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Ha Dao,
Vinh
Ha
CFA
Bui
DaoAnalyst
Price spread, earnings to continue recovery
Senior
Senior Analyst
Analyst
ha.dao@vcsc.com.vn • We keep our target price for DHC nearly unchanged and reiterate a BUY rating. Our aggregate
ha.dao@vcsc.com.vn
vinh.bui@vcsc.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext. 194
+8428 3914 3588 ext. 194 2023F-2025F NPAT remains unchanged as our firmer packaging ASP forecast is offset by higher
+84 28 3914 3588 ext. 191
Phap Dang, CFA old corrugated container (OCC) cost projections.
Phap Dang, CFA
Director
Vy Nguyen
Associate Director • We trim our 2023F NPAT by 3% due to a higher input OCC price assumption as market prices
phap.dang@vcsc.com.vn
phap.dang@vcsc.com.vn
Manager
+8428 3914 3588 ext. 143 are trending ahead of our expectation.
+8428 3914 3588 ext. 143
vy.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn • Both OCC and corrugated paper prices have rebounded as Chinese demand has recovered
+8428 3914 3588 ext.147 following that country’s relaxed pandemic control and lower import tariff for paper. However, the
short-term pressure of the low price spread is easing, which supports a rebound in operating
profits. We forecast DHC’s NPAT to rise 17% YoY in 2023.
• DHC’s price spread is recovering from the low base of H2 2022 as the company digests its high-
cost inventory of input OCC and market prices of both OCC and carton paper rise.
• We remain optimistic on DHC’s ability to benefit from growth in Vietnam’s packaging paper
consumption over the long term due to its cost competitiveness and capacity expansion via its
planned Giao Long 3 (GL3) factory that will expand the company’s paper capacity 120% by 2026.
• DHC's 2023F/2024F P/E of 7.2x/5.6x looks attractive vs a 10Y peer median TTM P/E of 10.4x.
• Upside catalyst: Realization of GL3 — we have not modeled this factory into our forecasts as the
company’s plan for the product mix and capex is not finalized.
• Key downside risk to our view: Pressure on selling prices due to capacity additions by competitors.
Price spread was depressed, but sales volume has been relatively resilient. Per our estimate,
2022 sales volume only declined 2% YoY (paper) and 6% YoY (packaging) as a result of weak
demand — especially from China — that dampened DHC’s customers’ exports. In addition, sales
volume of both paper and packaging bounced back QoQ in Q4 2022. We attribute this performance
to DHC’s leading cost advantage. However, the selling price and price spread of corrugated paper
continued to fall in Q4 2022, but we expect this will improve going forward.
Chinese demand is recovering amid relaxed pandemic control and lower import tariffs.
China's Ministry of Finance announced a special trade tariff schedule for 2023, including a reduction
in import tariffs on several input materials. The import tariff on corrugated paper (DHC's products)
was cut from 6% to 0% for 2023. According to DHC, the price of its paper exports to China has
increased 10% YTD. Although direct exports to China account for only 7%-10% of DHC's revenue,
Chinese paper demand contributes strongly to regional paper prices. Furthermore, Vietnam's
stronger goods exports to China should boost Vietnam's paper prices.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 1
2022: Price spread compresses as prices nosedive from
high base HOLD
Figure 1: VCSC’s forecasts for 2022
VND bn 2021 2022 2022 YoY VCSC comments on 2022
Revenue 4,164 3,942 -5%
Sales volume edged down 2% YoY and were relatively resilient against
weaker demand from DHC’s customers — especially from the export
sector — which beat our expectation. Sales volume rebounded in Q4
Paper* 3,725 3,486 -6% 2022 vs Q3 2022.
Meanwhile, ASP retreated 5% YoY, slumping further in Q4 2022 vs Q3
2022.
Mainly driven by sales volume as a result of weak packaging demand
from customers, including seafood and fruit exporters in the Mekong
Packaging* 440 415 -6% Delta. Packaging ASP remained nearly flat as packaging prices are
usually less volatile than paper prices because packaging is a smaller
cost component for direct customers.
Gross profit 673 609 -10%
Operating profit 511 451 -12%
DHC recorded net operational FX losses of USD400,000 (52% of
Profit before tax 512 435 -15%
NPAT) as the USD appreciated 3.5% vs the VND.
NPAT-MI 481 378 -21%
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 2
Figure 2: Our estimate of DHC's quarterly paper ASP and unit gross profit (VND/kg)
12,500 HOLD
3,500
12,000
3,000
11,500
2,500
11,000
10,500 2,000
10,000 1,500
9,500
1,000
9,000
500
8,500
8,000 –
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22
Paper ASP (LHS) Gross profit per kg (RHS)
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22
300
250
200
150
100
50
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 3
2023F: Earnings to rebound on high-cost inventory
digestion, recovery in packaging sales HOLD
Figure 5: VCSC’s forecasts for 2023
2023F 2023F 2023F
VND bn 2022 VCSC comments on 2023F
new YoY old
Revenue 3,942 3,862 -2% 3,703
Nearly flat sales volume vs a low 2022F base as we expect a
recovery in demand from the export sector (~50% of DHC’s end-
consumer demand) to be offset by weaker domestic
consumption.
