INVESTOR DIGEST

Equity Research | 01 November 2021

Economic Data HIGHLIGHT

7-DRRR (%), eop
Inflation (YoY %)
US$ 1 = Rp, period avg
Stock Market Data
(29 October2021)
JCI Index
Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 11,648.0
Market Cap ( Rp tn )
Market Data Summary*
Latest 2021F
• Construction: The Builders’ Corner – October 2021
3.50 3.05 • Bank Danamon: More Realistic Earnings Expectations, Retain Buy (BDMN; Rp2,690;
1.60 2.92 Buy; TP: Rp3,600)
14,168 14,085 • Ace Hardware: 3Q/9M21 Results - COVID Second Wave Hampered Recovery (ACES;
Rp1,410; Buy; TP: Rp1,750)
• Gudang Garam: 3Q21 Earnings Beat Our Estimate (GGRM; Rp33,500; Buy; TP:
Rp37,800)
• Mayora Indah: 3Q/9M21 Results - Commodity Price Pressure Still on the Horizon
6,591.3 1.03% (MYOR; Rp2,350; Buy; TP: Rp2,600)
• Pembangunan Perumahan: 3Q21 Results Came Below Expectations (PTPP; Rp1,205;
8,084.7
Neutral; TP: Rp1,050)
• Perusahaan Gas Negara: 3Q21 Results - Core Business Remained Solid (PGAS;
Rp1,510; Buy; TP: Rp2,000)
• Vale Indonesia: Analyst Conference Call KTA (INCO; Rp4,850; Neutral; TP: Rp5,400)

2021F 2022F

SECTOR
P/E (x) 18.8 16.8
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.2 Construction: The Builders’ Corner – October 2021
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 13.1
 Sep-2021 new contracts of big 4 SOE contractors remained subdued, with
Div. Yield (%) 2.6 2.8
potential downward revisions in the management’s FY21 new order book target.
Net Gearing (%) 23.0 19.3
The Ministry of Public Works and Housing has Rp9.7tn worth of tender offering
ROE (%) 13.0 13.4
in the pipeline. The Jakarta–Bandung high-speed railway (HSR) can be financed
EPS Growth (%) 56.5 13.0
through state budget after the newly released Presidential Decree 93/2021,
EBITDA Growth (%) 51.1 3.9
Earnings Yield (%) 5.3 6.0
while the overhang of USD 1.9bn cost overrun remains.

 Another slow new-contracts booking in Sep-2021. The big 4 SOE contractors

* Aggregate of 73 companies in MS research universe,
representing 65.1%of JCI’s market capitalization
booked Rp6.0tn new contracts in Sep-2021 (-43% MoM), bringing a 9M21 total
new order book of Rp49.8tn (+35% YoY; 42% realization of FY21 target).
Historically, the listed SOE contractors booked the majority of new contracts in
the fourth quarter, accounting for 41% of the total new contracts in 4Q17-20.
Nevertheless, the FY21 new-contracts target is skewed toward downside
revisions by 25-30%, in our view, considering the YTD achievement and the
limited tender offering in the pipeline.

 The Ministry of Public Works and Housing (PUPR)’s tender updates. In Oct-
2021, the Ministry of PUPR awarded Rp2.9tn worth of projects, with a 9M21 total
awarded tenders of Rp67.9tn. There were 5 projects, with a total project value of
Rp1.7tn awarded to listed SOE contractors in Oct-2021, wherein ADHI booked
Rp857bn from road and water transmission system projects, WSKT booked
Rp687bn from waste and flood management projects, and WIKA booked
Rp273bn from a water transmission system. In the pipeline, there are 30 sizable
projects worth >Rp150bn each, with potential new contracts of Rp9.7tn,
predominantly in water-related and road projects.

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 Revisiting Jakarta–Bandung High-Speed Railway (HSR) project. The government recently released Presidential
Decree 93/2021, allowing the HSR project to be financed by state budget and appointing Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI – non-
listed) as the project’s lead consortium, replacing WIKA. The state capital injection from 2021’s outstanding budget
(SiLPA) of Rp4.3tn will be handed to KAI to accelerate the project. The HSR’s management team also reduced one transit
station at Walini, bringing a total of four transits end-to-end. Meanwhile, there is no clarity yet about covering the cost
overrun of USD 1.9bn, which was mainly caused by delays in land acquisition and a prolonged pandemic. The current
construction progress has reached ca.80%, and the HSR is targeted to start operation in 4Q22.

NEW-CONTRACTS ACHIEVEMENTS IN 9M21 (IN RP BN)

New contracts FY21 % of FY21
Sep-21 Sep-20 9M21 9M20 y-y
(Rp bn) Target Target
WIKA 453 1,950 13,160 6,842 +92.3% 40,127 32.8%
PTPP 3,365 555 13,489 11,800 +14.3% 30,196 44.7%
WSKT 1,004 3,200 11,804 12,100 -2.4% 26,000 45.4%
ADHI 1,200 1,500 11,300 6,200 +82.3% 22,655 49.9%
Total 6,022 7,205 49,753 36,942 +34.7% 118,978 41.8%
Source: Company, FY21 target is based on the management’s initial guidance

Edbert Surya (+6221 5296 9623) edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

CORPORATE

Bank Danamon: More Realistic Earnings Expectations, Retain Buy (BDMN; Rp2,690; Buy; TP: Rp3,600)

 We cut our net profit projection by 28%-41% for 2021F-2022F to factor in slower loan growth, weaker NIM and higher
credit cost assumptions. We project BDMN’s ROE to improve to 4.7%-7.3% in 2021F-2023F, from 2.3% in 2020. We retain
our Buy recommendation with new TP of Rp3,600.

 Asset yield pick up to support NIM improvement. We project NIM of 7.5%-7.8% for 2021F-2023F, vs. 7.6% in 2020. We
attribute NIM recovery to asset yield improvement that would come from loan growth pick up and increasing proportion
of higher yielding assets. We expect BDMN to close the year with -5% YoY loan growth in 2021F, and turn around to
+4%/+7% YoY for 2022F and 2023F. We expect the corporate banking business and Adira Multifinance business (ADMF,
non-rated) to be the driver for loan growth turnaround in 2022F and 2023F.

 ADMF to mark a turning point in 4Q21. ADMF has continued to post improvement in disbursement and asset quality.
In 3Q21, ADMF posted Rp6.2tn financing disbursement, an improvement by 95% YoY from Rp1.7tn in 3Q20. BDMN
expects to see ADMF loans to mark a turning point in 4Q21, as the bank saw financing demand remained resilient despite
of second wave of Covid-19. Moreover, ADMF Covid-19 related restructured loans have declined significantly from
Rp10tn in Jun-20 to Rp72bn in Sep-21. We see that improvement in ADMF plays a vital role to BDMN’s top-line growth, as
ADMF’s loans accounted for ~30% of BDMN’s total loans and it contributed the largest yield compared to other loan
segments.

 Coverage ratio projection at ~175%. We raise our credit cost forecast to 3.9%/3.5%/3.5% for 2021F/2022F/2023F, from
4.8% in 9M21. We attribute higher credit cost assumptions to higher write-off target and provision build up to cover for
the potential losses from high risk restructured loans.

 Maintain Buy, with new TP of Rp3,600 (from previously Rp4,100). We cut our net profit projection by 28%-41% for
2021F-2022F to take into account slower loan growth, weaker NIM and higher credit cost assumptions. We project
BDMN’s ROE to improve to 4.7%/6.4%/7.3% for 2021F/2022F/2023F, from 2.3% in 2020. Our new TP implies 0.7x P/BV for
2022F and 2023F. BDMN currently trades at 0.6x and 0.5x P/BV for 2022F and 2023F.

