Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2021-25
Insights & Q4 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Dom Fredrick Andaya Recommendations > Firms providing essential goods and services
Director | Office Services | Philippines are likely to drive office space absorption in
+63 917 831 6725
We continue to see an uncertain 2021. We see cost-sensitive firms occupying
Dom.Andaya@colliers.com
office leasing environment in vacated but fully-fitted spaces in key -70,700 354,500 732,300
Demand sq meters sq meters sq meters
Metro Manila over the next 12 business districts such as Fort Bonifacio.
months. Despite this, we see
some firms, especially those that
provide essential goods and > Colliers sees the delivery of about 886,200 sq
services, expanding and metres (9.5 million sq ft) of new office
absorbing office space. supply in 2021. We estimate that about 67%
Supply 189,200 886,200 658,300
of the new supply will likely be in the Bay
sq meters sq meters sq meters
Overall, the decrease in demand Area, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas CBD.
will likely result in a rental
correction in 2021 before our Annual Average
QOQ/ YOY/ Growth 2020–25
predicted recovery which should End Q4 End 2021 End 2025
start in 2022.
> Subdued leasing across all segments
Amid a challenging market, we (traditional, POGO, and outsourcing)* is likely -6.2% -15.0% +0.8%
recommend landlords and to result in a correction of lease rates. We
tenants focus on opportunities in Rent project rents to bottom out in 2021 before a
recovery starting 2022. PHP851 PHP724 PHP886
the current market environment.
Landlords should be proactive in
offering alternative leasing > Colliers projects vacancy in 2021 to rise as
+2.0pp +3.4pp -0.6pp
models to tenants; be flexible to POGOs continue to vacate office space and
tenants’ request for concessions; outsourcing firms rationalize office
and adjust construction pipelines requirements. We expect vacancy to reach Demand
Vacancy 9.1% 12.5% 6.2%
12.5% in 2021, the highest since 2003.
to prevent further erosion of
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 1 square m = 10.76 square ft. *Also known as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators
rents across the capital region. (POGOs), primarily offshore gaming firms from China. Traditional (includes companies in various sectors such as legal, engineering and construction, government agencies
and flexible workspace operators), POGO, and outsourcing firms.
COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021
From the bitter experience during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), developers
quickly understood the need to turn off the supply tap. This was evident in PARED DOWN SUPPLY
2010 after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when office completion dropped
In Q4 2020, Colliers recorded the completion of about 189,200 sq metres
to 203,000 sq metres (2.2 million sq feet) from 523,000 sq metres (5.6
(2.0 million sq feet) of new office supply. The Bay Area contributed 33% to
million sq feet) in 2009 as projects were deferred or outright cancelled.
new supply during the period with the completion of Uzume Building,
Colliers encourages landlords to be mindful of their office supply pipeline,
Aspire Corporate Plaza and Platinum Tower. Colliers also saw the
balancing new development with their building’s pre-leasing status and the
completion of BGC Corporate Center 2, One Le Grand Tower in Fort
overall pace of leasing recovery.
Bonifacio, Kingston Excell Building in Alabang, Cyber Omega in Ortigas CBD,
Maximize proximity to infrastructure projects and Baja Corporate Center in Makati Fringe. In 2020, new supply only
Colliers encourages developers to maximize the proximity of their buildings reached 425,500 sq metres (4.6 million sq feet), down 60% from our initial
to upcoming key infrastructure projects due to be completed in Metro estimate of 1.07 million sq metres (11.5 million sq feet) at the start of 2020
Manila.
. From 2021 to 2022, Colliers sees the completion of the LRT-2 East as the pandemic hampered the completion of new buildings.
2
COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021
In 2021, we project the completion of about 886,200 sq metres (9.5 million sq The substantial office space coming online across Metro Manila of about
feet) of new supply, down 16% from our initial forecast of about 1.05 million sq 886,200 sq metres (9.5 million sq feet) and our projected net take-up of
metres (11.3 million sq feet) at the start of 2020. Colliers believes that some 354,500 sq metres (3.8 million sq feet) should result in a vacancy of 12.5% in
landlords are inclined to complete buildings that are already on the final stages 2021, up from 9.1% in 2020. Our projected vacancy in 2021 is likely to be the
of construction or have achieved a decent level of pre-commitment as of the highest since the 13.8% recorded in 2003.
end of 2020.
