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Singapore | Technology

Internet 21 April 2016

EQUITY RESEARCH GLOBAL


Internet
E-Commerce In ASEAN - Taking Off

Key Takeaway
The ASEAN market is expected to have 350mn internet users by 2018, the
third large block of users after China and India. E-tailing is by far the largest
opportunity for local players and is likely to be a US$30-40bn market by 2020.
There are already six private companies in this space that are estimated to be
valued at over US$1bn, but few in the listed space. We expect that to change
over the next few years.
Large Market, Significant Potential - Expect more listings. The Asean region
represents the third large block of internet users in Asia, after China and India, with 250mn
users currently and expected to rise to 350mn by 2018. The smartphone wave has been
pivotal to rising internet penetration and growth of e-commerce with more than 50% of
traffic and transactions in most segments now coming through mobile. Even though there
are currently only three listed players in the internet/e-commerce space valued above US
$100mn, there are at least six private companies that are reported to be valued over US
$1bn. Funding activity in private markets first picked up in 2013 but has seen an acceleration
in recent quarters with over US$1bn being raised in 2016 till date. We expect more listings
over the next few years. Two markets stand out – Singapore, a developed economy and a
good test market and Indonesia, which is potentially the largest market in the region.

E-tailing US$30-40bn opportunity by 2020; travel, gaming, classifieds the


other key segments. With Search and Social network segments being cornered by
global players like Google, Facebook, Whatsapp and WeChat, e-tailing is by far the biggest
opportunity for local players in the sector. It has also accounted for close to 70% of the fund
flow into the sector. We estimate that the regional e-tailing market, which is currently likely
to be close to US$10bn, will grow to US$30-40bn by 2020. There are a large number of local
players, with Lazada, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Qoo10 and Lelong being some of the largest.
Amongst horizontal players, marketplace is the dominant model while many of the vertical
players do inventory based selling. Cash on delivery and manual banking are dominant
payment methods across most of the region. Logistics companies like SingPost are also
likely to be significant beneficiaries of the e-tailing boom. Travel, classified and gaming are
other key segments with notable local companies such as Grab, Traveloka, PropertyGuru,
JobStreet, Garena and VNG. Indonesia and Vietnam appear to be the best suited markets for
emergence of local players.

Challenges around divergence between countries, regulations and logistics. We


believe the key challenges to e-commerce/internet companies in the region are around
1) divergence in key areas across countries such as stage of development/income levels,
languages, data connectivity infrastructure and extent of regulatory oversight. As a result
unit economics can be different in different countries and it is often necessary to have
significant local presence 2) regulatory hurdles particularly in Indonesia, Philippines and Arya Sen *
Vietnam, which rank low in the ease of doing business and 3) logistics related challenges, Equity Analyst
particularly outside of Singapore and Malaysia. +91 22 4224 6122 asen@jefferies.com
Abhijit Attavar §
Investment Ideas. Most of the listed e-commerce/internet players in the region are fairly Equity Analyst
+65 6551 3960 aattavar@jefferies.com
small - only three, Xurpas (X PM; Gaming company in Philippines), iCarAsia (ICQ AU; Ranjeet Jaiswal *
Automobile classified) and Migme (MIG AU; Social networking app) are over US$100mn Equity Associate
in market-cap but even these are well below US$1bn. Amongst the larger stocks, SingPost +91 22 4224 6114 rjaiswal@jefferies.com
* Jefferies India Private Limited
(SPPOST SP; 33% of revenues are related to e-commerce), Rocket Internet (RKET GR; Stakes in
§ Jefferies Singapore Limited
Lazada, Zalora, Carmudi and ZenRooms, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP; Owns a number MCI (P) 084/07/2015
of classified sites as well as stake in Qoo10) have material exposure to internet/e-commerce
in the region. In Singapore, we expect rising online spend to positively impact logistics
companies and telcos and negatively impact retailers.

Jefferies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 46 to 49
of this report.
Technology
Internet

21 April 2016

Focus Charts

Exhibit 1: Smartphone wave has been pivotal to growth of Exhibit 2: Sharp increase in private market funding for the
e-commerce in the region – over 50% of tx through mobile sector from 2013 – 2016YTD has been particularly strong

Source: Rocket Internet Source: Jefferies, media reports

Exhibit 3: E-tailing by far the largest opportunity for local Exhibit 4: Singapore, the favourite place to base the
players – has accounted for 68% of the funding company; Indonesia, potentially the largest market

Source: Jefferies, media reports Source: Jefferies, media reports

Exhibit 5: The six “unicorns” so far in the region, as per Exhibit 6: Singapore Press Holdings, Rocket Internet,
media reports SingPost some of the large listed market plays

Source: Jefferies, media reports Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg

page 2 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

Investment Ideas In Listed Market

Exhibit 7: Listed companies in internet/e-commerce space in South East Asia


S.No Company B'berg Exchange Segment Description Mkt cap HQ Listing Countries
ticker (US$mn) Yr.
1 Xurpas X PM Philippines Gaming Gaming & Ent. 708 Philippines 2014 Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia
2 iCarAsia ICQ AU Australia Classified Automobile classified 169 Malaysia 2012 Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia
3 Migme MIG AU Australia Social Provides chat, 163 Singapore 2001 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia
Network microblogging etc.
4 JobStreet JOBS MK Malaysia Classified Recruitment classified 63 Malaysia 2005 Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam
5 Ensogo E88 AU Australia E-tailing Deals & discounts 49 Thailand 2013 Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, US
6 Asiatravel AST SP Singapore Travel Online travel agent 48 Singapore 2001 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, UAE
7 MOL group MOLG US Payments Payment Gateway 45 Malaysia 2014 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, India, Australia, NZ
US
8 Asiasoft Corp. AS TB Thailand Gaming Online Gaming 28 Thailand 2008 SEA (6),Cambodia, Burma
9 Netccentric NCL AU Australia Advertising Digital Media 28 Singapore 2015 Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Philippines, Thailand, China, UK
advertisement
10 Rev Asia REV MK Malaysia News & Ent. Owns multiple news & 18 Malaysia 2011 SEA(6)
entertainment website
Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg

Exhibit 8: Listed companies with some exposure to internet/e-commerce space in South East Asia
S.No Company Ticker Exchange Mktcap Nature of exposure to ASEAN e-commerce
(US$bn)
1 Singapore Press Holding SPH SP Singapore 4.7 Acquired SgCarMart and owns many classified sites - ST Jobs, STProperty, STCars, STClassifieds etc. Stake in Qoo10
2 Rocket Internet RKET GR Germany 4.6 Investment in companies such as Lazada, Zalora, Foodpanda, Carmudi and Zen Rooms in South East Asia
3 Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ Indonesia 4.1 Invested US$500mn in own e-commerce venture
4 Singpost SPOST SP Singapore 2.5 Launched "SP ecommerce" as a full service end-to-end e-commerce logistic solution provider
5 Mapletree Logistics MLT SP Singapore 1.9 Owns warehouses across Asia including 3 countries of SEA (SG, MA, VI)
6 GD Express GDX MK Malaysia 0.6 Provides Logistic Services in Malaysia and Singapore. Plans to grow in e-commerce Logistics
7 Thegiodidong MWG VN Vietnam 0.5 Mobile retail chain operator with online channel
8 Pos Malaysia POSM MK Malaysia 0.4 Launched e-Commerce Hub in Malaysia for providing logistic services to e-commerce companies
9 WHA Warehouse WHAPF TB Thailand 0.3 Owns various warehouse in ASEAN countries
Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg

Exhibit 9: Impact of rising online spend across sectors in Singapore


Company B’berg ticker Price (SGD) JEF Rating MCap (US$m) Impact Impact of E-commerce on industry/ sector
Data Center REITs Increased demand for data center space
Keppel DC REIT KDCREIT SP 1.09 NC 718 +ve

Retail Malls -ve Higher online share of retail spend could adversely affect demand for store-fronts
Mapletree Commercial Trust MCT SP 1.47 Hold 2,336
CapitaMall Trust CT SP 2.12 NC 5,603
Fraser Centerpoint Trust FCT SP 2.02 NC 1,370

Industrial/ Logistics Space +ve Demand for modern warehousing/logistics assets could rise
AREIT AREIT SP 2.50 Buy 4,973
Mapletree Logistics MLT SP 1.03 Buy 1,904
Aims AMP AAREIT SP 1.35 Hold 640

Logistics and distribution +ve Warehousing and last-mile delivery capability will become important
Singapore Post SPOST SP 1.65 NC 2,500

Mass-market retailing -ve Increased competition from online marts


Shen Siong SSG SP 0.87 NC 970

Telcos +ve More data-traffic, mobile wallets could get more popular
Singtel ST SP 3.95 Buy 47,000
Starhub STH SP 3.34 Underperform 4,311
M1 M1 SP 2.48 Hold 1,720
Source: Jefferies estimates, Bloomberg

page 3 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

Table of Contents
FOCUS CHARTS ............................................................................................................................ 2
INVESTMENT IDEAS IN LISTED MARKET ....................................................................................... 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ 5
E-COMMERCE IN ASEAN – TAKING OFF........................................................................................ 6
ASEAN – Over 250mn internet users, likely to rise to 350mn by 2018 ......................................... 6
Smartphone wave a key driver of growth of internet adoption and e-commerce ....................... 7
Funding activity in private markets has picked up since 2013, expect strong 2016 ..................... 9
Few listed players for now – expect more listings going forward ............................................... 10
Singapore and Indonesian markets stand out ............................................................................ 12
E-TAILING THE BIG OPPORTUNITY; TRAVEL, CLASSIFIED, GAMING OTHER KEY SEGMENTS ......... 15
Search, Social network, messaging dominated by the global players ......................................... 15
E-tailing the big opportunity – potentially a US$30-40bn market by 2020 ................................. 16
Travel, classified, entertainment the other key segments with local players ............................. 19
CHALLENGES AROUND DIVERGENCE BETWEEN COUNTRIES ON REGULATIONS AND LOGISTICS . 22
1. Divergence across countries a key challenge .......................................................................... 22
2. Regulatory hurdles, particularly in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam ................................. 23
3. Logistics related challenges .................................................................................................... 23
COMPANY PROFILES.................................................................................................................. 25
Garena – Asean’s Budding Tencent ............................................................................................ 26
Grab - The Local Challenge to Uber ............................................................................................ 30
PropertyGuru – Focus and localisation ....................................................................................... 33
Lazada – Alibaba’s Proxy in South East Asia................................................................................ 37
Tokopedia – Indonesia’s Taobao ................................................................................................ 38
SingPost – E-commerce Logistics Driving Growth ....................................................................... 39
VNG – Leading Internet Company in Vietnam ............................................................................ 40
APPENDIX-1: PRIVATE MARKET FUNDING IN ASEAN INTERNET/E-COMMERCE .......................... 41
APPENDIX-2: SINGAPORE START-UP ECOSYSTEM ...................................................................... 43

page 4 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

Executive Summary
E-commerce in ASEAN – Taking Off
ASEAN region is expected to have The ASEAN region represents the third large block of internet users in Asia, after China and
350mn internet users by 2018 – few India, with 250mn users currently and expected to rise to 350mn by 2018. The
large listed players now but there are smartphone wave has been pivotal to rising internet penetration and growth of e-
six “unicorns” in the private market commerce in the region with more than 50% of traffic and transactions in most segments
– we expect more listings going now taking place through the mobile platform. Even though there are currently only three
forward listed players in the internet/e-commerce space valued above US$100mn, there are at
least six private companies reported to be valued over US$1bn. Funding activity in private
markets first picked up in 2013 but has seen an acceleration in recent quarters with over
US$1bn being raised in 2016 till date. We expect more listings over the next few years.
Two markets stand out – Singapore which is a developed economy and a good test
market for ideas and Indonesia which is potentially the largest market in the region.

E-tailing US$30-40bn opportunity by 2020; travel,


gaming, classifieds the other key segments
E-tailing is the largest opportunity for With Search and Social network segments being cornered by global players like Google,
local players and could be a US$30- Facebook, Whatsapp and WeChat, e-tailing is by far the biggest opportunity for local
40bn market by 2020; Travel, players in the sector. It has also accounted for close to 70% of the fund flow into the
gaming, classified and gaming the sector. We estimate that the regional e-tailing market which is currently likely to be close
other segments with local players to US$10bn will grow to US$30-40bn by 2020. There are a large number of local players
with Lazada, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Qoo10 and Lelong being some of the largest.
Amongst horizontal players, marketplace is the dominant model while many of the
vertical players do inventory based selling. Cash on delivery and manual banking are
dominant payment methods across most of the region. Logistics companies like SingPost
are also likely to be significant beneficiaries of the e-tailing boom. Travel, classified and
gaming are other key segments with notable local companies such as Grab, Traveloka,
PropertyGuru, JobStreet, Garena and VNG. Indonesia and Vietnam appear to be the best
suited markets for the emergence of local players.

Challenges around divergence between countries,


regulations and logistics
Key challenges are around We believe the key challenges to e-commerce/internet companies in the region are
divergence across Asean countries, in around 1) divergence in key areas across countries such as stage of development/income
languages, regulatory hurdles and levels, languages, data connectivity infrastructure and extent of regulatory oversight. As a
logistic issues result unit economics can be different in different countries and it is often necessary to
have a significant local presence 2) regulatory hurdles particularly in Indonesia,
Philippines and Vietnam which rank low in the ease of doing business and 3) logistics
related challenges, particularly outside of Singapore and Malaysia

Investment Ideas in listed market


Xurpas, ICarAsia and Migme are Most of the listed e-commerce/internet players in the region are fairly small - only three,
direct listed market plays but all well Xurpas (X PM – Gaming company in Philippines), iCarAsia (ICQ AU – Automobile
below US$1bn in market-cap; classified) and Migme (MIG AU – Social networking app) are over US$100mn in market-
SingPost, Rocket Internet and cap but even these are well below US$1bn. Amongst the larger stocks, SingPost (SPPOST
Singapore Press Holdings are some SP - 33% of revenues are related to e-commerce), Rocket Internet (RKET GR – Stakes in
of the larger listed market plays with Lazada, Zalora, Carmudi and ZenRooms, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP – Owns a
exposure to this theme number of classified sites as well as stake in Qoo10) have material exposure to internet/e-
commerce in the region. In Singapore, we expect rising online spend to positively impact
logistics companies and telcos and negatively impact retailers.

page 5 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


Technology
Internet

21 April 2016

E-commerce in ASEAN – Taking Off


ASEAN region is expected to have The ASEAN region represents the third large block of internet users in Asia, after China and
350mn internet users by 2018 – few India, with 250mn users currently and expected to rise to 350mn by 2018. The
large listed players now but there are smartphone wave has been pivotal to rising internet penetration and growth of e-
six “unicorns” in the private market commerce in the region with more than 50% of traffic and transactions in most segments
– we expect more listings going now taking place through the mobile platform. Even though there are currently only three
forward listed players in the internet/e-commerce space valued above US$100mn, there are at
least six private companies reported to be valued over US$1bn. Funding activity in private
markets first picked up in 2013 but has seen a sharp acceleration in recent quarters with
over US$1bn being raised in 2016 till date. We expect more listings over the next few
years. Two markets stand out – Singapore a developed economy and a good test market
for ideas and Indonesia which is potentially the largest market in the region.

ASEAN – Over 250mn internet users, likely to rise


to 350mn by 2018
ASEAN – 250mn internet users After China and India, the ASEAN region represents the next large opportunity for the
currently, expected to rise to 350mn growth of e-commerce and internet companies in Asia. With a combined population of
by 2018 630mn (which would put it at #3 in global population rank after China and India) and
combined nominal GDP of US$2.5tn (#5 in global GDP rank after EU, US, China and
Japan), the region has significant potential. In fact the average GDP per capita of the
ASEAN region at US$4k is 2.5x that of India at US$1.6k. The region is also more urbanized
with 47% of the population living in urban centres (vs. 31% for India) with nearly 45mn
people spread across the top 6 cities alone (which also rank within the top 50 cities by
population, globally).

