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Home > Israel: An 'Underwater' Nuclear Power (Thanks to German Submarines)

May 14, 2019 Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: Israel, Military,

Technology, World, Nuclear Weapons

Israel: An 'Underwater'
Nuclear Power (Thanks to
German Submarines)
A state-of-the-art nuclear deterrent? 
by Sebastien Roblin

The 2,400 ton Dolphin 2 model is based on the state-of-the-art Type 212
submarine, which features Air-Independent Propulsion technology and swim
faster at twenty-five knots. While diesel submarines rely on noisy air-
consuming diesel generators which require the submarine to regularly
surface or snorkel, AIP-powered submarines can swim underwater very
quietly at low speeds for weeks at a time.

(This first appeared last year.)

Israel has never officially admitted to possessing nuclear weapons.

Unofficially, Tel Aviv wants everyone to know it has them, and doesn’t
hesitate to make thinly-veiled references to its willingness to use them if
confronted by an existential threat. Estimates on the size of Tel Aviv’s
nuclear stockpile range from 80 to 300 nuclear weapons, the latter number
exceeding China’s arsenal.

Originally, Israel’s nuclear forces relied on air-dropped nuclear bombs and

Jericho ballistic missiles. For example, when Egyptian and Syrian armies
attacked Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, a squadron of eight Israeli
F-4 Phantom jets loaded with nuclear bombs was placed on alert by Prime
Minister Golda Meir, ready to unleash nuclear bombs on Cairo and
Damascus should the Arab armies break through.

Though Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, Tel Aviv is
preoccupied by the fear that an adversary might one day attempt a first
strike to destroy its nuclear missiles and strike planes on the ground before
they can retaliate. Currently, the only hostile states likely to acquire such a
capability are Iran or Syria.

To forestall such a strategy, Israeli has aggressively targeted missile and

nuclear technology programs in Iraq, Syria and Iran with air raids, sabotage
and assassination campaigns. However, it also has developed a second-
strike capability—that is, a survivable weapon which promises certain
nuclear retaliation no matter how effective an enemy’s first strike.

Most nuclear powers operate nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines

which can spend months quietly submerged deep underwater and at any
moment unleash ocean-spanning ballistic missiles to rain apocalyptic
destruction on an adversary’s major centers. Because there’s little chance of
finding all of these subs before they fire, they serve as one hell of a
disincentive to even think about a first strike.

But nuclear-powered submarines and SLBMs are prohibitively expensive

for a country with the population of New Jersey—so Israeli found a more
affordable alternative.

Berlin’s Unconventional Apology

During the 1991 Gulf War, it emerged that German scientists and firms had
played a role in dispersing ballistic missile and chemical weapons
technology to various Arab governments—technology which aided Saddam
Hussein in bombarding Israel with Scud missiles. This in fact was long-
running sore point: in the early 1960s, Israeli agents even carried out
assassination attempts, kidnappings and bombings targeting German
weapons scientists working on behalf of Arab governments.

Chancellor Helmut Kohl hatched a plan to simultaneously compensate

Israel for the damages, while generating business for German shipbuilders
suffering a downturn due to post-Cold War defense cuts. Starting in the
1970s, German shipbuilder HDW began churning Type 209 diesel electric
submarines for export, with nearly 60 still operational around the globe.
One Type 209, the San Luis, managed to ambush Royal Navy vessels twice
during the Falkland War, though it failed to sink any ship due to the
defective torpedoes.

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Kohl offered to fully-subsidize the construction of two enlarged Type 209s,

designated the Dolphin-class, as well as cover 50 percent of the cost of a
third boat in 1994. The Dolphins displaced 1,900-tons while submerged,
measured 57-meters long and are manned by a crew of 35—though they can
accommodate up to ten special forces personnel. These entered service
1999–2000 as the INS Dolphin, Leviathan and Tekumah (“Revival”).
Each Dolphin came equipped with six regular tubes for firing 533-
millimeter DM2A4 heavyweight fiber-optic guided torpedoes and Harpoon
anti-ship missiles—as well as four 650-millimeter mega-sized tubes, which
are rare in modern submarines. These tubes can be used to deploy naval
commandos for reconnaissance and sabotage missions, which have played
a major role in Israeli submarine operations.

