Topic 6 Dynamic Series

Topic of the practical lesson: Dynamic series and basics of prognosis
DYNAMIC SERIES AND BASICS OF PROGNOSIS,

INCLUDING ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISEASE COVID-19,
CAUSED BY CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2
I. ACTUALITY OF THE TOPIC. One of the peculiarities of social phenomena is their con-
tinuous development in dynamics. The individual phenomena or parameters are no exception, which
are studied by the various branches of medical science and practice, which over time (for an hour,
day, month, year) often change their intensity. The study of dynamic processes and bases of prognosis
(including acute respiratory disease COVID-19, caused by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2) in the medical
care and health care system has a practical interest in identifying trends in the development of the
studied phenomena, which allows correct analysis of social and hygienic phenomena and predict
changes in the future and, accordingly, to identify and implement the necessary practical measures.
All this is important in the practical activity of the doctor or scientist and makes this topic of
practical lesson relevant in terms of acquiring the necessary theoretical knowledge and practical skills
and abilities in the context of dynamic series and bases of forecasting by the future doctors.
II. PURPOSE OF THE PRACTICAL LESSON:

А) Studying: Master the technique of composing and calculating dynamic series, methods of
their analysis, forecasting and presentation using graphic images.
В) Educational: Formation of social, medical and analytical thinking in the formation, calcu-
lation and analysis of dynamic series in medicine and in the organization of health care.
ІІІ. SPECIFIC EDUCATIONAL GOALS

The student must:
- the theoretical presentation of educational, methodical and scientific
Know (α=I)
material according to the topics of practical lesson.
- the definition of the concept of dynamics, dynamic series, levels of
series;
- the types of the dynamic series and their characteristics;
Know (α=II)
- the indicators of the dynamic series and their characteristics;
- the method of calculating the indicators of the dynamic series;
- their application in practical health care.
- to determine the levels and types of the dynamic series;
- to align the levels of dynamic series, increase the intervals;
Be able (α=III) - to calculate the indicators of the dynamic series;
- to interpret the obtained indicators of the dynamic series;
- to depict graphically the obtained results.
- to use the main indicators of dynamic series in order to make manage-
ment decisions in the context of improving the rate of change of inte-
Be able (α=IV)
grated indicators of state of health of the population in different areas,
in different collectives, etc.
IV. THEORETICAL STATEMENT OF THE TOPIC

In biostatistical practice, the researcher or practitioner has to deal with a large amount of num-
bers, which characterize the development of the phenomenon under study over time.
The individual phenomena or parameters studied by the different branches of medical science
and practice often change their intensity over time and have the direct impact on changes that affect
the development of phenomena, which characterize demographic processes, population morbidity,
health care facilities at different levels of government and forms of ownership, namely, taking into
account their changes in the dynamics.
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THE ESSENCE OF THE REGULARITIES OF THE PHENOMENON IN DYNAMICS

The dynamics (from the Greek δύναμις – a force, which in etymology is interpreted as a state
of motion, course of development, change of something) is a process of development, movement of
medical, social, clinical, organizational and managerial phenomena in time, which allows to charac-
terize them, to reveal the main ways, tendencies and rates of these changes.
The tasks, which biostatistics solves when studying the patterns of the phenomenon in dynam-
ics are:
➢ the measurement of intensity of the dynamics of the phenomenon under study;
➢ the description of the essence of the tendency of development of the studied phenomenon /
its trend;
➢ the assessment of structural changes, constancy and fluctuations of dynamic series.
To display and analyze the dynamics of the studied biostatistical data, in order to better under-
stand and analyze them, the obtained information about the phenomenon / feature should be system-
atized by constructing chronological / time series, which are called dynamic series.
The dynamic series in biostatistics are series of numbers, which characterize the patterns and
peculiarities of changes in social phenomena and processes over time. The analysis of dynamic series
is the most effective means of assessing the trends and patterns of development of phenomena.
Thus, the dynamic series is the consistent series of biostatistical quantities, which characterize
the patterns and peculiarities of changes in medical, biological, social, economic phenomena and
processes over time, namely, it is the digital expression of the certain statistical indicator in time or
space, built in chronological order.
Example of the dynamic series (Table 1):
Table 1 – The dynamics of birth levels in the city of K. (per 1 000 inhabitants) for the last five
years
Years А-year B-year C-year D-year E-year
Indicators of birth levels (per 1000 in-
10.8 9.3 7.6 6.6 7.1
habitants)
Interpretation of the dynamic series: the given dynamic series shows the systematization of the
studied features (birth levels per 1000 inhabitants) in chronological order over time (for the last five
years), which allows the researcher to analyze this natural phenomenon in dynamics and draw ap-
propriate conclusions.
The purpose of the use of the dynamic series is:

• characteristics of changes in the state of health of the population as a whole or its individual
groups, as well as the activities of health care institutions and their changes over time;
• established trends and patterns of changes in phenomena, in-depth analysis of the dynamic
process (speeds, time characteristics of current and strategic planning, etc.);
• predicting the levels of phenomena of public health and health care.
The umbers / levels of the dynamic series are usually represented only by the homogeneous
values: absolute, relative (intensive indicators, ratio) or average values. According to this criterion,
dynamic series can be divided into series of absolute, relative and average values.
It is not always advisable to use absolute values for the analysis of dynamics, as their change is
often associated with a change in the number of environment or bases for formation (for example, a
reduction in the number of cases of hospitalization in the profile inpatient department of hospital may
be related to the reduction of the bed fund over the relevant period of time, rather than to the actual
indicators of health of population).
The consideration in the dynamics of extensive indicators (structure) in most cases is impracti-
cal and can be carried out only in special cases, provided a clear interpretation and mandatory con-
sideration of changes in the structure of the whole aggregate.
The constituent elements of each series of dynamics are two elements, namely:
▪ the list of chronological dates / moments or time intervals (t) (for example: periods of time,
any date, beginning of the year, end of the month, years, quarters, months, decades, days, etc.) to
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which the levels of the series of dynamics belong.

▪ the specific values of the relevant statistical indicators (у), called series levels, which charac-
terize the series levels in the context of the magnitude of the social phenomenon at a given moment
or for a certain period of time and reflect the quantitative assessment / degree of development of the
studied phenomenon.
The scheme of the constituent elements of the series of dynamics:
The dynamics of indicators of general and primary morbidity of all diseases of the popu-
lation of the region of K. (per 1000 inhabitants)
Time (moment or interval) to which it refers (t)

characterizes the level
the statistical indica-
the specific value of
of the series (y);
Years А-year B-year C-year D-year

tor, which
Indicators of the level of the general

980.0 1080.0 1120.0 1210.0
morbidity (per 1000 inhabitants)
Indicators of the level of the primary
720.0 740.0 710.0 700.0
morbidity (per 1000 inhabitants)
The length of the dynamic series is chosen based on the tasks and purpose of research or
analysis of the development of the social phenomenon.
RULES OF CONSTRUCTION OF DYNAMIC SERIES

A prerequisite for the construction and analysis of the dynamic series is the comparability
of the obtained biostatistical data, which is ensured by the presence of such factors as:
• the consistency in the methodology of accounting and calculation of indicators, the use of the
same units of measurement;
• the invariance in the structure of the aggregate;
• the same critical moments of data registration, etc.
When forming dynamic series for scientific research of the development of social phenomena
in time, it is necessary to follow the existing rules of their construction. An important rule of con-
structing dynamic series is the requirement to compare all levels of the series with each other.
The indicators of series of dynamics should be comparable by the territory, range of covered
objects, methods of calculations, time periods, units of measurement.
➢ The important requirement of any dynamic comparisons is the rule of comparing the
data of the respective territory, which includes the levels of the dynamic series. The boundaries of
territorial units of states, regions, districts during the studied period change due to the accession of
new territories, or the separation of certain parts of them.
In each case, the issue of comparison is solved depending on the purpose of the study. To bring
the data of the dynamic series to the comparative form, the previous data are recalculated taking into
account the new limits / boundaries.
➢ In instantaneous dynamic series, there is an inability to make comparison by the critical
moment of registration of levels of phenomena, which are affected by the seasonal fluctuations.
➢ The levels of the dynamic series should be comparable according to the method of their
calculation (for example: in previous years the number of patients treated in the hospital No 1 was
determined at the beginning of each month, namely, on a certain date, and in subsequent years – as
the average monthly number).
➢ The statistical data of the dynamic series may not be comparable for different periods or
lengths of time. The time intervals for which the dynamic series data are given must be equal (month,
quarter, half-year, etc.).
➢ The comparison by the units of measurement requires that the levels of the dynamic series
are always expressed in the same units of measurement.
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The inability to make comparisons due to different units of measurement occurs due to the
fact that the series of phenomena:
➔ accounted for in parallel in two units of measurement (for example: the length of stay of
patients in the inpatient department is accounted for in bed-days, the level of sugar in the blood of a
person / patient is usually measured in mmol/L, etc.);
➔ arise due to the inability to compare the cost of medical services due to monetary valuation
(for example: inflation, exchange rate changes, introduction of highly informative medical technolo-
gies or expensive reagents for laboratory diagnostics into the treatment and diagnostic process, etc.).
To bring to the comparative form of such dynamic series, all previous levels of the studied features
are listed according to the current monetary value.
➔ also caused by the different structure of aggregate for several years. To bring the data of
such series to the comparative form using the so-called standardization of the structure (for example:
standardized coefficients of births, mortality, natural increase, etc.).
The comparison of certain levels of the dynamic series
The important condition for the correct construction of the dynamic series and its subsequent
characteristics is the ability to compare its certain levels. It is necessary to remember about territorial
and qualitative comparison of results, comparing data in dynamics.
The basic requirements for confronting and comparison of certain levels of the dynamic series:
• the equality of periods to which statistical indicators belong, for example, the volume of pub-
lished books for different years is compared only January with January;
• the same completeness of coverage of the studied parts of the phenomenon / consistency in
the structure of the aggregate;
• the coincidence of territorial boundaries of the phenomenon;
• the proportionality of series levels (same scale and same units of measurement);
• the single interpretation of the unit of object of observation, the single methodology and ac-
counting for the calculation of indicators during the period under analysis, which is especially im-
portant in international comparisons.
The main reasons, which make it difficult or impossible to compare the levels of the dynamic
series:
• the changes in the methodology of accounting and calculation of the indicator, in particular
the use of different units for measurement or calculation (for example: assessment of the economic
efficiency of work of treatment and prevention facilities in different monetary equivalents for certain
periods – rubles, coupons, hryvnias, USD);
• the uneven periodization of dynamics (for example: quantitative – by years, qualitative – by
the social and economic periods, changing the priority of different types of institutions in the structure
of treatment and prevention care);
• the change of the list of objects of analysis ((for example: transition of the number of treatment
and prevention facilities from one subordination to another);
• the changes in the structure of the aggregate, as well as territorial changes (for example:
change in the territorial boundaries of regions, districts and others);
• the various critical moments of data registration or the length of the periods to which the levels
belong.
In the presence of the above conditions, the problem is usually solved in the process of data
collection and processing or by recalculating them.
CLASSIFICATION OF THE DYNAMIC SERIES