Exhibit 10: ASEAN region


Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Myanmar Laos Brunei ASEAN India China
Population (mn) 5.5 258.7 30.9 65.3 103.0 91.7 15.6 54.4 6.5 0.4 632 1,286 1,376
Population rank 113 4 45 20 12 14 71 26 107 171 3 2 1
GDP per capita (US$) 56,286 3,514 10,829 5,560 2,843 2,052 1,084 1,204 1,707 40,776 3,971 1,582 7,594
GDP (US$bn) 308 889 327 405 285 171 15 64 11 16 2,491 2,067 10,360
Urbanization (%) 100% 51% 73% 54% 49% 31% 21% 34% 38% 77% 47% 31% 55%
Internet penetration (%) 82% 34% 68% 56% 46% 50% 32% 13% 14% 74% 41% 28% 49%
Internet users (mn) 5 88 21 37 47 46 5 7 1 0.3 257 360 674
Active social media users (%) 65% 30% 60% 55% 45% 35% n/a n/a n/a n/a 34% 10% 50%
Source: Jefferies, World Bank

Exhibit 11: Nearly 45mn people live in the top 6 cities of the region
S.No City Country Population (mn) Global population rank
1 Jakarta Indonesia 10.1 14
2 Bangkok Thailand 8.3 24
3 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 8.2 25
4 Hanoi Vietnam 7.2 34
5 Singapore Singapore 5.5 47
6 Yangon Myanmar 5.2 49
Total n/a 44.6 n/a
Source: Jefferies, UN reports
We estimate the total number of internet users in the region to be over 250mn but at 41%
internet penetration, there is significant scope for growth in the user base itself. This is
particularly true of Indonesia which despite contributing the most number of users in
absolute terms has internet penetration of only 34%. In fact even the existing base is a
result of sharp acceleration in internet penetration in the last 2 years from 20-25% in
2011-13 to over 40% currently, helped undoubtedly by rising smartphone penetration.

We believe the number of internet users is likely to increase to over 350mn over the next
3-4 years implying an internet penetration of 55%. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and
Myanmar are likely to be some of the biggest contributors to the rise in user base.

page 6 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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Exhibit 12: Number of internet users (mn) Exhibit 13: Internet penetration across countries

Source: Jefferies estimates, media reports Source: Jefferies estimates, media reports

Exhibit 14: Internet penetration in ASEAN region has doubled in the last 5
years with acceleration in the last 2 years

Source: Jefferies, media reports

Smartphone wave a key driver of growth of


internet adoption and e-commerce
Smartphone wave has been pivotal We believe rising smartphone sales and penetration are a key driver of acceleration in
to internet adoption and growth of internet penetration and growth of e-commerce in the region. With broadband
e-commerce in the region – over penetration below 10% in most countries, mobile internet is critical for internet usage. We
50% of traffic and transactions now understand that in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, over 50% of web traffic is
happening over mobile already through mobiles. This is expected to rise further as smartphone penetration rises
from the current 35-45% in most of these countries. Poor data speed is an impediment
but there has been a marked improvement in internet connectivity over the last 12
months, particularly in Indonesia where average data speeds are reported to have
doubled.

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Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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Exhibit 15: Smartphone sales in region has picked up sharply over last 3 years

Source: Jefferies estimates, IDC

Exhibit 16: Broadband penetration is low particularly in Exhibit 17: Already 50% or more of web traffic is coming
Indonesia through mobiles in most countries

Source: Jefferies, ITU Source: Jefferies estimates, media reports

Exhibit 18: Internet speeds in the region are still poor with Exhibit 19: However there has been a marked improvement
the exception of Singapore & Thailand in data speeds particularly in Indonesia over the last year

Source: Jefferies, Akamai’s Fourth Quarter, 2015 State of the Source: Jefferies, Akamai’s Fourth Quarter, 2015 State of the
Internet Report: https://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet. Internet Report: https://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet.

page 8 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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The sharp acceleration in mobile internet and commerce is perhaps best evident in the
chart below that shows the proportion of Lazada’s GMV through mobile vs. desktop: from
less than 20% in March, 2014, sales though mobile platform has increased to close to
60% by September, 2015 i.e. in just 18 months.

Exhibit 20: 60% of Lazada’s sales are now through mobile platform, up from
20% only 2 years back

Source: Jefferies, Rocket Internet

Funding activity in private markets has picked up


since 2013, expect strong 2016
Private market funding in the space Rocket Internet’s investments in Foodpanda (in March, 2012), Lazada (in November,
has picked up since 2013; over 2012) and Zalora (in May 2013) were an inflection point for PE/VC fund flow into the
US$1bn raised already in 2016 ASEAN internet/e-commerce sector in our view. Since then fund flow into the sector has
increased steadily with nearly US$1.6bn of PE/VC money being raised in 2015 and almost
US$3.5bn in the last 3 years. Yet, this is significantly lower than the US$10bn+ of PE/VC
money raised by Indian internet companies in the same period. As a result, we believe
these are still early days for e-commerce in the region. On the other hand, this may also
imply that valuations are still relatively reasonable in the region and growth has been
driven to a much lesser extent by discounting and freebies than has been the case in India.

Exhibit 21: PE/VC funding into the space has picked up Exhibit 22: There have been over 100 deals since 2011 of
sharply since 2013 over US$2.5mn

Note: Only deals above US$2.5mn considered; Source: Jefferies, Note: Only deals above US$2.5mn considered; Source: Jefferies,
media reports media reports

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Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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Exhibit 23: Companies that have raised over US$50mn since 2011
S.No Company Segment Sub-segment Amt raised (US$mn) Founded in Investors
1 Lazada E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 1,186 2,012 Alibaba, Rocket Internet, Temasek, Kinnevik, Tengelmann, Tesco, Summit Partners
2 Grab Travel Cab booking 680 2,011 SoftBank, Tiger Global, China Investment Corp, Coatue
3 Matahari Mall E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 500 2,015 Lippo Group
4 SingPost E-com Logistics E-commerce logistics 457 n/a Alibaba
5 Tokopedia E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 248 2,009 Softbank
6 Zalora E-tailing Fashion e-tailing 212 2,012 Rocket Internet, Tengelmann Ventures, Kinnevik, Summit Partners, Access Industries
7 Garena Gaming Gaming, e-tailing 170 2,008 Khazanah Nasional Berhad
8 PropertyGuru Classified Real estate classified 129 2,007 Emtek, Square Peg Capital, TPG
9 Qoo10 E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 82 2,010 Singapore Press Holdings, eBay,Saban Capital Group, Brookside Capital, Oak Investment
10 iflix Entertainment Online video-on-demand service 75 2,014 Catcha Group, Emtek, Sky
11 iCarsClub Travel P2P car sharing 70 2,012 Sequoia Capital, IDG
12 Elevenia E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 68 2,014 SK Planet, XL Axiata
13 Reebonz E-tailing Fashion e-tailing 64 2,009 GGV Capital, Intel Capital, MediaCorp Singapore, Matrix Capital, Infocomm Investments
14 RedMart E-tailing Online grocery 55 2,011 Garena, Softbank, Visionnaire Ventures, Eduardo Saverin
15 vinEcom E-tailing Horizontal e-tailing 50 2,014 Vingroup
Source: Jefferies, media reports

Exhibit 24: Indian internet/e-commerce cos have raised over US$10bn in the
last 3 years

Source: Jefferies, media reports


Amongst the global PE/VC firms, companies such as Softbank, Tiger, Sequoia, Temasek,
Kinnevik and Intel Capital have invested in the region in addition to Rocket. Grab and e-
tailing companies such as Lazada, Tokopedia, Zalora seem to be some of the favourites.
The most obvious exceptions to the list of investors in the internet/e-commerce space in
the region include Naspers, DST Global and KPCB.

Exhibit 25: Many global PE/VC firms are present in the region; Naspers, DST Global, KPCB amongst those that do not
have exposure to the region
S.No PE/VC investor Headquarters Key investments in ASEAN region Global investments in the sector
1 Rocket Internet Germany Lazada, Zalora, Foodpanda, Carmudi, ZenRooms Dafiti, Jabong, Lamoda, Foodpanda
2 Softbank Japan Grab, Tokopedia, Redmart Alibaba, Sina, Didi Kuaidi, Yahoo Japan, SoFi, Snapdeal, Ola
3 Sequoia Capital US Carousell, AdNear, IcarsClub Apple, Google, Youtube, Yahoo, Whatsapp
4 Tiger Global US Grab, Wego eLong, Flipkart, Zynga, Airbnb, Ola, Nextdoor
5 Tengelmann Ventures Germany Lazada, Zalora, Carmudi Lamudi, Delivery Hero, Lamoda, Linio
6 Kinnevik Sweden Lazada, Zalora Millicom, Zalando
7 Temasek Singapore Lazada Paypal, Alibaba, Airbnb, Didi Kuaidi
8 Intel Capital US Reebonz Snapdeal, WebRadar, iZettle, Skyport Systems
Source: Jefferies, media reports

Few listed players for now – expect more listings


going forward
Listed plays with exposure to internet/e-commerce
Very few direct plays in the listed There are few sizeable listed players in the internet/e-commerce space in the region
market, none above US$1bn market- currently. While we could find 10 such companies – Xurpas, iCarAsia, Migme, JobStreet,
cap; SingPost, Rocket Internet, Ensogo, Asiatravel, MOL group, Asiasoft Corporation, Netccentric and Rev Asia – only 3
Singapore Press Holdings are large are over US$100mn in market-cap. The total market-cap of all ten is only US$1.3bn. In
listed companies having some addition to these, one can play the sector indirectly through investment companies such
exposure to the space as Rocket Internet and logistics companies such as Singpost.

page 10 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

Exhibit 26: Listed companies in internet/e-commerce space in South East Asia


S.No Company B'berg Exchange Segment Description Mkt cap HQ Listing Countries
ticker (US$mn) Yr.
1 Xurpas X PM Philippines Gaming Gaming & Ent. 708 Philippines 2014 Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia
2 iCarAsia ICQ AU Australia Classified Automobile classified 169 Malaysia 2012 Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia
3 Migme MIG AU Australia Social Provides chat, 163 Singapore 2001 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia
Network microblogging etc.
4 JobStreet JOBS MK Malaysia Classified Recruitment classified 63 Malaysia 2005 Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam
5 Ensogo E88 AU Australia E-tailing Deals & discounts 49 Thailand 2013 Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, US
6 Asiatravel AST SP Singapore Travel Online travel agent 48 Singapore 2001 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, UAE
7 MOL group MOLG US Payments Payment Gateway 45 Malaysia 2014 Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, India, Australia, NZ
US
8 Asiasoft Corp. AS TB Thailand Gaming Online Gaming 28 Thailand 2008 SEA (6),Cambodia, Burma
9 Netccentric NCL AU Australia Advertising Digital Media 28 Singapore 2015 Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Philippines, Thailand, China, UK
advertisement
10 Rev Asia REV MK Malaysia News & Ent. Owns multiple news & 18 Malaysia 2011 SEA(6)
entertainment website
Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg

Exhibit 27: Listed companies with some exposure to internet/e-commerce space in South East Asia
S.No Company Ticker Exchange Mktcap Nature of exposure to ASEAN e-commerce
(US$bn)
1 Singapore Press Holding SPH SP Singapore 4.7 Acquired SgCarMart and owns many classified sites - ST Jobs, STProperty, STCars, STClassifieds etc. Stake in Qoo10
2 Rocket Internet RKET GR Germany 4.6 Investment in companies such as Lazada, Zalora, Foodpanda, Carmudi and Zen Rooms in South East Asia
3 Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ Indonesia 4.1 Invested US$500mn in own e-commerce venture
4 Singpost SPOST SP Singapore 2.5 Launched "SP ecommerce" as a full service end-to-end e-commerce logistic solution provider
5 Mapletree Logistics MLT SP Singapore 1.9 Owns warehouses across Asia including 3 countries of SEA (SG, MA, VI)
6 GD Express GDX MK Malaysia 0.6 Provides Logistic Services in Malaysia and Singapore. Plans to grow in e-commerce Logistics
7 Thegiodidong MWG VN Vietnam 0.5 Mobile retail chain operator with online channel
8 Pos Malaysia POSM MK Malaysia 0.4 Launched e-Commerce Hub ub Malaysia for providing logistic services to e-commerce companies
9 WHA Warehouse WHAPF TB Thailand 0.3 Owns various warehouse in ASEAN countries
Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg
Online spend, impact on Singapore
Singapore’s online spend is estimated to be around US$2.4bn (~8% of total retail spend).
Expect positive impact on data Proportion of online spending in SG still has room to grow considering developed
centre and logistics companies and markets like US, UK currently average around 15%. This strong growth in online spend
negative impact on retailers could impact different sectors of the Singapore economy either positively or negatively.
The table below is a quick summary of how rising online spend could affect diverse
sectors of the SG economy. From a broad sector perspective, E-commerce will have a
positive impact on demand for 1) data centres, 2) last mile logistics, warehousing
operations, and 4) telcos due to increased data traffic. On the other hand, we expect a
negative impact on retail operations both mass-market and as well specialised formats like
shopping malls etc.

Exhibit 28: Impact of rising online spend across sectors in Singapore


Company B’berg ticker Price (SGD) JEF Rating MCap (US$m) Impact Impact of E-commerce on industry/ sector
Data Center REITs Increased demand for data center space
Keppel DC REIT KDCREIT SP 1.09 NC 718 +ve

Retail Malls -ve Higher online share of retail spend could adversely affect demand for store-fronts
Mapletree Commercial Trust MCT SP 1.47 Hold 2,336
CapitaMall Trust CT SP 2.12 NC 5,603
Fraser Centerpoint Trust FCT SP 2.02 NC 1,370

Industrial/ Logistics Space +ve Demand for modern warehousing/logistics assets could rise
AREIT AREIT SP 2.50 Buy 4,973
Mapletree Logistics MLT SP 1.03 Buy 1,904
Aims AMP AAREIT SP 1.35 Hold 640

Logistics and distribution +ve Warehousing and last-mile delivery capability will become important
Singapore Post SPOST SP 1.65 NC 2,500

Mass-market retailing -ve Increased competition from online marts


Shen Siong SSG SP 0.87 NC 970

Telcos +ve More data-traffic, mobile wallets could get more popular
Singtel ST SP 3.95 Buy 47,000
Starhub STH SP 3.34 Underperform 4,311
M1 M1 SP 2.48 Hold 1,720
Source: Jefferies estimates, Bloomberg

page 11 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

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Six few private market “unicorns”


Based on media reports, there are at There are quite a few large companies in the private market though. In fact based on
least six companies that have been media reports of valuations in private funding rounds there are already six “unicorns” or
valued at US$1bn or more in private companies valued above US$1bn in the region viz. Garena, Grab, Lazada, VNG group,
funding rounds – Garena, Lazada, Traveloka and Tokopedia. In addition we expect PropertyGuru, Iproperty and Zalora to be
Grab lead the way valued at over US$500mn. This would take the total private market valuation to over
US$10bn.

Exhibit 29: The “unicorns” - Six internet companies from the region are
estimated to have achieved valuation of over US$1bn in private rounds

Source: Jefferies, Media reports


We expect more listings in Singapore We expect more listings in the Singapore market over the next 2-3 years as existing
over the next 2-3 years investors look for exits or increasing funding requirements forces a shift to public markets.