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

FINANCIAL SUMMARY
YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Pre-Provision Profit 7,893 8,736 8,077 8,326 8,864
Net Profit 4,073 1,008 2,075 2,924 3,517
EPS 425 105 216 305 367
EPS Growth (%) 3.9 (75.3) 105.9 41.0 20.3
P/E Ratio (x) 6.3 25.6 12.4 8.8 7.3
BVPS 4,598 4,411 4,589 4,814 5,069
P/BV Ratio (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Dividend Yield (%) 5.2 7.0 1.3 2.8 3.9
ROAE (%) 9.4 2.3 4.7 6.4 7.3
CAR (%) 24.2 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.0
Source: Company (2018-2019), Mandiri Sekuritas (2020-2022)

EARNINGS REVISION
Year-end Dec 31 New Old Change (%)
(Rp bn) 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net interest income 13,961 14,125 14,762 16,051 15,523 16,491 — (9.0) (10.5) —
Total income 18,157 17,611 18,573 20,226 20,461 22,122 — (13.9) (16.0) —
Provision expenses (6,465) (5,078) (4,500) (4,351) (4,599) (4,551) — 10.4 (1.1) —
Operating expenses (9,421) (9,534) (10,246) (11,362) (10,993) (12,140) — (13.3) (15.6) —
PPOP 8,736 8,077 8,326 8,864 9,468 9,981 — (14.7) (16.6) —
Operating profit 2,271 2,999 3,827 4,513 4,869 5,430 — (38.4) (29.5) —
Reported net profit 1,008 2,075 2,924 3,517 3,538 4,034 — (41.4) (27.5) —

Loan growth (%) (5.2) (5.4) 3.9 7.4 6.3 9.1 —

Deposit growth (%) 12.7 (5.3) 5.8 6.6 4.3 5.4 —
LDR (%) 108.4 108.3 106.3 107.1 119.7 123.9 —
NPL (%) 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 —
Coverage ratio (%) 192.4 173.9 174.4 174.9 152.7 150.7 —
Write off to total loans (%) 3.8 5.4 3.5 3.0 3.2 2.7 —
Cost of credit (%) 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.0 —
NIM (%) 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.1 —
Cost to income (%) 51.9 54.1 55.2 56.2 53.7 54.9 —
ROA (%) 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 —
ROE (%) 2.3 4.7 6.4 7.3 7.8 8.4 —
CAR (%) 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.0 23.1 22.9 —
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id

Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id
Boby Chandra (+6221 5296 9533) boby.chandra@mandirisek.co.id

Ace Hardware: 3Q/9M21 Results - COVID Second Wave Hampered Recovery (ACES; Rp1,410; Buy; TP: Rp1,750)

 ACES’s results missed our and consensus forecasts on the back of the second wave with stringent mobility restrictions
during Jul–Aug 2021. The mobility recovery remained slow as relaxation was done gradually, starting mid-Aug-2021.
9M21 earnings only accounted for 41-43% of our and consensus FY21 estimates.

 Sales were below expectation, with 9M21 at 60-64% of our and consensus FY21E. ACES’s 3Q21 gross sales declined
by -29% YoY to Rp1.4tn, leading to 9M21 gross sales of Rp4.9tn, declining by -14% YoY. ACES’s SSSG was -32% YoY in
3Q21. The sales decline affected all segments, with home improvement/lifestyle/toys sales dropping by -29%/-29%/ -23%
YoY in 3Q21. The overall sales decrease was due to the COVID second wave in 3Q21 and ACES being obliged to close its
stores, both in malls and independent ones. The situation in the second wave was unlike in 2020, when ACES’s

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

independent stores were deemed essential stores and still allowed to operate. 3Q21 sales were only 64% of the pre-
COVID level, the lowest ever during the pandemic.

 Gross profit was also below expectation, with 9M21 at 61-65% of our and consensus FY21E. Gross profit was at
Rp654bn, a decline of 28% YoY, bringing the 9M21 gross profit to Rp2.3tn (-15% YoY). Interestingly, gross margin
expanded in 3Q21 to 50.4% (+1.87 ppt QoQ and +1.07 ppt YoY), which could be due to product mix.

 3Q21 EBIT declined by -69% YoY; 9M21 formed 40-44% of our and consensus FY21E. The 3Q21 EBIT reached only
Rp60bn (-69% YoY), as the opex decline was not as steep as sales reduction. However, we noticed c. 7% YoY lower rental
expense/sqm in 3Q21, which could be related to discounts provided by landlords during store closures.

 9M21 earnings accounted for 41-43% of our and consensus FY21E. 3Q21 earnings reached Rp46bn (-73% YoY).
However, we expect this to be the turning point for ACES, as we see 1) improvement in SSSG on a month-on-month basis
since the bottom in Jul-2021; and 2) recovery in mobility and footfall, given further activity relaxations from Sep-2021
onward that cover more regions.

 Working capital. Inventory days climbed up as of Sep-2021 to 292 days (vs. prior average at 245-265 days during the
pandemic, which was expected, as stores remained closed for half of 3Q21). However, the trade receivable and trade
payable days were quite stable.

3Q21/9M21 RESULT SUMMARY

ACES, Rp bn 9M19 9M20 9M21 %yoy 3Q19 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 %qoq %yoy %Mansek %Cons.
Gross sales 6,250 5,736 4,933 (14.0) 2,122 1,912 2,037 1,769 1,808 1,357 (24.9) (29.1) 60.1
Net sales 5,974 5,480 4,694 (14.3) 2,012 1,829 1,932 1,682 1,714 1,299 (24.2) (29.0) 60.0 64.2
Gross profit 2,835 2,706 2,305 (14.8) 968 902 954 820 831 654 (21.3) (27.5) 60.6 65.2
Operating profit 867 600 356 (40.7) 297 191 254 179 116 60 (48.2) (68.5) 39.8 44.2
EBITDA 953 704 467 (33.6) 327 228 291 216 154 97 (36.6) (57.3) 44.7 39.6
Net interest (35) (18) (20) 10.5 (14) (5) (2) (6) (5) (8) 54.4 67.9
Pre-tax income 895 637 394 (38.2) 309 204 289 199 143 52 (63.5) (74.4) 39.7 45.5
Net profit 722 530 323 (39.0) 249 167 204 162 115 46 (60.2) (72.6) 41.4 42.5

Growth trend, %yoy

Gross sales 16.8 -8.2 -14.0 15.0 -9.9 -10.8 -14.6 3.2 -29.1
Net sales 15.7 -8.3 -14.3 13.2 -9.1 -10.9 -14.5 1.7 -29.0
Gross profit 14.4 -4.6 -14.8 12.8 -6.8 -9.4 -15.9 0.3 -27.5
Operating profit 13.3 -30.8 -40.7 2.4 -35.6 -28.0 -33.1 -17.3 -68.5
Net profit 3.5 -26.6 -39.0 -8.3 -32.8 -31.1 -34.2 -1.1 -72.6

Margin, %
Gross margin 47.5 49.4 49.1 48.1 49.3 49.3 48.8 48.5 50.4
Opex to
32.9 38.4 41.5 33.3 38.8 36.2 38.1 41.7 45.7
revenue
Operating
14.5 10.9 7.6 14.8 10.5 13.1 10.6 6.8 4.6
margin
EBITDA margin 15.9 12.8 10.0 16.2 12.5 15.1 12.9 9.0 7.5
Net margin 12.1 9.7 6.9 12.4 9.1 10.5 9.6 6.7 3.5
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates, Bloomberg

Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA (+6221 5296 9450) inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id

Eimi Setiawan (+6221 5296 9549) eimi.setiawan@mandirisek.co.id

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Gudang Garam: 3Q21 Earnings Beat Our Estimate (GGRM; Rp33,500; Buy; TP: Rp37,800)

 Despite weaker YoY volume trend, 3Q21 revenue came ahead of our estimates after series of price increases taken since
2Q21, which also led to an above-estimate PATMI boosted by an overdue gross margin recovery with a noteworthy
decline in SG&A. Overall earnings were a miss to the street estimates amidst its aggressive margin assumption; we think
the street assumptions have not considered the actual excise pass-throughs YTD.
 3Q21 revenues of Rp31.5trn beats ours, in-line with the street. This increased 5.9%/2.1% YoY/QoQ, translating into
9M21 revenues of Rp92.1trn (+10.4% YoY), above our estimates (76% of our FY21) but in-line with consensus (73%). Our
price-weighted tracker approximately gauged 3Q21 volume growth at ca.-2.0% YoY, a reverse from the +11% YoY in
2Q21 given the stricter mobility; this is based on an implied calculation assuming a time-weighted ASP increases in 3Q21.
With the typical backloaded price increases, we expect a stronger 4Q adjacent to the much stronger mobility and
economic activities.