From 2021 to 2025, we see the delivery of about 658,300 sq metres (7.1
million sq feet) of new office space annually, down 13% from our initial
RENTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2021
estimate of 757,500 sq metres (8.2 million sq feet) at the start of 2020. Office rents on average dropped by 17% in 2020. We expect a
further correction in lease rates especially in submarkets with high vacancy
VACANCY TO RISE IN 2021 due to lease terminations (e.g. Quezon City, Makati Fringe and Alabang)
where a substantial amount of office space was vacated by POGOs and high
Office space absorption continued to slide for the third consecutive quarter in levels of upcoming supply (e.g. Bay Area, Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas CBD).
Q4 2020 with net take-up turning negative. For 2020, we recorded a net take- Colliers has observed that landlords have become more flexible in
up of −183,100 sq metres (−1.9 million sq feet), down 120% from the 899,600 accommodating tenants' requests to lower lease rates. These adjustments
sq metres (9.7 million sq feet) absorbed in 2019. 2020 was also the first time may come in the form of longer rent-free periods, fit-out allowances,
that we recorded a negative take-up on an annual basis. delayed or waived escalation of rents, and other customized incentives to
Colliers saw traditional companies leading office space take-up in Q4 2020 secure substantial occupancy of their buildings despite the delivery of
especially firms under the e-commerce, healthcare, telecommunications, significant new supply in 2021. We project a recovery in rents starting in
fintech, and logistics industries. Most of these firms occupied spaces in Makati 2022. The pace of recovery will likely hinge on the progress of rollout of a
CBD, Ortigas CBD, and Fort Bonifacio. COVID-19 vaccine.
Metro Manila office transactions:
Meanwhile, no POGO transactions were recorded for the third consecutive
POGO KPO Voice Traditional†
quarter. In our opinion, the Supreme Court (SC) ruling imposing a temporary
restraining order (TRO)1 on the 5% franchise tax on gross gaming revenues 91% 71% 79% 62%
from POGOs will likely prompt these firms to reconsider leaving the Philippines,
but the bigger issue remains the lack of Chinese manpower due to travel 554K
restrictions. 513K
Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com
Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com
2021–23
Q4 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Insights &
> Take-up in both the secondary and pre-sales
Recommendations markets reached a record low due to slow
A precarious Metro Manila office demand, given the adverse impacts of the
leasing market continues to Demand pandemic. In 2021, we project demand to be -2,612 units 6,977 units 7,469 units
hamper the recovery of the driven by mid-income-to-luxury projects1.
capital region’s pre-sale and > Colliers saw the completion of 3,370 new units
secondary residential markets. in 2020, down 70% from 11,233 units in 2019.
We expect a slight rebound in supply in 2021 as
Prices and rents corrected in 2020
Supply selected projects due to be completed in Q4 1,080 units 10,604 units 9,127 units
due to dampened demand and 2020 were delayed to 2021.
we do not see a recovery in the Annual Average
next 12 months. QOQ / YOY / Growth 2020–23 /
End Q4 End 2021 End 2023
Pandemic-induced construction
> The average rents in the secondary residential
delays continue to limit the -4.5% 0.5% 1.5%
market declined by 7.8% YOY at the end of 2020.
development of new units, while In 2019, average rents across Metro Manila
developers held off launches due increased by 6.9%. We expect a slight rise in rents
to anemic take-up. Rent PHP710 PHP714 PHP741
starting in 2022.
To take advantage of > As of the end of 2020, vacancy in the secondary
+2.7pp +1.4pp 0.13pp
opportunities in the market and market reached 15.6%, a record high. Colliers
tap pent-up demand once market expects vacancy to further increase in 2021,
sentiment starts improving, especially in business districts with substantial 15.6% 16.9% 16.0%
Vacancy
Colliers recommends that stock such as the Bay Area and Fort Bonifacio.
developers explore creative > In 2019, prices increased by 26%, but fell by
-6.6% 0.4% 1.2%
leasing models, consider fringe 13.2% in 2020. Colliers expects a slow recovery of
areas for upcoming projects, and prices starting 2022. This should be supported by
Capital a slow rebound in Metro Manila office leasing
monitor attractive locations and Values PHP201,500 PHP202,200 PHP209,000
price segments for pre-selling starting 2022.
residential developments. Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. Demand represents net take-up in the secondary market (in units). Rent and capital
values are per sq metre. 1Mid-income to Luxury projects = PHP3.2 million and above (USD66,700 and above).
