2021 Aug Strategy EN - Ed - S

Strategy report | Aug 2021
VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

Riding out the storm
Research team
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents
I. Vietnam economy 7M21 review and economic outlook update 3

II. Vietnam stock market review 18
III. Vietnam stock market prospects 26
IV. Stock recommendations 41
2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I. Vietnam economy 7M21 review and economic outlook update
❑ Stricter social distancing measures imposed amid the ongoing fourth wave of COVID-19 exerted a negative
impact on Vietnam’s economic activities in July. Specifically, industrial production’s recovery momentum
softened in July, growing slightly over the same period last year; import and export turnover growth slowed
significantly compared with the first six months of the year; registered FDI capital slumped; and retail sales and
consumption activities declined compared with the same period in 2020 for the third consecutive month. Thus,
in 7M21, Vietnam’s economy grew at a slower pace compared with the previous recovery.
❑ We lower our forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2021 to 5.9% in the base-case scenario, from 6.5% in
the previous forecast, due to the longer-than-expected duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery
momentum of the economy depends greatly on the speed of pandemic containment, as well as on the
deployment of vaccines in Vietnam and its major trading partners. We believe that the key drivers of Vietnam’s
economy should gradually regain momentum once the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is brought under
control, thanks to: 1) an expected boost in FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an attractive destination for the
global wave of FDI; 2) strengthened external demand, thanks to accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations and
continued stimulus policies in major trading partners, resulting in double-digit growth in exports and improving
industrial production; and 3) the government’s promotion of public investment in the last months of 2021 and
in 2022. On a positive note, the government has been actively implementing monetary and fiscal policies to
support individuals and businesses during the pandemic, and inflation and exchange rates have remained
stable.
❑ The main risks to Vietnam's growth prospects include: 1) a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic on a global
scale, due to an increased number of variants; 2) a slow vaccination rollout preventing a robust recovery; and 3)
a long wait until Travel and Aviation return to pre-pandemic levels, as weak consumption slows the overall
growth momentum of the economy.

Vietnam macroeconomic dashboard
Graph
Indicators Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
(from Jan-2020 to Jul-2021)
COVID-19 trackers
Global new COVID-19 cases per million 917 1,014 1,091 1,556 2,215 2,585 2,498 1,431 1,888 2,887 2,480 1,472 1,850
Total global vaccination per hundred 0.12 1.28 3.28 7.71 14.6 24.91 39.54 52.17
New COVID-19 cases per million in Vietnam 2.1 5.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 3.6 6.5 1.6 3.3 46.3 98.8 1,195
Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05 0.53 1.13 3.88 5.68
Vietnam's stringency index 58.5 77.3 72.2 55.6 45.6 53.5 58.5 70.9 61.6 54.0 73.7 77.3 78.3
Economic indicators
Index of Industrial production (monthly, % YoY) 1.1 -0.6 3.8 5.4 9.2 9.5 22.2 -7.2 3.9 24.1 11.6 6.8 2.2
PMI (point) 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1
Average CPI (% YoY) 4.07 3.96 3.85 3.71 3.51 3.23 0.06 -0.14 0.29 0.89 1.29 1.47 1.64
Retail sales growth (cumulative, % YoY) -0.4 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 6.4 5.5 5.1 10.0 7.6 4.9 0.7
International traveller growth (monthly, % YoY) -98.9 -98.9 -99.1 -99.1 -99.0 -99.0 -99.1 -99.1 -98.7 -25.8 -40.6 -18.0 -46.4
FDI disbursement (monthly, % YoY) 49.3 -70.3 -66.0 -25.2 -0.7 1.4 4.1 -1.0 14.3 7.7 6.5 7.2 -14.3
FDI registration (monthly, % YoY) 0.0 -7.8 6.2 0.5 11.1 -44.8 -62.6 268.3 361.9 -42.3 42.4 -22.7 -50.1
Export growth (cumulative, % YoY) 1.5 2.4 4.2 5.0 5.4 6.5 50.5 23.2 22.0 28.3 30.9 28.4 25.5
Import growth (cumulative, % YoY) -3.2 -2.4 -0.9 0.2 1.6 3.6 41.0 25.9 26.3 30.8 36.2 36.1 35.3
Trade balance (monthly, US$bn) 2.8 5.0 3.0 2.9 0.5 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -0.5 -1.7
Credit growth (% YoY) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 12.7 14.0 15.2 15.4
VND/US$ (% MoM) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
Stock market
VNIndex return (% MoM) -3.2 10.4 2.7 2.2 8.4 10.0 -4.3 10.6 2.0 4.0 7.2 6.1 -7.0
VN-Index's 20-day volatility 30.7 8.9 9.3 14.4 12.1 15.7 41.0 46.4 12.3 21.2 12.8 18.4 33.5
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

Note: Red spots in graphs indicate negative data

I.1 – Lower forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2021
❑ We lower our forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2021 to 5.9% in the base-case scenario, from 6.5% in the previous forecast,
We lower our forecast for
due to the longer-than-expected duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery momentum of the economy depends greatly on
Vietnam’s 2021 GDP the speed of pandemic containment, as well as on the deployment of vaccines in Vietnam and its major trading partners. We believe
growth to 5.9%, that the key drivers for Vietnam’s economy should gradually regain momentum once the fourth COVID-19 pandemic is controlled,
thanks to: 1) an expected boost to FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an attractive destination for the global wave of FDI; 2)
assuming successful
strengthened external demand, thanks to accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations and continued stimulus policies in major trading
COVID-19 containment in partners, resulting in double-digit growth in exports and improving industrial production; and 3) the government’s promotion of public
September investment in the last months of 2021 and in 2022. In addition, the government has been actively implementing monetary and fiscal
policies to support people and businesses during the pandemic, and inflation and exchange rates have remained stable. On a negative
note, there may be a long wait for Travel and Aviation to return to pre-pandemic levels; thus, weak consumption may slow the overall
growth momentum of the economy.
Vietnam GDP growth forecast in 2021
Organization Scenario 2021 GDP growth forecast
Asian Development Bank (ADB) 5.8%

Base case COVID-19 containment as of end-3Q21 4.5%−5.1%
Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) Best case COVID-19 containment in August 5.4%−6.1%
Worst case COVID-19 containment in 4Q21 3.5%−4.0%
Best case COVID-19 containment in August 6.2%
Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)
Worst case COVID-19 containment in October 5.9%
Base case COVID-19 containment in September 5.9%
Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research Best case COVID-19 containment in August 6.1%
Worst case COVID-19 containment in October 5.1%
Source: ADB, VEPR, CIEM, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research forecast

I.2 – COVID-19 vaccinations
• Vietnam is accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations. On July 10, 2021, Vietnam officially launched its largest-ever vaccination campaign, with the
Vietnam targets goal of injecting about 75mn people with 150mn injections in 2H21 and early-2022. The campaign aims to vaccinate over 70% of the
herd immunity in population against COVID-19 by the end of 1Q22.
1Q22 • We expect Vietnam to achieve herd immunity by early-2022 at the earliest. On a positive note, efforts to promote Vietnam’s homemade
COVID vaccine, Nanogen, raise the possibility of Vietnam achieving herd immunity in 2022.
Fourth COVID-19 wave in Vietnam Vietnam’s COVID-19 vaccinations at low level
(# case) New cases per million (L) People vaccinated per hundred (R) (%)
(%) People vaccinated per hundred People fully vaccinated per hundred
120 6
80
100 5 70
60
80 4
50
60 3 40
30
40 2
20
20 1 10
0
0 0
2021-05-17
2021-06-18
2021-04-27
2021-05-01
2021-05-05
2021-05-09
2021-05-13
2021-05-21
2021-05-25
2021-05-29
2021-06-02
2021-06-06
2021-06-10
2021-06-14
2021-06-22
2021-06-26
2021-06-30
2021-07-04
2021-07-08
2021-07-12
2021-07-16
2021-07-20
2021-07-24
2021-07-28
Source: Ourworldindata, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation, updated as of 07/29/2021

I.3 – Industrial production
❑ The index of industrial production (IIP) expanded by 2.2% YoY in July, the lowest increase in the past seven months, due to social distancing
July IIP expanded at
measures by provinces and cities. However, IIP growth in 7M21 recorded positively, reaching 7.9% YoY.
lowest level of last
❑ Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI ticked up to 45.1 points in July from 44.1 in June, signaling a marked deterioration in business conditions in the
seven months manufacturing sector for two consecutive months. The fourth COVID wave has led to a drop in total new orders and further disruption to supply
chains, with delivery delays due to disruptions in domestic and international transportation, as well as raw material shortages.
❑ However, we expect industrial production to maintain its recovery in the last months of 2021, driven by: 1) Vietnam's efforts to contain the
pandemic; 2) Bac Ninh and Bac Giang provinces’ successful containment of the pandemic, with a gradual recovery in production activities in
industrial zones; 3) increasing vaccination rates; and 4) moves towards herd immunity by Vietnam's key trading partners, thus boosting demand
recovery in those countries.
Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 7M21
IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 34.7

(% YoY)
Motor vehicles 30.6
35 Leather and related products 14.2
30 Furniture 13.3
Machinery and equipment 13.0
25 Manufacturing 9.9
20 Textiles 9.5
Computer, electronic, optical products 9.2
15 Electrical equipment 8.7
10 Clothes 8.1
Paper and paper products 8.0
5 Beverages 6.2
0 Manufacture of wood 5.8
Coke, refined petroleum products 5.4
-5 Food products 4.8
Seasonal effects Seasonal effects
-10 Tobacco 3.6
Rubber and plastic products 3.3
-15
Chemicals and chemical products 2.3
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Apr 19
Oct 19
Apr 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jul 19
Nov 19
Dec 19
Jul 20
Dec 20
Jul 21
Mar 19
Aug 19
Mar 20
Nov 20
Mar 21
Aug 20
Feb 19
May 19
Jun 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
May 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
May 21
Jun 21
Printing, recorded media reproduction -1.7

Pharmaceuticals -8.6
(% YoY)
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
Vietnam’s PMI fell below the 50-point threshold for two consecutive months
(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21
Manufacturing PMI
Region/Country Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Global 50.3 47.1 47.3 39.6 42.4 48.0 50.6 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 53.8 53.6 53.9 55.0 55.8 56.0 55.5 55.5
Euro Area 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8 53.8 55.2 54.8 57.9 62.5 62.9 63.1 63.4 62.6
US 51.9 50.7 48.5 36.1 39.8 49.8 50.9 53.1 53.2 53.4 56.7 57.1 59.2 58.6 59.1 60.5 62.1 62.1 63.1
UK 50.0 51.7 47.8 32.6 40.7 50.1 53.3 55.2 54.1 53.7 55.6 57.5 54.1 55.1 58.9 60.7 65.6 63.9 60.4
Emerging Markets 51.0 44.6 49.1 42.7 45.4 49.6 51.4 52.5 52.8 53.4 53.9 52.8 52.1 51.5 51.3 52.2 52.0 51.3 51.3
China 51.1 40.3 50.1 49.4 50.7 51.2 52.8 53.1 53.0 53.6 54.9 53.0 51.5 50.9 50.6 51.9 52.0 51.3 50.3
Japan 48.8 47.8 44.8 41.9 38.4 40.1 45.2 47.2 47.7 48.7 49.0 50.0 49.8 51.4 52.7 53.6 53.0 52.4 53.0
South Korea 49.8 48.7 44.2 41.6 41.3 43.4 46.9 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 52.9 53.2 55.3 55.3 54.6 53.7 53.9 53.0
Vietnam 50.6 49 41.9 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1
ASEAN 49.8 50.2 43.4 30.7 35.5 43.7 46.5 49.0 48.3 48.6 50.0 50.8 51.4 49.7 50.8 51.9 51.8 49.0 44.6
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Exports and imports
❑ The fourth outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected the production activities of some industrial zones and key economic cities, resulting in
Double-digit growth in YoY exports growing at a significantly slower pace in July compared with the growth rates in the first six months of 2021. In particular, exports
exports and imports and imports reached an estimated US$27bn (+8.4% YoY) and US$28.7bn (+29.9% YoY), respectively; slower than their growth rates in 1H21
(exports: 28.4% YoY; imports: +36.1% YoY).
maintained, but trade
❑ In 7M21, Vietnam posted an estimated trade deficit of US$2.7bn, with export turnover reaching US$185.33bn (+25.5% YoY) and import
deficit widened in 7M21 turnover US$188.03bn (+35.3% YoY).
Exports, imports, and trade balance Growth rates of exports and imports
Trade balance (L) Exports ( R) (% YoY) Exports Imports

(US$mn) (US$mn)
Imports ( R)
6,000 35,000 60
5,000 50
30,000
4,000
40
25,000
3,000
30
2,000 20,000
20
1,000 15,000
0 10
10,000
-1,000
0
5,000
-2,000
-10
-3,000 0
Jan 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Apr 20
Apr 21
Jul 20
Dec 20
Jul 21
Mar 20
Nov 20
Mar 21
Aug 20
Feb 20
May 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
May 21
Jun 21
-20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Source: GSO Source: GSO

I.4 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
❑ We believe that export growth will gradually regain momentum, thanks to the following:
Export growth is
• Gradual recovery in the production activities of industrial parks, once they are focused on pandemic prevention and are prioritized for
expected to gradually vaccinations. Bac Giang province has finished implementing Directive No. 19/CT-TTg province-wide, returning to a new normal state from
regain momentum July 29 and thus helping to gradually restore the production activities of enterprises in the province.
• Gradual improvement in external demand, driven by the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and Vietnam’s deepening participation in the global
supply chain. The PMIs of Vietnam’s major trading partners have rebounded above 50 points, signaling improving global demand.
• Key trade agreements officially coming into force. We expect Vietnam’s two key markets — the US and China — as well as the new driver
— the EU — to continue to boost Vietnam’s exports in 2021 and coming years.
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by product
Electronic goods, computers, and their parts