The dynamic series are classified by the type according to the following features, which al-
lows the researcher to characterize this series, namely:
Coverage (fullness of time):
➢ complete – in which dates (periods) are consecutive, one after another with equal intervals;
➢ incomplete, characterized in the sequence of time by the unequal time intervals.
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The number of indicators, which represent the levels of the series:

✓ one-dimensional, in which one indicator changes over time;
✓ multidimensional, when two, three or more indicators change in time.
In turn, multidimensional dynamic series are divided into:
❖ parallel - where the change of either the same indicator for different objects, or different
indicators for the same object of study is displayed;
❖ series of interrelated indicators, which characterize the dependence of one phenomenon
on another (for example: the dependence of doctors' salaries on the presence of the category, etc.).
The method of comparing specific values of indicators or levels of the series of dynamics:
➔ basic - when all indicators are compared with the first.
➔ chain - when all the data are compared with the previous one.
The type of the given indicators:
• absolute values;
• relative values (intensive indicators, ratio);
• average values.
The presence of the distance between the levels:
▪ equidistant - uniform intervals between dates;
▪ unequally spaced - uneven intervals of time or intermittent periods.
The nature of the main trend of the studied processes:
❖ stationary - if the mathematically expected (predicted) values of the features and the param-
eters of their stability (average deviation, coefficient of variation) are constant, but such that they do
not depend on time;
❖ non-stationary – when dynamic series contain in their own sense a certain trend in the de-
velopment of medical and social processes over time.
The given statistical values:
▪ simple – the dynamic series where the levels of the series are reproduced by the absolute
values. Such dynamic series can be both instantaneous and interval. The simple dynamic series are
the starting point for constructing complex dynamic series.
▪ complex – when in dynamic series the levels of the series are reproduced by the average or
relative statistical values.
Depending on the temporal nature of the studied phenomenon, the levels of the series of dy-
namics can relate either to individual periods (intervals) of time, or to the specific date (moment) of
time. Therefore, all series of dynamics by the type are classified into interval and instantaneous.
INTERVAL / periodic series of dynamics

The interval / periodic series of dynamics ‒ the series of numerical indicators, which charac-
terize the size of the studied phenomenon for certain intervals (periods, intervals) of time (for a dec-
ade, day, month, quarter, half-year, year or other time intervals) (for example: the number of cases of
hospitalization to the inpatient department during the month, the number of lethal cases during the
year, the number of calls to the emergency medical team during the week, etc.).
The example of the interval series of dynamics
The indicator of birth of children in the district of А. for the period from К-year to Н-year
(per 1000 population)
Year К-year L- year М- year Н-year
Indicator of birth of children in the district of А. (per 1000
120 150 206 199
population)
The interpretation of the given statistical data of the interval dynamic series:
а) characteristic of the dynamic series: the given dynamic series ‒ complete (periods follow
consecutively, one after another with equal intervals); one-dimensional (analyzed indicator changes
in time); equidistant (uniform intervals between the studied years); non-stationary (contains in its
own sense the trend of the birth level over time); complex (levels of series are reproduced by the
intensive values); interval (levels of the series summarize the number of birth of children in the district
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of А. for the given periods of time: К-year; L-year; М-year; Н-year).

b) Conclusion: there is a tendency to increase the indicator of level of birth of children in the
district of А. (per 1000 population) for the period from К-year to М-year, which shows positive trends
in the process of reproduction of the population of the studied district of А.
The characteristic peculiarity of interval dynamic series is that their levels are always obtained
when summarizing statistical data for certain periods of time. The magnitude of the levels of the
interval series depends on the length of time interval over which the indicators are calculated. The
longer the time interval, the higher the level.
The interval dynamic series is used when it is necessary to analyze the studied phenomenon in
different fractional periods or for a longer period of time.
The interval dynamic series are more common than instantaneous. In such series, data is accu-
mulated over a period of time. The process of data accumulation for day, week, month, year gives the
final total value for this period of time. This means that the researcher is able to compile and share
such statistical data, and eventually find out. For example: how many patients are hospitalized in the
inpatient department of the hospital or its profile departments during the month, quarter, half a year;
what amount of money is earned by the doctors for medical services provided to patients for months
during the year; calculate how much time the general practitioner / family medicine spends examin-
ing one patient in the ambulatory of family medicine and at home in relation to his daily working
hours (7 hours and 20 minutes).
INSTANTANEOUS SERIES OF DYNAMICS

The instantaneous series of dynamics ‒ the series of numerical indicators, which characterize
the sizes of the studied phenomenon of the certain date or moment of time (for example: hospital
staff, inpatient beds at the end of the calendar year, diseases detected during a medical examination,
etc.).
The example of instantaneous series of dynamics
The statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the number of permanent
population of Ukraine as of January 1 from D-year to Z-year (thous. persons)
Date January 1 D-year January 1 T-year January 1 Z-year
Number of permanent population
42759.7 42590.9 42414.9
(thous.)
The interpretation of the given statistical data of the instantaneous dynamic series:
а) characteristic of the dynamic series: the given dynamic series ‒ complete (periods are con-
secutive, one after another with equal intervals); one-dimensional (one indicator changes over time);
equidistant (uniform intervals between dates); non-stationary (contains in its own sense a certain
trend of development of number of population over time); simple (series levels are reproduced in
absolute values); instantaneous (characterizes the number of permanent residents on a specific date
January 1 of the studied years).
b) Conclusion: there is a tendency to decrease the number of permanent population of Ukraine
as of January 1 of the analyzed years, shows its negative dynamics, which has the direct impact on
the development of the country's economy and its social sphere.
The peculiarity of the momentary series of dynamics is that its levels cannot be summed up,
because separate values of the indicator may be present in several periods and thus may be double
counting (for example: the main number of population, in this example, is present at all levels of the
series, and some persons ‒ at different levels of the series).
The simple summation in momentary series also does not apply because the obtained general
sum cannot have a real meaning (for example: the summation of data on the number of population
registered on a certain date cannot be summed up, because the separate person can be included in
this indicator for several years).
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The real meaning in the given example of the momentary series is only the difference between
the levels of the series, which characterizes the change of the phenomenon in time, and the levels of
the momentary series do not depend on the accounting periods, but only on the moment at which they
are calculated and given.
The distinctive peculiarity of the momentary and interval dynamic series is the concept of
interval. For the momentary series of dynamics, the interval is the time interval between dates,
whereas for the interval dynamic series – the sizes of the studied phenomenon for certain periods of
time.
TECHNIQUES FOR ESTABLISHING TRENDS OR REGULARITIES IN THE CHARAC-

