[Vietnam] Utilities December 1, 2021

Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Hold

Corporation
(HOSE: REE) (Update report)

The specter of Covid Target price:

68,500 VND
(-2.84%)

Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC.

Nguyen Nam Son, son.nn@miraeasset.com.vn

Investment thesis 9M21 results improved, but still below expectations

 Consolidated revenue and profit after tax reached VND3,912bn (-1.6% of shares) and VND1,063bn
(+8.8% of shares), respectively, achieving 56.4% and 58.6%, respectively, of the 2021F plan.
Some key points about REE's business segments to September 30, 2021:
 M&E: The total value of newly-signed contracts (M&E) reached VND2,399bn, up 32.4% compared with
9M20, in line with our expectation that the M&E segment will begin to recover gradually starting from
3Q21. According to Refrigeration Electrical Engineering (REE), this segment's revenue and profit
dropped significantly in 3Q21, as many construction projects were not completed in time for
recognition, due to the impact of social distancing measures. REEPRO and REETECH are still heavily
impacted by the pandemic, as was forecast.
 Real estate, water infrastructure, and electricity retail: Business results were stable, and came
quite close to the full-year expectations outlined in our most recent report. Profit after tax in 9M21
was recorded at VND335bn (real estate), VND210bn (water infrastructure), and VND16bn (electricity
retail), respectively, reaching 74.3%, 72.2%, and 85.3%, respectively, of our 2021F expectation. REE 6
may be deployed later than planned, but is still expected to be completed in 3Q23.
 Energy – Wind power and thermal power segment: This segment recorded better-than-expected
results. Profit after tax in 9M21 recorded VND31bn (wind power) and VND91bn (thermal power),
respectively, reaching 80.3% and 95.8%, respectively, of our 2021F forecast. Currently, according to the
information provided by REE, three new wind power projects have been completed on schedule and
thus have been recognized as COD, in time to enjoy the FIT price (8.5 cents/kWh for Phu Lac 2 and Loi
Hai 2, 9.8 cents/kWh for Tra Vinh). These wind farms are expected to operate at full capacity in 2022
with 0% tax incentives for the first four years.
 Energy – Hydroelectricity segment: In 3Q21, EVN has been unable to finalize the price of the PPA
power purchase agreement for the TKT project. This, combined with a sharp increase in interest
expense due to the recognition of interest expense from TKT Factory, meant that REE recorded a loss
of VND42bn in 3Q21. Moreover, the hydrological situation is not favorable, so the 3Q21 revenue and
profit of hydropower factories in the North are not positive. As the hydropower segment's growth
has fallen short of our forecast quite a bit, we revise our forecast for consolidated profit after tax for
2021F downward to VND1,710bn from the VND2,089bn in our previous report.

Valuation and recommendation Maintain Hold and target price of VND68,500

 We maintain our Hold rating for REE, with a target price of VND68,500 (-2.84%). We forecast profit to
decrease by 8% in 2021–2022, using the DCF (FCFF) method
Key Data
Current price (11/30/2021, VND) 70,500 Market cap (VNDbn) 21,943
NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 1,675 Shares outstanding (mn) 309
Consensus NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 1,964 Free float (%) 48.0
EPS growth (21F, %) -6.1 Foreign ownership (%) 49.0
P/E (21F, x) 14.3 Beta (12M) 0.7
Market P/E (x) 14.6 52-week low (VND) 46,000
VN-Index 1,478.4 52-week high (VND) 76,900
Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics
(%) 1T 6T 12T Fiscal year (12/31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Absolute -5.7 22.0 45.1 NII (VNDbn) 5,101 4,890 5,640 6,561 8,277 8,810
Relative -8.1 13.6 -2.3
Net fee income (VNDbn) 915 946 1,239 1,675 2,275 2,414
TOI (VNDbn) 17.9 19.4 22.0 25.5 27.5 27.4
NPAT - MI (VNDbn) 1,784 1,639 1,628 1,529 1,995 2,273
EPS (VND) 5,754 5,286 5,251 4,930 6,433 7,329
ROE (%) 20.6 16.6 14.9 12.1 13.5 13.7
P/E (x) (@VND68,500) 5.4 6.9 9.3 14.0 10.7 9.4
P/B (x) (@VND68,500) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.3
Source: Bloomberg (at 19/11/2021), Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
12/01/2021 Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation

Prospects and projections 2021–2023

Table 1: REE's 9M21 financial statement by main segment

Unit: VNDbn
% Ratio Ratio
9M21 9M21
Revenue increase/decrease 9M21 9M20
REE M&E 1,092 1,876 -41.8% 27.9% 47.2%
REEPRO/REETECH/RMC 226 484 -53.3% 5.8% 12.2%
Leasing office 680 722 -5.8% 17.4% 18.2%
Real estate 7 14 -50.0% 0.2% 0.4%
Power 1,858 877 111.9% 47.5% 22.1%
Water 48 - n/a 1.2% 0.0%
Other - - n/a 0.0% 0.0%
Total 3,912 3,974 -2%

REE’s NPAT
REE M&E 63 119 -47.1% 5.9% 12.2%
REEPRO/REETECH/RMC 8 32 -75.0% 0.8% 3.3%
Leasing office 340 367 -7.4% 32.0% 37.6%
Real estate (5) 36 -113.9% -0.5% 3.7%
Power 467 271 72.3% 43.9% 27.7%
Water 210 185 13.5% 19.8% 18.9%
Other (20) (33) -39.4% -1.9% -3.4%
Total 1,063 977 9%

Source: REE, FS 9M21

Table 2: REE’s 9M21 income statement for the energy segment

% Ratio Ratio
9M21 9M21
Unit: VNDbn increase/decrease 9M21 9M20
Revenue 1,858 877 112%
Power 1,439 482 199% 77.4% 55.0%
Hydroelectric 1,166 392 197% 62.8% 44.7%
Solar power 186 10 1760% 10.0% 1.1%
Wind power 105 80 31% 5.7% 9.1%
Elec. trans 419 396 6% 22.6% 45.2%

Profit after tax 524 330 59%

Thermal power 91 116 -22% 17.4% 35.2%
Hydroelectric 320 207 55% 61.1% 62.7%
Solar power 65 2 3150% 12.4% 0.6%
Wind power 31 (9) 444% 5.9% -2.7%
Elec.
16 14 14% 3.1% 4.2%
transmission
NPAT – MI 467 271 72%

Source: REE, FS 9M21

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REE's business results in 9M21 were generally flat, due to the pandemic situation, which was
beyond HCMC municipal government’s control. The sharp decline in 3Q business results had
a great impact on the entire 9M21 business performance. In the 3Q21, REE recorded revenue
and profit after tax for shareholders of the parent company of VND1,093bn and VND263bn,
decreasing by 27.3% and 24.1%, respectively. Except for the water segment, the profit after
tax of all other segments decreased.

We re-evaluated and adjusted our energy forecast, as 3Q21 results fell short of expectations.
We maintain our assessment of the remaining segments, as we do not expect M&E and office
leasing to see negative changes in our 2021–2023 forecast. We believe the difficulties seen in
3Q for these two areas are only short-term (due to social distancing, projects had to stop
construction and no new projects deployed, and office rent had to be reduced for customers).