US China EU ASEAN South Korea Japan Phones and their parts
(% YoY)
(% YoY) Machinery, instrument, accessory
100
Textiles and garments
100 Shoes and sandals
75 Wood and products
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
-25
-25
-50 -50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.5 – FDI
Registered and disbursed ❑ In July, disbursed FDI decreased 14.3% YoY, with some plants shutting down or operating at reduced capacity. Newly-registered FDI
capital recorded a decline of 50.1% YoY amid the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
FDI declined YoY in July
❑ In 7M21, registered and disbursed FDI capital recorded modest growth, reaching US$14.7bn (+3.5% YoY) and US$10.5bn (+3.8% YoY),
respectively.
• Newly-registered FDI reached US$10.1bn (+7% YoY), with a total of 1,006 newly-licensed projects (-37.9% YoY).
• Additionally-registered FDI was down 3.7% YoY, to reach US$4.5bn.
❑ Vietnam continues to benefit from the ongoing supply-chain restructuring, with Asian nations being the largest FDI investors in 2020
and 7M21, led by Singapore, Japan, China, and South Korea. We believe that the wave of FDI into Vietnam will accelerate again once
the pandemic is successfully controlled.
FDI attraction and disbursement (2014−7M21) Some major FDI projects in 7M21
Registered FDI (L) FDI disbursement (L)

(US$mn) (% YoY) Project Country Registered capital Products
Registered FDI growth (R) FDI disbursement growth (R)
30,000 80
Long An 1 and 2 Thermal Construction of a thermal
70 Singapore ~ US$3.1bn
Power Plant project power plant
25,000 60
50 O Mon 2 Thermal Power Construction of a thermal
20,000 Japan ~ US$1.31bn
40 Plant project power plant
30
15,000
20 LG Display Hai Phong Additionally-registered
Korea OLED screen products
project capital of US$750mn
10
10,000
0
Plant of Polytex Far Additionally-registered Petrochemical and Textile
-10 Taiwan
5,000 Eastern Vietnam Co., Ltd capital of US$610mn vertical integration factory
-20
0 -30 Jinko Solar PV Manufacturing solar panels
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD photovoltaic cell Hong Kong US$498mn and other electrical
technology project equipment
Source: GSO, updated as of 07/20/2021 Source: MPI

I.5 – FDI (cont’d.)
Registered FDI by sector in 7M21 Registered FDI by country in 7M21
1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.4%
Singapore Japan South Korea China Hong Kong Taiwan US Others
2.4% Manufacturing, processing
1.8%
Production, electricity, gas, steam and air
2.6% 8.7%
conditioning supply
5.8%
Real estate activities
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 5.7%

vehicles and motorcycles
36.5%
Professional, scientific and technical activities
49.4% 8.0%
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and Catering Services

36.7% 10.3%
Construction
Others
11.9%
16.3%
Registered FDI by locality in 7M21
1.4%
Long An Ho Chi Minh city
1.6%
10.1%
1.7% Binh Duong Can Tho
2.1% 24.0%
Hai Phong Ha Noi
2.3%
Quang Ninh Bac Giang
3.0%
2.3% Tay Ninh Bac Ninh
3.8% 5.5%
Dong Nai Dak Lak
4.4%
7.5% Hung Yen Binh Phuoc
4.6%
4.9% Hai Duong Nghe An

9.0%
4.2%
7.6% Ba Ria - Vung Tau Others
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.6 – Domestic consumption
❑ Retail and consumer services fell sharply in July, down 19.8% YoY (May: -1% YoY; June: -6.6% YoY), due to many Southern provinces
Retail and consumption
and cities implementing strict social distancing measures amid a fourth wave of COVID-19. Thus, the growth momentum of retail
activities declined YoY for and consumer services activities in 7M21 slowed substantially, increasing by a mere 0.7% YoY (versus +4.9% YoY in 1H21); if
excluding the price factor, the growth was 0.74% YoY.
the third consecutive
❑ We expect domestic retail activities to gradually regain their growth momentum, with economic activities returning to a normal
month
state once the fourth pandemic wave is successfully contained, accompanied by an improving consumer confidence index.
❑ The main risk for retail and consumer services is that the resurgence of COVID-19 could be prolonged, as this outbreak has different
sources of infection.
Total retail sales and consumption services growth (% YoY) Retail sales and consumption services growth by sector (% YoY)
(% YoY) Retail sales and consumption services Retail sales and consumption services
(% YoY) Retail sales of goods
Retail sales and consumption services, excluding the price factor Accommodation & Catering Services
15 20 Travel Services
Other Services
10
10
0
5 -10
-20
0
-30
-5 -40
-50
-10
-60
-15 -70
Oct 20
Jan 20
Jan 21
Apr 20
Apr 21
Dec 19
Jul 20
Dec 20
Jul 21
Mar 20
Mar 21
Nov 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Feb 20
May 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
May 21
Jun 21
May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21May 21 Jul 21
Source: GSO Source: GSO

I.7 – Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation
• In July, both the number (-33.8% YoY) and the registered capital (-48.7% YoY) of newly-established enterprises declined, as the
Newly-established ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected the business registration situation.
enterprises plunged in July • In 7M21, total registered capital added to the economy reached VND2,432.1tr (+16.1% YoY), of which the registered capital of newly-
established enterprises recorded VND1,065.4tr (+13.8% YoY).
• We believe that as soon as the pandemic is contained successfully, businesses will gradually resume normal production activities.
Thus, the unemployment rate is expected to decline, helping solidify the recovery of domestic demand.
Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Average registered capital of newly-established enterprises (% YoY)

(% YoY)
Newly-established enterprises 160

Re-operated enterprises 140
Enterprises suspending operation for a definite time
Enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures 120
(# firms)
Enterprises completed dissolution procedures 100
-5.1% +0.8%
80,000 80
70,000 60
60,000 40
50,000 20
+23.0%
0
40,000 +41.5%
+17.6% +3.6% +28.6% -20
30,000 -12.2%
-40
20,000 +27.4%
-3.5% -60
10,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
0
7M20 7M21
Source: GSO
Source: GSO

I.8 – Exchange rate
• The VND/US$ declined 0.58% YTD as of end-July, marking a relative appreciation of the VND against the US dollar. Meanwhile, most
VND/US$ exchange rate other Asian currencies depreciated against the US dollar in 7M21, while the USD index remained above 90 in 7M21.
remained stable, with VND • The VND/US$ exchange rate should remain relatively stable, thanks to: 1) an expected deficit decline in the last months of 2021, once
exports accelerate; 2) an expected return to growth for FDI inflows into Vietnam, due to production shifts; 3) the SBV's flexible
tending to appreciate
mechanism for regulating foreign currency supply and demand; 4) expected minimal appreciation of the US dollar in 2021, due to
slightly large-scale economic stimulus packages and Fed support policies; and 5) the US Treasury’s mid-April removal of Vietnam from its list of
currency manipulators and end to the tariff threat on the end-July currency-dispute truce, which should ease pressure on the VND/US$
exchange rate.
• We still expect the VND to appreciate within a range of around 0.5% against the US dollar in 2021.
VND/US$ exchange rate VND is relatively stable compared with other Asian currencies
GBP CNY VND PHP INR
(VND) (End 2020 = 0%) MYR IDR KRW THB JPY

Official rate (SBV) Unofficial rate Commercial banks
24,200 10
24,000 8
23,800 6
23,600 4
23,400 2
23,200 0
23,000 -2
22,800
-4
22,600
22,400
22,200 Note: JPY = Japanese yen, PHP = Philippines peso, CNY = Chinese yuan, VND = Vietnamese dong, INR =
Jul 19 Nov 19 Mar 20 Jul 20 Nov 20 Mar 21 Jul 21 Indian rupee, KRW = Korean won, MYR = Malaysian ringgit, THB = Thailand baht, IDR = Indonesian Rupiah
Source: Bloomberg, as of 07/30/2021
Source: FiinPro, SBV, updated 07/30/2021

I.9 – Inflation
❑ The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.64% YoY in July, while 7M21 average CPI rose 1.64% YoY, the lowest level since 2016.
Inflation remained ▪ The CPI increase in July was due to: 1) Higher food prices on pandemic-induced goods hoarding; 2) rising beverage prices due to high
summertime demand; 3) higher Household Appliances and Equipment prices, mainly due to rising soap and detergent prices on increased
stable
consumer demand during the pandemic; 4) increased housing maintenance material and input material prices; 5) rising prices of medicines and
medical services, due to a jump in demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
▪ Meanwhile, factors that served as a drag on the 1H21 CPI include: 1) Culture, Entertainment, and Tourism are negatively affected by the COVID-
19 pandemic; 2) Post and Telecommunications prices fell, due to the drop in prices of mobile phones and accessories for smartphones and
tablets.
❑ In 2021, inflation is expected to be around 4%, in light of: 1) the expected slow recovery of the Culture, Entertainment, and Tourism segment,
due to the impact of COVID-19; and 2) policies to ensure supply-demand balance and market stability. These two aforementioned factors will
mitigate the increasing inflation risk in 2H21 resulting from a rapid recovery of basic commodity prices and impact of prolonged easing policies.
CPI: MoM and YoY CPI by industry (%)

7M21 avg.
(%) (%) Items YoY YTD MoM
CPI MoM (L) CPI YoY (R) (% YoY)
2.0 7.0
Overall CPI 2.64 2.25 0.62 1.64
6.0
1.5 5.0 Food and Foodstuff 0.52 1.22 0.67 0.81
4.0
1.0 Beverage and Tobacco 1.75 1.37 0.18 1.59
3.0
0.5 2.0 Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.88 0.46 -0.03 0.85
1.0 Housing and Construction Materials 4.44 3.35 0.88 1.65
0.0 0.0
-1.0 Household Appliances and Equipment 0.57 0.60 0.06 0.54
-0.5 -2.0 Medicines and Healthcare 0.16 0.10 0.03 0.21
-3.0
-1.0 Transportation 13.82 11.72 2.36 6.76
-4.0
-1.5 -5.0 Post and Telecommunications -0.85 -0.58 -0.05 -0.71
-6.0
Education 4.12 0.45 0.03 4.09
-2.0 -7.0
Jan 19
Oct 19
Jan 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Mar 19
Jul 20
Mar 21
Apr 19
Dec 19
Mar 20
Apr 20
Dec 20
Apr 21
Jul 19
Jul 21
Nov 19
Aug 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Feb 19
May 19
Jun 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
May 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
May 21
Jun 21
Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -1.09 -0.35 -0.10 -1.18
Other Services 1.44 0.89 0.00 1.64
Source: GSO Source: GSO, updated as of June 2021

Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F
Real GDP growth (%, YoY) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 5.9
Export growth (%, YoY) 13.8 8.1 9.0 21.1 13.2 8.4 6.5 18
Import growth (%, YoY) 12 12.1 5.6 20.8 11.1 6.8 3.6 20
Trade balance (US$ bn) 2.0 -3.2 2.6 2.7 6.8 11.1 19.1 17.2
FDI disbursement (US$ bn) 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.0 21
Retail growth, excluding inflation (%, YoY) 6.2 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.2 -1.2 4
Average CPI (%) 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 4
Foreign exchange reserve (US$ bn) 34.5 30.5 36.7 49.2 55.3 78.5 94.8 110
Credit growth (%, YoY) 14.2 17.3 18.2 18.3 10.7 13.6 12.2 13
Exchange rate VND/US$ 21,388 22,485 22,761 22,698 23,175 23,314 23,267 23,151
Change in VND/US$ (%) 1.4 5.1 1.2 -0.3 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.5
Public debt (%/GDP)* 43.6 46.1 47.6 46.3 43.6 43.4 46.6 47.1
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, MPI, Bloomberg, WB, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
Note (*): GDP is revised to adhere to international practices. After recalculation, the revised GDP increased by 25.4% on average over the period 2010-2017.

II. Vietnam stock market review
• The VN-Index experienced a bid correction in July, following months of strong gains that had pushed the
benchmark’s P/E to nearly two standard deviations above the 10-year average. The sell-off was partially fueled
by increasing bearish sentiment over the spread of the COVID-19. The VN-Index touched a monthly low of
1,225 pts, a correction of nearly 14% from the short-term peak of 1,424 pts. However, the early release of some
solid 2Q21 earnings results helped to lift sentiment, and the VN-Index rebounded to finish the month at 1,310
pts (-7% MoM). The VN-Index’s July return underperformed most regional peers, as well as other MSCI indexes.
• The fall-off was spread across industries, with Banks, Real Estate, and Materials being the main drags. Bucking
the trend, Retailing contributed the most to the VN-Index’s upside. Remarkably, Software & Services chalked up
a twelfth straight monthly gain.
• Negatively, market liquidity was relatively low, with the average trading value falling more than 15% MoM to
below VND19tr per day. According to our liquidity tracker, Retailing, Technology Hardware & Equipment, and
Software & Services attracted the most market cash flow.
• Foreign investors were the net buyers of US$209mn in July; thus, YTD net outflow narrowed to US$1.3bn.
Meanwhile, offshore investors retained their selling strategy in many other Asian markets.

