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COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Joey Roi Bondoc


Associate Director | Research | Philippines
NOT QUITE THERE YET
+63 2 8858 9057 Opportunities for landlords and tenants as pace of recovery of Metro Manila office leasing remains uncertain
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com

2021-25
Insights & Q4 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Dom Fredrick Andaya Recommendations > Firms providing essential goods and services
Director | Office Services | Philippines are likely to drive office space absorption in
+63 917 831 6725
We continue to see an uncertain 2021. We see cost-sensitive firms occupying
Dom.Andaya@colliers.com
office leasing environment in vacated but fully-fitted spaces in key -70,700 354,500 732,300
Demand sq meters sq meters sq meters
Metro Manila over the next 12 business districts such as Fort Bonifacio.
months. Despite this, we see
some firms, especially those that
provide essential goods and > Colliers sees the delivery of about 886,200 sq
services, expanding and metres (9.5 million sq ft) of new office
absorbing office space. supply in 2021. We estimate that about 67%
Supply 189,200 886,200 658,300
of the new supply will likely be in the Bay
sq meters sq meters sq meters
Overall, the decrease in demand Area, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas CBD.
will likely result in a rental
correction in 2021 before our Annual Average
QOQ/ YOY/ Growth 2020–25
predicted recovery which should End Q4 End 2021 End 2025
start in 2022.
> Subdued leasing across all segments
Amid a challenging market, we (traditional, POGO, and outsourcing)* is likely -6.2% -15.0% +0.8%
recommend landlords and to result in a correction of lease rates. We
tenants focus on opportunities in Rent project rents to bottom out in 2021 before a
recovery starting 2022. PHP851 PHP724 PHP886
the current market environment.
Landlords should be proactive in
offering alternative leasing > Colliers projects vacancy in 2021 to rise as
+2.0pp +3.4pp -0.6pp
models to tenants; be flexible to POGOs continue to vacate office space and
tenants’ request for concessions; outsourcing firms rationalize office
and adjust construction pipelines requirements. We expect vacancy to reach Demand
Vacancy 9.1% 12.5% 6.2%
12.5% in 2021, the highest since 2003.
to prevent further erosion of
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 1 square m = 10.76 square ft. *Also known as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators
rents across the capital region. (POGOs), primarily offshore gaming firms from China. Traditional (includes companies in various sectors such as legal, engineering and construction, government agencies
and flexible workspace operators), POGO, and outsourcing firms.
COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

RECOMMENDATIONS Extension, NLEX-SLEX Connector Road, Skyway SLEX Extension, Estrella-


Pantaleon Bridge, and the BGC-Ortigas Link Bridge. Among the locations
Alternative leasing schemes and expansion sites that are likely to benefit from the completion of these projects are Fort
Colliers has observed that while most leasing is momentarily paused, some Bonifacio, Alabang, Ortigas CBD, and Quezon City. Developments in these
occupiers are still actively looking for office space, especially those from the areas should allow landlords to highlight the advantages of their proximity
essential industries and companies that plan to implement to public infrastructure and lure the workforce back to traditional offices.
alternative schemes such as a hub and spoke model. Colliers Tap essential segments' office requirements
encourages landlords to expand tenants' options by offering available office
space in non-core locations where rates are 30% to 50% cheaper than major In 2020, Colliers recorded 27,000 sq metres (290,500 sq feet) of office
business districts. This is important especially for companies planning to space deals from traditional occupiers providing essential services such as
implement a hub and spoke leasing scheme wherein occupiers reduce the healthcare, e-commerce, financial technology (fintech),
reliance on a single headquarters for a more dispersed occupancy strategy. telecommunications and logistics & warehousing. We project demand from
these sub-segments to be sustained over the next 12 to 24 months as these
Be more flexible to tenants' request for concessions are likely to be driven by a lockdown and household consumption-led
In our view, tenants continue to take a wait and see stance and look for economy. Hence, developers should proactively target these companies’
opportunities to reduce costs while aligning their leasing strategies with their office space requirements moving forward.
business plans. We see tenants exploring short term (e.g. six month) lease
renewals during this period of uncertainty, complementing traditional offices Metro Manila office forecast (square metres)
with remote work models. Meanwhile, the companies that are still expanding
Supply Net Take Up Vacancy Rate (RHS)
are likely to renew leases and take advantage of opportunities to negotiate a
1,200,000 15.0%
more reasonable commercial structure that is attuned to market conditions
700,000 10.0%
such as a lower base rent, delayed escalation, fit-out financing and rent-free
200,000 5.0%
incentives. In our view, landlords should be more proactive in
accommodating tenants’ requests for concessions to prioritize healthy levels -300,000 0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
of occupancy during this period.
Landlords to be mindful of new supply Source: Colliers International