Singapore and Indonesian markets stand out


Singapore being a developed Singapore – developed economy with many advantages. Singapore clearly stands
economy is a good test market for out amongst the ASEAN countries. It is a developed economy with very high spending
new ideas; companies also find other power (per capital GDP of US$56k), good internet connectivity and broadband
advantages of basing their HQ in infrastructure (fixed broadband penetration is over 73%, whilst smartphone penetration
Singapore, thanks to a strong start- at over 90%), mature payment infrastructure (the average Singaporean holds over 2.7
up eco-system credit cards vs. 2.2 for US) and relatively few logistical, regulatory and other challenges.
This makes it a good test/pilot market for ideas that can then be scaled up into the region.
Moreover, many companies prefer to base their headquarters out of Singapore due to
many advantages such as easier access to funding, availability of talent pool, lower tax
rates and active support from the Singapore government. (See Appendix 2 on
Singapore Start-up Eco system for more details)

Exhibit 30: Singapore headquartered companies dominate in fund flows into


the sector, followed by Indonesia

Source: Jefferies, Media reports

page 12 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

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Exhibit 31: 10 of the 15 companies that have raised US$50mn are headquartered in Singapore, 3 in Indonesia
S.No Company Segment Headquarter Founded in Countries of operation
1 Lazada E-tailing Singapore Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam
2 Grab Travel Singapore Malaysia Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam
3 Matahari Mall E-tailing Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
4 SingPost E-com logistics Singapore Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, HK, India, Australia
5 Zalora E-tailing Singapore Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Brunei
6 PropertyGuru Classified Singapore Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
7 Garena Gaming Singapore Singapore Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia
8 Tokopedia E-tailing Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
9 Qoo10 E-tailing Singapore Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Japan
10 iflix Entertainment Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand
11 iCarsClub Travel Singapore Singapore Singapore
12 Elevenia E-tailing Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
13 Reebonz E-tailing Singapore Singapore Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Australia and South Korea
14 RedMart E-tailing Singapore Singapore Singapore
15 vinEcom E-tailing Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Source: Jefferies, company data
Indonesia – potentially the largest market. While Indonesia lags countries like
Indonesia is potentially the largest
Malaysia and Thailand in spending power and ease of doing business, we believe it still
e-commerce market in the region
stands out in the region as potentially its largest market. Its population of 260mn ranks it
with estimated 150mn internet users
4th globally after China, India and US. As a result, despite relatively low internet
by 2020
penetration of 34%, it already accounts for nearly 90mn of the 250mn internet users in
the region. As internet penetration rises to over 60% over the next 4-5 years, Indonesia
alone could account for close to 150mn internet users. The fact that companies
headquartered in Indonesia have seen the most PE/VC fund flow in the region after
Singapore, also points towards its significance in the region.

Exhibit 32: Singapore ranks #1 in the ease of doing business globally;


Malaysia is #18 and Thailand is #49; others rank close to 100

Source: Jefferies, World Bank


Malaysia, Thailand - easier markets to scale up after Singapore. Malaysia and
Thailand rank after Singapore on many key metrics like GDP per capita, urbanization,
internet penetration and active e-commerce and social media users. Ease of doing
business and infrastructure are also better here than in the rest of the region. As a result, in
our conversations with various e-commerce players these ranked after Singapore as the
easier markets to scale up in the region.
Philippines, Vietnam – many operational challenges. Philippines and Vietnam,
each with a population of close to 100mn, rank after Indonesia in terms of long-term
opportunity size. However spending power is relatively low and operational challenges
relatively high due to logistics and infrastructure issues including poor mobile
connectivity/data speeds. Philippines with a large base of social media users and
popularity of English is clearly the more attractive market of the two.
Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei – frontier markets. In addition to the six
markets discussed above, the ASEAN region includes smaller markets such as Cambodia,
Laos and Brunei with a combined population of 22mn. Myanmar with a population of
55mn is relatively larger but is still extremely under-developed after many years of
economic exclusion that has only just ended. As a result, we have excluded these markets
from the scope of this report.

page 13 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

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21 April 2016

E-tailing the big opportunity; Travel,


classified, gaming other key segments
E-tailing is the largest opportunity for With Search and Social network segments being cornered by global players like Google,
local players and could be a US$30- Facebook, Whatsapp and WeChat, e-tailing is by far the biggest opportunity for local
40bn market by 2020; Travel, players in the sector. It has also accounted for close to 70% of the fund flow into the
gaming, classified and gaming the sector. We estimate that the regional e-tailing market which is currently likely to be close
other segments with local players to US$10bn will grow to US$30-40bn by 2020. There are a large number of local players
with Lazada, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Qoo10 and Lelong being some of the largest.
Amongst horizontal players, marketplace is the dominant model while many of the
vertical players do inventory based selling. Cash on delivery and manual banking are
dominant payment methods across most of the region. Logistics companies like SingPost
are also likely to be significant beneficiaries of the e-tailing boom. Travel, classified and
gaming are other key segments with notable local companies such as Grab, Traveloka,
PropertyGuru, JobStreet, Garena and VNG. Indonesia and Vietnam appear to be best
suited for the emergence of local players.

Search, Social network, messaging dominated by


the global players
Search and Social network is Globally, the largest internet companies by market-cap are predominantly those
dominated by global players like operating in Search, Social network or e-tailing as shown in the chart below. In South East
Google, Facebook, Whatsapp, Asia, the search and social network segments are dominated by global players like
WeChat Google, Facebook, Yahoo, Msn and Bing. Even messaging apps are all primarily owned by
global players such as Whatsapp, Facebook messenger (both owned by Facebook),
WeChat (owned by Tencent group of China), Line, Blackberry Messenger and Viber
(owned by Naver Corp of South Korea, Blackberry Limited of Canada and Rakuten of
Japan respectively).

Exhibit 33: The top internet cos by market-cap globally are mostly in Search,
Social network and e-tailing

Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg

Exhibit 34: Google, Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo, Msn, Bing feature amongst top 10 sites in most of the SE Asian countries
Rank Singapore Segment Indonesia Segment Malaysia Segment Thailand Segment Philippines Segment Vietnam Segment
1 Google Search Google Search Google Search Google Search Facebook Social network Coc coc Search
2 Youtube Entertainment Facebook Social Network Youtube Entertainment Youtube Entertainment Youtube Entertainment Google Search
3 Facebook Social network Youtube Entertainment Facebook Social network Facebook Social network Google Search Facebook Social Network
4 Yahoo Search Detik News Yahoo Search Pantip Social network Yahoo Search Youtube Entertainment
5 Wikipedia Information Yahoo Search Blogspot Entertainment Blogspot Entertainment abs-cbn News webtretho Entertainment
6 Amazon.com E-tailing Tribunews News Msn Search Yahoo Search Inquirer News Zing News
7 Bing Search Liputan6 News Maybank Finance Bing Search GMA N/w News daikynguyen News
8 Linkedin Social network Kaskus Social network Wikipedia Information Amazon.com E-tailing Msn Search vnexpress News
9 Msn Search Kapanlagi Entertainment Lazada E-tailing Msn Search Wikipedia Information nhadatso Classified
10 qoo10.sg E-tailing Kompas News Bing Search Ebay E-tailing Twitter Social network 24h News
Source: Jefferies, Alexa

page 14 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

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21 April 2016

Exhibit 35: Top messaging/chat apps across the South East Asian countries
Rank Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam
1 Whatsapp Blackberry messenger Whatsapp Line Facebook messenger Zalo
2 Facebook messenger Whatsapp Facebook messenger Facebook messenger Viber Facebook messenger
3 WeChat Facebook messenger/Line WeChat Whatsapp/Wechat Line Viber
Source: Jefferies, Media reports

Exhibit 36: Most top messaging/chat apps owned by global corporates; VNG’s
Zalo is the only local player
S.No Messaging app Owning group Country of origin
1 Whatsapp Facebook US
2 Facebook messenger Facebook US
3 WeChat Tencent Group China
4 Line Naver Corp South Korea
5 Blackberry messenger Blackberry Limited Canada
6 Viber Rakuten Japan
7 Zalo VNG Vietnam
Source: Jefferies, company data
Coc coc, Zalo, Kaskus, Pantip are There are a few local players though – Coc coc is a browser cum search engine that
some of the local players in this specializes in search in Vietnamese – the company raised US$14mn of funding in
space February, 2015 and often ranks above Google as the #1 site in Vietnam. Zalo, a messaging
service launched by the VNG group in 2012 ranks as the top messaging app in Vietnam.
The VNG group also launched a social network site Zine Me in 2009. Pantip of Thailand
and Kaskus of Indonesia are discussion forums that have attracted a large local
community.

Exhibit 37: Key local companies in search, social network and messaging
S.No Company Founded in HQ Countries of Description Investors Funds raised Founders/CEO
operation (US$mn)
1 Coc coc 2010 Vietnam Vietnam Search Engine customized for Vietnamese Hubert Burda Media 14 Nguyen Binh, Le Thanh
2 Zing Me & Zalo (VNG group) 2004 Vietnam Vietnam Gaming, social n/w, messaging CyberAgent Ventures n/a Hong Minh le & Bryan Pelz
3 Pantip 1997 Thailand Thailand Discussion forum n/a n/a Wanchat Padungrat
4 Kaskus 1999 Indonesia Indonesia Discussion forum and classified GDP Ventures n/a Andrew Darwis
Source: Jefferies, company data

E-tailing the big opportunity – potentially a US$30-


40bn market by 2020
E-tailing – potentially a US$30-40bn market by 2020
We estimate that e-tailing will be a E-tailing is by far the largest opportunity for local companies in our view. Based on the
US$30-40bn market in the region by retail market of the respective countries, we estimate that e-tailing could be a US$30-40bn
2020 vs. US$10bn currently market (in GMV terms) in the six major South East Asian countries by 2020. This would
imply ~3.5-4.5% of the total retail sales being transacted online, which is in line with other
emerging markets and significantly lower than what has been the case in China. The large
opportunity in e-tailing is also reflected in the fund flow pattern - e-tailing (including e-
commerce logistics) companies have absorbed close to 70% of investments into
internet/e-commerce sector in the region.

Exhibit 38: We estimate the e-tailing market in the region to grow to US$30-40bn by 2020 from US$10bn currently
2,015 2,020 Scenario 1 (Base case) Scenario 2 (Bear case) Scenario 3 (Bull case)
Country Retail market E-tailing market % of retail Retail market E-tailing market % of retail Cagr E-tailing market % of retail E-tailing market % of retail
size (US$bn) (US$bn) market size (US$bn) (US$bn) market (%) (US$bn) market (US$bn) market
Indonesia 320 3.0 0.9 428 12.8 3.0 34 10.7 2.5 15.0 3.5
Singapore 30 2.4 8.0 33 6.6 20.0 23 6.0 18.0 7.3 22.0
Malaysia 70 1.4 2.0 89 4.5 5.0 26 4.0 4.5 5.4 6.0
Thailand 100 1.5 1.5 116 4.6 4.0 25 4.1 3.5 5.8 5.0
Philippines 80 0.6 0.8 107 3.2 3.0 38 2.7 2.5 3.7 3.5
Vietnam 70 0.6 0.8 94 2.8 3.0 38 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.5
Total 670 9.5 1.4 867 34.6 4.0 29 29.8 3.4 40.5 4.7
Total ex SG 640 7.1 1.1 834 28.0 3.4 32 23.8 2.9 33.2 4.0
Source: Jefferies estimates

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Exhibit 39: E-tailing (including logistics) has accounted for over US$3bn of
E-tailing companies have attracted the US$4.5bn funds flowing into internet/e-commerce sector since 2011
nearly 70% of the private market
funding into the sector

Source: Jefferies, Media reports


Lazada, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Local companies like Lazada, Tokopedia, Bukalapak and Qoo10 (see table below) have
Qoo10 some of the top local taken the early leadership in the e-tailing market in the region. The near absence of
companies Amazon from the region has been a significant positive from a competitive landscape
point of view. Ebay and Alibaba (through Taobao and Aliexpress) are the key global
players in the region. However Alibaba’s recent investment of US$1bn into Lazada for a
controlling stake in the company seems to suggest that Lazada will be key to the former’s
growth plans in the region going forward.

Exhibit 40: Top e-tailing sites by traffic in the different countries


Rank Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam
1 Qoo10 Bukalapak Lazada Ebay Lazada Lazada
2 Taobao Tokopedia Lelong Lazada Metrodeal Thegiodidong
3 Ebay Lazada Taobao Aliexpress Ebay Sendo
4 Lazada Elevenia 11street weloveshopping Zalora Tiki
5 Zalora Blibli Qoo10 Tarad Ensogo Cdiscount
Source: Jefferies, Alexa
As expected most of the top e-tailing players are horizontal players selling across multiple
categories with mobile & electronics and fashion & accessories being the top two
categories. Amongst the vertical e-tailers, fashion & accessories is by the far the most
popular category with many players like Zalora, Reebonz and FashionValet; electronics,
home furnishing and grocery are some of the other verticals.

Exhibit 41: Horizontal players in Asean e-tailing


S.No Site/Company HQ Countries operating in Founded in Investment Investors Founder/CEO
(US$mn)
1 Qoo10/Giosis Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, 2,010 82 Singapore Press Holdings, Ebay, Brookside Capital, Oak IP Ku Young Bae
China, HK, Japan
2 Lazada Singapore SEA (6) 2,012 680 Rocket, Temasek, Tesco, Tengelmann, Summit Partners Maximilian Bittner
3 Bukalapak Indonesia Indonesia 2,011 n/a Emtek, Queensbridge VP Nugroho Herucahyono, Achmad Zaky
4 Tokopedia Indonesia Indonesia 2,009 248 Softbank William Tanuwijaya, Leontinus Alpha
Edison
5 Elevenia Indonesia Indonesia 2,013 68 XL Axiata, SK planet James Lee
6 Blibli Indonesia Indonesia 2,010 n/a Djarum Group, Bank Central Asia Kusumo Martanto
7 Lelong Malaysia Malaysia 1,998 n/a MIH Kwok Wei, Richard Tan
8 11street Malaysia Malaysia 2,015 n/a Celcom Axiata, SK Planet Hoseok Kim
9 Ensogo Thailand Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, 2,009 42 Vipshop, Ward Ferry Paul Srivorakul, John Srivorakul, Tom
Thailand, Philippines, HK, US Srivorakul
10 Tarad Thailand Thailand 1,999 n/a Rakuten Pawoot Pongvitayapanu
11 Metrodeal Philippines Philippines 2,011 n/a Transcosmos Ralph Wunsch
12 Vatgia Vietnam Vietnam 2,006 n/a CyberAgent Ventures Nguyen Ngoc Diep
13 Sendo Vietnam Vietnam n/a n/a FPT Corp Tran Hai Linh
14 Tiki Vietnam Vietnam 2,010 1 CyberAgent Ventures, Sumitomo Corp Trần Ngọc Thái Sơn
Source: Jefferies, company data

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Exhibit 42: Vertical players in Asean e-tailing


S.No Site/Company HQ Countries operating in Founded in Segment Investment Investors Founder/CEO
(US$mn)
1 Zalora Singapore SEA (6), HK, Taiwan, 2012 Fashion & accessories 212 Rocket Internet, Access Industries, Tengelmann, Michael Ferrario, Harry Markl
Australia, New Zealand Summit Partners, Kinnevik
2 Reebonz Singapore SG, MA,TH, ID, Asia 2009 Fashion & accessories 64 GGV Capital, Intel Capital, Matrix, MediaCorp Samuel Lim, Daniel Lim,
Pacific Benjamin Han
3 FashionValet Malaysia Malaysia 2010 Fashion & accessories 6 Elixir Capital, Start Today Vivy Yusof, Fadzarudin Anuar
4 Thegiodidong Vietnam Vietnam 2004 Mobile, electronics n/a Robert Alan Willett, CDH Electric Bee Limited, Nguyen Duc Tai
Mekong Capital
5 Hermo Malaysia MA 2012 Beauty products 2 Gobi Partners Ian Chua
6 HipVan Singapore SG,PH,VI 2013 Home furnishing 5 Golden Gate Ventures, East Ventures, LionRock Danny Tan
Capital, Toivo Annus
7 Redmart Singapore Singapore 2011 Grocery 55 Garena, Softbank Ventures Korea, Visionnaire Roger Egan, Vikram Rupani,
Ventures, Eduardo Saverin Rajesh Lingappa
Source: Jefferies, company data
Marketplace the dominant model in the region, especially amongst
horizontal players
Market place is the dominant model Market place rather than inventory based selling is by far the dominant model in the
amongst the horizontal players; region with most of the key players running either pure market places (qoo10, Tokopedia,
Inventory is more popular amongst Bukalapak, Elevenia, Lelong) or a mix of inventory and market place (Lazada, Zalora).
vertical players Lazada for instance started off as an inventory based e-tailer but has transitioned to a
hybrid model in 2014 – currently marketplace accounts for 75-80% of its total GMV. In
fact the Inventory model seems more popular amongst vertical players
(thegiodidong.com, Hipvan, FashionValet, Redmart).