II.1 – Market performance review
• The VN-Index experienced a bid correction in July, following months of strong gains that had pushed the benchmark’s P/E to
The VN-Index corrected 14% from nearly two standard deviations above the 10-year average. The sell-off was partially fueled by increasing bearish sentiment over
the short-term peak of 1,424p, the spread of the COVID-19. The VN-Index touched a monthly low of 1,225 pts, a correction of nearly 14% from the short-term
peak of 1,424 pts. However, the early release of some solid 2Q21 earnings results helped to lift sentiment, and the VN-Index
before bouncing back rebounded to finish the month at 1,310pts (-7% MoM).
• With a drop of 7% in July, the VN-Index underperformed most regional peers, as well as other MSCI indexes. Under the current
wave of COVID-19 infections in Southeast Asian countries, many regional stock markets experienced a bad month, including the
Philippines (-9.2%), Thailand (-4.1%), and Malaysia (-2.5%).
Global performance monitor: Monthly change (%)
Vietnam US MSCI DM MSCI EM MSCI FM Korea Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore
Index VNINDEX SPX MXWO MXEF MXFM KOSPI NKY SHCOMP HIS TWSE SENSEX SET FBMKLCI JCI PCOMP STI
01-2020 -2.5% -0.2% -0.7% -4.7% -0.1% -3.6% -1.9% -2.4% -6.7% -4.2% -1.3% -4.2% -3.6% -5.7% -7.9% -2.1%
02-2020 -5.8% -8.4% -8.6% -5.3% -5.9% -6.2% -8.9% -3.2% -0.7% -1.8% -6.0% -11.5% -3.2% -8.2% -5.7% -4.5%
03-2020 -24.9% -12.5% -13.5% -15.6% -23.2% -11.7% -10.5% -4.5% -9.7% -14.0% -23.1% -16.0% -8.9% -16.8% -21.6% -17.6%
04-2020 16.1% 12.7% 10.8% 9.0% 6.0% 11.0% 6.7% 4.0% 4.4% 13.2% 14.4% 15.6% 4.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.8%
05-2020 12.4% 4.5% 4.6% 0.6% 5.4% 4.2% 8.3% -0.3% -6.8% -0.5% -3.8% 3.2% 4.7% 0.8% 2.4% -4.3%
06-2020 -4.6% 1.8% 2.5% 7.0% 1.6% 3.9% 1.9% 4.6% 6.4% 6.2% 7.7% -0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 6.3% 3.2%
07-2020 -3.2% 5.5% 4.7% 8.4% -1.1% 6.7% -2.6% 10.9% 0.7% 9.0% 7.7% -0.8% 6.8% 5.0% -4.5% -2.3%
08-2020 10.4% 7.0% 6.5% 2.1% 7.9% 3.4% 6.6% 2.6% 2.4% -0.6% 2.7% -1.3% -4.9% 1.7% -0.7% 0.1%
09-2020 2.7% -3.9% -3.6% -1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% -5.2% -6.8% -0.6% -1.5% -5.6% -1.3% -7.0% -0.3% -2.6%
10-2020 2.2% -2.8% -3.1% 2.0% 0.9% -2.6% -0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.2% 4.1% -3.4% -2.5% 5.3% 7.8% -1.7%
11-2020 8.4% 10.8% 12.7% 9.2% 4.0% 14.3% 15.0% 5.2% 9.3% 9.4% 11.4% 17.9% 6.5% 9.4% 7.4% 15.8%
12-2020 10.0% 3.7% 4.1% 7.2% 5.6% 10.9% 3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 7.4% 8.2% 2.9% 4.1% 6.5% 5.1% 1.3%
01-2021 -4.3% -1.1% -1.1% 3.0% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% -3.1% 1.2% -3.7% -2.0% -7.4% 2.1%
02-2021 10.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6%
03-2021 2.0% 4.2% 3.1% -1.7% -0.1% 1.6% 0.7% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.0% -0.3% -4.1% -5.2% 7.3%
04-2021 4.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.4% 6.3% 2.8% -1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 6.9% -1.5% -0.3% 1.8% 0.2% -1.1% 1.7%
05-2021 7.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 4.9% 1.5% -2.8% 6.5% 0.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.0% -1.7%
06-2021 6.1% 2.2% 1.4% -0.1% 2.5% 2.9% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% 4.0% 1.0% -0.4% -3.2% 0.6% 4.1% -1.1%
07-2021 -7.0% 2.8% 2.4% -5.8% -0.8% -2.9% -5.2% -5.4% -9.9% -2.9% 0.1% -4.1% -2.5% 1.4% -9.2% 1.2%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.2 – VN-Index and key driving events
(Pts)
1,500
1
The Government promulgates Decree A second social security 2
1,400 52/2021/ND-CP on extension of time limit for package, worth
payment of value-added tax, corporate income VND27,000bn, is
tax, personal income tax, and land rental in 2021. proposed. 4
3
State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular
5 7 13
1,300 03/2021/TTNHNN on April 2, 2021,
amending Cir. 01/2020/TT-NHNN to extend Ho Chi Minh City
implements social 8
debt moratorium for loans hit by COVID-19
distancing from 31 9, 10,
and allow banks to apply 3-year provisioning 6 11, 12
May
roadmap for these loans.
1,200 Fourth
Record number of new COVID-19
accounts opened; resurgence
Daily turnover has
continuously recorded new
1,100 peaks since May 2020 Key events in July:
1) The Government issues Resolution No. 68/NQ-CP on policies to support
employees and employers facing difficulties due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with a
support package worth VND26,000bn.
2) New trading system jointly built by Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and FPT
Third COVID-19
1,000 Corporation officially begins operations.
wave: New
3) Ho Chi Minh City implements social distancing measures according to Directive
cases of COVID-19
16 for 15 days from July 9, 2021.
community
RCEP is 4) Vietnam officially launches its largest-ever vaccination campaign with the goal of
infection appear
officially injecting about 75mn people with 150mn injections in 2H21 and early-2022. The
in Hai Duong and
900 signed campaign aims to vaccinate over 70% of the population by end-1Q22.
Quang Ninh
SBV cuts 5) Hanoi suspends non-essential business activities from July 13.
refinancing 6) 19 Southern provinces and cities implement social distancing according to
rate to 4% Directive 16CT-TTg. Hanoi stops all non-essential services from July 19.
7) The Minister of Finance promulgates Circular No. 57/2021, a roadmap to
Second COVID-19 rearranging the trading markets of stock, bond, derivatives, and other securities.
800
wave: Pandemic EVFTA officially The Circular took effect from July 20, 2021.
recurrence in Da Nang comes into 8) The Government issues Resolution No. 78/NQ-CP dated July 20, 2021 on COVID-
effect 19 prevention and containment.
9) Opening of the first session of the 15th National Assembly
10) US decides not to impose tariffs against Vietnam
700
11) Hanoi implements social distancing measures from July 24.
12) The Ministry of Finance proposes an additional COVID-19 support package of
about VND24tr.
13) Bac Giang province has returned to a new normal since July 29.
600
Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21

II.3 – Top market movers
Retailing, • The fall-off was spread across industries, with Banks, Real Estate, and Materials being the main drags.
Software & Services shine • Bucking the trend, Retailing contributed the most to the VN-Index’s upside. Remarkably, Software & Services chalked up a twelfth-
straight monthly gain.
Most industries suffered corrections last month, led by Banks and Real Estate (unit: Index points)
GICS Industry group 07-2020 08-2020 09-2020 10-2020 11-2020 12-2020 01-2021 02-2021 03-2021 04-2021 05-2021 06-2021 07-2021
Banks -8.58 21.84 6.77 -2.22 27.46 30.86 -20.19 42.84 11.42 22.23 73.60 19.84 -49.73
Real Estate 0.30 9.31 0.95 12.56 8.55 17.88 8.19 19.69 6.50 29.33 -8.26 29.72 -33.01
Materials -2.39 6.90 3.50 5.24 12.29 18.91 -8.82 13.00 2.44 8.07 18.15 7.60 -8.19
Utilities -2.65 5.54 -0.92 -1.68 7.94 4.63 -7.08 7.59 0.87 -4.11 -1.37 6.35 -3.17
Capital Goods -0.43 3.38 1.15 -1.32 3.49 4.32 1.22 3.16 0.66 0.25 0.52 0.76 -2.05
Energy -1.00 3.79 -0.39 -0.55 0.98 1.76 -1.50 3.77 -1.08 -2.11 1.85 0.40 -1.87
Insurance -1.13 1.68 0.21 0.32 1.05 2.33 -2.30 0.52 0.14 -0.43 -0.43 1.00 -1.29
Diversified Financials -0.70 1.03 0.86 0.41 1.39 5.44 -1.56 1.87 0.55 -0.10 4.55 4.82 -1.05
Transportation -3.35 2.94 1.92 -1.22 4.16 3.00 -1.46 4.52 0.15 -2.82 -3.18 3.21 -0.94
Consumer Durables & Apparel -0.48 0.94 0.22 0.73 0.88 0.63 0.90 0.55 1.25 0.55 -0.16 0.54 -0.52
Pharmaceuticals -0.04 0.81 0.06 -0.15 0.32 0.35 -0.15 0.20 0.18 -0.09 0.09 0.35 -0.33
Consumer Services -0.30 0.04 0.05 -0.09 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.50 -0.15 -0.13 -0.27 0.15 -0.12
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -3.04 10.57 7.20 7.48 3.18 6.15 -12.42 9.00 -3.46 -4.54 -0.04 5.00 -0.07
Automobiles & Components -0.10 0.13 0.20 -0.07 0.09 0.17 0.13 0.10 0.13 -0.09 0.02 0.11 -0.05
Media & Entertainment -0.05 0.05 -0.05 -0.02 -0.01 0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.10 -0.09 -0.01 -0.05
Telecommunication Services -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.07 -0.04
Health Care Equipment & Services 0.00 0.05 0.02 -0.03 0.01 0.04 -0.05 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01
Commercial & Professional Services -0.09 0.08 -0.02 -0.01 0.12 0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.05 0.01
Household & Personal Products 0.00 0.40 0.15 -0.11 0.25 0.16 -0.09 0.66 0.14 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02
Technology Hardware & Equipment 0.01 0.09 0.08 -0.01 0.27 0.10 -0.09 0.29 0.27 -0.07 0.11 0.10 0.23
Software & Services -0.32 1.20 0.01 0.26 0.83 0.95 0.76 2.88 0.41 0.61 3.65 0.75 1.61
Retailing -0.75 2.53 1.43 0.02 1.49 0.56 1.86 0.34 -0.62 1.51 -0.31 1.66 1.73
VN-INDEX -26.72 83.26 23.56 20.26 77.61 100.79 -47.26 111.86 20.00 47.95 88.66 80.50 -98.50

II.3 – Top market movers (cont’d.)
Stellar performers in • Banks mainly caused the VN-Index’s drawdown, with industry-wide correction at VCB (-16%), CTG (-16%), BID (-13%), VPB (-10%), VIB
(-16%), and MBB (-10%).
July:
• In terms of Real Estate, the “Vin-family” trio (VIC: -10%; VHM: -8%; VRE: -13%), NVL (-14%), and BCM (-23%) weighed heavily on the
MSN, MWG, FPT, index. Exceptionally, KDH (+8%), NLG (+12%), VPI (+9%), HDC (+15%), SJS (+9%), and CRE (+14%) cushioned the blow.
DGC, KDH, HDG, • HPG (-8%) and GVR (-4%) were two main drags in Materials, while DGC (+17%) and DPM (+7%) outperformed.
DGW, GMD, HAH, • In F&B, MSN (+20%) partly offset the loss of VNM (-5%) and SAB (-6%).
and DPM • On the positive side, MWG (+8%) and FRT (+38%) in Retailing, FPT (+7%) in Software & Services, DGW (+15%) in Technology
Hardware & Equipment were the main leading contributors. In addition, Marine Ports & Services, like GMD (+7%) and HAH (+45%),
far outstripped the performance of industry peers.
Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors
Price change Index impact Price change Index impact

Industry Ticker Industry Ticker
(% MoM) (points) (% MoM) (points)
Food, Beverage & Tobacco MSN 20.3 7.2 Banks VCB -15.8 -18.4
Retailing MWG 8.0 1.6 Real Estate VIC -9.9 -10.8
Software & Services FPT 6.8 1.5 Real Estate VHM -8.2 -8.6
Materials DGC 17.0 0.6 Banks CTG -15.7 -8.3
Real Estate KDH 8.4 0.5 Real Estate NVL -14.0 -6.8
Capital Goods HDG 22.0 0.4 Banks BID -13.0 -6.7
Real Estate NLG 12.1 0.4 Materials HPG -8.2 -5.1
Banks ACB 1.3 0.3 Banks VPB -9.9 -4.4
Transportation GMD 7.2 0.3 Real Estate BCM -23.2 -3.5
Technology Hardware & Equipment DGW 14.8 0.2 Banks VIB -15.9 -3.3
Retailing FRT 38.2 0.2 Banks MBB -10.0 -3.3
Materials DPM 7.4 0.2 Real Estate VRE -12.9 -2.5
Real Estate VPI 9.2 0.2 Food, Beverage & Tobacco VNM -4.8 -2.4
Transportation HAH 44.8 0.2 Utilities GAS -3.7 -1.8
Real Estate HDC 14.8 0.2 Food, Beverage & Tobacco SAB -6.0 -1.7
Transportation TMS 14.4 0.2 Banks TCB -3.0 -1.5
Real Estate SJS 9.2 0.2 Insurance BVH -12.5 -1.5
Real Estate CRE 13.8 0.2 Materials GVR -3.7 -1.4
Capital Goods GEX 3.2 0.1 Banks EIB -12.9 -1.3
Capital Goods VPG 37.8 0.1 Transportation VJC -7.0 -1.2
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.4 – Market liquidity heatmap
• Negatively, market liquidity was relatively low, with the average trading value dropping more than 15% MoM to below VND19tr per
Market liquidity was day.
subdued • Bucking the trend, Retailing, Technology Hardware & Equipment, and Software & Services attracted the most market cash flow, as
these industries boasted the highest scores, according to our liquidity tracker.
Market liquidity heatmap
Trading value
GICS industry group 07-2020 08-2020 09-2020 10-2020 11-2020 12-2020 01-2021 02-2021 03-2021 04-2021 05-2021 06-2021 07-2021
(% MoM)
Retailing 100% 96.8%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 100% 55.2%
Software & Services 100% 43.8%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 100% 26.5%
Automobiles & Components 100% 9.7%
Materials 92% -1.0%
Diversified Financials 92% -9.8%
Transportation 83% 2.4%
Real Estate 83% -10.6%
Banks 83% -17.5%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 75% -14.1%
Insurance 75% -23.2%
Pharmaceuticals 75% -46.0%
Energy 67% -54.7%
Utilities 58% -25.7%
Capital Goods 50% -23.0%
VN-INDEX 83% -15.4%


II.5 – Foreign investment review
Foreign investors pivoted to • Foreign investors were the net buyers of US$209mn (~VND4.7tr) in July, thus narrowing the YTD net outflow to US$1.3bn.
net buying after months of • Meanwhile, offshore investors continued to withdraw from other Asian markets (Korea: US$4.2bn; Taiwan: US$4.2bn; India:
US$1.7bn; Thailand: US$522mn; Malaysia: US$318mn; and Philippines: US$183mn), apart from Indonesia (+US$67mn).
net selling
Foreign net buying/selling by year and month (unit: US$mn) Capital flows of foreign investors in Asian markets
Market
1,887 7-2021 2021 YTD 2020
1,421 1,163 (US$mn)
801
349 173 1 156 134 155 100 182
Vietnam 209 -1,321 -876
-345
-876
-1,321 S. Korea -4,222 -21,259 -20,082
2007 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2021
(YTD) India -1,706 6,378 23,373
Taiwan -4,210 -17,314 -15,997
Indonesia 67 1,259 -3,220
Malaysia -318 -1,345 -5,782
Philippines -183 -1,727 -2,513
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Thailand -522 -2,991 -8,287
2020 2021

