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Recommendation and valuation • We upgrade our rating for Masan Group (MSN) to Buy (from Hold) and raise our target price to
VND179,000 (from VND143,000). Our target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with
separate multiples applied to MSN’s five major business segments: packaged food, meat value chain,
high-tech materials, grocery retail, and financial services.
9M21 better than expected • In 9M21, the fourth wave of COVID-19 forced many large cities in Vietnam to apply lockdown measures.
Meanwhile, the world’s major economies recovered strongly from the damages inflicted by the
pandemic, thanks to high percentages of fully-vaccinated populations. All four business segments of
MSN posted revenue growth in 9M21, benefitting from domestic and global recoveries (consumer
products +13.4% YoY, meat chain +32.8% YoY, high-tech materials +89.3% YoY, grocery retail +5% YoY).
MSN’s consolidated revenue increased 16.5% YoY in 9M21 to VND64,801bn. Consolidated net profit after
tax bounced back 267.9% from the low base of 9M20 to VND2,983bn, on the back of higher revenue and
improved operating profit margin (the retail and high-tech materials segments had strongly improved
operating profit margins).
• MSN plans to sell 100% of its animal feed business to De Heus. The deal is expected to be completed in
early-2022 and to bring MSN about VND7,200bn to de-leverage and finance the development plan of the
meat business. In addition, MSN is going to issue 4.9% of The Crown X to Korea’s SK Group for US$340m.
2022 forecast • We expect economic activity and consumer habits in Vietnam to recover to their pre-COVID conditions
in 2022, thanks to a fully vaccinated population that should reach 100% (age 18 and above) in early-2022.
• MSN’s 2022 revenue is forecast to decline 4.8% YoY, due to the impact of divestment from its animal feed
business. In contrast, revenue of all other businesses is projected to enjoy robust growth in 2022:
consumer products: +12.4% YoY, thanks to premiumization strategy; grocery retail: +19.4% YoY, based
on plans to open another 1,000 convenience stores over the next 12 months; and high-tech materials:
+7.6% YoY, thanks to better average price of tungsten. MSN’s consolidated NPAT is projected to
accelerate 37.2% YoY, thanks to: 1) lower food material prices; 2) higher tungsten price; 3) higher shared
profit from Techcombank, following approval for the bank to raise its charter capital level.
• 2022 MSN’s EPS is projected to reach a new high of VND5,311.
Key data
(%) MSN VN VN-Index Current price (02/12/2021, VND) 152,300 Market capital (VNDbn) 179,795
1,181
200
180 Net profit (21F, VNDbn) 4,052 Outstanding shares (mn)
160
Note: EPS diluted does not include bonus & welfare fund
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
29 November 2021 Masan Group
Top line grew strongly amid the 4th wave of COVID-19: The pandemic was so serious in the
3Q21 that half of the cities and provinces in the country had to lock down from July. As a result,
Vietnam’s GDP fell 6.16% YoY in 3Q21, leading to 9M21 GDP growth of only 1.4% YoY.
MSN’s net revenue reached a historical high in 9M21 (+16.5% YoY), despite the pandemic. The
consumer product segment (Masan Consumer Holdings - MCH), grocery retail (VinCommerce
- VCM), and meat chain (Masan MEATLife – MML) benefited directly from social distancing
measures, thanks to increased demand for packaged food with long shelf lives, closure of wet
markets, and higher demand for chilled meat. The high-tech materials segment (Masan High-
Tech Materials – MHT) posted incredible revenue growth of 89.3% YoY, thanks to a recovery
in the global tungsten price from 5-year low levels in 2020, and the consolidation of H.C.
Starck.
Figure 1. MSN’s net revenue accelerated significantly in 9M21, thanks to MML and MHT
Seasonings 6,329 5,646 12.1% • These 3 product lines benefited directly from increased demand for long shelf-
life packaged foods amid lockdown conditions due to COVID-19. In particular,
demand for premium instant noodles and premium fish sauce surged, as mid-
Convenience foods 5,606 4,532 23.7%
and high-income families had to find solutions for quick meals at home. In
9M21, products in the premium price segment accounted for 10% and 51% of
Processed meat N/a N/a 51.7% the revenue from seasonings and convenience foods, respectively.
• Sales of energy drinks and beer rose 62.1% and 43.2% YoY, respectively, in
9M21 as these two products has just been released in early 2020. The increase
Beverage N/a N/a 5.4%
of energy drinks and beer was offset by reduced sales of other beverage
product.
• Vietnam’s pig herd size increased by 5% YoY in 9M21, driven by high pork
prices. Thus, MSN’s animal feed revenue jumped in 9M21, as pig feed had
Animal feed 12,189 9,774 24.7%
higher selling price and greater sales volume (+26.3% YoY). On the other hand,
aqua feed sales volume rose by a modest 2.4% YoY in 9M21.
• Wet markets were closed in 19 provinces in the Mekong Delta in 3Q21, due to
Chilled meat 2,320 1,638 42.0% the fourth wave of COVID-19, leading to higher demand for chilled meat in the
modern grocery retail system.