Exhibit 43: Most horizontal players follow the marketplace model, vertical
players often follow inventory model
E-tailer Marketplace Inventory Hybrid
Horizontal players
Qoo10 √√√ X X
Lazada X X √√√
Bukalapak √√√ X X
Tokopedia √√√ X X
Elevenia √√√ X X
Blibli √√√ X X
Lelong √√√ X X
11street √√√ X X
Ensogo √√√ X X
Tarad √√√ X X
Metrodeal √√√ X X
Vatgia √√√ X X
Sendo √√√ X X
Tiki X √√√ X
Vertical players
Zalora X X √√√
Reebonz X X √√√
FashionValet X √√√ X
thegiodidong X √√√ X
HipVan X √√√ X
Redmart X √√√ X
Source: Jefferies, company data
Cash on delivery and manual banking, the dominant payment methods
Cash on delivery/manual banking Cash on delivery and manual banking are dominant payment methods for e-tailing across
are the dominant payment modes the region. E-payment is the #1 payment method only in relatively developed economies
outside of Singapore and Malaysia like Singapore and Malaysia but even in Singapore, cash on delivery ranks #2. We believe
this is likely to remain unchanged for some time given the nascent stage of the e-tailing
market in the region and relatively low credit/debit card penetration outside of Singapore
and Malaysia.

Exhibit 44: Cash on delivery or manual banking are dominant payment


methods in many of the countries
Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam
Top 2 payment e-Payment Manual Banking e-Payment Cash on Delivery Cash on Delivery Cash on Delivery
modes on Lazada CoD e-Payment Online Banking e-Payment e-Payment e-Payment
Source: Jefferies, Lazada

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Exhibit 45: Credit card penetration is low outside of Singapore and Malaysia

Source: Jefferies, World Bank


Social networking sites play a key role in lead generation
Social networking sites drive a lot of Another trend for e-tailing in South East Asia is the key role played by social networking
e-commerce traffic particularly in sites in driving e-commerce traffic. Across the region, social networking sites like Facebook
Philippines and Thailand and Twitter as well as chat platforms such as Line and Blackberry Messenger play a key
role in the online buyer’s decision making process. As a result a strong social commerce
strategy is key to success in many of the South East Asian markets. At the same time, this is
also a risk for large incumbent e-tailers as new entrants and smaller players can use social
networking sites to capture traffic share and leads to higher online marketing costs.
Logistics companies, beneficiaries of the e-commerce boom
Three models for logistics: 1) existing Growth of e-tailing will also require significant investment in logistics, as has been the
3P logistics/courier companies 2) 3P case in other markets. There are three models in which this can evolve: 1) Existing logistics
companies dedicated to e-commerce companies investing in e-commerce focused logistics – this is already happening across
3) In-house by e-tailers such as Lazada the region with companies like SingPost, Pos Malaysia and GD express. In fact Alibaba has
Express invested close to US$500mn in Sing Post to develop e-commerce logistics in the region 2)
emergence of e-commerce focussed logistics companies – we found a number of such
companies (see table below) with aCommerce being the largest 3) e-tailers developing
their own in-house logistics arm – Lazada Express is an example of this in the Asean region
and is likely to be the largest e-commerce logistics company in the region.

Exhibit 46: E-commerce focused logistics companies


S.No Company Founded in HQ Countries operating in Fund Raised Investors Founder/CEO
(USD million)
1 aCommerce 2013 Thailand Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, 19 Ardent Capital, Inspire Venture, Sinar Mas, DKSH, Paul Srivorakul
Singapore Cyber Agent Ventures, NTT Docomo Ventures
2 Ninja Logistics 2014 Singapore Singapore, Malaysia 3 Monk's Hill Ventures Chang Lai, Shaun Chong, Tan Boxian
3 Zyllem 2013 Singapore Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines 0 n/a Noam Berda
4 Anchanto 2011 Singapore SEA (6), India, Australia n/a Trans Cosmos, Innosight Ventures, Cub Capital, Vaibhav Dabhade, Shafique Muhammad,
Singapore Angel Network Abhimanyu Kashikar
5 8Commrece 2015 Indonesia Indonesia n/a Linc group Ronny Ritongadi
Source: Jefferies, company data

Travel, classified, entertainment the other key


segments with local players
Travel, classified and entertainment are the other major categories of internet/e-commerce
which have seen the emergence of local companies in South East Asia.

Grab is one of the key travel In travel, the major local player is Grab which is present in 28 cities across the six major
companies in the region and is South East Asian countries and competes with Uber across the region. It is part of the
locked in competition with Uber global alliance that includes Didi Chuxing (China), Lyft (US) and Ola (India). Grab has
multiple offerings encompassing metered & licensed taxis (Grab Taxi), private car services
(Grab Car), bike services (Grab bike), car-pooling (Grab Hitch) and last mile delivery
service (Grab express). According to management, Singapore is its largest market by
revenue but Indonesia is the biggest growth driver. Majority of transactions happen in
cash, but the share of credit card transactions has been rising.

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Icarsclub, which has raised US$70mn from Sequoia Capital, amongst others, is a P2P car
rental service that has emerged to take advantage of the large opportunity in Singapore,
due to government regulations making private car ownership prohibitively expensive
(private car ownership in SG is less than 20% despite high income levels).
OTAs are mostly dominated by The OTA space in South East Asia (see table below) is dominated by global players such as
global players – Traveloka and Tripadvisor, Expedia, booking.com, agoda.com and Airbnb. The major local players are
Tiket.com in Indonesia are some Traveloka and Tiket.com, both in Indonesia. While both these OTAs operate across the
exceptions spectrum, the key traffic driver for these is flight ticketing.

Exhibit 47: Top travel websites in South East Asia


Rank Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam
1 Tripadvisor Traveloka Air Asia Agoda Cebupacificair Vietjetair
2 Singapore air Agoda Agoda Booking.com Tripadvisor Jetstar
3 Agoda Booking.com Tripadvisor Airasia.com Agoda Agoda
4 Booking.com Airasia.com Malaysia airlines Tripadvisor Air Asia n/a
5 Expedia Tiket Airbnb Airbnb Philippine airlines n/a
Source: Jefferies, Alexa
We found budget hotel aggregation Online budget hotel/accommodation aggregation is also emerging as an exciting new
to be an emerging new area segment within the travel space. We came across two such companies, viz. Zen Rooms,
funded by Rocket Internet, and Red Doorz. Both these companies are focused on the
budget category – Zen Rooms operates across Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka
and Indonesia while Red Doorz is focused only on Indonesia at the moment. While Zen
Rooms is aggregating budget hotel rooms, Red Doorz is working on alternate
accommodation like B&B, guest houses etc.

Exhibit 48: Key local travel companies


S.No Company Founded HQ Countries of operation Description Investors Funds raised Founders/CEO
in (US$mn)
1 Grab 2011 Singapore SEA (6) Services - Taxi SoftBank, Tiger Global, GGV 680 Anthony Tan, Tan Hooi Ling
Capital, Vertex Ventures and CIC
2 Traveloka 2012 Indonesia SEA (6) Online travel agent, with Global Founders Capital, East n/a Derianto Kusuma, Albert Zhang, Ferry
focus on air & hotels Ventures Unardi
3 iCarsclub 2012 Singapore Singapore Peer-to-peer Car rental Sequoia Capital, IDG Capital, 70 Jamie Jiaming, Chengkun Xue, Eddy
Morningside Group Zhang
4 Tiket.com 2011 Indonesia Indonesia Online travel agent, with Global Innovation through Science 0 Wenas Agusetiawan, Mikhael Gaery,
focus on air & hotels and Technology Natali Ardianto, Dimas Surya Yaputra
5 Zen Rooms 2015 Singapore Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Budget hotel booking Rocket Internet n/a Nathan Boublil, Kiren Tanna
Philippines, Sri Lanka, Brazil
Source: Jefferies, company data
Classifieds segment of e-commerce has a large number of local players in South East Asia.
Many local players in classifieds, The key classifieds segments are 1) property and 2) recruitment. PropertyGuru and
particularly property and Iproperty are the dominant players in the region in real estate classified. PropertyGuru is
recruitment classified the #1 player in Singapore and Indonesia (through its acquisition of Rumah) while
Iproperty is the #1 player in Malaysia with operations across the region. In recruitment
classified, JobStreet, headquartered in Malaysia, is the dominant portal and is #1 across
Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Other local classified players include
SgCarMart, iCarAsia, 2banh (all car & bikes classified), Carousell, Jualo (both C2C market
place like Olx), HungryGoWhere (restaurant classified, now acquired by Singtel).

Exhibit 49: Key local classifieds companies


S.No Company Founded HQ Countries of operation Description Investors Funds raised Founders/CEO
in (US$mn)
1 PropertyGuru/ 2006 Singapore Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Property Classified Square Peg Capital, TPG, Emtek 129 Steve Melhuish, Jani Rautiainen
Rumah Thailand
2 Iproperty 2007 Malaysia Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Property Classified REA Group, Comdisco Ventures 129 Patrick Grove, Joshua Wong
Indonesia, HK
3 Nhadatso n/a Vietnam Vietnam Property Classified n/a n/a n/a
4 JobStreet 1997 Malaysia Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Recruitment Classified n/a n/a Mark Chang Mun Kee
Philippines, Vietnam
5 VietnamWorks 2002 Vietnam Vietnam Recruitment Classified n/a n/a Jonah Levey (Founder)
6 SgCarMart 2004 Singapore Singapore Cars Classified n/a n/a Henry Seah, Tan Jing Lun,
Vincent Tan
7 iCarAsia 2008 Malaysia Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia Cars Classified carsales.com.au 7 Patrick Grove
8 2banh n/a Vietnam Vietnam Bikes classified n/a n/a Anh Tung Ho
9 Carousell 2012 Singapore Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Classified Marketplace Rakuten, Darius Cheung, Sequoia, 7 Quek Siu Rui, Marcus Tan Yi
Taiwan, Australia, HK, US Golden Gate Ventures, 500 Startups, etc. Wei, Lucas Ngoo
10 Jualo 2014 Indonesia Indonesia Classified NSI Ventures, Alpha JWC Ventures n/a Chaim Fetter
12 HungryGoWhere 2006 Singapore Singapore, Malaysia Restaurant classified n/a n/a Dennis Goh, Wong Hoong
Source: Jefferies, company data

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The entertainment category comprises 1) gaming companies 2) music/video streaming


Number of gaming companies in the
sites and 3) new sites. The biggest gaming company in the region is Garena which is an
region, with Garena and VNG being
online gaming platform operating across the region and in Taiwan. As discussed in our
two of the largest
company profile section in greater detail, Garena has also diversified into e-tailing through
its mobile-centric social platform Shopee and also has a payments platform AirPay. The
other large gaming company in the region is VNG – like Garena, VNG also started off as a
gaming company (under the name “VinaGame”) but has since diversified into social
network & messaging (through Zing Me and Zalo) and payments (through 123Pay).
Other gaming companies in the region include game publishers such as Asiasoft (based
out of Thailand) and developers cum publishers such as Touchten Games (Indonesia) and
PlayLab (Thailand). In music/video streaming, Iflix the Malaysian equivalent of Netflix
emerges as the most interesting player – it has already raised US$75mn from investors.
While many news sites emerged amongst the top 25 sites by traffic in each of the
countries, we largely exclude such content creators from the purview of this report.

Exhibit 50: Key local gaming and entertainment companies


S.No Company Founded HQ Countries of operation Description Investors Funds raised Founders/CEO
in (US$mn)
1 Garena 2009 Singapore SEA (6), Taiwan Gaming, e-tailing Khazanah Nasional Berhad 172 Forrest Li
2 VNG 2004 Vietnam Vietnam Gaming, social n/w, messaging CyberAgent Ventures n/a Hong Minh le & Bryan Pelz
3 Asiasoft Corp. 2001 Thailand SEA (6), Cambodia, Burma Game Publisher n/a n/a Sherman Tan
4 Touchten Games 2009 Indonesia Indonesia Game developer, publisher Gree, 500 Stratups, Ideosource n/a Anton Soeharyo, Dede
Indrapurna, Rokimas Putra
5 PlayLab 2012 Thailand SEA (6) Game developer, publisher Monk's Hill Ventures 5 Thomas Andreessen, Jakob
Lykkegaard Pedersen
6 Iflix 2014 Malaysia Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines Online shows & movies like Netflix Emtek Group, Sky & Catcha 75 Mark Britt, Patrick Grove
Source: Jefferies, company data

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Challenges around divergence between


countries on regulations and logistics
Key challenges are around We believe the key challenges to e-commerce/internet companies in the region are
divergence across Asean countries, in around 1) divergence in key areas across countries such as stage of development/income
languages, regulatory hurdles and levels, languages, data connectivity infrastructure and extent of regulatory oversight. As a
logistic issues result unit economics can be different in different countries and it is often necessary to
have significant local presence 2) regulatory hurdles particularly in Indonesia, Philippines
and Vietnam which rank low in the ease of doing business and 3) logistics related
challenges, particularly outside of Singapore and Malaysia.

1. Divergence across countries a key challenge


While we have looked at ASEAN region as a single block in many parts of this report, and
Divergence in discretionary spend,
many of the e-commerce companies also operate across the region, divergence in key
ticket size, user habits, wage cost:
parameters across countries or lack of homogeneity is a key challenge. These take the
unit economics can be very different
form of:
in different countries of Asean
1) Significant divergence in stage of development/income levels leading to
diversity in discretionary spend, ticket size, user habits etc. – as a result, the unit
economics can be very different in different parts of the ASEAN region and a model that is
profitable in one country need not necessarily work in another

2) Diversity of languages – English works well in Singapore and Philippines but to a


Local language is an important factor
lesser extent in Malaysia and Thailand; operating in the local language is key in Indonesia
in Vietnam and Indonesia
and Vietnam

3) Broadband/telecom penetration/infrastructure varies widely across these


countries leading to significant differences in data speeds which may require
customization of the website/app based on location

4) Extent of regulatory oversight and ease of doing business – While all the
ASEAN countries are signatories to a free trade agreement, local regulations that need to
be complied with by businesses vary significantly. As discussed earlier, it is much easier to
conduct business in Singapore and Malaysia as compared to Indonesia, Vietnam and
Philippines – which we will discuss in detail in the next section.

As a result of these and other differences, we found most companies that operate across
the region operate through sizeable local teams.

Exhibit 51: Wide divergence in income across the region Exhibit 52: Local language is an important factor in
leads to differences in ticket size, wage cost, user habits Indonesia and Vietnam

Source: Jefferies, World Bank Source: Jefferies, company data

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2. Regulatory hurdles, particularly in Indonesia,


Philippines and Vietnam
Regulatory hurdles particularly in Regulations present a significant hurdle to e-commerce companies in the region,
Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam particularly outside of Singapore and Malaysia. As shown in the charts below, Indonesia,
Philippines and Vietnam rank low when it comes to parameters such as ease of starting a
business, ease of trading across borders and enforcing contracts, a sentiment echoed by
most of the industry players we interacted with.