II.5 – Foreign investment review (cont’d)
Top net-buying stocks: • In July, NVL (VND1.4tr), VHM (VND1.15tr), STB (VND1.1tr), and MBB (VND1tr) were top draws. By contrast, overseas investors were
heavy sellers VIC (VND2.3tr) and VPB (VND1.1tr).
NVL, VHM, and STB
Top net-buying stocks (Unit: VNDbn) Top net-selling stocks (Unit: VNDbn)
Industry Ticker 7-2021 2021 YTD Industry Ticker 7-2021 2021 YTD
Real Estate NVL 1,376.9 3,029.1 Real Estate VIC -2,269.2 -1,603.4
Real Estate VHM 1,148.0 4,128.1 Banks VPB -1,079.4 -5,608.9
Banks STB 1,115.9 2,433.8 Banks CTG -866.3 -6,916.0
Banks MBB 1,039.5 -1,358.0 Real Estate KDH -291.0 -1,364.6
Materials HPG 857.4 -12,113.7 Food, Beverage & Tobacco KDC -131.1 -857.5
Food, Beverage & Tobacco MSN 687.5 337.8 Food, Beverage & Tobacco SAB -120.1 -430.9
Diversified Financials SSI 630.6 191.1 Real Estate PDR -86.3 966.2
Food, Beverage & Tobacco VNM 488.7 -5,710.6 ETF E1VFVN30 -79.3 618.1
Capital Goods GEX 463.0 69.5 Retailing FRT -75.2 -154.3
Real Estate AGG 382.1 111.4 Insurance BVH -72.2 -694.2
Banks HDB 264.9 610.3 Utilities NT2 -54.4 -306.8
Real Estate DXG 264.8 -867.1 Materials DCM -51.7 -104.0
Utilities GAS 196.2 -501.1 Materials PTB -47.4 -31.2
Materials DGC 192.1 657.6 Diversified Financials FIT -38.4 -46.5
Materials HSG 179.5 -2.2 Insurance BMI -38.4 -63.9
Banks VCB 164.1 -460.2 Transportation HAH -34.0 -86.0
Energy PVT 156.7 53.6 Real Estate LHG -33.8 31.5
Banks BID 122.4 -1,236.6 Materials NKG -33.2 106.7
Banks MSB 73.9 168.9 Materials PHR -33.0 -166.9
Capital Goods VCG 72.3 235.9 Transportation HVN -32.5 -52.8

III. Vietnam stock market prospects
• Despite the impact of the pandemic over the first two-thirds of 2Q21, base effects drove impressive YoY
growth. As of July 30, more than 70% of HOSE’s listed firms released 2Q financial reports (accounting for about
92% of total market cap). Accordingly, we estimate after-tax profit growth of more than 59% YoY for 2Q21, and
about 69% YoY for 1H21.
• The time needed to contain the outbreak is a key risk factor to monitor; the more time it takes, the more severe
the economic impact. Optimistically, we kept our projection for this year's EPS growth at around 33%, based on
the assumption that the outbreak will come to an end in end-August. Otherwise, in our worst-case assumption,
we lower the 2021 EPS growth expectation to 28% in case it takes another three months to contain the
outbreak. Correspondingly, we adjusted our projection for the VN-Index to the range of 1,222–1,440 pts, with
the base-case target of 1,350 pts. Of note, current valuations levels are not burdensome after the July
correction, in terms of both historical and peer comparisons.
• Thus far, domestic consumption is the most vulnerable during the lockdown; otherwise, FDI, exports, and public
investment become the main drivers for economic growth. As such, Industrial Real Estate, Marine Ports &
Logistics, Exporters, and Construction Materials firms will stand to benefit. Furthermore, based on the 2020
business results, we highlight Software & Services, Materials, Banks, and Diversified Financials as “immunized
against COVID-19”.

III.1 – Earnings growth expectations
• Despite the fourth wave of COVID-19 that began at end-April, companies still posted impressive 2Q21 earnings results. As of July 30, more
Despite COVID-19’s impact, than 70% of HOSE’s listed firms released 2Q financial reports (accounting for about 92% of total market cap). Accordingly, we estimate
companies still posted after-tax profit growth of more than 59% YoY for 2Q21, and about 69% YoY for 1H21, with most industries having maintained their
momentum with double-digit growth rates, except for Consumer Services (2Q21: -48% YoY), Insurance (2Q21: -16% YoY), and F&B (2Q21:
impressive 2Q21 earnings +2% YoY).
growth • Vietnam is in the grip of a fourth wave of COVID-19, which is likely to weigh on 2H21 business results across a broad swath of industries.
Optimistically, we kept our projection for this year's EPS growth at around 33%, based upon the assumption that the outbreak will come
to an end in end-August. Otherwise, in our worst-case assumption, we lower the 2021 EPS growth expectation to 28% in case it takes
another three months to contain the outbreak.
Summary earnings growth for listed firms on HOSE (% YoY)

% of total
GICS Industry group 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 (E)
market cap
Banks 33% 7% 24% 7% 28% 76% 35%
Real Estate 24% 25% -42% 34% 1% 42% 123%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 11% -33% 9% -10% -15% 16% 2%
Materials 10% 20% 32% 67% 118% 192% 192%
Utilities 5.2% -29% -35% -41% -7% -2% 21%
Capital Goods 3.5% -18% -5% 20% 9% 99% 38%
Transportation 3.3% -184% -231% -200% -28% -33% 154%
Diversified Financials 1.9% -100% 127% 48% 93% 217196% 67%
Retailing 1.8% -2% -29% 9% 23% 29% 37%
Software & Services 1.7% 20% 15% -3% 26% 21% 13%
Energy 1.6% -233% -10% -11% 10% 144% 32%
Insurance 0.9% -50% 81% 29% 170% 149% -16%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 0.9% -12% 17% 25% 93% 30% 319%
Pharmaceuticals 0.7% 15% 12% 15% -6% 8% 14%
Automobiles & Components 0.2% 89% -16% 20% 8% 26% 46%
Consumer Services 0.2% -227% -98% -99% 284% 57% -48%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 0.1% 80% 45% 44% 69% 137% 140%
HOSE 100% -20% -7% -3% 19% 82% 59%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Fiinpro

III.1 – Earnings growth expectations (cont’d)
• Although the credit growth of 5.47% YTD in 1H21 was impressive (2.45% over the same period last year), the additional credit growth
Banks limit which was recently granted to the banks have partly shown the caution of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) towards the money
market. For instance, Military Bank (MBB) is approved for a new credit growth quota of 15% in 2021 (compared with 20% in 2020), while
Techcombank (TCB) is assigned new credit growth of 17% (compared with over 23% in 2020).
• Vietnam's GDP in 1H21 increased by 5.64%, according to the General Statistics Office, roughly equivalent to credit growth. Accordingly,
the bank credit to the private sector as percent of GDP remained at approximately 140%. This is a warning level of the economy's high
dependence on credit. However, GDP growth will slow down in 2H21, due to the impact of more widely applied social distancing
measures, especially in key major cities. We think credit growth for the whole industry in 2021 is in the range of 9–10%, higher than the
SBV's expected growth rate in the worst-case scenario of 7–8%.
• Asset quality is not expected to see significant changes, as banks are still allowed to restructure debts for customers affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic until the end of 2021.
• The banking sector is still a bright spot in terms of profitability amid the pandemic, with sector profits generally expected to maintain
double-digit growth in 2021, thanks to positive business results in 1H21. With banks starting to cut interest rates to support customers in
the last five months of 2021, as requested by the SBV, we expect to see strong divergence between banks, with small and medium-sized
commercial banks with good asset quality forecast to have more impressive profit growth.
• In our opinion, the current valuation of the banking industry is quite reasonable, with an average market-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.1x,
down 11% compared with the peak of 2.3–2.4x. Thus, a short-term, deep correction is unlikely to happen, and a relatively fair valuation
for this group is about 1.9–2x P/B.

• In 1H21, brokerage stocks, led by SSI (+62%), HCM (+75%), VCI (+52%), and VND (+133%), outperformed the VN-Index (+17.5%). These
Diversified financials companies are taking advantage of the market’s rapidly increasing demand from retails investors and are likely to achieve their targets
for revenue and profit. These companies made their business plans based on market liquidity of VND15tr on a daily basis; however, the
average daily trading value on the VN-Index since the beginning of this year has exceeded VND17tr. Furthermore, the number of new
open trading accounts has been consistently peaking month by month (June: 140,051 new open trading accounts, the highest number
ever). As 2Q21 financial reports are released, they are showing healthy results in terms of profit before tax (PBT), with SSI recording
VND1,232bn (achieving 65% of the full-year target); HCM: VND753bn (50%); VCI: VND868bn (69%); and, notably, VND: VND1,135bn
(103%) in just the first six months.
• However, valuation levels are burdensome. In 1H21, brokerage stocks were up as much as 3 to 4 times compared with the VN-Index;
notably, VND’s return was seven times that of the benchmark gauge. Due to their unique features and high betas, these stocks tend to
retreat in tandem with market corrections, and display higher volatility. Our top picks remain the market leaders in the industry, namely
SSI, HCM, VCI, and VND. However, the potential upside in 2H21 may not look as attractive as it was in 1H21.

• In 1H21, the domestic market played a key role in the steel industry’s growth. Moreover, the EU, North America, and China are in the
Steel process of removing social distancing measures, which should greatly benefit Vietnam's steel industry. Steel output in 6M2021 reached
15.9mn MT (+37% YoY). According to data of Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), export volume reached a new peak of 3.4mn MT in 1H21
(+84.4% YoY).
• The impressive business results of steel enterprises in 1H21 were also due to high steel prices. From December 2020, the price of
construction steel was VND11.2mn/MT, but has increased by 53% to VND17.2mn/MT in June 2021, before dropping slightly to
VND16.8mn in July 2021.
• We believe that a too-high increase in steel prices will have a negative effect on the construction industry and public investment in 2H21.
We revise our growth rate forecast for the construction industry in 2021 downward from 12% to 8%. The negative impact of the COVID-
19 pandemic was significant, as the Vietnamese government issued strict social distancing measures in July, putting a halt to many
construction projects. In the worst-case scenario, we foresee a gloomy outlook for the construction industry in 2H21 if the pandemic is
not brought under control before 4Q21. In fact, many construction projects have been postponed, with businesses waiting to offset the
cost of materials terms from developers, which could slow any progress for 6–18 months.
• Thus, we assess that there will be a growth divergence. For galvanized steel manufacturers, such as HSG and NKG, we maintain positive
recommendations, thanks to export/total revenue ratios of over 60%. For domestic construction steel companies, such as HPG or POM,
we think the impact will be greater.
• However, with impressive business results in 1H21, we believe that 2021 will still be a year of supreme growth for companies in the
industry. Besides, we believe the post-COVID-19 era will be good for the steel industry from 2022 onwards, thanks to planned new public
investment from the Ministry of Investment and Planning (MOIT), which is expected to reach about 5% of GDP.
• Vietnam's steel industry is currently at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 9.2x and 5.6x, respectively, 36% lower than the average of the Asian steel
industry (P/E of 12.6x; EV/EBITDA of 9.1x), which is an attractive valuation.

• The seaport industry continued to benefit from macro and industry elements. Import-export activities and seaport clearance grew well.
Marine ports & services In 1H21, the accumulated import-export turnover reached US$317.7bn (+37.7% YoY). The southern provinces continued to lead in
import-export growth, with an average growth rate of 42.7% YoY. Seaport clearance container volume maintained strong upward
momentum, with total volume of 12.4mn TEUs (+23.7% YoY). Unsurprisingly, the revenue and operating profit of listed seaport
companies in 1H21 jumped compared with 1H21 figures, even exceeding those of 1H19.
• The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam will likely have a negative effect on Vietnam's production and import-export activities in
3Q21. Vietnam’s PMI in June fell to 44.1, the lowest level in the past 12 months. Accordingly, both the revenue and profit growth of
seaport enterprises are expected to decelerate. However, we expect the medium and long term import-export growth trend to be
maintained. FDI continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than before; this supports the growth of seaport clearance, as FDI enterprises
account for a large proportion of import-export turnover.

• After the robust growth period of 2019–2020, industrial real estate rental prices showed signs of slowing in 1H21. According to data from
Industrial Real Estate Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL), rental prices in the southern provinces in 1H21 increased by an average of 8.2% YoY to
US$111/m2/lease term; and that of northern provinces increased by 8.1% YoY to US$107/m2/lease term.
• In 2Q21, the industrial real estate market recorded the most successful transactions in the Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, home to Sothern
Vietnam’s largest seaport, Cai Mep - Thi Vai port. The average rental price in Ba Ria-Vung Tau is about US$80/m2/lease cycle, the most
competitive price in the Southeast region.
• The fourth Covid-19 outbreak is directly affecting businesses in existing industrial parks, while at the same time slowing down investors’
surveys and searches for land leases. The epidemic is affecting not just Vietnam, but the whole of Southeast Asia and India, which
compete directly for investment capital with Vietnam.
• We expect the pandemic to directly reduce the profit of the industrial zone real estate companies in 2021; however, land bank that
cannot be leased this year is expected to generate a sharp increase in profit in 2022. We focus on businesses that possess large land
banks with reasonable accumulated value; these could generate good business results in 2021 and growth from 2022.

• On the positive side, we expect the government to make amendments to the land law and speed up the legal approval process. However,
Residential Real Estate the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, which has a negative impact on the economy in general, will also lead to limited demand for the real
estate industry. According to our assessment, although the real estate market has yet to show any signs of a bubble, the price of real
estate in the market is no longer cheap. Thus, we should not only consider the revenue and profit factors of real estate companies in
2021, but we should also focus on companies with a wide sales network and ample capital to help in the long run.

• The fourth wave of COVID-19 and containment measures have seriously affected the pockets and living habits of middle- and lower-
Food & Beverage middle-income households in Vietnam. This leads to a large change in the priority order of household spending on food & beverage
categories, resulting in different impacts on business groups.
• In that context, we evaluate essential packaged foods as a beneficiary group in 2H21. The application of strict isolation measures and
travel restrictions by the southern provinces from mid-July 2021 led to increased demand for food storage. Traditional markets in the Ho
Chi Minh City, as well as in other cities (such as Can Tho, Binh Duong, and Ha Noi) were also forced to close for periods of time, leading to
a sudden increase in sales at supermarkets and convenience stores.
• On the other hand, efforts to vaccinate against COVID-19 in many countries around the world have achieved positive results, bringing
about the recovery of export markets. The US has seen business revival, thanks to achieving full vaccination for 49% of the population
(data as of July 20, 2021). As a result, the US market's food import demand has had an excellent recovery in the first six months of 2021,
and we expect the situation to be even better in 2H21.

• According to Vietnam Electricity Corporation (EVN), electricity consumption increased by 8.36% YoY in 1H21. In 3Q21, electricity demand
Utilities will be negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect output growth to recover in 4Q21, thus fulfilling EVN’s 5.2% YoY
growth target for FY21.
• Hydropower generators were the biggest beneficiaries, thanks to favorable hydrology and a low-cost power source. The water levels of
some of the main rivers in the Central and Southern regions increased continually from 2H20, thus boosting the hydropower group’s
business performance. Based on seasonal cycles in rainfall statistics, we will see improvements in hydropower outcomes in FY21 and
1H22.