 3Q21 EBIT of Rp Rp2.3trn beats ours, slightly missed consensus. 3Q21 EBIT delivered a big sequential jump (+234.6%
QoQ) from Rp0.7trn in 2Q21, despite declining YoY print (-3.1% YoY). This is notably driven by the 46.4% QoQ jump in
3Q21 gross profit to Rp3.9trn, despite a mere +2.1% increase in revenues, as gross margin increased 3.7ppt QoQ to 12.2%.
This as an overdue margin recovery after the surprisingly disappointing 2Q21, considering that GGRM already raised
prices by around ca.3.4% in 2Q21 and a further 3.3% in 3Q21, both a volume-weighted basis. Selling expenses edged up
1.3% QoQ but G&A declined 41.1% QoQ, hence an overall 19% QoQ decline in SG&A.

 3Q21 PATMI came at Rp1.8trn, ahead of ours but below the street. This translates into a QoQ jump of 223.4%, which
was driven by gross margin recovery, but flat YoY considering the much stricter mobility in 3Q21 and pressures from the
higher excise tariffs. On a 9M21 basis, GGRM delivered Rp4.1trn in PATMI, down 26.8% YoY, forming 78% of our estimates
(above) but only 67% of the street’s (below).

 Valuation and PT. At this price (9.8x 2022 PE), GGRM is undemanding considering its 7.8% dividend yield. While we have
a Buy rating over a 12-month horizon, share price overhang may persist until certainty over 2022 excise tariff policy is
known.

GGRM 9M21 RESULT

% of % of
GGRM (Rp bn) 9M21 9M20 YoY 3Q21 3Q20 YoY 2Q21 QoQ
Mansek Consensus
Revenue 92,071 83,375 10.4% 31,484 29,720 5.9% 30,840 2.1% 76% 73%
SKM 84,573 76,086 11.2% 28,959 27,287 6.1% 28,451 1.8% 76%
SKT 6,323 6,379 -0.9% 2,110 2,162 -2.4% 2,030 4.0% 75%
Others 1,175 910 29.0% 415 271 52.9% 360 15.4% 89%
COGS (81,672) (70,391) 16.0% (27,627) (25,398) 8.8% (28,207) -2.1% 77% 76%
Gross profit 10,399 12,984 -19.9% 3,856 4,323 -10.8% 2,634 46.4% 71% 59%
Selling expenses (3,126) (3,144) -0.6% (1,040) (1,022) 1.8% (1,028) 1.3% 73%
G&A expenses (2,208) (2,393) -7.7% (546) (959) -43.0% (928) -41.1% 61%
EBIT 5,065 7,447 -32.0% 2,270 2,342 -3.1% 678 234.6% 75% 69%
Net interest income (42) (354) -88.3% (9) (75) -88.0% (3) 173.4%
Others 256 186 37.6% 64 74 -12.6% 50 28.2%
Pretax profit 5,279 7,279 -27.5% 2,325 2,341 -0.7% 725 220.6% 77% 69%
Tax (1,145) (1,632) -29.8% (501) (514) -2.6% (161) 210.9%
Minority interests (0) (0) n.a. (0) (0) n.a. 0 n.a.
Net profit 4,135 5,647 -26.8% 1,824 1,826 -0.1% 564 223.4% 78% 67%

Margins
Gross 11.3% 15.6% -4.3% 12.2% 14.5% -2.3% 8.5% 3.7%
EBIT 5.5% 8.9% -3.4% 7.2% 7.9% -0.7% 2.2% 5.0%
EBIT - Cigarettes only 5.5% 9.7% -4.2% 7.0% 8.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.0%
Net profit 4.5% 6.8% -2.3% 5.8% 6.1% -0.4% 1.8% 4.0%
Source: Company

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

Eimi Setiawan (+6221 5296 9549) eimi.setiawan@mandirisek.co.id

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Mayora Indah: 3Q/9M21 Results - Commodity Price Pressure Still on the Horizon (MYOR; Rp2,350; Buy; TP: Rp2,600)

 MYOR printed soft results in 3Q/9M21, with earnings decreasing by 92% YoY. The 3Q21 earnings missed consensus,
dragged by elevated commodity prices, which pressured margin. However, the company booked decent sales growth of
4% YoY in 3Q21, which was in line with consensus expectation.

 Sales were in line. The 3Q21 sales stood at Rp6.7tn (+4% YoY), supported by domestic sales growth at +12% YoY, while
export sales declined by -7% YoY. Lower export sales in the 3Q21 were due to lockdowns in several export destinations,
such as China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Packaged food sales grew by +17% YoY, while packaged beverage suffered -
12% YoY in 3Q21, as the latter was dominated by export sales. The 9M21 sales of Rp19.9tn (+13% YoY) were in line with
consensus expectation, forming 72% of FY21E.

 Belt-tightening gross margin. The 3Q21 gross margin (GM) declined by 7.2 ppt YoY/2.2 ppt QoQ to 22.2% as
commodity prices remained elevated. Packaged food GM was cut by -5.2 ppt YoY/+0.8 ppt QoQ to 19.1%. Packaged
beverage GM also decreased by -8.4 ppt YoY/-4.6 ppt QoQ to 27.0%. The company had a small price increase in Jul-2021,
while the bigger increase was in Sep-2021, thus visible from 4Q21 onward. The 3Q21 gross profit reached Rp1.5tn (-22%
YoY) and brought the 9M21 cumulative to Rp5.1tn (-4% YoY), accounting for 64% of FY21E, thus below consensus
forecast.

 Operations. Operating profit declined by -72% YoY to Rp196bn as opex rose. MYOR spent 13.2% A&P expense % sales in
3Q21, a similar level to 13.4% in 2Q21/13.5% in 3Q20. The 9M21 operating profit of Rp1.4tn (-25% YoY) missed consensus
estimate by forming 46% of consensus FY21E.

 NPAT. The company recorded Rp69bn foreign exchange loss in 3Q21 vs. Rp178bn gain in 3Q20. All in all, 3Q21 earnings
were at Rp47bn, showing a -92% YoY decline, while 9M21 earnings of Rp978bn were down by -37% YoY, missing
consensus by forming 44% of consensus FY21E. Stripping off forex impact, MYOR booked Rp101bn core profit (-79% YoY)
in 3Q21.

 Working capital. Overall working capital days as of Sep-2021 remained at 99 days, which was low compared to even the
pre-COVID level. Receivable days expansion to 72 days as of Sep-2021 (from 63 days in Jun-21) was countered by longer
payable days to 34 days as of Sep-2021 (from 29 days in Jun-2021). Inventory days also decreased to 61 days as of Sep-
2021. As per Sep-2021, MYOR was in a net debt position of Rp1.7tn, as it added Rp1.1tn of ST bank loan in 3Q21.