Exhibit 53: Only Singapore and Exhibit 54: Issues in most of the ASEAN Exhibit 55: Major issues in enforcing
Malaysia stand out countries in trading across borders contracts in Indonesia & Philippines

Source: Jefferies, World Bank Source: Jefferies, World Bank Source: Jefferies, World Bank

None of the major South East Asian countries currently have restrictions on FDI in e-
commerce. Even in Indonesia, where e-commerce was on the negative list till recently, the
government announced a revised negative list in February, 2016 which has allowed 100%
FDI in e-commerce provided the investment is over Rp100bn (US$7.5mn). However
bureaucratic procedures remain an impediment – in Thailand for instance a Board of
Investment approval is required for any foreign investment, which takes time. On the
logistics side, Indonesia seems to have a 33% FDI limit on distribution and warehousing.

Exhibit 56: FDI restrictions in South East Asian countries – no major


restrictions in e-commerce, restriction on logistics in Indonesia
Country Comments on FDI restrictions in e-commerce & logistics
Singapore No restriction on foreign investment in e-commerce or logistics
Malaysia No restriction on foreign investment in e-commerce or logistics
Indonesia Removed e-commerce from the negative list for foreign investments for investments above Rp100bn (US$7.3mn)
in Feb, 2016. 33% FDI allowed in distribution and warehousing
Philippines No restriction on foreign investment in e-commerce or logistics
Thailand No restriction on FDI in e-commerce or logistics but BoI (Board of Investment) approval required which takes time
Vietnam No restriction on foreign investment in e-commerce or logistics
Source: Jefferies, media reports

3. Logistics related challenges


Logistics is another major challenge Logistics is another key challenge for growth of e-commerce in the region. There are many
particularly in Indonesia and issues that companies face in logistics: 1) Geographic issues – Indonesia and Philippines
Philippines which are archipelagos being archipelagos have special challenges in logistics as road transport is not possible to
many areas 2) Poor infrastructure particularly outside of Singapore and Malaysia 3) Severe
traffic issues in some of the major cities such as Bangkok and Jakarta affecting last mile
delivery 4) Handling cash on delivery – many of the existing logistics players are not
equipped to handle cash on delivery which is a major payment method in the region 5)
Returns – Given the nascent nature of the sector most of the e-tailers have liberal return
policies. This is especially true for apparel and accessories where customers like to try
multiple options before making a purchase decision. In addition cash on delivery
significantly raises chances of return because the person is not there to collect the parcel.

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6) Regulatory – As pointed out in the previous section, only 33% foreign investment is
allowed in distribution and warehousing in Indonesia

Exhibit 57: Logistics challenges particularly high in Indonesia and Philippines


which are archipelagos

Source: Jefferies, World Bank

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Company Profiles

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Garena – Asean’s Budding Tencent

Exhibit 58: Garena - Snapshot


Founded 2009 Founder/CEO Forrest Li
Funding (US$mn) 172 Key Investors Khazanah Nasional Berhad
Segment Gaming Description Gaming, e-tailing
HQ Singapore Regions SEA (6), Taiwan
Key Competitor(s) Asiasoft Corp. Touchten Games, PlayLab
Source: Jefferies, company data
Company Background
Garena was founded in early 2009 primarily as an online gaming platform by Mr. Forrest
Li and his friends. In 2014, Nick Nash (Group President) joined Garena. Nick first joined
GA in 2002 in New York and moved to Singapore in 2011 to co-found the firm’s ASEAN
office. Since then, Garena has evolved from a pure gaming platform to an integrated E-
commerce marketplace and payments platform. It currently has over 4,600 employees
across Asean with the headquarters being in Singapore.

Exhibit 59: Garena – development timeline


2008 US$2m angel funding round to create a gaming platform
2009 Garena founded by Forrest Li and friends as a gaming platform
2010 Garena+, an online gaming platform for gamers to meet, chat and play games
2013 Launched Beetalk, mobile social network
2014 Investment by General Atlantic and Tencent
2014 Launched Airpay, payment network for users with no credit card/ bank account
2015 Launched Shopee, mobile-centric E-commerce marketplace
2015 Investment round led by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund
Source: Jefferies, Company Data

Financing rounds
The initial launch of the gaming platform in 2009 was facilitated by angel funding
(US$2m). Since then, newspapers reports indicate that Tencent and General Atlantic have
invested in Garena in 2014. In March 2015, Ontario Teacher Pension Plan (OTPP) made an
investment (amount undisclosed, but newspaper reports indicate it gave Garena an
implied valuation of over US$2.5bn). In a more recent Series D funding round in March
2016, Garena raised US$170m from a consortium led by Khazanah, the strategic
investment fund of the Malaysian government (with press reports implying a valuation of
over US$3.75bn for Garena). Garena has thus raised over US$500m in four funding
rounds, which gives it a sizeable war chest for future investments according to
management.

Business Model
In its present form, Garena has three main business lines/ revenue streams:

Digital Content (Gaming/ Entertainment): Garena is a leading online gaming


portal in the Asean region. It started off as Garena+ which is an online gaming and social
platform for gamers. It has published several popular game titles in Asean like Point Blank,
Path of Exile, FIFA Online, Mstar Online, League of Legends etc. It also has a mobile
application which has other popular titles like Blade, Dragon Quest Monsters Super Light,
Headshot, House of Heroes, Thunder Strike and Journey to the West. Garena
complements its publishing business by supporting ESports through online and offline
platforms. Garena has an ESports studio that regularly produces and streams online
tournaments on Youtube and other channels. It also hosts flagship gaming tournaments,
sponsors leading game players and plays an important role in nurturing the Esports
ecosystem in Asean. This is a cash-cow business for Garena, with revenues reaching over
US$300m in 2015 (having grown at a CAGR of over 95% since 2011). As a publisher of
games, Garena has a much more stable revenue stream than the “hit n miss” risks
associated with a game developer or developer-cum-publisher.

Social and Ecommerce: Garena first entered the social platform in 2013 through the
launch of BeeTalk, its mobile social network which aims to connect people across similar

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interest groups in Asean. Garena then launched Shopee in 2015, a mobile-centric, social
marketplace where buyers and sellers can come online to transact goods. Shopee also has
an integrated payment and logistical support to support its online marketplace. Shopee
has made rapid progress in developing its users to over 4m and its GMV has hit over
USD350m in just 10 months from launch. Shopee has over 650k SMEs across Asean who
are using Shopee to bring their businesses online in a quick way, while taking advantage
of Shopee’s integrated payment and logistics options for order fulfilment. While a
relatively late entrant into the online E-commerce space in Asean, Shopee has shown
rapid progress in developing its platform metrics so far and it would be interesting to
watch if it can continue to execute in the same vein over the next few years.

Payments Platform: Garena launched AirPay as a secure payments platform for online
payments on its network. AirPay attempts to bring the over 420m Asean population, a
vast majority of which does not have easy access to banking/ credit card facilities, into the
fold of online Ecommerce. AirPay uses a reverse-ATM concept whereby users can convert
cash into digital currency at various retail points, which include gaming outlets
(cybercafes). Once they have currency in their digital wallet, users can then use it to pay
bills online, buy gaming credits or even for Ecommerce transactions, thereby creating a
truly parallel payment network independent of banking channels.

AirPay currently has over 100k retail points across Asean today and continues to grow its
access network at a rapid clip. In countries like Vietnam where ATM network penetration
is still low, this is a key advantage for online Ecommerce players and holds great potential.
AirPay is currently handling transactions with an annualised gross transaction value (GTV)
of US$330m), which is creditable since it started operations only in 2014.

Market Potential
According to Newzoo, a full service market researcher focused on the gaming industry,
Asean is one of the fastest growing online gaming markets in the world with industry
revenues expected to grow from US$1bn in 2013 to as high as US$2.2bn in 2017, a CAGR
of over 22%. Garena reported gaming revenues of about $300mn in 2015, implying an
overall market share of about 15-20% of the overall Asean gaming pie, across both PC and
Mobile games. For PC games specifically, Garena management estimates that it has a
dominant market share of over 30% of the addressable pie in ASEAN and Taiwan
(primarily includes PC/MMO and casual web games)

Exhibit 60: Asean gaming market split (2013A) Exhibit 61: Asean – fastest growing gaming market globally
Philipines 35.0%
9% Thailand
21% 30.0%
Vietnam 25.0%
14%
20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%
Indonesia Malaysia
0.0%
17% 20%
L America E Europe Asean

Online connectivity CAGR (2013-17)


Singapore
Gaming revenue CAGR (2013-17)
19%

Source: Jefferies, Industry data Source: Jefferies, Newzoo website, industry data

The online E-commerce market in Asean has similar growth potential. Frost and Sullivan
estimates that Asean e-commerce spend will rise from US$7bn in 2013 to US$35bn in
2018 (nearly 5x in 5 years). Even so, it will be less than 1-2% of the total retail spend in
Asean, indicating tremendous opportunity for future growth.

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Similarly, online payment solutions have great potential in Asean as the region is
considerably under-banked and also there are cultural issues with using credit cards
online (security issues etc.). Platforms like AirPay will compete with other digital wallet
providers like the telcos for providing solutions to these markets.

So in our view, both Shopee and AirPay have tremendous scalability potential. It will be
the execution on their strategies that will decide if they emerge amongst the winners in
their space and capture the market potential.

Competitive landscape and other challenges


Garena was a relatively early entrant into the gaming (interactive digital content) space for
the Asean region and has been able to build a strong customer base for its gaming
platform. Garena management indicates that it has over 45m active users across its
gaming platform (estimated to be one in four internet users in Asean space) generating
gross revenues of over US$300m (about 30pct of the addressable gaming revenue pie in
Asean as per management).

Nearly 20pct of gaming revenue now comes from the mobile platform and this portion
has been growing more rapidly. Garena’s management claims it is the leading gaming
platform in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines and Taiwan and has
recently attained that position in Vietnam as well. According to industry experts, the key
challenge in this space for companies like Garena would be to continue to convert its PC-
based platform users as they transition into the mobile space. It would also need to
continue to create a community feeling amongst its users to create stickiness and
maintain the relevance of its aggregator (game publisher) platform as we move on to the
mobile internet phase.

Garena’s current strategy is to leverage its strengths in the gaming space in


Asean to other adjacencies which can be localised. Hence starting 2013,
management has focussed on developing its presence in the E-commerce and Payments
space in Asean through Shopee and AirPay.

The Asean E-commerce space, while still very much in its infancy, has quite a few players
trying to build up their business models, some of which started before Shopee. Hence
unlike gaming, where Garena had a natural first-mover advantage, Shopee will have to
rely on better strategy and execution to outlast and out-manoeuvre the competition.
Garena management indicated that its Shopee strategy will be based on the following key
points:

Superior Product Platform with integrated chat and payments/ logistics


capabilities: Shopee was designed to be mobile-centric from the start, which makes it
easier to integrate a chat function into the buyer-seller interactions. Management believes
this social component is the key to make E-commerce successfully work in Asia. A sense of
community which allows buyers the ability to interact directly with the seller, rate/
comment on their product experience and also share their comments is an important
success feature. Also, since most sellers are SME players, offering them an integrated
payment/ logistics capability to complete the transaction seamlessly is important for an
online platform to become successful.

Deep localisation for each individual market: Shopee was launched as 7 different
apps across 7 countries in Asean with localisation for language preferences, content
presentation and payment preferences. Shopee also customises payment and delivery
options across each of their operating countries.

Creating a community feel; generating the platform effect: Shopee has made it
easier for SME sellers who have a large fan following to bring their business online by
offering them integrated logistics and payment facilities. This in turn has created a
network effect which has brought more buyers on to the platform at reasonably low
acquisition cost. From a standing start in 2013, Shopee has currently grown to a

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community of 4m buyers and over 650k sellers with latest GMV hitting an annualised run-
rate of US$350m p.a. after growing at a 68% monthly CAGR since inception. In fact,
according to Garena management, Shopee GMV run-rate after the 2nd year of operations
is higher than what leading players like Ebay, Alibaba etc. achieved at that stage of
growth.

Exhibit 62: Shopee's annualised GMV after 2 years compared to market


leaders
400.0

350.0

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
MercadoLibre Ebay Lazada Alibaba Shopee - current

MercadoLibre Ebay Lazada Alibaba Shopee - current

Source: Jefferies, Company Data

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Grab - The Local Challenge to Uber

Exhibit 63: Grab - Snapshot


Founded 2012 Founder/CEO Anthony Tan, Tan Hooi Ling
Funding (US$mn) 680 Key Investors SoftBank, Tiger Global, GGV Capital, Vertex Ventures and CIC
Segment Travel Description Services - Taxi
HQ Singapore Regions SEA (6)
Key Competitor(s) Uber
Source: Jefferies, company data

Company Background
Grab was originally launched in 2012 in Kuala Lumpur by Harvard Business School
graduates Mr. Anthony Tan and Ms. Tan Hooi Ling. Mr. Anthony Tan is the youngest
among three sons in a prominent Malaysian business family which owns Tan Chong
Motors, the largest car dealership in Malaysia.

Perceiving the difficulty of hailing a cab in KL, Anthony Tan drew up a business plan for a
cab-hailing service which was presented to the panel of the 2011 Harvard Business Plan
Competition. This then attracted a set of angel investors which led to the official launch of
Grab service in KL in June 2012.

The company has since grown rapidly, as seen in the table below, to include more than
250,000 drivers over 28 cities across 6 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand,
Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines). As of 2015, Grab management claims it has 50%
market share in the private-car hailing market in SEAsia, 95% market share in third-party
taxi-hailing market and a rapidly growing presence in the motor-bike hailing app space.
The Grab app receives over 1.5m app bookings per day across its services and usage was
still growing at over 35% monthly in the car booking segment and 75% monthly rate in
the bike segment (as of early 2016).

Exhibit 64: Grab timeline of development (2011 – 2016)


2011 Pitches idea to Harvard Business Plan Competition
Sep 2011 Creates Grab brand in KL, Malaysia
June 2012 Grab officially launches in Malaysia, (UBER and Easy Taxi already there)
April 2014 Series A funding of US$10m from Vertex (Temasek)
May 2014 Series B - US$15m from GGV Capital
Oct 2014 Series C of US$65m from Tiger Global, GGV, Vertex, Qunar, Hillhouse Capital
Nov 2014 GrabBike launched in Ho Chi Minh
Dec 2014 Series D, US$250m from Softbank
May 2015 GrabBike in Jakarta
Aug 2015 Series E of more than US$350m from Coatue, CICC and Didi Kuaidi
Dec 2015 Partnership with Didi Kuaidi (China), Ola (India) and Lyft (USA)
Jan 2016 Rebranded from Grabtaxi to Grab, (incl. GrabTaxi, GrabCar, GrabBike GrabHitch, GrabExpress)
Source: Jefferies, Company Data
More recently (in January 2016), Grab undertook a brand restructuring exercise
rebranding the company from GrabTaxi (MyTeksi in Malaysia) to Grab to reflect the
increased breadth of services the company now provides as a one-stop transportation
solutions provider. This includes GrabTaxi/MyTeksi (taxi-hailing), GrabCar (private car
booking), GrabBike (for bikes, especially in Jakarta, Bangkok), GrabHitch (social
carpooling), GrabExpress (last-mile delivery).

Another important development in Dec 2015 was the inking of a global alliance between
Didi Kuaidi (China), Ola (India), Lyft (USA) and Grab (S.E. Asia) to take on UBER by
providing seamless inter-linked services for their subscribers when they travel to different
geographies through their alliance partners. Grab thus becomes part of a global alliance
which provides an alternative to UBER.

