VNDIRECT RESEARCH

KINHBAC CITY DEVELOPEMENT SHARE HOLDING CORP (KBC) ─ UPDATE

Market Price Target Price Dividend Yield Rating Sector
VND60,500 VND81,800 0.0% Add PROPERTY

6 January 2022
Earnings growth to accelerate in FY22-23F
Outlook – Short term: Positive  More than 2,000ha industrial land likely to be added in FY22-24F should
Outlook – Long term: Positive provide strong support for KBC’s long-term earnings growth.
Valuation: Positive  Raise FY22-23F NP by 325.1%/136.9% to reflect the contribution of one-
off sale gain at Trang Cat urban area project and new IPs.
Consensus*: Add:7 Hold:3 Reduce:1  Upgrade to Add from Hold with a higher target price (TP) of VND81,800.
Target price / Consensus: 49.1%
New bulk sales schedule the best strategy for Trang Cat project
KBC plans to transfer 50ha of net saleable area per year at Trang Cat urban
Key changes in the report
area project, instead of combining retail and bulk sales as planned before. We
 Raise FY22-23F NP by 325.1%/136.9%.
appreciate its new sales schedule as this project is almost eligible for bulk sales
 Revise TP up by 45.8% vs. previous TP. handover after completing ground filling, according to KBC’s management. KBC
plans for its ground filling in early-FY22F, which has received approval in 4Q21.
Price performance KBC expects to record its first sales for VND10,000-12,000bn in FY22F.

Price Close Relative To VNIndex (RHS)

We expect more than 2,000ha industrial land to be added in FY22-24F
67,000 205
62,000 192 At end-FY21, KBC has received investment approval at three industrial clusters
(225ha) in Hung Yen province. KBC’s three new industrial parks (IP) in Hai
57,000 178
52,000 165
47,000
42,000
152
138
Duong (1,291ha) also have been added to the province’s master planning, after
37,000 125 more than 3 years awaiting. We expect these projects will boost KBC’s FY23-
32,000 112
27,000 98 24F earnings growth. In addition, KBC plans to sign a MOU contract for leasing
22,000
40
30
85
out 115ha at Trang Due 3 IP (of which, 80ha for LG Display Vietnam) valued at
20 c.US$150m, with average leasing price of US$130-140/sqm/lease term in early-
Vol m

10

01-21 03-21 05-21 07-21 09-21 11-21

2022. The company has started to invest compensation for first 100-200ha at
Source: VND RESEARCH
this project in 4Q21 and expects to complete legal procedure in FY22F.
Key statistics
Expect FY22-23F NP to be pumped up by one-off sale gain and new IPs
52w high (VND) 62,100
Given six new industrial projects added in Dec-2021 which could put into
52w low (VND) 26,200
operation in FY22-24F and new bulk sales schedule at Trang Cat project, we
3m Avg daily value (VNDmn) 536,320 raise our FY22-23F NP forecast as a base case by 325.1%/136.9% to
Market cap (VND bn) 34,983 VND7,323bn (+591.5% yoy)/VND8,558bn (+16.9% yoy). We estimate gross
Free float (%) 40 profit margin (GPM) to expand 8.1% pts yoy to 63.8% in FY22F and maintain
high at 65.4% in FY23F thanks to high-margin Trang Cat project.
TTM P/E (x) 38.9
Current P/B (x) 2.7 Upgrade to Add from Hold with a higher TP of VND81,800
We upgrade to Add from Hold with a higher TP of VND81,800 as we update 1)
Ownership DCF-based valuation for six new industrial project in Hung Yen and Hai Duong,
and 2) Trang Cat urban area project’s new bulk sales schedule. Potential re-
Dang Thanh Tam 14.8% rating risks are dependent on whether KBC can continue to clear legal hurdles
Kinh Bac Consulting and 8.0% to expand its land bank in Hung Yen, Long An, Hai Duong and Bac Giang. Key
Investment downside risks 1) worse-than-expected land sales, 2) regulatory delays in new
Others 77.2%
Source: VND RESEARCH projects, and 3) delays in booking revenue from residential projects.
Financial summary (VND) 12-20A 12-21E 12-22E 12-23E
Net revenue (bn) 2,151 4,653 17,507 19,766
Analyst(s): Revenue growth (33.0%) 116.3% 276.3% 12.9%
Gross margin 32.0% 55.7% 63.8% 65.4%
EBITDA margin 26.0% 45.3% 56.6% 61.5%
Net profit (bn) 224 1,059 7,323 8,558
Net profit growth (75.6%) 373.1% 591.5% 16.9%
Recurring profit growth (75.6%) 373.1% 591.5% 16.9%
Basic EPS 477 1,859 12,854 15,021
Adjusted EPS 477 1,859 12,854 15,021
BVPS 20,650 24,764 37,617 52,638
Tu Nguyen ROAE 2.3% 8.9% 41.2% 33.3%
tu.nguyencam2@vndirect.com.vn
Source: VND RESEARCH
1
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 VNDIRECT RESEARCH