3Q21/9M21 RESULT SUMMARY

MYOR IJ
Rp bn 9M21 9M20 % YoY 3Q21 3Q20 % YoY 2Q21 % QoQ % of CONS
Net sales 19,888 17,581 13.1% 6,734 6,499 3.6% 5,818 15.7% 71.5%
COGS 14,801 12,290 20.4% 5,241 4,587 14.2% 4,400 19.1%
Gross profit 5,086 5,291 -3.9% 1,493 1,912 -21.9% 1,418 5.3% 64.3%
Selling expense 3,071 2,838 8.2% 1,111 1,024 8.5% 974 14.1%
G&A expense 574 538 6.7% 186 188 -1.2% 195 -4.4%
Operating profit 1,442 1,916 -24.7% 196 699 -71.9% 250 -21.4% 46.3%
Pretax profit 1,302 2,036 -36.0% 61 806 -92.5% 153 -60.2% 44.5%
Net profit 978 1,557 -37.2% 47 618 -92.3% 108 -56.0% 44.2%
Core profit 937 1,319 -29.0% 101 480 -78.9% 134 -24.5%

Gross margin 25.6% 30.1% -4.5% 22.2% 29.4% -7.2% 24.4% -2.2%
Operating margin 7.3% 10.9% -3.6% 2.9% 10.8% -7.8% 4.3% -1.4%
Pre-tax margin 6.5% 11.6% -5.0% 0.9% 12.4% -11.5% 2.6% -1.7%
Net margin 4.9% 8.9% -3.9% 0.7% 9.5% -8.8% 1.9% -1.1%

Segmental performance 9M21 9M20 % YoY 3Q21 3Q20 % YoY 2Q21 % QoQ
Sales by region
Domestic sales 11,765 10,462 12.5% 4,021 3,581 12.3% 3,384 18.8%
Export sales 8,136 7,134 14.0% 2,718 2,929 -7.2% 2,436 11.5%

Packaged Food
Sales 11,262 9,528 18.2% 4,141 3,549 16.7% 3,172 30.5%
Gross margin 20.5% 24.7% -4.2% 19.1% 24.4% -5.2% 18.3% 0.8%

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MYOR IJ
Rp bn 9M21 9M20 % YoY 3Q21 3Q20 % YoY 2Q21 % QoQ % of CONS
EBIT margin 4.6% 9.7% -5.2% 5.0% 13.5% -8.5% -1.3% 6.2%

Packaged Beverages
Sales 8,626 8,053 7.1% 2,593 2,950 -12.1% 2,646 -2.0%
Gross margin 32.1% 36.5% -4.3% 27.0% 35.5% -8.4% 31.6% -4.6%
EBIT margin 10.8% 12.3% -1.5% -0.3% 7.5% -7.9% 11.0% -11.3%
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA (+6221 5296 9450) inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id
Eimi Setiawan (+6221 5296 9549) eimi.setiawan@mandirisek.co.id
Pembangunan Perumahan: 3Q21 Results Came Below Expectations (PTPP; Rp1,205; Neutral; TP: Rp1,050)

 3Q21 core profit showed a decent QoQ improvement, although the cumulative 9M21 earnings missed
MANSEK/consensus estimates at 47%/33%. Construction service revenues showed solid recovery with margin
improvement, which is likely to continue in 4Q21. Net gearing inched up to 95%. Maintain our Neutral call.

 3Q21 net profit came below expectations. 3Q21 earnings came at Rp43.4bn (-9.2% QoQ; +65.9% YoY) with 9M21 net
profit at Rp129.4bn (+207.4% YoY), accounting for 47%/33% of MANSEK/consensus estimates—below the average 9M17-
19 achievement at 64%. The 3Q21 core profit returned positive to Rp72.7bn (2Q21 core loss: Rp26.5bn) on the back of
stronger revenues, bringing the 9M21 core profit to Rp134.5bn (+22.1% YoY).

 3Q21 revenues came at Rp4.7tn (+31.4% QoQ; +40.8% YoY) and 9M21 revenues at Rp11.2tn (+10.8% YoY), forming
65%/61% of MANSEK/consensus estimates. 3Q21 construction service revenues (83% of total revenues) accelerated by
50.1% QoQ/58.4% YoY, while property and EPC segments remained subdued. We expect the solid recovery in
construction service to continue in 4Q21, driven by the reopening economy and normal construction activity.

 3Q21 EBIT after JV income came at Rp586.3bn (+79.3% QoQ; +62.1% YoY) and 9M21 EBIT at Rp1.3tn (+40.5% YoY).
3Q21 EBIT margin improved to 12.3% due to 1) robust construction service margin; and 2) normalization in opex-to-sales
at 3.1%, compared to 2Q21 at 4.9% due to the recurring festive allowances. PTPP’s JV income was still primarily driven by
the RDMP (oil refinery) project and the Kediri International Airport with 9M21 JV income accelerated by 55.9% YoY to
Rp341.7bn.

 Balance sheet relatively solid. PTPP’s net debt inched up to Rp13.8tn (Jun-2021: Rp13.4tn), bringing its net gearing to
95.0% (Jun-2021: Rp93.6%). On the inventory, PTPP property’s buildings-and-house net stock climbed to Rp3.4tn (Jun-
2021: Rp2.8tn; Dec-2020: Rp1.9tn). The company’s 9M21 OCF came at -Rp1.0tn, still a proper level compared to 9M20 at –
Rp4.1tn.

 We have a Neutral rating on a 12-month horizon due to lower-than-expected new contracts booking in 9M21 at
Rp13.5tn (+14.3% YoY) and the subdued 2022 infra draft budget. The company’s 1-year forward PE at 16.0x is still
somewhat demanding, in our view. Key risks: CAPEX deceleration from private and SOE companies and a COVID-19 third
wave.

PTPP 3Q21 RESULTS

% of % of
YE Dec (Rpbn) 9M21 9M20 %yoy 3Q21 2Q21 %qoq 3Q20 %yoy FY21F FY21C
ours cons.
Revenue 11,211.8 10,123.0 10.8% 4,754.4 3,618.6 31.4% 3377.1 40.8% 17,354 64.6 18,465 60.7
Gross profit after JV 1,762.8 1,359.7 29.6% 732.6 503.0 45.6% 484.8 51.1% 2,343 75.2 2,539 69.4
Operating profit 1,302.8 927.1 40.5% 586.3 327.0 79.3% 361.8 62.1% 1,716 75.9 1,475 88.3
Pretax profit 595.2 384.7 54.7% 249.1 206.0 20.9% 139.4 78.7% 1,022 58.2 1,022 58.2
Net profit 129.4 42.1 207.4% 43.4 47.8 -9.2% 26.2 65.9% 274 47.2 391 33.1

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% of % of
YE Dec (Rpbn) 9M21 9M20 %yoy 3Q21 2Q21 %qoq 3Q20 %yoy FY21F FY21C
ours cons.
Gross margin (%) 15.7 13.4 15.4 13.9 14.4 13.5 13.8
Operating margin (%) 11.6 9.2 12.3 9.0 10.7 9.9 8.0
Pretax margin (%) 5.3 3.8 5.2 5.7 4.1 5.9 5.5
Net margin (%) 1.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.6 2.1

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Edbert Surya (+6221 5296 9623) edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

Perusahaan Gas Negara: 3Q21 Results - Core Business Remained Solid (PGAS; Rp1,510; Buy; TP: Rp2,000)

 PGN booked USD90mn/USD71mn Net/Core Profit in 3Q21, with 9M21 figure formed 98.5% of our FY21 Net Profit
estimate, and surpassed consensus estimates. Distribution margin dropped on QoQ basis, but we highlight that PGN
managed to maintain its margin at USD1.83/MMBTU in 9M21. Earnings upgrade in the market is inevitable with the
limited one-off expenses in 4Q21, we think. Retain BUY.