Paper* 3,486 3,241 -7% 3,095
We assume 2023F ASP to decline 7% YoY. Nevertheless, our
assumed 2023F ASP is still slightly higher than current market
price.
We maintain our assumption that the second packaging factory
(P2) will operate at 30% of its capacity in 2023, accounting for
30% of DHC’s total packaging sales in 2023F. YoY sales growth
is from a low 2022 base and driven by a recovery in demand from
Vietnam’s exporters.
Packaging* 415 621 50% 608
However, this situation represents a delay vs management’s
original plan of fully utilizing the P2 factory by YE2023. We
attribute this delay to weak customer demand for packaging in
H2 2022 and early 2023.
Gross profit 609 684 12% 686
Operating profit 451 523 16% 631
Profit before tax 435 505 16% 641
NPAT-MI 378 443 17% 559
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 4
Valuation
We maintain a 50/50 mix of DCF/PER to value DHC. HOLD
Our assumptions regarding DHC’s planned rights issue and ESOP
In our previous Update Report, we incorporated the ESOP issuance and rights issue that were
approved at DHC’s AGM held in 2022 into our forecasts. Our EPS projections, outstanding share
projections and share count used for our DCF valuation are adjusted for the new shares related to
the ESOP issuance and the fair value element of the rights issue. We will adjust these figures for
the bonus element of the rights issue when it is completed by DHC.
Figure 6: Summary of our assumptions for DHC’s equity issuance plan
Rights issue ESOP
Timeline Early 2023 * Early 2023 *
7.0 million shares (10.0% of current 2.5 million shares (3.6% of current
Number of shares to be issued
outstanding shares) outstanding shares)
Exercise price/placement price VND27,000/share VND27,000/share
Lock-up period N/A Three years
Proceeds VND189bn (USD7.6mn) VND68bn (USD2.7mn)
Fair value element 4.36 million shares* 2.5 million shares
Bonus element 2.64 million shares* N/A
Source: Company guidance, * VCSC’s assumptions
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 5
Figure 10: Sensitivity analysis of our target price for DHC in relation to WACC and terminal
growth rate in our DCF valuation, ceteris paribus
Target price (VND)
11.1% 11.6%
WACC
12.1% 12.6%
HOLD
13.1%
0.0% 51,000 49,500 48,000 46,500 45,500
1.0% 53,000 51,500 50,000 48,500 47,000
Terminal growth (g) 2.0% 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,500 49,000
3.0% 59,500 57,000 55,000 53,000 51,000
4.0% 64,000 61,000 58,500 56,000 54,000
Source: VCSC
20
18
16
14
12
10
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
DHC Emerging Asian peers
Five-year average peer median 10-year average peer median
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 6
Recommendation History
Figure 13: Recommendation history; share prices (VND) adjusted for share splits HOLD
Target prices Actual price
100,000 O-PF
BUY M-PF 88,087 BUY O-PF
90,000 82,696 82,696 O-PF 82,783
78,522 60,870
BUY
80,000
70,087
70,000 BUY
47,500
BUY
60,000
48,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 7
Financial Statements
P/L (VND bn)
Revenue
2022
3,942
2023F
3,862
2024F
4,389
2025F
4,599
B/S (VND bn)
Cash & equivalents
2022
189
2023F
699
HOLD
2024F
926
2025F
1,345
COGS -3,333 -3,179 -3,571 -3,728 ST investments 19 19 19 19
Gross profit 609 684 818 871 Accounts receivable 782 698 842 882
Sales & Marketing exp -119 -110 -119 -122 Inventories 629 479 587 613
General & Admin exp -38 -50 -53 -55 Other current assets 44 38 38 36
Operating Profit 451 523 647 694 Total Current Assets 1,663 1,933 2,412 2,895
Financial income 21 6 22 47 Fixed assets, gross 1,699 1,787 1,849 1,912
Financial expenses -42 -30 -26 -28 - Depreciation -561 -660 -748 -839
- o/w, interest expense -19 -25 -26 -28 Fixed assets, net 1,138 1,127 1,102 1,073
Share profit/loss from associates 1 1 1 1 LT investments 5 5 5 5
Net other income/(loss) 5 5 5 5 LT assets other 76 76 76 76
Profit before Tax 435 505 647 719 Total LT assets 1,220 1,209 1,183 1,155
Income Tax -57 -62 -82 -89 Total Assets 2,882 3,142 3,595 4,050
NPAT before MI 378 443 565 630
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 Accounts payable 533 305 294 306
NPAT less MI, reported 378 443 565 630 Short-term debt 518 494 555 580
NPAT less MI, adjusted(1) 378 443 565 630 Other ST liabilities 80 34 43 49
Total current liabilities 1,131 833 892 936
EBITDA 549 622 735 785 Long term debt 0 0 0 0
EPS basic reported, VND 4,605 5,065 6,465 7,208 Other LT liabilities 0 0 0 0
EPS basic adjusted (1), VND 4,605 5,065 6,465 7,208 Total liabilities 1,131 833 892 936
EPS fully diluted (1), VND 4,605 5,065 6,465 7,208
(2)
DPS, VND 1,900 2,000 2,600 2,900 Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0
DPS/EPS (%) 41% 39% 40% 40% Share premium 235 397 397 397
(1) Adjusted for one-offs Paid in capital 700 795 795 795
Ratios 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Retained earnings 730 1,012 1,385 1,767
Growth Other equity 83 102 124 152