TERISTICS OF THE DYNAMIC SERIES
The transformation of series is used for greater visibility of changes in the studied phenom-
ena. One number in the series is taken as 1, usually 100 or 1000, and, in relation to the given number
in the series, others are calculated.
The alignment of the series is applied at abrupt changes (fluctuations) of levels of the series.
The purpose of alignment - to eliminate the influence of random factors and identify the trend of
changes in the values of phenomena (or features), and then establish the patterns of these changes.
Identifying the main trends in the development of the studied phenomena in the dynamics is
one of the main methods of analysis and generalization of the dynamic series. In biostatistical prac-
tice, the detection of the main trend in the development of phenomena over time is carried out by the
number of methods, where the most effective way to detect the main trend is analytical alignment.
One of the most important problems in constructing dynamic series is the analytical alignment
of the levels of these series, which is achieved either in the process of data collection and processing,
or by recalculating them. The alignment of the levels of the dynamic series is achieved in the follow-
ing ways:
а) the same approach to the units of the aggregate at different stages of formation of this aggre-
gate, which takes into account the nature and purpose of the phenomenon, which takes into account
the nature and purpose of the phenomenon, achieves the homogeneity of the economic content of the
indicators of series;
b) the ensuring equal complete coverage of different parts of the phenomenon; for example,
when characterizing the dynamics of the number of students of higher educational institutions, it is
impossible to take into account in first year only the number of full-time students, and in second - the
number of students of all forms of education;
c) taking into account the boundaries of the territory; so, it is necessary to use data within the
changing boundaries of the territory, when characterizing the economic power of the country, and
when studying the pace of economic development - to take data on the territory within constant limits;
d) the use of a single methodology for calculating the levels of the dynamic series; if the meth-
odology for calculating levels is different, then to align the levels it is necessary to list them according
to the new single methodology;
e) ensuring the same units of measurement of the levels of the series; so, the number of the
products made in different periods is estimated at prices of one period, which are called constant
(fixed);
f) the use of special alignment techniques.
Sometimes the dynamics of the studied phenomenon is not represented in the form of a contin-
uously changing level, but by the individual abrupt changes. In this case, to identify the main trend
in the development of the studied phenomenon resort to the alignment of the dynamic series.
The most common ways to determine the main trend of the dynamic series are:
ENLARGEMENT OF THE INTERVAL – used to summarize data for the series of related
periods. The result is longer periods of time. This smoothes out random fluctuations and more clearly
defines the nature of the dynamics of the phenomenon or calculate averages when the series is mo-
mentary or the levels of the series are represented by the relative / average values.
The calculation of group average - determination of the average value of each enlarged period.
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It is necessary to sum up the adjacent levels of neighboring periods, and then divide the sum by the
number of addend. This achieves great clarity of change over time. The dynamic series is significantly
reduced when enlarging.
The example of enlargement of the interval of the interval series of dynamics
The statistical data on the realization of the drug S. (kg) in the retail pharmacy network of
the city of O. in K-year
Months of K-year I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
The volume of realiza-
790 780 770 610 606 604 470 460 450 660 670 694
tion of the drug S. (kg)
Task:
а) to carry out quarterly equalization of the given series of dynamics of realization of the drug
S. (kg) in the retail pharmacy network of the city of O. in K-year by the enlargement of the interval;
b) to interpret the obtained statistical data.
Method of calculation:
We determine the size of the quarterly and monthly average in K-year, to bring the analyzed
series to a comparative form. It is necessary to determine the volume of realization of the drug S. (kg)
in the retail pharmacy network of the city of O. quarterly, namely:
1) in the І quarter of the K-year the volume of realization of the drug S. (kg) in the retail phar-
macy network of the city of O. is: 790 kg (January) + 780 kg (February) + 770 kg (March) = 2340
kg:
2) in the ІІ quarter - 1820 kg of realization of the drug S.;
3) in the ІІІ quarter - 1380 kg of realization of the drug S.;
4) in the ІV quarter - 2024 kg of realization of the drug S.
In addition, we calculate the group average value of each enlarged period, in this case the
average monthly realization of the drug S. (kg) in each quarter.
2340 kg of realization of the drug S.: 3 months and we get 780 kg of the drug S, which is the
average monthly volume of realization of the drug S. (kg) in the І quarter of K-year, etc.
As a result of enlargement of periods we obtain data of the new dynamic series.

The statistical data on the quarterly and average monthly volume of realization of the drug
S. (kg) in the retail pharmacy network of the city of O. in K-year
Period I quarter II quarter III quarter IV quarter
Volume of realization of the drug S. (kg) 2 340 1 820 1 380 2 024
Average monthly volume of realization of
780 606.6 460 674.6
the drug S. (kg)
Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: The most active realization of the drug S. (kg) in
the retail pharmacy network of the city of O. in K-year is observed in the І and ІV quarters with the
average monthly volume of realization of the drug S. (kg), respectively, in 780 kg and 674.6 kg, which
characterizes the seasonality of demand for this type of medical products due to the growing morbid-
ity of ARVI and influenza among the population of the city of O. in K-year.
Mechanical smoothing is performed by enlarging the intervals, but by sequentially shifting the
phenomenon under study by one day (month, year, etc.) while maintaining the stable interval of pe-
riod.
In this case, the METHOD OF CALCULATING THE VARIABLE / MOVING AVER-
AGE is used for the levels of phenomena of any series of dynamics, expressed in absolute, average
or relative values. This method is used in the presence of odd numbers of temporary periods (3, 5, 7,
9, 11, etc.) for the sufficiently long dynamic series. When calculating the moving average, each level
of the series is replaced by the average value of this level and two adjacent to it.
By calculating the average values of the three periods, two adjacent periods with it pass to a
certain level, which reproduces the moment of "moving" by the periods. Each subsequent interval is
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formed on the basis of the previous one with the replacement of one level, namely, the level is re-
placed by the average value (from this level and two adjacent to it).
In this case, the researcher can use the following formulas to calculate the average values for
the three periods, namely:
𝐲𝟏 +𝐲𝟐 +𝐲𝟑
𝐲𝟏 = (1)
𝟑
𝐲𝟐 +𝐲𝟑 +𝐲𝟒
𝐲𝟐 = (2)
𝟑
𝐲𝟑 +𝐲𝟒 +𝐲𝟓
𝐲𝟑 = (3)
𝟑
This method is often used to characterize the seasonal fluctuations of medical and sociological
phenomena in the health care system and medical service of population. The peculiarity of this is that
the replacement of individual levels of series by the average values calculated from this and neigh-
boring levels.
Calculate the average level for a certain number (often three) of the first in order levels of the
series, then calculate the average level for the similar number of levels, but starting with the second,
then the third, etc.
As a result of smoothing, the dynamic series is formed, where the number of levels is less than
"two" with the three-term arithmetic mean, while with the flow interval (smoothing period) in "five"
(five-term arithmetic mean) the series decreases by four levels.
Thus, the method of variable / moving average allows to identify the trend of development of
the analyzed phenomenon / trend, which is masked by the random fluctuations of indicators.
This method is used when no special accuracy is required, when there is the sufficiently long
series and the loss of two values of the series can be neglected, as well as in cases where the devel-
opment of the phenomenon under the influence of one or two factors is studied.
Example of alignment of the interval dynamic series method of calculating the variable / mov-
ing average.
The statistical data on cases of temporary disability due to ARVI and influenza (per 100 em-
ployees) in OJSC “Polonyna” in the city of Z. for the last seven years
Years
Indicators of temporary disability Current
n-6 n-5 n-4 n-3 n-2 n-1
year
Cases of temporary disability due to
ARVI and influenza (per 100 employ- 81.2 77.0 82.4 78.0 76.0 77.3 76.3
ees)
Task:
а) to align the given dynamic series on cases of the temporary disability due to ARVI and influ-
enza (per 100 employees) in OJSC “Polonyna” in the city of Z. for the last seven years, the method
of calculating the variable / moving average;
А) To sum up the levels of three adjacent years (n - 6, n - 5, n - 4) and the obtained sum is
divided by the number of addends, thus, obtaining the simple arithmetic mean for three levels of the
studied phenomenon:
y 1=
81.2+77.0+82.4
= 80.2 cases of the temporary disability
3
due to ARVI and influenza (per 100 employees) in the city of Z.
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B) To determine the arithmetic mean for the levels: y2 = n - 5, n - 4, n – 3; levels y3 = n - 4, n -

3, n – 2; levels y4 = n - 3, n - 2, n – 1 and levels y5 = n - 2, n – 1 and for the current year in accordance
with the methodology specified in item A.
C) The obtained results for levels y1, y2, y3, y4, y5 are recorded respectively in columns 4, 5, 6,
7, 8 of the table, shifting each time one period forward.
The statistical data on cases of temporary disability due to ARVI and influenza (per 100 em-
ployees) in OJSC “Polonyna” in the city of Z. for the last seven years
Years
No Indicators Current
n-6 n-5 n-4 n-3 n-2 n-1
year
Cases of temporary disability due to
1. ARVI and influenza (per 100 em- 81.2 77.0 82.4 78.0 76.0 77.3 76.3
ployees)
2. Variable / moving average - 80.2 79.1 78.8 77.1 76.5 -
Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: there is a clear trend of decreasing temporary
disability due to ARVI and influenza morbidity in the dynamics for the last seven years from 80.2
cases to 76.5 cases per 100 employees in OJSC “Polonyna” in the city of Z., as evidenced by the
obtained results of mechanical smoothing of the analyzed dynamic series by calculating the variable
moving average for the levels of the analyzed phenomenon.
METHOD OF AVERAGE ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT HALF OR GRAPHIC