However, the plus-size torpedo tubes have a useful additional function:

they can accommodate especially large submarine-launched cruise missiles
(SLCM)—missiles large enough to carry a nuclear warhead. While a ballistic
missile arcs into space traveling at many times the speed of sound, cruise
missiles fly much slower and skim low over the earth’s surface.

In the 1990s the United States declined to provide Israel with submarine-
launched Tomahawk cruise missiles due to the rules of the Missile
Technology Control Regime prohibiting transfer of cruise missile with a
range exceeding 300 miles.

Instead, Tel Aviv went ahead and developed their own. In 2000, U.S. Navy
radars detected test launches of Israeli SLCMs in the Indian Ocean that
struck a target 930 miles away. The weapon is generally believed to be the
Popeye Turbo—an adaptation of a subsonic air-launched cruise missile that
can allegedly carry a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. However, the SLCM’s
characteristics are veiled in secrecy and some sources suggest a different
missile type entirely is used. An Israeli Dolphin submarine may have struck
the Syrian port of Latakia with a conventional cruise missile in 2013 due to
reports of a shipment of Russian P-800 anti-ship missiles.
Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu then purchased three more
German submarines, arousing considerable controversy as many felt
additional boats were unnecessary. In 2012, Der Spiegel published an
expose detailing how German engineers were well-aware of the Dolphin 2’s
intended role as nuclear-weapon delivery system, arousing some
controversy with the public, as Chancellor Merkel supposedly agreed to the
sale in exchange for unrealized promises from Netanyahu to adopt a more
conciliatory policy towards the Palestinians. Israel has nonetheless received
two of the Dolphin 2s, the Rahav (‘Neptune’) and Tanin (‘Crocodile’) with the
Dakar expected in 2018 or 2019.

The 2,400 ton Dolphin 2 model is based on the state-of-the-art Type 212
submarine, which features Air-Independent Propulsion technology and
swim faster at twenty-five knots. While diesel submarines rely on noisy air-
consuming diesel generators which require the submarine to regularly
surface or snorkel, AIP-powered submarines can swim underwater very
quietly at low speeds for weeks at a time.

This not only means they are stealthier sea-control platforms, but makes
them more viable for lengthy nuclear deterrence patrols. Currently, the
Chinese AIP-powered Type 32 Qing-class is the only AIP-powered
submarine in service armed with ballistic missiles.

However, as fellow TNI writer Robert Farley points out, there are
geographic obstacles that diminish the practicality of Israel’s sea-based
nuclear deterrence. For now, there is only one intended target: Iran, a
country which lies hundreds of miles away from Israel. While Tehran lies
barely within the supposed 930-mile range of an Israeli submarine
deployed from their base in Haifa into the Mediterranean Sea, the missiles
would have to spend over an hour overflying Syria and Iraq, posing
navigational and survivability challenges.

A closer avenue for attack would lie in the Persian Gulf, but this would
involve transiting the submarines through the Suez Canal (controlled by
Egypt), around Africa (impractically far for the Dolphin-class), or stationing
some at the naval base at Eilat, which faces the Gulf of Aqaba on the
southern tip of Israel and is surrounded by Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
In short, deploying Israeli submarines to Iran’s southern flank would
require some degree of cooperation and logistical support from other
Middle Eastern states that might not be forthcoming in a crisis scenario.

Farley is probably correct in arguing that the Israel’s nuclear-tipped SLCMs

are less practical than Tel Aviv’s other nuclear-delivery platforms. For that
matter, Israel doesn’t currently face any adversaries with nuclear
capabilities to deter against. However, like the idea of second-strike
capability in general, the threat of sea-launched nukes may be more
intended political weapon than one strictly intended for its military
effectiveness.

Sébastien Roblin holds a master’s degree in conflict resolution from

Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace
Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee
resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security
and military history for War Is Boring.
Source URL: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-underwater-nuclear-power-thanks-german-submarines-57517