provides or describes it to a
more concrete level. The Root Problem Analysis and
Solution (MAAMS) method explains in the following
ways:
1. explore the problem through Focus
Group Discussion (FGD, next
2. to group problems with affinity
diagrams and
3. apply root cause analysis methods and
find the best alternative solutions
4. provide direction and program
development that is able to provide
benefits to all parties (stakeholders)
Sulistyadi. K, 2006, explains the interrelationships of the
actors involved in the modeling of the Pulp Industry
planning system capable of providing benefits to
all parties (stakeholders) through technique Interpretative
Structural Modeling (ISM), and Sulistyadi. K,et.al, 2009,
have implemented the marketing strategy of Mekarsari
Tourism Park agro-tourism and have benefited
together on each stakeholders in agro-tourism 4) Autonomic (weak driver-weak dependent
management. variables). The sub-elements that are included in
this sector have a low driving force for the success
The application of ISM techniques is divided into two
of the program and their dependence on the
parts, namely: (1) hierarchical arrangement and (2) sub-
program is also low.
element classification. The ISM technique identifies the
structure within a system and makes the system effective
and helps the decision-making process.
III. RESEARCH METHODS
The expert opinion assessment data on the elements is
To get a model that can help rational
used based on the values of V, A, X and O. The expert
decisions based on real conditions, a systems
values are then carried out by the matrix process
approach is needed. The system approach is a
reachibility. If the matrix is not consistent, then the
solution to problems ranging from identifying
matrix is createdrevision. The contextual relationship of
a number of needs to getting an operation
the pairwise comparison matrix is compiledstructural
from the system that is considered effective.
self-interaction matrix (SSIM).SSIM preparation
using the symbols V, A, X, and O.
To design a model of an integrated ecotourism
V if eij =1 and eji =0 A if e
management system (Bangmola Ecotourism Coastal), the
ij =0 and eji =1 X if eij =1 selected location is P Pramuka, Seribu Islands Regency,
DKI Jakarta Province with the criteria for completeness of
and eji =1 and O if eij =0
ecotourism and the implementation of ecotourism
and eji =0 management has been running but not yet optimal.

Understanding the value of eij =1 is there is contextual

relationship between sub-element ke i and to j, while the
value of eij =0 is there is not any contextual relationship
between sub-elements to i and to j .
Rating result structural self-interaction matrix (
SSIM) then create a table reachability matic (RM)The
matrix is corrected to become a closed matrix that
satisfies the transitivity rule.
The method of solving problems based on the
systems approach is carried out through the stages of system
analysis, model engineering, system design implementation
and system operation. The outline of research data analysis is
carried out through three (3) stages, namely:
1). Tourist Visit Prediction Model
based on the Forecasting method,

The classification of sub-elements refers to the processed 2). ModelFocus Group Discussion (FGD)
RM products that meet the transitivity rules. Processed based on MAAMS method, and
result of valuepower drivers (DP) and value dependence (
3). Model identification of actors / institutional
D) is used to determine the classification of sub-elements
elements of ecotourism management systems
which are divided into four (4) sectors, namely:
based on techniquesInterpretative Structure
1) Independent (strong driver-weak Modeling/(ISM)
dependent variables). The sub-elements
included in this sector have a major driving
force for the success of the program, although
they have low dependence on the program;
2) Dependent (weak driver-strongly dependent
variables). The sub-elements in this sector have sub-
elements which are dependent (non-independent)
variables on the program;
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3) Linkage (strong driver-strongly dependent
The results of the system design are supported
variables). The sub-elements included in this
by a computer-based Decision Support System with
sector provide direction for all parties and must
the name Bangmola Coastal Ecotourism which can
be studied carefully because the relationship
be done by activating the database management
between the sub-elements is unstable, and every
system, model base management system and directly
action on the sub-elements will have an impact
interacting in the dialog system.
on other sub-elements and the feedback effect
can enlarge impact, Decision Making Bangmola Coastal
Ecotourism
Decision support system processingBangmola
Coastal Ecotourism” :
1) The Tourist Visit Prediction Model is shown in
the form of Figure 1.
Predicting forecasting results with linear regression
with the smallest error rate MAD = 205,041.2 and
MSE = 8,750,032 with Scout P area: 16,73 ha
Year Tourist Prediction Kep. One thousand