Revenue growth -5.3% -2.0% 13.6% 4.8% Minority interest 3 3 3 3
Op profit growth -11.6% 16.0% 23.6% 7.4% Total equity 1,752 2,309 2,703 3,114
PBT growth -14.9% 15.9% 28.3% 11.0% Total liabilities & equity 2,882 3,142 3,595 4,050
EPS growth, adjusted -21.4% 10.0% 27.6% 11.5% Y/E Shares out (mn) (3) 80.5 85.6 85.6 85.6
Y/E Shares out (mn),
80.5 90.0 90.0 90.0
post-rights issue (4)
Profitability ratios Y/E Treasury shares (mn) 0 0 0 1
Gross Profit Margin 15.4% 17.7% 18.6% 18.9% Cash Flow (VND bn) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
EBIT margin 11.4% 13.5% 14.7% 15.1% Beginning Cash Balance 98 189 699 926
EBITDA margin 13.9% 16.1% 16.7% 17.1% Net Income 378 443 565 630
NPAT-MI Margin, adj. 9.6% 11.5% 12.9% 13.7% Dep, & amortization 98 99 88 91
ROE 21.9% 21.8% 22.5% 21.7% Change in Working Cap -147 -35 -254 -44
ROA 14.3% 14.7% 16.8% 16.5% Other adjustments 22 -9 -11 -13
Cash from Operations 351 498 387 664
Efficiency ratios
Days Inventory On Hand 52 64 54 59 Capital Expenditures, net -95 -87 -63 -63
Days Accts, Receivable 67 70 64 68 Investments, net -70 0 0 0
Days Accts, Payable 42 50 30 29 Cash from Investing -165 -87 -63 -63
Cash Conversion Days 76 83 89 98
Dividends paid -168 -133 -159 -207
Liquidity/Solvency ∆ in Share Capital 0 257 0 0
Current Ratio x 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.1 ∆ in ST debt 148 -24 61 24
Quick Ratio x 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.4 ∆ in LT debt 0 0 0 0
Cash Ratio x 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.4 Other financing C/F 0 0 0 0
Debt / Assets x 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Cash from Financing -95 99 -98 -182
Debt / Capital x 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Net Debt / Equity x 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Net change in cash 91 510 227 420
Interest Coverage x 23.8 20.7 24.6 24.5 Ending Cash Balance 189 699 926 1,345
Source: VCSC, DHC. (2) Based on our (3) YE outstanding share forecast; (3) not adjusted for the bonus value element of
DHC’s upcoming rights issue; (4) adjusted for both the fair value element and the bonus element of DHC’s equity issuance.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 8
VCSC Rating System
HOLD
Stock ratings are set based on projected total shareholder return (TSR), defined as (target price – current price)/current
price + dividend yield, and are not related to market performance.
Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters are set with a 12-month horizon. Movement in share prices may
cause a temporary mismatch between the latest published rating and projected TSR for a stock based on its market price
and the latest published target price.
Target prices are generally based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's fair value over a 12-month horizon. However,
the target price may differ from the analyst's fair value if the analyst believes that the market will not price the stock in line
with assessed fair value over the specified time horizon.
Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely
affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment advice, trad e
execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative.
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Disclaimer
Analyst Certification of Independence
HOLD
We, Vinh Bui and Vy Nguyen, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject
securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive
compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm
revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.
VCSC and its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment)
and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment).VCSC may have, within the last three years, served as
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities
mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in
relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
Copyright 2023 Viet Capital Securities Company "VCSC". All rights reserved. This report has been prepared on the basis of information
believed to be reliable at the time of publication. VCSC makes no representation or warranty regarding the completeness and accuracy of such
information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication
only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of VCSC and are subject to change without notice. This report is provided, for information
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Contacts
Corporate HOLD
www.vcsc.com.vn
Head Office Hanoi Branch
Bitexco Financial Tower, 15th Floor 109 Tran Hung Dao
2 Hai Trieu Street, District 1, HCMC Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi
+84 28 3914 3588 +84 24 6262 6999
Research
Research Team: +84 28 3914 3588 Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research, ext 105
research@vcsc.com.vn alastair.macdonald@vcsc.com.vn
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> February 16, 2023 | 11