Financing Rounds
Grab was initially launched on the back of angel funding received following Anthony
Tan’s team winning the 2011 Harvard Business Plan Challenge. It then executed three
series of VC funding between April and Oct 2014 which raised US$90m from Temasek,

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GGV Capital, Tiger Global, Qunar and Hillhouse Capital. Later in Dec 2014, it attracted a
massive US$250m investment from Softbank which was one of the largest start-up
funding deals in S.E.Asia. More recently in 2015, Grab raised the largest-ever funding
round in S.E.Asia with over US$350m raised from Coatue, CICC and Didi Kuaidi.

Business Model
Like Uber, Grab operates a simple marketplace business model for personal transportation
services. Grab collects a fee for its service of optimally connecting demand and supply for
personal transport. In case of taxis, Grab charges a fixed absolute commission per ride
whereas in case of private car, bike and delivery services, it charges a percentage
commission on the total ride value. It benefits users by broadcasting their request to a
larger group of fleet drivers, and benefits the drivers by cutting down on idle cruising
times and improving route scheduling. Grab is able to use dynamic pricing to influence
supply i.e. by allowing users to pay a premium for urgent bookings, giving drivers a
greater incentive to offer services during peak-periods etc.

Competitive landscape and other challenges


Whilst the economic rationale for online taxi services seems fairly clear, implementing a
successful start-up strategy to meet this need requires solid execution on 1) managing the
regulatory eco-system, 2) being able to scale-up and reach critical mass in terms of both
users and drivers to shut out competition. Most geographies start out as fragmented
markets with operators offering aggressive incentives to lure both drivers and users to
their platforms. Consolidation can take place over a fairly long period. In this context,
Grab management believes it has four clear advantages to ride out a long period of
industry consolidation and emerge as winner:

1) Localisation: In comparison to Uber, Grab sees better localisation capabilities as a key


advantage. Grab’s origin as a taxi-booking app in Malaysia/Singapore has helped. First, it
has allowed better liaison with regulatory environment as taxi services/ fares are regulated
in most countries. Also, by enticing taxi drivers to first sign up to its platform, it has
ensured that users booking on to the Grab platform have a critical mass of drivers to meet
their demand. Satisfying the requirements of the early users in terms of availability and
response times can set in motion a positive word-of-mouth cycle which gets in more users
to try out the platform. Secondly, Grab has large local teams across 6 countries which
collectively speak the 30 major dialects of the Southeast Asian region. This enables Grab
to better assist passengers in local markets and to acquire local drivers, many of whom
cannot converse in English or other major languages of the region. Thirdly, Grab’s large
physical presence in the region enables it to acquire drivers more easily in a region where
online acquisition of drivers is less effective than other markets globally.

2) One-stop transportation network: In comparison to its competitors, Grab


provides a full suite of transportation and delivery solutions tailored to the differentiated
markets of Southeast Asia. It provides taxi and private car services across all 6 countries, as
well as bike and express courier and food delivery services across Indonesia, Vietnam,
Thailand and the Philippines, where bikes are a complementary mode of transportation
and delivery. For example, more than a quarter of all Grab users use multiple services on
the platform, a feature which no other competitor provides in Southeast Asia.

3) Flexibility in payment options: Uber relies on credit cards as the primary payment
option for their services. This works well in developed countries where credit cards
penetration/ usage is high. However, in S.E.Asia region where credit card penetration is
low and where users culturally prefer to pay cash even when they have credit cards, Grab
has allowed for cash as a payment option in addition to credit cards.

4) Funding: Grab has raised nearly US$700mn in private funding already and therefore
has strong financial backing relative to its smaller local competitors to ride out a long
consolidation period in the industry during which most players might be generating cash
losses on account of driver incentives and user acquisition costs.

page 30 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

Market potential for personal transportation apps


Since Singapore provides good data on its transportation metrics, we have done some
back-of-the-envelope calculations to estimate that the total amount spent on taxi services
in Singapore per annum is just over S$6bn (see Table 2 below).

If we estimate that potentially a third of these users would move to booking private car
services through online booking apps and if app providers like Grab/ Uber charge about
5-10% of transportation fees as service charges, then the potential pie for online service
charges is around S$100-200m p.a. in just Singapore alone. (Note that Grab operates in
28 cities across S.E.Asia currently.)

It should be noted that the ultimate target of transportation apps like Uber/Grab is not to
just target the taxi services spending pie for personal transportation but also potentially
the much larger private car ownership space by making transportation services a pay-as-
you-use model rather than as an ownership based model as it is at present. It is therefore
evident that the scalability of a personal transportation app like Grab/Uber has a long way
to go and the key to being successful remains the ability/ resilience to survive the
inevitable consolidation phase in the industry and manage its cash burn till the market
matures.

Exhibit 65: Back-of-the-envelope estimate of annual taxi spend in SG


Total number of taxis in SG 28,000
Estimated no. of trips per day 25
Total trips per day 700,000

Average mileage per trip (km) 10


Cumulative taxi mileage per day (kms) 7,000,000
Average tariff (S$ per km) 2.5
Estimated taxi tariff collection per day ($M) 17.5
on an annual basis (S$m) 6,300
Source: Jefferies estimates, LTA website

page 31 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

PropertyGuru – Focus and localisation


Company Background
PropertyGuru was founded in May 2007 and the online platform was formally launched
in Dec 2007 by Steve Melhuish and co-founder Jani Rautiainen. Steve thought of
launching PropertyGuru out of his personal frustrations in trying to find a new home as an
expat in Singapore in 2006. Prior to founding PropertyGuru, Steve worked for 12 years in
telecoms and over 5 years in start-up/ VC outfits including an investment bank (Ariadne
Capital), his own digital consultancy and also an online platform to share comics.

Today, PropertyGuru is the leading online property group in South East Asia used by over
16 million property seekers and having over 34,000 property advertisers every month. It
generates over 130m page views and 0.5m sales enquiries per month for its advertisers
and management estimates it is responsible for about S$17bn of property transactions
per month.

Exhibit 66: PropertyGuru; Timeline of key events


May 2007 Co-founded by Steve Melhuish and Jani Rautiainen
Dec 2007 Property portal launched in SG
2008 Raised S$2m round A funding from angel inv
2010 Reached 10k paying agents in SG, clear market leaders
2011 S$5m round B from VCs
2011 Expansion into Asean by acquisition
Acquired Fullhouse (Malaysia), Rumah.com (Indo), Ddproperty.com (Thai)
2013 Hit 1bn page views, 1m app downloads
2013 S$60m investment by Inmobilien 24 (Deustche Tel)
2014 1m property listings, 30k paying agents
2015 S$175m investment from TPG, Emtek, Square Peg Capital
Source: Company Data

Funding programme
After its founding in May 2007, PropertyGuru ran on the founder’s own funds for the first
18 months or so. The first angel round raised S$2m in 2008 and then S$5m in 2011,
followed by a larger investment of S$60m by European property portal (Immobilien
Scout24 of the Deustche Telekom group) in 2013. The most recent round was in June
2015 when it raised S$175m from an investment consortium comprising TPG, Indonesia’s
largest media group – Emtek and Square Peg Capital. Part of this capital raised has been
deployed in three acquisitions that PropertyGuru has done over the last six month – 1)
ePropertyTrack – a leading marketing company working for Asean developers, 2)
RumahDijual – a leading property portal in Indonesia and a complementary fit for
PropertyGuru’s existing operations, 3) Ensign Media – a luxury property investment
magazine and leading property awards platform across 9 countries.

Business Model
PropertyGuru has 2 key customer groups – 1) Property agents, 2) Corporate clients (real
estate developers and banks). As an online property portal, PropertyGuru makes money
primarily in three ways:
1. Agents’ fee or listing fee: It charges agents a monthly fee to use its platform for
advertising their property listings. The current listing fees charged on a monthly basis
to agents are shown below.

Exhibit 67: Listing fee by tiers charged to agents by PropertyGuru


Tier Basic Specialist Elite
Annual fee (S$) 630 980 2240
Concurrent Listings 10 50 100
New / Re-Listings Credits 480 3,000 7,200
Source: Company Data

page 32 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

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21 April 2016

Here the main objective is to capture the shift from offline (print) advertising to online.
According to the management, PropertyGuru’s agent subscription packages equate to a
maximum price of S$0.35/listing per day – this is one-hundredth of the cost of advertising
in newspapers, which cost S$35 (US$27) for three lines of print. Seven years ago, almost
100 percent of all advertising was in newspaper with agents typically spending S$5,000
(US$3,860) per annum there whereas agents pay PropertyGuru as low as S$630 (US$486)
a year to advertise.

Management also believes that in markets like SG, the focus has now shifted to increasing
the average revenue per agent (“ARPA”). Basic tier annual fees have risen from early teaser
rates of S$50p.a. at the early stage (2009-09) to S$630 per annum currently as agents
realise that online ads are a more cost effective way of generating sales lead than
traditional media. Agents are also increasingly spending on “discretionary” or depth
services which are optional add-on services to give agents or their listings a better
exposure. Bulk of PropertyGuru’s revenue (~70-80%) currently comes from agent listing
fees.

2. Online Advertising: PropertyGuru also earns revenues by selling ad spots on its


online property and printed newsletter. With a dominant share of page views in SG
and increasingly in the ASEAN region, PropertyGuru is well-placed to monetise its
page views through targeted online advertising. It also has a printed newsletter to
supplement its online proposition to advertisers on its platform.

3. Property developers’ marketing – integrated sales campaigns:


PropertyGuru team plans to support the entire campaign for property developers
from advertising to sales of new property launches. This is currently a small portion
of revenues for PropertyGuru, but is an important target market to grow income
streams in the future. As seen in table below, ad spend by developers to market new
property launches make up a much larger portion of the total property industry ad
spend (particularly in less developed markets like Indonesia, Thailand). As such, the
developer marketing/ advertising pie is much bigger than the agents listing space
that PropertyGuru has thus far targeted.

Exhibit 68: Property developers dominate ad spend in Asean


Real estate ad spend (S$m) Agents vs
developers
Singapore 200 30:70
Indonesia 200 10:90
Malaysia 270 30:70
Thailand 140 10:90
Source: Company Data

Management believes that providing developers a bespoke, integrated and targeted


marketing strategy for new launches is likely to drive PropertyGuru’s next leg of growth.
This would enable to target the much bigger developer spend pie. It is therefore
allocating considerable resources to big data analytics of its user base, its browsing
patterns and getting more demographic data.

PropertyGuru acquired ePropertyTrack (EPT) in July 2015. EPT is a leading new project
sales and marketing company in Asean which has an information sharing platform to
facilitate real-time sharing of information between developers and its sales/ marketing
teams. This information could involve multi-media promotional material, real-time
booking and inventory updates as well as real-time incentive changes.

Management believes one of its key challenges going forward is finding and retaining the
right talent to scale up its operations at the pace required. PropertyGuru has over 350
employees currently, with its HQ hubbed out of Singapore, but significant presence
allocated to local offices across Asean. PropertyGuru is also looking to de-risk its

page 33 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

operations by moving some support functions to Thailand/ Malaysia and having a 2 nd


data center in Bangkok.

Competitive landscape and other challenges


According to Oct 2015 to March 2016 data from ComScore, a leading cross-platform
measurement company which tracks average time on site engagement for portals,
PropertyGuru claims to be the No.1 property portal across the 4 key markets it operates in
– Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

In Singapore, PropertyGuru claims to be by far the dominant real estate website based on
the following statistics:
 4x the number of daily visits compared to the next best portal
 Captures 85% of time spent on all property portals combined
 18x more time spent on PropertyGuru compared to next best
 Property seekers visit 11 pages per visit on PropertyGuru, 1.5x the next best
 77% share of all property page views in SG

In Indonesia, the group recently acquired rumahdijual (“house for sale”), which
combined with its existing portal rumah.com, is estimated to give the group a market
share of 45% of all time spent on property portals as per company estimates, nearly 2x
the next largest competitor. Together, the two Indonesian portals have over 5.5m
property seekers viewing over 30m pages per month.

As per ComScore data cited by management, PropertyGuru also has a leading


engagement market share in Thailand (59%), nearly 3x the No.2 player and has just
edged out its nearest competitor Iproperty to reach the top spot in Malaysia with 43%
market share.

In addition to the above, PropertyGuru has marketing partnerships with the leading
property portals in Australia, HK, China, India, Vietnam and Cambodia where they cross
sell and share listings to increase overseas buyer leads for their clients from these countries
as well as bringing properties from these countries to buyers in their 4 markets

The company is also investing heavily in data analytics to develop its user base profile,
analyse browsing patterns. It has invested in services which allow users to compare the
mortgage packages offered by different banks, works out their annual mortgage
payments and DSCR ratios. It also provides property research data to property agents,
consumers and as well real estate developers.

Market Opportunity
PropertyGuru currently estimates its platform has 1.3m property listings, 34k paying
agents, over 16m users, 3m app downloads. It estimates property transactions of S$17bn
per annum made through the sales leads generated on its portals. Industry estimates peg
the total value of property transactions in Asean at around S$140bn p.a. Ad spend on this
is estimated to be around S$800m p.a. across Asean (~0.5-0.6% of total transaction
value). Of this, only 10% currently is spent on online channels with over 90% done
through traditional channels like print, television hoardings etc. In more developed
markets like Australia, over 50% of the ad spend is targeted at online channels.

This implies that online spend for the property space in the Asean market could hit S$300-
350m p.a .if it manages to catch up with the Australian market dynamics over the next 4-5
years. Eventually, management expects a leading portal which survives the inevitable
industry consolidation to capture 70-80% market share of spend in any market.
Management estimates this could conservatively lead to potential top line of S$200-250m
for a portal like PropertyGuru in the Asean space. In mature markets, once the initial set-
up and development costs are completed, EBITDA margins in this space can be as high as
50-75% (as seen in the financial performance of REA AU, the leading property portal in
Australia and RightMove, UK). Based on this, management estimates PropertyGuru could

page 34 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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21 April 2016

easily hit EBITDA run-rates of S$100-130mp.a. as Asean property markets start shifting
more towards online advertising.

One of Asean’s other leading property portals Iproperty group was recently bought by
the REA group (realestate.com.au, the largest online portal in Australia and part of the
NewsCorp group). REA bought out the 87% stake it did not own in iproperty for A$580m
(S$600m) implicitly valuing iproperty at over A$750m. Iproperty group as per its ASX
filing expected to generate A$32m of revenue and A$2.5m of EBITDA in 2015. This
implies an EV/sales multiple of 24x.

Exhibit 69: Online ad spend in Asean vs developed markets like Australia

Source: Company Data, REA website

The analysis above has largely focussed on targeting property advertising costs and how a
switch to online forum could benefit leading property portals like PropertyGuru. Note that
in addition to the S$800m p.a. (0.5-0.6% of transaction value) spent on advertising, sales
commission is another major marketing cost for real estate. Sales commissions are
estimated at nearly S$2bn p.a. (~1.2-1.5%) of total value of property transactions. This is a
much larger pie to target for online property portals particularly in the developer sales
(primary sales) market.

page 35 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


Technology
Internet

21 April 2016

Lazada – Alibaba’s Proxy in South East Asia

Exhibit 70: Lazada - Snapshot


Founded 2012 Founder/CEO Maximilian Bittner
Funding ($ MM) 1,186 Key Investors Rocket Internet, Temasek, Kinnevik, Tengelmann, Tesco, Summit
Segment E-tailing Description Horizontal e-tailing
HQ Singapore Areas of ops Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam
Key Competitor(s) Qoo10, Taobao, Ebay, Tokopedia
Source: Jefferies, company data

Company background & Funding


In April 2016, Alibaba invested US$1bn in Lazada including US$500mn of fresh infusion,
the rest being stake sales by existing investors. Post completion of the transaction, Alibaba
will become the controlling shareholder of Lazada.

Lazada was founded in 2012 by Rocket Internet. It operates across the Asean region with
operations in all six major countries. Lazada has raised US$1.2bn in funding till date and is
reported to be valued at US$2bn. It has raised multiple rounds of funding over the years,
the most significant being US$250mn in November 2014, led by Temasek, US$250mn in
December, 2013 led by Tesco and US$100mn in June 2013.