From the bitter experience during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), developers
quickly understood the need to turn off the supply tap. This was evident in PARED DOWN SUPPLY
2010 after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when office completion dropped
In Q4 2020, Colliers recorded the completion of about 189,200 sq metres
to 203,000 sq metres (2.2 million sq feet) from 523,000 sq metres (5.6
(2.0 million sq feet) of new office supply. The Bay Area contributed 33% to
million sq feet) in 2009 as projects were deferred or outright cancelled.
new supply during the period with the completion of Uzume Building,
Colliers encourages landlords to be mindful of their office supply pipeline,
Aspire Corporate Plaza and Platinum Tower. Colliers also saw the
balancing new development with their building’s pre-leasing status and the
completion of BGC Corporate Center 2, One Le Grand Tower in Fort
overall pace of leasing recovery.
Bonifacio, Kingston Excell Building in Alabang, Cyber Omega in Ortigas CBD,
Maximize proximity to infrastructure projects and Baja Corporate Center in Makati Fringe. In 2020, new supply only
Colliers encourages developers to maximize the proximity of their buildings reached 425,500 sq metres (4.6 million sq feet), down 60% from our initial
to upcoming key infrastructure projects due to be completed in Metro estimate of 1.07 million sq metres (11.5 million sq feet) at the start of 2020
Manila.
. From 2021 to 2022, Colliers sees the completion of the LRT-2 East as the pandemic hampered the completion of new buildings.
2
COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

In 2021, we project the completion of about 886,200 sq metres (9.5 million sq The substantial office space coming online across Metro Manila of about
feet) of new supply, down 16% from our initial forecast of about 1.05 million sq 886,200 sq metres (9.5 million sq feet) and our projected net take-up of
metres (11.3 million sq feet) at the start of 2020. Colliers believes that some 354,500 sq metres (3.8 million sq feet) should result in a vacancy of 12.5% in
landlords are inclined to complete buildings that are already on the final stages 2021, up from 9.1% in 2020. Our projected vacancy in 2021 is likely to be the
of construction or have achieved a decent level of pre-commitment as of the highest since the 13.8% recorded in 2003.
end of 2020.
From 2021 to 2025, we see the delivery of about 658,300 sq metres (7.1
million sq feet) of new office space annually, down 13% from our initial
RENTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2021
estimate of 757,500 sq metres (8.2 million sq feet) at the start of 2020. Office rents on average dropped by 17% in 2020. We expect a
further correction in lease rates especially in submarkets with high vacancy
VACANCY TO RISE IN 2021 due to lease terminations (e.g. Quezon City, Makati Fringe and Alabang)
where a substantial amount of office space was vacated by POGOs and high
Office space absorption continued to slide for the third consecutive quarter in levels of upcoming supply (e.g. Bay Area, Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas CBD).
Q4 2020 with net take-up turning negative. For 2020, we recorded a net take- Colliers has observed that landlords have become more flexible in
up of −183,100 sq metres (−1.9 million sq feet), down 120% from the 899,600 accommodating tenants' requests to lower lease rates. These adjustments
sq metres (9.7 million sq feet) absorbed in 2019. 2020 was also the first time may come in the form of longer rent-free periods, fit-out allowances,
that we recorded a negative take-up on an annual basis. delayed or waived escalation of rents, and other customized incentives to
Colliers saw traditional companies leading office space take-up in Q4 2020 secure substantial occupancy of their buildings despite the delivery of
especially firms under the e-commerce, healthcare, telecommunications, significant new supply in 2021. We project a recovery in rents starting in
fintech, and logistics industries. Most of these firms occupied spaces in Makati 2022. The pace of recovery will likely hinge on the progress of rollout of a
CBD, Ortigas CBD, and Fort Bonifacio. COVID-19 vaccine.
Metro Manila office transactions:
Meanwhile, no POGO transactions were recorded for the third consecutive
POGO KPO Voice Traditional†
quarter. In our opinion, the Supreme Court (SC) ruling imposing a temporary
restraining order (TRO)1 on the 5% franchise tax on gross gaming revenues 91% 71% 79% 62%
from POGOs will likely prompt these firms to reconsider leaving the Philippines,
but the bigger issue remains the lack of Chinese manpower due to travel 554K
restrictions. 513K

Vacated spaces continue to outpace absorbed spaces in Q4 2020. The bulk of


the office spaces vacated during the period were in Makati CBD, Alabang, and
Quezon City. Meanwhile, we recorded a total of 314,000 sq metres (3.4 million 265K
sq feet) of office space vacated by POGOs at the end of 2020 from only 154,000 181K 196K
sq metres (1.7 million sq feet) at the end Q3 2020.
48K 77K
Colliers believes that among the business districts that are likely to 38K
lead recovery in 2021 are Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas CBD. A mix
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
of traditional and outsourcing firms have pre-leased office space in Source: Colliers International
these business districts. We see this trend continuing over the next 12 months. † Traditional (includes companies in various sectors such as legal, engineering and construction, government

agencies and flexible workspace operators), POGO, and outsourcing firms


1Supreme Court stops higher POGO taxes
Primary Authors: For further information, please contact:
Joey Roi Bondoc Richard Raymundo
Associate Director | Research | Philippines Managing Director | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 +63 2 8858 9028
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com Richard.Raymundo@colliers.com

Dom Fredrick Andaya


Director | Office Services | Philippines
+63 917 831 6725
Dom.Andaya@colliers.com

Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com

Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com

About Colliers International


Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than
15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For
more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In
2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn
more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter or LinkedIn

Copyright © 2020 Colliers International


The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it.
No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
COLLIERS QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Joey Roi Bondoc


PRICE AND RENTAL RECOVERY DELAYED TO 2022
Associate Director | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 Projected rebound of office space absorption in 2022 likely to spill over to the residential market
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com