 3Q21 Revenues of USD790mn (+15.8% YoY, +8.0% QoQ) were relatively in-line with our estimate. Gas-related
business (i.e. Gas distribution, gas transmission, gas processing, and regasification) booked lower revenue growth at 3.4%
YoY in 3Q21 vs. 14.3% YoY in 2Q21. This can be attributed to slower gas distribution revenue growth at 2.2% YoY in 3Q21
vs. 15.7% YoY in 2Q21 despite PGN booking 8.7% YoY distribution volume increase in the same period. Effective
distribution ASP declined 6.0% YoY in 3Q21 to USD7.04/MMBTU as PGN booked more volume from high-priority
industries at 62.2% of the total distribution volume in 3Q21 vs. 56.3% in 2Q21. Meanwhile, the blended toll fee for the
transmission business increased from USD0.42/MMBTU in 3Q20 to USD0.51/MMBTU in 3Q21. Oil and gas revenue jumped
from USD42mn in 3Q20 to USD119mn in 3Q21, following stronger Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) on YTD basis. Other
revenues (i.e. Oil transportation and others) increased 98.5% YoY in 3Q21. On 9-month basis, PGN reported USD2.25bn
Revenues in 9M21, up 4.8% YoY and forming 71.5%/74.6% of our/consensus FY21 Revenue estimates.

 3Q21 Operating Profit of USD118mn (-4.1% YoY, -0.2% QoQ) missed our estimate by 6.8%. Cost of revenue increased
15.7% YoY in 3Q21, primarily from the distribution and upstream business. Distribution margin dropped from
USD2.24/MMBTU in 2Q21 to USD1.64/MMBTU in 3Q21 despite a stable effective distribution cost at USD5.4/MMBTU.
Operating expenses increased 40.2% YoY in 3Q21 as both Distribution & Transmission expenses and G&A expenses
booked 39.6% YoY and 41.5% YoY increase respectively. On 9-month basis, PGN reported USD329mn Operating Profit
in 9M21, up 2.2% YoY and forming 70.2%/91.7% of our/consensus FY21 Operating Profit estimates.

 3Q21 Net Profit of USD90mn vs. USD47mn Net Profit in 3Q20, beat our estimate. PGN booked USD14mn non-operating
income in 3Q21. This can be attributed to: 1) USD17mn tax reversal as the company won a VAT case at Supreme Court in
3Q21 and; 2) USD7mn FX gain. Excluding one-off gains from tax reversal and FX impact, PGN booked USD71mn core
profit in 3Q21, up 15.3% YoY. On 9-month basis, PGN reported USD286mn Net Profit in 9M21 vs. USD53mn in 9M20.
This figure formed 98.5% of our FY21 Net Profit estimate and far surpassed consensus’ FY21 PATAMI estimate.

 Maintain BUY. Although the gross distribution margin dropped on QoQ basis, we highlight that PGN managed to
maintain its gross distribution margin at USD1.83/MMBTU in 9M21. We expect the company to maintain the margin at
USD1.8-1.9/MMBTU in upcoming quarters. More earnings upside in 4Q21 will depend on the cost leadership program,
especially on the opex, as we think PGN will not book major one-off expenses (i.e. tax provisions and asset impairments).
Nevertheless, solid net profit and core profit trends in 3Q21 will lead to an earnings upgrade in the market.

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PGAS: 3Q21 RESULTS

vs. % FY21F % FY21F
in USD mn 3Q20 2Q21 3Q21 3Q21F % YoY % QoQ 9M20 9M21 % YoY
Mansek's Mansek Cons
Gas distribution 560 570 573 608 2.2% 0.6% -5.7% 1,746 1,739 -0.4%
Oil and gas sales 42 80 119 90 n.a. 47.6% 31.9% 144 246 71.3%
Gas transmission 49 47 59 63 20.1% 25.4% -7.3% 162 164 1.3%
Gas processing 21 19 20 12 -3.8% 7.1% 70.0% 62 60 -1.9%
Gas regasification - - - - n.a. n.a. n.a. - - n.a.
Oil transportation 4 5 5 4 12.6% -8.4% 20.1% 13 13 2.6%
Others 6 11 15 14 n.a. 35.2% 3.6% 24 31 27.6%
Revenues 682 731 790 791 15.8% 8.0% -0.1% 2,151 2,254 4.8% 71.5% 74.6%

Purchase, processing and

376 382 424 434 12.5% 10.9% -2.3% 1,164 1,254 7.7%
transportation of natural gas
Oil & gas operation 54 69 76 72 41.5% 10.8% 6.2% 191 209 9.6%
LNG expenses 24 21 16 24 -33.1% -22.3% -32.7% 79 49 -38.0%
Gas processing (1) 6 5 3 n.a. -16.4% 57.7% 17 17 -1.2%
Rent & other services 3 5 7 6 n.a. 40.7% 22.8% 12 13 12.0%
Cost of revenues 456 483 528 539 15.7% 9.5% -1.9% 1,463 1,543 5.4%

Distribution & transmission

69 84 96 80 39.6% 14.3% 20.2% 244 253 3.9%
expenses
G&A expenses 33 46 47 45 41.5% 1.7% 4.5% 122 129 6.0%
Operating expenses 102 130 143 125 40.2% 9.8% 14.5% 365 382 4.6%

Operating income 123 118 118 127 -4.1% -0.2% -6.8% 322 329 2.2% 70.2% 91.7%
% Operating margin 18.1% 16.2% 15.0% 16.0% -312bps -123bps -107bps 15.0% 14.6% -38bps

Finance cost (40) (44) (38) (45) -5.2% -15.6% -16.5% (124) (118) -4.7%
Finance income 11 8 6 6 -41.4% -20.6% 2.7% 27 19 -28.9%
Impairment reversal/(loss) of
- - - - n.a. n.a. n.a. (59) - -100.0%
oil & gas properties
FX gains/(losses) (18) 4 7 (6) n.a. 61.1% n.a. (27) 20 n.a.
Gains/(losses) on change in
- - - - n.a. n.a. n.a. - - n.a.
fair value of derivatives
Other one-off
- 48 17 16 n.a. -65.3% 4.9% (12) 65 n.a.
gains/(expenses)
Share in profit/(loss) of joint
11 20 25 20 122.7% 22.0% 22.9% 34 75 120.8%
ventures
Other income/(expenses) (1) (4) (3) 5 n.a. -23.1% n.a. (7) (3) n.a.
Non-Operating
(37) 32 14 (4) n.a. -57.4% n.a. (168) 57 n.a.
income/(losses)

Pretax income 86 151 132 123 n.a. -12.4% 7.4% 154 387 n.a.

Income taxes (30) (6) (23) (50) -21.5% 281.1% -53.6% (70) (57) -18.4%

Minority interests (10) (10) (19) (20) 91.9% 97.2% -4.9% (31) (44) 40.7%

PATAMI 47 135 90 53 n.a. -33.5% 69.9% 53 286 n.a. 98.5% 160.3%

% PATAMI margin 6.8% 18.4% 11.4% 6.7% 453bps -709bps 468bps 2.5% 12.7% 1022bps

Normalized PATAMI 61 92 71 45 15.3% -23.4% 58.3% 117 218 86.1%

% Normalized PATAMI margin 9.0% 12.6% 9.0% 5.7% -4bps -368bps 331bps 5.4% 9.6% 422bps

vs.
Operating stats 3Q20 2Q21 3Q21 3Q21F % YoY % QoQ 9M20 9M21 % YoY
Mansek's
Distribution business metrics
Distribution volume
814 819 885 881 8.7% 8.0% 0.5% 812 873 7.6%
(MMSCFD)
Distribution volume
814,000 819,440 885,130 880,946 8.7% 8.0% 0.5% 812,000 873,410 7.6%
(MMBTUD)