METHOD. The series is divided into two parts. Find the arithmetic mean value for each half of it
and build a graph, where the line is drawn through the obtained points while observing the develop-
ment trend of the phenomenon under study.
SMOOTHING BY THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES - one of the most accurate and
advanced ways to align the dynamic series. The method aims to eliminate the influence of temporary
causes, random factors and to identify the main trend of the development of phenomenon in the dy-
namics caused by the influence of the relevant long-term factors.
This technique is based on a mathematical law – through the series of empirical points you can
draw only one straight line, which meets the requirement: the sum of the squares of the deviations of
the actual data from the aligned will be the smallest. The levels of the series are considered as a
function of time, and the task (alignment) is reduced to determining the type of function.
According to this method, the line, which is most suitable for empirical data and characterizes
the direction of the studied phenomenon is determined, in the presence of the main tendency to in-
crease or decrease its frequency. Such line is usually the straight line, which most accurately charac-
terizes the main direction of change (if the levels of the series change evenly over time), but there are
other dependencies (quadratic, cubic, etc.).
The least squares method should be used when the levels of the series change approximately in
arithmetic progression or when there are more or less constant chain values of absolute growth. The
methodological side of the alignment is to replace the actual levels with theoretical ones.
For example, consider the alignment in the straight line (first-order parabola).
The equation of the straight line of the least squares method (4) has the form:
y` = a0 + a1t (4)
where, t – the serial number of the year or other period of time;

y`- the theoretical levels;
a0 – the initial level; a1 – the initial speed of the series.
The calculation of parameters a0; a1 in the straight line by the method of least squares in the
10
equations can be simplified by appropriate selection of the method of calculating time "t", if the tim-
ing t=0 is carried out from the middle of the dynamic series (is interpreted as the conditional beginning
of the timing t=0).
In this case, "t", placed above (or left) the middle of the series will be denoted by the sign "-" (-
1, -2, -3, …), and below or to the right of the dynamic series with the sign "+" (+1, +2, +3, …) with
an odd number of levels. ∑ t always equal to zero.
Under such conditions, the calculation of the parameters "a0" (initial level) and "a1" (initial speed
of the series) is carried out according to the formulas of the first (5) and second constant (6), namely:
∑𝒚
а𝟎 = , (the first constant) (5)
𝒏
∑ 𝒕𝒚
а𝟏 = ∑ 𝒕𝟐
(the second constant) (6)
where, a0 and a1 – the constant parameters for substituting them into the equation;
n – the number of members of the series;
t – the denotation of units of time.
Example of alignment of the interval dynamic series by the method of least squares.
The statistical data on levels of birth (per 1 000 population) in А. region for nine years
Studied parameters of the phenomenon
Researched
No Level of the Level of the
years t tу t2
series "y" aligned series "у’"
1 Current year -4 10.5 - 42 16 9.7
2 N-1-year -3 11.1 - 33.3 9 10.2
3 N-2-year -2 10.8 - 21.6 4 10.7
4 N-3-year -1 11.4 -11.4 1 11.2
5 N-4-year 0 9.6 0 0 11.7
6 N-5-year 1 11.0 11 1 12.2
7 N-6-year 2 12.6 25.2 4 12.7
8 N-7-year 3 14.0 42 9 13.2
9 N-8-year 4 15.0 60 16 13.7
10 n = 9 - year t=0 y =106 tу= 29.9 ∑t = 60
2
Task:
a) to align the series by the method of least squares;
b) to depict graphically the levels of the aligned series;
c) to interpret the obtained statistical data on the dynamics of the phenomenon according to
the aligned levels of the dynamic series.
А) Determine the first constant "а0", namely, ∑ levels of the series =106 is divided into 9 years
and is 11.7 cases of children born per 1000 population of А. region on average for one year;
B) Take for the middle of the analyzed dynamic series "N-4-year", equal to "0" and begin count-
ing the conditional time both up (sign "-") and down (sign "+");
C) Square the timing "t" and find its sum ∑ t2 = 60.
D) Calculate the second constant "а1", namely, ∑ products of the levels of the series "у" for the
conditional time (t) and the obtained value 29.9, which is divided by t2 - 60 and get the magnitude
according to the formula, which = 0.5;
E) Substitute the obtained results into the formula and obtain the following results of the aligned
dynamic series by the method of least squares, as indicated in the column "y”";
For example: the birth level (per 1 000 population) in А. region:
▪ у” =11.7+0.5 (-4) = 9.7 cases of births per 1000 population in А. region in the current year;
11
▪ у”=11.7+0.5 × (-3) = 10.2 cases of births per 1000 population in А. region for N-1 year, etc.
F) In addition, the results of the aligned dynamic series by the least squares method are repre-
sented graphically (Fig. 1).
Рівень ряду «у» Рівень вирівняного ряду «у’»

16 15
14
Рівень народжуваності (на 1000
14 12,6
11,4 11,7 12,2
11,1 10,8 13,7
12 10,5
насел.) в обл. А.
12,7 13,2
10 11,2 11
10,2 10,7
8 9,7 9,6
6
4
2
0
Поточний N-1-рік N-2-рік N-3-рік N-4-рік N-5-рік N-6-рік N-7-рік N-8-рік
рік
Роки
Figure 1 – The dynamics of birth (per 1000 population) for nine years
among the population of А. region
G) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the obtained statistical data of equalization
of the interval dynamic series by the method of least squares, convincingly testify the tendency to
decrease from 13.7 cases to 9.7 cases of birth per 1000 population in А. region during the last nine
years.
In addition, the researcher should take into account that for an even number of levels of the
series of dynamics for the conditional beginning it is necessary to take the average dates between the
two years of the series.
In this case, above or to the left of the average value, the levels of the series will be denoted by
the sign "-" (-1, -2, -3, …), and below or to the right of the dynamic series by the sign "+" (+1, +2,
+3, …) without zero value, however, ∑t will be equal to "0", namely:
2018 - (3) 2015 - ( - 1)

2017 - (2) 2014 - ( - 2)
2016 - (1) 2013 - ( - 3)
The method of equalization by the method of least squares allows to quantify the identified
trend, to estimate the average rate of its development and to calculate prognostic data for the next
period.
It may be necessary to predict dynamic series in practical activity - finding missing members
of the series, by interpolation and extrapolation. The most perfect is to align them according to the
certain analytical equation.
• Interpolation in biostatistics is the finding the missing indicator within the series. Thus, if we
know the equation of the trend for calculating the theoretical levels and substituting in it the interme-
diate value "t" between the given, we can determine the corresponding theoretical level of the result-
ant factor "уt".
• Extrapolation in biostatistics is the finding of unknown levels at the end or beginning of
dynamic series. That is, extrapolation is used in prediction of social phenomena in the future with the
12
assumption that the identified trend will continue beyond the studied dynamic series.
INDICATORS OF DYNAMIC SERIES

For an in-depth study of processes over time, the indicators of the dynamic series are calculated.
In this regard, the methods of biostatistics allow us to measure the size of the changes presented in a
particular dynamic series, which have occurred over a certain period of time, and to quantify the
direction of their development.
For this purpose, use such statistical indicators as: absolute increase, growth rate, increase
rate and the absolute value of one percent of increase, which are obtained by comparing the initial
levels of dynamic series.
The calculation of the indicators of the dynamic series is based on the absolute or relative com-
parison of the levels of the dynamic series.
The levels of the series are the values of the components of the dynamic series. The value of
the first member of the series is called the initial / output level, the value of the last member of the
series - the final level, the average value of all members of the series is called the average level.
In this case, the compared level is called the current level, and the level with which the com-
parison is made - the basic. The basis of comparison is often taken the previous level or the initial/first
level of the series of dynamics.
When several successive levels are to be compared, then biostatistics as a science offers two
options for comparison:
▪ the first option is a comparison with a constant base: each level of the output dynamic series
is compared with the same level taken as the base of comparison. Most often, the basis of compari-
son is taken as either the initial (first) level, or the level from which begins the new, I emphasize,
the new stage of development of the phenomenon. The choice of comparison base must be justified
historically and economically. This comparison is called the comparison with the constant base;
▪ the second option is a comparison with a variable base: each level of the output dynamic series
is compared with the previous level directly to it. This comparison is called the comparison with the
variable base.
According to these two variants of comparison, two systems of indicators of the dynamic series
are obtained, which directly depends on the purpose and objectives of the study. We can obtain com-
pletely different values of indicators, depending on what level is taken as the basis of comparison.
Thus, when calculating the indicators of the dynamic series in the basic way, the value of each
existing level of the dynamic series is compared with the first (initial) level, the basic indicators are
obtained. As a rule, this method allows to establish trends in the development of the studied phenom-
enon over a long period of time (most often this level is taken as the level of the last year of the
decade).
When calculating these indicators in the chain way, we obtain data, which characterize the
change of each existing indicator in relation to the previous level of the dynamic series, resulting in
obtained chain indicators. In this case, nothing affects the obtained result except the actual change
in the phenomenon. The chain method allows you to analyze the change in the phenomenon in a short
period of time.
To characterize the speed of change of the process of the phenomenon, the following indicators
are used:
✓ The indicator of absolute increase/decrease (Аinc) characterizes the speed of change of the
process (absolute value of increase (decrease) per unit of time). The absolute increase is calculated as
the difference between the given level and the previous one; it is denoted by the sign "+", character-
izing the increase, or the sign "-", characterizing the decrease of the phenomenon.
✓ The rate of increase/decrease (Rinc) characterizes the value of the increase (decrease) in
relative indicators in % and is defined as the percentage ratio of absolute increase (decrease) to the
previous level of the series; is denoted by the sign "+" (increase) or the sign "-" (decrease).
13
INDICATOR OF ABSOLUTE INCREASE / DECREASE