2021–23
Q4 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Insights &
> Take-up in both the secondary and pre-sales
Recommendations markets reached a record low due to slow
A precarious Metro Manila office demand, given the adverse impacts of the
leasing market continues to Demand pandemic. In 2021, we project demand to be -2,612 units 6,977 units 7,469 units
hamper the recovery of the driven by mid-income-to-luxury projects1.
capital region’s pre-sale and > Colliers saw the completion of 3,370 new units
secondary residential markets. in 2020, down 70% from 11,233 units in 2019.
We expect a slight rebound in supply in 2021 as
Prices and rents corrected in 2020
Supply selected projects due to be completed in Q4 1,080 units 10,604 units 9,127 units
due to dampened demand and 2020 were delayed to 2021.
we do not see a recovery in the Annual Average
next 12 months. QOQ / YOY / Growth 2020–23 /
End Q4 End 2021 End 2023
Pandemic-induced construction
> The average rents in the secondary residential
delays continue to limit the -4.5% 0.5% 1.5%
market declined by 7.8% YOY at the end of 2020.
development of new units, while In 2019, average rents across Metro Manila
developers held off launches due increased by 6.9%. We expect a slight rise in rents
to anemic take-up. Rent PHP710 PHP714 PHP741
starting in 2022.
To take advantage of > As of the end of 2020, vacancy in the secondary
+2.7pp +1.4pp 0.13pp
opportunities in the market and market reached 15.6%, a record high. Colliers
tap pent-up demand once market expects vacancy to further increase in 2021,
sentiment starts improving, especially in business districts with substantial 15.6% 16.9% 16.0%
Vacancy
Colliers recommends that stock such as the Bay Area and Fort Bonifacio.
developers explore creative > In 2019, prices increased by 26%, but fell by
-6.6% 0.4% 1.2%
leasing models, consider fringe 13.2% in 2020. Colliers expects a slow recovery of
areas for upcoming projects, and prices starting 2022. This should be supported by
Capital a slow rebound in Metro Manila office leasing
monitor attractive locations and Values PHP201,500 PHP202,200 PHP209,000
price segments for pre-selling starting 2022.
residential developments. Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. Demand represents net take-up in the secondary market (in units). Rent and capital
values are per sq metre. 1Mid-income to Luxury projects = PHP3.2 million and above (USD66,700 and above).
COLLIERS QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Caloocan-Malabon-Navotas-Valenzuela (CAMANAVA) corridor, Pasig, Quezon


RECOMMENDATIONS City North, and Manila South. These areas accounted for 47% of aggregate
take-up for affordable-to-mid-income projects in 2020.
Monitor attractive price segments and sites for preselling
In 2020, take-up in the pre-sales market reached 31,380 units, down 34%
YOY. Also, in 2020, mid-income-to-luxury projects contributed to 86% of
2020 COMPLETION DOWN 70%
total take-up, up from 72% in 2019. Colliers Philippines data show that Around 1,080 units were completed in Q4 2020, up 73% from the total of 625
more than 90% of new launches in 2020 were classified as mid-income-to- units completed in Q3 2020. With the completion of Studio City Tower 5,
luxury projects. Developers should monitor this price segment, as we more than 40% of the new units were located in Alabang. Other new
expect demand to be driven by these projects beyond 2020. Attractive completions during the quarter included Garden Towers Tower 2 in Makati
locations for this pre-selling price segment include Parañaque, CBD3, Six Senses Resort I-Touch tower in the Bay Area, and Dusit D2
Mandaluyong, Alabang-Las Piñas, and the Bay Area. In 2020, these locations Residences in Fort Bonifacio. The completion of more than 2,900 units in the
comprised 43% of total take-up for mid-income-to-luxury projects. Bay Area and Fort Bonifacio was pushed back to H1 2021 due to extended
interior unit work. This was likely caused by construction supply chain issues
Explore more creative leasing models and condominium and limited manpower.
management
Total completions in 2020 reached 3,370 units, down 70% from 11,233 units
As of the end of 2020, remaining inventory in Metro Manila stood at 42,511 in 2019. A slower pace of completion was also seen during previous economic
units, down slightly from 42,768 units in Q3 20202. More than 35% of the downturns. In 1998, 690 new units were completed, down 9.0% from 760
remaining inventory during the period was classified as Ready for units in 1997. Similarly, only 3,960 units were delivered in 2009, down 48%
Occupancy (RFO) projects. We recommend that developers with a from 7,610 units in 2008. In 2021, we expect a rebound in completion with
substantial number of RFO units continue to explore creative leasing the delivery of 10,600 units, higher than our initial estimate of 7,910 units.
models to help lease out their units and assist their clients in achieving their We expect around 74% of the total to be in the Bay Area followed by Fort
yield target. We also encourage developers to consider partnering with Bonifacio, Rockwell, Alabang, Ortigas Center, and Makati CBD. From 2021 to
residential asset management service providers to help ease the process of 2024, we expect the annual delivery of 8,600 units, an increase from 6,700
leasing, documentation, and payments. units we projected at the start of 2020.
Further diversification of projects Metro Manila residential stock forecast, end-2020 and 2023 (units)
The share of upscale-to-luxury developments (priced at PHP6 million or Location End of 2020 End of 2023 % change
USD125,000 and above) in new project launches has been on the rise. In 1 Bay Area 22,750 39,680 74.4% 7
8
2020, these segments accounted for 41% of new launches during the year, 2 Alabang 4,880 6,050 24.0% 5
up from an annual average of 25% between 2015 and 2019. While demand 3 Fort Bonifacio 39,100 43,350 10.9%
4 Rockwell Center 5,270 5,830 10.6% 6
for upscale-to-luxury projects remained steady, we recommend developers
5 Ortigas Center 18,730 21,550 15.1%
consider launching more affordable-to-mid-income developments (PHP1.7 4
6 Makati CBD 28,550 29,600 3.7% 1
million to PHP5.99 million or USD35,400 to USD124,800 per unit) to capture Araneta Center 4,550 5,150
3
7 13.2%
more market demand and continue attracting Overseas Filipino Workers 8 Eastwood City 9,630 9,630 0.0%
(OFWs) that partly drive the demand for affordable-to-mid-income pre-sale Total 133,460 160,840 20.5%
units. Developers should eye viable fringe areas that are ripe for Note: Google Maps estimated travel time to Makati: Bay Area-17 min, Alabang-
24 min, Fort Bonifacio-14 min, Rockwell Center-9 min, Ortigas Center-15 min,
construction and have shown strong pre-sales, including the Araneta Center-23 min, Eastwood City-29 min. (private vehicle). 2
2 Source: Colliers International. 2Remaining inventory excludes Caloocan-Malabon-Navotas-Valenzuela
(CAMANAVA). 3CBD = Central Business District
COLLIERS QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Historical secondary vacancy, 1995 to 2020 residential leasing plans on hold. Despite the subdued residential take-up in
2020, we expect a slight improvement by end-2021. We expect this to be
20.0% supported by the central bank’s 4.0% growth projection in cash remittances5 and
1998: 8.4% 2009: 6.3% 2020: 15.6%
10.0% low interest rates, which should sustain competitive mortgage rates. Bangko
AFC GFC COVID-19 Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno noted that the bank intends
0.0% to keep interest rates low in a bid to support the economy6. Data from the BSP’s