Business model & Financials


Lazada is a horizontal e-tailer, selling items across multiple categories. It started as an
inventory based model but started expanding its marketplace in 2014 – currently 75-80%
of its GMV comes from its marketplace. As of September, 2015 it had over 30k active
sellers on its platform, 10mn SKUs and 8mn customers. Its GMV run-rate is now over
US$1bn and it claims to be the #1 e-tailer in the Asean region. Lazada has witnessed a
significant transition from desktops to mobiles in the last 2 years with 60% of its GMV
now coming from mobile vs. 20% at the beginning of 2014. Lazada’s mobile app has had
over 30mn downloads.

Lazada has an in-house logistics arm known as Lazada Express. It covers over 250 cities
and districts with 6 sortation centres, 84 last mile distribution hubs and a fleet of 2000
vehicles. However it also uses a large number of third party logistics companies. For sellers
on its market place, Lazada encourages the “Fulfilment by Lazada” model wherein sellers
pre-stock their inventory at Lazada’s warehouse and once an order is placed by a
customer, Lazada takes care of picking, packing, invoicing and shipping the order. This
gives Lazada better control over quality and customer experience.

In the marketplace model, Lazada earns revenues in three ways: 1) Commissions – this is
usually a % of the selling price of the item and varies by category – it varies in the range of
1-10% for electronics items, 3-10% for lifestyle items and 10-12% for fashion &
accessories. 2) Payment gateway charges – this is usually ~2% of the selling price 3)
fulfilment and shipping fees – these are charged if Lazada takes care of shipping and
fulfilment as described above.

Lazada recorded 167% YoY growth in its GMV in its recently reported 2015 results. Full
year average GMV crossed US$1bn. Net revenues grew at 78% YoY in 2015 and it
recorded an EBITDA loss of US$300mn.

Exhibit 71: Financials of Lazada


US$mn 2,013 2,014 2,015
GMV 95 384 1,025
% YoY n/a 304 167
Revenues 76 154 275
% YoY n/a 104 78
Adjusted EBITDA (59) (143) (297)
Cash position 252 198 75
Source: Jefferies, company data

page 36 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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Internet

21 April 2016

Tokopedia – Indonesia’s Taobao

Exhibit 72: Tokopedia - Snapshot


Founded 2009 Founder/CEO William Tanuwijaya, Leontinus Alpha Edison
Funding (US$mn) 248 Key Investors Sequoia Capital, SoftBank
Segment E-tailing Description Horizontal e-tailing
HQ Indonesia Regions Indonesia
Key Competitor(s) Lazada, Bukalapak, Elevenia, Blibli
Source: Jefferies, company data

Company background & Funding


Tokopedia was founded in 2009 and was named after the Indonesian word for shop,
‘toko’. The company was founded by Victor Fungkong, William Tanuwijaya and Leontinus
Alpha Edison and is headquartered in Jakarta. It sells across all key categories including
mobiles & electronics and fashion & accessories. It has raised multiple rounds of funding,
the most recent being US$147mn in April, 2016. Softbank and Sequoia invested in the
company in October, 2014. Other investors include East Ventures, NetPrice and
Cyberagent Ventures.

Business model

Tokopedia is primarily a C2C marketplace similar to Taobao of Alibaba. We understand


that Tokopedia does not charge a commission for listing or selling items through its
platform. It monetizes sales mainly through its ‘Gold Merchant’ and ‘TopAds’ schemes.
The Gold Merchant scheme allows merchants greater flexibility to manage their store on
the platform while TopAds offers better visibility amongst buyers. To facilitate the
transaction, Tokopedia operates an escrow system wherein the payment is forwarded to
the seller only after the buyer receives the goods.

According to media reports, Tokopedia currently has 300k merchants and processes
7.5mn transactions per month. We also understand that majority of the transactions
happen through mobile. It has over 100k app downloads on the Android platform.

Logistics, competition the key challenges

Logistics is a key challenge for Tokopedia especially given that Indonesia is an archipelago
and relatively under-developed infrastructure compared to Singapore and Malaysia. JNE is
a preferred logistics partner for Tokopedia on which it offers a 2% cashback on the price of
postage for each shipment. However Tokopedia deals with a number of other logistics
partners as well.

Competitive intensity has been rising in the e-tailing space in Indonesia with a number of
local and regional e-tailers such as Bukalapak, Lazada, Elevenia, Blibli as well as discussion
forums like Kaskus where a lot of C2C commerce happens.

page 37 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


Technology
Internet

21 April 2016

SingPost – E-commerce Logistics Driving Growth

Exhibit 73: SingPost - Snapshot


Funding (US$mn) 457 Key investors Alibaba
Segment Logistic Description E-commerce logistics, postal mails
HQ Singapore Regions Asia Pacific
Key Competitor(s) aCommerce, DHL, Pos Malaysia
Source: Jefferies, company data

Significance of e-commerce for SingPost


E-commerce related revenue now contributes a third of SingPost’s revenues and is a key
growth driver for the company. In 9MFY16 for instance e-commerce revenue grew 53%
YoY (with some inorganic contribution as well) vs. 14% growth for non-ecommerce
revenue. E-commerce has also helped SingPost significantly expand its regional reach with
overseas business now accounting for over 40% of its revenues.

Exhibit 74: E-commerce related revenues accounted for a Exhibit 75: E-commerce related revenues have been
third of SingPost’s revenues in 9MFY16 growing much faster for SingPost

Source: Jefferies, company data Source: Jefferies, company data

Initiatives in e-commerce logistics


SingPost has identified e-commerce as a key transformational initiative for the company. It
has been investing across the value chain. Two key subsidiaries in SingPost’s e-commerce
business are Quantium Solutions which works across warehousing, fulfilment and last
mile delivery and SP eCommerce which provides enterprise solutions.

In the mail segment, SingPost has developed an envelope called SmartPac Lite for e-
commerce items of up to 1kg. In the logistics segment, SingPost has made a number of
acquisitions and invested in logistics infrastructure and last mile capabilities to strengthen
its end-to-end integrated ecommerce logistics value chain. These include freight, customs
and regulations management; warehousing and fulfilment capabilities; last mile delivery
and returns; and ecommerce web services. In the retail & e-commerce segment, it has
rolled out a fully integrated end to end ecommerce fulfilment solution to help SMEs sell
online, scale and enhance productivity called ezyCommerce.

SingPost has also tied up with Alibaba, with the latter investing over US$450mn in
SingPost to help develop an e-commerce related logistics network in the region. SingPost
is also collaborating with Alibaba in various markets for last mile delivery resulting in
strong volume growth.

page 38 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


Technology
Internet

21 April 2016

VNG – Leading Internet Company in Vietnam

Exhibit 76: VNG - Snapshot


Founded 2004 Founder/CEO Hong Minh le & Bryan Pelz
Funding (US$mn) n/a Key Investors CyberAgent Ventures
Segment Entertainment Description Gaming, social n/w, messaging
HQ Vietnam Regions Vietnam
Key Competitor(s) Garena, Asiasoft Corp, PlayLab
Source: Jefferies, company data

Company background
VNG was founded in September, 2004, primarily as a gaming company under the name
VinaGame. In June 2005 it signed its first contract with Kingsoft to bring “Vo Lam Truyen
Ky” to Vietnam. In 2006, the company entered e-commerce through 123mua.vn. During
2006-08, it also developed a number of web products such as Zing Play, Zing Chat, Zing
Mp3 and Zing News all under the Zing brand. In 2009 it launched “Zing Me” a social
networking site. In 2H2012, VNG introduced its messaging app Zalo, which reached 2mn
users within 5 months of launch and 10mn users by March, 2014. In 2014, media reports
indicated that VNG sold its e-commerce site to FPT for a nominal amount. CyberAgent
Ventures is reported to have invested in VNG in a round in September, 2010.

Offerings across multiple segments


VNG is present across a wide spectrum of segments within the internet/e-commerce
space in Vietnam. We highlight some of its key offerings below.

1) Games & entertainment. VNG is one of the four main game publishers in the
Vietnamese market with online games like Vo Lam Truyen Ky, Kiem The, Phong Than as
well as casual games like Zing Speed, Zing Play, Boom Online and Gunny. Zing also offers
music streaming services (Zing mp3), provides news updates (Zing News) and TV shows
online (Zing TV).

2) Social networking & messaging. In this segment, VNG’s key offerings are Zalo, its
mobile messaging app and Zing Me, its social network which is focused on the games
offered by VNG

3) Software & applications. VNG has been developing a number of software


solutions applications mainly targeted at the Vietnamese market, since its early days. Key
amongst these are: 1) Cyber Station Manager (CSM) which is a free software for
managing Internet agencies. CSM is now the most popular managing software for
internet shops in Vietnam with over 60% of market share and over 2 million downloads
every day 2) Laban Key, a Vietnamese keyboard for mobile devices

4) E-commerce. VNG’s key offerings in e-commerce are its online payment platform
123Pay and movie ticket booking app.

page 39 of 49 Arya Sen, Equity Analyst, +91 22 4224 6122, asen@jefferies.com

Please see important disclosure information on pages 46 - 49 of this report.


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Internet

21 April 2016

Appendix-1: Private market funding in


ASEAN internet/e-commerce

Exhibit 77: Private market fund raisings in ASEAN internet/e-commerce


Date Company Segment HQ Amt raised Investors
(US$mn)
Apr-16 Lazada E-tailing SG 500 Alibaba
Apr-16 Tokopedia E-tailing ID 148 n/a
Mar-16 Garena Gaming SG 170 Khazanah Nasional Berhad
Mar-16 EZBUY E-tailing SG 20 CGC Capital, IDG Ventures, Vision Knight Capital
Mar-16 Medical Departures Classified TH 3 OPT SEA, Hubert Burda Media, CyberAgent Ventures, DMP VC
Mar-16 U-Hop Travel PH 7 Asian Alliance Investment Corporation, Philippine Corporation
Mar-16 Servicehero Services MA 3 Golden Gate Ventures, Cradle seed Ventures
Mar-16 Momo Payments VI 28 Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered Private Equity
Mar-16 Kurio Entertainment ID 5 Gunosy
Mar-16 iflix Entertainment MA 45 Sky, Emtek Group
Feb-16 Orami E-tailing ID 15 Velos Partners, Ardent Capital, Gobi Partners, SMDV
Feb-16 Tiki E-tailing VI 10 VNG Corporation
Feb-16 Elevenia E-tailing ID 50 SK Planet, XL Axiata
Jan-16 Eyeota Digital advertising SG 7 Global Brain, Infinity e.Ventures and Project A Ventures
Jan-16 Xfers Payments SG 3 BWB Ventures, Partech Ventures, Convergence Ventures +5
Dec-15 Vanitee Classified SG 4 Cosme, Garena, Ivan Lee, Luxasua, Robert Yap
Dec-15 Burpple Classified SG 6 SPH Media Fund, Tembusu Partners, Triumph Capital
Nov-15 kaodim Services MA 4 East Ventures,500 Startups, BEENEXT, Venturra Capital
Nov-15 Bhinneka E-tailing ID 22 Ideosource
Oct-15 Qraved Classified ID 8 GWC,M & Y Growth Partners, Toivo Annus,500 Startups, Convergence Ventures, Gobi Partners, Richmond Global
Oct-15 Honestbee Online grocery SG 15 Formation 8, Gideon Yu, Steve Chen, Owen Van Natta, Pejman Mar Ventures
Oct-15 PlayLab Gaming TH 5 Monk’s Hill Ventures
Oct-15 Hipvan E-tailing SG 3 Golden Gate Ventures, East Ventures, LionRock Capital, Toivo Annus and Wavemaker Partners
Sep-15 Happyfresh Online grocery ID 12 Vertex Ventures, Sinar Mas Digital Ventures , Asia Venture Group, Beenext, Ardent Capital, 500 Startups, and Cherry
Ventures
Sep-15 Migme Social network SG 10 Investor List not available
Aug-15 RedMart Online grocery SG 27 Garena, Softbank Ventures Korea, Visionnaire Ventures, and Eduardo Saverin
Aug-15 Grab Travel SG 350 Coatue, SoftBank, Tiger Global, China Investment Corp.
Aug-15 Yogrt Social network SG 3 Linear Venture, Centurian
Aug-15 Numoni Payments SG 5 OWW Capital Partners, Robert Yap
Jul-15 Qoo10 E-tailing SG 82 Singapore Press Holdings, eBay, Saban Capital Group, UVM 2 Venture Investments, Brookside Capital, Oak Investment
Partners
Jul-15 Fastacash Payments SG 15 Rising Dragon, UVM 2 Venture, Life.SREDA
Jul-15 Paktor Social network SG 8 convergence Ventures, Majuven and Vertex Ventures
Jul-15 Singapore Post Logistic SG 207 Alibaba
Jul-15 GlassesGroupGlobal E-tailing MA 3 Nova Founders Capital, Caixa Capital, Toivo Annus, Siegfried Drueker, Uwe Kolb, Vectr Ventures
Jul-15 Bizzy Digital advertising ID 3 Ardent Capital
Jun-15 Chope Classified SG 8 F&H Investor, NSI Venture, DSG Consumer Partners, Frontier Ventures, John Wu, Singapore Press Holdings
Jun-15 PropertyGuru Classified SG 129 Emtek, Square Peg Capital, TPG
Jun-15 ralai E-tailing ID 3 Beenos Plaza, CyberAgent Ventures & East Ventures
May-15 aCommerce E-commerce Logistics TH 5 Ardent Capital, Indonesian conglomerate Sinarmas, Inspire Ventures
Apr-15 DocDoc Classified SG 9 Hong Leong Financial Group, SparkLabs Global Ventures
Apr-15 iflix Entertainment MA 30 Catcha group
Apr-15 Ensogo E-tailing TH 27 Vipshop
Mar-15 Duriana E-tailing SG 3 econtext Asia and Beenos Asia
Mar-15 Zipmatch Classified PH 3 Monk’s Hill Ventures,500 Startups
Mar-15 Elevenia E-tailing ID 18 SK Planet, XL Axiata
Mar-15 Ensogo E-tailing TH 13 Ward Ferry Management, Vipshop
Mar-15 Ninja Logistics E-commerce Logistics SG 3 Monk’s Hill Ventures, Insas Berhad
Feb-15 Matahari Mall E-tailing ID 500 Lippo Group
Feb-15 Carmudi Classified PH 25 Tengelmann Ventures, HV Holtzbrinck Ventures, Asia Pacific Internet Group
Feb-15 Coc Coc Search VI 14 Hubert Burda Media
Jan-15 Tickled Media Social network SG 3 Hellmut Schutte, Tigris Capital, Vertes Ventures
Dec-14 Grab Travel SG 250 SoftBank
Nov-14 Lazada E-tailing SG 250 Temasek, Kinnevik, Rocket Internet, Verlinvest
Nov-14 Carousell Classified SG 6 Sequoia Capital, Rakuten Ventures, Golden Gate Ventures, 500 Startups, Darius Cheung
Nov-14 iCarsClub Travel SG 60 IDG Capital Partners and MorningSide Ventures
Oct-14 Grab Travel SG 65 Tiger Global
Oct-14 Gnum Social network SG 6 Tembusu Partners
Oct-14 Tokopedia E-tailing ID 100 SoftBank
Oct-14 AdNear Digital advertising SG 19 Canaan Partners, Sequoia Capital, Telstra Ventures (AVG), Global Brain Corporation
Sep-14 iMoney Classified MA 4 iSelect
Sep-14 bellabox E-tailing SG 3 Allure Media, Fairfax Digital Ventures
Aug-14 Urban Remedy E-tailing SG 5 venture51,science,slow ventures
Aug-14 NONSTOP games Gaming SG 3 Creandum, Lifeline Ventures
Jul-14 RedMart Online grocery SG 23 Garena, Softbank Ventures Korea, Visionnaire Ventures, and Eduardo Saverin