EARNINGS GROWTH TO ACCELERATE IN FY22-23F

Upgrade our rating to Add from Hold with a higher TP of VND81,800

We adjust our TP up 45.8% as we:
1) Update DCF-based valuation for three new IPs in Hai Duong province
(1,291ha in total) namely Binh Giang (453.3ha), Thanh Ha (400ha) and Kim
Thanh (437.2ha) to factor in its important approval in end-2021, after more than
three years awaiting. We expect KBC to receive investment approval in 1H22
and start to monetize these IPs since early-2024F;
2) Update DCF-based valuation for three new industrial clusters in Hung Yen
(225ha in total) namely Dang Le, Kim Dong and Chinh Nghia to reflect its key
approval in end-2021. The management shared that some potential customers
currently are dealing for lease 300ha at KBC’s industrial clusters and IPs in Hung
Yen province. In addition, KBC and ACI Capital Co., Ltd also exchanged a
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on investment cooperation in the
upcoming KBC’s industrial clusters and industrial parks in Hung Yen province,
with a total estimated investment value of US$1bn. Therefore, we believe these
projects will be filled up quickly in FY23-24F.
3) Update Trang Cat urban area project’s new bulk sales schedule and remove
a 20% discount to this project's DCF in view of positive development (received
approval for ground filling in 4Q21, we appreciate its new sales schedule as this
project is almost eligible for bulk sales handover after completing ground filling);
4) Increase leasing price assumption at Trang Due 3 IP by 20% to
US$135/sqm/lease term following its upcoming MOU.
Potential re-rating risks are dependent on whether KBC can clear legal hurdles
to expand its further land bank in Hung Yen, Long An, Hai Duong and Bac Giang.
KBC’s management shared that the company is proceeding to expand its land
bank of 1,000ha in Hung Yen, 2,000ha in Long An and 2,000ha in Hai Duong.
In addition, we note that KBC is likely to consolidate Le Minh Xuan 2 and Saigon
Nhon Hoi IPs in 4Q21. We have not reflected these factors in our valuation and
forecast yet due to lack of detailed information. Key downside risks 1) worse-
than-expected land sales, 2) regulatory delays in new projects, and 3) delays in
booking revenue from residential projects.
Figure 1: Equity valuation
Project Name Fair value Method Note
Trang Due 3 IP 5,028 DCF Increase leasing price assumption by 20% its upcoming MOU.
Kim Thanh IP 2,927 DCF
Update DCF-based valuation to factor in its important approval in end-2021. We expect KBC to receive
Thanh Ha IP 2,676 DCF
investment approval in 1H22 and start to monetize these IPs since early-2024F.
Binh Giang IP 2,587 DCF
Nam Son Hap Linh IP 2,317 DCF
Tan Phu Trung IP 1,978 DCF
Update DCF-based valuation to reflect its key approval in end-2021. We expect this IP start to
Hung Yen industrial clusters 1,174 DCF monetize since 2022F.
Quang Chau IP 588 DCF
Nam Tan Tap IP 539 DCF
Update its new bulk sales schedule and remove a 20% discount to this project's DCF in view of
positive development (receive approval for ground filling in 4Q21, we appreciate its new sales schedule
Trang Cat urban area 22,935 DCF as this project is almost eligible for bulk sales handover after completing ground filling).
Phuc Ninh urban area 4,103 DCF
Trang Due urban area 753 DCF
Other 16 BV
Total 47,621