Effective distribution ASP

7,484 7,638 7,037 7,497 -6.0% -7.9% -6.1% 7,848 7,293 -7.1%
(USD/MMSCF)
Effective distribution ASP 7.48 7.64 7.04 7.50 -6.0% -7.9% -6.1% 7.85 7.29 -7.1%

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

vs. % FY21F % FY21F

in USD mn 3Q20 2Q21 3Q21 3Q21F % YoY % QoQ 9M20 9M21 % YoY
Mansek's Mansek Cons
(USD/MMBTU)

Effective distribution costs

5,350 5,400 5,401 5,649 1.0% 0.0% -4.4% 5,588 5,466 -2.2%
(USD/MMSCF)
Effective distribution costs
5.35 5.40 5.40 5.65 1.0% 0.0% -4.4% 5.59 5.47 -2.2%
(USD/MMBTU)

Effective gross spread

2,134 2,238 1,636 1,849 -23.3% -26.9% -11.5% 2,260 1,827 -19.1%
(USD/MMSCF)
Effective gross spread
2.13 2.24 1.64 1.85 -23.3% -26.9% -11.5% 2.26 1.83 -19.1%
(USD/MMBTU)
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Henry Tedja, CFA (+6221 5296 9434) henry.tedja@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

Vale Indonesia: Analyst Conference Call KTA (INCO; Rp4,850; Neutral; TP: Rp5,400)

 INCO’s strong 3Q21 was driven by higher ASP and higher production. We expect lower production in 4Q21 amid the
Furnace #4 rebuild in mid-Dec, which will lead to higher costs. We reiterate our Neutral call, with a higher TP of Rp5,400
after imputing a higher earnings forecast.

 Furnace #4 rebuild will be delayed to mid-Dec. The Furnace #4 rebuild (originally scheduled in mid-Nov) will be
delayed to mid-Dec due to the expatriates’ permit issues amid the pandemic. As such, the company indicates potential
upside on FY21F production guidance of 64k tons, given an additional 2-3 weeks production, at the expense of FY22F
production. The maintenance is expected to last for at least 21 weeks. As a result, around USD 12mn of the related capex
has been shifted to next year, while most materials needed have been incurred in 2021. INCO produced 48.4k tons of
nickel in matte (-13% YoY), accounting for 76% of our FY21F target.

 Higher costs in Q4, given rising fuel costs and lower production. While rising fuel, oil, and coal costs have been largely
expected, lower production in 4Q21 due to the Furnace #4 rebuild will increase INCO’s production cost/ton due to lower
output. The management also mentioned that despite record-high coal prices, the cost of using coal remains a cheaper
alternative for the dryer (nickel ore) relative to oil. In 3Q21, coal consumption increased by 28% QoQ, while HSFO and
diesel consumption decreased by 10% QoQ and 4% QoQ, respectively. Despite all that, as part of the effort toward de-
carbonization and to avoid increasing greenhouse emissions, INCO has canceled its Coal Conversion Project, thus is
expected to save USD 40mn per year. Meanwhile, the government’s plan to cap domestic coal price to non-power
companies should be positive for INCO, as it currently pays its coal purchase based on market price.

 Maintain Neutral, raised TP to Rp5,400/share. We upgrade our FY21F-23F net profit by 28-39%, mainly driven by
higher FY21F/22F/23F nickel price assumptions to USD 18k/17k/16k from USD 17k/16k/15k. We reiterate our Neutral call
on INCO but with a higher NPV-based TP of Rp5,400/share (7.4% WACC, USD 15.0k/ton LT nickel price, and 0% terminal
growth). Our Neutral call on INCO is due to the lack of near-term production growth.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY
YE Dec (US$ Mn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
EBITDA 235 266 374 430 404
Net Profit 57 83 163 210 194
Fully-diluted EPS 0.6 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.9
Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) (5.1) 44.3 96.6 28.8 (7.7)
P/E Ratio (x) 60.5 41.4 20.9 16.2 17.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 11.4 7.7 6.2 6.0
P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROAE (%) 3.0 4.2 7.7 9.2 7.8
Source: Company (2019-2020), Mandiri Sekuritas (2021-2023)

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CHANGES IN FORECAST
INCO 2021F 2022F 2023F
In US$mn New Old %change New Old %change New Old %change
Profit & Loss
Revenue 915 864 6% 985 953 3% 953 917 4%
COGS (674) (670) 1% (684) (712) -4% (675) (710) -5%
Gross profit 241 194 24% 301 241 25% 278 207 34%
Operating profit 229 182 25% 288 228 26% 266 195 36%
Net profit 163 127 28% 210 164 28% 194 140 39%

Gross margin 26.3% 22.4% 30.5% 25% 29.2% 23%

Operating margin 25.0% 21.1% 29.2% 24% 27.9% 21%
Net margin 17.8% 14.7% 21.3% 17% 20.3% 15%

Sales (Mt) 64,000 64,000 0% 73,000 75,000 -3% 75,000 77,000 -3%
ASP (US$/ton) 14,293 13,499 6% 13,499 12,705 6% 12,705 11,911 7%
Total cash cost - Ex Royalty (US$/ton) 10,533 10,475 1% 9,376 9,495 -1% 9,000 9,219 -2%
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

Ariyanto Kurniawan (+6221 5296 9682) ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id

Wesley Louis Alianto (+6221 5296 9510) wesley.alianto@mandirisek.co.id

FROM THE PRESS

SIDO news snippets

SIDO has commenced export of essential oil business last Friday (29/10), marked by its first batch of export of 16 tons
patchouli essential oil to France (value Rp9.3bn). Export was done thru its subsidiary, PT Semarang Herbal Indoplant (SHI).
Company will gradually ship 61 tons of patchouli oil up to end of Nov-21 (value Rp36bn). It will also sell other essential oil,
such as ginger, citronella, etc.
Comment: According to SIDO, essential oil market is big in Indonesia as Indo’s FY20 export of essential oils was at Rp2.7tn. SIDO also
has expertise in the field and spare capacity, as its subsidiary’s extraction facility utilization still low at 50%. The essential oil segment
is expected to contribute 2% of sales and to have c. 22-30% gross profit margin. Exporting essential oil is also one of SIDO strategy to
attain export target of 4% sales in 2021 vs 9M21 export 3% sales.

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

YTD Chg YTD YTD

Indices Last Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) Last Chg (%)
(%) Chg (%) Chg (%)

JCI 6,591.3 +1.0 +10.2 Rp/US$ 14,168 -0.04 -0.8 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 83.57 +0.9 +72.2
Dow Jones 35,819.6 +0.3 +17.0 US$/EUR 1.156 -1.05 +5.7 Copper (US$/mt) 9,496 -1.8 +22.3
Nikkei 28,892.7 +0.3 +5.3 YEN/US$ 113.95 +0.33 -9.4 Nickel (US$/mt) 19,448 -0.6 +17.1
Hang Seng 25,377.2 -0.7 -6.8 SGD/US$ 1.349 +0.31 -2.0 Gold (US$/oz) 1,783 -0.9 -6.1
STI 3,198.2 -0.2 +12.5 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 36,888 +2.9 +81.5
Ishares indo 23.9 +0.3 +2.2 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 5,026 +2.0 +39.6
Coal (US$/ton) 223.5 -0.1 +177.6
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 195.5 +0.0 -12.1
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow -24.4 +2,802 5Yr 4.93 +1 -28 61.27 +0.7 +41.4
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow +36.2 -768 10Yr 6.06 +2 +17 Baltic Dry Index 3,519.0 -3.0 +157.6