• Software and Services are expected to recover in the 2021–2025 period, with business software, IT equipment and services projected to
Software and Services enjoy the strongest recoveries, thanks to: 1) Enterprises/organizations increasing focus on optimizing operational efficiency, creating an
improved and more comfortable working environment, especially the as COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in rapid changes to work and
consumption patterns; 2) demand for digital transformation of domestic businesses has been accelerating, in line with the government’s
policies; and 3) Vietnam's software exports have maintained solid growth momentum, with the advantage of labor resources and the
increasing consolidation of Vietnam’s worldwide software outsourcing. Accordingly, we forecast the EPS growth of listed companies in
the Software and Services industry to reach 22% YoY in 2021, recovering from 7% YoY in 2020.

III.2 – Historical valuations
Valuation levels are not • After a strong correction and partial 2Q21 earnings results, the current P/E of the VN-Index is 16.8x, under the 10-year average plus
one standard deviation (SD) of 17.3x. Looking back, the current P/E level of the VN-Index is 31% below the historical high set in April
burdensome 2018 (i.e., 22x). Thus, valuation levels are not burdensome.
• In the meantime, the valuations of the US, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Singapore markets are either approaching or
exceeding their 10-year P/E average plus two SDs.
P/E of VN-Index: 10-year band chart 10-year P/E band chart of VN-Index and other markets
(x) (x)
P/E -2SD -1SD 10-year average +1SD +2SD 10-yr Avg +/-2 SD 10-year average Current P/E
22
35
20 20.0
30
18
17.3 25
16
20
14.6
14
15
12 11.8
10
10
9.1 5
8
0
6
Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 17 Jul 19 Jul 21

III.3 – Relative valuations
Vietnam’s market has • After a strong correction in July, the VN-Index increased nearly 19% YTD, exceeding the performances of other markets, such as the
US (+18%), Taiwan (+17%), Korea (+11%), and Singapore (+11%). Also, MSCI frontier markets (FM) and developed markets (DM)
relatively attractive valuation, increased by 12%, and 18%, respectively.
with high ROE and EPS growth • With high ROE and expectations for robust EPS growth, we believe Vietnam’s market valuation is relatively attractive.
prospects
Vietnam’s market has relatively high ROE, with attractive P/E Vietnam’s market is expected to enjoy high EPS growth, attractive forward P/E
17 Korea
US 68
Vietnam
60
15
Taiwan
MSCI FM 52
13
MSCI EM MSCI DM India 44 Taiwan
11 Hong Kong Japan 36

China
ROE (%)
28
9 Malaysia 2019-2021 EPS CAGR (%)
MSCI EM India
20 Vietnam MSCI DM
Korea US
China Japan
7 12 Malaysia Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
4 MSCI FM Thailand
5
Singapore
-4 Hong Kong Singapore
Philippines
3 -12
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P/E (x) Forward P/E (x)

III.4 – Market valuation
• According to Bloomberg stats, the market consensus for VN-Index’s EPS growth in 2021, 2022, and 2023 are 35%, 18%, and 17%,
Reasonable range of VN- respectively. Overall, the market has confidence that 2021 earnings growth will remain unscathed.
Index from 1,222 to 1,440 • Despite the impact of the pandemic over the first two-thirds of 2Q21, base effects drove impressive YoY growth, with estimated after-
tax profit growth of more than 59% YoY for 2Q21, and about 69% YoY for 1H21. The time needed to contain the outbreak is a key risk
pts, with base-case target factor to monitor; the more time it takes, the more severe the economic impact. Optimistically, we kept our projection for this year's
of 1,350 pts EPS growth at around 33%, based upon the assumption that the outbreak will come to an end in end-August. Otherwise, in our worst-
case assumption, we lower the 2021 EPS growth expectation to 28%, in case it takes another three months to contain the outbreak.
Correspondingly, we adjusted our projection for the VN-Index to the range of 1,222–1,440 pts, with the base-case target of 1,350 pts.
• We also forecast market volatility to increase as Vietnam continues to struggle with escalating COVID-19 numbers.
• Thus far, domestic consumption is the most vulnerable during the lockdown; otherwise, FDI, exports, and public investment become
the main drivers for economic growth. As such, industrial real estate, marine ports & logistics, exporters, and construction materials
firms will stand to benefit. Furthermore, based on the 2020 business result, we highlight Software & Services, Materials, Banks, and
Diversified Financials as “immunized against COVID-19”.
Vietnam EPS growth: Our projection vs. market consensus Reasonable range of VN-Index from 1,200 to 1,500 pts
(% YoY)
Fair P/E
37% Consensus Our projection
35% 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
33% 26% 1,043 1,123 1,203 1,284 1,364 1,444 1,524
2021 EPS growth expectation

31%
27% 1,051 1,132 1,213 1,294 1,375 1,455 1,536
29%
28% 1,059 1,141 1,222 1,304 1,385 1,467 1,548
27%
30% 1,076 1,159 1,242 1,324 1,407 1,490 1,573
25%
23% 32% 1,093 1,177 1,261 1,345 1,429 1,513 1,597
21%
33% 1,101 1,186 1,270 1,355 1,440 1,524 1,609
19%
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 34% 1,109 1,194 1,280 1,365 1,450 1,536 1,621
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

III.5 – Upcoming market events
World events Vietnam's events
Date Country Event Date Event
VNFIN LEAD’s member change takes effect;

8/6/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 8/2/2021 members’ information updates of VNFINSELECT and VNDIAMOND take
effect.
August
8/5/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 8/11/2021 Announcement of MSCI Frontier Markets Index
8/19/2021 US FOMC Minutes 8/19/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
8/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 23−27 August, 2021 Restructuring of iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF
9/7/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 06−17 September, 2021 Announcement of FTSE Vietnam ETF portfolio restructuring in 3Q21
Announcement of VanEck Vectors Vietnam (VNM) ETF portfolio
9/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 13−17 September, 2021
restructuring in 3Q21
September
9/22/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 9/16/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
9/23/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 20−24 September, 2021 Announcement of annual FTSE Russell country classification review
9/23/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
Announcement of members’ information updates of VNFIN LEAD and
10/5/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 10/18/2021
VNDIAMOND; announcement of VNFINSELECT’s member change
10/14/2021 US FOMC Minutes 10/18/2021 Completion of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio restructuring
October
10/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 10/19/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
10/28/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 10/30/2021 VFMVN30 ETF portfolio weight update
10/2/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
Oct/Nov ASEAN Business and Investment Members’ information updates of VNDIAMOND and VNFIN LEAD take
ASEAN 11/01/2021
2021 Summit effect
11/4/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11/01/2021 VNFINSELECT’s member update takes effect
November 11/4/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 11/11/2021 Completion of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio restructuring
11/22/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 11/19/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
11/25/2021 US FOMC Minutes 22−26 November, 2021 iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF restructuring
Nov-21 G-20 G-20 Summit
12/7/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 04−17 December, 2021 Announcement of FTSE Vietnam ETF portfolio restructuring in 4Q21
Announcement of VanEck Vectors Vietnam (VNM) ETF portfolio
12/16/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11−17 December, 2021
restructuring in 4Q21
December
12/16/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 12/17/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
12/17/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
12/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y
Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

IV. Stock recommendations
Investment themes Industry 12-month target price (VND) and potential upside
KBC SZC
Industrial/Rental
Post-Covid-19 demand 56,600 49,100
Real Estate
64% 22%
IJC DIG PDR NVL VHM

Residential
Post-Covid-19 demand 36,800 33,800 116,500 131,700 128,500
Real Estate
50% 35% 29% 26% 21%
HPG HSG NKG
Commodity price surge Material 57,300 52,200 51,000
21% 41% 48%
POW PC1 NT2 SJD
Post-Covid-19 demand Utilities 14,000 29,900 22,500 19,200
31% 15% 23% 12%
BID ACB VPB
Post-Covid-19 demand Bank 52,000 41,800 71,500
29% 25% 26%
STK VHC
Others 48,500 45,400
15% 10%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (closing prices on July 28, 2021)

Kinh Bac City Development Share Holding Corporation (KBC VN) Top pick
Valuable land fund set to pay off
Investment points
• As of December 31, 2020, the industrial land of Kinh Bac City Development Share Holding Corporation (KBC) was 4,713 ha. The
(Maintain) BUY
IP scale of KBC accounts for nearly 5% of the country's industrial land area. Each KBC IP has an average size of over 200 ha.
• In addition to the IPs, KBC's urban land will also contribute greatly to the company's business results. Currently, KBC owns an
Target price urban land bank of 917.9 ha countrywide. The new Phuc Ninh (114 ha) and Trang Due (42 ha) urban areas are completed and
56,600 can be put into operation. Another important asset is the Trang Cat urban area (584 ha), which will be a key project of KBC from
(VND, 12M)
FY22 onwards.
• The Trang Cat land fund promises big returns. As the land was accumulated by KBC 10 years ago, the cost of the Trang Cat urban
Current price
34,450 area is relatively low. KBC expects infrastructure investment to be VND11,328.8bn, while the value of the area is projected to be
(7/30/21)
about VND60,000bn. The government has approved a masterplan of 1/500 and clearance of 511/585 ha for the project. As per
company guidance, KBC may sell a part of this project to other investors and obtain high earnings in FY22.
Expected return 64.5% • For FY21, KBC issued high guidance, with consolidated revenue of VND6,600bn and NPAT of VND2,000bn. The guidance is based
on the plan to lease the land in Quang Chau (76.5 ha), Nam Son Hap Linh (124.7 ha), and Tan Phu Trung (20 ha). The company
also plans to book revenue from industrial parks, such as Phuc Ninh and Trang Due.
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,024
• Based on a comparison of P/E and P/B to peers either with existing land funds or plans to expand their land funds in the next
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 2,263 two years, such as BCM, LHG, SZC, NTC and TIP, we determined the fair value of KBC at VND56,600/share (upside +64.5%) and
recommend Buy for the stock.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 803
P/E (21F, x) 8
Market cap (VND bn) 17,827
Shares outstanding (mn) 470 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 65.0 Revenue (VNDbn) 2,491 3,210 2,151 5,958 6,554 6,882
OP (VNDbn) 1,162 1,533 450 3,029 3,736 3,552
Foreign ownership (%) 19.1
OP margin (%) 46.6 47.8 20.9 50.8 57.0 51.6
52-week low 12,350 NP (VNDbn) 746 918 224 2,024 2,409 2,218
52-week high 47,000 EPS (VND) 1,588 1,955 477 4,308 5,129 4,721
ROE (%) 8.6 10.0 2.13 17.07 16.90 13.38
(%) 1M 6M 12M 24.6 19.9 81.78 8.0 7.60 8.26
P/E (x)
Absolute -13.1 -6.1 177.8 P/B (x) 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0
Relative -5.4 -27.9 113.7 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Sonadezi Chau Duc Shareholding Company (SZC VN) Top pick
Pandemic hinders growth
Investment points
• In 1H21, Sonadezi Chau Duc Shareholding Company (SZC) reached VND403bn revenue (+47% YoY) and net profit of VND189bn
(Maintain) BUY
(+51.2% YoY); achieved 69% of revenue target and exceeded 7% of profit target for FY21. The positive results came from an
improvement in SZC's rental price, helping to increase gross profit margin in 1H21 to 63.9% (1H20: 56.4%)
Target price • The business situation in 2H21 will no longer be favorable, due to Covid-19: 1) Ba Ria - Vung Tau province implemented social
49,100 distancing according to Directive 16 of the Prime Minister. Thus, from July 2021 onwards, it will be difficult for SZC to sign new
(VND, 12M)
land lease contracts; 2) the Huu Phuoc residential area – Phase 1 with a scale of 20 ha, assuming a successful sales opening, may
contribute VND150bn to the company's profit in 2021. However, in the current situation, the launch of the Huu Phuoc project is
Current price unlikely.
40,200
(7/30/21)
• We lower our forecast for SZC's revenue from VND913bn to about VND585bn, and net profit from VND388bn to VND277bn.
However, we still expect the company to show outstanding growth in revenue (+35% YoY) and net profit (+49% YoY) in FY21.
Expected return 22.1% • We lower our target price for SZC by 3.4%, to VND49,100/share from VND50,800/share. The P/B valuation of the peer
companies has fallen from 3.53x to 2.86x. We maintain our Buy recommendation for SZC (upside +22%).
NP (21F, VND bn) 277
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 249
P/E (21F, x) 14.53
Free float (%) 42.0 Revenue (VNDbn) 290 329 433 585 1,286 1,415
OP (VNDbn) 111 139 213 346 751 781
OP margin (%) 38.2 42.2 49.2 59.2 58.4 55.2
52-week low 22,100 NP (VNDbn) 97 134 186 277 601 625
52-week high 44,000 EPS (VND) 779 1,140 1,860 2,766 6,006 6,250
ROE (%) 6.8 9.7 15.3 19.84 36.81 33.78
(%) 1M 6M 12M 15.5 21.24 14.5 6.49 6.24
P/E (x)
Absolute -2.3 1.5 75.0 P/B (x) 1.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0
Relative 3.9 -9.3 23.7 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC VN) Top pick
Commercial land fund comes to fruition
Investment points
• Core earnings surged on contribution from available land fund. From 2017, Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC) has
(Maintain) BUY
been poised to benefit from the robust growth of Vietnam’s real estate market. With a land fund developed in the 2014–2017
period, IJC is reaping the fruits of its real estate business. The company’s toll collection business also contributes more than
VND200bn in gross profit every year.
Target price (VND, 12M) 36,800 • For 2021, IJC guided for 43% YoY revenue growth to VND3,072bn, and 68% YoY NPAT growth to VND622bn. The company
proposed high growth guidance for 2021, despite all-time-high earnings in 2020. However, based on 23 ha of ready-to-sell land
fund, IJC has the resources to achieve its growth guidance and maintain the current growth trend in 2022.
Current price (08/02/21) 24,800 • IJC’s land fund should ensure stable earnings for next five years (until 2025). IJC plans to develop the current land fund to
ensure supply until 2025. After 2022, IJC will continue to deploy other projects with a total area of 20 ha. To expand the land
supply, the company plans to purchase a 12 ha land fund in the Hoa Loi residential area in 2021 and invest in a 14 ha land fund
at Bau Bang (already purchased years ago through payment-in-progress). The total land fund will ensure IJC’s business activities
Expected return 48.3% continue until 2025.
• Our valuation of Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC) based on the P/B and RNAV methods, with an average industry
NP (21F, VND bn) 657 peer P/B of 1.84, and determined the value of IJC’s land bank at VND45,188 per share. Thus, we determined the fair value per
share of IJC at VND36,800, with 48.3% upside. Accordingly, we recommend Buy for IJC.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) NA
P/E (21F, x) 8.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 217 FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Free float (%) 50.2 Revenue (VNDbn) 971 1,246 1,600 2,141 3,071 3,550
OP (VNDbn) 215 268 343 445 801 997
OP margin (%) 22.8 21.5 21.5 20.8 26.1 28.1
52-week low 9,100 NP (VNDbn) 186 233 304 370 657 798
52-week high 32,900 EPS (VND) 1,239 1,536 2,008 2,698 3,027 3,675
ROE (%) 7.3 12.4 15.3 19.0 23.4 21.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 19.5 14.7 15.3 9.8 8.2 7.17
Absolute -24.1 9.3 147.1 P/B (x) 4.5 3.7 3.7 1.7 1.6 1.4
Relative -17/1 -14.7 83.5 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Development Investment Construction JSC (DIG VN) Top pick
Boosting investment for solid future
Investment points
• With many large projects booking in 2021, the NPAT of Development Investment Construction JSC (DIG) could reach a record
(Maintain) BUY
high. DIG expects consolidated revenue of VND2,800bn and NPAT of VND1,444bn, up by 12% YoY and 60.5% YoY, respectively.
DIG’s FY21 plan is based on the following projects: 1) Nam Vinh Yen New Urban Area; 2) Vi Thanh Commercial Residential
Project—Hau Giang; and 3) recognition of extraordinary profits from transfer of the Dai Phuoc – Dong Nai Ecological Urban Area
Target price
33,800 project to another developer.
(VND, 12M)
• Accelerating investment in new housing land fund for FY22 onwards: DIG plans to invest an estimated VND9,436.3bn in 2021.
Most of the investment budget — up to VND9,264bn/VND9,436bn — will be used by DIG to invest in project development. In
Current price its 2021 investment portfolio, North Vung Tau and Long Tan (in Dong Nai province) are the two largest invested projects, with a
25,200
(7/30/21) value of VND2,190bn and VND1,694bn, respectively.
• Expansion of land fund for industrial zones: In 2020, DIG participated in industrial real estate and contributed VND1,729bn to
the Duc Hoa Investment III JSC - Resco. The company is managing the Duc Hoa III - Resco Industrial Park, with an area of 296 ha,
Expected return 33.0% in Long An province.
• We raise the target price for DIG to VND33,800/share (reflecting a 17% share dividend), based on P/B and RNAV methods. We
NP (21F, VND bn) 1,097 recommend Buy for DIG (upside +33%).
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) NA .
P/E (21F, x) 9.4
Free float (%) 37.5 Revenue (VNDbn) 2,345 2,115 2,487 2,704 2,846 5,693
OP (VNDbn) 339 533 287 1,404 971 1,278