COLLIERS QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | Q4 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2021
Historical secondary vacancy, 1995 to 2020 residential leasing plans on hold. Despite the subdued residential take-up in
2020, we expect a slight improvement by end-2021. We expect this to be
20.0% supported by the central bank’s 4.0% growth projection in cash remittances5 and
1998: 8.4% 2009: 6.3% 2020: 15.6%
10.0% low interest rates, which should sustain competitive mortgage rates. Bangko
AFC GFC COVID-19 Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno noted that the bank intends
0.0% to keep interest rates low in a bid to support the economy6. Data from the BSP’s
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2002
2003
2004
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2020
Q4 2020 Consumer Expectations Survey also showed that the percentage of
households that plan on buying properties in the next 12 months showed an
Source: Colliers International. Note: AFC = Asian Financial Crisis, GFC = Global Financial Crisis
increase to 3.6%, up from 3.3% in Q3 2020.
Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com
Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com
2021–25
Insights & H2 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Tourist receipts also declined by 83% YOY to PHP81.4 billion (USD1.7 billion) The tourism department has also been banking on leisure-based hotel stays
from the record-high of PHP482.16 billion (USD10 billion) in 2019. As and the domestic market to prop up hotel occupancy. However, this is not
international travel restrictions remain in place, the DOT is likely to continue likely to have a significant impact on ADRs and hotel occupancies in Metro
its domestic tourism push by reopening more tourism destinations such as Manila, as consumers are still likely to skimp on non-essential spending,
Boracay, Baguio, Ilocos region, and El Nido and Coron in Palawan, provided including restaurants and hotels. Data from the Philippine Statistics
that the local government units (LGUs) follow the prescribed health and Authority (PSA) showed that the restaurants and hotels sub-segment
safety protocols. With travel restrictions in key markets such as South Korea, contracted by 43.5% in 2020, a reversal from the 6.6% growth in 2019.
China, United States and Japan unlikely to be lifted soon, Colliers does not
see a rebound in foreign arrivals in the next 12 months.
TURTLE-PACED COMPLETION
SUBDUED OCCUPANCY IN 2021 Only 375 new hotel rooms were completed in 2020. This is about 78% down
from our initial projection of about 1,700 rooms in H1 2020. In 2021, Colliers
Colliers saw hotel occupancy in Metro Manila further decline to 20% in H2 sees the delivery of about 1,030 rooms, significantly down from our initial
2020 from 25% in H1 2020. We have observed that the arrival of several estimate of 2,160 rooms. In our view, the construction of most hotels is
thousand Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in H2 2020 was unable to lift likely to be put on hold or deferred due to a slow recovery of the leisure
hotel occupancies. Meanwhile, the tourism department has recently sector as projected by IATA, local stakeholders and industry groups.5
accredited 15 four and five-star hotels in Metro Manila that can operate as
From 2021 to 2024, we see the completion of about 1,900 rooms per
leisure-based hotels3. However, we do not see this development having a
annum. This is less than the 2,100 annual completion that we recorded from
significant impact on occupancies in Metro Manila, as Filipinos continue to
2016 to 2019. Among the new hotels that are scheduled for completion
limit expenditure on essential goods and services.
from 2021 to 2024 are the 350-room Seda Hotel Bay Area, the 191-room
In response to the growing number of COVID-19 cases in the country, Hotel Okura Newport, 300-room Ibis Styles Hotel, and the 529-room
several hotels have been converted into quarantine facilities for front-line Kingsford Hotel at the Bay Area. With a sluggish leisure market, we do not
medical workers and repatriated OFWs. In our opinion, hotels are likely to expect a substantial delivery of new hotels in the next 12 to 24 months.