The indicator of absolute increase (Аincr) – the indicator of the dynamic series, which char-
acterizes how many units the level of the indicator has changed compared to the level of the previous
or base period.
In other words, the absolute increase is the difference between two levels, one of which is
taken as the basis for comparison. It shows how many units each given level differs from the level
taken as the basis of comparison and is necessarily expressed in the same units of measurement, as
levels of the series.
The dynamic series of absolute increments makes it possible to determine the direction (in-
crease, decrease) of the dynamics of the studied phenomenon. In addition, the comparison of absolute
increments with each other can establish the nature of growth or reduction in absolute terms (uniform,
accelerated, abrupt, etc.).
The absolute increase cannot give an exhaustive characteristic of the change of phenomena, but
it indicates a general trend of change of phenomena over the analyzed period of time.
In general, the formula for calculating the indicator of absolute increase is as follows:
Basic Аincrb = уі – у-1
Chain Аincrch = уі – уі-1
where, Аincrb – the basic indicator of absolute increase;

Аincrch – the chain indicator of absolute increase;
уі – the analyzed level of the dynamic series;
у1 – the initial/basic level of the series of dynamics;
уі –1 – the previous level of the series of dynamics.
Method of calculating the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb)

The statistical data on days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 working people) due to
diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years
Indicators А-year B-year C- year D-year
Number of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.75
100 working people)
*Take statistical data of A-year as a basis/base.
Task:
а) to calculate the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD (per 100 working
people) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years;
А) to calculate the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD of employees of
PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in B-year
in comparison with A-year:
+4.8 days increased
Аincrb of days of 44.6 days of TD 39.8 days of TD
TD in B-year in com-
TD in B-year in B-year in А-year (per
= - = parison with A-year
(per 100 work- (per 100 working 100 working
(per 100 working peo-
ing people) people) people)
ple)
B) to calculate the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD of employees of
PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in C-year
14
Аincrb of days of 55.5 days of TD 39.8 days of TD +15.7 days increased TD

TD in C-year (per in C-year (per in А-year (per in C-year in comparison
= - =
100 working peo- 100 working peo- 100 working peo- with А-year (per 100
ple) ple) ple) working people)
C) to calculate the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD of employees of

PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in D-year
in comparison with А-year:
Аincb of days of 59.75 days of TD 39.8 days of TD +19.9 days increased TD
TD in in D-year in А-year (per in D-year in comparison
= - =
D-year (per 100 (per 100 working 100 working peo- with А-year (per 100
working people) people) ple) working people)
D) The obtained basic indicators of the absolute increase in the days of TD due to diseases of
the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 working people)
for the purpose of illustration, we make out in the table.
The data on the number of days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 working people) due
to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years
Indicators А-year B-year C-year D-year
Number of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system
of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 100 work- 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.75
ing people)
Аincrb of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system
of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 100 work- - +4.8 +15.7 +19.9
ing people)
*Take statistical data of A-year as a basis/base.
E) The interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the basic indicator of absolute increase
of days of TD (per 100 working people) in B-year shows growth of days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. in B-year in comparison with А-year by
+4.8 days per 100 employees; in C-year – by +15.7 days per 100 working people; in D-year - by
+19.9 days per 100 employees, which requires processing of the number of preventive measures to
reduce the morbidity of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K.
Method of calculating the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincrch)

The statistical data on the number of days of temporary disability (ТD) (per 100 working
people) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K.
of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 100 work- 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.75
ing people)
*Take statistical data of the previous year as a basis/base.
Task:
а) to calculate the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD (per 100 working
people) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years;
А) to calculate the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincrch) of days of TD of employees of
PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in B-year
Аincrch of days of 44.6 days of TD 39.8 days of TD +4.8 days increased TD
TD in B-year (per in B-year (per in А-year (per in B-year in comparison
= - =
100 working peo- 100 working peo- 100 working peo- with А-year (per 100 work-
ple) ple) ple) ing people)
15
B) to calculate the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincch) of days of TD of employees of

PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in C-year
in comparison with B-year:
44.6 days of +10.9 days increased
Аincrch 55.5 days of TD
TD in B-year TD in C-year in com-
of days of TD in in C-year (per
= - (per 100 = parison with B-year
C-year (per 100 100 working
working peo- (per 100 working peo-
working people) people)
ple) ple)
C) to calculate the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincrch) of days of TD of employees of
PJSC No 1 in the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 working people) in D-year
in comparison with C-year:
Аincrch +4.25 days increased
59.75 days of TD 55.5 days of TD
of days of TD TD in D-year in com-
in D-year in C-year
in D-year (per = - = parison with C-year
(per 100 working (per 100 working
100 working (per 100 working peo-
people) people)
people) ple)
D) The obtained chain indicator of absolute increase of days of TD due to diseases of the nerv-
ous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 working people) for the
purpose of illustration, we make out in the table.
The statistical indicators of the dynamics of days of temporary disability (per 100 employees)
due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K.
Number of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous sys-
tem of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 100 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.75
working people)
Аincrcb of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system
of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. (per 100 work- - +4.8 +10.9 +4.25
ing people)
*Take statistical data of the previous year as the base.
E) The interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the chain indicator of absolute increase
of days of TD (per 100 working people) in B-year shows the increase in the days of TD due to diseases
of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K. in B-year in comparison with А-
year by +4.8 days per 100 employees; in C-year – by +10.9 days per 100 working people in compar-
ison with B-year; in D-year - by +4.25 days per 100 employees in comparison with C-year, which
requires processing of the number of preventive measures to reduce the morbidity of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 in the city of K.
There is a connection between the basic and chain absolute increase, the essence of which is
that the sum of the chain absolute increments is equal to the basic absolute increment of the last period
of the dynamic series. The indicator of absolute increase cannot give the exhaustive characteristic of
change of the phenomena, but it indicates the general tendency of change of the phenomena for the
analyzed term of time. A more comprehensive and exhaustive characteristic of the development of
the phenomenon can be obtained only when the given absolute indicator (absolute increase), supple-
mented by the relative indicators: growth rate and increase rate.
INDICATOR INCREASE / DECLINE RATE

The rate of increase/decline (Rincr) – the ratio of the absolute increase of the indicator to the
level of the indicator taken as the basis of comparison. The increase rates are calculated as the ratio
of each given absolute increase of the indicator to the previous level, but can be calculated in relation
to any other level taken as a basis for comparison.
The rate of increase/decline (Rincr) is defined as the ratio of the absolute increase to the absolute
16
previous or initial level and shows how many percent of the compared level is greater or less than the
level taken as the basis of comparison.
The calculation of indicator of the rate of increase/decline (Rincr) is carried out according to
the formula (7):
Аincrу1
Rincr = Х 100% (7)
уі –1
where: Rincr – the indicator of the rate of increase/decline;

Аincrу1 – the indicator of the absolute increase for a given period of time;
The rate of increase/decrease characterizes the magnitude of the increase (decrease) in relative
indicators and in % and is defined as the percentage of relation of absolute increase (decrease) to the
previous level of the series level and is denoted by a sign "+" (increase) or a sign "-" (decrease).
There are basic rate of increase/decrease and chain rate.
The basic rate of increase/decrease is calculated as the ratio of the reported increase rate to
the basic period (for example, September-January). The calculation of the basic indicator of the in-
crease rate (Rincb) is carried out according to the following formula (8):
Апру1
Rincrb = х 100% (8)
уі
where: Rincrb – the indicator of the basic rate of increase;

Аincrу1– the indicator of the absolute increase for a given period of time;
уі – the basic level of the series of dynamics.
The chain rate of increase/decrease is calculated as the ratio of the increase rate т of the
reporting period to the previous one (for example, September-August). The calculation of the chain
indicator of increase rate (Rincrch) is carried out according to the following formula (9):
Аincrу1
Rincrch = х 100% (9)
уі –1
where, Rincrch – the indicator of the rate of increase;

Аincrу1– the indicator of the absolute increase for a given period of time;
The rate of increase/decrease shows how much this indicator in the current period differs from
the indicator in the previous period. The value in the previous period (or basis for comparison) is
taken as 100%.
Method of calculating the basic indicator of the rate of increase/decrease (Rincr)