OP margin (%) 14 25 12 51.9 34.1 22.5
52-week low 9,169 NP (VNDbn) 324 391 711 1,097 766 998
EPS (VND) 1,135 1,242 1,908 2,,675 1,868 2,434

52-week high 28,632
ROE (%) 10.5 10.8 16.2 17.8 9.9 11.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 12.6 10.7 9.4 13.5 10.4
13.5
Absolute -0,8 12,3 168,0 P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.43 1.36 1.21
Relative 6,7 -6,0 103,4 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR VN) Top pick
A new era awaits
Investment points
• In 2021, Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR) is forecast to record VND5,147bn in revenue (+31.6% YoY) and
(Maintain) BUY
VND2,061bn in NPAT (+68.9% YoY), thanks to the handover of parts of the high-rise areas of subdivisions 4 and 9 in the Nhon
Hoi project. It is also expected that PDR will record about VND600bn in financial revenue from the Binh Duong Tower project in
3Q21.
Target price (VND, 12M) 116,500 • PDR holds 470 ha of land bank, concentrated in localities with high potential for tourism or economic development: Binh Dinh,
Quang Ngai, Binh Duong, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Phu Quoc, and Da Nang.
• PDR has entered the industry real estate segment, with a 24-ha industrial park near Cai Mep port (investment capital of over
Current price (7/30/21) 92,500 VND1,136bn). Moreover, PDR plans to acquire 6,000 ha of industrial parks in Quang Ngai, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Vung Tau, and
Da Nang.
• The company is also looking to invest in renewable energy, mainly wind power and solar power, with plans to produce 650 MW
Expected return 25.9% of wind power and 1,300 MW of solar power in 2025. We believe PDR could quickly gain an advantage in this field, thanks to its
large land bank in the Central region.
• Lastly, PDR has established a real estate brokerage company, with the initial goal of distributing its own products and later
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,061
those of other real estate companies.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/A Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 77.8 • In the case of a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic and possible economic stagnation, there may be a negative impact on the
company’s development plans, as well as sales.
P/E (21F, x) 27.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 487

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 37.4
Revenue (VND bn) 2,148 3,400 3,911 5,147 8,026 11,086
Foreign ownership (%) 3.8 Operating profit (VND bn) 560 1,101 1,574 2,585 3,979 5,771
OP margin (%) 26.1 32.4 40.2 50.2 49.6 52.1
52-week low 18,141
Net profit (VND bn) 643 874 1,220 2,061 3,172 4,602
52-week high 97,500 EPS (VND) 1,252 1,706 2,381 4,234 6,516 9,454
ROE (%) 19.4 21.4 24.7 26.0 29.4 30.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M 11.2 10.3 17.6
P/E (x) 27.5 17.9 12.3
Absolute -3.5 108.5 404.6 P/B (x) 2.0 2.0 4.0 7.2 5.3 3.8
Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Relative 4.0 82.0 340.5
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL VN) Top pick
Great potential from infrastructure investment
Investment points
• The slowdown in sales and possibly handovers in 2021 could be compensated by a potential new M&A deal in the Eastern area
(Maintain) BUY
of Ho Chi Minh City, with profit of up to VND8,000bn, of which VND1,500bn is expected to be booked in FY21.
• Not including announced projects, No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL) still has 3,700 ha of land waiting to be developed,
most of which is reserved for hospitality real estate and residential projects in and around Ho Chi Minh City. By 2030, it plans to
Target price (VND, 12M) 131,700 have 15,000 ha for development, three times larger than its current land bank.
• The average selling prices of several NVL projects (most notably its hospitality real estate products) have risen by 10–20%, an
outstanding result amid Vietnam’s fourth COVID wave. We believe prices could rise by a further 20–30% by 2023, when the
Current price (7/30/21) 104,000 majority of NVL products are finished.
• NVL projects will benefit greatly from infrastructure investments in the near future: Long Thanh International Airport will be
completed in 2025; Phan Thiet International Airport Phase 1 (with a capacity of 2mn passengers/year) and the Ho Chi Minh City
Expected return 26.6% - Dau Giay - Phan Thiet Highway, to be completed in 2022; in addition, the Dau Giay - Bao Loc, Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressways
are expected to begin construction soon.
Risks
NP (21F, VND bn) 4,997
• We believe the biggest risk for NVL comes from the COVID-19 pandemic which could delay construction progress and handover
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 4,512 plans, leading to fund shortages. In addition, the possible tightening of credit for the real estate industry in the future is also a
EPS Growth (21F, %) 26 potential risk.
P/E (21F, x) 35.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,474 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Revenue (VND bn) 15,635 11,026 5,241 13,943 18,022 23,127
Free float (%) 30.4
Operating profit (VND bn) 4,678 592 5,049 7,493 6,005 7,982
Foreign ownership (%) 9.8 OP margin (%) 33.7 28.8 36.5 53.7 33.3 34.5
Net profit (VND bn) 3,267 3,387 3,906 4,997 3,787 4,835
52-week low 43,724
EPS (VND) 3,533 3,579 4,021 5,073 3,862 4,919
52-week high 123,600 ROE (%) 19.1 15.3 13.9 14.7 9.9 11.0
P/E (x) 16.5 16.2 16.4 35.2 46.2 36.3
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 7.7 6.8 6.0
Absolute -13.3 76.2 119.2 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Relative -5.8 49.7 55.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Vinhomes JSC (VHM VN) Top pick
Maintaining leadership position
Investment points
• We forecast Vinhomes JSC’s revenue in 2021 at VND66,282bn (-6.5% YoY) and NPAT at VND30,252bn (+7.3% YoY), mostly
(Maintain) TRADING BUY
coming from three mega projects, as well as VHM Wonder Park.
• There are also four bulk sales being negotiated, showing a change in the strategy of having an equal proportion of bulk and
Target price retail sales. This is in line with what we expect Vinhomes (and Vingroup as a whole) to push quick cash flow in the future.
128,500
(VND, 12M) • We calculate pre-sales in 2021 at VND102.7tr (+63.5% YoY), slightly higher than management’s own target of VND91tr, of which
60% will come from retail and 40% from block sales.
Current price • For FY22–FY23, we forecast a CAGR for PATMI at 19%, with the debt-to-equity ratio declining to just 17.6% (FY20: 27.8%).
108,300 Regarding sales, VHM plans to open for sale three new projects in Hanoi: Wonder Park, Dream City, and Co Loa. From 2022 to
(7/30/21)
2023, VHM will launch two big projects in Can Gio and Green Ha Long.
• We estimate Vinhomes’ 2022 revenue at VND86.2tr (+30% YoY), mostly from VHM Dream City (VND31.6tr), VHM Co Loa
Expected return 18.7% (VND7.2tr), and VHM Grand Park (VND15.2tr), with net profit of VND34.2tr (+13.2% YoY).
• We estimate total revenue for Vinhomes in 2023 will reach VN93tr (+7.8% YoY), thanks to VHM Long Beach (VND19.7tr), VHM
NP (21F, VND bn) 30,252 Dream City (VND15.4tr), VHM Co Loa (VND11.9tr), etc. Despite that, we forecast Vinhomes net profit will come to VND42.7tr
(+24.8% YoY) thanks to VND20.9tr in bulk sales (+26.6% YoY).
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 34,776
Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 2.4
• We remain cautious on rising construction prices, internal trading with other Vingroup subsidiaries and most of all, the lasting
P/E (21F, x) 15.1 economic impact of the pandemic.
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,290

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 23.4
Revenue (VNDbn) 38,664 51,627 71,547 66,282 86,167 93,061
Foreign ownership (%) 23.3 OP (VNDbn) 19,725 29,715 37,305 38,327 43,508 54,191
OP margin (%) 51 57.5 52.1 57.8 50.5 58.2
52-week low 74,600
NP (VNDbn) 14,776 24,319 28,206 30,252 34,203 42,758
52-week high 120,400 EPS (VND) 4,503 6,502 8,315 8,516 9,547 12,109
ROE (%) 57.0 43.8 38.6 23.7% 21.7% 21.9%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 16.3 13.0 10.8 15.1 13.5 10.6
Absolute -7.6 22.7 39.4 P/B (x) 5.7 5.0 3.4 4.4 3.6 2.9
Relative 0.0 -3.9 -24.7 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) Top pick
Record profits
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 1H21, revenue and net profit (NP) of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) reached a record VND66,868bn (+66% YoY) and VND16,750bn
(+231% YoY), respectively. Of this, net profit in 2Q21 alone was VND9,745bn (+253% YoY). However, compared with market
consensus, this is 10–15% below expectations. Despite the impressive NP, we see significant risk exposure for HPG in 3Q21,
Target price (VND, 12M) 57,300 with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting economic and construction activities.
• By contrast, galvanized steel sheet is currently benefiting greatly from the reopening of countries around the world. We
forecast the galvanized steel sheet segment in 2021F will run at full capacity, equivalent to output of 400,000 MT.
Current price
47,250 • Construction steel price reached VND17.2mn/MT in June 2021, an increase of 40% compared with the beginning of 2021.
(03/08/21)
However, as we mentioned, the rapid rise in the price of construction steel led many companies to suspend construction.
Together with the pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, HPG had to reduce construction steel prices from July onwards.
According to our survey, HPG's construction steel price is currently selling at VND15–15.4mn/MT, down 11–14% from the peak
Expected return 21.4%
in June.
• We revise our forecast for HPG's 2021 total steel output downward by 7% from our previous forecast, equivalent to total
NP (21F, VND bn) 35,851 output of 8.89mn MT (+41.5% YoY). We forecast FY21 revenue of VND57,487bn (+49.6% YoY) from construction steel);
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 33,418 VND31,681bn for the steel pipe and galvanized sheet segment (down 15% from our previous forecast); and VND46,976bn
(+788% YoY) for the hot-rolled coil segment. We forecast net profit of VND29,424bn (+118% YoY) in FY21, with gross profit
EPS Growth (21F, %) 118% margin and net profit margin at 24% and 18%, respectively (vs. a respective 21% and 15% in 2020).
P/E (21F, x) 8.8x
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,473

(%) VN-Index HPG VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 54.0
420
Revenue (VNDbn) 55,836 63,658 90,119 164,456 165,369 174,945
Foreign ownership (%) 26.7 370
OP (VNDbn) 10,550 9,743 17,120 35,851 30,262 32,715
320
52-week low 16,800 OP margin (%) 18.9% 15.3% 19.0% 21.8% 18.3% 18.7%
270
52-week high 220 NP (VNDbn) 8,601 7,578 13,504 29,424 25,417 26,547
55,500
170 EPS (VND) 1,923 1,694 3,019 6,578 5,683 5,935
(%) 1T 6T 12T 120 ROE (%) 21.2% 15.9% 22.9% 34.2% 24.1% 21.6%
Absolute -9.6 52.8 178.8 70
P/E (x) 13.5x 14.0x 13.8x 8.8x 10.2x 9.7x
20
Relative -2.7 33.8 116.5 Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21 P/B (x) 1.4x 1.4x 2.3x 3.0x 2.8x 1.2x

Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG VN) Top pick
Robust net profit in 2021, thanks to big bet on HRC price
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • The business results of Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG) in 9M21 (financial year to September 30) were very positive, with revenue and
net profit (NP) of VND33,064bn (+61% YoY) and VND3,308bn (+320% YoY), respectively. The output of galvanized sheet and
steel pipe in 9M21 reached 1,288mn/MT (+62% YoY) and 368,368mn/MT (+29% YoY), respectively. Notably, the output of 9M21
Target price steel sheet was 12% higher than our previous forecast.
52,200
(VND, 12M)
• However, we believe that HSG’s most remarkable achievement was its ratio of inventory to total assets (Inv/TA) in 3Q21, which
reached 46.3% (vs. 27.5% in 1Q21), 65% higher than the figure in 3Q20. In 1Q18, when the Inv/TA ratio was above 44%, a
Current price sudden drop in HRC price caused HSG’s NP to fall by 2/3 (1Q18 NP of VND333bn vs. VND95.7bn in 2Q18). We believe that the
37,000
(03/08/21) rapid increase in inventories shows that HSG is betting to much on HRC’s future price. We view this as HSG’s biggest risk in
2022, unless the company can reduce the ratio of Inv/TA, with China trying its best reduce iron ore prices.
• We adjusted our forecast for steel pipe production downward by 14%, compared with our previous forecast, due to the fourth
Expected return 41% wave of COVID-19 in Vietnam. The impact of the pandemic paralyzed construction activities in the South in June and July, and
shows no signs of ending. Thus, we forecast HSG's galvanized sheet and steel pipe output in 2021F to reach 1,539,471 MT (+35%
NP (21F, VND bn) 5,395 YoY) and 512,934 MT (+24% YoY), respectively, 12% lower than our previous forecast. We forecast revenue in FY21 at
VND43,157bn (+56.7% YoY).
• The increase in inventory stockpiling from 1Q21 and 2Q21 helped 3Q21’s gross profit jump to VND2,953bn (+178% YoY),
EPS Growth (21F, %) 262% equivalent to gross margin of 22.7%. We forecast HSG's FY21 gross margin to reach 20% (vs. 17.5% in FY20), thanks to the large
P/E (21F, x) 6.3x accumulation of inventories in 1H21. Thus, we project FY21 net profit of VND4,064bn (+253% YoY).