• MML bought 51% of 3F Viet (a fresh poultry chain) from 4Q20. By 9M21, MML’s
Poultry 1,010 0 N/a poultry products have been distributed in over 2,000 sales points of
VinCommerce convenience stores nationwide.
• Global copper price surged 57% YoY in 9M21 to US$9,194/ton. However, MSN
Copper ore -28 750 N/a had no revenue from copper ore, as the company did not receive an export
permit from the government.
Other 181 16 1052.9 • Bismuth production increased 327% YoY to 1,584 tons in 9M21.
Operating profit margin (OPM) improved remarkably, thanks to VCM and MHT:
Consolidated OPM of MSN increased by 4.9%p YoY in 9M21 to 5.9%, thanks to the OPM of
VCM and MHT improving 9.0%p and 9.3%p YoY, respectively, in 9M21. In particular, VCM post
net operating loss of VND714bn in 9M21, which is much less than the loss of VND2,024bn
same period last year, thanks to the fact that MSN successfully negotiated with suppliers to
increase commercial profit margin by 3.5%, and cut operating costs, logistics costs, and other
costs. In contrast, the meat value chain saw its OPM reduced by 1.6%p YoY, due to higher
input prices and consolidation of the poultry business.
Figure 2. 9M21 average price of food material and animal feed material was higher than 9M20
600
USD/mt
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2020 2021
Soybean meal Maize Wheat
Figure 3. Operating profit increased sharply, thanks mainly to better results of grocery retail segment
Unit: VNDbn 9M21 9M20 Change Comments
Consolidated operating
3,796 524 624.8%
profit
Net profit of 9M21 increased strongly from low base of 9M20, heading to pre-
consolidation of VCM level: MCH and TCB were two major net profit contributors in 9M21,
at VND3,486bn and VND2,905bn, respectively. In addition, decreased net loss of VCM in 9M21
is the third factor that supported the net profit recovery of MSN.
Figure 4. 9M21 net profit increased strongly from same period last year.
9M21 9M20 Change Comment
Consolidated net profit
2,983 811 267.9%
after tax (NPAT)
NPAT margin 4.6% 1.5% 3.1%p
MCH 3,486 3,011 15.8%
Shared profit from MSN holds a 20% stake in Techcombank in Vietnam. In 9M21, the
2,905 1,809 60.6%
joint ventures bank posted net profit of VND11,237bn (+61% YoY).
(06/11/2021) MML to divest its animal feed business: MML plans to sell 100% of its animal
feed business to De Heus in order to focus on the meat business. In exchange, De Heus will
supply 70% of the animal feed demand of MMl and 2.8mn porkers over the next five years.
After this deal, MML will only own 100% share of its chilled meat business and 51% of its
poultry business.
We expect MML’s revenue in FY22 to decline by 72.8% YoY to VND5,711bn, driven by the
divestment. Besides, the transaction is not likely to generate new cash flows for MML, as all
shares of the animal feed business were used as payment assets for VND7,284bn-worth of
bonds issued earlier. Capital gain from the divestment will be used to reduce the group’s debt
and finance chilled meat business development.
FY22F revenue expected to decline slightly, but net profit likely to accelerate: Over 53%
of Vietnamese have been fully COVID-19 vaccinated as of 29 November, 2021. At the current
vaccination rate, we believe that Vietnam will achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 to help the
domestic consumer market recover to normal levels in the first quarter of 2022.
The sudden increase in demand for packaged foods and the closure of traditional markets
during quarantines have helped to increase MSN’s sales of packaged food and convenience
store sales in 2021. However, those two factors are not likely to be repeated in 2022. In
addition, MSN’s divestment from its animal feed business is expected to reduce MSN's
revenue by about VND15,000bn. As a result, MSN's consolidated revenue in 2022 is forecast
at VND90,154 bn, down 4.8% compared with the estimate for 2021.
MCH and TCB are forecast to continue to be the two biggest profit contributors for MSN in
2022, with profits of VND5,733bn (+18.9% YoY) and VND3,943bn (+12.4% YoY), respectively.
Profit after tax of MML in 2022 is forecast to decrease slightly, due to the absence of the
contribution of animal feed products. In 2022, MHT is expected to bring in VND465bn of NPAT
for the group (+571.7% YoY), thanks to the increase in the average selling price of tungsten
and fluorspar. Finally, VCM’s net-loss is likely to be at VND674bn, as the group plans to open
1,000 new convenience stores. Unallocated expenses in 2022 are forecast to decrease
compared with 2021, as the group's interest expenses are expected to decline in line with the
group's debt reduction plan. As a result, MSN 2022's consolidated NPAT is expected to reach
VND7,426bn, up 37.2% compared with the estimated results for 2021.
MHT OM 12.0% 8.6% 3.4%p • Higher OM is expected, thanks to higher average tungsten price.
Un-located operating
(754) (712) 6.0%
expenses
Appendix 1
Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)
* Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months.
* Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise.
* The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings.
* TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
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The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research
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No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report
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Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
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