The statistical data on days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 employees) due to diseases
of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years
Number of days of temporary disability due to diseases of
the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.7
of K. (per 100 employees)
Absolute increase - +4.8 +10.9 +4.2
*Take the statistical data of A-year as the basis.
Task:
17
а) to calculate the basic indicator of the rate of increase/decline (Rincrb) of days of TD (per
100 employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for
4 years;
b) interpret the obtained statistical data.
А) calculation of the basic indicator of the rate of increase/decline (Rincrb) of days of TD of
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 employees)
in B - year in comparison with A - year:
+4.8 days of TD in + 12.1 % increased tempo-
Rincrb B - year (per 100 rary disability due to diseases
of days of TD in employees) of the nervous system of em-
= х 100 % =
B - year (per 39.8 days of TD in ployees of PJSC No 1 of the
100 employees) А – year (per 100 city of K. in B – year com-
employees) pared with A-year
B) Similarly, we calculate the basic indicator of the rate of increase/decline (Rincb) of days of
TD of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 em-
ployees) in C - year compared to A - year and in D-year compared to А – year.
C) The obtained basic indicators of the rate of increase of days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 employees) for the
purpose of illustration are drawn up in the table.
The data on the number of days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 employees)
due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years
Indicators А- year B-year C-year D-year
tem of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.7
employees)
Rincb of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system
of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 em- - +12.1% +27.4% +10.6%
ployees)
D) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the indicator of the basic rate of increase of
days of TD (per 100 employees) in B - year shows the increase of days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in comparison with A-year by +12.1%;
the indicator of the basic rate of increase of days of TD (per 100 employees) in C - year – shows the
increase of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city
of K. in comparison with А - year by +27.4%; the indicator of the basic rate of increase of days of
TD (per 100 employees) in D - year shows the increase of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in comparison with A-year - by +10.6%, which
requires the processing of the number of preventive measures to reduce morbidity of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K.
Method of calculating the chain indicator of the rate of increase (Rincrb)

Output data:
А- B- C- D-
Indicators
year year year year
Number of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of
39.8 44.6 55.5 59.7
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 employees)
*Take the statistical data of the previous levels of the series as the basis.
Task:
18
а) to calculate the chain indicator of the rate of increase/decrease (Rincrch) of days of TD (per
100 employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for
4 years;
А) Calculation of the chain indicator of the rate of increase/decrease (Rincrch) of days of TD of
in B - year:
+4.8 days of TD in
+ 12.1 % increased temporary dis-
Rincrch of days of B – year (per 100
ability due to diseases of the nerv-
TD in B – year employees)
= х 100 % = ous system of employees of PJSC
(per 100 employ- 39.8 days of TD in А
No 1 of the city of K. in B - year in
ees) – year (per 100 em-
comparison with A - year
ployees)
B) Similarly, we calculate the chain indicator of the rate of increase/decline (Rincrch) of days
of TD of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100
employees) in C - year compared to B – year and in D - year compared to C – year.
C) The obtained chain indicators of the increase rate of days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 employees) for the
purpose of illustration are drawn up in the table.
The statistical data on the number of days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 employees)
employees)
Rincrc days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 employ- - +12.1% +24.4% +7.5%
ees)
D) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the chain indicator of the increase rate of
days of TD (per 100 employees) in B - year shows the increase of days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in comparison with A - year by +12.1%;
the indicator of the chain rate of increase of days of TD (per 100 employees) in C - year – shows the
increase of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city
of K. in comparison with B - year by +24.4%; the indicator of chain rate of increase of days of TD
(per 100 employees) in D - year shows the increase of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. compared to C - year - by +7.5%, which requires
processing of the number of preventive measures to reduce the morbidity of the nervous system of
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K.
RATE OF GROWTH/DECREASE
To characterize the change in the process of one period in relation to the previous period, the
indicator such as growth/decrease rate is used.
Rate of growth/decrease (Rgr) - the ratio of two levels, one of which is taken as the basis for
comparison, which always shows how many times the current level of the series of dynamics is
greater than or less than the level that is taken as the basis for comparison.
The growth/decrease rate characterizes the intensity of change of the studied phenomenon over
time and determines how many times (from one or 100%) the current/comparable level of the series
of dynamics is greater or less (from one or 100%) than the level taken as the basis for comparison.
The indicator of growth/decrease rate can be expressed as coefficients or percentages. The
19
growth rate, expressed in percent, is called the percentage of growth (Rgr), when this indicator, ex-
pressed in units, it will be the coefficient of growth (Cgr).
The calculation of the indicator of rate/coefficient of growth (Rgr) is carried out according to
the formulas (10, 11):
уі
Basic Rgrb = х 100% (10)
у1
уі
Chain Rgrc = х 100% (11)
уі–1
where, Rgrb – the basic indicator of growth rate;

Rgrch – the chain indicator of growth rate;
уі – the analyzed level of the series of dynamics;
у1 – the initial/basic level of the series of dynamics;
If the value of the growth rate is more than one or one hundred percent, it indicates that the
current level of the series of dynamics is greater than the level with which the comparison is made.
If the value of the growth rate is equal to one or one hundred percent, it characterizes that there
is no change in the levels of the series.
If the value of the growth rate is less than one or one hundred percent, it indicates that there has
been the decrease in the level of the series. In this case, we are not talking about the rate of growth,
but the rate of decline or fall. This indicator cannot have a minus sign, no matter what it characterizes.
There is a certain relationship between chain and basic growth rates, namely:
а) the product of the chain growth rates is equal to the basic growth rate for the corresponding period;
b) the specific weight from the division of two adjacent basic coefficients of growth is equal to the corre-
sponding chain growth coefficient. The relationship between chain and basic growth rates is used to move
from one growth rate to another in cases, where the absolute levels of the series of dynamics are un-
known. At different values of the growth rate formula, three variants of development can be observed:
1) The growth rate of more than one or 100% means positive dynamics.
2) The growth rate is one or 100% means that no change has occurred.
3) The growth rate less than one or 100% means negative dynamics.
The method of calculating the basic indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb)

Output data:
employees)
Task:
а) to calculate the basic indicator of the rate of growth/decrease (Rgb) of days of TD (per 100
employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years;
А) Calculation of the basic indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb) of days of TD of employees
of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 employees) in B - year
in comparison with А-year:
Rgrb of days 44.6 days of TD in B - by 112.1 % increased the
= х 100 % =
of TD in B - year (per 100 employees) days of TD due to diseases
20
year (per 100 of the nervous system of em-

employees) 39.8 days of TD in А – ployees of PJSC No 1 of the
year (per 100 employees) city of K. in B - year com-
pared with А-year
B) Similarly, we calculate the basic indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb) days of TD of
in C - year compared to А-year and in D - year compared to А-year.
C) The obtained basic indicators of the growth rate of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 employees) for the purpose
of illustration are drawn up in the table.
employees)
Rgrb of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 employ- - +112.1% +139.4% +150.0%
ees)
D) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the basic indicators of the growth rate of days
of TD (per 100 employees) in B - year shows the growth of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in B-year in comparison with А-year by +112.1%;
in C - year – shows the growth of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of
PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in C-year in comparison with A-year by +139.4%; in D - year shows the
growth of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of
K. in D - year compared to A-year - by +150.0%, which requires the processing of the number of
preventive measures to reduce the morbidity of nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city
of K.
The method of calculating the chain indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrch)
Output data:
The statistical data on days of temporary disability (TD) (per 100 employees) due to diseases of
the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years
C- D-
Indicators A-year B-year
year year
of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 em- 39.8 44.6 55.5 59.7
ployees)
*Take the statistical data for previous years as the basis.
Task:
а) to calculate the chain indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb) of days of TD (per 100 em-
ployees) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years;
А) Calculation of the chain indicator of the growth/decrease rate (Rgrb) of days of TD of em-
ployees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 employees) in
B - year in comparison with A-year:
44.6 days of TD in B – year by 112.1 % increased the
Rgrch of days of
(per 100 employees) days of TD
TD in B – year 100
= х = due to diseases of the nervous
(per 100 employ- 39.8 days of TD in А – year %
system of employees of PJSC
ees) (per 100 employees)
No 1 of the city of K. in B -
21
year in comparison with A -

year
B) Next, we calculate the chain indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb) of days of TD of em-
ployees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100 employees) in
C - year compared to B-year and in D-year compared to C-year.
C) The obtained chain indicators of the growth rate of the days of TD due to diseases of the
nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years (per 100 employees) are drawn
up in the table:
employees)
Rgrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system
+112.1 +124.4 +107.5
of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 em- -
% % %
ployees)
D) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the chain indicator of growth rate of the days
of TD (per 100 employees) in B - year shows growth of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in comparison with A-year by +112.1%; in C -
year – shows growth of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1
of the city of K. in comparison with B-year by +124.4%; in D - year shows growth of days of TD due
to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. in comparison with C -
year - by +107.5%, which requires the processing of the number of preventive measures to reduce
the morbidity of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K.
There is a relationship between basic and chain growth coefficients: the multiplication of chain
growth coefficients is equal to the basic growth coefficient of the last period of the series of dynamics,
and the ratio of the next basic growth coefficient to the previous one is equal to the corresponding
chain growth coefficient.
The difference between indicators of growth/decrease rate and increase/decline rate