Forecast summary
Table 3: REE's revenue and profit forecast for 2021–2023

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Unit: VNDbn
Net revenue 5,101 4,890 5,640 6,561 8,277 8,810
Refrigeration mechanics 3,427 3,173 3,474 2,871 3,470 3,741
Utilities 834 790 1,178 2,741 3,838 3,943
Real estate and office leasing 839 927 987 950 969 1,126
Cost of sales (3,873) (3,644) (4,034) (4,531) (5,589) (5,951)
Refrigeration mechanics (3,012) (2,787) (3,000) (2,498) (3,054) (3,292)
Utilities (508) (544) (739) (1,728) (2,221) (2,270)
Real estate and office leasing (353) (313) (296) (305) (314) (390)
Gross profit 1,228 1,246 1,606 2,030 2,688 2,858
Total SG&A (313) (300) (366) (355) (412) (444)
Selling expense (99) (78) (83) (70) (87) (101)
Administrative expense (215) (222) (284) (285) (325) (343)
EBIT 915 946 1,239 1,675 2,275 2,414
Finance income 304 442 222 223 213 279
Finance expense (111) (386) (475) (661) (790) (714)
* Interest expense (225) (409) (416) (661) (790) (714)
Share of profit of associates 999 907 915 720 888 936
Operating profit 2,106 1,910 1,901 1,958 2,588 2,916
Other income 12 11 22 16 19 18
Profit before tax 2,118 1,920 1,924 1,974 2,607 2,934
Tax (233) (200) (210) (257) (292) (317)
Profit after tax 1,885 1,720 1,714 1,717 2,315 2,616
Minority interest 101 81 85 181 303 323
Attributable to shareholder of the parent 1,784 1,639 1,628 1,536 2,012 2,293
EPS 5,754 5,286 5,251 4,953 6,489 7,396
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research forecast

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Valuation & recommendation

Discounted cash flow

Table 4: WACC assumption

WACC 11.83%
Debt ratio (%) 20.00%
Cost of debt 8.00%
Cost of equity (CAPM) 13.00%
Risk-free rate 3.00%
Beta 1.00
Country risk premium 10.00%
Tax 10.9%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research forecast

We assume REE's terminal growth rate at 2%, as the energy sector is an essential
industry and likely to grow sustainably over time.

Table 5: FCFF valuation

Terminal
FCFF (Unit: VNDbn) 2021 2022 2023
value
OCF 3,535 2,211 4,612
+ interest expense *(1-tax) 575 701 636
- CAPEX (4,320) 0 (1,600)
FCFF (VNDbn) (210) 2,912 3,648 37,874
Discount factor 0.98 0.88 0.78 0.70
Discounted FCFF (206) 2,556 2,864 26,585
Enterprise value 31,798
- Net debt 10,565
Equity value 21,233
Outstanding shares
(mn shares) 310,059
Price per share (VND) 68,500
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research forecast

We still see promising upside prospects for the stock, thanks to three key factors: 1) an
investment portfolio that is already profitable (hydroelectricity, wind power, the
possibility of increasing PPA prices for TKT hydropower plants); and 2) the expected
benefits when EVN increasingly purchases renewable electricity to make up for the
shortfall in thermal power commercial output, 3) coupled with the possibility that REE
will win some big M&E contracts for the public investment segment.

Thus, we maintain our Hold recommendation and target price of VND68,500 to reflect
the aforementioned factors.

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Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation (HOSE: REE)

INCOME STATEMENT Balance sheet (summary)