2019 1,613,494

2020 1,743,543

2021 1,873,592

2022 2,003,641

2023 2,133,689

2024 2,263,738

2025 2,393,787

2026 2,523,835

2027 2,653,884
Figure 1. Display of the decision support system program "
Bangmola Coastal Ecotourism”. 2028 2,783,933

4.1. Tourist Visit Prediction Model Based on

Forecasting
Based on the situation assessment, data and information
collection, as well as future analysis and predictions as a
reference for the sustainability of the Thousand Islands
ecotourism management, the results are obtained
forecasting From the Thousand Islands BPS data in
numbers, the Thousand Islands Tourist Visit Prediction is
generated which is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Thousand Islands Tourist Visits
Year Thousand Islands Tourist
Referring to the prediction of forecasting results with
the smallest error MAD = 205,041.2 and MSE =
8,750,032 is linear regression and the Scout area does
not increase, it is estimated that in the next 10 years
there will be landfill and environmental degradation.
For this reason, the local government of P Pramuka
Regency and tourism managers must strive to
preserve the environment, such as building
mangrove forests, breeding turtles, sharks and rays
as well as coral reefs, bondol eagles, and turtles.

2008 132,743
4.2. Focus Group Discuss (FGD) model based
2009 141.227
on the MAAMS . method
2010 231.020 P. Scout which can be accessed from Marina –
2011 558,998
Ancol by Coastal Boat, Kali Adem Muara Angk
Harbor by traditional boat or Dis Hub speed boat,
2012 659,998 or Sunda Kelapa by Ferry to all tourist attractions,
making it an attractive tour package that can
2013 1,138,900
reach tourist attractions P. Scouts, within 1-1.5
2014 1,785,280 hours of travel. Pramuka Island which is loved by
some nature lovers, snorkeling, diving, fishing
2015 986,300 banana and donut boat, jetski, speed boat and
canoing which is quite unique, natural and cool
2016 1,110,000
makes the attraction of Pramuka Island.
2017 1,186,647 Referring to a strategic location, near the capital
city of Jakarta, which is comfortable, safe and full
2018 1,234,112 of charm, it is competitively superior to other
areas, so that it is expected to increase the
growth of regional tourism.
Focus Group Discussion - The FGD tried to capture all
the opinions of ecotourism actors including the
community around the ecotourism location, so that a
number of opinions were obtained which were
elements of affinity, then the affinity element was
grouped with similar opinions and the next stage was
a cause and effect analysis to get to the root of the
problem in ecotourism development so that a solution
could be given in the form of a decision. /
recommendations for ecotourism development in the
Thousand Islands Regency.
Results of the Focus Group Discussion – FGD P. Scouts
Referring to the suggestions/consultation of the
community and the stakeholders P. Scout ecotourism,
then grouping the similarities and looking for the root
cause of the problem of inequality in the management
of ecotourism P Scouts, Seribu Islands Regency is
shown in Table 1.
4.3. Ecotourism Development Institutional
Model
The system and institutional model of the P. Pramuka
ecotourism park is designed into two (2) sub models, namely:
1) Sub-model identification of system elements, and 2)
Sub-model of system element structuring. Sub-model
identification of system elements is carried out to
obtain important elements that affect the system. Sub-
model structuration of system elements is carried out
to obtain the hierarchy and classification of the
system.
4.3.1. Sub Model Identification of Elements of
Ecotourism Management System Actors
The data elements studied refer to the results of needs
analysis and formulation of problems in developing
coastal ecotourism management systems.
The results of the verification of the identification model
for the elements of program actors in the development of
an ecotourism management system based on interviews
with tourism experts
Table 1. Networking the root of the problem,
problem solution and program development
 The result of this FGD process was an agreement on
actions to implement solutions and priorities for the
development of ecotourism in P. Pramuka, Kepulauan
Seribu Regency.
Dr. Yohanes Sulistyadi (Tourism Expert - Sahid Jakarta
Polytechnic) stated that there are three
The twelve elements of Ecotourism Program Actors are
shown in Table 2.
4.3.2. Sub-Model of Structuring Ecotourism
Management System Elements
The structuring of the elements of the ecotourism
management system is applied using the following
techniques: Interpretative Structure Modeling (ISM). The
structuring process is used based on the results of factor
identification through interviews with ecotourism experts.
The elements of the ecotourism management system studied
are: elements of actors.
a. Program Elements Structure
The assessment of opinions on the elements of program
actors which are broken down into several elements is
used the V, A, X and O approaches. Each individual expert
opinion value is aggregated to obtain a combined expert
opinion value. Each assessment of individual expert
opinion or joint expert opinion is carried out based on the
creation of a matrixreachibility, if the matrix, has not been
consistently carried out the process of making a revision
matrix. Matrix resultreachibility revision on the elements
of the program actors based on the combined opinion are
shown in Table 3.
 Table 3. Matrix Reachibility Revision On Program Actors Elements