Add:
Cash and cash equivalent 3,795 BV
Investment in associates 777 BV
Short term financial investment 1,956 BV
Construction in progress 967 BV
Other assets 6,277 BV
Less:
Gross debt 7,376 BV
Minority interest 2,289 BV
RNAV 51,729
Discount to RNAV 10%
Shares outstanding 569,760,000
Target price (VND/share) 81,800
Sources: VND RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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 VNDIRECT RESEARCH

Figure 2: Peer comparison

Dividend
Share P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) yield (%)
price TP Market
(local (local Cap
Company Name Ticker cur) cur) (US$mn) TTM 2021F 2022F Current 2021F 2022F TTM 2021F 2022F TTM 2021F 2022F 2021F
Kinh Bac City Development KBC VN 60,500 81,800 1,515 38.9 28.8 20.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 6.0 10.0 11.4 2.8 4.3 5.2 0
Vietnam Rubber Group GVR VN 38,400 NA 6,750 30.9 33.8 30.7 3.1 N/A N/A 10.6 9.4 9.9 6.3 5.6 5.8 1.5
Investment & Industrial Development BCM VN 66,000 NA 3,002 38.2 N/A N/A 4.5 N/A N/A 11.8 N/A N/A 3.8 N/A N/A N/A
Idico Corp Jsc IDC VN 73,000 NA 962 40.2 N/A N/A 5.4 4.3 N/A 13.0 16.0 N/A 3.6 5.1 N/A N/A
Viglacera Corp Jsc VGC VN 56,000 NA 1,103 26.4 21.0 18.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 14.7 13.1 15.3 4.8 N/A N/A 2.0
Saigon VRG Investment Corporation SIP VN 147,000 NA 600 13.1 N/A N/A 5.8 N/A N/A 51.7 N/A N/A 6.8 N/A N/A N/A
Sonadezi Corp SNZ VN 50,200 NA 831 26.0 N/A N/A 3.5 N/A N/A 14.3 N/A N/A 3.8 N/A N/A N/A
Phuoc Hoa Rubber PHR VN 73,000 75,600 435 13.9 25.6 9.8 3.0 3.2 2.8 21.8 12.7 31.5 11.3 6.3 15.7 4.8
Sonadezi Chau Duc SZC VN 72,400 58,800 318 28.2 26.0 17.6 3.9 5.2 4.3 20.5 20.6 29.6 5.3 5.4 7.0 2.0
Nam Tan Uyen NTC VN 215,500 NA 227 17.8 14.4 8.0 7.6 5.3 N/A 33.3 37.1 N/A 5.9 6.3 N/A 3.8
Long Hau Corp LHG VN 53,500 NA 118 8.0 8.3 9.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 25.2 19.7 14.0 12.7 9.8 8.0 3.5
Viet Nam Rubber VRG VN 30,700 NA 35 75.6 N/A N/A 2.9 N/A N/A 3.7 N/A N/A 1.7 N/A N/A N/A
Average 28.9 21.5 15.5 4.1 3.9 3.1 20.1 18.4 20.1 6.0 6.4 9.1 2.9
Note: all prices are based on the closing prices on Jan 05 2022. All estimates for Non-rated (NR) stock s are based on Bloomberg consensus estimates.
Sources: VND RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 3: KBC’s key projects update as of end-2021: 1,225ha industrial land has been added in master planning in Dec-2021