The difference in understanding the essence of indicators of growth rate and increase rate. In
this regard, we highlight a few provisions in which the difference between these biostatistical values,
namely:
▪ The growth rate formula and the increase rate formula are calculated by different methods.
▪ The growth rate reflects the percentage of one indicator relative to another, and the increase rate
shows how much it has grown.
▪ On the basis of calculations according to the formula of growth rate it is possible to calculate
increase rate, thus according to the formula of increase rate calculation of growth rate is not carried
out.
▪ The growth rate does not take a negative value, and the increase rate can be both positive and
negative value.
INDICATOR OF ABSOLUTE VALUE 1 % INCREASE/DECLINE

When comparing series of dynamics with different initial levels (for example, average, inten-
sive, absolute) the indicator of absolute value of one percent of increase/decline (А1%incr) is
used.
The absolute value of one percent increase characterizes how many units of the studied phe-
nomenon are in one percent of its change. This indicator allows you to determine the weight of each
percentage increase, and what absolute value is hidden behind this percentage.
22
The indicator of the absolute value of one percent increase/decline (А1%incr) is calculated as
the division of the absolute increase (Аincrc) to the increase rate (Rincr) for the same period of time
according to the formula (12):
А1%in- Аincr
= (12)
crch Rincr
where: Аincr – the indicator of absolute increase

Rincr – the indicator of increase rate
In practice, by mathematically transforming the formula for calculating this indicator, it is

proved that the absolute value of one percent increase is equal to one-hundredth of the basic level,
which is 100 times less than the previous level of the series of dynamics.
The calculation of the indicator of absolute value of one percent increase/decline (А1%incr)
has economic and social content only on the chain basis, because on the main basis for all time
segments will be obtained the same value of the indicator – one-hundredth of the initial/first level.
The method of calculating the chain indicator of the absolute value of 1% increase
Output data:
B- D-
Indicators А-year C-year
year year
Аincrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of
- +4.8 +10.9 +4.2
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 employees)
Rincrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of +12.1 +24.4
- +7.5%
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 employees) % %
Task:
а) to calculate the chain indicator of the absolute value of 1% increase (А1%incrc) of days of
TD (per 100 employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city
of K. for 4 years;
А) Calculation of the chain indicator of the absolute value of 1% increase (А1%incrch) of days
of TD of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system (per 100
employees) in B–year:
А1%incr of days +4.8 days of TD in B – year 0.4 days increased temporary disability
of TD in B – year (per 100 employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of
= =
(per 100 employ- +12.1% days of TD in B- employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K.
ees) year (per 100 employees) in B - year in comparison with A - year
B) Similarly, we calculate the chain indicator of the absolute value of 1% increase (А1%incrch)
of days of TD among employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of the nervous system
(per 100 employees) in C – year and in D – year.
C) The obtained data of the chain indicators of the absolute value of 1% increase (А1%incrch)
of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4
years (per 100 employees) for the purpose of illustration are drawn up in the table:
The statistical data on the number of days of temporary disability (per 100 employees) due to
diseases of the nervous system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. for 4 years
Аincrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous sys-
- +4.8 +10.9 +4.2
tem of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100
23
employees)
Rincrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous sys-
tem of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per 100 - +12.1% +24.4% +7.5%
employees)
А1%incrch of days of TD due to diseases of the nervous
system of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. (per - 0.4 0.45 0.56
100 employees)
D) Interpretation of the obtained statistical data: the chain indicator of the absolute value of
1% increase (А1%incrc) of days of TD (per 100 employees) due to diseases of the nervous system of
employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. shows the increase in the value of 1% of the indicator of
А1%incrc, namely: in B-year ‒ the increase of TD by 0.4 days of TD compared to A-year; in Cyear –
by 0.45 days of TD in comparison with B-year; in D-year - by 0.56 days of TD in comparison with C
- year. The analysis of the state of morbidity of employees of No 1 of the city of K. due to diseases of
the nervous system is carried out over a long period of time and tends to a steady increase of indicator
of the absolute value of 1% increase. All this together requires the establishment of risk factors, which
negatively affect the health of employees of PJSC No 1 of the city of K. and extensive sanitary, edu-
cational work on the healthy lifestyle and reducing the psycho-emotional load in the labor collective
of PJSC No 1 of the city of K.
GRAPHIC IMAGE OF INDICATORS OF DYNAMIC SERIES

The graphic image of changes in the levels of the time series allows you to visualize the process
of development of phenomena over time and they are called dynamic. The ways to graphically rep-
resent the dynamics are quite diverse (see the topic of the practical lesson "Graphic image of statis-
tical data"). Only some types of graphs are offered for consideration. Most often, a line diagram is
used to graphically represent dynamic series. The line diagram is built in a rectangular coordinate
system, in which the abscissa axis have dates or periods of time, and on the ordinate axis-levels of
the series of dynamics. Each point of the line diagram corresponds to the level of the dynamic series
relating to a particular moment or period of time. When graphically representing the interval series
of the dynamics, the level should be attributed to the middle of the period indicated on the scale.
Unsuccessfully chosen ratio of scales on the horizontal and vertical axes of the diagram can
significantly change the appearance of the curve and create a misconception about the nature of the
dynamics of the depicted phenomenon. In the graphic image, when the levels of the series of dynam-
ics differ greatly in magnitude, it is advisable to use a semi-logarithmic grid, in which periods of time
are plotted on the abscissa axis in natural scale, and on the ordinate axis - logarithms of the dynamic
series levels.
The graphic image can be used for comparative analysis of the development of two or more
phenomena. The dynamics of development of these phenomena is presented on the same graph. How-
ever, it is recommended to place no more than three or four curves on one graph, as a large number
of them complicate the drawing, and the diagram loses clarity.
In addition to the line diagram for the graphic image of the development of the phenomenon
over time, radial diagrams are used. They are convenient in the case when the dynamics of phenom-
ena is periodic (for example, seasonality). In radial diagrams, time is indicated on the outer circle,
and on diameters values of levels are deducted, starting from the center of the circle. The resulting
concentric breaks represent the whole series of dynamics with the repetition of fluctuations over the
years.
The column diagrams are used to compare individual levels of the series of dynamics. They
are widely used to promote the development of phenomena over time in short periods of time. The
placement of columns strictly corresponds to the sequence of changes in the phenomenon over time.
The columns can be arranged close together and separately. The graphic image of several series of
dynamics using column diagrams is convenient to do the so-called "influx", when the columns are
pushed against each other.
24
V. CONTROL QUESTIONS FOR CHECKING THE ACQUIRED

THEORETICAL KNOWLEDGE
1) Explain the essence of the laws of the phenomenon in the dynamics.
2) In which cases for the processing and analysis of statistical material resort to the compilation of
the dynamic series? What is the dynamic series?
3) What are the levels of the dynamic series and how do you understand: the comparison of individual
levels of the dynamic series?
4) Describe the components of the elements of the dynamic series.
5) List the rules for constructing dynamic series.
6) Name the basic principles of classification of dynamic series.
7) Identify the types of dynamic series.
8) Explain the content of the interval/periodic series of dynamics.
9) What is the momentary dynamic series?
10) List the ways to align dynamic series.
11) What is the content of the enlarged interval of the dynamic series?
12) Briefly define the method of alignment of the dynamic series using the method of mechanical
smoothing with the method of calculating the variable/moving average.
13) Describe the alignment of the dynamic series by the method of least squares.
14) What indicators are calculated for the analysis of the dynamic series?
15) Why for the analysis of dynamic series it is represented graphically?
VI. METHODICAL MATERIAL