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2020
Q4 2020 Consumer Expectations Survey also showed that the percentage of
households that plan on buying properties in the next 12 months showed an
Source: Colliers International. Note: AFC = Asian Financial Crisis, GFC = Global Financial Crisis
increase to 3.6%, up from 3.3% in Q3 2020.

VACANCY AT A RECORD HIGH RENTAL AND PRICE RECOVERY


Vacancy in the secondary market peaked at a record high 15.6% in Q4
At the end of 2020, prices and rents in the secondary market declined by 13.2%
2020, compared to an annual average vacancy of 11% between 2016 and
and 7.8%, respectively. The decline was sharper than the drop during the GFC7
2019. As of the end of 2020, vacancy rates in major submarkets ranged
but less sharp than the decline during the AFC,8 when prices and rents declined
from 6.3% to 22.8%, higher than the 4.3% to 15% range of 2019. In 2021,
by 14.5% and 15.4%, respectively. In 2022, we expect prices and rents to increase
we expect vacancy to further rise to 16.9%, up from our previous forecast
by about 1.5% and 1.7% YOY, respectively. We expect the pace of growth to
of 13.5%. This is due to the amount of new completions, as we expect the
hinge on a rebound in local and foreign investor sentiment and a recovery in
delivery of 10,600 units, a big uptick from only 3,370 delivered in 2020.
office space absorption.
We expect vacancy rates to recede starting in H2 2022, given our
projected rebound in office leasing and take-up from investors and end- We believe that the significant number of pre-terminations in 2020 contributed
users. to the decline of rents across Metro Manila. Colliers Philippines estimates that
condominium leasing pre-termination during the year more than doubled YOY
The subdued demand in 2020 was likely due to the impact of the
due to repatriations, and employees that likely availed themselves of early
pandemic on remittances and consumer confidence. From Jan. to Nov.
retirement packages offered by their companies. We also observed owners
2020, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) declined
offloading properties at near pre-sale prices and through loan assumptions.
by 0.8% YOY to USD27.01 billion (PHP1.3 trillion). In contrast, remittances
Projects up for re-sale within the fringe locations such as Cubao, Quezon City,
from Jan. to Nov. 2019 rose by 4.4% YOY. Meanwhile, consumer
Mandaluyong, Parañaque, and Muntinlupa offered discounts ranging from 7.0%
confidence slightly improved but remained negative in Q4 2020 at -47.9, a
to 24%. This is higher than the 5.0% to 23% discounts recorded in the CBDs such
slight improvement from the record low of -54.5 recorded in Q3 20204.
as the Bay Area, Fort Bonifacio, and Makati CBD.
Vacancy in the secondary market was also adversely affected by weak
Historical secondary prices and GDP growth, 1998 to 2020F
office leasing in key business hubs. Average office vacancy as of Q4 2020
reached 9.1%, up from only 4.3% in 2019. Citywide vacancy increased, Avg Secondary Capital Value (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)
400,000 10.0%
including the Bay Area, which posted a 6.7% vacancy rate in Q4, compared AFC GFC COVID-19
to 3.8% in Q3 2020. The increase was likely due to limited demand from 200,000 0.0%
the offshore gaming sector which affected residential leasing in the
district. Colliers Philippines has observed limited residential enquiries in - -10.0%
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2020. Firms that were initially looking for condominiums to accommodate
foreign employees in the Fort Bonifacio and Makati areas put their Source: Colliers International. 4Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. 5BusinessWorld, OFW remittance growth slows in
Nov. 6ABS-CBN News, BSP to keep rates low, says inflation 'least' of worries. 7GFC = Global Financial Crisis. 8AFC =
3 Asian Financial Crisis
Primary Author: For further information, please contact:
Joey Roi Bondoc Richard Raymundo
Associate Director | Research | Philippines Managing Director | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 +63 2 8858 9028
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com Richard.Raymundo@colliers.com

Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com

Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com

About Colliers International


Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than
15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For
more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In
2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn
more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter or LinkedIn

Copyright © 2020 Colliers International


The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it.
No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL HOTEL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Joey Roi Bondoc


Associate Director | Research | Philippines
HOTELS PIVOT TO STAY AFLOAT
+63 2 8858 9057 Disappointing arrivals and tourist expenditures compel hotel operators to innovate as future of global air travel remains bleak
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com

2021–25
Insights & H2 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average

Recommendations > Data from the Department of Tourism (DOT)


show that total foreign arrivals dropped by
The Philippine leisure sector 84% in 2020 due to global travel restrictions.
continues to suffer from sluggish We do not see arrivals from the country's
Demand 1.3 million 2 million 6.8 million
top source markets, such as South Korea,
arrivals of foreign tourists and
picking up in the next 12 months.
subdued spending from local
tourists.
> No new hotel rooms were completed in H2
The hotel market is likely to suffer 2020 due to pandemic-induced construction
from delayed completion of new delays. Colliers only sees the delivery of
Supply about 1,020 rooms in 2021, lower than our 0 rooms 1,020 rooms 1,870 rooms
projects as developers factor in a
slow recovery. pre-pandemic projection of 2,160 rooms.

Colliers recommends that Annual Average


operators continue to target HOH/ YOY/ Growth 2020–25
returning OFWs* looking for End H2 End 2021 End 2025
quarantine facilities and > Colliers saw occupancy reaching only 20% in
-5pp +10pp +8pp
professionals searching for 2020 due to disappointing foreign arrivals
flexible workspaces. and subdued local demand. We expect
occupancy to remain about 30% in 2021 as
Operators should highlight Occupancy international and domestic travel are 20% 30% 70%
compliance with health and unlikely to recover in the next 12 months.
sanitation protocols and take
> ADRs** have dropped by 18% compared to
advantage of perks lined up by -2% -10% 9%
pre-pandemic rates. Colliers projects ADRs to
the government for the sector. drop by another 10% in 2021. We attribute
Colliers also encourages operators the drop to low occupancies, foreign arrivals
Room Rates and expenditures. We do not see a recovery USD65 USD59 USD94
to expedite the implementation of
innovative and technology-driven in rates in the next 12 months.
Source: Colliers International
services. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of H2 2020. Demand is tourist arrivals. *Overseas Filipino Workers; **Average Daily Rates.
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL HOTEL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Monitor government incentives and regulations


RECOMMENDATIONS Colliers encourages hotel operators to monitor the perks granted by the
Offer COVID-19 testing as part of amenity packages government to the leisure sector. For instance, the Board of Investments
(BOI) has approved tax incentives2 for tourism enterprises to upgrade and
In our view, hotel operators should consider offering convenient and modernize their facilities for health and safety purposes. These include an
affordable on-site COVID-19 testing as part of their amenity packages1. Hotels income tax holiday for three years and duty-free importation of capital
may consider partnering with an accredited laboratory or a hospital to equipment. Upgrades may also include the renovation of guest rooms,
conduct the Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) or function rooms and recreation areas.
rapid antigen COVID tests. By partnering with these facilities, hotel operators
can increase guest confidence while providing immediate support for any Conversion and repurposing of rooms into flexible workspaces and
guests testing positive from the virus. The government has also approved the pop-up restaurants
implementation of saliva testing, which is a cheaper and less invasive
Hotels such as Seda Residences Makati and Aruga Apartments by Rockwell
procedure for COVID-19 testing. We encourage hotel operators to consider
have converted some of their hotel rooms into private offices and flexible
adopting this alternative procedure.
workspaces, given the slow guest demand due to the pandemic. Among the
Highlight compliance with health and safety protocols amenities are Wi-Fi connectivity, office supplies, weekly cleaning services
and access to a common pantry area. Colliers believes that demand for these
Colliers believes that hotel operators should strictly follow the health facilities is likely to rise, given that more firms are willing to implement
and safety protocols implemented by the government. Hotels’ compliance alternative schemes such as remote working. Hotels may also consider
with the anti-pandemic efforts laid out by the Department of Tourism should partnering with well known or in-house restaurants to offer pop-up
also be highlighted to attract more guests and recapture demand once restaurants where guests can order through the hotel reception and have
market sentiment improves, driven mainly by the revival of global air travel. their food delivered to their rooms. While implementing these, hotel
Technology-driven innovative services operators should strictly observe physical distancing protocols implemented
by the local and national governments.
Despite the pandemic, hotel operators should continue using technology to
improve customer experience. Aside from the typical technology-enabled Occupancy rate, visitor arrivals and YOY change, 2007-2020
services such as contactless check ins, smart & keyless room controls and Visitor Arrivals (LHS) Average Occupancy (RHS)
24/7 mobile connectivity, operators should also consider introducing self- YOY Change in Visitor Arrivals (RHS)

cleaning robots and contactless payment channels to minimize physical 60%


5M
contact and raise sanitation standards. -20%
0M -100%
In our opinion, the pandemic and the physical distancing protocols 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
implemented have only highlighted the need for hotel operators to innovate Source: Department of Tourism
using technology-driven services. Sheraton and Hilton Manila have
introduced spaces for dining and recreational activities that are protected by
outdoor bubble pods. The newest facility offers a 360-degree view of the
FOREIGN ARRIVALS SLUMP IN 2020
hotel and pool, a six-course menu and massage services. Foreign arrivals into the country fell significantly due to global air travel
restrictions. Data from the Department of Tourism (DOT) show that foreign
arrivals in 2020 dropped by 84% YOY in 2020 to 1.32 million from 8.3 million
in 2019.
1Hotels offer accommodation with COVID test packages. 2Tax incentives for tourism firms approved: DOT.
2
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL HOTEL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021