Land Leasable Occpancy Year of

area area/NSA rate at end- open for KBC's
Projects Location (ha) (ha) 3Q21 (%) sales ownership Update
Industrial parks
In operation
Tan Phu Trung IP HCMC 542 314 63.8% 2010 72%
Quang Chau IP Bac Ninh 516 395 88.9% 2006 89%
KBC has signed memorandum of understanding for 118ha which is
Nam Son Hap Linh IP Bac Ninh 300 204 9.1% 2021 100%
expected to handover in 4Q21-FY22F.
Upcoming IPs
Received a final approval in early Oct-21. We expect this IP can
monetize since early-2022.
Nam Tan Tap IP Long An 245 171 0.0% 2022F 38%
- KBC plans to sign a MOU contract for leasing out 35ha in early-
2022.
Dang Le industrial cluster Hung Yen 75 53 0.0% 2022F 69% - Received investment approval in end-2021.
- Some potential customers are dealing for lease 300ha at KBC’s
Kim Dong industrial cluster Hung Yen 75 53 0.0% 2022F 69% industrial clusters and IPs in Hung Yen province.
- We note that the company is proceeding to expand its land bank of
Chinh Nghia industrial cluster Hung Yen 75 53 0.0% 2022F 69% 1,000ha in Hung Yen in the upcoming years.

- Received a key approval in legal procedures in early 2021. Awaiting

Hai Phong's general planning approval to complete legal procedures
at this project.
- KBC plans to sign MOU contracts for leasing out 115ha at Trang
Trang Due 3 IP Hai Phong 687 456 0.0% Early-2023F 87%
Due 3 IP (of which, 80ha for LG Display Vietnam) valued at
c.US$150m, with average leasing price of US$130-140/sqm/lease
term in early-2022.
- KBC has started to invest compensation for first 100-200ha in 4Q21.

Kim Thanh IP Hai Duong 437 306 0.0% Early-2024F 100% - Deputy Prime Minister has agreed to add Binh Giang 2 (303.27ha),
Thanh Ha 2 (250ha) and Kim Thanh 2 (437.24ha) in Hai Duong
province in end-2021, after more than 3 years awaiting. Before that,
Thanh Ha IP Hai Duong 400 280 0.0% Early-2024F 100% 300ha at Binh Giang 1 IP (150ha) and Thanh Ha 1 IP (150ha) had
been added to the province’s master planning in early-2021.
- We expect KBC to receive investment approval in 1H22 and start to
Binh Giang IP Hai Duong 453 317 0.0% Early-2024F 100% monetize these IPs since FY24F.

Urban area projects

- Received approval for ground filling in 4Q21. KBC plans to invest an
estimated VND3,000-4,000bn for infrastructure and ground filling at
this project in 2022F.
- KBC plans to transfer 50ha of net saleable area per year instead of
Trang Cat project Hai Phong 581 250 0.0% 2022F 100%
combining retail and bulk sales as planned before.
- We appreciate its new bulk sales schedule as this project is almost
eligible for bulk sales handover after completing ground filling. KBC
expects to record its first sales for VND10,000-12,000bn in FY22F.
Continue to contribute VND548bn in FY22F revenue, in our
Trang Due project Hai Phong 42 22.6 46.1% 2019 100%
estimates.
Expect to handover 6ha in FY22F, contributing VND1,300-1,400bn.
Phuc Ninh project Bac Ninh 115 45 5.8% 2019 100%
KBC plans to launch the next phase of 10ha in FY22F.
SOURCES: KBC, VND RESEARCH

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 VNDIRECT RESEARCH

FY21-23F earnings revision

Given the complicated legal procedures at IP projects as well as risks in
prolonging the project implementation, we consider three scenarios for our
FY22-23F performance estimates, as follow:
Figure 4: FY22-23F performance scenario
Revenue Net profit