FORMING PROFESSIONAL PRACTICAL SKILLS AND ABILITIES
In order to acquire professional practical skills and abilities the students are recommended to:
а) use data of the topic of the practical lesson;
b) use the computer program Microsoft Excel in the calculation of the obtained statistical val-
ues.
SITUATIONAL TASK No 1
The statistical data on the number of urban population at the beginning of the year
in the region No 1 during the last five years (abs. data in thousands)
Years А-year B-year C-year D-year E-year
Number of urban population (thousands) 660 700 740 806 866
In accordance with the data of the situational task you need:
1. To describe the given dynamic series;
2. To calculate the basic indicators of the dynamic series:
a) the indicator of absolute increase;
b) the indicator of increase rate;
c) the indicator of growth rate;
d) the absolute value of 1% increase.
3. To represent graphically the obtained basic indicators of increase rate and growth rate.
The statistical data on general morbidity of respiratory diseases of the population
of the city of T. for the last seven years (per 1000 population)
Years А B C D E F G
Indicator 10.0 12.2 16.0 15.6 17.0 17.0 19.2
1. To describe the given dynamic series
2. To align the levels of dynamic series by the method of least squares
3. To represent graphically the given and obtained results of the aligned dynamic series.
25
The statistical data on the specific weight of financial expenses in the structure of expenditures
of the city budget of the city of K. for health care during the last seven years (%)
Years
The city of K.
А B C D E F G
The specific weight of financial expenses in
the structure of expenditures of the city 17 13 16 10 8 9 6
budget of the city of K. for health care (%)
2. To align the levels of the dynamic series by the method of variable/moving average
The statistical data on number of children born in the region No 5
during the last five years (per 1000 population)
Years
Region No 5
А-year B-year C-year D-year E-year
Indicator of born children (per 1000 population) 12.8 12.2 11.8 10.8 10.7
1. To describe the given dynamic series;
3. To represent graphically the obtained basic indicators of growth rate and absolute increase.
The statistical data on the primary morbidity of viral hepatitis in children
of the district of M. during the last seven years (per 10 thous. children)
А B C D E F G
Indicators of the primary morbid-
ity of viral hepatitis (per 10 thous. 46.0 40.0 50.2 47.0 45.5 48.0 44.8
children)
The statistical data on the level of myopia among schoolchildren in the district of N.
during the last seven years, which was revealed according to
the data of medical examinations (per 100 examined)
А B C D E F G
Indicator of the level of myopia 32.0 36.0 40.3 38.5 42.8 41.0 46.5
26
The statistical data on provision of inpatient beds of the population of the region No 9
during the last five years (per 10 thous. population)
Years А B C D E
Indicators of provision of the population
114.3 122.0 110.4 108.3 94.0
of inpatient beds (per 10 thous. population)
1. To describe the given dynamic series.
3. To represent graphically the obtained basic indicators of absolute increase.
The statistical data on the results of research of flushing that did not meet sanitary and hygienic re-
quirements, at food objects of T. area within 7 years (on 100 analyzes)
Indicators of non-compliance of flushing results at
food objects of sanitary and hygienic requirements 5.0 7.0 7.7 6.5 5.0 7.0 8.6
(per 100 performed analyzes)
The statistical data on the number of children with complicated forms of pneumonia (atelectasis,
destruction) who were treated in the pulmonology department of the hospital
of district No 1 during the last nine years (abs. data)
Years
District No 1
А B C D E F G H І
Number of children with compli-
cated forms of pneumonia (abs. 9 15 26 31 25 18 16 39 26
data)
The statistical data on the indicators of primary disability of the population
of the region No 13 during the last five years (per 10 thous. population)
Years А B C D E
Indicators of primary disability 72.0 70.3 68.4 66.0 64.3
2. To calculate the chain indicators of the dynamic series:
27
a) of absolute increase;
3. To represent graphically the obtained chain indicator of the growth rate.
The statistical data on the number of days of disability among
fish factory workers of the city of М. due to liver, gallbladder and pancreatic
diseases during the last seven years (per 100 employees)
Indicators of days of disability among work-
ers due to diseases of the liver, gallbladder 17.4 19.8 18.3 21.7 19.8 22.1 20.7
and pancreas (per 100 employees)
3. To represent graphically the given and obtained results of the aligned dynamic series
The statistical data on the organization and functioning of daily inpatient departments in the system
of outpatient pediatric care for children in the region No 2 for 7 years (abs. data)
Years
Region No 2
А B C D E F G
Number of daily children's in-
165 206 264 224 300 401 489
patient departments (abs. data)
The statistical data on the level of morbidity of anemia among children of the city of Z. during
the last nine years (per 10 thous. children)
Years
The city of Z.
А B C D E F G H І
Indicators of the level of morbidity
69.7 55.6 63.9 67.5 58.4 54.8 52.5 56.8 50.2
of anemia (per 10 thous. children)
3. To represent graphically the given and obtained results of the aligned dynamic series
The statistical data on the level of mortality due to breast cancer among the female population
of the Eastern region of Ukraine over the past seven years (per 10 thous. women)
Years
Eastern region of Ukraine
А B C D E F G
Indicators of the level of mortality
due to breast cancer among the female 14.5 13.9 14.8 16.5 14.1 15.9 16.7
population (per 10 thous. women)
28

The statistical data on the pathological infestation by helminthiasis of the population
of the city of P., living in the unsewered territory during the last five years
(per 10 thous. surveyed population)
Years А B C D E
Indicators of pathological infestation with helmin-
thiasis of the population, living in the unsewered 165.6 160.0 172.8 183.0 185.0
territory (per 10 thous. surveyed)
*Take the statistical data of previous levels of the series as the basis.
2. To calculate the chain indicators of the dynamic series:
a) the indicator of absolute increase,
b) the indicator of increase rate
d) the absolute value of 1% increase
3. To represent graphically the obtained chain indicator of the increase rate.
VI. RECOMMENDED REFERENCES

Basic references:
1. Epidemiological methods of studying non-infectious diseases: a textbook / V. M. Lekhan, Yu. V.
Voronenko, O. M. Maksymenko and others. K.: Sphere, 2005. P. 49–66.
2. Biostatistics / under the gen. ed. of the corr. memb. of АМS of Ukraine, prof. V.F. Moskalenko.
К.: Book plus, 2009. P. 41–44.
Additional references:
1. Trisha Hrinkhalkh. Fundamentals of evidence-based medicine: translated from English / Ed. I.M.
Denysova, K.I. Saitkulova. 3rd ed. М.: HEOTAR. Media, 2009. P. 142-159.
2. Hlants S. Medical and biological statistics. Translated from English. М.: Practice, 1998. P. 161-
193.
3. Banerzhy A. Medical statistics in plain language: introductory course / translated from English
under ed. of V. P. Leonov. М.: Practical Medicine, 2007. P. 146-196.
4. Evidence-based medicine. Pocket handbook / Karl Khanehan, Douglas Badenoch; translated from
English under ed. of V. I. Petrov. М.: HEOTAR. Media, 2011. P. 48-57.
Electronic resource:
1. U. S. National Library of Medicine – http://www.nlm.nih.gov/
2. V. O. Sukhomlynskyi State Scientific and Pedagogical Library of Ukraine –
http://www.dnpb.gov.ua/
3. Scientific Library of Danylo Halytsky Lviv National Medical University – http://library.me-
duniv.lviv.ua/
4. V. I. Vernadsky National Library of Ukraine – http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/
5. National Scientific Medical Library of Ukraine – http://www.library.gov.ua/
29

Topic 6 Dynamic Series

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Topic of the practical lesson: Dynamic series and basics of prognosis

DYNAMIC SERIES AND BASICS OF PROGNOSIS,

II. PURPOSE OF THE PRACTICAL LESSON:

ІІІ. SPECIFIC EDUCATIONAL GOALS

IV. THEORETICAL STATEMENT OF THE TOPIC

THE ESSENCE OF THE REGULARITIES OF THE PHENOMENON IN DYNAMICS

The purpose of the use of the dynamic series is:

which the levels of the series of dynamics belong.

Time (moment or interval) to which it refers (t)

of the series (y);

Years А-year B-year C-year D-year

Indicators of the level of the general

RULES OF CONSTRUCTION OF DYNAMIC SERIES

CLASSIFICATION OF THE DYNAMIC SERIES

The number of indicators, which represent the levels of the series:

INTERVAL / periodic series of dynamics

of А. for the given periods of time: К-year; L-year; М-year; Н-year).

INSTANTANEOUS SERIES OF DYNAMICS

TECHNIQUES FOR ESTABLISHING TRENDS OR REGULARITIES IN THE CHARAC-

As a result of enlargement of periods we obtain data of the new dynamic series.

B) To determine the arithmetic mean for the levels: y2 = n - 5, n - 4, n – 3; levels y3 = n - 4, n -

METHOD OF AVERAGE ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT HALF OR GRAPHIC

where, t – the serial number of the year or other period of time;

Рівень ряду «у» Рівень вирівняного ряду «у’»

2018 - (3) 2015 - ( - 1)

INDICATORS OF DYNAMIC SERIES

INDICATOR OF ABSOLUTE INCREASE / DECREASE

Basic Аincrb = уі – у-1

Chain Аincrch = уі – уі-1

where, Аincrb – the basic indicator of absolute increase;

Method of calculating the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb)

Аincrb of days of 55.5 days of TD 39.8 days of TD +15.7 days increased TD

C) to calculate the basic indicator of absolute increase (Аincrb) of days of TD of employees of

Method of calculating the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincrch)

B) to calculate the chain indicator of absolute increase (Аincch) of days of TD of employees of

INDICATOR INCREASE / DECLINE RATE

where: Rincr – the indicator of the rate of increase/decline;

where: Rincrb – the indicator of the basic rate of increase;

where, Rincrch – the indicator of the rate of increase;

Method of calculating the basic indicator of the rate of increase/decrease (Rincr)

Method of calculating the chain indicator of the rate of increase (Rincrb)

where, Rgrb – the basic indicator of growth rate;

The method of calculating the basic indicator of growth/decrease rate (Rgrb)

year (per 100 of the nervous system of em-

year in comparison with A -

The difference between indicators of growth/decrease rate and increase/decline rate

INDICATOR OF ABSOLUTE VALUE 1 % INCREASE/DECLINE

where: Аincr – the indicator of absolute increase

In practice, by mathematically transforming the formula for calculating this indicator, it is

GRAPHIC IMAGE OF INDICATORS OF DYNAMIC SERIES

V. CONTROL QUESTIONS FOR CHECKING THE ACQUIRED

VI. METHODICAL MATERIAL

In accordance with the data of the situational task you need:

VI. RECOMMENDED REFERENCES

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