Tourist receipts also declined by 83% YOY to PHP81.4 billion (USD1.7 billion) The tourism department has also been banking on leisure-based hotel stays
from the record-high of PHP482.16 billion (USD10 billion) in 2019. As and the domestic market to prop up hotel occupancy. However, this is not
international travel restrictions remain in place, the DOT is likely to continue likely to have a significant impact on ADRs and hotel occupancies in Metro
its domestic tourism push by reopening more tourism destinations such as Manila, as consumers are still likely to skimp on non-essential spending,
Boracay, Baguio, Ilocos region, and El Nido and Coron in Palawan, provided including restaurants and hotels. Data from the Philippine Statistics
that the local government units (LGUs) follow the prescribed health and Authority (PSA) showed that the restaurants and hotels sub-segment
safety protocols. With travel restrictions in key markets such as South Korea, contracted by 43.5% in 2020, a reversal from the 6.6% growth in 2019.
China, United States and Japan unlikely to be lifted soon, Colliers does not
see a rebound in foreign arrivals in the next 12 months.
TURTLE-PACED COMPLETION
SUBDUED OCCUPANCY IN 2021 Only 375 new hotel rooms were completed in 2020. This is about 78% down
from our initial projection of about 1,700 rooms in H1 2020. In 2021, Colliers
Colliers saw hotel occupancy in Metro Manila further decline to 20% in H2 sees the delivery of about 1,030 rooms, significantly down from our initial
2020 from 25% in H1 2020. We have observed that the arrival of several estimate of 2,160 rooms. In our view, the construction of most hotels is
thousand Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in H2 2020 was unable to lift likely to be put on hold or deferred due to a slow recovery of the leisure
hotel occupancies. Meanwhile, the tourism department has recently sector as projected by IATA, local stakeholders and industry groups.5
accredited 15 four and five-star hotels in Metro Manila that can operate as
From 2021 to 2024, we see the completion of about 1,900 rooms per
leisure-based hotels3. However, we do not see this development having a
annum. This is less than the 2,100 annual completion that we recorded from
significant impact on occupancies in Metro Manila, as Filipinos continue to
2016 to 2019. Among the new hotels that are scheduled for completion
limit expenditure on essential goods and services.
from 2021 to 2024 are the 350-room Seda Hotel Bay Area, the 191-room
In response to the growing number of COVID-19 cases in the country, Hotel Okura Newport, 300-room Ibis Styles Hotel, and the 529-room
several hotels have been converted into quarantine facilities for front-line Kingsford Hotel at the Bay Area. With a sluggish leisure market, we do not
medical workers and repatriated OFWs. In our opinion, hotels are likely to expect a substantial delivery of new hotels in the next 12 to 24 months.
remain as quarantine facilities, as tourist and leisure groups are still cautious
Metro Manila hotel supply forecast (2016-2024F)
of travelling due to the pandemic. Hence, we see average occupancy
reaching below 30% by the end of 2021. 4000

The pandemic and the lockdown imposed by the government all over the 2000
country have severely disrupted hotels’ operations. This resulted in the
temporary closure of Marco Polo Hotel in Davao City and Makati Shangri-la 0
Hotel due to an uncertain business environment. We do not see demand 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
recovering to pre-pandemic levels in the next 12 to 18 months. Even news Average room rates by star classification, H1 2020 vs. H2 2020
about the potential roll-out of a COVID-19 vaccine in the Philippines by the
Star classification H1 2020 H2 2020 % change (HOH)
second or third quarter of 2021 is unlikely to immediately lift the local
leisure sector. 3-star 3,566 (USD74) 3,331 (USD69) -6.6%

Meanwhile, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that 4-star 4,705 (USD98) 4,802 (USD100) +2.1%
global air travel is unlikely to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 20244. 5-star 8,957 (USD187) 8,878 (USD185) -0.9%
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 = PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 5Hotels hit by drops in business
3DOT: Only 15 hotels in Metro Manila accredited for ‘staycation’. 4Air travel will not recover until 2024 – IATA.
3 travel, MICE
Primary Author: For further information, please contact:
Joey Roi Bondoc Richard Raymundo
Associate Director | Research | Philippines Managing Director | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 +63 2 8858 9028
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com Richard.Raymundo@colliers.com

Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com

Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com

About Colliers International


Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than
15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For
more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In
2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn
more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter or LinkedIn

Copyright © 2020 Colliers International


The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it.
No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL INDUSTRIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2 021

LOCKDOWN ECONOMY DRIVES OPPORTUNITIES


Joey Roi Bondoc
Associate Director | Research | Philippines
IN LOGISTICS
+63 2 8858 9057 Healthy demand for logistics and warehousing driven by e-commerce and the emergence of a lockdown economy
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com