VNDbn 2020 2021 2022 2023 (VNDbn) 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net sales 5,640 6,561 8,277 8,810 Cash and cash equivalent 652 1,558 2,010 3,188
M&E sales 3,474 2,871 3,470 3,741 Short-term investment 1,329 500 500 1,000
Utilities 1,178 2,741 3,838 3,943 Short-term trade receivables 1,349 1,180 1,236 1,230
Real estates and office lease 987 950 969 1,126 Other short-term receivables 1,734 1,268 1,118 968
Cost of sales (4,034) (4,531) (5,589) (5,951) Inventories 808 1,490 1,837 1,957
Refrigeration mechanics (3,000) (2,498) (3,054) (3,292) Other current assets 139 161 203 217
Utilities (739) (1,728) (2,221) (2,270) Current asset 6,009 6,156 6,905 8,559
Real estates and office lease (296) (305) (314) (390) Construction in progress 276 400 1,400 -
Gross profit 1,606 2,030 2,688 2,858 Tangible assets 2,519 16,384 15,219 14,053
Total SG&A (366) (355) (412) (444) Intangible assets 66 65 64 62
Selling expense (83) (70) (87) (101) Investment in associates 8,450 6,268 6,634 7,014
Administrative expense (284) (285) (325) (343) Investment properties 1,773 1,647 1,521 2,956
EBIT 1,239 1,675 2,275 2,414 Goodwill 243 305 268 230
Finance income 222 223 213 279 Other long-term assets 1,196 696 695 695
Finance expense (475) (661) (790) (714) Total asset 20,530 31,922 32,706 33,570
Share of profit of associates 915 720 888 936 Short-term trade payables 633 993 1,148 1,141
Operating profit 1,901 1,958 2,588 2,916 Short-term advance from customers 791 878 835 857
Other profit 22 16 19 18 Short-term accrued expense 527 527 527 527
Profit before tax 1,924 1,974 2,607 2,934 Other short-term payables 228 218 264 278
Tax (210) (257) (292) (317) Short-term loans 1,265 1,204 1,225 1,225
Profit before tax 1,714 1,717 2,315 2,616 Current liabilities 3,443 3,821 3,998 4,027
Minority interest 85 181 303 323 Long-term loans 4,335 11,419 10,200 8,980
Attributable to shareholders of
parent 1,628 1,536 2,012 2,293 Long-term unearned revenue 265 251 258 254
EPS (VND) 5,251 4,953 6,489 7,396 Other long-term liabilities 275 275 275 275
Total 8,318 15,765 14,730 13,537
Cashflow (summary)
VNDbn 2020 2021 2022 2023 Share capital 3,101 3,101 3,101 3,101
Net income 1,628 1,536 2,012 2,293 Share premium 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050
Depreciation 322 941 1,331 1,369 Treasury shares (48) (48) (48) (48)
Increase/decrease in working capital (1,337) 1,058 (1,132) 949 Investment and development fund 235 235 235 235
Cashflow from operating activities 613 3,535 2,211 4,612 Undistributed earnings 7,115 8,651 10,167 11,902
CAPEX (884) (4,320) - (1,600) Non-controlling interest 760 3,168 3,471 3,794
Changes in other long-term assets 57 2,581 (366) (379) Total equity 12,213 16,157 17,975 20,033
Cashflow from investing activities (827) (1,739) (366) (1,979) Total resources 20,530 31,922 32,706 33,570
Changes in liabilities (27) 2,869 (1,199) (1,219)
Common dividends (496) - (496) (558) Key financial ratio
New share issuances - - - - Growth
Minority interest 55 181 303 323 Revenue 15.3% 16.3% 26.1% 6.4%
Others (2021: adjusted after acquired
VSH) (205) (3,941) PAT of parent -0.7% -5.7% 31.0% 14.0%
Cashflow from financing activities (674) (891) (1,392) (1,454)
Net change in cash during period (888) 906 453 1,178 Profitability
Cash at beginning of the year 1,540 652 1,558 2,010 Net profit margin 28.5% 30.9% 32.5% 32.4%
Cash at the end of the year 652 1,558 2,010 3,188 Pre-tax profit margin 34.1% 30.1% 31.5% 33.3%
EBIT % 22.0% 25.5% 27.5% 27.4%
EBITDA % 27.7% 39.9% 43.6% 42.9%
ROE 14.7% 12.1% 13.6% 13.8%
ROA 8.5% 6.5% 7.2% 7.9%

Liquidity
Current ratio 0.58 0.72 0.81 1.10
Debt/equity 46% 78% 64% 51%
Source: Company’s FSs, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research forecast

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Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers

Two-year rating and TP history
Target
Company (Ticker) Date Rating (VND) REE VN 12M target price
Price
80,000
Refrigeration Electrical Engineering 12/01/2021 Hold 68,500
Corporation(REE) 10/03/2021 Hold 72,500
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000
Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21

Stock ratings Sector ratings

Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months
Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months
Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months
Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)
* Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months.
* Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise.
* The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings.
* TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

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The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research
analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and
companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS) policy
prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not
serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any
compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report.
No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report
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