remain as quarantine facilities, as tourist and leisure groups are still cautious
Metro Manila hotel supply forecast (2016-2024F)
of travelling due to the pandemic. Hence, we see average occupancy
reaching below 30% by the end of 2021. 4000
The pandemic and the lockdown imposed by the government all over the 2000
country have severely disrupted hotels’ operations. This resulted in the
temporary closure of Marco Polo Hotel in Davao City and Makati Shangri-la 0
Hotel due to an uncertain business environment. We do not see demand 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
recovering to pre-pandemic levels in the next 12 to 18 months. Even news Average room rates by star classification, H1 2020 vs. H2 2020
about the potential roll-out of a COVID-19 vaccine in the Philippines by the
Star classification H1 2020 H2 2020 % change (HOH)
second or third quarter of 2021 is unlikely to immediately lift the local
leisure sector. 3-star 3,566 (USD74) 3,331 (USD69) -6.6%
Meanwhile, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that 4-star 4,705 (USD98) 4,802 (USD100) +2.1%
global air travel is unlikely to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 20244. 5-star 8,957 (USD187) 8,878 (USD185) -0.9%
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 = PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 5Hotels hit by drops in business
3DOT: Only 15 hotels in Metro Manila accredited for ‘staycation’. 4Air travel will not recover until 2024 – IATA.
3 travel, MICE
Primary Author: For further information, please contact:
Joey Roi Bondoc Richard Raymundo
Associate Director | Research | Philippines Managing Director | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9057 +63 2 8858 9028
Joey.Bondoc@colliers.com Richard.Raymundo@colliers.com
Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com
Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com
2021–24
Insights & H2 2020 Full Year 2021 Annual Average
Recommendations > Colliers expects manufacturers of essential
items to drive demand starting 2021.
We project a more active take-up Demand for the warehousing sector will
in 2021 and 2022 due to Demand likely be sustained by an economy that is −8 ha 80 ha 44 ha
manufacturing and logistics primarily household spending-driven.
investments. Demand from the > We recorded a total of 22 ha (54.4 acres) of
manufacturing sector will likely new industrial supply in 2020. More than
be led by firms in the essential 90% of supply during the period came from
goods industry such as food, Supply Cavite with the rest in Laguna. In 2021, we 0 117 ha 44 ha
beverage, and pharmaceuticals. expect a fivefold increase in new supply
across CALABA.
We expect a healthy demand for Annual Average
the warehousing sector HOH / YOY / Growth 2020–24 /
supported by the growth of e- End H2 End 2021 End 2024
commerce and the emergence of > In H2 2020 we recorded a decline in land
a lockdown economy. leasehold rates due to muted demand from − 2.8% 2.5% 2.8%
high-value manufacturers including the
We recommend developers
automotive industry. From 2021, we expect
should further modernize their warehouse lease rates to grow at a faster
Rent PHP80 PHP82 PHP89
facilities to capture demand, pace than land leasehold, driven by take up
invest in the cold-chain sector in from essential firms.
preparation for the government’s
vaccine program, and explore > In 2021, we expect vacancy to further +0.7pp −0.1pp
+0.2pp
increase with the new supply, before
viable land outside of CALABA1
declining starting in 2022. This should
such as areas in Northern Luzon.
Vacancy further be sustained once government- 5.7% 6.4% 5.5%
approved investments materialize.
Source: Colliers International. Note: USD1 to PHP48 as of the end of Q4 2020. 1 sq m = 10.76 sq ft; pp = percentage point. Data in the table above represents land
leasehold rates. 1CALABA – Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas.
COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL INDUSTRIAL | MANILA | RESEARCH | H2 2020 | 09 FEBRUARY 2 021
Personal consumption expenditures accounted for 74% of the country’s Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) bill that aims to rationalize tax perks of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2020. In 9M 2020, the share of locators may also affect potential expansion of operations.
warehousing to gross value added in transport and storage reached a The growth of the e-commerce sector has compelled retailers to firm up
record-high 31% from an annual average of 23% from 2016 to 2019. partnerships with logistics firms and warehouse developers. We expect
developers to maximize opportunities by exploring flexible warehousing,
VACANCY TO DECLINE POST-2021 converting vacant mall spaces into microwarehouses, and constructing more
cold storage facilities. Potential growth areas for this industry include
At the end of 2020, vacancy in CALABA further increased to 5.7% from 5.5% Angono, Taytay, and Cainta to cater to the Eastern portion of Metro Manila.