Furthermore, the results of the processing of the ISM elements of the program actors are based on the map Driver Power – Dependence shown in
Figure 2.

Linkage

Dependent

Figure 2. Map of the classification of program actors within the sector Driver Power – Dependence.

Independent Linkage

Power Driver

Autonomous Dependent

Dependence

Map of the classification of the elements of this
program. shows that program actors have key
elements consisting of Elements (E1: Ecotourists)
(E2: Marine National Park Managers), Elements (E3:
Local Government) and Elements (E10: Community
Around Coastal Tourism), (E4 : Academics), (E5 : NGO
- Walhi) which has a great driving power with
the highest rank. Axis mappingPower Driver (
Drv) to Dependence (Dep) indicates the key
elements included in
sector independent This means that the
program actors have a large driving force but
little dependence on other elements of the
actor.
Axis mapping Power Driver (Drv) toDependence (
Dep) on Element (E6 : Restaurant / Restaurant
Entrepreneur), Element (E7 : Hotel / Home Stay
Entrepreneur), Element (E 9 : Boat Transportation
Actors), Element (E 9 : Travel Agent), included in
the sector linkage which means that the actors of
the program, must be studied carefully because
the relationship between elements is unstable
and shows a strong link between elements.
Axis mapping Power Driver (Drv) to
Dependence (Dep) on Elements (E 11 : Event
Organizer) Elements (E 12 : Craftsmen / Street
Vendors) and finally Elements (E 13 :
Association of Recreational Entrepreneurs) are
included in the sector dependentwhich means
that the program actors are bound variables
and have a high dependence on elements
between program actors.
The output of the structural model of program
actors on the ISM-VAXO shows that the key
elements are included in the sector independent
has a large driving force with the highest rank, but
has a weak linkage or has a small dependence on
other elements of the actor. The structure of the
program actors can be seen in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Diagram of Structural Model of Actors
Program
The classification of program actors elements
means that the level of L–1 consists of Elements (E
1 : Ecotourists), Elements (E 2 : Marine National Park
Managers) and Elements (E 3 : Local Governments),
Elements (E10 : Communities Around Coastal
Tourism), (E4 : Academics), (E5 : NGO's - Walhi)
as a key element that plays an important role in
ecotourism management.
The classification of program actors elements
means that the level of L–2 consists of Elements (E6:
Restaurant / Restaurant Entrepreneurs), Elements
(E7: Hotel / Home Stay Entrepreneurs), Elements (E
9: Boat Transportation Actors), Elements (E 9: Travel
Agents), although they have a large enough driving
force but has a strong relationship, so it is
necessary to study carefully. Changes that occur in
one of these elements will affect the other
elements.
In independent variables that have little driving
force and are highly dependent on other variables,
and the influence on inter-element program actors
one day becomes important at the program level. L-3
consisting of Elements Elements (E6: Restaurant /
Restaurant Entrepreneurs), Elements (E7: Hotel / Home
Stay Entrepreneurs), Elements (E 9: Boat
Transportation Actors), Elements (E 9: Travel Agents).
In level L-4 independent variable that has a
small driving force and is highly dependent on
other variables. On the other hand, it has a high
dependency so that the completion of program
actors will be very important to obtain (E 11:
Event Organizer) Elements (E 12: Craftsmen /
Street Vendors) and finally Elements (E 13:
Association of Recreational Entrepreneurs).
V. CONCLUSION
Based on the results and discussion, it can be
concluded that:
1, Prediction of forecasting results with linear
regression has the smallest error rate with
MAD = 205,041.2 and MSE = 8,750,032 with
Scout P area: 16.73 ha
2. Referring to the root cause of the ecotourism
management problem of P Scouts, Seribu Islands
Regency, solutions and priorities for ecotourism
development are obtained
a) The location of the Marina - Ancol, Kali Adem -
Muara Angke, and Sunda Kelapa ports can be
reached by increasing the number of cruises
and adding speed boats.
b) Promotion of eco tourism, the number of hotels/
homestays, participating in various ecotourism
events, hygienic culinary, souvenirs can be
achieved by intensifying the promotion of
ecotourism P Scouts
c) Special tours for coral reef breeding,
educational tours (turtles), sharks and
 stingrays, developing souvenir creativity,
building tourist awareness of environmental
sustainability can be achieved by
strengthening Ecotourism P Scouts
d) encourage the improvement of public
welfare, invite the participation of the public
and tourists, revitalize local cultural
attractions, tourists who come to scribble
with writing, can be achieved by building
environmental awareness
e) holding enlightenment with cultural figures, arts,
dances, cultural arts parties, holding exhibitions,
cultural attractions of Betawi fishermen can be
achieved by preserving culture
Surfacing Testing) and ISM (Interpretative
Structural Modeling), International Journal of
Development Research, Vol. 7, No.12, p.
17830-17834, IJDR
Nugroho BS and K. Sulistyadi, 2008. Planning
Starfruit-Based Agroindustry Development
in Depok Based on a System Approach,
National Seminar on Agroindustry
Brawijaya Malang, Malang
Sulistyadi. K, SL Susanty and Soecahyadi, 2008,
Ecotourism Management Optimization System
Modeling (Case Study of Mekarsari Tourism
Park), Competitive Grant Research 2007-2008,
DP2M-DIKTI