FY (30/09) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
(%) VN-Index HSG VN
Free float (%) 68.4
Revenue (VNDbn) 26,149 34,441 28,035 27,543 43,157 39,773
720
Foreign ownership (%) 10.1 OP (VNDbn) 2,104 1,266 979 1,951 5,395 3,580
620
52-week low 9,200 OP margin (%) 8.0% 3.7% 3.5% 7.1% 12.5% 9.0%
520
NP (VNDbn) 1,332 409 361 1,150 4,064 2,678
52-week high 43,000 420
EPS (VND) 2,724 837 739 2,353 8,313 5,479
320
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 24.4% 7.9% 6.4% 17.5% 42.5% 23.3%
220
Absolute -12.7 70.3 301.0 P/E (x) 6.6x 6.7x 10.5x 9.3x 6.3x 9.5x
120
Relative P/B (x) 1.2x 0.4x 0.6x 1.5x 2.7x 2.3x
-5.9 51.3 238.6
20 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21

Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG VN) Top pick
Impressive turnaround
Investment points
• Business results for Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG) in 1H21 were very impressive, with revenue and net profit (NP) of VND11.877bn
(Maintain) BUY (+146% YoY) and VND1,166bn (+1,883% YoY), respectively. The contribution of exports in the galvanized sheet segment
increased sharply to 65% in 1Q21 and 85% in 2Q21 (vs. 40% in 2020). In 1H21, the output of galvanized steel sheet and steel
pipe was 473,525 MT (+85.4% YoY) and 99,586 MT (+74.8% YoY), respectively, almost the same as our previous forecast.
Target price • In 2Q21, the inventory/total assets ratio (Inv/TA) increased to 46% (vs. 42% in 1Q21), while the average HRC price continued to
51,000
(VND, 12M) increase to US$876/MT (+19.3% QoQ/+75.2% YoY). With cheap inventory in 1Q21, NKG was able to expand its gross profit
margin (GPM) to 18.6% in 2Q21 (vs. 12.6% in 1Q21 and 4.2% in 2Q20). Thus, we forecast revenue and net profit (NP) in FY21 will
Current price reach historic highs of VND23,190bn (+100% YoY) and VND2,116bn (+617% YoY), respectively. We forecast the output of
34,600 galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 2021F to reach 758,700 MT (+35% YoY) and 212,661 MT (+50% YoY), respectively. Notably,
(03/08/21)
the export volume of galvanized sheet accounted for over 60% of NKG’s total output of galvanized steel sheet (vs. 40% in 2020).
• The ratio of inventory to total assets (Inv/TA) in 1Q21 increased to 42%, and we believe this to be a risk of material speculation.
Expected return 47.5% NKG’s previous highest Inv/TA ratio was 40% in 4Q17 and 2Q18. After that, HRC price dropped from US$673/MT to US$536/MT,
causing losses in 4Q18 and 1Q19. However, we think that this risk is unlikely to happen to NKG in 2H21, as the export segment,
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,621 which accounts for 55–65% of revenue, determines the contract price 3–4 months in advance. We are very positive on NKG
currently, as it maintains a high export proportion, thereby limiting the risk of a decline in domestic output, with the fourth
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 1,907 wave of the COVID-19 pandemic showing no signs of abating.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 617%
P/E (21F, x) 4.4x
Shares outstanding (mn) 172 (%) VN-Index NKG VN FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
720 Revenue (VNDbn) 12,619 14,812 12,177 11,560 23,190 20,015
Free float (%) 58.4
620 OP (VNDbn) 1,024 390 63 509 2,621 1,041
520 OP margin (%) 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 4.4% 11.3% 5.2%
52-week low 6,400
420 NP (VNDbn) 708 57 47 295 2,116 910
52-week high 36,800 320 EPS (VND) 3,887 315 260 1,622 11,629 4,998
220 ROE (%) 24.1% 1.9% 1.6% 9.3% 39.3% 14.9%

(%) 1M 6M 12M
120
P/E (x) 5.0x 25.1x 26.5x 8.3x 4.4x 10.2x
Absolute -7.1 123.2 425.4
P/B (x) 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.9x 1.8x 1.6x
Relative -0.2 104.3 363.1 20
Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests

PetroVietnam Power Corporation (POW VN) Top pick
Strong earnings growth in FY22
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• FY21–FY22: Flat bottom line in FY21, then strong earnings growth in FY22
• We forecast net profit for PetroVietnam Power Corporation (POW) to decrease in FY21 by a modest 2% YoY. FY21 results will be
Target price (VND, 12M) 14,000 affected by 17% lower gross profit. Our forecast does not include any one-off reimbursements from EVN for foreign-exchange
losses (total one-off revenue and gross profit of VND1,028bn in 4Q20, zero cost of goods sold). In contrast, FY21 provisioning
for bad debt is estimated at VND56bn (-85% YoY). Interest expense will decline by 21% YoY. For FY21 core-businesses, we
Current price expect gross profit of power generation to rise by 7% YoY, thanks to a 22–23% YoY decrease in repair and maintenance
10,600
(July 28, 2021) expenses of the Ca Mau 1&2 power plants and Vung Ang 1 coal-fired power plants. Our FY21 profit-after-tax forecast is 65%
higher than POW’s preliminary target.
Expected return +31% • For FY22, we expect net profit to surge by 44% YoY, based on 22% higher selling volume and 15% lower interest expense.
Risk
• Changes in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,323
• The Ca Mau 1&2 plants are set to join the competitive generation market (CGM) with alpha ratio (the output sold under PPA) of
90% from FY22. If joining the CGM is delayed, the Ca Mau 1&2 plants will earn an additional VND120bn of gross profit per year,
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/A
compared with our forecast.
EPS growth (21F, %) -3
• The FC of the Vung Ang 1 and Dakdrinh (DHC) plants will be recalculated after finalizing their value of construction settlement.
P/E (21F, x) 13.4
Market cap (VNDbn) 25,058

FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
(%) VN-Index POW VN
Market cap (US$mn) 1,073
190 Revenue (VNDbn) 32,662 35,374 29,732 32,632 40,827 41,340
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,342 170 OP (VNDbn) 3,683 3,935 3,371 2,827 4,256 4,293
52-week low (VND) 8,900 150 OP margin (%) 11.3% 11.1% 11.3% 8.7% 10.4% 10.4%
130
NP (VNDbn) 1,921 2,510 2,365 2,323 3,347 3,514
52-week high (VND) 14,800 110
EPS (VND) 814 1,028 999 970 1,398 1,468
90
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 7.0% 8.9% 7.8% 7.3% 10.1% 10.1%
70
Absolute -10.8 -14.1 16.9 P/E (x) 11.1x 13.6x 13.4x 9.3x 8.9x
50
Relative -2.8 -31.6 -46.7 Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 P/B (x) 0.9x 1x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Power Construction JSC No.1 (PC1 VN) Top pick
New projects to pilot FY22 profit growth
Investment points
• We forecast FY21 net profit for Power Construction JSC No.1 (PC1) to decrease by 8% YoY. FY21 results will be affected by a 91–
92% decline in revenue and gross profit in the real estate segment. Conversely, we expect the power infrastructure
Target price construction and steel tower segments to achieve a 24–25% YoY rise in revenue and gross profit, and the hydropower group to
29,900
(VND, 12M) record 15% YoY growth in revenue and 18% YoY growth in gross profit. This would be nearly enough to make up for the declines
in the real estate segment.
Current price • For FY22, we expect net profit to rebound by 31% YoY. Launch of the Vinh Hung project is planned for 2Q22, and we expect it to
26,150
(July 28, 2021) record revenue of VND691bn (+834% YoY) and gross profit of VND222bn (11x higher) in FY22. Moreover, three wind power
plants, including the Lien Lap, Phong Huy, and Phong Nguyen projects (48MW per project, COD in August–September 2021), are
expected to contribute VND959bn of revenue (+425% YoY) and VND379bn of gross profit (+519% YoY) in FY22.
Expected return +15%
• For the power infrastructure construction and steel tower segments, we expect the development of wind power to cool in FY22,
after booming in FY21, as no new Feed in Tariff (FIT) scheme for November 2021 onward has been released. Thus, we expect
16–17% lower revenue and gross profit for the segments. Interest expense will surge by 36% YoY in FY21 and 45% YoY in FY22.
Risk
• Risk from higher receivable days in power infrastructure construction; risk for our target price from new projects; dilution effect.
EPS growth (21F, %) -14
P/E (21F, x) 11

FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
(%) VN-Index PC1 VN
Market cap (US$mn) 217
230 Revenue (VNDbn) 5,084 5,845 6,679 7,876 7,803 7,044
Shares outstanding (mn) 191 210
OP (VNDbn) 658 595 823 825 1,247 947
190
52-week low (VND) 14,200 170 OP margin (%) 12.9% 10.2% 12.3% 10.5% 16.0% 13.4%
150 NP (VNDbn) 467 358 513 474 620 382
52-week high (VND) 30,500 130
110
EPS (VND) 2,348 1,871 2,682 2,307 3,015 1,859
(%) 1M 6M 12M 90 ROE (%) 15.3% 10.3% 12.1% 9.2% 10.7% 6.1%
70
Absolute 0.0 4.3 87.1 P/E (x) 8.8x 9.4x 8.3x 11x 8.4x 13.7x
50
Relative 7.6 -13.7 22.7 Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 P/B (x) 1.2x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x

PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 JSC (NT2 VN) Top pick
FY22 bounce-back after a tough year
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• Momentum from 2H20 low base: We forecast 2H21 net profit to increase by 31% YoY. We expect selling volume to achieve a
53% YoY rise, compared with 2H20 low-based output, due to 36-day maintenance (from September 15 to October 21, 2020).
FY21 net profit will decline by 32% YoY.
Target price (VND, 12M) 22,500
• Higher volume and lower financial expenses to drive profit growth in FY22: For FY22, we expect net profit to rebound by 44%
YoY, thanks to 6% YoY growth in selling volume and a 56% drop in financial expenses. NT2 paid off its long-term loans by June
Current price 2021, which will help the company to save financial expenses and improve cash flow. We estimate net cash flow of VND83bn in
18,350
(July 28, 2021) FY21 and VND607bn in FY22, versus -VND390bn in FY20.
• NT2 is currently trading at FY21F P/E of 13x, 9% lower than its peers.
Expected return +23% Risk
• Upside risks: Our forecast does not include any one-off dividends from unrealized foreign exchange differences booked in
retained earnings (about VND581bn by end-FY20, equivalent to VND2,000 of cash dividend per share), once NT2 is free of long-
NP (21F, VND bn) 424 term loans from 2H21 onwards. In addition, the company is negotiating to receive reimbursements from EVN for foreign-
exchange losses of about VND400bn.
• Downside risks: An expected 61% YoY recovery in MFO price in FY21 (the reference of gas input price) and higher purchase
EPS growth (21F, %) -33 price of around US$6.99/MMBTU for the additional gas source of the Sao Vang Dai Nguyet gas field will diminish NT2’s
competitiveness in the competitive generation market. Thus, mobilization of NT2 could be lower than our expectation.
P/E (21F, x) 13

(%) VN-Index NT2 VN FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Market cap (US$mn) 227 190 Revenue (VNDbn) 7,670 7,654 6,082 7,638 8,351 7,526
OP (VNDbn) 915 887 810 494 661 505
150
52-week low (VND) 18,350 OP margin (%) 11.9% 11.6% 13.3% 6.5% 7.9% 6.7%
130
NP (VNDbn) 782 754 625 424 612 485
52-week high (VND) 24,900 110
90
EPS (VND) 2,618 2,540 2,095 1,414 2,040 1,618
(%) 1M 6M 12M 70 ROE (%) 18.0% 19.3% 14.8% 9.9% 14.3% 11.2%
Absolute -11.7 -22.8 -9.3 50 P/E (x) 8.4x 7.6x 11.3x 13x 9.7x 12.3x
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21
Relative -4.3 -41.1 -73.9 P/B (x) 1.7x 1.3x 1.6x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x

Candon HydroPower JSC (SJD VN) Top pick
Robust earnings flow
Investment points
• Attractive annual dividend yield of 12% in FY20–FY27. We assume Candon HydroPower JSC (SJD) will maintain a payout ratio of
at least 95%, resulting in forecast cash dividend per share of VND2,000/year over the next seven years.
Target price • In FY28, at the end of BOT contract of the Can Don hydropower plant (77.6 MW, accounting for 75% of total capacity), we
19,200
(VND, 12M) expect the dividend to rise by 189% YoY to VND5,400/share (32% of dividend yield).
Current price
• In FY21–FY28, we expect production volume and earnings to be in line with Vietnam’s weather patterns, which alternate
17,050 between two rainy years and two drought years.
(July 28, 2021)
• We maintain our Trading Buy recommendation and target price of VND19,200 (+12% upside) for SJD, applying the dividend
discount model (DDM) method and P/B approach. SJD is currently trading at FY21F P/B of 1.3x, 13% lower than its peers’
Expected return +12% average of 1.5x and 17% lower than its average historical P/B from FY18.
EPS growth (21F, %) 43
P/E (21F, x) 8.2

(%) VN-Index SJD VN FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Market cap (US$mn) 50 190 Revenue (VNDbn) 496 425 331 499 501 407
OP (VNDbn) 226 203 139 209 205 172
150
52-week low (VND) 15,200 OP margin (%) 46% 48% 42% 42% 41% 42%
130
NP (VNDbn) 191 154 101 161 158 132
52-week high (VND) 17,900 110
90
EPS (VND) 2,768 2,228 1,465 2,096 2,058 1,722
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 18% 16% 11% 18% 17% 15%
70
Absolute -2.0 1.2 0.0 50 P/E (x) 8.9x 9.2x 11.6x 8.2x 8.3x 10x
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21
Relative 5.1 -17.5 -65.2 P/B (x) 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x

Vietnam Bank for Investment & Development (BID VN) Top pick
Earnings growth turnaround in FY21
Investment points
(Upgrade) BUY • BID is targeting profit before tax growth of 44% in FY21, in line with our projection of 50.3%. For a number of years, the bank’s
bottom line has been continually suppressed by provisioning pressure; thus, resolved legacy problem assets should ease
pressure on the bottom line. Furthermore, asset quality is generally improving.