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
MANSEK universe 6,591 6,850 3.9 4,728,931 250,886 283,479 18.8 16.8 2.3 2.2 13.6 13.1 56.5% 13.0% 2.6% 2.8%
Banking 2,140,168 87,878 113,698 24.2 19.0 2.6 2.4 N.A. N.A. 39.8% 29.4% 1.7% 2.2%
BBCA Buy 7,475 7,600 1.7 921,481 30,524 34,015 30.2 27.1 4.9 4.5 N.A. N.A. 12.5% 11.4% 1.5% 1.6%
BBNI Buy 7,000 8,000 14.3 130,541 9,021 15,727 14.5 8.3 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 175.0% 74.3% 0.6% 1.7%
BBRI Buy 4,250 5,200 22.4 628,410 28,840 39,497 21.8 15.9 2.2 2.1 N.A. N.A. 28.2% 37.0% 2.8% 3.8%
BBTN Buy 1,780 2,200 23.6 18,850 2,153 2,660 8.8 7.1 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 34.4% 23.5% 0.1% 0.0%
BDMN Buy 2,690 4,100 52.4 26,291 3,538 4,034 7.3 6.4 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 2.7% 4.7%
BJBR Neutral 1,425 1,700 19.3 14,020 1,744 2,023 8.0 6.9 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 6.9% 7.0%
BJTM Buy 780 900 15.4 11,702 1,557 1,810 7.5 6.5 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 6.5% 6.7%
BNGA Buy 1,045 1,400 34.0 26,263 3,766 4,398 7.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 87.1% 16.8% 4.2% 7.9%
BNLI Neutral 1,730 2,900 67.6 79,572 1,170 2,366 48.1 36.9 2.2 2.8 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 790 1,100 39.2 19,024 2,956 3,375 6.4 5.6 0.4 0.4 N.A. N.A. -4.8% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 3,810 4,000 5.0 29,351 1,449 2,030 20.3 14.5 4.2 3.4 N.A. N.A. 69.5% 40.2% 0.8% 1.5%
BFIN Buy 1,050 1,200 14.3 15,713 1,076 1,363 14.6 11.5 2.1 1.9 N.A. N.A. 53.4% 26.7% 1.7% 2.7%
ARTO Buy 15,500 22,000 41.9 214,772 -34 242 -6,357.7 885.8 26.1 25.3 N.A. N.A. 86.0% N/M 0.0% 0.0%
AMOR Buy 3,760 4,700 25.0 4,178 100 139 41.9 30.0 13.4 13.1 32.4 23.6 18.9% 39.8% 2.3% 3.2%
Construction & materials 169,123 4,579 7,095 36.9 23.8 1.4 1.4 13.7 11.7 N/M 54.9% 1.9% 2.0%
INTP Buy 11,825 16,230 37.3 43,531 1,764 2,255 24.7 19.3 2.0 2.1 11.4 9.9 -2.4% 27.9% 6.1% 6.0%
SMGR Buy 9,100 12,590 38.4 53,977 2,755 3,328 19.6 16.2 1.5 1.4 8.7 7.7 -1.3% 20.8% 0.5% 1.0%
ADHI Neutral 1,050 890 (15.2) 3,739 93 234 40.2 16.0 0.7 0.6 9.1 8.0 288.0% 151.3% 0.1% 0.5%
PTPP Neutral 1,205 1,050 (12.9) 7,471 274 348 27.3 21.5 0.7 0.7 10.1 8.7 112.9% 26.9% 0.5% 1.1%
WIKA Neutral 1,245 1,100 (11.6) 11,155 282 470 39.5 23.7 0.8 0.8 15.0 12.1 52.0% 66.5% 0.5% 0.8%
WSKT Neutral 920 1,030 12.0 12,311 -1,261 -1,909 -9.8 -6.4 2.0 2.8 66.4 42.7 82.9% -51.4% 0.0% 0.0%
WTON Neutral 272 270 (0.7) 2,371 95 190 24.9 12.5 0.7 0.6 7.5 5.9 -25.6% 99.8% 1.6% 1.2%
WSBP Neutral 155 140 (9.7) 4,086 -510 -484 -8.0 -8.4 6.3 9.8 44.1 35.0 89.3% 5.1% 0.0% -6.2%
JSMR Buy 4,200 6,640 58.1 30,483 1,087 2,663 28.0 11.4 1.5 1.4 11.9 10.3 117.0% 145.0% 0.3% 0.7%
Consumer staples 682,808 38,753 44,529 17.6 15.3 3.3 3.1 11.2 10.2 -9.0% 14.9% 4.6% 4.4%
ICBP Buy 8,800 12,250 39.2 102,625 6,674 7,670 15.4 13.4 3.1 2.8 11.4 10.5 1.3% 14.9% 3.2% 3.2%
INDF Buy 6,350 9,800 54.3 55,753 5,558 6,207 10.0 9.0 1.3 1.2 7.1 7.0 -13.9% 11.7% 6.9% 6.0%
MYOR Buy 2,350 2,600 10.6 52,544 2,190 2,466 24.0 21.3 4.2 3.7 13.8 12.3 -9.2% 12.6% 1.7% 1.6%
UNVR Neutral 4,420 5,400 22.2 168,623 5,800 6,120 29.1 27.6 48.4 45.4 20.1 19.0 -19.0% 5.5% 4.2% 3.4%
GGRM Buy 33,500 37,800 12.8 64,457 5,328 6,591 12.1 9.8 1.1 1.1 7.4 6.6 -30.3% 23.7% 7.8% 7.8%
HMSP Buy 1,035 1,750 69.1 120,389 8,189 9,964 14.7 12.1 4.1 3.8 9.7 8.2 -4.6% 21.7% 7.2% 6.9%
KLBF Buy 1,600 1,600 0.0 75,000 2,939 3,076 25.5 24.4 4.0 3.7 16.9 16.0 8.7% 4.7% 2.1% 2.2%
SIDO Buy 845 980 16.0 25,350 1,011 1,136 25.1 22.3 7.5 7.2 18.7 17.1 10.9% 12.4% 3.5% 3.9%
MLBI Buy 8,575 13,250 54.5 18,068 1,063 1,299 17.0 13.9 13.8 11.7 10.9 9.2 656.9% 22.1% 0.8% 5.9%
Healthcare 63,959 2,529 1,938 25.3 33.0 4.3 4.0 11.3 13.7 76.8% -23.4% 1.3% 1.3%
MIKA Buy 2,280 3,200 40.4 32,482 1,165 1,036 27.9 31.4 5.8 5.3 18.4 20.5 38.4% -11.1% 1.6% 1.5%
SILO Buy 8,600 12,000 39.5 13,982 457 409 30.6 34.2 2.3 2.2 6.7 7.4 293.2% -10.4% 1.6% 1.3%
HEAL Buy 1,175 1,520 29.4 17,496 908 493 19.3 35.5 5.3 4.8 9.6 14.4 -61.6% -45.7% 0.4% 0.8%
Consumer discretionary 334,987 24,340 28,796 13.8 11.6 1.6 1.5 9.2 8.1 29.2% 18.3% 2.6% 3.1%
ACES Buy 1,410 1,750 24.1 24,182 779 1,027 31.0 23.5 4.4 4.1 20.8 16.2 6.3% 31.8% 2.3% 2.4%
LPPF Buy 3,050 2,000 (34.4) 8,010 224 839 35.8 9.5 9.9 4.9 9.1 4.2 N/M 274.6% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPA Buy 3,250 3,500 7.7 9,264 385 693 24.1 13.4 2.8 2.3 11.2 6.9 18405.2% 80.2% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPI Buy 880 1,157 31.4 14,608 605 1,023 24.1 14.3 2.5 2.1 7.0 5.0 N/M 69.1% 0.0% 0.8%
RALS Neutral 740 900 21.6 5,251 -41 148 -126.9 35.4 1.4 1.4 70.0 11.9 70.2% N/M 0.0% 0.0%
ERAA Buy 650 950 46.2 10,334 894 1,000 11.6 10.3 1.7 1.6 6.3 6.0 -70.8% 11.9% 3.1% 3.5%
ASII Buy 6,025 6,300 4.6 243,913 18,223 19,950 13.4 12.2 1.5 1.4 9.9 9.3 12.7% 9.5% 3.0% 3.4%
SCMA Neutral 420 2,200 423.8 5,313 1,137 1,397 4.7 3.8 1.2 1.0 3.4 2.7 -1.0% 22.9% 6.4% 9.2%
MNCN Buy 900 1,300 44.4 11,906 2,005 2,516 5.9 4.7 0.8 0.7 4.0 3.1 14.7% 25.5% 2.5% 4.2%
PZZA Buy 730 750 2.7 2,206 130 202 17.0 10.9 1.6 1.5 6.5 5.1 N/M 55.5% 0.0% 2.9%
Commodities 390,883 38,030 35,552 10.3 11.0 1.6 1.5 4.6 4.7 N/M -6.5% 4.5% 3.7%
UNTR Buy 23,550 33,300 41.4 87,845 11,448 10,422 7.7 8.4 1.3 1.2 3.1 2.8 90.7% -9.0% 3.9% 3.6%
ADRO* Buy 1,680 2,500 48.8 53,736 538 535 7.0 7.1 0.9 0.9 2.8 2.7 266.4% -0.6% 5.8% 5.1%
INDY* Buy 1,780 3,000 68.5 9,274 116 124 5.6 5.3 0.8 0.7 1.7 2.2 N/M 7.0% 4.4% 4.8%