2021–24
Insights & H2 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Recommendations > Colliers expects manufacturers of essential
items to drive demand starting 2021.
We project a more active take-up Demand for the warehousing sector will
in 2021 and 2022 due to Demand likely be sustained by an economy that is −8 ha 80 ha 44 ha
manufacturing and logistics primarily household spending-driven.
investments. Demand from the > We recorded a total of 22 ha (54.4 acres) of
manufacturing sector will likely new industrial supply in 2020. More than
be led by firms in the essential 90% of supply during the period came from
goods industry such as food, Supply Cavite with the rest in Laguna. In 2021, we 0 117 ha 44 ha
beverage, and pharmaceuticals. expect a fivefold increase in new supply
across CALABA.
We expect a healthy demand for Annual Average
the warehousing sector HOH / YOY / Growth 2020–24 /
supported by the growth of e- End H2 End 2021 End 2024
commerce and the emergence of > In H2 2020 we recorded a decline in land
a lockdown economy. leasehold rates due to muted demand from − 2.8% 2.5% 2.8%
high-value manufacturers including the
We recommend developers
automotive industry. From 2021, we expect
should further modernize their warehouse lease rates to grow at a faster
Rent PHP80 PHP82 PHP89
facilities to capture demand, pace than land leasehold, driven by take up
invest in the cold-chain sector in from essential firms.
preparation for the government’s
vaccine program, and explore > In 2021, we expect vacancy to further +0.7pp −0.1pp
+0.2pp
increase with the new supply, before
viable land outside of CALABA1
declining starting in 2022. This should
such as areas in Northern Luzon.
Vacancy further be sustained once government- 5.7% 6.4% 5.5%
approved investments materialize.
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 1 sq m = 10.76 sq ft; pp = percentage point. Data in the table above represents land
leasehold rates. 1CALABA – Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas.
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL INDUSTRIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2 021

improve access between Southern and Northern Luzon. These infrastructure


RECOMMENDATIONS projects should help industrial park developers attract committed investments
from the manufacturing sector once they materialize. The manufacturing
More technological innovations to modernize facilities segment contributed PHP27.2 billion (USD567.2 million) or 36% to total
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) show that the approved investments in 9M 2020, up from 15.9% in full-year 20193.
transportation and storage sector contributed more than 30% to total
approved investments in 9M 2020, up from 0.6% in the same period of HEALTHY DEMAND FOR LOGISTICS
2019. Demand for warehousing will likely rise over the next 12 to 36 months
driven by the growth of e-commerce and deliveries. We recommend that
developers should modernize their facilities by further adopting
AND WAREHOUSING
technological innovations to offer better services and differentiate Data from the PSA show that approved foreign direct investments in 9M 2020
themselves from competitors. These include automation, advanced robotics, declined by 73% to PHP75.6 billion (USD1.6 billion) from PHP278 billion
conveyor systems, and data storage in the cloud. (USD5.8 billion) in the same period of 2019. The decline was likely due to
dampened investor sentiment given the uncertainties brought about by the
Invest in more cold-chain facilities pandemic. In 2020, investments approved by the Philippine Economic Zone
Authority (PEZA) also declined by 19.2% to PHP95.0 billion (USD2.0 billion)
We recommend that developers construct more cold storage facilities as
from PHP117.5 billion (USD2.4 billion) in 2019. PEZA initially targeted to
demand in areas such as Metro Manila, Pampanga, and the Cavite-Laguna-
approve at least PHP100 billion (USD2.1) in investment pledges in 20204. The
Batangas (CALABA) corridor remains underserved. We expect demand to be
agency noted that the decline was due to delays in approvals as the board was
driven by the growth of deliveries of perishable food items and groceries.
unable to meet during the height of the lockdown in Metro Manila.
This will likely be complemented by the government’s anti-COVID19
vaccination program as some vaccines require cold chain facilities to ensure Despite the decline in committed investments, a number of indicators provide
product quality. The Board of Investments (BOI), together with industry a glimmer of optimism for the industrial sector. The manufacturing,
groups, launched a Cold Chain Industry Road Map that aims to increase cold transportation, and storage sectors contributed 67% to total approved
storage capacity by 10%-15% annually or 50,000 pallets each year1. The investments in 9M 2020. A significant jump from only 16.9% in 2019. We
current capacity of the sector is at 500,000 pallets. This growth should lead expect the CALABA industrial zone to benefit from these investments. The
to a PHP20 billion (USD416.7 million) industry by 20232. The agency also Cavite-Laguna-Batangas-Rizal-Quezon (CALABARZON) region received 16.2%
plans to create a National Cold Chain Committee to monitor programs. In of committed foreign investments in 9M 2020.
our view, developers should consider areas outside of Metro Manila such as
Philippines’ existing and upcoming leasable warehouse supply
New Clark City and Taguig. These locations are likely to be developed by the
Est. total leasable Est. additional space to be
government as agro-industrial zones. Pampanga Location
Supply (sq m) offered through 2021 (sq m)
Metro Manila Metro Manila 825,800 179,800
Widen options and explore developable land in decentralized Cavite 392,000 41,300
locations Laguna 347,600 17,000
Cavite Laguna Batangas 76,500 14,000
The CALABA corridor continues to be the main industrial hub of the country. Batangas Pampanga 73,600 -
Given the lack of available land in the area, industrial park developers should Source: Colliers International
consider parcels of land in alternative locations of Northern Luzon including Another positive for the sector is the growing demand for logistics and
Pampanga, Tarlac, Bataan, and Pangasinan. The upcoming NLEX-SLEX warehousing. This will likely be supported by the growth of e-commerce and
Connector Road and the recently completed Skyway Stage 3 should further an economy that is primarily household-spending driven.
Source: 1SunStar, Cold chain revenue to reach P20B in 2023. 2Malaya Business Insight, Cold chain sector put to test.
2 3Philippibe Statistics Authority. 4BusinessWorld, PEZA investments drop 19% as pandemic drags on .
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL INDUSTRIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2 021