3) The results of the institutional analysis Sulistyadi. K, SL Susanty and Soecahyadi, 2009,
based on the ISM technique found that the Application of Marketing Strategy for
institutional structure that is the key Agrotourism Mekarsari Park, Journal of
element to the sustainability of the Tourism IImu Trisakti Jakarta, vol.14. No.3,
Ecotourism management of Pramuka Pulau Trisakti Jakarta Tourism Science
Seribu Island, is Element (E 1 : Ecotourism),
Sulistyadi. K, 2006, Planning System Modeling
Element (E 2 : Marine National Park
Pulp Industry Through Interpretative
Manager), Element (E 3 : Ecotourist). Local
Structural Modeling Techniques - ISM, UID
Government), Elements (E10: Communities
Accredited Journal of Industrial Engineering,
Around Coastal Tourism), (E4: Academics),
Vol. VI. No.1, p. 35-44, January - June 2006
and (E5: NGO - Walhi) which play an
(ISSN: 1693-9301), Jakarta.
important role in ecotourism management.
in ecotourism management. Turban. 1995, Managerial Decision Support Systems
Perspectives. Mc Millan, New York
Policy Implication
Tirtawinata. MR and Lisdiana Fachrudin, 1996, Daya
Sub elements of the Program Actors Elements
Ecotourism Attraction and Management,
in the context of conserving natural resources
Self-Help Spreader, Jakarta.
and realizing sustainable management,
harmonization is needed which can be
implemented in the DKI Provincial Government
policies as stipulated in Regional Regulation
Number 1 of 2012 concerning Regional Spatial
Planning 2030 with a Review of Archipelagic
National Park Management Plans One thousand
years 1999-209

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