Scenario Assumption FY22F FY23F FY22F FY23F Target price Upside

- The bulk sales deal of 50ha net saleable area per year at Trang Cat
project gets completed as planned.
VND19,635bn VND24,872bn VND8,216bn VND10,952bn
Best case - KBC could put both industrial clusters in Hung Yen and Trang Due 3 IP VND86,300 +46.3%
(+322.0% yoy) (+26.7% yoy) (+675.8% yoy) (+33.3% yoy)
into operation since FY22F as planned.
- Three new IPs get approval for operation since FY23F as planned.
- The bulk sales deal of 50ha net saleable area per year at Trang Cat
project gets completed as planned.
- We expect KBC could put industrial clusters in Hung Yen into operation VND17,507bn VND19,766bn VND7,323bn VND8,558bn
Base case VND81,800 +35.2%
in FY22F. (+276.3% yoy) (+12.9% yoy) (+591.5% yoy) (+16.9% yoy)
- We expect Trang Due 3 IP and three new IPs in Hai Duong could get
approval for operation since FY23-24F, respectively.
- Without the contribution of Trang Cat urban area project.
- We expect KBC could put industrial clusters in Hung Yen into operation
VND7,313bn VND10,038bn VND1,824bn VND3,061bn
Worst case in FY22F. VND71,400 +18.0%
(+57.3% yoy) (+37.3% yoy) (+72.3% yoy) (+67.8% yoy)
- We expect Trang Due 3 IP and three new IPs in Hai Duong could get
approval for operation since FY23-24F, respectively.
Sources: VND RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS

Given six new industrial projects added in Dec-2021 which could put into
operation in FY22-24F and new bulk sales schedule at Trang Cat project, we
made the following revisions to our forecasts for FY21-23F:
Figure 5: Forecast revisions under our base case
New Old Change
FY21F FY22F FY23F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY21F FY22F FY23F
Net sales 4,653 17,507 19,766 4,909 6,671 10,668 -5.2% 162.4% 85.3%
Gross profit 2,592 11,167 12,937 2,781 3,593 6,737 -6.8% 210.8% 92.0%
Gross margin (%) 55.7% 63.8% 65.4% 56.7% 53.9% 63.2% -1% pts 9.9% pts 2.3% pts
SG&A expenses (520) (653) (817) (530) (592) (1,122) -1.9% 10.3% -27.1%
Financial income 150 150 150 150 150 150 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Financial expense (574) (711) (489) (574) (711) (793) 0.0% 0.0% -38.4%
Net other income (13) (16) (14) (13) (16) (14) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Operating profit 1,648 9,953 11,780 1,828 2,439 4,972 -9.8% 308.0% 136.9%
EBT 1,635 9,936 11,767 1,814 2,423 4,958 -9.9% 310.1% 137.3%
CIT (392) (2,385) (2,824) (435) (582) (1,190) -9.9% 310.1% 137.3%
Net profit 1,059 7,323 8,558 1,196 1,723 3,612 -11.4% 325.1% 136.9%
Source: VND RESEARCH

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 VNDIRECT RESEARCH

Valuation

Rolling P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) Rolling P/B (x) (lhs) ROAE (rhs)