• Due to the low Tier 1 ratio, more capital would have been useful. The bank will offer about 341.5mn shares (equivalent to 8.5%
of the charter capital as of end-FY20) via private placement. The capital calls will enable the bank to lower average funding cost.
Additionally, BID is among the most active issuers in the primary bond market; relatively high long-term debt also facilitates low
funding cost visibility.
Current price (7/30/21) 41,100 Risks
• 1) potential delay of the planned capital call; 2) fierce competition, especially with private banks; 3) potential maintaining of the
bank’s high write-off ratio to lower the on-balance-sheet NPL ratio; 4) emerging bad debts due to prolonged COVID-19 spread;
Expected return 26.5% and 5) lower lending yield for government-prioritized sectors.
NP (21F, VND bn) 10,626
EPS growth (21F, %) 42.4
P/E (21F, x) 21.9
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,022 (%) FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
VN-Index BID VN
Net interest inc. (VND bn) 34,956 35,978 35,824 38,573 44,079 47,869
Free float (%) 19.0 190
Net non-interest inc. (VND bn) 10,812 13,086 14,086 17,716 19,393 21,439
Foreign ownership (%) 16.7 170 Operating profit (VND bn) 9,339 10,518 8,899 13,466 16,372 19,876
NP (VND bn) 7,477 8,368 6,997 10,626 12,951 15,754
52-week low 36,000 150 EPS (VND) 1,613 2,163 1,447 2,061 2,512 3,055
EPS growth (%) 7.6 34.1 -33.1 42.4 21.9 21.6
52-week high 50,600 130
P/E (x) 21.3 21.3 33.1 21.9 18.0 14.8
Share performance (%) 1M 6M 12M 110 P/PPOP (x) 4.2 5.3 6.0 5.0 4.4 4.0
P/B (x) 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.3
Absolute -13.0 3.0 10.5
90 ROE (%) 11.0 11.5 7.40 9.0 8.5 8.9
Relative Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21
-6.0 -21.0 -53.0 Dividend yield (%) 2.1 1.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Asia Commercial Bank (ACB VN) Top pick
Well-managed COVID-19 uncertainties
Investment points
(Downgrade) TRADING BUY • Looking forward, we believe Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) will retain its NIM level on the back of: 1) continuous expansion in
retail loans with high yields; and 2) its strategy to increase the CASA ratio.
• The new exclusive bancassurance with Sunlife will augment the bank’s fee income stream, along with the amortized upfront
fees over a 15-year period.
• Asset quality should remain broadly unchanged over the outlook horizon.
Risks
Current price (7/30/21) 36,150 • 1) fierce competition in retail and SME lending; 2) an increase in the cost-to-income ratio; and 3) emerging bad debts from
COVID-19.
NP (21F, VND bn) 9,683
EPS growth (21F, %) 26.9
P/E (21F, x) 10.1
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,702 (%) FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
VN-Index ACB VN
Net interest inc. (VND bn) 10,390 12,141 14,600 18,945 21,777 24,927
Free float (%) 79.9 290
270 Net non-interest inc. (VND bn) 3,781 4,003 3,560 3,833 4,468 5,309
Foreign ownership (%) 30.0 250 Operating profit (VND bn) 6,389 7,516 9,594 12,089 14,698 16,991
230 NP (VND bn) 5,137 6,010 7,683 9,683 11,773 13,610
52-week low 13,600 210 EPS (VND) 1,893 2,235 2,809 3,565 4,334 5,010
190
EPS growth (%) 153.4 18.1 25.7 26.9 21.6 15.6
52-week high 38,200 170
P/E (x) 7.41 10.06 12.14 10.1 8.3 7.2
150
Share performance (%) 1M 6M 12M 130 P/PPOP (x) 5.0 7.6 8.7 7.3 6.3 5.4
110 P/B (x) 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5
Absolute 1.3 68.6 159.9
90 ROE (%) 26.9 24.2 24.0 24.1 23.5 22.5
Relative Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21
8.3 44.6 96.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank (VPB VN)
Dream big
Investment points
• In 1H21, profit before tax of VPB increased by 37.2% YoY without support from one-off income from FE Credit divestment. We
assume that VPB’s FY21 profit will be three times higher than that of FY20, mainly thanks to divestment. As a result, its capital
buffer should increase significantly, which would allow the bank to pursue high credit growth in the years to come.
Target price • There are two key investment risks: 1) High provisioning expenses in 2021, due to the impact of the fourth wave of COVID-19;
71,500 and 2) a sharp increase in capital could lead to the inefficient use of capital, which would eventually cause low ROE — an input
(VND, 12M)
of the banking valuation approach.
• NIM is expected to face headwinds from the pandemic, as interest income will be negatively affected by interest rate support
Current price
61,000 packages. In addition, we expect business banking (corporate lending and corporate bonds investments) to drive credit growth
(07/30/21)
in 2H21, lowering the composition of retail banking in its loans book, which would eventually depress the bank’s interest-
earning assets’ yield. Fortunately, huge capital gains from the divestment could ease funding costs for the bank, mitigating the
impact from the fourth wave of COVID-19.
NP (21F, VND bn) 34,112
EPS Growth (21F, %) 197,9
P/E (21F, x) 5.6
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,455 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 24,702 30,670 32,346 37,274 43,478 49,990
Free float (%) 70.0
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 6,384 5,685 6,687 32,518 8,215 8,215
Foreign ownership (%) 15.4 Operating profit (VNDbn) 9,199 10,324 13,019 42,776 22,695 27,881
52-week low 21,000 Net profit (VNDbn) 7,356 8,260 10,414 34,112 18,153 22,301
EPS (VND) 2,994 3,388 4,242 12,724 6,081 7,361
52-week high 72,700
P/E (x) 23.9 12.9 16.9 5.6 10.0 8.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M BVPS (VND) 14,579 17,996 22,187 35,440 41,714 49,307
P/B (x) 4.9 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.7 1.5
Absolute -15.4 72.1 202.0
Relative -7.6 54.2 137.9 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Century Synthetic Fiber Corp (STK VN) Top pick
Updated 1H21 results and Unitex project
Key points
• We forecast the business activities of Century Synthetic Fiber Corp (STK) in 2H21 to continue their current recovery momentum.
Moreover, the Unitex project is expected to increase total company value.
• In 1H21, STK recorded revenue of VND1,077.7bn (+23.9% YoY), nearly equal to the 1H19 figure of VND1,100.2bn. Gross profit
Target price and operating profit increased strongly, reaching VND211bn (+83.1% YoY) and VND160.6bn (+143.9% YoY), respectively. 1H21
48,500 after-tax profit reached VND140.85bn (+156.5% YoY). Full-year 2021 revenue is forecast at VND2,226.9bn (+26% YoY), with
(VND, 12M)
VND285.8bn of operating profit (+74.5% YoY) and VND242.9bn of after-tax profit (+69.4% YoY).
• With a low dumping margin compared with Vietnam in general and the regional average, we believe that STK's ability to export
Current price
41,000 products to the US market will increase. In general, the company may benefit from the US DOC decision.
(7/27/21)
• Overall, Vietnam's filament yarn market share in the main markets remained stable, with selling prices in some markets
improving strongly in 1H21.
Expected return 17%
OP (21F, VND bn) 286
Consensus OP (21F, VND bn) 314
P/E (21F, x) 14.1

(%) VN-Index STK VN
350
Revenue (VNDbn) 2,408.3 2,231.8 1,767.4 2,226.9 2,449.6 2,808.3
Free float (%) 53.7
300
OP (VNDbn) 248.2 162.9 162.9 285.8 342.9 413.3
Foreign ownership (%) 12.0 OP margin (%) 10.3 7.3 9.2 12.8 14.0 14.7
250
NP (VNDbn) 178.4 214.4 143.4 242.9 291.5 351.3

52-week low 13,500
200
EPS (VND) 2,522.4 3,031.4 2,028 3,434 4,121 4,967
52-week high 42,550 19.6 19.8 13.3 19.9 21.3 22.8
150 ROE (%)
P/E (x) 19.2 16.0 23.9 14.1 11.8 9.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M 100
P/B (x) 3.8 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2
Absolute 2.6 63.7 200.4
50 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21
Relative 10.8 39.0 137.7 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Vinh Hoan Corp (VHC VN) Top pick
On the way back
Investment points
(Downgrade) TRADING BUY • We maintain our target price of VND45,400 for Vinh Hoan Corp (VHC), and downgrade our recommendation to Trading Buy
(from Buy), due to the increase in VHC’s market share price from our last update.
• FY21 consolidated revenue is forecast to rise 8.4% YoY to VND7,631bn. Pangasius products are likely to remain as VHC’s major
Target price growth driver, with 2021 revenue of VND6,122bn (+9.6% YoY), thanks to the recovery of the US market and turnaround of the
45,400
(VND, 12M) EU market. Meanwhile, revenue from collagen in 2021 is projected to rise 20% YoY to VND692bn on higher production.
• In 2021, we expect VHC net profit to reach VND832bn (+18.1% YoY), thanks to higher net revenue and 1.7%p improvement in
Current price gross margin (driven by higher average export price and lower average material price).
41,100
(8/2/2021) • In 1H21, VHC reported net profit of VND391bn (+3.9% YoY), which made up 47% of our net profit target, on the back of a bold
recovery in sales in the US (+35.6% YoY) and China (+60.7% YoY).
Expected return 10.5% • Global consumption of pangasius, or basa (a species of catfish), is expected recover in 2021, after a sharp drop due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. Half of all adults in the US — traditionally, VHC’s largest export market —have received at least one
COVID-19 shot. We expect the US to reach herd immunity in 4Q21, helping US pangasius consumption to regain its pre-
NP (21F, VND bn) 832 pandemic status, with a projected increase of 7–10% YoY in 2021 (following a 31% YoY decline in 2020).
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/a
P/E (21F, x) 9.7

FY (31/12) 2018 2019 2020 2021F
Net revenue (VNDbn) 9,271 7,867 7,037 7,631
Free float (%) 50.2 Operating income (VNDbn) 1,685 1,132 683 871
Operating income – growth (%YoY) 121.4 -32.8 -39.7 27.6%
Net profit (VNDbn) 1,442 1,179 705 832
52-week low 33,900 Net profit growth (YoY) -0.7% 3.4% 6.5% 3.4%
EPS (VND) 7,865 6,430 3,844 4,539
52-week high 48,000 18.1%
EPS growth (YoY) 138.5% -18.2% -40.2%
ROE 36.3% 24.4% 13.8% 14.9%
(%) 1M 6M 12M
ROA 23.1% 17.9% 9.8% 10.3%
Absolute -9.8 12.5 23.9 Dividend/Par value (%) 20.0 40.0 20.0 20%
Relative -2.3 6.7 -37.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests

APPENDIX 1
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the
laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report.
Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not
serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the
subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes
revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know
or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS), a broker-dealer registered in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and a member of the Vietnam Stock Exchanges. Information and
opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and MAS makes no guarantee,
representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the
Vietnamese language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Vietnamese language, the original Vietnamese language report may have been made available to investors in advance of
this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and
no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject MAS and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any
use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The
report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of MAS by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular
investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained
herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and
investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. MAS, its affiliates and their
directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
MAS may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and
analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. MAS may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. MAS, its affiliates and
their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any
such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. MAS and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to
enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of MAS.

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Strategy report | Aug 2021

VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

I. Vietnam economy 7M21 review and economic outlook update 3

2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

3 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

4 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Vietnam GDP growth forecast in 2021

Organization Scenario 2021 GDP growth forecast

Asian Development Bank (ADB) 5.8%

5 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Fourth COVID-19 wave in Vietnam Vietnam’s COVID-19 vaccinations at low level

6 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 7M21

IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 34.7

Printing, recorded media reproduction -1.7

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

7 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

8 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Trade balance (L) Exports ( R) (% YoY) Exports Imports

Source: GSO Source: GSO

9 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Electronic goods, computers, and their parts

10 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

• Additionally-registered FDI was down 3.7% YoY, to reach US$4.5bn.

Registered FDI (L) FDI disbursement (L)

Source: GSO, updated as of 07/20/2021 Source: MPI

11 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 5.7%

Accommodation and Catering Services

Registered FDI by locality in 7M21

4.9% Hai Duong Nghe An

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

12 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO Source: GSO

13 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Average registered capital of newly-established enterprises (% YoY)

Newly-established enterprises 160

14 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

GBP CNY VND PHP INR

(VND) (End 2020 = 0%) MYR IDR KRW THB JPY

15 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

CPI: MoM and YoY CPI by industry (%)

Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -1.09 -0.35 -0.10 -1.18

Other Services 1.44 0.89 0.00 1.64

Source: GSO Source: GSO, updated as of June 2021

16 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

17 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

18 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Global performance monitor: Monthly change (%)

19 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

20 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

21 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors

Price change Index impact Price change Index impact

22 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Market liquidity heatmap

Retailing 100% 96.8%

Technology Hardware & Equipment 100% 55.2%