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Exhibit 77: Private market fund raisings in ASEAN internet/e-commerce


Date Company Segment HQ Amt raised Investors
(US$mn)
Jun-14 aCommerce E-commerce Logistics TH 11 Ardent Capital, Inspire Ventures, NTT DoCoMo, Sumitomo Corporation Equity Asia, Asia Pacific Capital, CyberAgent
Ventures, JL Capital, Sinar Mas Indonesia
Jun-14 Fastacash Payments SG 4 Kewalram Chanrai Group and Golden Orile Investments, Jungle Ventures, Spring SEEDS Capital, Funding the Future.
Jun-14 iCarsClub Travel SG 10 Sequoia Capital, Crystal STream , Xing Wang + 2
May-14 Grab Travel SG 15 GGV Capital, Vertex Ventures, Qunar.com
May-14 Singapore Post Logistic SG 250 Alibaba
Apr-14 IN2NITE E-tailing SG 3 IDG Ventures + undisclosed investors
Apr-14 Carmudi Classified PH 10 Tengelmann Ventures
Apr-14 Ookbee E-tailing TH 7 Transcosmos, InVent
Feb-14 ViSENZE Search SG 4 Rakuten Ventures, UOB Venture, Walden International
Feb-14 vinEcom E-tailing VI 50 Vingroup
Feb-14 JetRadar Travel TH 10 iTech Capital
Jan-14 RedMart Online grocery SG 5 Eduardo Saverin, Steve Melhuish, Jani Rautiainen, Meng Weng Wong, LionRock Capital (Hong Kong), Teng Wen Wee
Dec-13 aCommerce E-commerce Logistics TH 3 CyberAgent Ventures,NTT DOCOMO Ventures
Dec-13 Lazada E-tailing SG 250 Tesco, Verlinvest, Kinnevik, Access Industries
Dec-13 Zalora E-tailing SG 112 Access Industries, Scopia Capital, Rocket Internet, Len Blavatnik
Nov-13 ROKT Digital advertising SG 8 Lachlan Murdoch, Square Peg Capital, John Ho, Greg Roebuck
Nov-13 Clozette Social Network SG 3 Seed Ventures IV, Philip Private Equity
Nov-13 Berrybenka E-tailing ID 5 Transcosmos, GRE Ventures
Oct-13 M-DAQ Finance SG 12 Citi Ventures, GSR Ventures
Oct-13 Fastacash Payments SG 3 Spring SEEDS Capital, Jungle Ventures, Spring Singapore
Jun-13 Wego Travel SG 17 Crescent Group, Square Peg Capital, Tiger Global Management
Jun-13 Lazada E-tailing SG 100 Tengelmann Ventures, Summit Partners, HV Holtzbrinck Ventures, Investment AB Kinnevik, Verlinvest
May-13 Zalora E-tailing SG 100 Rocket Internet, Tengelmann Ventures, Investment AB Kinnevik, Summit Partners
May-13 Reebonz E-tailing SG 40 MediaCorp Singapore, GGV Capital, Matrix Capital, Intel Capital, Infocomm Investments
Mar-13 Chope Classified SG 3 Singapore Press Holdings
Mar-13 CtrlShift Digital advertising SG 3 Electric Sheep Capital and Digital Media Partners
Jan-13 Lazada E-tailing SG 20 Tengelmann Ventures
Jan-13 Momo Payments VI 6 Goldman Sachs
Dec-12 Lazada E-tailing SG 26 Summit Partners
Nov-12 AdNear Digital advertising SG 6 Canaan Partners, Sequoia Capital
Nov-12 Lazada E-tailing SG 40 Rocket Internet
Sep-12 iCarsAsia Classified MA LISTED IN AUSTRALIA STOCK EXCHANGE
Jul-12 UpToPromo Digital advertising TH 10 iTech Capital
Jan-12 MNC Shop E-tailing ID 6 GS Shop, PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk
Nov-11 Payoo Payments VI 3 NTT Data
Oct-11 Nubee Gaming SG 13 JAFCO
Oct-11 Affle Digital advertising SG 10 D2 Communication
Jan-11 Reebonz E-tailing SG 14 GGV Capital, Intel Capital
Source: Jefferies, company data

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Appendix-2: Singapore Start-up


Ecosystem
Compass, a leading solution for automated management reports, recently did a ranking
of the best start-up eco-systems around the world. Singapore ranked 10th globally (top 3
being Silicon valley, New York and Los Angeles) and the first in Asia (ahead of Bangalore
at 15th position). Singapore secured strong ratings for eco-system performance (11th),
funding (9th), market reach (9th) and start-up experience (9th), while it slipped
considerably on ability to get engineering talent (20th).

Exhibit 78: Singapore start-up ecosystem ranks top 10 globally


Rank Location Rank Location
1 Silicon Valley 11 Paris
2 New York 12 Sao Paulo
3 Los Angeles 13 Moscow
4 Boston 14 Austin
5 Tel Aviv 15 Bangalore
6 London 16 Sydney
7 Chicago 17 Toronto
8 Seattle 18 Vancouver
9 Berlin 19 Amsterdam
10 Singapore 20 Montreal
Source: Jefferies, Compass online survey
Overall though, Singapore is seen as a vibrant start-up ecosystem in Asia, with most
players targeting the Asean market having their HQ here. Over the years, Singapore has
developed a strong ecosystem of investment entities including accelerators, early stage
angel investors and VCs (series A and above). We have shown some of them in the chart
below, but there are many more who have set up bases in SG for start-up investments.

The government has also played an active role in incubating and seeding new start-ups
through industry regulators (IDA/ MDA), research agencies like AStar, private sector
industry bodies like ACE (Action Community for Entrepreneurship). Also GLCs like Singtel,
MediaCorp, DBS etc. have set-up venture capital funds to seed start-ups in their respective
sphere of influence.

Exhibit 79: Singapore start-up eco-system - some key players

VC (Early stage) VC (Series A and Above)


Jungle Ventures Sequoia Capital
Wavemaker Partners Intel Capital
GMO Venture Partners Singtel Innov8
Spring Seeds SPH Media Fund
Red Dot Ventures etc . Global Brain etc..

Accelerator Co- Working Space

JFDI BASH
Muru Digital The CO.
SPH Plug and Play Mettle Work
Startupbootcamp Smart Space
Rockstart etc. Woolf Works etc …

Source: Jefferies, industry data

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JTC Corp which is Singapore’s lead agency for developing industrial land and
infrastructure has identified One-North near Bueno Vista as the area for developing
knowledge-based industries in Singapore. Within this cluster, JTC Launchpad @OneNorth
has been identified as a cluster for developing new start-ups. JTC website shows that it
will eventually have over 300K sq.ft of space for start-ups with rents ranging within a
reasonable S$1.6-2.0psf. There are other private entities that are developing co-working
spaces for start-ups as seen in the chart above.

In December 2015, Singapore announced the setting up of a 30-member committee


called the Committee on the Future Economy (CFE) to position Singapore well for the
future – to be a vibrant and resilient economy with sustainable growth that creates value
and opportunities for all. The CFE will be helmed by Minister for Finance Mr Heng Swee
Keat and his deputy chairman, Minister for Trade and Industry (Industry) Mr S Iswaran.
They will lead a 30-member Steering Committee. The members come from different
industries, operating in both global and domestic markets and enterprises both large and
small and the committee recommendations are expected to be submitted by end of 2016.

Singapore functions as a testing bed, launch pad for Asean start-ups


With a strong support eco-system for funding and tax/other incentives in place, it’s no
surprise that many start-ups targeting the Asean market look at Singapore as their base/
HQ. Singapore itself is a very good test market for launching an online business due to its
1) High level of disposable income, 2) High internet/ smartphone penetration, 3)
Population density which makes fulfilment logistics easier, 4) Good payment networks
including high credit card penetration and propensity to use it for online purchases.

Exhibit 80: Singapore is an ideal test market for online platforms


Total population (m) 5.4 high population density, logistics easier
Disposable income per hh (USD) 97,000 One of the highest globally
Credit cards per adult 2.7 higher than US
Internet penetration 87%
Smartphone penetration 82%
Average internet speed (MBps) 8.4
Retail ecommerce (USDbn) 4.4 up nearly 4x since 2012, rapid growth
Percentage of Ecommerce on mobile 50% shift to mobile already taking place
Source: Jefferies, IDA
Many of the start-ups we have spoken to see Singapore as an ideal testing bed for an
online business, with successful business models then going on to launch across Asean
using local language/ customised interfaces for each country. This allows the start-ups to
achieve scale by tapping into the larger addressable markets of the broader Asean region.

Smart Nation, an initiative that will boost growing e-commerce business


The Singapore Government has already started building the world’s first Smart Nation by
harnessing technology to create an ecosystem which will not only provide better living
standards to individuals but also provide businesses to use this infrastructure for better
growth prospects. The Smart Nation initiative adopts a people-centric approach by
rallying citizens, industries, research institutions, and the government to co-create
innovative solutions. The Government is responsible for laying the foundation, including
building the infrastructure, facilitating innovation and creating the framework for
contribution. Government agencies will also share extensive real-time data in the public
domain.

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Exhibit 81: Smart Nation Initiatives proposed


Key initiative Objective
Bring citizens, the government and industry players together to identify issues, co-develop solutions, prototype
Smart Nation PMO Office ideas and deploy them effectively
This program invites top data scientists, technologists and engineers to help the Singapore government deliver
Smart Nation Fellowship Programme meaningful digital and data solutions to improve the lives of citizens.
As part of efforts to improve public services, a number of Apps have been developed to facilitate communication
Mobile Application between the public and the providers of public service
This program offers opportunity to budding technologists to ideate and develop solutions to tackle real-world
Hackathons challenges
Works with corporations, universities and professional accelerators to bring promising tech start-ups to accelerator
Infocomm Investment programmes
Smart Mobility Provide greater access to real-time transport information so that citizens can better plan their journeys
A Smart HDB Town Framework has been developed to guide the development of Smart HDB Towns across 4 key
Smart Living dimensions; Smart Planning, Smart Environment, Smart Estate and Smart Living
Source: Jefferies, IDA
SG govt acting to facilitate cross border E-commerce activities
Of late, the Singapore Government has entered into agreements with different
international organizations to facilitate cross border trade and increase the reach of
regional players:

• In Feb 2016, the Trans Pacific Partnership was signed among twelve Pacific Rim
countries - Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico,
New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.

• In Nov 2015, Singapore agency IE (International Enterprise) entered into an


agreement with the International and Commercial Bank of China to promote cross-
border B2B and B2C trades.

• In July 2015, IE announced a partnership with US based Amazon, China based T-mall
and Malaysia based Lelong, to provide local SMEs with easier access to global and
regional online platforms.

Singapore has a relatively open labour market and many incentives for new
start-ups
Singapore Government has taken several initiatives on the start-up front to attract foreign
individuals to incorporate their companies here. Below are some of the programs offered
by the Government:

Singapore Entre Pass: Singapore is one of the first countries to launch special visa
application for entrepreneurs. The program was launched way back in 2004 and offers
express entry to individuals who are keen to set up their companies here. However, there
was a revision to this program in September 2013 whereby the eligibility created was
made tougher to prevent illegal immigration via this route.

Government-aided equity financing schemes: The government co-sponsors


funding requirements at various stages, from seed funding to growth, for start-ups based
in Singapore.

Exhibit 82: Government-sponsored equity financing schemes for start-ups


Government Program Scheme
Co-invests in commercially viable Singapore-based start-ups, along with independent third-party
SPRING Startup Enterprise Development Scheme investor(s), matching dollar-for-dollar up to a maximum of S$1 million
Co-invests in growth-oriented, innovative Singapore-based start-ups along with pre-approved business
Business Angels Scheme angels matching dollar-for-dollar up to a maximum of S$1.5 million
Co-funding scheme where selected venture capital firms who raise at least S$10 million from third-party
Early-Stage Venture Funding Scheme investors will receive dollar-for-dollar matching from the NRF up-to a maximum of S$10 million
Source: Jefferies
Cash grants: The government offers cash grants to start-ups based in Singapore
through various sponsored programs such as ACE Start-ups Scheme; Technology
Enterprise Commercialization Scheme; iSTART:ACE Scheme; iSPRINT; ComCare Enterprise
Fund. The cash grants offered through each of these schemes range from S$50K - S$500K.

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Business incubator schemes: The incubator schemes offered by Singapore


Government help start-ups with guidance to launch their businesses apart from offering
initial funding. There are currently five incubation programs either directly sponsored or
co-sponsored by the Government - i.Jam Micro Funding Scheme; NRF Technology
Incubation Scheme; Incubator Development Program; Incubator for Disruptive
Enterprises and Start-ups (IDEAS) Fund; Fast-Track Environmental and Water Technologies
Incubator Scheme (Fast-Tech)

Tax Incentive Scheme: The government offers tax benefits for start-ups as well as other
businesses. Any new company incorporated in Singapore is offered these tax benefits:

• Initial 3 years: No tax on S$100,000 of taxable income; 8.5% (partial exemption) tax
rate on the next S$200,000 of taxable income. The taxable income above S$300,000
is charged at the normal headline corporate tax rate of 17%.

• 4th year onwards: 8.5% tax rate on taxable income of up to S$300,000 per annum.
The taxable income above S$300,000 will be charged at the normal headline
corporate tax rate of 17%.

Apart from the above tax incentives, the government also offers other tax benefits for
corporates who want to expand their business - Development and Expansion Incentive;
Investment Allowance, Pioneer Incentive Scheme, Productivity and Innovation Credit
(PIC) Scheme.

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Analyst Certification:
I, Arya Sen, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject
company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report.
I, Abhijit Attavar, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
I, Ranjeet Jaiswal, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
Registration of non-US analysts: Arya Sen is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the NASD Rule 2241 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Abhijit Attavar is employed by Jefferies Singapore Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the NASD Rule 2241 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Ranjeet Jaiswal is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the NASD Rule 2241 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst.
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives
compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority
of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.

For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/
Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.

Explanation of Jefferies Ratings


Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.
Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.
Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month
period.
The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more
within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average
security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For
Underperform rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus
20% or less within a 12-month period.
NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/
or Jefferies policies.
CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company.
NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company.
Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities
regulations prohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations.
Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions
on the investment merits of the company are provided.

Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total
return over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market
risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF,
P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns,
and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.

Jefferies Franchise Picks


Jefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month period. Stock selection
is based on fundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward
ratio and investment themes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number
can vary depending on analyst recommendations for inclusion. Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for
inclusion changes, the stock has met its desired return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in
the bottom quartile of S&P stocks will continue to have a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended
to represent a recommended portfolio of stocks and is not sector based, but we may note where we believe a Pick falls within an investment style
such as growth or value.

Risks which may impede the achievement of our Price Target


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This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. As such, the
financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions based
upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Past performance of
the financial instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. The price, value of, and
income from, any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report can rise as well as fall and may be affected by changes in economic, financial
and political factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than the investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may
adversely affect the price of, value of, or income derived from the financial instrument described in this report. In addition, investors in securities such
as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Other Companies Mentioned in This Report
• AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AAREIT SP: SGD1.35, HOLD)
• Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP: SGD2.50, BUY)
• Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP: SGD1.47, HOLD)
• Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP: SGD1.03, BUY)
• MobileOne (M1 SP: SGD2.48, HOLD)
• Singapore Telecom (ST SP: SGD3.95, BUY)
• Starhub (STH SP: SGD3.34, UNDERPERFORM)
Distribution of Ratings
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY 1169 53.70% 327 27.97%
HOLD 848 38.95% 163 19.22%
UNDERPERFORM 160 7.35% 17 10.62%

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Other Important Disclosures


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