2.8 45%

61.4 550%
2.3 36%
51.4 433%

41.4 316% 1.8 27%

31.4 200%
1.3 18%
21.4 83%
0.8 9%
11.4 -33%

1.4 -150% 0.3 0%

01-19A 07-19A 01-20A 07-20A 01-21E 07-21E 01-22E 07-22E 01-19A 07-19A 01-20A 07-20A 01-21E 07-21E 01-22E 07-22E

Income statement Cash flow statement

(VNDbn) 12-21E 12-22E 12-23E (VNDbn) 12-21E 12-22E 12-23E
Net revenue 4,653 17,507 19,766 Pretax profit 1,635 9,936 11,767
Cost of sales (2,061) (6,339) (6,829) Depreciation & amortisation 61 57 59
Gen & admin expenses (319) (328) (390) Tax paid (415) (2,355) (2,836)
Selling expenses (201) (325) (427) Other adjustments (149) (150) (150)
Operating profit 2,072 10,514 12,119 Change in working capital (2,193) (327) (2,201)
Operating EBITDA 2,011 10,457 12,060 Cash flow from operations (1,061) 7,161 6,638
Depreciation and amortisation 61 57 59 Capex 91 (73) (77)
Operating EBIT 2,072 10,514 12,119 Proceeds from assets sales 0 0 0
Interest income 150 150 150 Others (2,361) 190 177
Financial expense (574) (711) (489) Other non-current assets changes 0 0 0
Net other income (13) (16) (14) Cash flow from investing activities (2,269) 117 99
Income from associates & JVs 0 0 0 New share issuance 4,585 0 0
Pre-tax profit 1,635 9,936 11,767 Shares buyback 0 0 0
Tax expense (392) (2,385) (2,824) Net borrowings 1,944 0 0
Minority interest (183) (228) (384) Other financing cash flow 0 (2,551) (2,501)
Net profit 1,059 7,323 8,558 Dividends paid 0 0 0
Adj. net profit to ordinary 1,059 7,323 8,558 Cash flow from financing activities 6,529 (2,551) (2,501)
Ordinary dividends 0 0 0 Cash and equivalents at beginning of period 1,050 4,249 8,976
Retained earnings 1,059 7,323 8,558 Total cash generated 3,199 4,727 4,236
Cash and equivalents at the end of period 4,249 8,976 13,212
Balance sheet
(VNDbn) 12-21E 12-22E 12-23E Key ratios
12-21E 12-22E 12-23E
Cash and equivalents 4,249 8,976 13,212
Dupont
Short term investments 1,939 1,939 1,939 Net profit margin 22.8% 41.8% 43.3%
Accounts receivables 9,866 10,664 14,192 Asset turnover 0.17 0.50 0.47
Inventories 12,318 13,714 13,395 ROAA 3.8% 20.9% 20.2%
Other current assets 254 267 280 Avg assets/avg equity 2.33 1.98 1.64
ROAE 8.9% 41.2% 33.3%
Total current assets 28,626 35,559 43,018
Efficiency
Fixed assets 1,129 1,161 1,195
Days account receivable 116.0 32.2 30.3
Total investments 821 781 754 Days inventory 2,181.8 789.6 715.9
Other long-term assets 1,069 1,053 1,037 Days creditor 38.8 38.8 38.8
Total assets 31,645 38,555 46,005 Fixed asset turnover 4.13 15.29 16.77
Short-term debt 1,652 1,152 652 ROIC 4.4% 25.1% 24.1%
Liquidity
Accounts payable 219 674 726
Current ratio 4.0 4.1 4.7
Other current liabilities 5,368 6,792 7,761 Quick ratio 2.3 2.5 3.2
Total current liabilities 7,239 8,618 9,139 Cash ratio 0.9 1.3 1.7
Total long-term debt 6,057 4,006 2,005 Cash cycle 2,258.9 783.1 707.4
Other liabilities 1,929 1,959 1,946 Growth rate (yoy)
Share capital 5,698 5,698 5,698 Revenue growth 116.3% 276.3% 12.9%
Operating profit growth 466.0% 407.4% 15.3%
Retained earnings reserve 5,375 12,699 21,257
Net profit growth 373.1% 591.5% 16.9%
Shareholders' equity 14,109 21,433 29,991 EPS growth 290.1% 591.5% 16.9%
Minority interest 2,311 2,539 2,923
Total liabilities & equity 31,645 38,555 46,005

Source: VND RESEARCH

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 Small & Midcap Research

DISCLAIMER
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contained in this report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issuance of this report. Unless
otherwise stated, this report is based upon sources that VNDIRECT considers to be reliable. These sources may include but are
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Information on the company(ies) are based on published statements, information disclosure and announcements of the
company(ies), and information resulting from our research. VNDIRECT has no responsibility for the accuracy, adequacy or
completeness of such information.
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the analyst(s) responsible for the production of this report. These opinions may not represent the views and position of VNDIRECT
and may change without notice.
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
Stock Ratings Definition:
Add The stock’s total return is expected to reach 15% or higher over the next 12 months.
Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between negative 10% and positive 15% over the next 12
months.
Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below negative 10% over the next 12 months.
The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and
the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12
months.

Sector Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive
absolute recommendation.
Neutral A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute
recommendation.
Underweight An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative
absolute recommendation.

Hien Tran Khanh – Head of Research

Email: hien.trankhanh@vndirect.com.vn
Tu Nguyen – Analyst
Email: tu.nguyencam2@vndirect.com.vn
Toan Chu Duc – Senior Analyst
Email: toan.chuduc@vndirect.com.vn
–
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