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The chances were slim that Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf
would accept the invitation from his counterpart Ajit Kuma Doval to a regional
meet of security tsars in New Delhi to discuss the situation in Taliban-ruled
Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, the dismissive manner in which Yusuf spoke publicly about it is a matter
of surprise.
When asked about the Indian invitation, Yusuf replied in a huff, 'I will not go. A
spoiler cannot play the role of peacemaker.'
Curiously, the Pakistan foreign office also conveyed scepticism earlier but
diplomatically, when the spokesman said the Indian invite needed 'to be viewed in the
overall context of Pakistan-India relations, and the regional situation.'
The Pakistan foreign office spokesman also doubted Delhi's intentions. He said, 'With
regard to the conference on Afghanistan, it seems India is trying to find some
relevance in the context of Afghanistan.'
'As you are aware, various other regional mechanisms and processes are in place,
including the one initiated by Pakistan itself, involving the neighbouring countries of
Afghanistan, the first meeting was held in Islamabad in September and the second
ministerial meeting was held in Tehran.'
India faces acute regional isolation and conceivably the policymakers felt that a
conference would help navigate a pathway out of the current impasse. Isn't that what
diplomacy is about?
As things stand, there is a likelihood of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan attending the Delhi
conference.
1
The Indian ambassador publicly stated the Indian expectation that Russian Security
Council chief Nikolai Patrushev will attend the conference.
For Moscow, Tashkent and Dushanbe the acceptance of the invitation is a mark of
their friendly ties with India.
What isolates India is its quasi-alliance with the US, which increasingly has a vector
on Afghanistan.
In the region itself, there is deep distrust about the US intentions and India's close
association with the US at foreign-minister level regarding Afghanistan is now in full
public view.
President Putin may visit India in December for the annual Russian-Indian summit,
which traditionally witnesses the finalisation of some mega arms deals.
But this is anything but mercantilism. The US-India-Russia triangle is also in play.
The atmosphere in the Beltway is so very friendly toward India nowadays that there is
a concerted move by US lawmakers to grant waiver from CAATSA for Delhi's
defence purchases from Russia, such as the S-400 missile defence system.
The rationale is sound: If India, a quasi ally of the US, is boosting its military
capability vis-a-vis China, that works fine, and, who knows, it may even cause some
friction incrementally in the Russian-Chinese equations.
To be sure, with such strong defence cooperation at the core of the relationship,
Russia has an advantage since it is willing to transfer cutting edge military technology
to India -- unlike the US -- be it for hypersonic missiles, nuclear submarines or the S-
500 system (which the US cannot match.)
2
Suffice to say, the inaugural meeting of the Russian-Indian '2+2' ministerial in
Moscow later this month just weeks before Putin's visit to Delhi promises to be
eventful -- as it also coincides with a similar US-Indian '2+2' ministerial in
Washington.
Now that Moscow has successfully blocked any US military presence in any form in
any of the countries in Central Asia, it is in a strong position to leverage its influence
with the Taliban government.
On the other hand, if the Taliban government collapses or if Afghanistan slides into
civil war and anarchical conditions, Russia will still be a serious player, given its
tested capabilities in waging hybrid wars.
From the Indian perspective, therefore, Delhi's most consequential partnership over
the Afghan problem will only be with Russia.
Put differently, Doval's initiative to hold a regional conference will have profound
implications with Patrushev attending it.
There are outlandish notions about the Taliban in influential quarters in India.
The chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in India (almost the
same as Pakistan's population), fantasised on Monday about a Balakot-style Indian
air strike on Taliban targets!
True, the Indian elite have a jaundiced view about the Taliban partly out of ignorance,
partly as political expediency.
3
Nonetheless, Pakistan should have accepted the Indian invitation even if its belief is
well-founded that Delhi has been acting as 'spoiler' in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should develop a sense of pragmatism that any serious player in the great
game would have.
On Tuesday, November 2, the Russian side disclosed that CIA chief William Burns
recently flew into Moscow secretly to meet with Patrushev.
And this is at a time when storm clouds are gathering in the Black Sea and public
reports are in circulation showing military trains and truck convoys moving tanks and
missiles in Russia's southwest near Ukraine.
The terrible beauty of Doval's initiative is that it is all about a new journey rather than
about a set compass pointing toward a pre-determined destination.
Pakistan would have had nothing to lose, perhaps it might have stood to gain
something, somewhere along the line.
Perhaps, Yusuf could have proposed a similar gathering in Islamabad. Trust Doval to
have accepted his invite.
Ambassador M K BHADRAKUMAR