CHAROTAR UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY (CHARUSAT)
FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES (FMS)
INDUKAKA IPCOWALA INSTITUTE OF
MANAGEMENT
(I2IM)

TOPIC
DEMAND FORECASTING FOR DELL PRODUCT OF
LAPTOP

MBA Programme

Batch 2021-23

Semester – I

MB700.4 Managerial Economics

Id No Name
21MBA101 PRAJAPATI VISHAL R
21MBA116 SHAH NEHA Y
21MBA093 PATEL SWEETY I
21MBA043 KACHIYA DARSITABEN P
 DEMAND FORECASTING FOR DELL PRODUCT OF
LAPTOP

Abstract – This paper examines forecasting method for dell product of laptop.
Forecasting method assessed consists of simple moving average method and
primarily based totally on accuracy ,exponential smoothing method with α =
0.4produces the most accurate forecasting method used in this paper is readily
transferable to other dell product data sets with demand figures

I. INTRODUCTION
Forecasting may be extensively taken into consideration as a technique or a way
for estimating many destiny factors of a commercial enterprise or different
operations. All forecasting approach may be divided into vast categories:
qualitative and quantitative. Many forecasting strategies use beyond or historic
facts with inside the shape of time collection. A time collection is really a hard
and fast of observations measured at successive factor in time or basically offer
destiny values of the time collection on a particular variable inclusive of income
volume. Exponential smoothing is one the time collection method that's
extensively utilized in forecasting. Exponential smoothing offers more weight to
extra latest observations and takes into consideration all preceding observations.
In everyday terms, an exponential weighting scheme assigns the most weight to
the maximum latest statement and the burden decline in a scientific way as older
and older observations are included. Weight with inside the exponential
smoothing method is given through exponential smoothing (). Forecast values
are various with the values of this constant. So, Forecast mistakes also are
depended on. Many authors used exponential smoothing approach in
forecasting.

II. DATA COLLECTION

The records for this observe had been accumulated and recorded on weekly
basis. The data contain Shipment world wide of product dell laptop from 2015
to 2021. All the data was saved into an Excel spreadsheet
Demand of product of laptop (in millions units )

Years Shipment
world wide
2015 163.1
2016 156.3
2017 161.6
2018 162.3
2019 173
2020 222.5
2021 276.8

III. METHODOLOGY
This study evaluated different forecasting models using sales demand data from
2015 to 2021 years. The data were adjusted into MS excel spreadsheet. The
forecasting models used in the analysis were the following: simple moving
average, exponential smoothing moving average method. The most appropriate
forecasting method in this paper was determined on the basis of accuracy and
easy of use. In this research paper several common accuracy method were used
as following: Forecast Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). A
ranking was assigned to each forecasting method .

IV FORECASTING METHOD

simple moving average method:

The simple moving average method involves calculating the average of

observations and then employing that average as the predictor for the next
period. The moving average method is highly dependent on n, the number of
terms selected for constructing the average. The equation is as follows:

Ft+1 = (At +At-1 +At-2 + ……+At-n+1)/n

Where:
Ft+1 = Is the forecast for next period

At = The actual value at period t

n = Is the forecasting horizon (how far back we look)

The optimal n value can be determine by interactive model that the smallest
error. In a few method the overall technique has been to apply MSE. In this
study, the years value of n taking 1, 2 and 3 .

Exponential Smoothing Method :

The exponential smoothing method is a way that makes use of a weighted

moving average of beyond data as the premise for a forecast. This method
continues a running average of call for and adjusts it for every period in share to
the distinction among the latest actual demand determine and the latest value of
the average.

The equation for the simple exponential smoothing method is:

Ft+1 = α Dt + (1-α) Ft-1

Where:

Ft+1 = the new smoothing value or the forecast value for the next period

α= The smoothing constant varies from 0 to 1

Dt =the actual demand last periodt

Ft =forecast for the last period t

The accuracy of the simple exponential smoothing method strongly depended

on the optimal value of (α). The desired variety for α is from 0.1 to 0.4 . In this
study, the value of α taking 0.1, 0.2,0.3 and .0.4

V. MEASURING FORECASTING ERROR

Mean forecasting error (MFE) is the mean of the deviation of the forecast
demands from the actual demands.

Where: n

A F t t
MFE  i 1
n
At = the actual value in time period t

Ft = the forecast value in time period t

n = the number of periods

Mean Absolute Deviation.

A common method for measuring overall forecast error is the mean absolute
deviation (MAD).This value is computed by dividing the sum of the absolute
values of the individual forecast error by the sample size (the number of forecast
periods). The equation is:

 A F t t
MAD  i 1

Where: n

At = the actual value in time period t

Ft = the forecast for the last period t

n = the number of periods

VI .CALCULATION
1. simple moving average method:
Years Shipment 1 years Error = 2 years Error = A 3 years Error = A
world wide MA (F) A-F MA (F) -F MA (F) -F
(A)

2015 163.1
2016 156.3 163.1 -6.8
2017 161.6 156.3 5.3 159.7 1.9
2018 162.3 161.6 0.7 158.95 3.35 160.33 1.97
2019 173 162.3 10.7 161.95 11.05 160.67 12.33
2020 222.5 173 49.5 167.65 54.85 165.63 56.87
2021 276.8 222.5 54.3 197.75 79.05 185.93 90.87
2022 ? 276.8 249.65 224.1
Total Error 113.7 150.2 162.04
Mean Error 18.95 30.04 40.51
 2. Exponential Smoothing Method
Years Shipment α= Error α = 0.2 Error α = 0.3 Error α =0.4 Eroor
world wide 0.1
Dt

2015 163.1 163.1 163.1 163.1 163.1

2016 156.3 163.1 6.8 163.1 6.8 163.1 6.8 163.1 6.8
2017 161.6 162.42 0.82 161.74 0.14 161.06 0.54 160.38 1.22
2018 162.3 162.34 0.04 161.71 0.59 161.22 1.08 160.87 1.43
2019 173 162.34 10.66 162.83 10.17 161.54 11.46 161.44 11.56
2020 222.5 163.41 59.09 164.86 57.64 165 57.5 166.06 56.44
2021 276.8 169.32 107.48 176.39 100.41 182.25 94.55 188.64 88.16
2022 ? 180.07 196.47 210.62 223.90
Total Absolute Error 184.89 175.75 171.93 165.61
Mean Absolute 30.81 29.29 28.66 27.60
Deviation (MAD)

VII. CONCLUSIONS

This take a look at recognized the maximum suitable forecasting method based on accuracy
and simplicity. The end result confirmed the Exponential Smoothing Method (α=0.4)
received the great accuracy; however, it turned into decided on because the maximum
suitable forecasting method for Shipment world wide forecasting of Dellp roduct (laptop )