Personal consumption expenditures accounted for 74% of the country’s Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) bill that aims to rationalize tax perks of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2020. In 9M 2020, the share of locators may also affect potential expansion of operations.
warehousing to gross value added in transport and storage reached a The growth of the e-commerce sector has compelled retailers to firm up
record-high 31% from an annual average of 23% from 2016 to 2019. partnerships with logistics firms and warehouse developers. We expect
developers to maximize opportunities by exploring flexible warehousing,
VACANCY TO DECLINE POST-2021 converting vacant mall spaces into microwarehouses, and constructing more
cold storage facilities. Potential growth areas for this industry include
At the end of 2020, vacancy in CALABA further increased to 5.7% from 5.5% Angono, Taytay, and Cainta to cater to the Eastern portion of Metro Manila.
in H1 2020. The increase was likely due to the subdued market conditions
resulting in less absorption of industrial space. In Cavite, we have observed
automotive manufacturers moved out or opted to sell their property given
FASTER WAREHOUSE RECOVERY
the slump in global vehicle sales. Data from the Chamber of Automotive At the end of 2020, land leasehold and warehouse lease rates declined by
Manufacturers Of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers 2.8% and 1.9% YOY, respectively. The decline was partially due to firms that
Association Inc. (TMA) show that vehicle sales in the Philippines reached shutdown operations. Nissan and Honda, due to the pandemic, have
223,800 units in 2020, down 39.5% YOY. announced plans to cease manufacturing in the Philippines9 while Petron
From 2021 to 2023 we expect the completion of 150 hectares (380 acres) of Corp. intends to temporarily close its refinery in Bataan10. Despite certain
new industrial space. These developments include the Lima Technology Park ceasing of operations, Toyota Philippines plans on expanding with its 32-
expansion and the second phase of Cavite Technopark. AyalaLand Logistics hectare (79 acres) vehicle logistics hub in Batangas11. The PHP4.5 billion
Holdings Corporation (ALLHC) also started the construction of additional (USD93.8 million) facility will likely open by late 2021. We see warehouse
ready-built facilities in Cavite Technopark under ALogis, its industrial leasing lease rates growing by 2.9% annually from 2021 to 2022, faster than the
arm. The 16,000 sq metre (172,200 sq feet) phase two will likely 2.7% annual growth for land leasehold.
accommodate light to medium enterprises starting December 2021. The We expect warehouse developers to expand in 2021. Colliers estimates that
existing 13,000 sq metre (139,900 sq feet) phase one caters to around 179,800 sq metres (1.9 million sq ft) of warehouse space will likely
manufacturing firms for products such as tobacco, bags, toys, and laser be offered in Metro Manila starting Q4 2020. Despite the higher warehouse
printing5. rental rate near business districts, firms continue to locate due to its
Despite the amount of new supply in 2021, we do not expect a significant convenience and accessibility of high-density commercial areas. Average
increase in vacancy as previously approved investment commitments will monthly rental rates for warehouses in the capital ranges from PHP220 to
likely materialize and absorb space. The absorption will likely be driven by PHP570 (USD4.6 to USD11.9) per sq metre, higher than the PHP160 to
manufacturers of essential items. In H2 2020, we observed food and optical PHP240 (USD3.3 to USD5.0) for Northern and Central Luzon.
lens manufacturing companies taking space in Batangas and Laguna. Upcoming industrial supply, 2021 to 2023 (in hectares)
However, issues such as global supply-chain challenges due to border Vacancy in CALABA
North-Central Luzon 340 ha Region IV-A H1 2020 H2 2020
restrictions, limited public transportation for employees, the 8% decline in Upcoming Industrial Cavite 5.6% 6.0%
household consumption in 20206, and further contraction of factory activity Supply (2021-2023) Laguna 4.2% 4.2%
Manila Batangas 6.6% 6.8%
may affect the expansion plans of firms. In December 2020, IHS Markit
CALABA Average 5.5% 5.7%
Philippines Manufacturing PMI7 dropped to 49.2 from 49.9 in November
(Cavite-Laguna-Batangas) 150 ha CALABA H1 2020 H2 2020 Growth (HOH)
2020, below the 50-mark level that represents favorable operating Upcoming Industrial Leasehold (Land) PHP82 PHP80 -2.8%
conditions8. Uncertainties surrounding the Corporate Recovery and Tax Supply (2021-2023) Lease Rates (SFB*) PHP283 PHP278 -1.9%
Source: 5Manila Bulletin, AyalaLand Logistics expanding industrial facilities in Naic, Cavite. 6Philippine Statistics Source: Colliers International. *Standard Factory Building. 9BusinessWorld, Nissan to end car assembly in PHL.
3 Authority. 7Purchasing Managers’ Index. 8BusinessWorld, Factory output further shrinks in December. 10Philippine Daily Inquirer, Petron averts permanent shutdown of Bataan refinery. 11ABS-CBN News, Toyota to

open P4.5-billion logistics hub in Batangas late 2021.


Primary Author: For further information, please contact:
Joey Roi Bondoc Richard Raymundo
Associate Director | Research | Philippines Managing Director | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 +63 2 8858 9028
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com Richard.Raymundo@colliers.com

Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com

Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com

About Colliers International


Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than
15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For
more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In
2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn
more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter or LinkedIn

Copyright © 2020 Colliers International


The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it.
No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

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