in H1 2020. The increase was likely due to the subdued market conditions
resulting in less absorption of industrial space. In Cavite, we have observed
automotive manufacturers moved out or opted to sell their property given
FASTER WAREHOUSE RECOVERY
the slump in global vehicle sales. Data from the Chamber of Automotive At the end of 2020, land leasehold and warehouse lease rates declined by
Manufacturers Of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers 2.8% and 1.9% YOY, respectively. The decline was partially due to firms that
Association Inc. (TMA) show that vehicle sales in the Philippines reached shutdown operations. Nissan and Honda, due to the pandemic, have
223,800 units in 2020, down 39.5% YOY. announced plans to cease manufacturing in the Philippines9 while Petron
From 2021 to 2023 we expect the completion of 150 hectares (380 acres) of Corp. intends to temporarily close its refinery in Bataan10. Despite certain
new industrial space. These developments include the Lima Technology Park ceasing of operations, Toyota Philippines plans on expanding with its 32-
expansion and the second phase of Cavite Technopark. AyalaLand Logistics hectare (79 acres) vehicle logistics hub in Batangas11. The PHP4.5 billion
Holdings Corporation (ALLHC) also started the construction of additional (USD93.8 million) facility will likely open by late 2021. We see warehouse
ready-built facilities in Cavite Technopark under ALogis, its industrial leasing lease rates growing by 2.9% annually from 2021 to 2022, faster than the
arm. The 16,000 sq metre (172,200 sq feet) phase two will likely 2.7% annual growth for land leasehold.
accommodate light to medium enterprises starting December 2021. The We expect warehouse developers to expand in 2021. Colliers estimates that
existing 13,000 sq metre (139,900 sq feet) phase one caters to around 179,800 sq metres (1.9 million sq ft) of warehouse space will likely
manufacturing firms for products such as tobacco, bags, toys, and laser be offered in Metro Manila starting Q4 2020. Despite the higher warehouse
printing5. rental rate near business districts, firms continue to locate due to its
Despite the amount of new supply in 2021, we do not expect a significant convenience and accessibility of high-density commercial areas. Average
increase in vacancy as previously approved investment commitments will monthly rental rates for warehouses in the capital ranges from PHP220 to
likely materialize and absorb space. The absorption will likely be driven by PHP570 (USD4.6 to USD11.9) per sq metre, higher than the PHP160 to
manufacturers of essential items. In H2 2020, we observed food and optical PHP240 (USD3.3 to USD5.0) for Northern and Central Luzon.
lens manufacturing companies taking space in Batangas and Laguna. Upcoming industrial supply, 2021 to 2023 (in hectares)
However, issues such as global supply-chain challenges due to border Vacancy in CALABA
North-Central Luzon 340 ha Region IV-A H1 2020 H2 2020
restrictions, limited public transportation for employees, the 8% decline in Upcoming Industrial Cavite 5.6% 6.0%
household consumption in 20206, and further contraction of factory activity Supply (2021-2023) Laguna 4.2% 4.2%
Manila Batangas 6.6% 6.8%
may affect the expansion plans of firms. In December 2020, IHS Markit
CALABA Average 5.5% 5.7%
Philippines Manufacturing PMI7 dropped to 49.2 from 49.9 in November
(Cavite-Laguna-Batangas) 150 ha CALABA H1 2020 H2 2020 Growth (HOH)
2020, below the 50-mark level that represents favorable operating Upcoming Industrial Leasehold (Land) PHP82 PHP80 -2.8%
conditions8. Uncertainties surrounding the Corporate Recovery and Tax Supply (2021-2023) Lease Rates (SFB*) PHP283 PHP278 -1.9%
Source: 5Manila Bulletin, AyalaLand Logistics expanding industrial facilities in Naic, Cavite. 6Philippine Statistics Source: Colliers International. *Standard Factory Building. 9BusinessWorld, Nissan to end car assembly in PHL.
3 Authority. 7Purchasing Managers’ Index. 8BusinessWorld, Factory output further shrinks in December. 10Philippine Daily Inquirer, Petron averts permanent shutdown of Bataan refinery. 11ABS-CBN News, Toyota to
Contributors:
Donica Cuenca
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8858 9068
Donica.Cuenca@colliers.com
Martin Aguila
Research Analyst | Research | Philippines
+63 2 8863 4116
Martin.Aguila@colliers.com