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 13 of 15

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 Equity Research | 01 November 2021

Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
ITMG* Buy 21,600 35,000 62.0 23,686 410 302 4.1 5.5 1.8 1.7 2.3 3.0 938.2% -26.4% 20.8% 15.3%
PTBA Buy 2,680 3,700 38.1 30,880 6,261 4,966 4.9 6.2 1.4 1.4 4.0 5.6 162.3% -20.7% 15.2% 12.1%
ANTM Buy 2,340 3,300 41.0 56,232 2,264 2,270 24.8 24.8 2.4 2.2 13.6 12.9 97.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4%
INCO* Neutral 4,850 5,200 7.2 48,191 127 164 26.8 20.8 1.6 1.5 8.8 7.3 53.4% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Sell 1,590 1,200 (24.5) 11,842 312 312 37.9 37.9 2.2 2.1 13.0 12.5 N/M -0.1% 0.9% 0.9%
MDKA* Buy 3,160 3,300 4.4 69,196 60 115 81.2 42.3 8.2 6.9 24.1 16.6 66.1% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 115,532 7,316 7,923 15.8 14.6 0.9 0.9 9.5 9.2 96.8% 8.3% 1.7% 1.7%
ASRI Buy 182 250 37.4 3,576 485 524 7.4 6.8 0.4 0.4 7.5 6.9 N/M 8.0% 1.1% 1.1%
BSDE Buy 1,110 1,630 46.8 23,500 956 1,638 24.6 14.3 0.8 0.7 12.5 8.7 27.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%
CTRA Buy 1,075 1,360 26.5 19,952 1,096 1,111 18.2 18.0 1.2 1.2 10.3 10.4 -17.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9%
SMRA Buy 915 1,100 20.2 15,105 353 559 42.8 27.0 1.8 1.7 12.8 11.2 72.0% 58.4% 0.5% 0.5%
JRPT Buy 496 750 51.2 6,820 917 891 7.4 7.7 0.8 0.8 6.4 6.3 -0.9% -2.8% 4.1% 4.0%
PWON Buy 500 630 26.0 24,080 1,486 1,661 16.2 14.5 1.5 1.4 10.8 10.0 46.4% 11.8% 1.2% 1.2%
LPKR Neutral 148 210 41.9 10,448 913 215 11.4 48.6 0.4 0.4 6.3 9.3 N/M -76.5% 0.7% 0.7%
DMAS Buy 224 300 33.9 10,796 988 1,158 10.9 9.3 1.9 1.8 10.5 8.7 11.7% 17.2% 9.4% 9.4%
BEST Neutral 130 130 0.0 1,254 122 167 10.3 7.5 0.3 0.3 8.9 8.0 14.2% 37.4% 0.7% 1.2%
Telecom 579,094 35,914 34,285 16.2 16.9 3.3 3.1 6.4 6.1 42.4% -4.6% 3.4% 3.4%
EXCL Buy 3,080 3,600 16.9 32,801 1,293 1,429 25.4 23.0 1.6 1.5 4.8 4.6 247.9% 10.5% 0.6% 0.8%
TLKM Buy 3,800 4,400 15.8 376,436 23,109 25,586 16.3 14.7 3.5 3.2 5.9 5.6 11.1% 10.7% 4.5% 4.4%
ISAT Buy 6,925 8,000 15.5 37,630 5,948 1,368 6.3 27.5 2.1 2.0 4.5 4.3 N/M -77.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 3,890 5,500 41.4 10,704 996 1,096 11.5 10.5 2.0 1.7 5.1 4.7 5.7% 10.1% 2.8% 3.1%
TBIG Buy 2,940 3,600 22.4 63,595 1,246 1,310 51.0 48.6 6.8 6.3 17.8 16.8 23.4% 5.1% 0.9% 0.9%
TOWR Buy 1,160 1,750 50.9 57,928 3,323 3,496 17.4 16.6 4.9 4.3 10.8 10.2 17.2% 5.2% 3.0% 3.1%
Transportation 3,703 6 217 648.9 17.1 0.7 0.7 9.0 6.1 N/M N/M 0.0% 1.2%
BIRD Buy 1,480 1,530 3.4 3,703 6 217 648.9 17.1 0.7 0.7 9.0 6.1 N/M 3703.9% 0.0% 1.2%
Poultry 123,586 7,683 5,626 16.1 22.0 3.0 2.8 9.7 11.8 62.8% -26.8% 1.8% 2.6%
CPIN Buy 6,200 7,500 21.0 101,668 4,610 3,757 22.1 27.1 3.9 3.7 14.2 16.4 20.0% -18.5% 1.9% 2.3%
JPFA Buy 1,725 2,700 56.5 20,228 2,778 1,672 7.3 12.1 1.5 1.4 4.8 6.4 203.0% -39.8% 1.4% 4.1%
MAIN Buy 755 1,125 49.0 1,690 296 198 5.7 8.6 0.7 0.6 4.6 4.7 N/M -33.1% 0.0% 2.3%
Oil and Gas 53,460 5,263 4,798 10.2 11.1 1.2 1.1 6.1 5.4 N/M -8.8% 2.6% 3.2%
AKRA Buy 4,270 4,500 5.4 16,856 1,142 1,415 14.8 11.9 1.8 1.7 9.8 8.7 24.3% 23.9% 3.4% 4.2%
PGAS* Buy 1,510 2,000 32.5 36,605 291 239 8.9 10.8 1.0 1.0 5.5 4.9 N/M -17.9% 2.3% 2.8%
Internet 71,628 -1,406 -979 -51.0 -73.2 3.3 3.4 -33.3 -44.4 0.4% -30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
BUKA Buy 695 1,400 101.4 71,628 -1,406 -979 -51.0 -73.2 3.3 3.4 -33.3 -44.4 100.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable

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RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Banking, Telecom kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572
Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9623
Silvony Gathrie Banking silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544
Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA Healthcare, Consumer, Retail inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9450
Henry Tedja, CFA Media, Oil & Gas henry.tedja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9434
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Eimi Setiawan Research Assistant eimi.setiawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9549
Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9406
Imanuel Reinaldo Economist imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9651

INSTITUTIONAL SALES
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Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales angga.assaf@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
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Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375

RETAIL SALES
Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9693
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Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id 6261 8050 1825
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Maulidia Osviana Lampung maulidia.osviana@mandirisek.co.id 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
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Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id 62361 475 3066
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INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).

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